At the end of spring training, it began to appear to even some of the most optimistic of us that perhaps we were being delusional regarding the starting pitching. Every realistic starting candidate had a pretty awful spring. Sure, spring stats often are not a harbinger of what is to come when the games start counting, but still, the way everyone was getting shelled that last week in Florida was pretty hard to watch.
Johan is Johan, as we all know, and apparently Big Pelf was indeed working on that magical new pitch, and not at all concerning himself with the scoreboard. Maine was shaky, poor, and filled with excuses, Ollie was just plain awful, and Niese was OK. The latter three very much lived up to what their springs foreshadowed.
So what has happened? Omar was roundly pilloried for signing a Dickey with horrid career stats. Most people greeted the Takahashi signing with a yawn. It may be too early for definitive judgments, but Dickey and Taka appear at this point to be masterful and inexpensive replacements who thus far have been superior to Maine and Ollie, whose unfunny duet routine has very possibly seen its last performance on the orange and blue stage. Dickey indeed could be a late-blooming Wakefield, and Takahashi seems to have the stuff and the mental makeup to possibly be a very successful starter.
Score two for Don Omar.
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The signings of Barajas and Blanco were greeted by many of the Nattering Nabobs of Negativity with the usual nonsense: Latinos! Over the hill! Bums! Blah blah blah. Not really noticed by many was the concept that these are two good players.
Barajas, while not exactly Johnny Bench, has always been a very good defensive catcher and a productive hitter with power, and combine that with some serious clutch RBIs, and you have a very pleasantly productive presence behind the plate.
Blanco is also a decent hitter, and came with an excellent reputation with pitchers. The Padre hurlers apparently did not want to see him go, and the Nabobs just could not get their minds around the fact that spending a bit for a guy like Blanco to be the number two, when he was let go by SD entirely for monetary reasons, is precisely the type of move one wants in a big market club.
Score two more for the Don.
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Jason Bay has yet to amass power numbers as he has in the past, but he has been, overall, a very good all-around player. Even when not at his best, he is still hitting and getting on base, he never stops hustling, he is a very smart player, and least surprisingly of all, he is a very good outfielder.
Perhaps it is an I-told-you-so moment, but this can teach us all something about newfangled stats created by armchair experts, who, as pointed out by Jeff Francouer and Raul Ibanez, never played the game, and cannot be entirely trusted to judge its players. All over the media we read how Bay was a poor outfielder, and “defensively challengedâ€â€”largely due to reading UZR and similar numbers.
Some of us did try to point out that left field in Fenway, as memorably demonstrated by Lastings Milledge, is not America’s easiest outfield spot. In addition, left at Fenway has been patrolled over the years by Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Jim Rice, Mike Greenwell, and Manny Ramirez. Not Gold Glovers all, but also not a bad lineage for a position.
Some also tried to point out that in Bay’s 199 games in LF in Fenway, he had 20 assists and 1 error. Yes, one. Which is now almost a two-year-old error. He did not make an error last year and has yet to make one this year. How many balls have we watched Bay not get to which we think he should have? Has there been one?
So next time we are told that someone who has pretty darn good conventional defensive stats is actually a bad fielder, and the evidence given is a very new, very flawed, very amateur, and often very silly stat which can be quite useless for small samples and especially so for certain ballparks and certain situations, we need to investigate the player’s whole statistical profile before giving the UZR crew credit which, in this case, they most comically do not deserve.
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There is a lot of season left, and the Mets are always pumped for the Yankees and the Phillies. Indeed, maybe the Phils just are not quite the offensive juggernaut when they don’t know what pitch is coming. Still, what was achieved in the last series was monumental. And the repeated comparisons to the 1969 staff really just cannot be bad either.
Citi Field is evolving into a huge home field advantage for the Mets. For all the complaining about us not hitting homers and all of the outrageous nonsense targeted at David Wright, championships are won from the mound. Met history has always been based on pitching leading the way, and the improved pitching combined with players finally getting adjusted to Citi can make the squad among baseball’s very best at home.
Letting Ike Davis have a month in AAA and bringing him up first, letting the rest of the Junior Core quietly develop together, handling Mejia with kid gloves, getting Mike Jacobs out of the lineup, getting Ollie and Maine out of the rotation, trying to move Jose to 3rd then moving him back to leadoff, finally finding a good lineup after much experimentation and sticking with it—all of this must be recognized as excellent baseball management by those of us who were beginning to lose faith after the Marlins series.
The team has been playing crisper ball, not making the mental errors of the recent past, hitting behind the runner, picking up the RBI with men on 3rd, and making things happen up and down the lineup.
And the bullpen, the one area of the team which most of us agreed would be a strength, has largely been exactly that.
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The rest of this season is going to be a showcase for what is to come. This team has a very bright future, regardless of what the rest of 2010 brings, and regardless of whether or not the Wilpons spend big in the offseason.
The veteran talent is there, the hustle is there, and the youngsters are there. Beltran’s absence may indeed be a blessing. Pagan may in fact be a fine player. The team succeeding without Beltran can only make it even better if Carlos does in fact decide to play this year. At this point, the feeling here is ambivalence. Maine and Ollie are the past, and so is Beltran. There is virtually zero chance that he will sign again with the Mets for another huge deal, and winning without Carlos while shedding our dependency on him and the eternal wait for his return can only make the future even brighter.
How beautiful would it be if Pagan plays well all year and FMart recovers, has a great summer, and tears it up next spring? A 1986-Met-style 3-man platoon in CF and RF for 2011? Wouldn’t you like to be a fly on the wall of Scott Boras’ subterranean Hades home when he hears Omar announce this one-year experiment next spring?
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Refusing to allow Pedro to try to finish the 9th last night was, to this writer, another example of how we are saddled with a second-rate manager. There are no guarantees, but Feliciano has been so good for so long, why not just give him a chance?
Regardless, the intense adversity the team faced when 4-8 and after the Marlins’ sweep very possibly has strengthened them as a group and maybe helped them develop an us-against-the-world mentality, which may have toughened them in a seriously valuable way.
Let’s see how this six game trip goes. It says here that the future is bright even if we go 0-6. But should we go 4-2 or better, even this temporarily disgusted fan for 37 years will be back on the bandwagon of Catatonic Optimism and planning costly improvements to the Official Float of the Parade of Partial Positiviality.
13 comments
wannybackstra
5/29/2010-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
How about a debit for removing Johan during a shutout?
ceetar
5/29/2010-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
not just a shutout, but a shutout where he’d only thrown 105 pitches and had retired something like 11 straight.
The idea that you should ever remove a pitcher pitching well for a pitcher who you don’t if he will or not (twice) always infuriates me.
Kingman 26
5/29/2010-10:48am at 10:48 am (UTC -4)
Hey Wanny—
I have consistently felt that Jerry is absolutely awful, and was trying not to sully a basically optimistic post.
Definitely should have either left Johan in or let Pedro try to pitch the 9th.
The only downside to the resurgence is that it strengthens Jerry’s hold on the job.
metsfan4decades
5/29/2010-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
I could have went either way on that decision. Only b/c the 3 outs Johan got in the 8th were well hit balls mostly deep to the outfield. If we had even just one run, I would have definitely trotted him out there for the 9th.
But…the last man I think should have pitched in the 9th was Iggy (well, Ollie aside). His first 2 outings since he’s been back were not good. Hindsight is always 20/20 but Pedro or even Mejia would have been a better choice.
I’ve always hated Manuel’s management of the BP….
ceetar
5/29/2010-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
fair points. Manuel being a second rate manager may be in overestimate though.
I would’ve left Santana in. Or brought in a reliever for the whole inning.
Beltran’s continued injury has allowed us (more realistically, the Mets) to see how solid Pagan is. Another win for the Mets farm system there right? I disagree that there is zero chance he’ll resign, but i won’t worry about that until it’s time. Him getting back this year and playing healthily through next year with the injury behind him and winning a World Series MVP could go a long way.
Ollie and Maine are not behind us, and that’s been the biggest failure of the coaching staff so far, especially as they’ve only gotten 8 starts and Maine was good in 75% of his changed mechanics starts. Hopefully his velocity bumps back up with the rest, and he can find a arm slot that doesn’t hurt his shoulder but still allows him to be effective. Same with Ollie, who isn’t succeeding with his new mechanics, lost velocity, and is likely being handicapped by too many voices, or not enough voices.
I like Takahashi, and he may be fine, but it’s foolish to expect Dickey to be a mainstay in the rotation. Ollie will be back soon, it’s inevitable, and the Mets know it, so they should be working towards making it worthwhile when it happens.
Kingman 26
5/29/2010-10:51am at 10:51 am (UTC -4)
Totally disagree on Beltran, Maine and Ollie.
Maine’s arm slot can be anywhere, but if he cannot hit 90+ and cannot improve his control (along with his ceaseless injuries and childish mentality) he is not a serious MLB starter.
ceetar
5/29/2010-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
he’s hit 90 occasionally recently but was pitching with the tendinitis. He hit 92 after the injury last year. So hard to say he’s just done. The injuries are troublesome and i wonder if it’s a result of his more natural mechanics.
I don’t think he has a childish mentality, just a childish manager. Turns out he was right, he could’ve pitched through it. There’s a lot wrong there on both sides and I’m not going into it, but Maine competed and wanted to compete and all his comments were focused on that. That’s fine with me. It’s the other guys jobs to analyze that if he can or cannot pitch.
trs86
5/29/2010-11:28am at 11:28 am (UTC -4)
Yeah he could have pitched through it for sure. Pitching 85 tops with no control.
I don’t like Jerry at all but lets put the blame where this one belongs. Maine.
ceetar
5/29/2010-11:29am at 11:29 am (UTC -4)
Someone tell Salty that I’m pitching both Chicago starters today. be warned!
stickguy
5/29/2010-11:35am at 11:35 am (UTC -4)
nice peice. welcome back. About the only thing I disagree with is Mejia, who never should have been on the roster. Jacobs too, I would rather have seen Carter coming out of ST. But at least the rectified that problem quickly.
I was actually happy with the 5 players you mentioned. I was firmly in the barajas over Molina camp, and thought the pitchers were all good value signings, supplying needed depth. So props to Omar there.
But, Jerry is the thorn that just keeps poking you. I honestly think that they win when the can minimalize his involvment, but once it gets to a close, crunch time game, more often than not he will make the bonehead decision that may not directly cost them the game (but does sometimes), but at least puts them in a better position to lose.
And I know we are probably stuck with him unless the team totally tanks (which I don’t think it will). It just gets frustrating watching them hover around .500, knowing that is enough to keep Jerry on the job, but really feeling they could be doing better.
metsfan4decades
5/29/2010-12:02pm at 12:02 pm (UTC -4)
‘The Don’…..LOL
This is the way I see it:
- The BP allowed this team to stay within striking distance the first 6 weeks b/c the BP really was this team’s strength when the offense and most of the SP wasn’t getting it done.
- Now, a couple of the arms that made that BP so good are ‘forced’ into the rotation (yeah and how strange does that sound?)
- We’re playing with basically a 24 man team b/c of Perez. Whatever the plan is right now – and I have to believe it’s who is calling whose bluff first – it’s going to start costing. Perez could have pitched that 9th in the 8-0 win against the Phils. The fact that he wasn’t used there speaks volumes, IMO. Also….why not start him today on a short leash? If he tanks, more ammunition to force someone’s hand. If he pitches a good ballgame, more better for us.
I still believe, as I have since day 1 this season, this team has the pieces to compete. –If done properly. There are several games that could have went either way, based on in game managerial decisions – that we lost and we’ll never know if they could have been won had a different decision been made. Like last night’s ball game.
I believe Mejia should have started out in the minors. Would have been that closer to knowing what we have in regards to him being a starter. Right now, we have no idea, and with the state of the BP it’s even less likely he’ll be sent down right now.
I’m happy they basically admitted the failed experiments of Cat and Jacobs early on and rectified that. I thought Blanco and Barajas good pickups based on what was available and 6-7 weeks in, I think all have to agree they were good signings.
Last point: While not the same league as Beltran, Pagan has almost been a god-send as the replacement CF. If we have to miss Beltran, which wasn’t a known until the end of January and the duration of his recovery unsure until these past couple of weeks – we’re damn lucky Pagan was on the roster going in.
Mr North Jersey
5/29/2010-12:07pm at 12:07 pm (UTC -4)
If I have learned anything is that predicting what the future holds for the Mets is a dangerous game.
Now with Memorial Day weekend upon us and more than 1/4 way through the season I will try to reflect at what the Mets starters have done and not try to project what is up ahead.
STARTERS
At the start of the season the biggest complaint was that the Mets needed another frontline pitcher to go along with Santana so the Mets could have a chance at the post season.
Mike Pelfrey has stepped up and filled that role admirably through the 1st quarter of the season.
What can be said about Johan Santana ? He has given the Mets what they asked for and it is sad that he only has 4 wins to show for it. He could easily have 7 or 8 wins by now with just a little offensive support.
Jonathon Niese has pitched like a rookie showing flashes of how good he can be when he is on but still learning how to be consistent.
John Maine sadly so far just doesn’t have that 94mph fastball that he made hitters miss with in years past and even his rededicated efforts to go back to old mechanics along with throwing 94% fastballs has not brought it back and it may never come back at this point.
Oliver Perez has been probably the most disappointing. The man simply for whatever reason can’t put it together and worse has put the pen in a hole in 2 ways. The 1st way was with his inability to give innings forced going to the pen early and 2nd with his refusal to go down to minors has the Mets 1 man down in the pen because the powers that be refuse to have him pitch in games apparently until he shows in what has to be a side session that he has fixed whatever problems he was having.
Omar Minaya said he felt Maine, Ollie and Pelfrey could regain their form and pitch like they did in years past and so far Maine and Ollie are failing and Pelfrey is exceeding.
Minaya’s signing of R.A. Dickey has proved to be a good one through 2 starts and merits further watching to see if he can continue to pitch this well.
Hisanori Takahashi is another starter Minaya signed that made the team as a long man out of the pen. Takahashi has pitched well from both the pen and lately as a starter putting Maine or Ollie’s future as a starter in jeopardy. As Takahashi goes through the league what will merit watching is what adjustments the league makes and if it will have any effect.
GravediggerHebner
5/29/2010-4:15pm at 4:15 pm (UTC -4)
Can’t argue strongly against anything in this post.
I guess I would say I’m more concerned with how R.A. Dickey’s season may unfold than you sound, but if I consider him as a 5th starter following Santana/Pelfrey/Takahashi/Niese all I really want from him is to be a bit better than Maine or Perez and that would seem an incredibly easy-to-surmount low bar for Dickey. To me the biggest positive about Dickey is that while he may prove to be inconsistent even in that he will be more useful than Perez or Maine due to his bounceback ability as a knuckleballer. Maine & Perez are dead to me, I concur when you refer to them as “the past.”
I was always quite happy with how the catchers shook out. “Not Molina” and to a lesser extent “not Santos” was pretty much my off-season mantra and so far so good on the catching front.
As far as Bay and UZR, I wanted so much for UZR to be a meaningful way to evaluate defense and all I can say about that is that over the last 6 months as I’ve tried to better understand and utilize that metric, the more it has failed me and failed to impress me. I consider myself wiser for the experience of having embraced it only to have it leave me at the altar. I do hold out hope that someday it will be fine tuned to be more accurate but my breath is not held.
As pleased as I am with the seeming home field advantage I am just as concerned with the road woes. That needs to improve.
Beltran is dead to me. I’ll believe him when I see him. One of the aspects of 2010 that I am most grateful for is the organizations change of tack as far as “waiting for the cavalry,” this season they seem (perhaps due to managing/general managing with very short leashes) much more inclined to move forward rather than wait on players to get healthy/figure out how to use their alleged talents.
I have been less anti-Jerry than the average fan but even I was appalled last night when Johan didn’t take the mound for the 9th.
Overall the team has been roughly what I thought it would, inconsistent and around .500, which because those were my expectations I cannot complain about. 2 months in perhaps the best thing I can say about the 2010 Mets season is that it’s been far more fun to watch than 2009. It’s not always obvious to me and it doesn’t always show up in results but overall there is much more “life” to this bunch.