Read my lips: No trading for expensive aces!
With the New York Mets 9 games over .500, in 2nd place 2 1/2 games out of 1st place, there is much talk about them venturing into the trade market and coming out of it with a viable starting pitcher. Except for the most optimistic among us not a lot of people felt the 2010 Mets were a playoff team. “If everything breaks right…” was a popular phrase this spring. So far a lot of things have broken right and the team finds itself in the midst of a race albeit with a lot of season to go. So what to do? Pay for the past?
To The Spoils goes The Victor
On July 30, 2004 the Mets assessed their universe and determined themselves to be contenders. They were 4 games under .500, in 4th place 7 games out of 1st place, and traded one of their best pitching prospects to acquire a viable starting pitcher. Victor Zambrano actually pitched pretty decently for the Mets, making 3 starts, going 2-0 with an ERA of 3.86 but was injured and missed the balance of the season, a season which the Mets finished 20 games under .500 then fired their manager.
Don’t get me wrong, this is not the past that I am concerned about the Mets paying for. That pitching prospect they sent away for Zambrano, Scott Kazmir, has gone on to make a decent amount of money but has never won more than 13 games, has thrown at least 200 innings only once in 5 seasons, and has made more than 27 starts only twice in 5 seasons. In this writer’s opinion he’s been more tease than anything else and in retrospect I don’t miss him much.
The past that I am worried about the Mets paying for is the past performance of a major league starting pitcher. With the Mets seemingly contenders many among us are asking them to go out and get a big-time starter. Someone along the lines of Roy Oswalt or Cliff Lee.
That idea scares this writer, and this is coming from someone who spent all winter yelling that the Mets should sign John Lackey to whatever contract he wanted to come here. What I’ve learned since then is that it’s seldom worth it to pay pitchers on the other side of 30 top dollar when what you wind up paying them for is more their past than their present or future. Even Roy Halladay, while pitching quite well, is currently a pedestrian 8-6 while earning $20 million this year and the next two (and an option for a third) on what right now is a third place club. Where the Phillies are now in the standings and where they might ultimately end up is not my point. My point is Halladay is being paid for his past.
The 2004 ALDS has nothing to do with the Mets, yet they're paying for it 'til 2014
A few years ago the Mets acquired a big-time starter. His name is Johan Santana. They gave up some prospects for him, none who have yet distinguished themselves as major leaugers, and they are not missed. Then they signed him to a lucrative extension that has not yet reached it’s most expensive years. 2 1/2 years later we find Santana is not what he once was. He was great, now he is good. $21 million in 2010 for a good pitcher is one thing, $25 million in 2013 for what’s left of that good pitcher is another. Good is nice, I like good. But it’s not great. And he’s being paid as if he’s great. He’s being paid for his past more than he’s being paid for his present or future.
The 2005 playoff Oswalt is not the 2011 $16 million Oswalt, and paying for the 2005 Playoffs is not the responsibility of the 2011 Mets
In acquiring a Roy Oswalt, the Mets would not only surrender prospects but would also be responsible for paying him $16 million next year while contemplating whether to pay him $16 million in 2012 or buy that out for for a mere $2 million, unless he makes picking up that option mandatory as a consideration in trade in which case there will be no contemplation, there will only be paying $16 million for the past of a 34 year old starting pitcher and hoping he’s still at least good while you’re paying him.
This album holds up over time much better than most starting pitchers
In acquiring a Cliff Lee we have been warned that he is likely to test the free agent market after the current season. So there is no guarantee that the Mets would be paying him huge gobs of money for his past well into his future. In that context he is more desirable to this writer than Oswalt. But is it worth it for a team that was largely not expected to contend, which surprisingly finds itself contending, to surrender prospects for that elusive chance at the brass ring? Is 2010 The Year for the Mets or is it a step in a multi-year process?
If it’s The Year then this writer thinks the appropriate response of the front office is to do what it can to acquire Cliff Lee because he gives the team an enhanced shot at the brass ring without the unfortunate addition of paying him well into the future for his past.
But if 2010 is not The Year then I think the the appropriate response of the front office is either to acquire a lesser starting pitcher the ilk of Kevin Millwood or Jake Westbrook because they should not come at a high prospect cost and they do not come with the requirement that the Mets pay them well into their futures for their pasts, or it’s to acquire no one at all and go with what they’ve got, holding onto their pitching prospects who may provide them with cost-effective presents and futures which is something that none of Roy Oswalt & Cliff Lee or pitchers of their ilk, or Kevin Millwood & Jake Westbrook or pitchers of their ilk, can provide the Mets now and in the future.
If the Mets want an ace they should do what it takes to develop one from their own system. Only then are they likely to get the best years this ace has to offer at a reasonable price. Mike Pelfrey is coming along nicely, Jenrry Mejia is now in the minors transitioning back to starting, Jon Niese has been a very pleasant surprise. Ideally from among them or someone else currently in their minor leagues (Armando Rodriguez? Jeurys Familia? hopefully later this summer Matt Harvey?) the Mets will find their affordable ace, an ace they can pay for his present. Augmenting that ace with decent mid-rotation starters with reasonable salaries that may be acquired from other clubs is best for the organization in the long term and seems a better use of resources to this writer than paying for the past of someone else’s former ace.
130 comments
ceetar
6/21/2010-1:32pm at 1:32 pm (UTC -4)
I’m hestitant to pay a guy based on what he’s done versus what he’ll do. It’s why I didn’t trust signing Lackey. Or even Pineiro. It’s why Oswalt doesn’t necessarily excite me. Lee? I dunno..he seems to be someone that can help, but while Lee doesn’t lock us in for the ‘future’, he also means giving up guys that may be part of the bigger picture. So it’s not so much about is it this year or on the horizon, it’s about balance between them.
Currently the Mets are not desperate for starting pitching. Yes, they could upgrade under the assumption that someone will get hurt, or that Dickey and Takahashi will not excel the entire season in this role.
But they’ve been pitching well, and can get by for sure without needing a super-Ace type guy. Particularly if he means that you have to give up too much to get him.
The Mets are not overperforming. Santana will pitch better, Bay will get better, RF (hopefully by way of Beltran) can get better. 2B will improve (likely due to Castillo returning). Operating under the assumption that the offense is underperforming, a more middling starting pitcher that can win on a good team might be all they need.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-1:52pm at 1:52 pm (UTC -4)
your last paragraph implies that the Mets are a WS contender…dont you think Lee puts them over the edge then?
having Lee, Santana both under contract for 3 years, Pelf and Niese under contract and not costing a lot for a while you really dont have a need for Mejia.
by the time Santana’s contract is up Harvey, and others should be ready to step in.
Davis, Havens/Tejada/Satin, Wright, Reyes is your infield for next 10 years.
Bay in LF for 3 more years, Pagan for a few years, Beltran for next year.
Mejia and F-Mart are both certainly expendable…and we will be more than fine without them…
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-1:40pm at 1:40 pm (UTC -4)
while you make a valid point, 80-90% of the time prospects dont amount to anything close to their potential.
the chances that any of Harvey, Mejia, Familia, Rodriguez or any pitching prospect we have gives us 5 seasons like Santana will give us in his tenure is probably less than 1%.
Right now I believe, other than a setup man, Lee is the final piece of the puzzle…and i think Aardsma, while he is not a great reliever by any stretch instantly becomes our 3rd best reliever and has proven he can close if for whatever reason K-Rod is unavailable…
ceetar
6/21/2010-1:44pm at 1:44 pm (UTC -4)
welwl, depends on the price.
But even if Niese and Davis are obviously off the table..Mejia Martinez Familia and Tejada? again, it depends on the cost. don’t think the Mets should overpay here.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-1:55pm at 1:55 pm (UTC -4)
again if your rotation is Lee, Santana, Pelfrey, Niese for the next 3 years…do you really need Mejia???
especially when Harvey and others are still in the system…
stickguy
6/21/2010-1:55pm at 1:55 pm (UTC -4)
well, that is more than either the phillies or mariners gave up, that is for sure! And that is for just 2 months of the guy.
whataputz
6/21/2010-1:45pm at 1:45 pm (UTC -4)
Cliff Lee is not Victor zambrano. And tell me when any of the “prospects” we traded for Santana accomplish anything. OOO no we lost Carlos Gomez, he bats eigth for the Brewers, what will we do without him and Kevin Mulvery!!!
The Zambrano deal was done by a team with no hope, aging players, and a gm on his way out.
And Mejia is not the same prospect as Kazmir. and in all fairness, Kazmir isn’t even that good.
GravediggerHebner
6/21/2010-1:53pm at 1:53 pm (UTC -4)
I addressed those items in the post.
None of my worries as outlined in the post are the worries you outline here.
I simply don’t want the Mets to pay a pitcher in his early-30′s top dollar as that pitcher moves into his mid-then-late-30′s when that pitcher’s best years are well in his past. I don’t want to pay a guy roughly $20 million annually through 2016 just because that guy may have won the Cy Young in 2007 at age 28.
What I want is the Mets to better identify younger pitchers while they still have upside potential as opposed to paying 33 year olds because they were awesome 5 years ago.
stickguy
6/21/2010-2:00pm at 2:00 pm (UTC -4)
right. as much as people like to scream about Ollie, at least he was 28YO and only signed for 3 years.
signing 33YO SPs to big contracts is a recipe for having guys getting paid close to 2x what ollie gets, to add about as much value.
Those LT deals where you get maybe 2 good years, but pay for 4, can really drag a team (withough an unlimited budget like the yankees) down the rathole.
I would rather target the big $ deals on young position player FAs (if someone like A Gon pops up), or extending your own stars.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-2:16pm at 2:16 pm (UTC -4)
if we sign Lee, what else do we need to pay big money for
Thole, Davis, Tejada/Satin/Havens, Reyes, Wright, Bay, Beltran/Pagan/Nieuwenhuis, F-Mart
Lee, Santana, Pelfrey, Niese, 5th SP doesnt matter
K-Rod (who just gets replaced by another FA for same money)
CaseStreet
6/21/2010-2:39pm at 2:39 pm (UTC -4)
Losing Beltran, Ollie, Castillo, Maine and Frenchy after next year would certainly help out budget wise.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-2:52pm at 2:52 pm (UTC -4)
the Mets are in a great situation right now…hopefully they make the move…
stickguy
6/21/2010-1:47pm at 1:47 pm (UTC -4)
nice peice. You clearly articulate some of the points that I like to ramble on about. Lazy or dumb GMs paying for past production vs. smart ones that pay for what you expect to get (the difference between signing Alfonso soriano for 10 years vs. letting Nomar walk).
And that you normally have to build your own ace, unless you can get lucky on a young guy trade (see: Garza).
There were some of us even when they got Johan that said sure, gotta do it, but expect to be paying the piper by the end of the deal.
This is why I said that if they trade for Lee, then the plan should NOT be to require an extension. Just get him for this year, and offer him arbitration, and let some other team sign him to the 5/100 deal, and collect your picks.
and like Ceetar said, the rotation is fine at the moment, but some more depth would be nice. A mid-tier guy (like westbrook) certainly will not hurt, and does not time them down in the future.
A guy like Oswalt sares me, even with “only” 2 more years after this one. Haren though, at 29, I would love to have. Carmona is intriguing, if you think he is on the upside, since he is young and cheap enough to not ever be an anchor on the team.
metsfan4decades
6/21/2010-1:48pm at 1:48 pm (UTC -4)
Good points.
As ‘sexy’ as it certainly would be to have Lee in the rotation the second half, I don’t think it really matters b/c IMO we’re low man on the totem pole in what Seattle is looking for. They really want some young bats that are ready or just about ready. Obviously, we’re not giving up Ike Davis. FMart is probably not even in the discussion due to injuries on/off. So I really don’t see us acquiring Lee.
I have to agree with lately – just about the last 15-20 years or so, it seems there’s a 5 year window on great pitchers. Takes a few seasons in the majors to establish yourself. Then you’re under team control for a few more years past that. Assuming the clock doesn’t start ticking at 20 but rather around 23, that pretty much has these great pitchers looking for the big contracts right around FA at about 29. The new buzz phrase is ‘the wrong side of 30′ when looking at long term contracts for pitchers. So it’s ideal for teams to draft smart and start developing their own ‘aces’.
That being said, doesn’t help us out much this year. I still say our depth is scary and we need a SP. Just who that SP will be remains to be seen and ought to be interesting what direction they go in.
I have to say though, I don’t really agree with the statement -’Except for the most optimistic among us not a lot of people felt the 2010 Mets were a playoff team.’ I don’t think it’s only the overly optimistic. If you looked at the division coming in, I’d say we had a good shot at making the playoffs. I didn’t believe the Phillies were as good or a lock as so many did. I actually believed the Braves were going to be the team to beat should they find a bit more offense then they had going in. Heyward is working out well for them and even with Chipper at the end of his career have a couple of others stepping up.
Unless one of the Phillies/Mets/Braves goes on an extended winning streak or two, or a losing streak or two playing less than .500 ball, I think this one goes down to the wire.
ceetar
6/21/2010-1:52pm at 1:52 pm (UTC -4)
Also, let’s not demote Santana from great to good just yet. Just like there was no reason to count the Mets out in April. Or decide Bay’s not going to live up to the contract.
GravediggerHebner
6/21/2010-2:02pm at 2:02 pm (UTC -4)
This is the short version in case as usual I was too obtuse and verbose:
The Mets will be much much better off developing their own version of Ubaldo Jimenez (who they drafted but didn’t sign), Josh Johnson, David Price or Clay Buchholz than they will be either paying top dollar for those guys 4-6 years from now when they hit free agency with their best years behind them or paying top dollar now for the pitchers who were the equivalent of those guys 4-6 years ago.
stickguy
6/21/2010-2:06pm at 2:06 pm (UTC -4)
too be fair to Oleo, if you can get that caliber of player on a rental at a reasonable prospect cost, it is worth a shot of you legitimately think it is the difference between making a WS run and missing the playoffs. Although of course there are no guarantees!
anyway, a 2 month rental for a SP doesn’t usually work that way, does it? They don’t get that many starts, and it does depend on how well the guy they are replacing pitches.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-2:20pm at 2:20 pm (UTC -4)
as of right now, Santana is not able to beat his fellow aces. If you make Lee the ace and take the pressure off Santana and just let him find his stuff we will be ok.
its hard for Johan to “get right” when he is up against the other teams best pitcher.
CaseStreet
6/21/2010-2:27pm at 2:27 pm (UTC -4)
To be fair, we do have Pelf and Niese in the rotation, so it’s not like the team hasn’t developed our own starters. It’s unfortunate Ollie hasn’t established himself as at least a #3, who knows if those lost draft picks might’ve found an ace in the making.
metsfan4decades
6/21/2010-2:08pm at 2:08 pm (UTC -4)
I got your point the first time. And it does make sense.
And anyone who regularly joins the Dugout for games know I have this thought about Jimenez – UGGGGGGGH. Anytime I hear his name I can’t help think ‘what could have been’. Mets tried to sign him young, his parents talked him into turning it down and going to college and we lost out. Wasn’t paying any attention way back when on this but I’m hoping that means we have some good scouts and not that we really were going cheap on this attempted signing…
CaseStreet
6/21/2010-2:21pm at 2:21 pm (UTC -4)
Stay away from Oswalt and seek a trade for Lee (as a rental) and ride him to the WS.
The most we should give up is Mejia + Thole + some guy we never heard of. Whether some other team will feel the need to offer a better package, who knows, but the Mets shouldn’t give up more than that.
Hope Lee continues to dominate for the season and that someone emerges as the SU guy.
Offer Lee arbitration and get two beautiful draft picks in what is supposed to be a good draft year and maybe we’ll draft and sign our future home grown ace.
Personally, I don’t care for the Westbrook’s of the world since there’s no upside with them and they won’t give us a better shot in the playoffs then Niese.
At a minimum, Omar should sign Maya (shouldn’t cost more than Maine and has a higher upside).
Next year, Santana will still be the ace (he’s better than most). Hopefully Pelf and Niese solidify their roles in the 2 and 3 slots. Maine or Ollie will still be around for the 4th spot. Then Omar has a carousel of starters for the 5th spot.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-2:24pm at 2:24 pm (UTC -4)
Maya is not coming to the Mets…it would make no sense from his standpoint…
CaseStreet
6/21/2010-2:28pm at 2:28 pm (UTC -4)
why wouldn’t it make sense?
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-2:31pm at 2:31 pm (UTC -4)
he is not going to sit in AAA and wait for a call. he wants a gauranteed MLB contract and the Mets arent going to given a Cuban defector rookie a spot in the rotation…
he was a fit in ST…not anymore…
CaseStreet
6/21/2010-2:35pm at 2:35 pm (UTC -4)
so what makes the Mets different from any other team that would sign him?
I wouldn’t imagine any team having him start at the ML level without starting a few games in the minors.
He’d still get paid his guaranteed contract no matter whether he pitches in the majors or minors, so that’s not an issue.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-2:39pm at 2:39 pm (UTC -4)
why would he want to pitch in AAA all season, when he could pitch in the MLB for another team.
plus what makes you think the Mets will give this guy multi-million dollar offer???
stickguy
6/21/2010-2:40pm at 2:40 pm (UTC -4)
yeah, ML contract for sure. so he is getting paid.
and he has to prove himself in the minors.
Only a team like the pirates would start him in the majors, and why would they want a 28 YO rookie? And why would he want to go to a doormat team?
CaseStreet
6/21/2010-2:55pm at 2:55 pm (UTC -4)
I’m really not getting you. Maya will sign with whoever has the most money. It’s assumed that whoever signs him will make him a starter after a few starts.
if the Mets sign Maya it’s because they see him as a ML starter. He wouldn’t spend the rest of the season in AAA when we have Taka and Dickey in the rotation.
Even if for some magical reason, the Mets rotation were so good that they didn’t need him, he’d still get a Sept. call-up and probably be slotted in for the rotation next year.
I never said the Mets WILL do anything. I said they SHOULD since he’d probably cost what John Maine costs but has a higher upside and they’d have him for relatively cheap during his GOOD years. We could DFA Maine and give his money to Maya.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-3:01pm at 3:01 pm (UTC -4)
the Mets arent going to give an unproven Cuban defector millions and millions of dollars…especially when they arent in desperate need for SP help.
CaseStreet
6/21/2010-3:19pm at 3:19 pm (UTC -4)
whether the Mets are in “desperate” need of a SP is debatable.
whether you think the Mets will not WANT to sign Maya is different than saying “it would not make sense from his standpoint”
I doubt they would have sent scouts to see him pitch if they weren’t at least interested.
I don’t know if they will or not, but IMO, it’s not inconceivable for them to do so.
whataputz
6/21/2010-2:22pm at 2:22 pm (UTC -4)
c’mon, where is the killer instinct? It’s been 24 years already! I’m not saying trade the farm for Lee, but if tjey want a prospect or two, then pull the trigger. We already have one of the best NL records, and if we add Lee who has proven he can dominate in the NL East, we have a WS caliber team. And maybe they can re-sign him, they’re probably going after Lee next offseason anyway. Idk about you guys, but I’m definitely willing to give up Mejia and or F-Mart to bring in Lee. Even if it is only a rental. You’re talking Lee who is a top 5 pitcher, johan who is johan, and Pelf in the middle of the best season he has ever pitched, in the prime of his career. Theres no gaurentee with these prospects. Mejia needs to develop a breaking pitch and now needs to stretch out his arm, granted he is young, and FMart is injury city. How could you not want Lee? Sometimes I feel like you guys look to deep into the future and other things like that and forget that they are in the middle of a competitive season. 3 aces in a pitchers park is a recipe for success.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-2:28pm at 2:28 pm (UTC -4)
exactly…who cares if we lose Mejia. He’s just one of many pitching prospects…
DNDJohan aka kistics
6/21/2010-2:27pm at 2:27 pm (UTC -4)
Just to let you know that Johan is 1 year younger than Lee and 2 years younger than Halladay. He’s far from going over the hill. Sure his velocity isn’t there any more. But if the pitcher is judged by how fast he throws the ball, Joba Chamberlin is a better pitcher than Halladay.
stickguy
6/21/2010-2:35pm at 2:35 pm (UTC -4)
pitchers don’t all lose it at the same time. especially when you factor in injuries.
some guys are studs in their 20s, and flame out by 20-31. Others seem to hit their peak at 31-32-33.
You can only really evaluate what they are doing at the moment, but for projection purposes, you have to assume that any SP hitting the danger zone (33-35) is going to fall off a cliff.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-2:35pm at 2:35 pm (UTC -4)
looks like Cerrone has a post about Aardsma…
ive wanted a package deal for Lee and Aardsma for some time…
stickguy
6/21/2010-2:37pm at 2:37 pm (UTC -4)
Aardsma really only had 1 good year (last year). Other than that, he basically has been Aaron Heilmann. Actually, AH is pitching better this year (and somehow, has become the AZ closer!).
speaking of which, you can probably have qualls and his salary for a used jock strap.
Instead of Aardsma, why not take a flyer on Woods? I think he is “healthy” (for him, it has to go in quotes) now. And I am sure he comes for nothing!
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-2:46pm at 2:46 pm (UTC -4)
b/c Kerry Wood is injured 99% of the time…
Aardsma has had success as a closer in the MLB and considering he’s having a not so good year I would think they would be looking to get rid of the contract more than looking for additional prospects.
Aardsma > Nieve, Valdes, Parnell, Dessens and maybe Igarashi. He makes the team better…
stickguy
6/21/2010-2:39pm at 2:39 pm (UTC -4)
hey, someone needs to make a list of all the potentially available back-end of the pen arms. Closers and set up men (and closers that should be set up men). Particualarly the bad contract types that might be available on a salary dump.
ceetar
6/21/2010-2:41pm at 2:41 pm (UTC -4)
I nominate Omar.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-2:50pm at 2:50 pm (UTC -4)
then you get Luis Ayala!
CaseStreet
6/21/2010-2:56pm at 2:56 pm (UTC -4)
IIRC, Ayala wasn’t bad as a SU guy. It was when he became our closer that he stunk it up.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-3:04pm at 3:04 pm (UTC -4)
im still skeptical in Omar as he has never made a major trade in season…
and no Francouer, Castillo, Ayala, Green and Perez/Hernandez arent major trades
ceetar
6/21/2010-3:12pm at 3:12 pm (UTC -4)
he had a couple of days good as a closer. but it wasn’t Omar that made that designation.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-3:17pm at 3:17 pm (UTC -4)
what bothered me is the relievers were subpar long before Wagner got hurt. Omar should have been proactive and gotten the middle relief help.
granted we would have still been without a closer but people have this belief that the BP was fine up until wagner got hurt and thats not true.
Omar is always a step behind and I have a bad feeling Omar will pass on getting the ace and then once september comes around the guys like Pelf, Niese and Santana wont be pitching like they are now.
youngvalerawest
6/21/2010-3:15pm at 3:15 pm (UTC -4)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hallaro01.shtml
The only thing pedestrian about Roy Halladay’s performance this season is his W-L record. He’s been spectacular and in some respects better than he’s ever been. He’s been worth his salary, the prospects traded for him and more.
I’m in the camp of paying for a rental and going for it so long as the trade chips are reflective of a rental.
And a big part of my reason is the same author’s multi-part series on the prospects traded in big deals.
CaseStreet
6/21/2010-3:23pm at 3:23 pm (UTC -4)
+1
and
Pitching (7th in ERA) + Speed (2nd in SB) + Defense (9th in UZR) = Wins
youngvalerawest
6/21/2010-3:23pm at 3:23 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t know if anyone discussed this over the weekend, but I’m concerned about Santana’s future if he’s throwing 90 mph fast balls and 82 mph changeups. If he doesn’t miss bats like he used to he’ll be prone to gopher balls, especially in places like Yankees Little League Park.
ceetar
6/21/2010-3:25pm at 3:25 pm (UTC -4)
I saw plenty of 91mph fastballs and 79mph changeups. I saw swings and misses too.
youngvalerawest
6/21/2010-3:29pm at 3:29 pm (UTC -4)
Have you seen that his k/9 is down by 2 from his last two seasons and by 4 since he left Minny?
ceetar
6/21/2010-4:23pm at 4:23 pm (UTC -4)
those were full seasons, this isn’t.
youngvalerawest
6/21/2010-5:04pm at 5:04 pm (UTC -4)
So I shouldn’t be concerned until after the season?
Are all of your eggs sunny side up? Should we ever be concerned about anything in light of plainly demonstrable facts?
ceetar
6/21/2010-5:07pm at 5:07 pm (UTC -4)
how about looking at the 4-5 starts prior to the last 4?
youngvalerawest
6/21/2010-5:13pm at 5:13 pm (UTC -4)
I’m talking about his entire season so far.
If you are trying to say his K rate hasn’t declined then you’re ignoring facts.
If you’re saying that his fastball isn’t down, then you’re ignoring facts.
If this isn’t a concern to you that’s fine. But you’re not being objective if you don’t see how other people might be concerned by such things.
ceetar
6/21/2010-5:57pm at 5:57 pm (UTC -4)
His statistics the second half have always carried his first half. I wonder if these concerns would be being voiced if he was 9-4 because he’d actually gotten run support?
wannybackstra
6/21/2010-8:44pm at 8:44 pm (UTC -4)
Your red herring point would have some validity if not for the fact that his career first half K rate is nearly identical to his second half.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-3:31pm at 3:31 pm (UTC -4)
he has 8 strikeouts in the month of the June (4 starts).
ceetar
6/21/2010-4:30pm at 4:30 pm (UTC -4)
The other thing is Johan’s a smarter more experienced pitcher now. He knows when he’s going to be able to get a strikeout, and when he’s not. He’s pitched complete game 4-hitters with 1 K at Shea. He’s had plenty of games in his career with 2-5 strikeouts, even a couple in a row, especially in the first half. He’ll be fine.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-4:59pm at 4:59 pm (UTC -4)
but when he is going up against Josh Johnson or Ubaldo Jimenez or Sabathia etc. one mistake could be the difference between a win and a loss.
Santana pitched great except he left a fat one for Teixiera and it 4-0 just like that. a few miles an hour faster and maybe he doesnt hit it out.
I have full confidence that Santana can be a 15 win pitcher but not when he’s matched up against the other aces…
ceetar
6/21/2010-5:09pm at 5:09 pm (UTC -4)
another few miles an hour and maybe Texiera actually hits it out of a legitimate stadium. faster in, faster out. half an inch further inside or whatever, and it’s a pop-up. or missed entirely.
plenty of times guys make bad pitches, even the best guys. The problem was the sloppy play on the two infield singles and the inability of the offense to score.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-6:25pm at 6:25 pm (UTC -4)
Sabathia, a damn good pitcher, was on the mound. when a top pitcher is pitching well, that can shut out even the most potent lineups…
ceetar
6/21/2010-6:29pm at 6:29 pm (UTC -4)
so we’re going to look at perpherals for Santana but not Sabathia? C.C. struggled with his control as well. The Mets were victimized by some double plays and failure to execute.
and bench players, such as Tatis.
Kingman 26
6/21/2010-7:23pm at 7:23 pm (UTC -4)
You are right Oleo.
Santana is clearly beginning his decline. How can anyone dispute that?
Sure he is still good, but will never be the same as he once was with an 89 mph fastball.
trs86
6/21/2010-7:47pm at 7:47 pm (UTC -4)
Why is it that no one will notice or mention the fact that Santana had an incredible stretch right before this current down turn?
How about the fact that in 9/15 starts he has given up 2 runs or less? 8/15 starts he has given up 1 run or less.
Lee is 7/10 for 2 runs or less and 4/10 for 1 run or less.
Oswalt is 9/14 and 3/14
CC 6/15 and 5/15.
Johan is fine.
Kingman 26
6/21/2010-8:13pm at 8:13 pm (UTC -4)
In his last 10 starts, he has allowed 4 ER or more in half of them.
He has allowed 4 ER or more in 6 of his 15 starts.
That’s not a serious ace. That’s a good pitcher.
In 2008 he allowed 4 ER or more FOUR times in 34 starts.
In 2007 he allowed 4 ER or more nine times in 33 starts.
In 2006 he allowed 4 ER or more six times in 34 starts.
Of course he is fine; he is just absolutely not the Johan of a few years ago, that’s all.
And he won’t be again until he throws 93 or 94 consistently again.
Kingman 26
6/21/2010-8:15pm at 8:15 pm (UTC -4)
And the “incredible” stretch was a total of 5 starts.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-3:27pm at 3:27 pm (UTC -4)
see if Murphy didnt get hurt I think Mejia, Murphy, Tejada and an A ball pitcher would seal the deal.
i would like to hold onto F-Mart b/c i feel he could be the RF of the future but finding a productive RF is not very difficult.
any combination of F-Mart, Tejada, Thole, Mejia works for me
CaseStreet
6/21/2010-3:42pm at 3:42 pm (UTC -4)
who knows, maybe Omar can get that 1B prospect from another team.
but Mejia and Thole plus a single A guy should be a competitive offer.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-3:47pm at 3:47 pm (UTC -4)
and how anyone could be against trading that for a top 5 SP is beyond me.
GravediggerHebner
6/21/2010-4:00pm at 4:00 pm (UTC -4)
Who is against that?
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-4:25pm at 4:25 pm (UTC -4)
41% of Mattsblog.com’s readers apparently and some here as well.
GravediggerHebner
6/21/2010-4:39pm at 4:39 pm (UTC -4)
Ah, thank you.
Well that’s a distinct minority.
I think there could be a noticeable change in that percentage between now and the All-Star game. Which way it will go depends on how the Mets do in the interim.
prismo
6/21/2010-4:36pm at 4:36 pm (UTC -4)
Everyone’s for it, but not everyone is willing to part with the players it would take to complete that type of trade. People want to have their cake and eat it too!
Kingman 26
6/21/2010-5:09pm at 5:09 pm (UTC -4)
Nah, I think Mejia and FMart in one trade is just too much, unless it is Oswalt AFTER he undergoes a serious physical.
Lee’s career just does not justify what people are thinking of him as.
prismo
6/21/2010-5:14pm at 5:14 pm (UTC -4)
Cliff Lee is in the the midst of his third consecutive outstanding season, and arguably this is his best one yet (though only 1/3 in). His ERA is 2.55 and he’s averaging almost 8 innings per start, which is just amazing. His walk rate’s ridiculous, his HR rate is ridiculous, it’s just all top notch.
Now, I’m not sure I’d give up the farm for half a season of him (the draft pick compensation be damned), but if they could work out an extension I might be into it.
Also, Lee’s fastball speed so far is the same as last year’s, at 91MPH, showing no decline, which I love to see.
prismo
6/21/2010-5:24pm at 5:24 pm (UTC -4)
Kingman, I’d be interested in your opinion of whether it’s worth trading prospects for a 1-year rental vs trading prospects for a longer-term, but more expensive player. Just in generic terms.
It just worries me because of how the Brewers traded away guys for CC. They made it to the playoffs, but have been decidedly mediocre since then.
Kingman 26
6/21/2010-5:43pm at 5:43 pm (UTC -4)
Prismo, thanks for asking, and I definitely think Lee is the definition of a perfect rental, just as the Phils thought last year (correctly.)
I am all for rentals, as long as the right trade can be worked out. Lee just does not seem worth the 5/90 or whatever he will try to get after this year. His age, inconsistency, and injuries (not to mention that we are watching Johan decline significantly in year 3 of a gigantic 6 year deal; and he has had a MUCH better career than Lee.)
I just think this team is loaded and on the verge of years of contention; I do not want to trade too many youngsters away for an aging rental. I know anything can happen and 2010 might indeed be “the” year, but if not, I would hate to be without Lee, Mejia, AND FMart in 2011.
And Lee
was not great or outstanding last year. He was very good.
prismo
6/21/2010-5:47pm at 5:47 pm (UTC -4)
It’s tough for me. I hate the idea of giving up prospects for 1/2year of anyone, because if it doesn’t work out…the team is worse overall started the next season. But on the flip side, I also don’t like giving a pitcher in his 30s a huge contract (which as you said, Lee will probably get).
Kingman 26
6/21/2010-5:48pm at 5:48 pm (UTC -4)
To directly answer, I definitely would prefer to trade prospects for someone we can count on having for at least 2-3 years.
Cannot see the Mets giving Lee a huge deal considering the deal Johan has. And I agree 100%.
prismo
6/21/2010-5:51pm at 5:51 pm (UTC -4)
Maybe this is why Lee isn’t the pitcher to go after. Oswalt worries me for reasons I can’t define. They’d have to pay him a lot over the next couple years, but then they’re completely in the clear.
Kingman 26
6/21/2010-6:00pm at 6:00 pm (UTC -4)
I prefer Oswalt, if we can somehow be sure he is healthy.
He is better and just one year older than Lee, and is also an old friend/rival of Johan–those two would be an unreal 1-2 punch and would possibly drive each other to be better.
CaseStreet
6/21/2010-4:33pm at 4:33 pm (UTC -4)
I guess some feel that mejia is likely to be a great pitcher or that the mets can do fine with a Westbrook type.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-4:54pm at 4:54 pm (UTC -4)
Lee, Santana, Pelfrey, Niese for the next 3 years.
Why do we need Mejia again?
Mr North Jersey
6/21/2010-4:59pm at 4:59 pm (UTC -4)
You must of never heard of that saying that you never have enough pitching.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-8:04pm at 8:04 pm (UTC -4)
which is why i want to trade a 20 year old prospect who might be good someday for one of the top pitchers in baseball who instantly becomes the best pitcher on our staff.
while your waiting for Mejia to pan out, I want to win a championship…
Kingman 26
6/21/2010-5:04pm at 5:04 pm (UTC -4)
Because Cliff Lee will soon be 32 and has two really good years sprinkled in with several mediocre ones and a few injuries?
youngvalerawest
6/21/2010-5:09pm at 5:09 pm (UTC -4)
His last two seasons were great. Then he had an injury season, a mediocre one and another great one. that’s three out of five great seasons and the sixth is shaping up to be a very good one too.
Kingman 26
6/21/2010-5:39pm at 5:39 pm (UTC -4)
No, his 2009 was most definitely not “great” by any means. 3.22 ERA, 1.243 WHIP, and led the majors in hits allowed. Not great by any definition.
Mediocre as hell in 04, 06, and 07, very good in 05, great for sure in 08, missed over half of 07 and the beginning of this year with injuries.
That is just not–even close–to the resume of a pitcher turning 32 who deserves the kind of deal Lee will try to obtain after this year.
I would LOVE him as a rental only, but would not trade Niese at all, probably would not trade Ike, and probably would trade just one of Mejia/FMart and then a few other prospects.
prismo
6/21/2010-5:41pm at 5:41 pm (UTC -4)
Kingman – I agree on who/who not to trade for Lee.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-8:10pm at 8:10 pm (UTC -4)
well when you throw 231 IP, you tend to give up a lot of hits.
How about the 17 BB he gave up all season last year…and his numbers in the postseason.
wannybackstra
6/21/2010-8:45pm at 8:45 pm (UTC -4)
Not to mention that his just okay 3.22 ERA came in the Citizen’s Bank little league park.
GravediggerHebner
6/21/2010-5:16pm at 5:16 pm (UTC -4)
Just some food for thought on why we might need Mejia or some of these other minor leaguers:
For 2012 the Mets already have committed
$24 Million – Santana
$15.25 million – Wright
$18 million – Bay
and if they pick up KRod’s 2012 option add
$17.5 million – KRod
That’s $74.75 million for 4 members of the 25 man roster. Throw Lee’s hypothetical $25 million on there and you get
$99.75 million committed to 5 players.
I just don’t see it.
prismo
6/21/2010-5:19pm at 5:19 pm (UTC -4)
I really hope they don’t pick up that option for KRod (3.5MM buyout).
I’m not a KRod hater like some, and like him as our closer, but no closer is worth that much money (maybe with the exception of Mariano Rivera in his prime), IMO. Would be nice if Parnell started blowing everyone away this season and next and could fit into the closer role…I hope that’s not a pipe dream.
prismo
6/21/2010-5:21pm at 5:21 pm (UTC -4)
But otherwise, I see your point, and it’s a very valid one. That’s a lot of money to have locked up in just a few players. However, if the youngins can produce, they can get away with it, because some of the other starting players will be so cheap (Ike, Tejada/Havens, FMart, Niese, etc).
FYI, the Yankees have three players locked up for over $73 million in guess what year…2014. hahaha…
GravediggerHebner
6/21/2010-6:09pm at 6:09 pm (UTC -4)
That Yankee commitment is astounding, especially when you consider that it doesn’t include Jeter and how old ARod will be then. But they’re the Yankees and somehow I imagine it won’t handicap them.
I completely agree with all your points on KRod.
One thing that concerns me about this payroll discussion is the wildcard aspect of Jose Reyes. He’s not currently in the conversation. If he’s in it, he’ll take up a fair chunk too.
Right now 2012 has locked up LF, 3B, 3 SP & maybe CL.
CF – cheap FMart/Neuewenhuis? Pagan in 4th year arbitration? Other?
RF – Frenchy at FA price? cheap CF candidate from above? Other?
SS – Reyes at FA price? cheap Tejada? Other?
2B – cheap Tejada or Havens? Other?
1B – Assuming Ike who at that point will still be cheap (roughly Arb 1 or 2 unless signed long)
C – cheap Thole? Other?
SP – Santana, Pelfrey Arb 2, Niese Arb 1 or 2, then cheap Mejia? and cheap new draftee Harvey? or other(s)?
RP – either CL KRod expensive or a bunch of others, only Sean Green & Fernando Nieve are under control aside from minor leaguers.
Lots of holes to fill. It seems inescapable that the team is going to be counting on a combination of it’s own minor leaugers coming along and a handful of other guys from other organizations that are too far off make meaningful predictions.
With the salary of a signed Lee or acquired Oswalt as well as Reyes in there too it’s going to require lots of young and/or cheap talent to work. The more they spend on a big time SP to add, the more they will have to count on making the right choices among minor leaguers and scrap heap second chances.
In no way am I saying it can’t work, it just scares me to commit a huge portion of the money I would need to do all this to a SP in his mid 30s on the downside because if that guy declines/gets hurt, uh oh.
All of which brings me back to the point of my long and winding road post, which is it would really really behoove the Mets to develop an ace rather than sign someone else’s because they would be paying top dollar for a guy whose best years were already enjoyed by that other team. Maybe Pelf, or Niese, or Mejia, or (insert your fave minor leaguer here) can be that guy. I hope so.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-6:33pm at 6:33 pm (UTC -4)
i think you are forgetting though that Beltran, Castillo, Francouer, Ollie, Maine will all be gone…thats like 1/3 of our current payroll right there!!!
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-8:11pm at 8:11 pm (UTC -4)
yet who won the WS last year?
youngvalerawest
6/21/2010-5:22pm at 5:22 pm (UTC -4)
Good points.
But none of that should preclude bringing in a rental to go for a shot this season.
njstuckintx
6/21/2010-5:29pm at 5:29 pm (UTC -4)
The rental + 1 draft pick (as we’d lose one when another starter is signed) would be worth it. I think the idea that we trade for Lee and we have to sign him is incorrect. I’d offer him arb. and take the picks.
I’m still a coin flip on whether Mejia is going to pan out. His size doesn’t bode well for him, but neither did Pedro’s or Oswalt’s… Not saying he will turn into one of those, but it is a possibility. If we truly are in the thick of it in one month’s time, acquiring Lee would be the right thing to do. Or Haren for that matter. Haren is basically going to cost a first born and possibly a cousin. I could see Fmart, Mejia, Thole and 1-2 others for him. Would I do that? I dunno…
youngvalerawest
6/21/2010-5:07pm at 5:07 pm (UTC -4)
I have doubts as to how the Mets really feel internally about Mejia. If they really believe he’ll be a starting pitcher stud then why the hell would they have made him an afterthought in the MLB bullpen at 20 years old?
njstuckintx
6/21/2010-5:24pm at 5:24 pm (UTC -4)
Cause at the time, the unproven 20 yr old was better than half the crap in that bullpen?
youngvalerawest
6/21/2010-5:30pm at 5:30 pm (UTC -4)
The role he was given wasn’t all that critical. According to Baseball-reference he’s had 91 out of his 120 plate appearances some come in low leverage situations whereas only 25 came in high leverage.
Compare that to Feliciano with 47 high leverage and 45 low leverage out of his 125 total.
youngvalerawest
6/21/2010-5:30pm at 5:30 pm (UTC -4)
Manny Acosta can throw meaningless innings too.
tkfj2
6/21/2010-6:13pm at 6:13 pm (UTC -4)
Why? The Mets are the idiots who let Jerry Manuel have the clout to keep Mejia up in the bullpen without throwing some meaningful innings.
If Mejia was where he belonged and was not given a look in the MLB, we would be singing praises for this kid and calling him untouchable. The look in the majors has allowed some of the fanbase to write him off, I’m not ready to trade him for Lee or anyone else.
We might be a playoff contender but I just don’t see Mejia going anywhere right now.
Kingman 26
6/21/2010-6:11pm at 6:11 pm (UTC -4)
Nice, thoughtful piece Grave.
I agree about much of it (although I must confess an allergy to the Moody Blues) but still feel that Oswalt for 1.5–2.5 years is the way to go from what is available.
Almost equally good choices would be Haren without giving up too much or renting Lee without giving up Ike, Niese, and one of Mejia/FMart.
GravediggerHebner
6/21/2010-6:24pm at 6:24 pm (UTC -4)
All I can say is when I put on that album it still plays at 33 1/3 just like it always has. When I put some of these pitchers in the rotation for big years at big dollars I just don’t know if they’ll still be up to speed…
I was 13 and the Moodies were my 1st concert, on the Octave tour in 1978 at the Meadowlands (unless you count MECO doing their Star Wars medley at my local community college the year before) so they’ll always hold a special place, but I understand your allergy. I had to start slowly in convincing my mother to let me go to these things. The next year she let me go to the Clash so it all worked out.
Kingman 26
6/21/2010-7:13pm at 7:13 pm (UTC -4)
HAHA! The rotation thing definitely works!
Not surprisingly, I have very similar early concert memories. My parents refused to let me to to major concerts until I was 15, so Queen and Billy Squier at MSG July of 1982 was my first huge concert…and damn if I don’t still have a soft spot for both of them, and I can certainly respect those who don’t!
And in October that year they let me go to The Who and The Clash and David Johansen at Shea. And a long, long list rapidly grew after that…
Hazmet
6/21/2010-7:40pm at 7:40 pm (UTC -4)
Great comeback by Grave, on pitcher’s and 33.3 rotation, lmao.
I know we’ve had these discussions at fwicg pre-ban but my first concert’s were: Yes in the Round in ’77, followed by Jethro Tull with of all bands Uriah Heap as the opening act. Also memorable was The Who in Sept ’79 after Moon died and a month or so before the Cincy tragedy. Sooooo long ago. Also got ripped off at a Grateful Dead concert in ’78. But that’s another non-baseball story.
Kingman 26
6/21/2010-7:47pm at 7:47 pm (UTC -4)
I vividly remember that Cincy Who incident. I was just 12.
Started going to Dead shows in the spring of 82.
Ah, the good old days. The VERY good and VERY old days….
Hazmet
6/21/2010-7:53pm at 7:53 pm (UTC -4)
OMG! You want a flashback you should check out the TIEDYE Uni’s the Brooklyn Cyclones are wearing tonight. Wally just don’t look right rockin’ the tie dye.
metsfan4decades
6/21/2010-9:29pm at 9:29 pm (UTC -4)
At the risk of aging myself, I think my first concert was as a young teenager at the Asbury Park Convention Hall with my Aunt and I believe it was the Moody Blues.
First ever concert I attended on my own with friends though was definitely Bruce at the Count Basie theater back in Aug of 1976. What a concert. Good times…
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-6:30pm at 6:30 pm (UTC -4)
i dont see how Mejia, F-Mart and Tejada are too much. we wouldnt need them if we made the trade for Lee.
now if the Mariners want Niese or Davis, i would completely agree with not making the move but neither of those 3 are essential to the future of this club if we acquire Lee.
again if we have a top 4 of Lee, Santana, Pelfrey and Niese for at least the next 3 years and Matt Harvey and others still in the system why do we need to keep Mejia???
Kingman 26
6/21/2010-7:16pm at 7:16 pm (UTC -4)
Oleo, there is no chance the Mets are going to give Lee a massive deal, with his age and checkered career, and while they watch Johan (not enough to get them to the playoffs yet) decline with 3 more years at 20 mil to go.
It’s not going to happen.
That trade for Oswalt if healthy, locked up through 2012?
Yes sir!
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-7:49pm at 7:49 pm (UTC -4)
If the Mets trade for Lee and he goes out and pitches lights out and leads our team to the NLCS or better, he will be signed.
it would be a PR nightmare if they let him go…
prismo
6/21/2010-7:52pm at 7:52 pm (UTC -4)
No PR nightmare if the Mets make it that far in the playoffs.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-8:16pm at 8:16 pm (UTC -4)
so if Cliff Lee leads our staff to the postseason and dominates in his tenure…you think the Mets will let him go and all the fans wont call in to WFAN and go nuts and proclaim the sky is falling?
prismo
6/21/2010-8:18pm at 8:18 pm (UTC -4)
F the idiot fans the FAN puts on the radio.
Kingman 26
6/21/2010-8:24pm at 8:24 pm (UTC -4)
+ Infinity.
Plus, as this past year proved, they could care less about screaming idiots.
And, as I am sure we all can agree, NOT signing any of the dramatically overpriced, aging pitchers last offseason was a frigin blessing.
Look at Lackey’s numbers. Not to mention every other candidate.
Kingman 26
6/21/2010-8:31pm at 8:31 pm (UTC -4)
Oleo, Johan’s performance and decline in year 3 of a giant 6 year deal and John Lackey’s performance in year one of his insane deal are more than enough for the Wilpons to (quite reasonably) rationalize not signing a 32 year old pitcher to the contract Lee will demand.
And I totally agree.
prismo
6/21/2010-8:33pm at 8:33 pm (UTC -4)
Eh, Lackey was never great though. He was just way overhyped. At least Lee’s had some Cy-Young caliber years.
Hazmet
6/21/2010-9:07pm at 9:07 pm (UTC -4)
ie. see Ray Knight
Kingman 26
6/21/2010-8:06pm at 8:06 pm (UTC -4)
Interesting perspective Oleo.
I would raise you one by saying he must lead us to the WS.
Hazmet
6/21/2010-7:22pm at 7:22 pm (UTC -4)
Nice piece Gravy, yes I’m speaking of the article, wink nod. j/k
Anyway, what I key on from today’s piece is to factor in what deem’s if this is “the year” or just “a year”. For me the pivot point on that is does Mr.Beltran return and resemble Carlos Beltran. If he does, then it could be the year and a run at Lee should be considered, if not then a Westbrook move is where I’d go. Yes, Westbrook run wise didn’t look great against us last week but man his defense was pathetic behind him. Problem for Lee is the Met’s don’t match up with the Mariner’s #1 wish which is a top tier hitting Catching prospect. From WFAN Fatsecca they have the Twins Wilson Ramos on their wish list to meet that want. The problem I have is I wouldn’t want to give up much for a half year rental so I guess I’m leaning to a lesser addition anyway. Maybe a Maya signing or Harvey as you suggest instead of Westbrook as that lesser addition. As for Lee I don’t even know what to offer given I don’t want to lose Mejia or F-Mart. And to get it done, the Mariner’s would probably ask for both for starter’s. Where I am for a half year rental is like Murphy for their DH next year, Parnell who hit’s a hittable 100mph, and a Gee or Holt. Certainly not enough, but all I think half a year’s worth.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-8:29pm at 8:29 pm (UTC -4)
hypothetically lets say after you factor in Santana moving down in rotation where he will pick up mo, Takahashi’s return to the bullpen and how well Lee would fair in this huge stadium with a very good defensive team, you come to the conclusion Lee adds 5 wins to the table which puts the Mets right over edge and they take the division by 2 games and play the Dodgers in the first round of the playoffs, finally ending the pessimistic cloud surrounding this team after those 2 horrible collapses.
What is that worth to you?
Kingman 26
6/21/2010-8:33pm at 8:33 pm (UTC -4)
You really are doing an outstanding job of selling your side Oleo!
I still say get Lee as a possible rental if we can somehow keep Ike, Niese, and one of Mejia and FMart.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-9:22pm at 9:22 pm (UTC -4)
I fully believe it can be done for just Mejia, Tejada and some lower level prospects.
Hazmet
6/21/2010-9:05pm at 9:05 pm (UTC -4)
For me it’s not worth losing multiple prospects for a half a year and depleting the farm system. If the price is right go for it. If Niese and Ike were still at AAA we’d be throwing their names into the hat to trade off for the rental and seeing them now in the bigs we say no way. Mejia I’m reluctant to trade since he is not a Bannister or Humber class pitcher like we’ve swapped in the past, he has much better stuff, albeit raw. If they want F-Mart’s promise to make it happen then throw him their way. People point to the draft picks we’d get if losing Lee this off season and to that I’d take the picks but with the team’s sticking to the slotting system they’d more than likely be middle tier guys. Although they’ve done well with Comp picks of Ike and David. With all this in the mix, I boil it down to Beltran. As much as everyone love’s Pagan’s year so far he is not Carlos Beltran and without that stick in the line up I can’t see them going deep in the post season. For me, it’s not about just getting there it’s about going deep. Thereby Carlos is the tipping point, if healthy we’re loaded and go get Lee and pay the price. Without Carlos’s production I’m not buying a deep playoff run just because we get Lee.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-9:28pm at 9:28 pm (UTC -4)
depleting the farm system?
again if you trade for Lee, you lose one pitcher in Mejia and maybe some midlevel prospect. you still have Harvey, Holt, Familia, Niesen, Fuller, Carson, Matz, Gee plus many many others.
Hazmet
6/21/2010-9:41pm at 9:41 pm (UTC -4)
Holt’s demoted to St. Lucie, Matz is in Tommy John Surgery, Gee has an almost 5 ERA in AAA, Harvey’s fresh out of college so who knows. Mejia’s the closest imo. Depleting the farm system was based on F-Mart, Mejia, Tejada suggested to get it done. I’d hate to lose a top OF prospect, serviceable 2B guy and Mejia whatever he may become. If it’s Mejia and a mid level I’d consider it but not F-Mart and Mejia plus a mid-level. I’d like to hold one of Mejia or F-Mart back either for development or different package.
oleosmirf
6/21/2010-10:12pm at 10:12 pm (UTC -4)
by the time Castillo is gone, Havens or Satin will pass Tejada.
F-Mart is always hurt and never productive enough in the minors
Mejia is very talented but a long ways away from being a top flight starter.
johan4cy
6/21/2010-8:35pm at 8:35 pm (UTC -4)
Cliff Lee is NOW. Trade Mejia and a filler for him if possible!! Cliff Lee is the proven real deal for TODAY. All we have in Mejia is hope for tomorrow!