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Jun 21

Santana 2010 Season Is Not That Far Off Of 2008 Season Pace

2010 Tm Opp Rslt Dec IP H R ER BB SO ERA Exited
Apr 5 NYM FLA W,7-1 W(1-0) 6.0 4 1 1 2 5 1.50 6t 3 out a1
Apr 11 NYM WSN L,2-5 L(1-1) 5.0 5 5 5 3 3 4.91 5t 3 out d5
Apr 17 NYM @ STL W,2-1 7.0 4 0 0 1 9 3.00 7b 3 out tie
Apr 22 NYM CHC W,5-2 W(2-1) 6.1 8 1 1 0 5 2.59 7t 1– 1 out a3
Apr 27(1) NYM LAD W,4-0 W(3-1) 6.0 4 0 0 3 6 2.08 6t 3 out a2
May Tm Opp Rslt Dec IP H R ER BB SO ERA Exited
May 2 NYM @ PHI L,5-11 L(3-2) 3.2 8 10 10 2 1 4.50 4b — 2 out d5
May 8 NYM SFG W,5-4 7.2 8 4 4 0 6 4.54 8t 1– 2 out a1
May 13 NYM @ FLA L,1-2 7.0 6 1 0 1 5 3.88 7b 3 out tie
May 18 NYM @ ATL L,2-3 7.0 5 2 2 2 4 3.72 7b 3 out tie
May 23 NYM NYY W,6-4 W(4-2) 7.2 6 1 1 3 5 3.41 8t 123 2 out a5
May 28 NYM @ MIL L,0-2 8.0 3 0 0 2 5 3.03 8b 3 out tie
June Tm Opp Rslt Dec IP H R ER BB SO ERA Exited
Jun 2 NYM @ SDP L,1-5 7.0 5 0 0 5 3 2.76 7b 3 out a1
Jun 10(1) NYM SDP L,2-4 L(4-3) 6.2 8 4 4 4 1 2.96 7t -2- 2 out d2
Jun 15 NYM @ CLE W,7-6 W(5-3) 7.0 7 4 4 2 1 3.13 7b 3 out a3
Jun 20 NYM @ NYY L,0-4 L(5-4) 6.0 8 4 4 1 3 3.31 6b 3 out d4
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/21/2010.




2008 Tm Opp Rslt Dec IP H R ER BB SO ERA Exited
Mar 31 NYM @ FLA W,7-2 W(1-0) 7.0 3 2 2 2 8 2.57 7b 3 out a4
Apr 6 NYM @ ATL L,1-3 L(1-1) 7.0 7 1 1 0 3 1.93 7b 3 out d1
Apr 12 NYM MIL L,3-5 L(1-2) 6.2 6 5 4 2 7 3.05 7t — 2 out d3
Apr 18 NYM @ PHI W,6-4 W(2-2) 7.0 4 3 3 0 10 3.25 8b 12- 0 out a4
Apr 23 NYM @ WSN W,7-2 W(3-2) 7.0 7 2 2 1 4 3.12 7b 3 out a3
Apr 29 NYM PIT W,5-4 5.2 2 2 2 3 7 3.12 6t 123 2 out a2
May Tm Opp Rslt Dec IP H R ER BB SO ERA Exited
May 4 NYM @ ARI W,5-2 6.0 6 1 1 4 8 2.91 6b 3 out a1
May 10(1) NYM CIN W,12-6 W(4-2) 6.0 10 3 3 1 5 3.10 6t 3 out a3
May 17 NYM @ NYY W,7-4 W(5-2) 7.2 7 4 4 2 5 3.30 8b -2- 2 out a2
May 22 NYM @ ATL L,2-4 L(5-3) 7.0 12 4 3 0 1 3.36 7b 3 out d2
May 27 NYM FLA W,5-3 W(6-3) 7.0 8 3 3 2 7 3.41 7t 3 out a1
June Tm Opp Rslt Dec IP H R ER BB SO ERA Exited
Jun 1 NYM LAD W,6-1 W(7-3) 7.2 6 1 1 3 6 3.20 8t 12- 2 out a5
Jun 6 NYM @ SDP L,1-2 L(7-4) 6.0 7 2 1 1 5 3.08 6b 3 out d1
Jun 12 NYM ARI L,4-5 7.0 3 0 0 3 10 2.85 7t 3 out a2
Jun 17 NYM @ LAA L,1-6 L(7-5) 6.0 8 5 4 2 5 3.04 6b 3 out d4
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/21/2010.





Starts with 3 Earned Runs or less

  • (2010) 9 starts
  • (2008) 12 starts

Starts with 3 Earned Runs or less that Santana left with a lead

  • (2010) 5 starts
  • (2008) 9 starts

Mets record in Santana’s 1st 15 starts

  • (2010) 7/W 8/L
  • (2008) 9/W 6/L




2010 – 2008 Compared Tm GS IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA BA OBP SLG OPS Pit Str StL StS
Apr 5, 2010 to Jun 20, 2010 NYM 15 98.0 89 37 36 31 62 8 3.31 .243 .302 .358 .660 1553 67% 17% 9%
Mar 31, 2008 to Jun 17, 2008 NYM 15 100.2 96 38 34 26 91 13 3.04 .248 .299 .406 .704 1566 65% 17% 11%





In Johan Santana’s 1st year with the Mets he finished
16-7 2.53/ERA 234.1/IP 206/H 74/R 66/ER 23/HR 63/BB 206/SO
It was considered to be a successful season.

Now in 2010 the rumblings are that Santana’s lost velocity and lack of strikeouts are cause for concern but while Santana’s strikeout totals are indeed down most of his other numbers if you notice are right along the same lines as they were in 2008.

The point being that it may be too early to be concerned about Santana due to the fact that his strikeout numbers are down. I am of the opinion that if he had a lil bit more run support when he has pitched well there would not be so much concern over his loss of velocity.

Related posts:

170 comments

  1. Mr North Jersey

    FYI where it says above the following it was in Santana’s 1st 15 starts not the entire season.

    Starts with 3 Earned Runs or less

    * (2010) 9 starts
    * (2008) 12 starts

    Starts with 3 Earned Runs or less that Santana left with a lead

    * (2010) 5 starts
    * (2008) 9 starts

    1. Kingman 26

      Uh, those are BIG differences.

    2. prismo

      So let’s say 1.5 out of 3 (or 4) of those starts turns from a loss to win from 2008 to 2010. And then double that, because we’re only looking at 15 starts…that’s 3 more wins. That’s a big difference at the end of the season.

      And as Kingman said, Johan hasn’t been BAD. He just hasn’t been GREAT.

      1. prismo

        Sorry, from a win to a loss.

      2. Kingman 26

        Precisely, and more nicely, what I was trying to say!

        Gotta run boys and girls; let’s go Mets as the new streak starts tomorrow!

        Let us hope that Dickey and Taka do not lose over the next month, then we can keep ALL of our prospects and STILL go to the postseason!!

      3. Mr North Jersey

        All I can say is when I look at his stats ie: IP, OBP, ER, etc etc the only big difference I see are his k’s. So even with his diminished k’s in 2010 it hasnt really affected his other stats when compared to his 1st 15 starts in 2008.

        1. trs86

          Exactly.
          Why should a starter not have more wins if in over half of his starts he has given up 1 run or less?

    3. trs86

      9/15 starts 2 runs or less.
      8/15 starts 1 run or less.

      Again, Santana is fine. over half of his starts, seriously over half of his starts, he has given up 1 run or less. That’s damn good.

      1. Mr North Jersey

        Not sure if that is meant for me since it’s nested under me but just in case I am not suggesting there is anything wrong with him.

        1. trs86

          Just backing you up.

          1. Mr North Jersey

            Gotcha Thank you then.

  2. Kingman 26

    Very misleading and really wrong.

    Look at the strikeouts.

    A strikeout pitcher whose Ks are down by 1/3 is going to have a higher ERA and allow more big hits. Precisely as Johan has done.

    —————————————–

    Johan has allowed 4 ER or more in 6 of his 15 starts.

    In 2008 he allowed 4 ER or more in 3 of his first 15 starts.

    In 2008 he allowed 4 ER or more FOUR times in 34 total starts.

    1. Mr North Jersey

      I don’t see how I am misleading when I say in 2010 Santana’s Starts with 3 Earned Runs or less was 9 it’s obvious then that
      (15 starts)-(9 starts)=(6 starts where he gave up 4 or more runs)

      As far as what the rest of the season holds I can’t say he may indeed have a higher ERA as you suggest but when I compared 2008 to 2010 his numbers are very close to each other minus the strikeouts so it is my opinion what is more important is looking at the overall season not just the last 3 starts.

      1. Kingman 26

        I am looking at his entire 2010….the decreased Ks and the dramatically increased incidence of allowing 4 ER or more is, to me, clear evidence of a decline.

        When added to the inarguable decline in his velocity, well, I hope in 15 more starts I am very wrong….but it’s not likely.

        That 1/3 decline in Ks may be largely responsible for the extra allowances of 4 ER, the higher WHIP, etc.

        Hey, I want Johan to finish the year something like 22-6. I am sure we agree on that.

        1. Mr North Jersey

          I respect your opinion I just don’t agree with you.

          1. Kingman 26

            Same here Mr N, and have a most excellent night.

          2. Mr North Jersey

            Same to you sir.

        2. oleosmirf

          many people dimsiss strikeouts by saying I dont care about how they get the out as long as they get it.

          Strikeouts prevent productive outs. they keep the runner out of scoring position so that the single moves him from 1st to 3rd not 2nd to home. the SO keeps the runner from scoring from 3rd whereas the groundout or deep fly brings him in.

          his hits and all those numbers might be the same but those SO are huge when it comes to preventing runs…

          1. Mr North Jersey

            And yet he has given up only 2 more earned runs in 2.2 less innings when compared to 2008.

          2. oleosmirf

            what was his run support in 2008 vs 2010?

          3. Mr North Jersey

            You would have to do the leg work on that one I guess.

            I am assuming you mean through his 1st 15 games also.

            I could not say but if you look at the table the info you need to figure it out is right there.

            You would want to look at the results column.

          4. trs86

            What does that have to do with his stats? He can’t control the run support. Again, 8/15 starts he has given up 1 run or less.

          5. Mr North Jersey

            Here you go Oleo.

            In 2010 the Mets scored a total of 49 runs over Santana’s 1st 15 starts for an average of
            3.26 runs per start in support of Santana.

            In 2008 the Mets scored a total of 72 runs over Santana’s 1st 15 starts for an average of
            4.80 runs per start in support of Santana.

            For a total difference of 1.54 runs per start in support of Santana.

          6. trs86

            Now that my friend, although I have no idea what the point of it is, is a big difference!

          7. Mr North Jersey

            Now we just wait for Oleo to expand on it I suppose.

          8. trs86

            Adding to this pointless point, in Santana’s 8 starts giving up 1 run or less he has only won 4 of them. Seriously. Who has stats like that? Shouldn’t you win 7/8 of those?

          9. johan4cy

            Good pitchers win games. If your team scores more runs, it becomes easier to be a good pitcher. If your team scores fewer runs, it makes you look bad. ERA is only a viable stat when you take run support into consideration. A pitcher who gives up 4 runs a game on a team that scores 5 runs a game is better than the pitcher who gives up 3 when his team scores 2.

          10. oleosmirf

            hmmm very interesting…now how many runs have the Mets scored as a team in 2010 compared to this time 2008.

          11. trs86

            Really? So a pitcher that wins with a terrible ERA like Trax always did is actually better than a guy who gives up less runs but his team does not score?

            Got it.

            Thanks.

            Next….

          12. Mr North Jersey

            Oleo with all due respect but what is the end game here?

            What is the point you are trying to make with your questions?

          13. johan4cy

            A pitcher shouldn’t be defined by how many runs he gives up, but by how often he can give up less than what his team scored. In the end wins and losses ae the only stats that count.

          14. johan4cy

            To clarify a little more, good pitchers do what they have to do to keep their team in line for a W

          15. trs86

            So in other words Steve Traschel was a better pitcher than Johan is. Got it.

          16. johan4cy

            I’d take the 2006 Steve Traschel over the 2010 Johan with run support incorperated, yes. You can’t ignore run support because that’s half the game. The team with the best ERA doesn’t necessarily win the division, it’s always the team with the most wins.

          17. trs86

            OK so just to clarify the 2006 Steve Trashcan with an ERA of 4.97, WHIP of 1.597, K/9 of under 5 and a H/9 over 10. You would take him over Santana?

            OK so alright, I am done responding to that.

          18. oleosmirf

            my point is whether the lack of run production is b/c the Mets offense isnt very good or b/c Johan happens to be unlucky enough to pitch against the other teams best pitcher?

          19. Kingman 26

            Trachsel over Santana??

            Boy, am I sorry I saw that remark.

            There has to be some sort of award for a comment that ridiculous.

          20. johan4cy

            Stats mean nothing. I would take his 15 wins over Santana’s (hopefully not!!) sub-15. You have proven yourself to be too dense to realize that WHIP and K/9 don’t get you into the playoffs, only WINS do. If Traschel had Santana’s run support, he would suck, but the point is he DID have that run support and you can’t change that.

          21. trs86

            Oleo that would be easy to determine. Just go to baseballreference.com and look at the game logs and see who he faced.

          22. trs86

            That’s ridiculous and I can’t believe I even responded after saying I would not. Again so you are basically saying you would trade Santana for Garland. Yet the even more dense thing to that is that if Garland then had Johan’s run support then he would win 1/5 games.

          23. johan4cy

            NO, it doesn’t work like that! Who’s to say that the Mets will score for Garland? Garland doesn’t have Johan’s run support, he has Garlands run support. You can go through a list of 40 different stats from pitchers and try to prove to me that a 12 game winner can be better than a 15 game winner, but to no avail because after all of this, you have yet to realize that wins count, ERA, WHIP, and BB/9 don’t. Run support is HALF of the win, you can’t overlook that.

    2. trs86

      In 2008 he was 8/15 2 runs or less, 5/15 1 run or less.
      2010 9/15 2 runs or less, 8/15 1 run or less.

  3. Kingman 26

    And he has amassed his highest WHIP since 2002, his 2nd highest ERA since 2001, and the lowest K/9 of his career.

    Nah, these stats don’t tell anything!

    1. Mr North Jersey

      Then I guess I wasted my time.
      I thought it did.

      1. Kingman 26

        Oh come on, the other day you mocked my post on Maine based on its length!

        :-)

        1. prismo

          *yawn* even this comment is too long

          I just skipped to the smiley face.

          Glad you’re so chipper Kingman.

          1. Kingman 26

            :-)

            Chipper Kingman.

            That has a revoltingly nice ring to it.

          2. Kingman 26

            Even though sometimes it may not seem like it, I really actually do spend most of my life smiling and laughing…..

        2. Mr North Jersey

          Not sure I see the connection but wouldn’t be the 1st time.

    2. trs86

      His ERA and WHIP are so close to his career averages that all you need to do is take about 4 hits and 2 runs away and he is at his career averages.

  4. oleosmirf

    it is so crucial that we make the playoffs this season. just to get excitement surrounding the team and ending this whole anxiety about the collapses.

    Omar needs to be proactive for once and get Johan some help…

  5. wannybackstra

    Mr. NJ:

    The problem is that with such a decreased K rate it is unlikely that the rest of the numbers remain consistent with the numbers from other years.

    And as Kingman has stated perfectly, the results have already been worse; but only to the point of rendering Santana merely good and no longer great.

    1. oleosmirf

      see I still say Santana is great, he’s just not a true ace, at least not right now…

    2. Mr North Jersey

      With all due respect I simply feel that in my opinion it’s a bit too early to suggest that Santana can no longer go up against the best in baseball and come out the victor in the end.

      Now if that is not what many are suggesting then my apologies for misinterpreting.

      1. oleosmirf

        i am suggesting he no longer is the favorite to win the battle at this present…not that he cant get it done or he wont get himself worked out.

        I believe we have a chance to win the division now as the Nationals will be a force in a few years. It would be better served to get someone who can take pressure off him.

    3. trs86

      His results are slightly below his career averages and account to a couple of runs and a few hits/walks away from his career averages.

      Again, if he is no longer great then how does he have 8/15 starts with 1 run or less?

      1. Kingman 26

        You can type the exact same thing a billion times, but ignoring a power pitcher’s Ks being down 1/3 over last year and his K/9 IP being the lowest of his career is ridiculous, as is ignoring the number of times he has allowed 4 ER thus far.

        No matter how many times you say the same exact cherry-picking thing, it still ignores the obvious and indisputable elephants in this stat room, the K/9 and the huge decrease in velocity.

        And, from 2003-2008 Johan was a dominant superstar pitcher. His career stats are brought down by his first three years and 2009-2010. His 2010 numbers are–across the board and undeniably–down significantly from his now-over period of dominance of 2003-2008.

        1. trs86

          Have not cherry picked anything Kingman. Can you deny that he has given up 1 run or less in 8/15 starts?

          Yes his velocity is down as is his K/9 but it appears that based on his total stats he has learned to pitch with these issues. Yes he has had more 4ER starts but wouldn’t that also be “cherry picking” as well?

          If you had a pitcher on a team that is 9 games over .500 with 8/15 starts 1 run or less and 9/15 2 runs or less how many wins would you expect him to have?

          1. Kingman 26

            I’d certainly expect his record to be a lot closer to Pelf’s. Maybe 9-5 if he had a decision almost every game?

            I love Johan. He is a leader and a frigin warrior.

            But he just isn’t the same pitcher he was from 2003-2008; the surgeries have decreased his velocity.

            I love having him, but I just don’t see him being what he was in the past again.

          2. trs86

            Again, he does not have to have a high K/9 or velocity to win games. He has shown that in how dominant he has been in over half of his starts.

            What the 4 run games may show however, that if his control is off he will struggle more.

          3. Kingman 26

            Agree with the first point very much.

            But to me, the 6 out of 15 games allowing 4+ ER shows how non-dominant he is over time.

            But again, I love him on the team and having him locked up for years.

          4. trs86

            I wonder how many pitchers there are out there with 8/15 starts 1 run or less yet still has 6 starts 4 runs or more? LOL. Pretty much means that as I said if his control is on he is dominant and if not…. well….

          5. Kingman 26

            LOL! I was thinking the same thing, but don’t have time right now to check it out!!

            I think we actually are just taking different circuitous routes to get to the same point here Chief!

            We like Johan–Johan is good!

            I am out for the night; let’s get another streak going tomorrow!

            Have a good one TRS!

          6. trs86

            later king.

  6. stickguy

    he also is pitching in a more pitcher friendly ballpark, and pretty sure the 2010 defense is a lot better than the 2008 version. So if anything, the real raw difference is being masked.

    and the K rate change is huge. also a major thing looked at with prospects. A K rate below 6 won’t get you out of the minors.

    pitchers dont lose 1/3 of their ks for no reason.

    1. Kingman 26

      Hey Stick, I had a piece all ready to go criticizing Omar and Jerry and Warthen titled “The Strange Case of Jennry Mejia” and then before I posted it they sent him down!

      Now there’s NOTHING left to criticize!

      :-)

      1. stickguy

        I will find something for you.

        maybe yoyoing from using guys daily, to 1 time per week? Neive being a good case.

      2. Mr North Jersey

        Remind me to quote this comment by you if we ever fall back below .500 cause if there was ever a case of Jekyll & Hyde symptoms you have def shown signs to be a good candidate for it.

  7. Hazmet

    So at the end of the day it’s time for Johan to add another pitch like Glavine did.

    1. Hazmet

      ** to get a few more swing & misses

      1. Mr North Jersey

        Well again according the the table his strikes that results in swings and misses have a 2% difference from 2008 to 2010.

        1. Hazmet

          I actually agree with your position. :)

          I’m waiting for the second half to tell the tale. If somewhere in August his jump is back and his FB’s at 92 we’re not even having this discussion. I do think he may need to start to think about adding a pitch at this stage of his career just to give a different look to give hitter’s something else to think about. In a wierd way, he may be able to actually learn from Taka with his myriad of different pitch’s and looks. Johan’s a master whose relied on pure stuff, it may be time for him to take a page from Taka’s book for his future.

  8. Hazmet

    FYI – anybody catch 16th round draft pick Ryan Fraser in his Cyclone debut? Looked good with 2 K’s. Nice late break on his slider. Big looking kid but listed at 6-4 / 210. Hope he learns to drive more with his legs. Looks like he’s 90% arm strenth, 10% leg drive. Nice Pick.

    1. metsfan4decades

      Sure did Hazmet. I believe Wally was very complimentary on him too during that 2nd or 3rd inning interview.

      And BTW, who in the world designed those psycho-delic(sp?)jerseys for the Cyclones? Reminds me of the tie-dyed tee shirts of my youth…

      1. Hazmet

        Yeah those uni’s were something. I believe they said they were part of a charity promotion they’re participating in. Wally just so didn’t look right in one of those things.

        That was some nasty late break the kid has.

        1. stickguy

          sounds good. fast track him. July in Bingo, August in Buffalo, and mets pen in september.

  9. oleosmirf

    the big question here is why does Johan seem to either give up 1 ER or less or give up 4 ER or less.

    Why is it that he has only one start where he only have up 2 or 3 ER???

    1. oleosmirf

      4 ER or more that is

      1. stickguy

        he is either on of off? And Johan right now seems to have very little margin for error, so anything other than his best usually ends up in a higher number.

        1. oleosmirf

          just seems very odd thats all…he is either really good, or kinda bad. no in between…

          1. stickguy

            2 pitch pitcher with no margin for error. if it ain’t working right, nothing to really fall back on.

          2. trs86

            Actually Johan has thrown more sliders this year than he has his entire career with the Mets and the most he has since 2006.

          3. oleosmirf

            maybe his sliders arent very good?

          4. trs86

            Well it’s obviously not his best pitch but he has had better results with it this year than he has the last 2 years. Kind of showing his injury issues.

    2. trs86

      I think it really shows control issues which is exactly what Johan has mentioned. He could not finish his pitches last year and is now adjusting back to his normal release point and mechanics. Pitching with bad habits for a year I am sure does not fix itself over night.

      1. oleosmirf

        well lets say a month from now Santana is still having mechanical problems, do you think it would be wise to trade for Lee…or hope and pray he fixes his mechanics in time?

        1. trs86

          I think they are independent of each other. Lee depends more on the entire staff than it does Santana.

          All I know is that if Johan has his normal 2nd half and already he is giving up 1 run or less in over half of his starts we are fine in that spot.

          1. oleosmirf

            well lets say Santana is on same pace as now, Pelfrey and Niese have slowed down a little and Takahashi and Dickey are exactly the same. The Mets are 4 games behind the Braves and 2 games behind the Phillies.

            do you make the move for Lee?

          2. trs86

            Most likely not. Hard for 1 guy to make a 4 game difference. Especially IF in your scenario Taka and Dickey are the same. How many wins over Dickey/Taka would Lee give us if they are pitching like they are now?

          3. stickguy

            not many

          4. oleosmirf

            well if Santana is no longer the ace, he can get more run support by not pitching against the ace, and Takahashi in the pen, can prevent the bullpen from blowing a game.

            I think 1 great SP can have that impact…

  10. GravediggerHebner

    I admire Santana’s guts and guile and how he is doing very well in his diminished state but to me he’s clearly diminished. Yes it’s only part of a season and yes for his career, though less so with the Mets than overall, he’s a second half pitcher, I understand these facts and I understand the excellent charts above which are great although they deal solely with his Met career not his overall career, but:

    The lowest K rate and highest BB rate, and thus lowest K/BB rate of his career as a starter;

    His ERA has increased annually since he joined the Mets;

    His WHIP has increased annually since he joined the Mets and is currently at a career high as a starter;

    His fastball has been getting slower annually since he joined the Mets and is at a career low;

    Hitters are swinging at the lowest percentage of his pitches in the strikezone at any time in his career while making contact when they do swing with the highest percentage of his pitches in the strikezone at any time in his career;

    Hitters are also making the greatest percentage of contact with his out of the strikezone pitches of anytime in his career, combined with the above leading to hitters making the highest percentage of contact with any thrown pitch, strike or not, of his career;

    His swing and miss strike percentage is the lowest of his entire career;

    His first pitch strike percentage is the lowest of his career;

    So while I anxiously await the second half surge that his career suggests he will have, I can’t just ignore all this information which doesn’t bode well. To make his surge he has a lot of numbers to turn around and he’s a lot older and has a lot more innings on his arm than the last time he had this surgery and the amazing second half that followed it.

    1. stickguy

      all pointing out, he doesn’t have the 2 pitches currently to be successful as a 2 pitch pitcher.

      Now, add something to change the plane (a real curve, maybe a slider) and something like the neise or Petite cutter, and he could start reversing some of those numbers.

      1. GravediggerHebner

        Maybe R.A. can show him a knuckler.

      2. trs86

        Again, how is it that in over half of his starts he has given up 1 run or less?

        Couldn’t it be more about what HE says the problem is? He is struggling in some games with his release point because of his injury last year?

        1. stickguy

          still sounds odd, considering when ST excited he was so excited about how wonderful his arm felt, and how he had full extension again.

          1. trs86

            He does have full extension. He has said he is completely healthy. He is just struggling with the mechanics now that he can finish the pitch. I can’t think of how to explain it but let me try…

            If you played golf and injured your knee. You might not be able to hit the ball with proper mechanics so you adjusted your swing to avoid pain. Then once you were healthy you can go back to your old swing but it’s been a long time since you used it. Some swings you would find your old swing but at times you would find yourself going back to that bad habit you learned when injured and hit a terrible shot.

    2. trs86

      Wouldn’t it only be fair to compare this years numbers to his career averages in the first half as we know he is traditionally a 2nd half pitcher?

      1. GravediggerHebner

        Perhaps but no one is breaking it down that easily for me using the numbers I would like.

        I do appreciate the numbers that Mr. NJ has put together above but I can’t escape that at the time 2008 was by many peripheral measures (WHIP, K/9, BB/9, K/BB, FB velocity, with ERA being a notable exception) the worst season of Johan’s career, so that’s why I don’t find it very reassuring to have it pointed out to me that his current season is roughly on par with the same point in a season that ultimately ended up being a then-career worst season, eclipsed as worst only by a subsequent injury-plagued 2009.

        I agree that being almost as good as he was in the worst season of his career before he got injured can be a good thing but when that comparison season is by so many measures a worst I’m just not really feeling it.

    3. Mr North Jersey

      I guess it comes down to what you choose to look at when examining his starts this season because while everything you said is 100% accurate he still in the end has managed to have 8 starts where he gave up 1 earned run or less.

      While others would rather focus on the fact that he has managed to have 6 starts where he gave up 4 earned runs or more.

      1. trs86

        Which averaged together gives you right at about his career average and actually less than his career first half average.

  11. trs86

    Wow this has been informative. I now think the Mets should trade Johan for Derek Lowe who has been god awful but the Braves have bailed him out for 9 wins. He is clearly the better pitcher. Gonna be tough as he has more wins than Halladay so the Phillies may get there first.

    Thanks Johan4Cy, I almost woke up my family laughing.

    1. stickguy

      Real, you are missing the ultimate irony.

      Look at the handle of the poster saying it.

      1. trs86

        Oh no, I got it a LONG time ago. He’s been anti for a while.

    2. johan4cy

      NO, it doesn’t work like that! Who’s to say that the Mets will score for Lowe? Lowe doesn’t have Johan’s run support, he has Lowe’s run support. You can go through a list of 40 different stats from pitchers and try to prove to me that a 12 game winner can be better than a 15 game winner, but to no avail because after all of this, you have yet to realize that wins count, ERA, WHIP, and BB/9 don’t. Run support is HALF of the win, you can’t overlook that.

      And there is no irony lol, I made this a couple of years ago on MetsBlog when he was a true contender for it.

      1. trs86

        Yeah well again, I think we know where we stand. You think Lowe is a better pitcher than Santana and I adamantly, incredibly, definitely, undeniably disagree. Actually come to think of it, you think Lowe is a better pitcher than Halladay.

        1. johan4cy

          Over the span of their careers, no. Who has won the most games (the only true stat a pitcher needs) for his team this year, Lowe.

          1. trs86

            So again, you think Lowe is a better pitcher this season than Halladay and Johan? Right?

            Lets publish this anytime you make a comment ok?

          2. johan4cy

            Yes, thats my final answer. This answer is only valid if Lowe has more run support, which he does. So yes.

          3. oleosmirf

            you do realize that the pitcher has no control over his run support right?

            If Johan had Lowe’s run support, he’d have a better record than Lowe…

          4. trs86

            Let me save him time.

            Good pitchers win regardless of run support/ and or cause the team to score more runs. The pitcher with the most run support is the best pitcher.

            LOL

            You follow?

          5. johan4cy

            Yes, most likely. As I stated above, a good pitcher is one who finds a way to win given a certain amount of run support. If you have more run support, it is easier to be a “good” pitcher.

          6. trs86

            So in other words Johan’s 8 starts of giving up 1 run or less where he only won 4 of those he should have figured out a way to hold them to less runs.

          7. trs86

            Or let me put it another way.

            If Johan had an ERA of .069 and had 1 win because his team only averaged .5 runs for him per game, Lowe and his 5.00 ERA would still be better?

          8. johan4cy

            Yeah, I’d take more wins over less wins any day, wouldn’t you?

          9. trs86

            Wins are team, stats are individual.

            Lowe giving up 5 runs a game actually has almost nothing to do with his 9 wins.

          10. trs86

            Gonna be hard to take anything serious there. So let me ask you this in closing, who do you think the Braves would rather have? Lowe or Halladay/Santana?

          11. johan4cy

            If run support remains constant, Johan/Halliday. That sounds logicall but it doesn’t always work that way. What if they chose Halliday but only score 1 run per game for him? Was it worth it?

          12. trs86

            Not the point. Who do you think the BRAVES think is the better pitcher? Lowe or Halladay/Johan? Who do you think they would rather have?

          13. johan4cy

            logical*

          14. johan4cy

            The Braves, like all of you, would think that Johan/Halliday is better until they start to lose half of the games that he pitches 2-1. They would then be much happier when Lowe was getting them 6-5 wins.

          15. trs86

            LOL. Well again you could not assume the same run support for Johan on the Braves as Johan on the Mets could you? So I guess that if Johan started to give up more runs but suddenly the Mets started to actually score for him he would be pitching better?

          16. johan4cy

            As long as he won more games, yes. Baseball is about winning, not about stats.

          17. trs86

            I think you are giving way to much credit to the pitcher then. If a pitcher gives up 8 runs and the offense scores 9 runs the offense won that game not the pitcher.

            Hell, isn’t pitcher wins only a stat anyway? They don’t really matter, only team wins matter. Does it matter if the SP or relief pitcher won?

            Why even keep pitcher wins? The only thing that matters is if the team wins. Hell lets get rid of all stats and just go based on wins and losses. Gonna make scouting difficult but hell think about how clean the back of a baseball card would look. Of course all of the guys at baseball-reference would be out of a job. I am sending them your way, I want no part of it.

          18. johan4cy

            I shouldn’t have said that no stats count. I’ve said this a few times but the only stats that count for a pitcher are wins and losses.

          19. trs86

            Actually those don’t count either. The only ones that do are team losses as a pitcher could give up 8 and get a no decision or win or lose where as the team has to win or lose.

            You are also forgetting the negative effect the sucky pitcher has on the over all team. A pitcher that only goes 5 innings but wins could be costing his teams wins in reality by overworking the pen.

          20. johan4cy

            No, whether the team wins or loses after he leaves a tie game is beyond his control.

          21. trs86

            Well it could be. But again, they don’t add up pitcher wins at the end to figure out team wins. They keep that anyway. So again that stat is also pointless.

          22. johan4cy

            It’s not pointless, it represents his contribution to the team.

          23. trs86

            But if the team wins the game after he has a no decision did he not make a contribution to the team? Wouldn’t innings count as they are contributions to the team?

            I would guess a hitter should only be judged by runs scored?

  12. CaseStreet

    No problem. Johan is a man if there ever was a MAN.
    He’ll fix whatever is wrong

  13. CaseStreet

    I understand that johan’s k’s and velocity are down but ultimately it comes down to earned runs. His er now is almost exactly the same as 2008 and that’s including the 10 run game against the phillies.

    When johan’s earned runs #s start going up then I will be very concerned. For now, I’ll expect him to continue pitching to a low era.

    We can’t forget that Santana wasn’t just a flame thrower, the guy is a very smart pitcher. While I understand the cause for concern, I’m still confident that Johan can be a dominant pitcher. I’m sure he’s making his adjustments to continue being a very good pitcher.

    1. trs86

      ERA does not matter, only wins and losses. Keep up now. The better pitcher gets his team to hit more and gets more run support.

      1. johan4cy

        +1

        1. johan4cy

          NO, take the 1 back! The pitcher doesn’t make them score runs, he takes advantage of the runs they DO score.

          1. trs86

            So again, help me out. How do you explain the pitcher that does not win when he gives up 0 runs?

          2. johan4cy

            Unlucky. His team made it impossible for him to use his talent productivly enough to be considered “good.” I feel bad for him.

          3. trs86

            BUT if he gives up one run a game and never wins then he is just not a good pitcher.

          4. johan4cy

            Unfortunatley not… too bad for him, his team made it horribly difficult for him to be good and he obviously wasn’t up for the challenge. There’s no use in having a pitcher who doesn’t win any games, now is there?

          5. trs86

            LOL.

            Damn I wish we could trade for the terrible Zack Grienkie. Of course his lack of wins has nothing to do with his crappy team. Maybe the Royals will give up on him because he sucks?

          6. johan4cy

            whoops…

            I believe you are misunderstanding what I’m trying to say. His lack of wins has a lot to d with his crappy team. It’s easier to be good on a good team. GREAT pitchers are good with a crappy team. And yes, if they don’t score runs for him, they might as well trade him to a team who could take better advantage of his talent for a couple of prospects. A 2-8 pitcher is a 2-8 pitcher. Easily replaceable.

          7. johan4cy

            I believe you are misunderstanding what I’m trying to say. His lack of wins has a lot to d with his crappy team. It’s easier to be good on a good team. GREAT pitchers are good with a crappy team. And yes, if they don’t score runs for him, they might as well trade him to a team who could take better advantage of his talent for a couple of prospects. A 2-8 pitcher is a 2-8 pitcher. Easily replaceable.

          8. trs86

            Again that is ridiculous. We are right back where we started. Ultimately in baseball all that matters period is team wins and losses. Does not matter what a SP’s record even is. Team wins and losses are not stats. You don’t divide this or that to come up with their wins or have any factors that judge it. It does not matter to team wins and losses if the SP went 1 inning or the #4 hitter K’d 8 times. Only the final score.

            However, in baseball an individual pitcher or hitter’s ability and performance are judged based on stats. Sorry but that is the nature of baseball.

          9. johan4cy

            And what I’m saying is that a SP should be judged by two stats and two stats only: wins and losses. What has Greinke given the royals this year other than 2 wins and 8 losses? Moral? no…

          10. trs86

            96 innings?

          11. trs86

            You also are still not factoring in no-decisions and impact a great pitcher based on stats has on the future of the team.
            A pitcher with better stats most likely goes more innings thus has a better over all impact on your team in terms of BP use.

            So again a pitcher that gets a no-decision after 6 innings of work may be result in more TEAM wins than a pitcher that gets wins after 4 innings of work.

          12. johan4cy

            96 wasted innings, that is. There are many, many pitchers who can go 2-8. What makes Grienke any different? He was good last year?

          13. trs86

            Innings are never wasted because they are part of a needed total. If he does not pitch them someone else will have to which could result in over use of the pen and actually be more damaging in the long run than any amount of losses he himself can provide.

          14. johan4cy

            I’m sure someone of lesser trade value could have pitched those 96 innings and be 2-8 at this point.

          15. trs86

            Why would anyone trade for him? He sucks. He’s got a 2-8 record.

          16. trs86

            Anyway, thanks for the time occupier. I actually feel much better about myself and my philosophies on baseball now. Thanks.

          17. johan4cy

            People will trade for him because of his potential to be good under the right circumstances.

      2. johan4cy

        You know what, how about one of you makes an entire post about this so I can state my argument there and have everyone’s full attention on trying to prove me wrong. The reality is, though, you can’t. Wins count, pitching stats don’t.

      3. CaseStreet

        Actually, I take it back. Johan sucks. He’s not even top 10 on ESPN’s Cy Young Predictor, though Pelfrey is #5 right behind Billy.

  14. stickguy

    saw this little nugget in heyman’s latest column (about the 20 best non-FA moves of the off season). This was (duh) #12. Should give Knog that warm, fuzzy feeling you get after peeing on yourself, which is what the idea of Jerry getting a multi-year extension sounds like to me.

    12. The Mets’ decision to retain Jerry Manuel after an abysmal 2009 season

    Manuel was put on warning, but Mets ownership never seemed close to firing him, even after the team started poorly in 2010. To Manuel’s credit, a more confident, positive feeling in the clubhouse has aided the team’s rather stark turnaround to the top of the wild card standings. Manuel has a very thick skin (a necessity in New York) and a knack for developing a positive feeling, even when things appear down. He has an option for about $1.5 million for 2010, but a multiyear extension is in order.

    1. trs86

      I was listening to my local sports show do a part on baseball and they were talking about giving Jerry all the credit in the world for righting the ship under so immense pressure to succeed.

      1. stickguy

        that’s like giving the captain of the titanic credit for getting most of the passengers into lifeboats.

        1. trs86

          I guess. I still think that if you give him all the credit for sucking then by default you have to give him credit for winning.

          Of course by theory proposed today, if he is winning he is good.

          1. johan4cy

            lol… a manager’s work is completely intangible so I wouldn’t say that

          2. trs86

            So could a pitchers work any time there is a no decision right?

          3. trs86

            Besides, ultimately don’t you think Managers are judged on wins and losses more than even pitchers are?

          4. johan4cy

            No, pitchers have wins to show as a stat. A manager doesn’t win the game, the players do. Like I said, a manager’s work is intangible.

          5. trs86

            Actually a pitcher does not win a game, unless he scores the runs too, a team does. Thus his work is intangible….

            LOL. This could go on all night.

            Either way, a managers success is judged on wins and losses even more than a pitcher. You can’t really argue that. I have seen many good managers get fired because of wins and losses and many pitchers get big contracts that are 10-11 with great stats.

          6. johan4cy

            Pitchers don’t win by themselves, they need their run support (boy, now does that sound familiar) but they do get credided with wins where they are due. Managers don’t have stats.

          7. trs86

            Sure they do. Go type in their name on wikipedia or baseball reference. Right beside their name is w-l. Again pitchers don’t win crap, teams do. Pitchers help a team win games but they don’t actually WIN them.

          8. johan4cy

            Then why give players any stats? Let’s get rid of them all. I’m all for it. All I’m doing is chosing two stats that actually matter out of the hundreds that one can make up.

          9. johan4cy

            Anyway… to end it all… would you rather have 15 wins or 12 wins?

    2. GravediggerHebner

      So because Heyman initially thought the team was going to suck and so far it hasn’t sucked therefore the manager should get an extension?

      Maybe Heyman’s initial estimation of the team was just off.

      Jerry’s contract has an option in it so he’s not a lame duck.

      Seriously if this team misses the playoffs and in interviews at the end of the season players say “I was just freaked out by not knowing whether they were going to enact Jerry’s option or not” those players should be shot.

      1. trs86

        LOL.

  15. metsfan4decades

    I just finished reading through this whole thread and want to say I thoroughly enjoyed the debate on pitching, stats and win/losses. Interesting to see the different points of view. And what’s great about this site is all are allowed to present every which way about their point of view w/o getting cut off or someone calling them a ‘moron’….

    That being said, I’m counting on Johan to have a better second half this year. I think that surgery is taking longer to come back from than had he been younger.

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