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May 31

Ceetar’s Optimist’s Dossier

ceetarsmemorialdossier

Memorial Day is one of those points in a baseball season that many analysts tout as the beginning of summer and the first real point to perform a real evaluation of a team.  Today is Memorial Day, and the Mets are playing an extremely late night game in San Diego. They sit at just one game above .500 on the season, albeit right in the playoff hunt.

There are quite a few things for the Mets to adjust right now, many of them almost a given to make the team better.  I’ve discussed some of them here, and at Optimistic Mets Fan, and on Twitter.  Gary Matthews Jr. no longer has a place on this team.   The manager is a disaster.  Certain bullpen members are overworked.  The team has no obvious plan regarding what to do with Oliver Perez.  David Wright’s swing seems fairly screwed up.  Luis Castillo has a bone bruise that may or may not require some extended rest.   Jeff Francoeur may or may not be capable of being a major league player, particularly against right-handed pitchers.  There is always the Jennry Mejia situation.

Still, the Mets are in a good position.  They’ve learned a lot about some relievers, some starters. They’ve learned which bench guys are most trustworthy for what roles, who’s having a good year, who’s struggling, and what attitude this team goes into games with.  They’ve learned Reyes is going to be just fine.

Reyes, the guy whose success supposedly most closely dictates the Mets success is going to be just fine.  He got off to an awfully slow start off the ’09 injury and the thyroid issue of Spring Training.  As we round out May, Jose Reyes has raised his batting average to .257.  He is hitting .500 over the last seven days with a 1.343 OPS.  Over the last two weeks he’s hitting .358 with a .902 OPS, 5 XBH, and 9 runs scored.  The only thing he’s not doing is walking, only drawing one unintentional walk over the last two weeks, but when you’re seeing the ball as well as he is you want to make things happen, not necessary take walks.

Another big cause for optimism is Angel Pagan.  While the news on Beltran has not gotten better all season, his replacement is performing great.  There was a post put out recently that shows Angel Pagan as one of the top handful of players in the league according to WAR (Wins Above Replacement).   While the Mets need Carlos Beltran back, Angel Pagan is helping to make sure the Mets are in contention when he does return.  He’s hitting .295 with 29 runs scored, 22 RBIs and 9 stolen bases.

Last week the Mets dominated the supposedly top of the line offense of the Philadelphia Phillies, shutting them out in three straight games.  The Mets pitching has been very good for a while now, excepting the reliever-as-starter patchwork game on Saturday when Fernando Nieve, one of those overworked relievers, made a start in Milwaukee.

The Mets are only 2.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves, who are winning 6-0 over the Phillies right now to take over first place.  This is definitely in the division race, and now that Jose Reyes and Jason Bay have overcome early season slumps, and the pitching, especially Pelfrey and Santana, has been so good, it’s unlikely the Mets will sustain any long losing streaks, and can begin to make up ground and stay at or around first place.  The recent play of the Phillies has helped suggest that they will live and die with their offense, and that their offense will struggle.  I don’t think they’ll get as high as the 93 wins they had last year, which means the division will remain attainable for the Mets the entire season if they play well.

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73 comments

  1. GravediggerHebner

    I’m very glad you gave some props to Pagan, they are well earned. I shudder to think where this team might be without him.

  2. stickguy

    hey, soemthing besides just Ollie talk. Nice.

    But you make a good point. Even with some “issues”, the mets still have a bunch of talent, and the potential for a good season.

    But, the quicker they address the problem areas, the better they will be.

    Obvious something has to happen with ollie. But I think (hope?) that the next move (well, I HOPE the next move is canning Jerry, but that aint happening) is to release GM. plenty of time devoted to that failed experiment.

    however, I still feel they are goin to make the playoffs.

    and man, what the hell happened to the philly offense?

    1. ceetar

      Phillies have offense? what?

      I’m sorry, “Great” offenses don’t slump this long. and one injury (Rollins) is not a deciding factor.

      Memorial day is one of those classic evaluation points, and I’m hoping the Mets, despite a lot of steps into the 21st century this year (loving that they email me the lineup and postgame notes and press releases and media guide), do use this marker as a time to make some changes. Jesus Feliciano is hitting more than twice what Matthews is.

      1. trs86

        In AAA as a 31 year old guy with no MLB ab’s. A guy that was a minor league FA and no one else signed him. While I don’t care about GMJR either way, lets not make Feliciano into a budding prospect. You might gets some Santos type of return in the beginning there is a better chance you won’t even get that.

        1. stickguy

          well, I won’t hold his age or FA status against him. Lots of guys fall through the cracks for one reason or another, and some even get called up at an “old” age, and actually perform (remember Coste?)

          All I can really do is look at what he is doing right now, and decide that he gives better odds of being useful than GM does.

          Than again, my 19 YO that has only played slow pitch intramural softball since his babe ruth career ended (he is a pretty good 2B though…) just might be more useful. And he did play CF on the softball team that won the championship this year!

        2. ceetar

          I hate this attitude. And I understand the Val Pascucci or Mike Carps of the world generally suck, but Feliciano has been doing it for longer than that, and the guy we’re harping on to replace just flat out sucks.

          It’s not like you’d regret replacing GMJ. Feliciano is hot _right now_ and i know it’s not hte minors, but big deal. If two weeks from now he sucks just as much as GMJ, try the next guy. Or we’d be that much closer to Beltran’s return. Or he’d actually hit, because there are dozens of guys out there that can be servicable if only given the chance. There is very little chance that by making this move we’d look back and say it actually made the team worse.

          1. trs86

            Then you lose depth. GMJR is not hurting anyone nor helping anyone. Bringing up JF for GMJR’s 2 AB’s a week is pointless to me.

          2. stickguy

            unless a viable player would get a few more ABs a week?

            and don’t discount the value of those 2 ABs either!

            I see the point about not burning up all your depth, but GM doesn’t qualify as depth at this point. More like the trash that needs to get taken to the curb. Not like keeping it in the garage for an extra week is going to make it smell any better!

          3. trs86

            I would agree if I had any reason to think that a career .285 .335 .346 .681 in the minor leagues had a good chance of being any better. GMJR is not currently a problem, terrible yes, problem no.

          4. stickguy

            well, I have no idea why, but feliciano for the last few years has been much better than that.

            and I really don’t see why they should keep anyone on the roster who is, in your words, terrible (and my words, worthless), when they have a reasonable alrenative.

            As mush as I want they to resolve some of the big problems, they can still try and fix some of the smaller one.

          5. metsfan4decades

            The only point I’m going to make here in Ceeter’s defense of his opinion is GMJ has 32 PH appearances – of which he has 19 (19!) strikeouts, I believe 2 walks and 2 hits.

            If all he’s going to be on this team is a PH, we have to do better than that…..

          6. trs86

            Feliciano is not even Chris Carter Ceetar. He has a career MILB line of .285 .335 .346 .681. This is the only season he has ever even had an OPS over .800. What makes us think he would even be as good as GMJR?

          7. trs86

            6 PA in the last 14 days. And yeah they could use another guy more if called up but why would they? Would you want the LH Feliciano getting PH AB’s over Carter?

          8. ceetar

            That line, even if you take off 25% is better than GMJ. and that’s assuming that his hot streak right now would not translate over to MLB. Just because GMJ is not a ‘problem’ does not mean you may win more games by a simple upgrade. How often does one more hit = 1 more win? I don’t think you sacrifice any depth. Even if someone actually picks up Matthews or he retires and doesn’t go to Buffalo. There are plenty of outfielders in the minors.

          9. trs86

            .285 .335 .346 .681 Ceetar.
            We are talking about releasing GMJR and his 3 PA a week for a guy that has a career minor league OPS under .700. Why are we even wasting our time?

          10. ceetar

            Because you can’t get worse, but you may get better.

            Those are career numbers, how about his numbers over the last two seasons? Maybe we get a hot week out of him. a couple of big hits, better clubhouse presence, maybe he knows a good joke.

            3PA a week is what, 50PA the rest of the way? And right now it feels like that’ll be 3-4 extra hits ,and maybe one of them actually makes a difference in the game, resulting in one more win, which could be the difference in the division?

            I relaly see no way it could possibly make the team worse. but a chance, even if you think it’s a small one and Feliciano will likely put up crap numbers, is worth replacing crappy parts.

            on a similar note, Pat Misch sucks. Stoner sucks. What are the chances these guys actually put up better numbers than Perez?

          11. trs86

            Actually Misch has proven that he can produce better numbers in the majors. Under 5.00 ERA in the majors and a 3.50 ERA in the minors with a 1.24 WHIP.

            Stoner also has decent career numbers in the minors with an ERA under 4.00 and a low WHIP. I have no idea what he would do as a starter in the majors as he has not done it.

            If either of these guys replaced Perez, which they did not, they would have much more of an impact than a 3PA per week guy.

            Again, I just don’t see the point.

            How could it make the team worse? Not sure, why would it make the team better? What’s the purpose?

          12. Mr North Jersey

            GMJ is a piece of shit. His only purpose is to be a decent defensive Center Fielder when Pagan is not in the game.

            He has no other purpose and if he ever showed that he couldnt play CF he’d be cut immediately.

            His .179/BA and .258/OBP is a joke.

            If Pagan ever got hurt and the Mets needed someone to play CF everyday it still would not be GMJ. The Mets would either trade or bring up Feliciano or Capt Kirk because there is no way you can carry that .179/BA in the lineup.

          13. trs86

            Actually they would most likely just be screwed.

            Easy with the language today.

            My point is not to defend GMJR but say that releasing his 3 PA a week for a guy that has an OPS under .700 in the minors is a pointless debate.

          14. trs86

            Looking at it, Pridie would be the logical choice as he at least has an OPS over .700 for his career and has actually played more than 5 games in CF this season.

          15. ceetar

            Pridie healthy again yet? That’d be fine.

            Oliver has no impact on the team right now right? He’s a 1ip a week guy, so why replace him? Is the last bullpen guy worth more than the last bench guy? How about we release GMJ and bring up another pitcher instead?

          16. Mr North Jersey

            Sorry GMJ is a piece of POOP/DUDU/CACA whatever works best for you.

            I understand you and ceet are discussing the merits of cutting GMJ for Feliciano or not and I will refrain from getting into that debate and let you guys enjoy that by yourself.

            I simply wanted to say what I thought of GMJ and why he is on the team.

          17. trs86

            I do think you have a point on why he is here instead of Feliciano. Feliciano has only played 5 games in CF this year and has no MLB experience. I am guessing like it or not the Mets value GMJR’s defense over Feliciano’s chance at hitting.

          18. Mr North Jersey

            Well it was not my intent to interject in you and ceet’s debate about Feliciano or GMJ but hey if that helps in further makeing the pointless debate you are having with Ceet that is good for you I guess.

            LoL

      2. Mr North Jersey

        I think ESPN Deportes had it where the only other time the Mets swept swept a 3 game series with all shutouts was in 1969 when the finished 1st and the last time a team shutout another team in a 3 game series was the 2004 Twins who also finished in 1st place in their division. The suggestion being will this team win the division?

        http://espndeportes.espn.go.com/videohub/video/clipDeportes?id=1030859

        1. stickguy

          if the phillies keep scoring about 4 runs per week, someone else certainly will win the division!

          hey, they are already in 2nd place, and only 3 games out of the division basement. So another week like last week, and they certainly could be looking up the Nats arse!

  3. Mr North Jersey

    Here is some food for thought.

    The Braves have taken over 1st place in the NL East. If the Mets couldn’t be in 1st place who would you rather see there from the NL East?

    The Phillies
    The Braves
    The Marlins
    The Nationals

    Of course for me that one is easy.

    1. trs86

      UH the Mets. I hate them all.

      1. Mr North Jersey

        Uh its obvious the Mets would be the 1st choice.

        The point is of all your enemies who would you least hate winning the division?

        Unless you hate them all evenly which then it doesnt matter and this question is not for you.

      2. metsfan4decades

        Ha! Spoken like a true orange and blue Met fan!

    2. ceetar

      Marlins or Nationals, because they suck most and it would mean the Mets would be closer to the top.

      1. Mr North Jersey

        Agreed Ceet I would rather have the team that sucked most win the division rather than seeing the braves or phillies win it again. Being a fan of the underdog I would rather see the Nats win it than the Marlins if I had to choose.

        1. metsfan4decades

          On that note, Phillies lose again today.

          Nothing better to end this Memorial day. Now onto the night and a Met win over the Padres….

          1. Mr North Jersey

            Hopefully braves and phils clobber themselves and we sweep in San Diego.

          2. stickguy

            hopefully an asteroid falls on the stadium.

            oh wait, too mean?

            Sorry.

            How about a massive bacteria outbreak in the post game clubhouse spreads?

    3. metsfan4decades

      If we can’t win it, the team least offensive to me winning it is the Nats.
      However…right now I’d like to see the Marlins in first b/c I think they’re the worst team in the NL East and the most likely to slide.

      1. Mr North Jersey

        Nice observation 4D. :-)

      2. stickguy

        I am with you. Nats all the way. it would at least make my sister happy.

        1. Mr North Jersey

          She’s a Nats fan?

          1. stickguy

            yup. season ticket holder.

            Not sure how this happened, since she is the one that really got me hooked back in the early 70′s (she is 3 years older than I am).

            You are too young. Maybe Gate or MF remember this, but in 1973 Diary lea (sp?) milk gave out free tickets. Save carton panels, send them in for tickets. Based on that year, and the gallons of milk she drank, I doubt she will ever get osteoporosis. Not sure if my parents ever figured out it would be cheaper to buy the nose bleed tickets instead of all the extra milk!

            She has lived in No. Virginia for most of the last 25 years, so I gues it is here right to have a local team!

          2. Mr North Jersey

            Nice story. Yes that is a lil b4 my time because in 1973 i was 4 yrs old. :-)

            25yrs in Virginia I guess would have something to do with her being a Nats fan.

  4. metsfan4decades

    This team is the true definition of a roller coaster ride. Are we a .500 team? Or are we contenders?

    Post/poll in the beginning of the season on this blog asked Met fans that question. Of all the answers only Ceetar had the Mets finishing first. Remember that guys come September. We might all be congratulating him on his always logical, ever faithful optimism….

    I had the Mets finishing second – simply b/c I didn’t trust their SP pitching – namely Maine and Perez, to a lesser extent Pelf. Right now both Maine and Perez are out of the rotation and we’re doing better without them. Pelfrey’s numbers speak for themselves. We just might be that contending team we all hoped they would be this year.

    The games we won the first 6 weeks of the season were more the scratch out a couple of runs, take advantage of the opposition’s poor play, and BP doing it’s job – type of wins. These past 2 weeks, that has changed. We’re playing good defensive crisp baseball. Our offense has picked up (and thank you Pagan and Barajas for keeping us in it w/o the rest of the bats during that time). Our SP has been much better. Our BP is somewhat of a problem but get rid of the dead wood out there (cough* Ollie cough*) and it may solidify itself again.

    As far as our illustrious manager….we all know as long as this is a contending team, Jerry will be around to lead the charge. I can only hope our guys can win in spite of his ‘I’ll bat Tatis clean-up’ type of decisions.

    LGM!

    1. Mr North Jersey

      Hey 4d it would sure be nice if we could just get to 10 games above .500 for a change before we start spiraling back down toward .500.

      1. metsfan4decades

        For sure. If they can just get over this problem with winning on the road….

        1. ceetar

          Big series. If they win it, split the roadtrip, 2-games over .500 and playing two ‘eh’ teams at home with a real chance to put .500 behind them for good. (I dunno, the Padres _do_ suck right?)

          1. stickguy

            it seems like on paper they do. But somehow that isn’t translating into the standings.

            usually that ends up fixing itself by the end of the year, but hopefully it starts adjusting this weekend!

            they really, really need 2-3. Another .333 road trip and going home at .500 just isn’t going to git ‘er dun.

        2. Mr North Jersey

          If we can take 2 out of 3 we finish with a .500 road trip.

          Cant ask for more than that. Well we can but lets wait to see if we win the 1st 2 games of this series. ;-)

    2. stickguy

      Good thoughts.

      But, I think they can still make the playoffs. They are as good as just about any other team in the NL, potentially.

      And frankly, with Pagan and barajas established, and Davis settling in, and the new rotation, they are a better team right now than they were when they started the season.

      My big fear is they do good enough to convince the Wilpons to give Jerry an extension (and IMO even if they make the playoffs, it will be despite jerry, not because of him)

      And you can hold me to this. If Jerry is managing the team next year, I am going to boycott!

      1. Mr North Jersey

        LoL I can see it now. Hey look at that guy carrying a stick with a sign on it! It’s Stickguy!

        1. stickguy

          nah, that would be an activist approach.

          I was thinking more along the lines of a “what the hell ever happened to stickguy” boycott.

  5. ceetar

    On that note, can someone please tell me why I only have 8gigs of free space on my hard drive and can’t seem to find anything worth deleting? WHATS TAKING UP ALL THE SPACE? *swears*

    1. Mr North Jersey

      How big is your HD Overall?

    2. stickguy

      I only have a 40 gig HD (yes, it is an old machine), and have to occasionally find things to cut back.

      Damn near 1/2 is my itunes, and my wife’s pictures. Have to keep having her back up and delete those. Pictures take up a ton of space.

      Most programs don’t take up that much space. But they do add up.

      1. ceetar

        I have 150gigs, partioned into two ~70 drives. D is mostly fine, that’s where the 45-50gigs of my pictures are, and music, which I’ve mostly copied to an external(Terrabyte! woo!) at this point, and downloaded lost eps (yeah, I still have 7 left) and other crap from TV I lost when Optimum’s DVR failed..again.

        the main drive with the OS is the one that’s seemingly full. I have a couple of games, but nothing fully taking up space. I used to have some spacemonger program, but I think it got fried/lost recently.

        1. Mr North Jersey

          Ceet try isolating where most of the space is being used on your C: Drive.

          I usually will open windows explorer browse to My Documents 1st and see how much space is there. I check the following folders,

          C:\Documents and Settings\profile name\My Documents
          C:\Documents and Settings\profile name\Local Settings
          C:\Program Files

          Usually the culprit is in a sub directory in Local settings or a misc folder that has been forgotten about in My Documents.

          Of course this is without having any idea of the number of programs that are installed and the type of programs ie Suites or large video editing or graphics programs.

          1. ceetar

            Photoshop and Sims3 and Visual Studio take up a bunch of space on their own obviously.

            Google Chrome seems to be eating 5gigs in local history files though. odd, that.

  6. Mr North Jersey

    Don’t look now but Tim Lincecum’s last 3 starts look like this.

    May 20
    5.0/IP 5/H 5/R 5/ER 1/HR 5/BB 6/SO

    May 26
    4.2/IP 6/H 6/R 6/ER 0/HR 5/BB 5/SO

    May 31
    5.2/IP 6/H 4/R 3/ER 0/HR 5/BB 3/SO

    You hope he is just in a mini funk.

    1. metsfan4decades

      As good as Lincecum is, he doesn’t hold a candle to Jimenez this year.

      Watched part of that game today. Jimenez – 9 innings, 4 hits, no runs, 2 walks, 9 Ks and a .078 ERA.

      And to think he could have been a Met. At least give some credit to the Met scout who found him and tried to sign him when he was 18…..

    2. stickguy

      He is not on the mets. And the giants are a WC contender. so, I hope it is a very long term funk!

      Unless you think the mets can get him for ollie and Murphy?

      1. metsfan4decades

        LOL – hardly stick.

        I was just making reference to the fact that we tried to sign him but his parents talked him into going to school instead. Just wishing out loud…..

      2. darknova306

        Agreed, anything that hurts other WC contenders is alright by me. And he’s not on any of my fantasy teams… ;)

      3. Mr North Jersey

        Well as a fan of baseball why would i wish a great pitcher ill? Especially one that isn’t a division rival. If the Mets are fortunate enough to face him in the post season sign me up for that right now.

  7. ceetar

    I assume it’s not worth complaining about Cora second anymore right?

    1. darknova306

      Jerry is apparently dead set on second basemen batting second. Isn’t that how baseball is supposed to be played? Ugh.

    2. Mr North Jersey

      :-) Dude they just had 16 hits with Tatis in the 4 hole. Let the man work his MoJo. :-)

      1. metsfan4decades

        Ha! I believe Tatis and Bay were the only 2 w/o a hit in yesterday’s game. Even Dickey got a hit…..

        1. Mr North Jersey

          4D They didn’t have a hit because they wanted the other guys to have em. ;-) LoL

    3. trs86

      My problem is now that I like Pagan batting 6th behind Wright. So now who else would bat 2nd?

  8. metsfan4decades

    This from a poster on J. Weitzel’s game day thread for the Phillies game on Beerleaguer:

    **********************************
    Many BLers disagreed with JW, but it’s starting to look awfully fishy that a team that scored 10 runs off of Johan Santana has suddenly gone so cold after having been caught stealing signs (and after being accused by multiple opposing teams/players of having done so for quite some time).

    One or two bats in a slump is one thing. This is the entire lineup. If it’s a coincidence, it’s one hell of an unlikely coincidence that seems to keep occurring night after night.

    At some point, the press is going to jump on this, and the question is going to be this: how much of the Phillies 2007-2009 offense is a result of honest baseball?

    I’m certainly not happy about saying this, but I’d be burying my head in the sand if I didn’t take notice.
    *******************************************

    Oh, how the mighty have fallen…..

    1. darknova306

      This is starting to get pretty crazy. For that offense to go this quiet for this long this suddenly… Definitely makes you think. Either way, it’s encouraging for our team’s chances.

    2. Mr North Jersey

      Great job at infiltrating Beer Leaguer as a philly fan 4D. ;-)

      1. ceetar

        speaking of beer, watching beerfest. can’t wait until I get to brewfest in a month.

      2. metsfan4decades

        LOL – I only read, I never troll. Although from time to time I’ve been tempted. Here’s an example….beginning of this month, when things were going well for them, they spent some time discussing the SP rotation for the playoffs.

        All I kept thinking was: Post season? You’re talking about post season in May?
        As Met fans we know better than to count our chickens until their hatched….

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