The Mets have in my opinion played far better than expected so far. I mean I never thought Pelfrey would pitch as well as he has so far and the bullpen would have been so good with pitchers like Takahashi to name just one or that the catchers would be contributing as much offensively as they have so far.
All good things indeed that deserves to be enjoyed but a word of caution Mets fans. Today on Metsblog Michael Baron posted that the Mets are on pace for 91 wins. Now he admits that “paces can change really quick, and a lot of things can happen and there’s a long way to go” and I am sure we can all agree with that.
Baron goes on to point out the qualities he sees in this team and they are all good reasons to hope for a better 2010 than 2009 but remember the Mets were also on pace to win 91 games last season. The Mets on Sunday May 10 2009 beat the Pirates 8-4 they were 17-13 in 1st place with a 1 game lead on the 2nd place Marlins and a 1.5 game lead on the 3rd place Phillies. We all know how the season ended.
I am not saying we are doomed to repeat history but that when you start looking at paces remember what Baron said, “paces can change really quick, and a lot of things can happen and there’s a long way to go“.
22 comments
johan4cy
5/9/2010-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
As long as the players stay on the field rather than the DL, we should be just fine. I know that every team faces injuries and that it’s usually no excuse but I think that if the team stayed healthy last year, they could have been in the playoffs or at least close to it.
Mr North Jersey
5/9/2010-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
In case you are curious the last time the Mets were at .500 or better in 2009 was on July 2nd.
They were 39-39 and 1 game behind the tied for 1st place Phillies and Marlins.
One can only wonder if we can improve on that in 2010. See you on July 2nd.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/standings.cgi?date=2009-07-02
GravediggerHebner
5/9/2010-12:11pm at 12:11 pm (UTC -4)
No offense to Mr. Baron or Mr. NJ but comparing the historically unprecedented injury-plagued 2009 to anything seems to me to be even more specious than discussions of pace.
GravediggerHebner
5/9/2010-12:15pm at 12:15 pm (UTC -4)
Starlin Castro is on pace to hit 66 home runs and drive in 396 runs.
Mr North Jersey
5/9/2010-12:20pm at 12:20 pm (UTC -4)
Mr North Jersey
5/9/2010-12:18pm at 12:18 pm (UTC -4)
You are not wrong to say that but I will tell you in the sense that when discussing paces history shows a lot can happen between now and then and you need only look to last season for proof. It is a reminder to keep all things in perspective.
GravediggerHebner
5/9/2010-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
I agree completely with what I think is the overall point, which I believe is “just because the Mets are on pace to win 91 games doesn’t mean they will (but doesn’t mean they won’t either).”
I just don’t personally feel that the 2009 season is a viable comparison point for other seasons given how unique in baseball history it was.
Had pretty much any season in Met history but 2009 been used to illuminate the point I probably would’ve just typed “agreed” in the comments and moved on. But that is based on my own strong belief that 2009 was very unusual. Not everyone agrees with that and those that don’t may have no issue with the 2009 comparison.
Mr North Jersey
5/9/2010-12:39pm at 12:39 pm (UTC -4)
I am pretty sure if I had combed back further it would provide many other times that the Mets got off to even better starts only to fall way short.
In retrospect maybe I should of provided more seasons but felt that using last season would suffice in showing to be careful when discussing paces.
I agree with “just because the Mets are on pace to win 91 games doesn’t mean they will (but doesn’t mean they won’t either)”.
GravediggerHebner
5/9/2010-12:53pm at 12:53 pm (UTC -4)
Not sure how relevant it is but I periodically remind myself that in 1986 the Mets after 5 games had lost 3 in a row, were a game under .500 and in 4th place.
metsfan4decades
5/9/2010-12:12pm at 12:12 pm (UTC -4)
You can use stats to project all you want but as we all saw last year, you can predict with any kind of accuracy how the season will play out.
As I’ve been saying recently, I’m done making any kind of predictions – especially this far out. I just want to see them playing crisp baseball, getting that timely hit, getting quality pitching. It’s obvious but if they can keep that up, we’ll be in contention all season. And nothing is more fun than when we’re in contention.
Today’s game, on paper, should be advantage Giants. With Ollie on the mound though anything can happen. And anything usually does….
metsfan4decades
5/9/2010-1:01pm at 1:01 pm (UTC -4)
obviously should have read ‘CAN’T predict with any kind of accuracy.
CaseStreet
5/9/2010-12:21pm at 12:21 pm (UTC -4)
Come on. Once beltran hit the dl leaving wright as the last guy standing, thie team went down hill.
This year, beltran us the only one out while were getting good production from the 6 to 8 hitters. The team can only get better with beltran hopefully coming back and Reyes, wright and bay playing better than they have.
This is not 2009 and shouldn’t be comparing 2010 to 2009
Mr North Jersey
5/9/2010-12:25pm at 12:25 pm (UTC -4)
Clearly you missed where i said “I am not saying we are doomed to repeat history”.
No one is saying this is 2009 it is used to only expand on the idea of alot can happen between now and then and you only need to look as far as least season if you don’t agree.
rustyjr
5/9/2010-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
I agree with case – I guess in a optimist at heart
stickguy
5/9/2010-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
Buzzkill
rustyjr
5/9/2010-12:37pm at 12:37 pm (UTC -4)
Btw thanks for proof reading my column stick – I was too tired to catch those 2 errors – I feel line ramon Martinez !
rustyjr
5/9/2010-12:45pm at 12:45 pm (UTC -4)
Btw mike piazza said he wanted to go into tge hof as a met
Mr North Jersey
5/9/2010-12:49pm at 12:49 pm (UTC -4)
That is nice but I think he no longer has a say on that.
I may be mistaken but I believe the way they decide it is when did he become a Hall Of Famer while with the Dodgers or Mets?
GravediggerHebner
5/9/2010-12:57pm at 12:57 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t know the mechanics of how the decision is made but I do know it’s made by the HOF, not the player.
When Piazza re-signed with the Mets he was quoted in the NY Times as saying he hoped to go into the HOF as a Met. I remember because I cut the quote out of the paper and taped it to the wall above my bedroom closet. It was so small that years later when I moved out of that house I failed to notice it taped there and left it behind. I wonder what the next person who lived there did with it? I know they were Red Sox fans so they probably just threw it away.
Hazmet
5/9/2010-1:07pm at 1:07 pm (UTC -4)
Seeing Lincecum warming up I finally recalled what his complexion reminds me of:
Think Keanu Reeves as Neo in the Matrix when he get’s unplugged from the power grid pod.
rustyjr
5/9/2010-1:13pm at 1:13 pm (UTC -4)
He reminds me of Wiley wiggins of dazed & confused lol u gotta love Keith
joed1
5/9/2010-1:26pm at 1:26 pm (UTC -4)
Nice catch on the similarity, but here’s how I feel about it.
In 2009 whe we were at 17-13, we went in with huge expectations, there was a feeling of impending doom and things unravelled quickly almost as if on cue.
This season expectations are much lower and there’s a sense that we’re battling, overcoming, and not giving up. We’re not firing on all cylinders, but you get the feeling that we’re getting there. We ditched that black cloud that had been over our heads, and the Phillies don’t seem nearly as invincible as they did last season despite the last series.
All arrows are pointing up.