I think if life were in a bubble and like fantasy baseball I would choose Lee. It’s not so….
I think best fit may be Haren or Oswalt. After that I think it sides back towards guys like Millwood and Westbrook. My fear with Lee is the cost long-term.
How long haven’t we been saying we need a #2? We wanted Halladay or Lackey but neither happened. Now Lee has become the desire of Mets fans who know that without a #2 there’s little chance of making it all the way.
Thing is, not many players of Lee’s caliber become available any more, especially not if they’re under 30. So if not Lee then who?
Taking a look at top 35 SP WAR leaders for past 3 seasons, how many of these guys will become available within the next season or two?
Roy Halladay
Tim Lincecum
Cliff Lee
Zack Greinke
CC Sabathia
Dan Haren
Justin Verlander
Jon Lester
Ubaldo Jimenez
Felix Hernandez
Javier Vazquez
Josh Beckett
Adam Wainwright
Ryan Dempster
John Danks
James Shields
A.J. Burnett
Jered Weaver
Andy Pettitte
Johan Santana
Cole Hamels
Matt Cain
Mark Buehrle
Ricky Nolasco
Chad Billingsley
Derek Lowe
Scott Baker
Roy Oswalt
Ervin Santana
Gavin Floyd
Jair Jurrjens
Wandy Rodriguez
Aaron Cook
Matt Garza
Ted Lilly
Maybe we don’t need one of these guys if Pelf establishes himself as a #2. Me, I’d rather have 3 guys that can be considered top of the rotation pitchers. There may be a cost in prospects, but considering Lee would be just a rental, the Mariners can’t expect to get much back in return.
The Red Sox didn’t have a problem giving Lackey a $82.5M/5yr deal despite his previous injuries and being 31. The Yankees didn’t have a problem giving Burnett a $82.5M/5yr deal despite him being 32. The Phillies didn’t have a problem giving Halladay a $80M/4yr deal though he’s 33.
So while a four or five year deal for Lee may not be ideal, there comes a time when you have to do the deal if you want to win it all. Santana – Lee – Pelfrey combined with the Mets offense will make the Mets as legit a contender as the Phillies or any other team. Plus, while saving money with the influx of young players to the 25 man roster, the Mets should be able to splurge on big ticket Free Agents, especially after next year when Beltran, Perez, Castillo, Francouer and Maine come off the books.
Yet, I know Omar won’t do this because he’ll “trust his guys” and bring in some marginal player instead and if everything goes right (Braves, Phillies and Marlins get some injuries) we’ll be contenders. There’s no point in getting my hopes up.
I think at this rate, Maine would be non-tendered at the end of this season.
Lee would want at least Lackey’s money as they are same age, but Lee has better track record. I’m not sure if you want to invest that type of money for him where you can get Oswalt (who is 1 year older) with cheaper/shorter contract. OR sign Vasquez for shorter contract when he becomes a FA.
Absolutely, and I certainly hope he continue to pitch as he has. Maybe he’ll be next to get a contract extension. But I still think the Mets are in a good position to bring in another top starter. Of course, I’m a spender.
Dirty usually does the weekly fantasy roundup, I think his real life schedule has changed so not sure exactly when to expect it. But yes both of you guys had very impressive weeks no doubt, especially that 15-3 you doled out NJstuck!
saltygary
6/7/2010-3:44pm at 3:44 pm (UTC -4)
njstuckintx
6/7/2010-3:48pm at 3:48 pm (UTC -4)
Let’s see how optimistic he’s feeing after that beat down! Kidding Ceet, Kidding…
At with him, once you trade, you have a 29 YO locked up for 2 more years at 2/29 or 3/41 if you exercise his option.
with Lee, you trade guys, then either end up with a couple of draft picks when he walks, or you give a 32YO a 5/90+ contract.
I prefer Haren thank you.
of course, no guarantee he will actually be available (lee seems like a safer bet to be), and we don’t know what the actual cost will be. I just don’t see big prospects for a rental.
I also like Haren better.
just stay away from Oswalt, unless they hand him over for 1 stiff prospect and his salary. Bad combination of age, contract, and bad back.
Oswalt is not that old. He’s 1 year older than Lee and 2 years older than Johan. Oswalt had one injury problem in recent years and has been very good thus far this season.
Yes, Haren is the better choice. But I don’t think you could go wrong with Oswalt or Lee. The only problem with Lee, like you said, is giving that 90+M contract.
OH, I think it is more likely that the Mets add Millwood if they add anyone (and I think they should). I am fine with that, if he arrives soon, and comes as a salary dump with no real talent going back.
Just as likely though is Omar decides to hold his cards, and roll the dice that the big three hold up (johan, pelf and neise), and that dickey can keep it up (hee hee), and they still get something out of MO, taka, etc. to cobble together enough rotation to get the job done.
If they do add a SP, and Dickey stays solid, I have no idea what they do with MO when they are ready to pitch again. Maybe Maine to the pen, but Ollie?
24 comments
metsfan4decades
6/7/2010-1:02pm at 1:02 pm (UTC -4)
Well, the one thing all Mets seem to agree on is we need another solid SP. Just difference of opinion on who that SP should be….
trs86
6/7/2010-1:16pm at 1:16 pm (UTC -4)
I think if life were in a bubble and like fantasy baseball I would choose Lee. It’s not so….
I think best fit may be Haren or Oswalt. After that I think it sides back towards guys like Millwood and Westbrook. My fear with Lee is the cost long-term.
DNDJohan aka kistics
6/7/2010-1:20pm at 1:20 pm (UTC -4)
You think the Mets will give up too much for him?
DNDJohan aka kistics
6/7/2010-1:15pm at 1:15 pm (UTC -4)
I like it!!
CaseStreet
6/7/2010-1:56pm at 1:56 pm (UTC -4)
Cliff Lee Completes the Mets 2010 Rotation
How long haven’t we been saying we need a #2? We wanted Halladay or Lackey but neither happened. Now Lee has become the desire of Mets fans who know that without a #2 there’s little chance of making it all the way.
Thing is, not many players of Lee’s caliber become available any more, especially not if they’re under 30. So if not Lee then who?
Taking a look at top 35 SP WAR leaders for past 3 seasons, how many of these guys will become available within the next season or two?
Roy Halladay
Tim Lincecum
Cliff Lee
Zack Greinke
CC Sabathia
Dan Haren
Justin Verlander
Jon Lester
Ubaldo Jimenez
Felix Hernandez
Javier Vazquez
Josh Beckett
Adam Wainwright
Ryan Dempster
John Danks
James Shields
A.J. Burnett
Jered Weaver
Andy Pettitte
Johan Santana
Cole Hamels
Matt Cain
Mark Buehrle
Ricky Nolasco
Chad Billingsley
Derek Lowe
Scott Baker
Roy Oswalt
Ervin Santana
Gavin Floyd
Jair Jurrjens
Wandy Rodriguez
Aaron Cook
Matt Garza
Ted Lilly
Maybe we don’t need one of these guys if Pelf establishes himself as a #2. Me, I’d rather have 3 guys that can be considered top of the rotation pitchers. There may be a cost in prospects, but considering Lee would be just a rental, the Mariners can’t expect to get much back in return.
The Red Sox didn’t have a problem giving Lackey a $82.5M/5yr deal despite his previous injuries and being 31. The Yankees didn’t have a problem giving Burnett a $82.5M/5yr deal despite him being 32. The Phillies didn’t have a problem giving Halladay a $80M/4yr deal though he’s 33.
So while a four or five year deal for Lee may not be ideal, there comes a time when you have to do the deal if you want to win it all. Santana – Lee – Pelfrey combined with the Mets offense will make the Mets as legit a contender as the Phillies or any other team. Plus, while saving money with the influx of young players to the 25 man roster, the Mets should be able to splurge on big ticket Free Agents, especially after next year when Beltran, Perez, Castillo, Francouer and Maine come off the books.
Yet, I know Omar won’t do this because he’ll “trust his guys” and bring in some marginal player instead and if everything goes right (Braves, Phillies and Marlins get some injuries) we’ll be contenders. There’s no point in getting my hopes up.
CaseStreet
6/7/2010-2:02pm at 2:02 pm (UTC -4)
I’d have to imagine any deal for Haren would cost at least our top 3 or 4 prospects considering his relatively cheap contract.
DNDJohan aka kistics
6/7/2010-2:17pm at 2:17 pm (UTC -4)
I think at this rate, Maine would be non-tendered at the end of this season.
Lee would want at least Lackey’s money as they are same age, but Lee has better track record. I’m not sure if you want to invest that type of money for him where you can get Oswalt (who is 1 year older) with cheaper/shorter contract. OR sign Vasquez for shorter contract when he becomes a FA.
prismo
6/7/2010-2:23pm at 2:23 pm (UTC -4)
To be fair, Pelf has pitched like a #1 this season.
Mr North Jersey
6/7/2010-2:26pm at 2:26 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed
CaseStreet
6/7/2010-2:34pm at 2:34 pm (UTC -4)
Absolutely, and I certainly hope he continue to pitch as he has. Maybe he’ll be next to get a contract extension. But I still think the Mets are in a good position to bring in another top starter. Of course, I’m a spender.
prismo
6/7/2010-2:46pm at 2:46 pm (UTC -4)
BTW, Keith Law doing a chat on ESPN in 15 minutes. I submitted a question about Zack Cox.
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/32854/mlb-insider-keith-law
DNDJohan aka kistics
6/7/2010-3:03pm at 3:03 pm (UTC -4)
Looks like Suppan is released.
stickguy
6/7/2010-3:37pm at 3:37 pm (UTC -4)
now that sounds like an omar special.
DNDJohan aka kistics
6/7/2010-3:57pm at 3:57 pm (UTC -4)
LOL! My thoughts exactly.
GravediggerHebner
6/7/2010-3:18pm at 3:18 pm (UTC -4)
2 hours and 18 minutes without a new post on a weekday. Man we are slacking. Boooooooo!
saltygary
6/7/2010-3:26pm at 3:26 pm (UTC -4)
Then post how I knocked out 2 first place teams in a row on the fantasy league and you’re next!
njstuckintx
6/7/2010-3:28pm at 3:28 pm (UTC -4)
Or how Ceet got the snot knocked out of him!
GravediggerHebner
6/7/2010-3:41pm at 3:41 pm (UTC -4)
Dirty usually does the weekly fantasy roundup, I think his real life schedule has changed so not sure exactly when to expect it. But yes both of you guys had very impressive weeks no doubt, especially that 15-3 you doled out NJstuck!
saltygary
6/7/2010-3:44pm at 3:44 pm (UTC -4)
njstuckintx
6/7/2010-3:48pm at 3:48 pm (UTC -4)
Let’s see how optimistic he’s feeing after that beat down! Kidding Ceet, Kidding…
stickguy
6/7/2010-3:43pm at 3:43 pm (UTC -4)
I still like haren. Much more favorable contract.
At with him, once you trade, you have a 29 YO locked up for 2 more years at 2/29 or 3/41 if you exercise his option.
with Lee, you trade guys, then either end up with a couple of draft picks when he walks, or you give a 32YO a 5/90+ contract.
I prefer Haren thank you.
of course, no guarantee he will actually be available (lee seems like a safer bet to be), and we don’t know what the actual cost will be. I just don’t see big prospects for a rental.
I also like Haren better.
just stay away from Oswalt, unless they hand him over for 1 stiff prospect and his salary. Bad combination of age, contract, and bad back.
DNDJohan aka kistics
6/7/2010-4:01pm at 4:01 pm (UTC -4)
Oswalt is not that old. He’s 1 year older than Lee and 2 years older than Johan. Oswalt had one injury problem in recent years and has been very good thus far this season.
Yes, Haren is the better choice. But I don’t think you could go wrong with Oswalt or Lee. The only problem with Lee, like you said, is giving that 90+M contract.
stickguy
6/7/2010-3:46pm at 3:46 pm (UTC -4)
OH, I think it is more likely that the Mets add Millwood if they add anyone (and I think they should). I am fine with that, if he arrives soon, and comes as a salary dump with no real talent going back.
Just as likely though is Omar decides to hold his cards, and roll the dice that the big three hold up (johan, pelf and neise), and that dickey can keep it up (hee hee), and they still get something out of MO, taka, etc. to cobble together enough rotation to get the job done.
If they do add a SP, and Dickey stays solid, I have no idea what they do with MO when they are ready to pitch again. Maybe Maine to the pen, but Ollie?
njstuckintx
6/7/2010-3:48pm at 3:48 pm (UTC -4)
To the Curb with Ollie!