Frenchy, everyone loved Old Yeller too but we all know how that ended.
I was doing some reading this morning and thought about Frenchy. Michael Baron mentioned that it’s hard to break out of a slump when you swing at the first pitch. That is very true. I wonder if he would benefit from a forced change of approach? Perhaps a lineup change that forces it? What about this?
Reyes
Frenchy
Wright
Davis
Bay
Pagan
Castillo
Barajas
Bear with me on this one.
- Reyes returns to the lead off spot so he wont be “Crushed” anymore.
- Frenchy moves to the 2nd spot and is told you HAVE to give Reyes a chance to steal and your job is to make contact. Don’t do it and the Animal is coming for you.
- Wright, Davis, Bay just makes sense now.
- Now the interesting twist. Take this Manuel. Batting Pagan 6th essentially turns him into a 2nd lead off hitter with Castillo as the get’em over guy and Barajas as the driv’em in guy. I know it would seem strange to have Castillo bat 7th but I like it because it gets him on in front of someone who can drive him in instead of the pitcher.
Thoughts?
165 comments
njstuckintx
5/14/2010-9:05am at 9:05 am (UTC -4)
The rationale makes sense. Still not sure I would roll that way, but Jerry’s tried almost every think-able lineup so far. What’s one more?
CaseStreet
5/14/2010-9:05am at 9:05 am (UTC -4)
Where’s the part on the Animal coming for Frenchy?
As far as your lineup, it’s crazy enough it just might work.
Actually it’s just crazy. No way you put Frenchy’s .295 OBP hitting 2nd and Castillo’s .360 OBP hitting 7th.
trs86
5/14/2010-9:24am at 9:24 am (UTC -4)
Frenchy moves to the 2nd spot and is told you HAVE to give Reyes a chance to steal and your job is to make contact. Don’t do it and the Animal is coming for you.
metsfan4decades
5/14/2010-9:29am at 9:29 am (UTC -4)
If they start platooning Franceour and Carter, that in itself might make Frenchy try some adjustments. No one wants to lose their job….
trs86
5/14/2010-9:43am at 9:43 am (UTC -4)
My hope is that Beltran returns in June. That would force Frenchy to make some adjustments too.
udontmesswthejohan
5/14/2010-9:11am at 9:11 am (UTC -4)
“he doesn’t even give himself a chance to bust out of this slump because he swings at everything, whether it’s in or out of the strikezone, and before you know it, he’s out of the at bat…”
I’m not so sure he’s arguing that it has to do with swinging at the first pitch per se as much as it has to do with his overall pitch selection. You shouldn’t be swinging at bad pitches no matter where you are hitting.
As far as first pitch swinging though, I think you could argue that it is a better way to getting out of a slump in that if the pitcher knows you are struggling, he is more apt to groove a first pitch fastball. Additionally, it takes the guess work out of it. Many times a slump manifests itself because a hitter is thinking too much and then gets into bad habits. The less time you are in the box and just reacting, the better IMO when you are in a slump.
Either way, you can’t swing at pitches that you can’t get good wood on.
trs86
5/14/2010-9:21am at 9:21 am (UTC -4)
Problem is that now pitchers know that he will swing at anything first pitch and are giving him nothing to hit and getting ahead 0-1.
udontmesswthejohan
5/14/2010-9:46am at 9:46 am (UTC -4)
Right, but that’s going to be a problem at any spot in the order. Doesn’t matter where he hits. The solution is a simple one, i.e. be more selective with what he swings at. The exectuion on the other hand is whole other ball of wax.
The drill they talked about earlier in the year in which Jerry threw him BP and told him to swing at everything no matter where pitched, and then told him, “ok bottom of ninth 7th game of the WS, be selective”, seemed like a great idea. maybe they need to get back to that.
trs86
5/14/2010-9:48am at 9:48 am (UTC -4)
Maybe, obviously Hojo was given a lot of credit last year for “fixing” him so now Hojo has to take the blame for him sliding back.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-9:56am at 9:56 am (UTC -4)
I think Hojo can be blamed for a lot of thing. He does have really long leash.
But how many times do you see guys swinging at first pitch? Even last night, 9th inning with Luis on 2B, why can’t you take as much pitches as possible to give your team a chance. Who knows Nunez could’ve thrown a wild pitch.
Here’s what Reyes/Bay/Wright did with first pitch
Reyes – foul ball
Bay – GB
Wright – foul ball
I mean c’mon. There’s something wrong here. I’ve been saying over and over. It’s good to be aggressive in your approach, but swinging at first pitch no matter what the situation is and what the pitches are, is just stupid.
QnsNative718
5/14/2010-9:59am at 9:59 am (UTC -4)
Bay’s AB had anxiety written all over it. The dude has been struggling and instead of working the count went for the first ball that seemed hittable. No confidence.
trs86
5/14/2010-10:01am at 10:01 am (UTC -4)
Agreed and why the hell would you ever BUNT on the first pitch? Makes no sense. If you can’t get the bunt down 0-1 then you should not be bunting anyway. See Reyes.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-10:08am at 10:08 am (UTC -4)
agreed. I’m not sure if it was Jerry’s decision to bunt there, but it was pretty stupid to
1)bunt your #3 hitter
2)you know how Reyes bunts, not well
3)why are you only thinking of getting 1 run in at that point? Reyes is perfectly capable of making a single into a double and is a serious threat on the bases. so.. why don’t you want him to get on base?
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
If I were the opposing pitcher, I would never throw a first pitch strike to any of the Mets hitters. Or throw something that they would roll over for a GB.
I mean you throw them a pitch that somewhat resembles a strike, they’ll swing at it. So a breaking pitch or change up that will bounce would do the trick there.
Joe Mauer, as great hitter that he is, he rarely swings at first pitch. I think if you looked at all the great hitters out there, I bet you they don’t swing at first pitches. I mean why can’t Hojo/Jerry realize this?
udontmesswthejohan
5/14/2010-10:21am at 10:21 am (UTC -4)
Well, you may be right. I’ve always felt that the hitting coach really doesn’t have much to do with the success of the hitters once they step in the box, but at this point it’s obvious that these guys aren’t performing up to their capabilities. Unfortunately, HOJO may have to take the fall for that. That’s life as a professional coach though.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
But why can’t Hojo advice these guys. Embed in their heads. “Don’t swing at the first pitch, don’t swing at the first pitch…”
But obviously when you are a career .249 hitter, it would be hard to say that.
Kingman 26
5/14/2010-9:11am at 9:11 am (UTC -4)
Gotta go with Case here.
If anyone on this here planet is not a number two hitter, it is Jeff Francoeur.
trs86
5/14/2010-9:20am at 9:20 am (UTC -4)
Not saying permanently Kingman. Just to force him to see more pitches.
ceetar
5/14/2010-9:46am at 9:46 am (UTC -4)
I don’t believe in this mentality for most guys, which is why I don’t care much about lineups.
teach Frenchy to think about taking the pitch, rather than try to “trick” him into it by moving him in the lineup. Tell him “Today, take the first pitch. no matter what.”
trs86
5/14/2010-9:50am at 9:50 am (UTC -4)
True enough, just thinking that getting him into the idea of take pitches, move the runner over, make contact might do him some good.
metsfan4decades
5/14/2010-9:15am at 9:15 am (UTC -4)
I’m for anything that will get this offense going but even though Jerry is the great tinkerer, I don’t think we’ll ever see Frenchy hitting second.
This is the third year I believe where Franceour has had big struggles with his hitting. How stubborn can you be not to change your approach? I just don’t get it. It’s not like he had success for 10 years or so and finds it hard to abandon what was working.
This game is all about constant adjustments for both pitchers and hitters. Not sure if I understand why Franceour doesn’t quite get that. Beginning of the season he talked about how he worked with HoJo over the winter. He said something about making some adjustments but basically ‘I am who I am, that’s not going to change’. I’m thinking he doesn’t, his career is going to be over sooner than he thought…
I know you can’t make some light weight into a power hitter but we’ve got Franceour, Reyes, Bay and Wright struggling. At least 3 of those have had several years of success so it’s not like they can’t do it. Isn’t the common denominator here HoJo? He might not be the total problem but time for a fresh eye, IMO.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-9:30am at 9:30 am (UTC -4)
One point I want to make is that Frenchy’s defense is so hard to ignore when you are thinking about benching him.
metsfan4decades
5/14/2010-9:34am at 9:34 am (UTC -4)
Saw an argument among a couple of posters last night on FWICG on Franceour’s defensive skills. One guy was quoting UZR and other stats to back up he a poor defensive OF. Two were trying to dispute that.
I don’t study those stats all that much so can’t say one way or another how accurate they are. I’m just going by I’m a fan who watches all games. I’ve seen several times now where the opposition hasn’t advance from either 2nd or gone home when the ball is hit to RF. And a good part of that has to be his reputation with his arm. How do you measure that as part of UZR or other stats?
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-9:49am at 9:49 am (UTC -4)
I think there was a stat on Runs-Saved to measure defense. Not sure what it factors in, but I would think it would factor in runners advancing on FBs in which case Frenchy would have favorable stat.
ceetar
5/14/2010-9:51am at 9:51 am (UTC -4)
you can’t measure reputation, even though I’m sure they be able to roll out numbers about how often guys go to second against RF and Frenchy specifically, but it’d be inaccurate at best. You’d have to judge if it was a single or a double off the bat based on location and speed and outfield positioning, and then calculate how many of those doubles end up as singles against the Mets. And also how many singles end up as doubles because Frenchy misplayed it.
UZR is supremely flawed. I asked this question on Twitter the other day and Patrick Flood responded with “hmm..good question”, but I don’t know what the answer actually is.
is “Dugout” one of the UZR zones? If so, does Davis’ 3 catches there make every other first baseman in the league worse? (Now that’s an obviously ridiculous statement, but in UZR it’s actually true) If it’s not counted as a separate zone, are those catches ignored all together, or are they lumped into the ssame zone as a soft pop fly near the coaches box, and how is that fair?
trs86
5/14/2010-9:54am at 9:54 am (UTC -4)
agreed, UZR is extremely flawed for 1B anyway. How does it account for a guy who is great at the stretch or for a guy who is great at scooping the ball out of the dirt? This is shown with Tex’s “poor” defensive numbers.
ceetar
5/14/2010-9:56am at 9:56 am (UTC -4)
Very true. does it park adjust? I don’t think it does, but plays a factor. (not that I trust or believe those park afctor numbers)
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
It wasn’t, but I think ball-park factor was added couple months ago. Which made Bay’s UZR go from the -3098.8 to +2
trs86
5/14/2010-9:59am at 9:59 am (UTC -4)
Yeah it does park adjust but not well, thus the reason they had to go back and recalculate and suddenly Bay is above average instead of below. I don’t know if teams use UZR but if they do I bet Bay and his agent were pretty pissed that he went from terrible to above average overnight.
ceetar
5/14/2010-10:03am at 10:03 am (UTC -4)
Well, teams use their own measurements as well, and they keep them secret. If you recall, the Mets evaluated Bay positively in the offseason. (Hmm, and then UZR had to adjust. Are the Mets ahead of the curve?)
You can use the data, but it’s not easy to figure out how the groundskeepers cut the grass, and if they altered it from homestand to homestand.
trs86
5/14/2010-9:42am at 9:42 am (UTC -4)
No doubt it’s important and I am not sure Carter could do it full-time. But make no mistake the old Frenchy, if that is what he will return to, has no spot on a contending team as a starter. Once/if Beltran returns his spot will be in serious jeopardy if he does not turn his offense around a little. I could easily see Beltran and Pagan in RF or even the Mets easing Beltran in by playing him in RF.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-9:47am at 9:47 am (UTC -4)
Agreed. But until Beltran returns, I think Frenchy’s spot is relatively safe.
CaseStreet
5/14/2010-9:45am at 9:45 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, I’d say Frenchy’s defense makes up for his poor hitting.
Also, as long as Frenchy is hitting 7th, I’m okay with his poor hitting.
I think you gotta keep the lineup of:
Pagan
Castillo
Reyes
Wright
Bay
Davis
Frenchy
Barajas
trs86
5/14/2010-9:52am at 9:52 am (UTC -4)
At this point you can’t keep the “crushed” Reyes in the 3 spot.
CaseStreet
5/14/2010-10:03am at 10:03 am (UTC -4)
Might be right, but I’m not sure 19 games batting third is enough games to call the experiment a failure.
Plus, do you think Reyes gets better pitches batting in front of Bay/Wright or in front of Castillo?
trs86
5/14/2010-10:10am at 10:10 am (UTC -4)
Does it matter if it’s “crushing” him?
QnsNative718
5/14/2010-9:53am at 9:53 am (UTC -4)
Reyes
Pagan
Wright
Davis
Bay
Francoeur
Barajas
Castillo
trs86
5/14/2010-9:57am at 9:57 am (UTC -4)
Yeah that’s what we came up with last night. Just trying to be a little more creative this morning.
QnsNative718
5/14/2010-10:02am at 10:02 am (UTC -4)
Barajas is a little too valuable in the 8th spot with the pitcher protecting him. Gotta move him up one.
trs86
5/14/2010-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
I disagree, it’s not like Castillo “protects” him. Having Barajas there gives us the chance for that last clean up guy to drive them home. Also his OBP is terrible. Now a case can be made to put Castillo 8th for sure but I would not mind seeing Castillo 7th and Barajas 8th.
QnsNative718
5/14/2010-10:08am at 10:08 am (UTC -4)
Good point.
QnsNative718
5/14/2010-9:55am at 9:55 am (UTC -4)
People need to get off the Carter train. He had a big hit but he is strictly a PH. Francoeur needs to be out there everyday. IMO
saltygary
5/14/2010-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
Yup
saltygary
5/14/2010-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
How many more lineup changes are needed until everyone realizes this team is weak offensively no matter what configuration. Put the best hitters at the top to maximize their AB’s and hope for a miracle. And every first pitch swing French take is 5 laps around Citi Field.
Reyes
Bay
Wright
Davis
Barajas
Pagan
Francoeur
Castillo
trs86
5/14/2010-9:59am at 9:59 am (UTC -4)
How right now are Reyes and Bay better hitters than Pagan?
QnsNative718
5/14/2010-10:03am at 10:03 am (UTC -4)
Wow…
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-10:03am at 10:03 am (UTC -4)
Davis batting 4th should be looked at very carefully. What do you do with Davis when Beltran comes back? After all, Davis has less than 100 AB in the majors and to move someone like that to the cleanup spot sends pretty strong message to the rest of the team.
QnsNative718
5/14/2010-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
Its not like Wright and Bay have not been given the opportunity to deliver. Maybe it would send some fire up their a$$.
Reyes
Castillo
Wright
Beltran
Bay
Davis
Barajas
Francoeur
trs86
5/14/2010-10:07am at 10:07 am (UTC -4)
It’s not about messages. It’s about the fact that Wright and Bay can’t go back to back right now and thus there is not really any one else to put there.
What do you do when Beltran returns? REJOICE!!!!
Seriously though?
Reyes, Beltran, Wright, Davis, Bay, Pagan/Frenchy, Barajas, Castillo.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-10:15am at 10:15 am (UTC -4)
Uhh.. Beltran batting 2nd?
trs86
5/14/2010-10:51am at 10:51 am (UTC -4)
Sure. He’s done it before and been successful.
oleosmirf
5/14/2010-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
Reyes, Castillo, Beltran, Wright, Bay, Davis, RF, Bajaras
Do you really expect Davis to be hitting .290-.310 in a month?
trs86
5/14/2010-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
Don’t know
I could go with
Reyes, Pagan, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Barajas, Castillo if that pleases you more.
metsfan4decades
5/14/2010-10:08am at 10:08 am (UTC -4)
Did Bay bat cleanup in Boston or further down in the order?
If he didn’t bat cleanup, just wondering if his struggles have something to do with a different mindset because he’s batting cleanup.
I love the Mets but man…some of these guys have quite the fragile pysch, don’t they? Much discussion on post game last night on Reyes batting third and his struggles, blah, blah…
I swear the only guy in this lineup that just goes up there and and bats for the situation no matter where he’s hitting is the light weight swinging Castillo.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
I agree. I feel more comfortable that Luis can advance the runner at 2B than any other player in this team.
Luis has only struck out 5 times this season. FIVE strike outs. That’s easily what Wright and Bay could do over 2 games. Maybe Castillo should be the #3 hitter.
trs86
5/14/2010-10:51am at 10:51 am (UTC -4)
Yeah he can advance the runner to 2B quite well that is an advantage but if there is a runner on 1B then Manuel is going to use him to bunt (or Castillo chooses to) every time. Thus, Castillo is NOT a high OBP guy in that situation.
metsfan4decades
5/14/2010-10:54am at 10:54 am (UTC -4)
True, but at least Castillo knows how to get a bunt down…
trs86
5/14/2010-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)
Yeah but maybe we should think about allowing him to do what he does best which is get on base. He has a near 40% chance of getting on base to move the runner over that does not include the other 10-20% chance that he could do it while full swinging and using his bat control to hit it to the RH side.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-11:00am at 11:00 am (UTC -4)
Even when the runner is on 2B Castillo can definitely move the runner over to 3B.
I mean the 2nd pitch that Reyes tried to bunt last night was ridiculous.
trs86
5/14/2010-11:06am at 11:06 am (UTC -4)
Very true, yes he can. But I don’t want my 2nd hitter to just be a get them over guy. That strategy might be ok for a team with hitters on fire after them. However, you take a guy that has a very high OBP and make him get an out in the 2 spot which in my opinion kills a lot of rallies.
trs86
5/14/2010-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
Answer to your first question, yes and yes.
As for your last point that’s not entirely true either. Castillo was said to pout when moved to the bottom of the order in 2008 and he produced a .200 .304 .200 .504. He did deal with it much better last year after his awakening.
oleosmirf
5/14/2010-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
Reyes is a leadoff hitter and always has been…I don’t understand why people want him to be something else.
If Jose replicates his numbers from 2005-2008, that is perfect. He is never going to be a great hitter and drive in lots of runs. Let him do what he does best; get hits, steal bases and score runs.
Reyes, Castillo, Pagan, Bay, Wright, Davis, Francouer, Barajas
QnsNative718
5/14/2010-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
Pagan 3rd?
oleosmirf
5/14/2010-10:29am at 10:29 am (UTC -4)
we dont have a 3rd hitter on this team until Beltran comes back but at least Pagan can hit the ball LF, CF and RF (Im pretty sure Wright doesnt know that RF exists anymore) and he doesnt strike out as much.
I guess you could switch him with Davis and I would have no problem with that but he seems to be cooling down a bit so I’m not sure its the best time.
trs86
5/14/2010-10:33am at 10:33 am (UTC -4)
Your point on Wright maybe correct but who has the best OBP and OPS on the team?
trs86
5/14/2010-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
I still disagree that Reyes has always been a lead-off hitter. The Mets made him into one. His first nature was free swinging and we had to force him into being an OBP guy.
oleosmirf
5/14/2010-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
Reyes’s speed, base-stealing abilities and electric style of play makes him a lead-off hitter. He is never going to have a high OBP.
His ability to steal 60-80 bases is his most valuable attribute and batting him 3rd will cut that to about 35-45. He’s not a traditional leadoff hitter but he is still most valuable leading off and not trying to be a run producer
trs86
5/14/2010-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
Batting him 3rd is not going to cut his base stealing, Reyes and Manuel are cutting his base stealing.
He’s most likely not a 3 hitter either. Chances are he’s a #2 hitter.
stickguy
5/14/2010-10:41am at 10:41 am (UTC -4)
at his age, and after the major leg injury, I don’t see him really being a 60+ guy anymore.
PLus, there has always been speculation that all the running (plus playing SS) is what wears him down during the season, leading to repeated horrlibe Septembers (including 2007 and 2008). So, maybe running a little less is a good thing!
Reyes also has not had tremendously good CS%s in his career I don’t think. I wish I could find the article to prove it, but some stat head did an analysis and determined a cut off point where SB attempts actually hurt the team.
I think it was less than 75 or 80% successful, and the team wins more if you just never run. So 60 steals with 30 CS might actually be a net negative.
trs86
5/14/2010-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
Agreed. Part of Reyes’s problems is that he does not have great instincts on the base paths. Thus why they have tried bringing in Rickey to help. Also every team knows he is going.
stickguy
5/14/2010-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
which is why 2nd looks like a good fit for him. More natural to take advantage of his hacker instincts, while still playing to his speed game.
trs86
5/14/2010-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
Agreed.
stickguy
5/14/2010-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
line up debate. ALways a good way to fill up the day (and generate a lot of comments!)
I said in the dugout that I was on board the reyes lead off train now (in the future though, I like him in the 2 hole).
and Ike 4th seems like the best fit (structure wise, I am not worried about the message or how many ABs he has had).
But, I can actually see the Castillo 7th idea making sense. That 2nd little line up concept could work. But, maybe Frenchy needs to hit 8th?
reyes/pagan/wright/davis/bay/barajas/castillo/frnechy. At least it is different!
I also am willing to bet (big) that whatever benefit Frenchy’s arm brings (translated into runs saved) is more than offset by his dismal overall production (with a sub-.300 OBP, the sheer volume of outs he makes). And it is not like he is Ryan howard with the HRs either to make up for it!
I know that some of the reports on Toby’s minors blog said Carter was looking OK out in the field, and had made some real nice plays in RF. I also don’t believe a word of what Jerry says, so if nothing else, the Kid should get a start out there to see for real what he can do.
Frenchy (hell, Bay too) look like they badly need a day off. And since GM is almost a guaranteed 4 week outs, why not let Carter start the next 2 games against RH pithcers (1 in left, 1 in right?)
Francouer has 3,000 ML abs to prove that he is a marginal hitter against RHP (kind of in the Murphy range), and dismal against lefties. At absolute max he is a platoon guy or even better, a 4th OF
trs86
5/14/2010-10:41am at 10:41 am (UTC -4)
You got the hands backwards but he is a little better than marginal vs. LH.
As for Frenchy 8th can’t see batting him below a guy like Barajas how has a career OBP lower than even Frenchy.
stickguy
5/14/2010-10:45am at 10:45 am (UTC -4)
The L and R my mommy painted on my shoes wore off. sorry.
But yeah, he is marginal (certainly for a RF) against LHP (OK< not great = marginal), and terrible against RHP.
trs86
5/14/2010-10:46am at 10:46 am (UTC -4)
.300 .342 .485 .827 not sure that is really marginal.
stickguy
5/14/2010-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
for a starting RF, not particularly impressive, and that is if it was his overall numbers. But like I said, good not great.
The problem is, he gets about 3/4 of his ABs against RHP most likely, so his average skews way down.
Hence, he screams out to be platooned.
trs86
5/14/2010-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)
Don’t doubt that. Of course some guys have bad splits and are just left in there because they need to play everyday OR they are good defensively OR there are no replacements.
Right now I am not sure we can say that Carter is a better alternative. I am ok with giving him some starts to find out.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
Off Topic, but what do you guys think about trading for Lily? He’s a FA after this season and if the Cubs are out of it, there’s no reason for them to hold on to him if you can get a prospect in return.
trs86
5/14/2010-10:45am at 10:45 am (UTC -4)
I think they will try and offer him arbitration and keep him. Do you think he commands a top prospect in a rental trade? If anything I see them trying to dump Zambrano as I think their relationship is shattering as we speak.
stickguy
5/14/2010-10:45am at 10:45 am (UTC -4)
if he comes chaep (talent wise), sure it is worth a shot.
trs86
5/14/2010-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
That’s just it, why would he? They can get 2 picks for him in the off-season. It’s not like they are desperate for cash THIS season.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-10:50am at 10:50 am (UTC -4)
Good point. But if the Mets send FMart/Tejada for him, and offer Arb at the end of the season, it’s not a bad deal for the Mets. And the Cubs get a pretty good prospect in return.
trs86
5/14/2010-10:54am at 10:54 am (UTC -4)
There is no way I would offer Fmart for a rental of Lilly. That would for sure be how the mighty have fallen.
koose
5/14/2010-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)
This whole team is in a slump and all everyone is talking about is moving the order around, huh!
Look you can argue all day where Reyes should bat but ultimitley he belongs in the #1 spot that’s where he’s most dangerous and that’s where he will get the most at bats.where Wright and Bay hit is anyones guess. Frency is a replacment player asked to do big things and he can’t its just that simple. And now I read that Ike should be moved down in the order,why so he can lower his average down even more.Let’s face it this ofence isn’t good I know allot of you guys thought it would be, but it is filled with too many streaky hitters as are most teams line ups. I agree that when Beltran returns it changes the dinamics and sends Frency to the scrap heap. Hopefully the team will be above water when that happens (sounds like. Something out of last year)but by then the bullpen will be toast and the starting rotation will be toast as well.We can still hope for philly to get hurt and atlanta to continue its struggles and washinton who knows but our beloved mets will still be a mess.
trs86
5/14/2010-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
Boy aren’t you a grumpy ole codger in the mornings?
stickguy
5/14/2010-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
the one point that you make that should probably happen is Pagan staying in the lineup with Frenchy coming out, if/when Beltran comes back.
Of course, that is a debate for another day (way off in the future!)
trs86
5/14/2010-10:48am at 10:48 am (UTC -4)
Yeah I mentioned that earlier. If nothing else a platoon.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
I like Pagan hitting 6th. But I would like to see
Reyes
Castillo/or vice versa
Wright
Bay/Davis
Davis/Bay
Pagan
Frenchy
Barajas
I think Frenchy will see more FBs with Pagan on base and Pagan has enough power to hit in 6th spot.
trs86
5/14/2010-10:48am at 10:48 am (UTC -4)
Not terrible but with Castillo injured and Cora playing every 3rd day I think you gotta move him down.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)
when Cora’s playing, I think he should bat 8th and Pagan to 1/2 spot.
stickguy
5/14/2010-10:56am at 10:56 am (UTC -4)
I don’t like slapy hitting 2nd, and instead of flipping the lineup around when you rotate guys (which jerry seems to abhor), better to just put the 2B guy in the 8 hole and leave them there.
trs86
5/14/2010-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)
Then that flys in the face of lineup consistency because 1/3 of the time you have a different lineup.
metsfan4decades
5/14/2010-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
Wait – did I miss something? Is Castillo injured?
Or were you saying if Castillo does get injured and Cora takes over, you gotta move Cora down?
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-11:03am at 11:03 am (UTC -4)
Castillo has that bruised hill or something like that. So, I think what TRS was referring to Cora starting once every series.
trs86
5/14/2010-11:05am at 11:05 am (UTC -4)
Yeah they have been resting him every 3rd game.
ceetar
5/14/2010-11:25am at 11:25 am (UTC -4)
well before the bruised heel though.
trs86
5/14/2010-11:30am at 11:30 am (UTC -4)
It was only occasionally then but now it’s mandatory evidently.
metsfan4decades
5/14/2010-11:19am at 11:19 am (UTC -4)
Ah…O.K. -knew about that bruised heel.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-11:38am at 11:38 am (UTC -4)
yeah bruised heel.. not bruised hill… that doesn’t make sense…
trs86
5/14/2010-11:41am at 11:41 am (UTC -4)
Sounds like a good war movie. The Battle of Bruised Hill.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
Featuring Luis Castillo and Ollie Perez!
trs86
5/14/2010-11:53am at 11:53 am (UTC -4)
Butch Cassidy and the Idiot… uh I mean Sundance Kid.
stickguy
5/14/2010-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)
well, if we could magically have beltran back, I would n’t mind seeing:
Reyes
beltran
wright
davis
bay
pagan
castillo
barajas
trs86
5/14/2010-10:58am at 10:58 am (UTC -4)
Yeah put that up earlier. You and I are always on the same page lineup wise.
Mr North Jersey
5/14/2010-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
Morning all,
I see everyone is in lineup change mode.
Here and in most other blogs for that matter are in lineup mode.
The way the team as a whole is struggling I am not sure there is such a thing as a bad lineup right now so anyone’s choice for a possible lineup is just as good as the next persons. How Jerry handles the lineup from 1 through 8 is anyone’s call.
Rather than proposing my lineup I thought I’d try to point out things to see what we agree on so here goes.
1.) The Reyes batting 3rd experiment should come to an end.
2.) Pagan should not be dropped in the 6,7 or 8 hole.
3.) Due to their high volume of strikeouts Bay and Wright should be separated.
4.) Jerry Manuel has said he likes the idea of Davis batting 4th.
5.) Batting Davis in the 4-hole is a big responsibility for a rookie.
trs86
5/14/2010-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
Agree on all except for #2 IF the situation presents itself. It would have to be the right situation like Jerry not moving Castillo because he is stubborn then Pagan 6th might work.
trs86
5/14/2010-11:33am at 11:33 am (UTC -4)
There is one bright spot, I am very thankful for the readers of TRDM. I can come here and have a lineup discussion without seeing this:
Pagan
Jose
Barajas (Give him some fastballs with runners on base.)
Bay
Davis
Wright
Castillo
F-Core
Pitcher
That’s not even the worst one, just the last one. Damn, what an inner circle that is over there. We had people batting Wright 6th and Reyes 7th.
trs86
5/14/2010-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
Or comments like this: “but how many people here really feel that having Davis and Barajas batting in the 8th (instead of Reyes and Bay/Wright) would not have ended in a better result?”
So in other words we need to move Reyes, Bay, and Wright down to 6-8.
Pagan, Castillo, Davis, Barajas, Frenchy, Bay, Wright, Reyes.
Good lord, buy a brain.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
well we have one idiot who says Frenchy should bat 2nd..
Mr North Jersey
5/14/2010-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
Cue drumroll…..
trs86
5/14/2010-11:52am at 11:52 am (UTC -4)
Very true but at least in theory my rational is strong and I only want it to be temporary.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
Just messin wit ya
trs86
5/14/2010-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
No you are right though. I deserve to be ragged for that one because it for sure is out there.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-12:03pm at 12:03 pm (UTC -4)
Well… “out there” and Jerry kinda goes hand in hand…
oh wait… that’s not what I meant.. LOL
I think it’s good to think outside the box (as I usually don’t do) as long as there’s a good logic to it. Just putting Wright and Reyes at #7 and 8th spot just because they are struggling is not a good logic.
trs86
5/14/2010-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
Hey it’s not just Metsblog, you got this on NJ.com
“And Reyes should have been traded after the 2007 debacle where he pulled his first of two september disappearing acts. As for wright, who should never be left out of this converstion, we have further proof from last night that he is an excellent statistical compiler. But never ask the guy to get a key hit for you.”
metsfan4decades
5/14/2010-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
Rolling my eyes….
Glad I’m a bit busy today and only have time to mostly read comments here….
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-12:11pm at 12:11 pm (UTC -4)
Interesting article. Perhaps gives 3rd person’s view.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/semper-failcoeur/
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
Kinda on a related note,
First pitch swinging.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-last-look-at-first-pitch-aggressiveness/
For those who doesn’t want to bother clicking here’s a summary.
Swinging at first pitches with good pitchers will result in higher wOBA (whatever that is, I think it’s like Weighted On Base Average). However, swinging at first pitch with bad pitchers will result in lower wOBA. In other words, good pitchers will likely get ahead of hitters 0-1 whereas bad pitchers will fall behind the hitters 1-0. So, 0-1 and 1-0 makes whole lot of difference and with the pitchers throwing strikes, it’s good to be aggressive. But when the pitcher keeps on falling behind the hitters, it’s better to be patient (duh!).
Sounds very simple. But I don’t see that with the Mets hitters. 20 inning game was a classic example. When you have a positional players throwing crap, why are you trying to hit a HR where you can sit on it and MAKE the pitcher throw strikes.
trs86
5/14/2010-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
I will read it but I don’t consider Fangraphs’ articles 3rd person anymore. I consider most of them to be as level headed as the MB comment section.
wannybackstra
5/14/2010-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
Tough to argue with anything in this article. Francouer is a demonstrated undisciplined out machine at the plate.
trs86
5/14/2010-12:32pm at 12:32 pm (UTC -4)
Not bad for Fangraphs. I disagree with this logic. “He had some great defensive seasons in right field in Atlanta, but most of that was due to his strong arm, and teams aren’t testing him as much anymore. ”
So because teams are not testing him as much anymore his defensive numbers go down. Well that’s some crap huh?
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-12:35pm at 12:35 pm (UTC -4)
We’ve seen what Frenchy can do when the teams test him. There’s no doubt he has a great arm and throws runners out with accuracy. But if his offensive numbers are going to look like his ATL days, I’m not sure if you offer him a spot next season no matter how great the guy is.
It’s not like the Mets don’t have replacements for him and I’m sure he knows that too.
trs86
5/14/2010-12:40pm at 12:40 pm (UTC -4)
They don’t really currently have a replacement for him but they will.
Yeah his offensive numbers can’t continue to stink, it would be much better though if he was 7th and the rest of the lineup was hitting.
My point was that Fangraphs seemed to be saying he was not as valuable of a defender because teams don’t test him.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-12:45pm at 12:45 pm (UTC -4)
I thought the article is saying that all that Frenchy could bring to the table is his defensive skill and not worth the $$ that he will commend next season.
trs86
5/14/2010-12:47pm at 12:47 pm (UTC -4)
Overall yes. Just pointing out the part I did not agree with:
“He had some great defensive seasons in right field in Atlanta, but most of that was due to his strong arm, and teams aren’t testing him as much anymore.”
Thus because they are not testing him as much anymore he’s not as valuable defensively.
stickguy
5/14/2010-12:48pm at 12:48 pm (UTC -4)
good article. and it makes me feel better to have some “support” for all the ragging I have been doing on him!
Even better, I clicked on the hyperlink to his quote (about OBP), and it went to a post at Talking Chop from early last year, where some dude created Failcouer T shirts. Actually quite well done, but the funniest part was all the comments. Man, the fans in Atl really hated him (at least the ones that post at TC). They also come across as a bunch of dopeasses, but I guess they are Braves fans, so what else should you expect/
BOttom line, I really agree with Fangraphs that he should not be brought back next year for even more than the $5mill he is getting now.
But, my big fear is that Omar still goes out and locks him up for 3/30, just for his Grustle.
Right now, he is OK for an (overpaid) 4th OF/platoon/defensive replacement type. And pagan would be a much better starting option.
But, if beltran does come back, and needs to play RF, he is on the bench or traded anyway.
trs86
5/14/2010-1:06pm at 1:06 pm (UTC -4)
Obviously I am not too keen no just handing money to a guy who has an OBP under .300. My question this year is how much is his clubhouse presence worth? How can WE put a value on that because we have no idea it’s impact. We can dismiss it but if you do that then you have clearly never played on a team before. I don’t dismiss it but I wonder how much it’s actually worth AND can he deliver that presence if he is not starting?
wannybackstra
5/14/2010-12:20pm at 12:20 pm (UTC -4)
If Reyes doesn’t get on base, which is more often than not even when he (or anyone else) is at his best, then you have a guy who is terrible at getting on base getting the next most at bats on the team.
trs86
5/14/2010-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
Aren’t 99% of hitters guys that get out more than they get on? LOL
wannybackstra
5/14/2010-12:31pm at 12:31 pm (UTC -4)
Yes. And I said that.
That’s why it is a silly idea to move a terrible hitter to the two hole so that he might see an extra fastball in 35% of his at bats.
trs86
5/14/2010-12:33pm at 12:33 pm (UTC -4)
Not really doing it because he would see any more FB. Just trying to temporarily get through to him that if you are going to play you have to take work the count, move runners over and make contact.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-12:32pm at 12:32 pm (UTC -4)
He’s not that bad in terms of getting on base when you look at last 4 years
from ’06-’09 his line is .291/.355/.456
Obviously you would like to see higher OBP for a leadoff guy, it’s not a bad number either.
trs86
5/14/2010-12:35pm at 12:35 pm (UTC -4)
True, .355 is not terrible but certainly not what you would expect from a super star lead-off hitter.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
But I think what makes Reyes unique is his power.
trs86
5/14/2010-12:38pm at 12:38 pm (UTC -4)
Exactly which is why in my opinion he is better suited for the 2 spot. Still going to come up most of the time with no one on get on and steal and still has a chance to drive a high OBP guy in.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
I agree with you. I don’t mind Reyes hitting 2nd. I was opposed to it at first, but I think he can be utilized like how Damon was utilized for the Yankees.
trs86
5/14/2010-12:46pm at 12:46 pm (UTC -4)
Or Derek Jeter who has thrived as a #2 hitter.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-12:56pm at 12:56 pm (UTC -4)
oh.. yeah…
stickguy
5/14/2010-12:59pm at 12:59 pm (UTC -4)
I still think Wright could end up in the 2 hole. Really will take a couple of things to happen 1st:
1) they get a 2B that can hit, with some power (say, havens. Or the next Jeff Kent)
2) He ends up goin gback to his compact, line drive to all field stroke, even if it cuts down on his HRs (but also on his Ks)
3) the rest of the line up has no glaring holes, and the other spots are covered.
Say magically Havens was established, but beltran was back (humor me).
a lineup of reyes/wright/beltran/davis/bay/2B that can hit (havens)/RF better than frenchy or a platoon/catcher.
This, I like. Just need beltran back (and a 2B that can hit).
Or, pagan or Kirk takes CF, beltran retires, and they get a big bat for RF. Then you get
reyes/wright/davis/RF bat/bay/2B that can hit/pagan/catcher.
trs86
5/14/2010-1:02pm at 1:02 pm (UTC -4)
Wright has been trending up in K’s for a while. Moving him to 2nd is not best at all. Plus for now he’s still our best OPS guy.
stickguy
5/14/2010-12:51pm at 12:51 pm (UTC -4)
that is where I wanted reyes all along. I was big on the castillo leading off (if they had to play him, and he was able to sustain last years OBP) and Reyes raking behind him concept. Basically a 2-headed lead off hitter, but the 2nd one has the power to drive an extra base hit.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-12:49pm at 12:49 pm (UTC -4)
My Over/under on tonight’s game
number of walks that Ollie will have – 4
number of innings Ollie will pitch – 5 1/3
number of strike outs for Wright & Bay – 3
% Nieve or Feliciano pitches this game – 43%
number of bunts Jerry will try – 2
trs86
5/14/2010-1:04pm at 1:04 pm (UTC -4)
Under, push, under, uh over 43%, over
metsfan4decades
5/14/2010-1:06pm at 1:06 pm (UTC -4)
I think my head will explode if I see Jerry telling Reyes to bunt one more time with a runner on base and no outs. Reyes had a better shot of hitting a weak grounder to move the runner over than he did at bunting – i.e. see the night before, Jerry…
trs86
5/14/2010-1:07pm at 1:07 pm (UTC -4)
Obviously. That’s what I was saying about Castillo too. Why take a guy with a near .400 OBP that does not strike out and has great bat control and make him bunt?
stickguy
5/14/2010-12:53pm at 12:53 pm (UTC -4)
over, push, over, no way to bet over/under on it, under
Mr North Jersey
5/14/2010-1:05pm at 1:05 pm (UTC -4)
If Manuel comes out and says he is batting Reyes in the 2 hole will it cause me to say, what the hell?
-No
Just keep this in mind Reyes being moved from the 3 hole is obviously because reason #1 that he is not hitting there. Now why he is not hitting can be a number of things more than I care to take the time to list BUT if one of the reasons is because he looks to be not comfortable there well then putting him in the 2-hole doesn’t sound like the way to go if you are trying to make him comfortable.
Considering that according to Baseball Reference Reyes in his entire career has started all of 42 games hitting in the 2-hole and the last time Reyes started in the 2-hole was in 2005 which he did all of 3 times that year.
Now compare that to the 1-hole where he has started 722 games in that spot and ask yourself if the point is to make Reyes feel comfortable in hopes to get him to start hitting. Then where do you think he is more comfortable in the 1-hole or the 2-hole?
metsfan4decades
5/14/2010-1:11pm at 1:11 pm (UTC -4)
This is a no-brainer. Just put him back at leadoff.
trs86
5/14/2010-1:12pm at 1:12 pm (UTC -4)
I would say he has some balls for not moving a lead off hitter who is hitting .287 .337 .460 .797 and this last year .316 .358 .508 .866 and this for his career .310 .355 .496 .851 in the lead off spot.
stickguy
5/14/2010-1:25pm at 1:25 pm (UTC -4)
right now, with the immediate “crisis”, put him back in the leadoff hole to try and get his head on straight and the kineup working again.
My idea of him hitting 2nd was really down the road. Say, next year, if they have someone else to fit the profile of a lead off guy, and they spend all spring get acclimated.
moving him from 3 to 2 now really only serves 1 purpose, and that is to get castillo (and of course cora) down in the order.
If Bletran does come back, and plays CF, then there is no other leadoff option (unless they finally decide to move castillo there, which doesn’t seem like it will happen, or they bench Frnechy for pagan)
Mr North Jersey
5/14/2010-1:30pm at 1:30 pm (UTC -4)
“right now, with the immediate “crisisâ€, put him back in the lead-off hole to try and get his head on straight and the lineup working again.”
Agreed.
metsfan4decades
5/14/2010-1:09pm at 1:09 pm (UTC -4)
On a side note, did anyone see this image from Ramirez during last night’s game?
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/357454/MarlinsCheating.png
Pretty funny. I think all fans should have 2 cups ready like this for the upcoming series against the Phillies.
stickguy
5/14/2010-1:17pm at 1:17 pm (UTC -4)
was this the home made binocs? I saw that on the broadcast on MLB network. QUite funny.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/14/2010-1:17pm at 1:17 pm (UTC -4)
SNY showed that too. And SNY also showed Taka dancing with KRod in the BP.
metsfan4decades
5/14/2010-1:22pm at 1:22 pm (UTC -4)
I saw the dancing, twice – but somehow missed this one of Ramirez.
Mr North Jersey
5/14/2010-1:19pm at 1:19 pm (UTC -4)
Great pic lol
stickguy
5/14/2010-1:16pm at 1:16 pm (UTC -4)
bottom line, lookin gahead to 2011 (unless they can somehow manage to do it this year!), there are 2 areas (psitionally) that I think the Mets need to make moves at: RF and 2B.
This is the off season to upgrade 2B. Now, I really hope that Havens finally stays healthy, and rockets up the system. But if not, Slappy should be movable (if he is still ambulatory) with only 1 year left on his deal. So, a ST solution would work too. No idea who wil be available of course, but it would be nice to see a more well-rounded bat.
They also need to part ways with Frenchy. WHile I would be fine with him as a bench guy, not at the 6mill+ he will get in Arb. And sure as hell not on a LT deal.
So, I go all out to try and find the big bat for RF. At this point, I am not counting on F Mart to be staking a claim. No idea which FA RFs (other than Werth) there might be, but a trade maybe? This is the easiest place to find that big bat the lineup seems to be missing. Beltran is of course a WC, and if he can play but needs RF, then you get Pagan/kirk in CF (I still like Kirk to take over in 2012).
So, for S&Gs, let’s say havens goes viral and wins the 2B job, and they shock me by signing werth. And Beltran can actually still play.
you could, with 1 big acquisition (and they usually get one, hopefuly 2 this time with the 2nd being a SP), and 1 prospect forcing his way onto the team, end up with this lineup:
reyes/beltran/wright/davis/werth/bay/havens/catcher.
that right there looks a hell of a lot better than what they are putting out today. But, any lineup that has castillo and COra NOT in it, already looks better!
so I guess for this year, they need to get beltran back, and figure out how to get more production from RF to get close. The 2B upgrade (bat wise) I just don’t see happening.
stickguy
5/14/2010-1:19pm at 1:19 pm (UTC -4)
Oh, and I don’t actually see them signing Werth, but if they could sign or trade for a different upgrade bat for RF, you can get the same impact.
but, I could also see a Beltran in RF situation, in which case you get your impact bat, but overall the line up is weaker since the CF spot wouldn’t be as productive.
Mr North Jersey
5/14/2010-1:20pm at 1:20 pm (UTC -4)
Francesa: The Mets just can’t buy a big hit.
stickguy
5/14/2010-1:27pm at 1:27 pm (UTC -4)
wait, they are for sale? No wonder the Yankees seem to get them!
Fred, open up the damn wallet and buy some of these babies!
tkfj
5/14/2010-1:39pm at 1:39 pm (UTC -4)
I understand the idea behind Barajas 8th with Pagan and Castillo in front, I like it, but it isnt realistic. The lineup will never get constructed like this with Jerry as manager, or most big league managers because it is too out of the box.
Maybe…..
Reyes
Frenchy
Wright
Davis
Bay
Barajas
Pagan
Castillo
Pitcher.
Eh. I don’t even like it.
stickguy
5/14/2010-1:43pm at 1:43 pm (UTC -4)
Frenchy is never going in the 2 hole. Real ws dillusional to even come up with that in the first place. He has to stay down in the 7/8 hole, although 6 is possible if you stack the top of the order, and shove 2B in the 7 or 8 hole.
tkfj
5/14/2010-1:49pm at 1:49 pm (UTC -4)
I know Stick…although if Reyes ever got going, Frenchy would see tons of FB in the 2 hole. Unfortunately, the bottom of the lineup has nothing then.
stickguy
5/14/2010-1:41pm at 1:41 pm (UTC -4)
on another note (big shocker here), F Mart back on the DL with a hammy tweak.
I really ope this ends up being the same as Reyes (growing pains), and that he finally gets past it and can have a string of years playing FT with no injuries.
Playing (or right now, not playing) himself right out of the mix for 2011 RF too at this pace.