I discovered this article while browsing MLBTR today: What would a third Cliff Lee trade mean for the Phillies?
I will let you do your own reading but lets skip to the Mets.
“Mets - Anybody want to face Lee and Santana four times in a playoff series? Like the Dodgers, the Mets aren’t in great shape in their farm system. But they are also lagging in attendance, and stewing over the Phillies’ recent domination of the division. Yeah, they’ve struggled here lately, and could be out of contention come deadline time. But if they are anywhere close to striking distance, two-and-a-half months of Lee-Santana-Pelfrey could work wonders. Heck, maybe Seattle would even be in a position to take on a change-of-scenery project like Oliver Perez (along, of course, with a considerable financial package) as a kick-in.”
Yeah I just thought I would brighten your day with that fantasy. Yes, it’s incredibly unlikely but the thought of somehow dumping Perez and getting Lee forming a playoff rotation of Johan, Lee, Pelfrey is certainly enough to get me into daydream condition.
89 comments
CaseStreet
5/18/2010-1:13pm at 1:13 pm (UTC -4)
I’ve been hoping this could happen for a while. At least the GM’s have some recent trade history. Maybe Seattle likes some of our other prospects. Vargas seems to be working out for them.
I’d pretty much include anyone for Cliff Lee, if we could get a decent contract extension. Mejia, Flores and Tejada?
ceetar
5/18/2010-1:39pm at 1:39 pm (UTC -4)
seems unlikely the guy is looking for an extension from what I understand. eh.
Mr North Jersey
5/18/2010-1:14pm at 1:14 pm (UTC -4)
Since you are in LA-LA Land why Lee? Trade King Felix for Niese also.
metsfan4decades
5/18/2010-1:39pm at 1:39 pm (UTC -4)
Nice dream but probably not happening. It would be nice though.
prismo
5/18/2010-1:40pm at 1:40 pm (UTC -4)
The Mets would have to make it to the playoffs first…
And I don’t see where the money for Lee will be. Maybe if Omar didn’t sign a bum for a 3-year $36MM contract, the money would be there.
trs86
5/18/2010-1:45pm at 1:45 pm (UTC -4)
We have plenty of money and Lee only cost 9M this year. If you are speaking of the contract extension, don’t buy any of the reports that the Mets don’t have money. They just did not find anyone worth spending it on.
ceetar
5/18/2010-1:48pm at 1:48 pm (UTC -4)
Mets have plenty of money, and for just this reason.
If they could swing Lee with a mostly low-end prospects and money trade, that’d be kinda awesome and I’d accept it as a rental.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/18/2010-2:04pm at 2:04 pm (UTC -4)
Not sure about that. With the attendance problem that the Mets have, they might actually look to cut payroll next season and no big contract is coming off next season.
trs86
5/18/2010-2:06pm at 2:06 pm (UTC -4)
That’s a backwards way of looking at it though. The Mets know, spend more and you get more attendance. It’s not like they are unrelated.
stickguy
5/18/2010-2:08pm at 2:08 pm (UTC -4)
that is a short term problem, as in 1 year. So put it in the catagory of soemtiems you hae to spend money to make money.
Next year, likely (I hope) Frenchy’s 5mill comes off, so tht is something.
But, 2012 is a big change (after the 2011 season). Beltran, Castillo and Ollie all gone.. That is at least 36mill, offset of course by any raises and other signings, but a ton coming off the books.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/18/2010-2:13pm at 2:13 pm (UTC -4)
Lack of attendance will impact next year’s payroll for sure as they will get their revenue forecast using current trends.
trs86
5/18/2010-2:31pm at 2:31 pm (UTC -4)
I just don’t think that in NY they will lower payroll because of this year’s attendance. If anything they will increase it to get more attendance. A NY sports team is not a normal business model.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/18/2010-2:10pm at 2:10 pm (UTC -4)
Which might work in favor of trading for Lee if the Mets are in contention come July. Trading for Lee would boost their chance in making the post season and hence more $$ coming in. However, contract extension might not happen until the offseason.
So basically, if the Mets want to get him this season, they have to overpay with the prospects. Who would you give up for a 1/2 year rental player (and a 1st round pick)?
I think raw talents like Flores or Familia could work. Or a mlb-ready talents like FMart/Murphy/Tejada.
trs86
5/18/2010-2:12pm at 2:12 pm (UTC -4)
And a 1st round pick, I am guessing as you are saying they would offer arbitration?
If the Mets trade for Lee then he will be extended.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/18/2010-2:20pm at 2:20 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t know about that. His salary is relatively cheap this season and it seems like they have some room in this year’s payroll. But if the attendance trend continues to go down, next year’s payroll will come down dramatically. They won’t have a room to add $16-18M for a pitcher. Unless they get rid of Ollie + Castillo OR Beltran.
If the Mets are operating like any other business out there, their approach in revenue projection will be conservative. So, they will not speculate that revenue will increase dramatically next season just because Lee is signed.
If they make the playoffs this season, I’m sure the attendance will go up next season. But what if they don’t? These are some questions that will need to be answered before trading for Lee. And in my opinion, it will be more of “let’s wait and see on extension”.
trs86
5/18/2010-2:28pm at 2:28 pm (UTC -4)
I disagree, the Mets know that in NY you are expected to spend money and they would have spent it this year but refused to overpay for bad players.
njstuckintx
5/18/2010-2:23pm at 2:23 pm (UTC -4)
Not sure what it would take, but I’d have no issue with F-mart going if he could ever get healthy. Mejia should be a no-no at this point. Mejia, Ike and Niese would prob. be the only ones I wouldn’t do, with prob. Flores on that list too. Fmart/Murph/Holt for Lee?
Kingman 26
5/18/2010-1:55pm at 1:55 pm (UTC -4)
We really don’t know if they have money.
They said they would spend hugely in October, and then lowered the payroll.
We don’t know if they have money they intend to spend, or if the payroll is where it is because they aren’t spending any more.
trs86
5/18/2010-2:05pm at 2:05 pm (UTC -4)
What we do know is they offered Pineiro and Molina money at the same time and while they refused to increase that money it was a significant amount that was on the table.
ceetar
5/18/2010-2:13pm at 2:13 pm (UTC -4)
the rumors about buying the Islanders suggest there is money from a non-Mets standpoint as well. While the Wilpons always claimed that they didn’t invest Mets money with Madoff, there was a thought that maybe they’d look to gain extra profits off the Mets (something they’re doing this year so far anyway) to recoop. But if they can afford to even think about the Islanders, maybe they’re actually fine.
We’ll see what they do over the next couple of months. The Mets really do have enormous flexibility, and depending on certain things not a whole ton of places they’d need to upgrade.
Ignoring Beltran’s risk of microfracture for the moment, it’s only really RF and C that we’d be looking at (provided Ike is for real) and Thole and F-Mart could both make those irrelevant, so that leaves SP, and Johan, Pelf are here, and probably definitely Niese as well. That leaves one spot for a big free agent and one for a prospect like Mejia.
Kingman 26
5/18/2010-2:44pm at 2:44 pm (UTC -4)
Nothing remotely close to what Lee will cost if he has a good year.
Nothing remotely close.
trs86
5/18/2010-2:47pm at 2:47 pm (UTC -4)
This thread never mentioned the extension.
While I would say that Lee would be in line for 18-20 how is that nothing close to the 15 they had promised to those two bums?
Also keep in mind that RF may be filled from within freeing up another 5M. So that alone pays for Lee. Again when was the last time the Mets did not add a high profile FA?
stickguy
5/18/2010-2:51pm at 2:51 pm (UTC -4)
what do yo uthink Lee will get, keeping in mind he is at least 32 next year (if not 33)? Certainly not more than halladay, right?
SO, lets say lackey money? Peg it at 18 mill.
Molina was offered 5ish, and Pinhead about 8 I think? That is 13.
Throw in not offering Frenchy a contract (replaced by a =young guy), and that is your missing 5 mill.
stickguy
5/18/2010-2:10pm at 2:10 pm (UTC -4)
I doubt they don’t have enough money to take on Lee for 1/2 a year. Like TRS said, they saved budget for something (and did make significant offers to Panera bread and fat bengie). That was at least 10mill that existed at some point before the season!
so, the money is not the issue. The players that Seattle will want back however is, especially since this guy will be 100% a rental.
trs86
5/18/2010-2:13pm at 2:13 pm (UTC -4)
10M hell. It was closer to 15M
Stick, you have to remember that Johan was a “rental” as well. I see no reason the Mets could not work out a deal with Lee.
ceetar
5/18/2010-2:14pm at 2:14 pm (UTC -4)
Supposedly it’s one of the reasons the Phillies traded him, because he wants to test the open market. Of course, generally the open market means NY money, so maybe that’s all he wanted.
prismo
5/18/2010-2:38pm at 2:38 pm (UTC -4)
Although he denied that accusation.
ceetar
5/18/2010-2:49pm at 2:49 pm (UTC -4)
well he certainly wasn’t going to admit it was he?
stickguy
5/18/2010-2:28pm at 2:28 pm (UTC -4)
little different. Johan was off season, and they got a window. and if they hadn’t worked out the deal, I believe the trade was off, right?
And Lee is on record as saying they plan to test the FA waters. so while they could work out a deal, it likely has to be for absolute top dollar (as in bid against yourself), and won’t be done before the deal, so you are taking a big risk. Plus, 1/2 year, not a full year, on his deal.
well, lee is also about 3 years older than Johan was at the time FWIW>
so, I think any lee deal has to be made on the assumption he will be a FA, and you will be bidding for him on the open market.
so, trade what you are comfortable with giving up for the 2-3 months service time, plus whatever you get form offering him arbitration (certainly he wil be a type A at least).
what that is, I do not know.
Mr North Jersey
5/18/2010-2:14pm at 2:14 pm (UTC -4)
What we know is that the Mets are 1 game below .500.
We know that the Mets are not selling tickets.
We know that we are playing terrible baseball right now.
This we know.
ceetar
5/18/2010-2:19pm at 2:19 pm (UTC -4)
by right now, you mean of course over the last week or two, not yesterday.
I don’t think we really have a handle on ‘not selling tickets’. The summer is the peak time, and we’re not there yet. Tickets aren’t really ‘unsold’ until after the game passes. Next homestand is really a freebie, so it does give them roughly 15 games to draw interest. Then It’s June and warmer and whatnot.
Mr North Jersey
5/18/2010-2:35pm at 2:35 pm (UTC -4)
By all accounts Mets have reported ticket sales are down so far this year Ceetar.
ceetar
5/18/2010-2:47pm at 2:47 pm (UTC -4)
so far, my point is April-May attendance was always going to be sparse. Ticket sales aren’t “down” until al the numbers are in and the game has been played. The June 8-10th series against the Padres may be well down, but the Mets may slaughter the Brewers and padres going into that homestand and people may be excited about the team and buy those tickets about projections.
Mr North Jersey
5/18/2010-2:53pm at 2:53 pm (UTC -4)
Well I never intended to say I was speaking for the entire 81 game season.
I thought it went without saying I was only talking about where we are today.
If your point was to say that with a strong finish the Mets can finish 2010 with a higher attendance total than in 2009. I don’t see any reason to believe why that can not happen and look forward to that hopefully being the case.
ceetar
5/18/2010-2:59pm at 2:59 pm (UTC -4)
And i understand the whole point of season tickets is they want the money “OMG RIGHT NOW GIVE IT TO ME” like a greedy child with his allowance so they can bank on it and gain interest. However, they aren’t actually “losing” that money until the games pass. And I don’t know how their budget is set up (supposedly 3.15 tickets last year, budgeted for 3mill this). I suspect they were counting on more money out of the summer tickets, that aren’t sold yet, than an early May series against the Nats. 22 home games, 7k, is roughly the .15 drop in attendance they’re counting on. Citi Field was pretty sparsly attended late last year, and I assume the Mets are expecting to be semi-competitive and at least draw some fans this year.
Kingman 26
5/18/2010-2:47pm at 2:47 pm (UTC -4)
Ceetar—Attendance is about 7000 less per game than last year….reports are that this is the biggest decrease in baseball.
Did I used to sound this out of touch with objective reality??
If so, I apologize.
ceetar
5/18/2010-2:49pm at 2:49 pm (UTC -4)
To be expected. April and May last yaer were new stadium excitement, regardless of quality of team. This year it’s not. Those numbers will not change until June 8th for the most part, due to the Yanks and to a lesser extent, Phillies. 15 games. If the Mest go 10-5, do you think those games will be down 7k?
trs86
5/18/2010-2:49pm at 2:49 pm (UTC -4)
So in theory wouldn’t that show that the fans are upset over the direction of the Mets and one way to correct that problem would be to give them the #2 they all wanted?
GravediggerHebner
5/18/2010-2:28pm at 2:28 pm (UTC -4)
While I would certainly love to have the NL East and post season successfully tested Lee in the rotation, it is my personal belief that the Mets will have a better shot signing him in the off season as a FA than they will at acquiring him via trade this season.
I trust Lee’s camp with their suggestion that they want to hit the open market and don’t want to trade for him for 3 months of service. This off season it will just be about money, now it would be about prospects plus money and I have to believe many interested parties could out-prospect the Mets.
I don’t envision Seattle trading him anyway. With Bedard (allegedly) coming back next month, I instead see Seattle shipping off one of their lesser-light pitchers for improvements to their across-the-board last in the AL offense (last in R, BA, OBP, SLG). They could turn young cheap SP such as Fister or Vargas into some much needed offense to make a run.
But if they do continue to play miserably I could see them packing it in and sending Lee to the highest bidder. I would be very surprised if that highest bidder were the Mets.
stickguy
5/18/2010-2:29pm at 2:29 pm (UTC -4)
vargas back for murphy/evans/tejada/someone else?
GravediggerHebner
5/18/2010-2:34pm at 2:34 pm (UTC -4)
The Mets have been demonstrating (at least to me) recently that they are in “rectify mistake mode” so re-acquiring Vargas might fit.
I suck at putting together viable trade proposals so I can’t comment on that aspect of your suggestion. Now that I’ve said that about trade proposals, I’ll add that I have to believe if/when Minaya rings up Zduriencik about Lee, Z says “Davis plus…” because Seattle’s lack of production at 1B is a glaring hole (.190/.277/.350 with 4 HR and 16 RBI).
trs86
5/18/2010-2:38pm at 2:38 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah I brought up Seattle as a landing spot for Murphy a while back. I think he would be a good fit because that’s not the only spot they have a hole. Jose Lopez is hitting: .221 .248 .279 .528 at 3B and Figgins is really struggling at 2B and their LF is Milton I gotta .214 BA.
GravediggerHebner
5/18/2010-2:53pm at 2:53 pm (UTC -4)
I agree but I have to think if they were going to part with Lee they would use the opportunity to get the best possible 1B they could. Like the Mets with Murphy there they are close to the bottom of the league in production from that position so Murphy, while potentially useful to them, doesn’t help with that.
I can’t imagine they would go into rebuilding mode so I don’t see us being able to offer them some A & AA guys. I think Lee talks start (and hopefully end with a “no” from Omar) with Ike Davis. Davis also seems to offer them the defense they prioritize.
Speaking of that, their’s and the Red Sox’ starts to this season sort of b!tch-slap the whole “runs-saved” sabermetric theory of team building and I’d be lying if I said that didn’t make me smile a bit.
johan4cy
5/18/2010-2:39pm at 2:39 pm (UTC -4)
Ha, I would trade Evans for Vargas in a second… to bad the Mariners wouldn’t.
njstuckintx
5/18/2010-2:32pm at 2:32 pm (UTC -4)
For enough benjamins waiving in his face, he’d pass on Free Agency. Just a matter of what that magic number of $100′s will be.
trs86
5/18/2010-2:32pm at 2:32 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed.
GravediggerHebner
5/18/2010-2:37pm at 2:37 pm (UTC -4)
I can’t dispute that notion, I can only say that my gut feeling is he will test the market. Whatever benjamins the Mets wave at him if they trade for him will simply give him an idea of what to ask for on the market IMO.
stickguy
5/18/2010-2:41pm at 2:41 pm (UTC -4)
yup. he basically takes the mets offer, and uses it as a starting point and fall back position.
njstuckintx
5/18/2010-2:45pm at 2:45 pm (UTC -4)
True enough. Well, shoot for the gold if it isn’t going to crush 2011. No Niese, Ike, Mejia on the block. Tejada/Fmart/Muphy(?) (I dunno, i’m like you, I can’t gauge trade values) for Lee? At worst, get some draft picks, at best, sign him to extension, or sign him as a FA once he hits the waters.
GravediggerHebner
5/18/2010-3:00pm at 3:00 pm (UTC -4)
Despite (or perhaps because of) my inability to gauge adequate trade offerings, I don’t see the M’s just giving up and trading for “futures.” I have to think they’d do their best to get guys ready to play (and perform reasonably both offensively and defensively) at the MLB level.
All 3 guys you mention as untouchables are closer to what I think the M’s would want than the guys you (and I too) would prefer to send. Quandary.
njstuckintx
5/18/2010-3:05pm at 3:05 pm (UTC -4)
Quandry indeed. I guess if I had to, I’d list them as untouchable this way. Ike, Mejia, Niese, with Ike being the one to hold on to. Theory being you replace Mejia with Lee or Niese with Lee. I’d prefer to hold onto Ike, cause if the plan is to sign Lee at all costs, the whole Gonzi or Fielder pipe dream isn’t going to be there. Ike’s got a glove and power. I’d like him to be around for a long time.
GravediggerHebner
5/18/2010-3:22pm at 3:22 pm (UTC -4)
I sure would too. He’s making a pro-rated $400,000, is years removed from arbitration let alone free agency, and the manager is talking about when, not if, he will be batting clean up (not that the manager is too picky when it comes to that but I think you get me).
trs86
5/18/2010-2:32pm at 2:32 pm (UTC -4)
Possible but they will have to make a move by the deadline either through trade or in the standings.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/18/2010-2:37pm at 2:37 pm (UTC -4)
Here’s my take on Lee’s trade and how it’s impacted from the “lack of attendance”. From what MF has said yesterday, the Mets have sold 1.2M tickets as of 3/31/10. Which is about 800k short of what you would expect. Since the season started, we all know the ticket sales haven’t been all that great. Plus don’t forget the fact that the season ticket holders will sell their tickets at 2ndary markets at under face value if the team isn’t performing well. Hence very little “new” tickets will be sold.
I am 100% sure that the Mets are well aware of the situation AND have lowered their revenue projections this year AND next year based on what has happened so far. What does this mean?
Well usually the budgets are set in the beginning of the year, which means that the Mets will probably have little room to add a SP if needed. But next season’s budget will be cut down significantly based on the revenue projection. So, I think the Mets have room to trade for Lee this season, but ONLY as a 1/2 year rental. And his extension will be decided once the season is over AND new revenue projection/budget is set based on this season’s result.
I know that better performance will bring more butts to Citifield which will bring more revenue. But businesses (the Mets) don’t think like that. Businesses look at revenue projections conservatively and will base it off of past performances. Maybe the Mets will have slightly higher expectation on next year’s revenue, but it’s probably not enough to justify Lee’s $16-18M adder.
johan4cy
5/18/2010-2:42pm at 2:42 pm (UTC -4)
I disagree. Lee would make them legit world series contenders and there is no way they would turn that down given the opportunity.
trs86
5/18/2010-2:43pm at 2:43 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed. Not because of just the winning but because they know and have always followed the model of adding superstar vets = more money for them.
trs86
5/18/2010-2:42pm at 2:42 pm (UTC -4)
DND, I appreciate you bringing the business mold to this equation but that does not fit in sports in NY. The Mets understand that the fanbase needs excitement and Lee would provide that. Again, they were prepared to dump 15 million on Molina AND Pineiro. I don’t think that because they have struggled and attendance is down they will say well we better not spend anymore. They would obviously know that without spending more they will not win more and thus will not sell more tickets.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/18/2010-2:55pm at 2:55 pm (UTC -4)
Molina and Pineiro were before this season where their revenue projection was relatively high. But I would not be surprised if that $15M (or a pro-rated figure) is still on the table for Omar to spend since the budget was already set beginning of this season. So that’s that.
As far as NY Sports team aspect, I agree with you that the better you are, more $$ flows in. But as we all know the Wilpons are “Bottom line” oriented people (not that there’s anything wrong with it). They are not George Steinbrenner. If they don’t feel that their investment gives back any returns, they will not invest. I’m just not so sure that they will invest $40M in 2 pitchers.
Personally, I think bringing in Lee would be great. But IF I was running the Mets, I would be hesitant to give him an extension purely because the Mets continue to fail one season after another under Omar’s regime. And now with the low revenue projection and the cost of the new stadium and terrible PR, I might just take my losses this season and do everything I can to make profit next year.
And NY Islanders and NJ Nets are all NY Metro teams that have performed poorly and now acts like small market teams. So, if the Mets continue down this path, I don’t think it matters whether they are in NY or FL.
prismo
5/18/2010-2:43pm at 2:43 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed DND.
Just look at the Orioles of 10 or so years ago. Great attendance and a high payrolls. The team starts sucking, the fans stop coming, and payroll goes way down. The team fades into obscurity.
Don’t think we’re immune to something similar just because it’s New York.
trs86
5/18/2010-2:44pm at 2:44 pm (UTC -4)
And because of that the Mets would take the opposite approach just like they always have. The Mets have always thrown money at a problem. When was the last time this group did NOT bring in a high profile guy?
prismo
5/18/2010-2:56pm at 2:56 pm (UTC -4)
When was the last time it worked?
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/18/2010-3:06pm at 3:06 pm (UTC -4)
Same point here too. I’m afraid that the Wilpons will change their tactics in throwing money at players especially with some of the prospects coming up.
GravediggerHebner
5/18/2010-3:07pm at 3:07 pm (UTC -4)
Oh snap!
If winning the WS constitutes “worked” then I guess I would have to ask, does Bobby Ojeda count as a high profile guy? If so, 1986 was the last time it worked.
If it has to be a mid-season guy leading to a WS then Lee Mazzilli, but he wasn’t high profile.
WS win aside I think it would have to be Kenny Rogers in 1999, cuz Mike Bordick in 2000, or Roberto Hernandez in 2006 just don’t strike me as high profile guys.
Kingman 26
5/18/2010-3:10pm at 3:10 pm (UTC -4)
The Gary Carter trade?
njstuckintx
5/18/2010-3:14pm at 3:14 pm (UTC -4)
Would piazza be considered? Took 1 1/2 years, but they made the WS. I’m stretching, I know.
Kingman 26
5/18/2010-3:34pm at 3:34 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, Piazza for sure…I was kind of kidding….
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/18/2010-3:22pm at 3:22 pm (UTC -4)
But more recently they were
Johan, KRod, Bay, Putz
are some of examples that the Mets have thrown money to win. Not to mention Ollie.
GravediggerHebner
5/18/2010-3:28pm at 3:28 pm (UTC -4)
Oh OK I was thinking strictly in the context of trade. But either way, did these examples as Prismo asked, work?
Because if “to win” means WS then the answer is no, or at least in the case of all of your examples, not yet.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/18/2010-3:35pm at 3:35 pm (UTC -4)
I think he meant more recent transactions that resulted in ’07, ’08, and ’09 season.
I consider ’06 season as “winning” season even though Adam Bleeping Wainwright happened.
prismo
5/18/2010-3:51pm at 3:51 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed on all counts DND. Making it past the first round or two of the playoffs is definitely enough to count as “winning.”
GravediggerHebner
5/18/2010-3:56pm at 3:56 pm (UTC -4)
So the answer is the last time it worked was 2006 I guess. Seems like a long time ago.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/18/2010-4:27pm at 4:27 pm (UTC -4)
Is that sarcasm I smell Grave?
GravediggerHebner
5/18/2010-4:33pm at 4:33 pm (UTC -4)
Nah that’s just me, I need a shower.
stickguy
5/18/2010-2:47pm at 2:47 pm (UTC -4)
well, a couple of counter points.
1) teams, from my understanding, use a longer term revenue stream projection cycle (3 years? 5 years?) and don’t just add/subtract payroll based on year to year fluctuatins. And given that most contracts are multi-year, and you really can’t adjust quickly.
2) the ticket sales is heavily dependant on wins/playoffs. And the team knows it. So, they know that an investment to put the team over the top should lead to more wins, leading to more ticket sales.
This is the “spend money to make money” theory. or in BB terms, if you build it they will come!
3) tied into the rolling 3 year (or whatever) budgeting cycle, they have at least 36mill+ coming off the books after 2011 (beltran, castillo, ollie), so it is more reasonable to invest the $$ 1 year early (maybe backload to spread it out, as the Mets love to do), if they have a shot at a missing link player.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/18/2010-3:04pm at 3:04 pm (UTC -4)
Good point on #1. But it ties in with your #3. Yes, the payroll is coming off. But you also have Reyes and Wright to think about. Plus you have KRod’s vesting option, Bay’s backloaded contract, Pelf’s FA kicking in. So the bulk of $36M will be offset by all the increases.
So if their payroll remains the same, there’s no room for Lee’s salary.
Kingman 26
5/18/2010-3:03pm at 3:03 pm (UTC -4)
Really, really right on the money here Kistics.
Last year’s situation is clearly why payroll was reduced this year; there is no rational reason to think otherwise, unless one lives in a nicely swaying orange and blue houseboat on the gently undulating Sea of Kool Aid.
Based on everything we have seen over the last year, the idea of a long-term Lee deal seems very unlikely.
And let us not all forget that TV ad revenue is surely lower based on last year’s surely lower ratings, and this year, if things do not change, will be the same pointing towards next year’s revenue.
No matter what anyone says, the Wilpons are not George Steinbrenner or Jerry Jones, willing to spend anything to win. They are not in their boxes jumping up and down every game. They are not lifelong diehard Met fans.
This is strictly a business for them.
Sorry, but “Temper Your Expectations” has become my outlook on pretty much everything regarding this club right now.
Mr North Jersey
5/18/2010-2:45pm at 2:45 pm (UTC -4)
“They would obviously know that without spending more they will not win more and thus will not sell more tickets.”
Sounds like the Yankee philosophy to me.
trs86
5/18/2010-2:48pm at 2:48 pm (UTC -4)
Yup, and they have used it for quite some time now.
johan4cy
5/18/2010-3:12pm at 3:12 pm (UTC -4)
Pedro, Beltran, Delgado, Wagner, Santana, Rodriguez, Putz, Bay
johan4cy
5/18/2010-3:18pm at 3:18 pm (UTC -4)
examples^^^
GravediggerHebner
5/18/2010-3:24pm at 3:24 pm (UTC -4)
While I like Jason Bay, and believe he will improve to wind up with numbers close to typical, I never felt that he “sold tickets.”
“Hey, let’s go see Jason Bay tonight” are words I doubt have ever been uttered by people with entertainment dollars looking to spend them.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/18/2010-3:26pm at 3:26 pm (UTC -4)
Pedro – Bust
Beltran & Delgado – Good
Wagner – Okay
Johan – The team hasn’t won since getting him
KRod – See Johan
Putz – f!@$#@^$
Bay – Yet to find out.
Don’t forget Ollie.
The more recent it gets, the worse it is….
johan4cy
5/18/2010-3:36pm at 3:36 pm (UTC -4)
The point isn’t that these players have brought the Mets a World Series (obviously they didn’t) It’s that the Mets have the same philosophy as the Yankees. Spend, spend, and spend. And the Pedro signing is what opened the door to a new era for the Mets, so it was not a bust at all.
DNDJohan aka kistics
5/18/2010-3:41pm at 3:41 pm (UTC -4)
But spend, spend, and spend was used partly because of SNY and Citifield. But now that the Ad revenue and Citifield revenue is declining steeply (because of ’07-’09 season), I’m not sure if the Wilpons believe in same strategy.
Also every year, Omar’s allowance seems to dwindle as well.
johan4cy
5/18/2010-4:08pm at 4:08 pm (UTC -4)
You’re thinking about it from too much of a business standpoint. That isn’t the way it works for NY baseball. It goes kind of like this:
spend money—> winning —> make money —> able to spend more money —> win more —> make even more money
stickguy
5/18/2010-4:07pm at 4:07 pm (UTC -4)
well, on a brighter note, The Animal has moved up to the 3 hole today, with Wright back in the 4 hole.
johan4cy
5/18/2010-4:11pm at 4:11 pm (UTC -4)
still no francouer? I guess this has turned into a righty/lefty platoon. Francouer even pinch hits against lefties.
GravediggerHebner
5/18/2010-4:13pm at 4:13 pm (UTC -4)
Frenchy’s starting in RF. Bay off.
johan4cy
5/18/2010-4:14pm at 4:14 pm (UTC -4)
oh ok