The following comes from a combo of our friend Matt Cerrone of Metsblog, Fox Sports, and the New York Post:
“Bob Klapisch of FoxSports.com talked to Mets senior officials and says a) the team has no interest in trading Jon Niese to the M’s for Cliff Lee, and b) ‘they have no interest in acquiring either Kevin Millwood or Jake Westbrook.’
That said, according to Mark Hale of the New York Post, ‘The Mets are willing to trade for Lee without requiring a negotiating window to sign him to an extension.’
The Mets view Lee as a ‘rental player,’ who they are unwilling to trade Niese, Ike Davis or Jenrry Mejia to get.”
—————————————————–
If true, fans can rest easy, as this would be another instance of the team choosing caution and the future over gross overpayment—in dollars or prospects—for a pitcher with a very checkered career.
Cliff Lee will soon be 32, and does not have a career close to those of pitchers like Johan, Oswalt, Halladay, or the game’s recent true aces. Cliff Lee has had a couple of great years, a couple of good-to-very-good ones, several poor years, and several injuries.
His career record in no way justifies the kind of contract he will apparently seek as a free agent, no matter how good he looked in half a season with the Phils.
—————————————————–
Last offseason, the Nabob Chorus frequently pilloried Omar and the front office for not grossly overpaying for another clear non-ace in John Lackey, and for mediocre mid-rotation pitchers like Pineiro, Wolf, Marquis, etc. These decisions, in the bright glare of hindsight, look spectacular.
This is not to say that this team is complete; very possibly it is not. But the Mets currently have an outstanding and tantalizing mix of young veterans and rookies, along with lots of very promising help in the minors.
As 2006 showed, one can never tell when “The Year’ is going to present itself, but this team is not loaded with aging vets like the 2006 team was, and simply does not have the look of a group which is going to decline over the next couple of years.
—————————————————–
Great as he has been, Johan Santana clearly is feeling the effects of age and multiple surgeries; while still a very valuable pitcher, he is not what he was two years ago. He has several giant contract years left, and it seems very unlikely that the Mets will add another massive long-term deal to their payroll, for an aging pitcher whose career thus far is not in the same class as Johan’s.
It says here that this is excellent news. Trade for Lee, but without mortgaging the future, and without radically overpaying for him.
The Mets did not mortgage the future in the 1980s when trading for Hernandez and Carter. They did mortgage the future by trading Scott Kazmir for nothing. And Omar has very clear memories of his ridiculous deal for Bartolo Colon.
If the team has indeed learned from all of this, it is yet another thing for the fans to be thankful for as we continue to watch the team enter into a period of true revival and dramatic improvement, much quicker than many expected.
This team is set up for years of success with or without Cliff Lee. Trade for him without losing the key youngsters we have. Rent him for the rest of 2010 while he will be pitching his heart out for the one giant deal which is clearly what he is focused on. Then let someone else overpay him for the next 5-6 years. Don’t succumb to the temptation to overpay; patience will indeed be a virtue when carefully observing the extremely talented mix of players we have brewing in Queens.
—————————————————–
As this space has suggested before, Roy Oswalt is just one year younger than Cliff Lee, has had an unquestionably superior career, and would be under club control through 2012. His salaries are large, to be sure, but committing that kind of money for a better pitcher for just 2 ½ years would be a far wiser move than to pay the much larger cost in dollars (and possibly prospects) which Lee will require. Oswalt is due 16 million in 2011 and 2012, but with a 2 million club buyout for the second year. This is not a huge amount of money to commit to a player with Oswalt’s numbers.
Despite his W-L record, Oswalt’s ERA, WHIP, K/9, etc are all quite good this year. As are Lee’s. But their careers and contract situations clearly show which hurler is a much better fit for the Mets.
Johan, Oswalt, Pelfrey, Niese as the top four for the next 2 and ½ years? That’s a serious recipe for success.
132 comments
rustyjr
6/23/2010-9:44am at 9:44 am (UTC -4)
Awesome read kong – I just have a feeling the mets get a second tier pitcher ala harden or carmona , while trying to stabilize the bullpen
fongy2
6/23/2010-9:52am at 9:52 am (UTC -4)
Brock, while I agree with you
in full, I must say you are very hardcore anti-Lee.
I know he’s not Johan or CC BUT
hes had more than one real good
year. Not sayin’ I’d give up much for him as a rental AND almost no way he signs an extention BUT…Man I saw him
Sooo much last year after he came to the Phillies and he really saved their season.
Also, his post-season was about as good as I can remember. That said, given the chance to get him,giving up
serious prospects AND being able to talk to AND sign him to an extention, i’d rather have Oswalt….Or even Haren for the prospects.
I also agree w/Mgmt, I don’t move Niese,Meijia or Ike in
any such deal.
stickguy
6/23/2010-10:02am at 10:02 am (UTC -4)
neise goes no where. That has to be a given. ANd trading Ike would be such a shocker, I can’t even imagine what the deal would be.
Mejia is available though for the right return (Haren, my man crush).
Once guys are established (and I know they are just settling in, but they have certainly shown they belong) in the majors, the value goes way up from being a “can he do it” prospect. Plus, it leaves a gaping hole on the roster to fill!
trs86
6/23/2010-10:02am at 10:02 am (UTC -4)
That extension worries me more than even prospects. 5/100 for Lee? NO.
Kingman 26
6/23/2010-9:54am at 9:54 am (UTC -4)
Thanks Rusty!
And Fong, I am not anti-Lee completely; just against trading the cream of the farm for him, and the idea of a 5/90 deal based on his career is crazy.
I know he is real good, but look at some of his years, his age, and his injuries.
njstuckintx
6/23/2010-10:00am at 10:00 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, for all those leary of Oswalts injuries, I’d be just as leary of Lee’s.
stickguy
6/23/2010-10:20am at 10:20 am (UTC -4)
for the rest of this year, I am not that worried about either guy holding up (miracles of modern medicine).
for 2-5 years after this? Yes, I worry!
trs86
6/23/2010-10:34am at 10:34 am (UTC -4)
Why would we care if he holds up for 2-5 years? He is only under contract this year and next with an option.
stickguy
6/23/2010-10:45am at 10:45 am (UTC -4)
i am assuming Oswalt has his optin exercised, and the 5 years is the reported contract requirement for Lee.
trs86
6/23/2010-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
OK well assuming that Oswalt DOES force his option to be picked up then his trade value goes down. I don’t have a fear for us getting NOTHING out of him for 2.5 years.
fongy2
6/23/2010-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
I’m with ya….
I want no part of a
5+yr deal, which he’d likely get AND 270+innings last yr,
500innings the past two
yrs make be very nervous with him as well.
Also, since I’m a big believer in diff styles
make for the best rotation,I don’t like
the fact that him and Johan are very similar in terms of “stuff”.
njstuckintx
6/23/2010-9:46am at 9:46 am (UTC -4)
You had me at hello.
Kingman 26
6/23/2010-9:55am at 9:55 am (UTC -4)
stickguy
6/23/2010-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
I agree with the Lee part. If they can get him for a reasonable (although still ouchy) talent cost, roll the dice and go for it. But in no case (including if they don’t trade for him) sign this guy to a huge deal starting next year.
Oswalt? Only if the talent cost is insignificant (relatively), and it is really a salary dump. Anyone that was disgnosed as needing back surgery, but gets shots to pitch through disk issues, is living on borrowed time.
I personally prefer haren (by far), but no indications if he is actually available, or at a less than nose-bleed cost.
Of the 3, Lee is pitching the best right now, and if you are renting essentially for the playoffs, he has a great track record in that regard.
Oswalt? If he holds together this year, a very nice upgrade. But consider the real possibility that he could become an ollie-like contract drag (for 33% more $) if he does break down, for 2011 and 2012.
Because 1 thing for sure. If they get Oswalt, there will be no other big (heck, medium) $ FA pitcher brought on board. so it will be the current crop + Oswalt through 2012, whether they are on the field or not.
Oh, I assume he will not approve a trade unless his large 2012 option is picked up. I wouldn’t!
njstuckintx
6/23/2010-10:03am at 10:03 am (UTC -4)
Stick, I know you mention Oswalt and shots before every game. Where have you read/heard this? I know he got 1 shot for sure, but I pretty certain that was a 1 time deal.
And Johan, Oswalt, Pelf, Niese, Mejia… Do you really need to add much more?
trs86
6/23/2010-10:14am at 10:14 am (UTC -4)
Yeah I have found one shot back in March.
njstuckintx
6/23/2010-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
I think people have this perception that Oswalt is father time and Lee is some spring chicken. Maybe due to Oswalt being awesome for so long he’s been on people’s radar for a longer time, while Lee has only really been good for the past few years?
Either way, I have wanted and still want Oswalt. Tejada has more value to Houston than he would to Seattle.
And I can’t see the Astros flipping Oswalt to the Rangers with the potential of him winning with them. That would be a “silver boot” black mark on them. (the silver boot is what they call the interleague matchup between the rangers and astros. It’s more of an overflow from the cowboys/texans hatred, but it’s still a point of pride with the local yokels).
stickguy
6/23/2010-10:33am at 10:33 am (UTC -4)
I would trade Tejada, if you were comfortable that Oswalt wasn’t living start to start. Him + Gee + an A ball B type, , someone like that, and take on the salary.
If Houston wants way more than that, they can keep him.
I really do not see much of a market for Oswalt. Not with being on the hook for 32 million beyond this year (most likely).
njstuckintx
6/23/2010-10:35am at 10:35 am (UTC -4)
Technically, they’d only be on the hook for 18, right? 16 for 2011 + 2mill buyout for 2012 (or the 16 mill for 2012 if he’s still rocking it like an allstar)?
trs86
6/23/2010-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, unless he forces the extension. But if he does that I might be more concerned about the injury because to me he would RATHER come up as a FA after 2011.
stickguy
6/23/2010-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
depends on whether he is more comfortable rolling the dice on 2012+, or would rather guarantee himself the extra 14mill.
I can’t see him getting more than that at age 34 as a FA, but hey, it is up to him.
trs86
6/23/2010-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
Really? More than 14M total for a 34 year old? He would be set up for a 3 year deal after 2011 if he chose FA.
njstuckintx
6/23/2010-10:51am at 10:51 am (UTC -4)
Is it a player option? I thought the 2 Mill buyout was a team option.
This does bring up the point if he would require the option to be guaranteed if he agreed to waive the NTC, but at this point, I think he just wants to get the hell out of Dodge!
trs86
6/23/2010-10:53am at 10:53 am (UTC -4)
Yeah it’s possible that he would force the extension but that’s risky for him and Houston. The Astros would get LESS in trade and Oswalt would risk not getting traded.
trs86
6/23/2010-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
Assuming he forces the extension which he very well may not. He may would rather get into FA.
That being said I see no articles, or signs of Oswalt “living start to start”.
trs86
6/23/2010-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
I can’t find any info on Oswalt’s diagnosis other than he had a herniated disk last season and sit him self down in early September. They changed his routine and he had some small issues in the Spring.
That being said his ERA is the lowest since 2006 and whip lowest since 2001. K/9 best since 2001. SO/BB best since 2006.
stickguy
6/23/2010-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
ask MF. If you have ever dealt with serious or chronic back issues, you would know!
I am not very good at finding old stuff but maybe I will look latere anyway. But what sticks in my mind is that he had a disk problem, that ultimately needs surgery, but he is trying to pitch through it (and the shot (cortisone?) was part of that). Maybe the shot per start was just a commenter supposition, I do not know.
But, that is why I want no part of him for 2 years beyond this one, especially when his contract likely means that he is the only big name SP you are getting in that time. whether or not he is on the field.
trs86
6/23/2010-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
I can’t find ANYTHING on him needing surgery for it. He rested it, changed his routine, was stiff in March and got a shot. There’s been nothing else published by any reporter.
metsfan4decades
6/23/2010-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
No matter what Omar winds up doing, I think we’re all in agreement that we need another SP – especially for depth, as that’s a little scary. We’re one more injury away from a disaster as I don’t see much consistency in the minors able to step up. Nieve, IMO, is more suited for the BP as the long man.
We get another very good SP, you can put either Dickey or Taka in the BP, which just strengthens that even more.
Niese, Ike has to be off the table. Mejia I’d rather not give up either but for the right deal…
I’d rather get Lee on a rental only. I don’t know why we’d have to give up top prospects. I don’t think either Philly or Seattle did.
I’m torn on Oswalt. He’s got a herniated disc, from what I’ve read. That could shut him down, or he could continue to pitch the rest of his career never getting any worse. That’s a roll of the dice….
stickguy
6/23/2010-10:30am at 10:30 am (UTC -4)
neither team really gave up anyone “studly”. They all held onto the top guys. And none of the guys traded has been setting the world on fire.
Phiully got a SP that was so bad, he had to get demoted to A ball (from AA), and a couple of guys that are years away from even knowing.
fongy2
6/23/2010-10:14am at 10:14 am (UTC -4)
Just saw that mlbtraderumors headline
“A’s may hold onto Sheets”……….
Yeah, good luck with that Billy Beane!
….And I’ve called Omar thick-headed.
Hey Billy…”Know when to fold ‘em!”
trs86
6/23/2010-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)
Fongy that’s classic Billy Beane the most overrated GM in baseball. Say we are going to keep him to try and increase value.
trs86
6/23/2010-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
Also Sheet’s velocity is still not back to 2008 level.
fongy2
6/23/2010-10:25am at 10:25 am (UTC -4)
And with him,his
next pitch might well be his last!
And we totally agree about how
friggin’overrated Beane is and has been.
ceetar
6/23/2010-10:58am at 10:58 am (UTC -4)
Michael Kay says Beane is only struggling now because he wrote moneyball. he should’ve kept it a secret.
trs86
6/23/2010-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
Or because moneyball just like any tactic has serious flaws.
fongy2
6/23/2010-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
Agreed
Again!
fongy2
6/23/2010-10:27am at 10:27 am (UTC -4)
Well it looks like the Bravos just got their wish and freddi was fired
in Miami!…There’s Bobby Cox’ replacement!
Mr North Jersey
6/23/2010-10:33am at 10:33 am (UTC -4)
“There’s Bobby Cox’ replacement!” Yep those were Evan Roberts words exactly.
metsfan4decades
6/23/2010-10:34am at 10:34 am (UTC -4)
And didn’t the Marlins win last night?
Marlins don’t have much of a track record with managers. They fired Girardi after 2006 when he was named Manager of the year in the NL.
Anyone who takes that job knows it’s probably short term. The Marlins have one of the lowest, if not lowest payroll. Heck MLB had to slap their hands this off season to get them to spend any money. Kind of hard to win constantly when you’re relying on young talent coming up always getting it done.
stickguy
6/23/2010-10:41am at 10:41 am (UTC -4)
It seems hard for a young guy to break into managing in the majors. But, once you get the first gig, you keep getting recycled (unless you are a complete bone head).
Basically, this is a starter job, just to have something on your resume!
trs86
6/23/2010-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)
That’s pretty shocking. When you look at their roster, 6 games under is about the best they can do.
ceetar
6/23/2010-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
Well, you’d assume he’d be looking for a raise next year, so there you go..
trs86
6/23/2010-11:14am at 11:14 am (UTC -4)
True, any manager can go in there and compete but not really compete for the division. Hell you or I could do that.
stickguy
6/23/2010-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)
Did not find much in a quick look from this year. But, this article has a bit of detail on wha tthe problem is, and what happened last year.
Basically, it is degenerative, and he finally broke down later in the year. Which is the worry with something like that. If it can’t stand the strain from the season, instead of getting a horse for the playoff stretch run and post seson, you get Ollie back!
This would need some serious medical review.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bb/6622244.html
trs86
6/23/2010-10:42am at 10:42 am (UTC -4)
But even in that it never said that surgery was necessary.
stickguy
6/23/2010-10:50am at 10:50 am (UTC -4)
a bad disk is like having termites eat the sill plates of your house.
managing the problem is sticking up some 2/4s to keep the house from falling down (hopefully).
Fixing it is jacking up the house, and replacing all the sills.
You can’t fix that kind of problem. Even the surgery is a form of managing it (mostly trying to keep it from getting worse).
trs86
6/23/2010-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
So what you are saying is that there is no evidence of surgery being necessary?
metsfan4decades
6/23/2010-10:58am at 10:58 am (UTC -4)
This is scary more than anything:
Oswalt admitted the disk problem was putting a strain on his arm.
“I could tell I was getting sore in different areas than I normally do,†Oswalt said. “I’m scared that trying to protect my back I’m going to start throwing a little bit more (with pressure on the) arm. I don’t want it to go to my shoulder.â€
******************
There’s all kinds of treatments out there now for herniated discs that only require non invasive surgery or no surgery at all. Problem is, if it doesn’t get rid of the pain, it’s probably going to start affecting everything else. And we’ve seen how that goes with a couple of our pitchers….
trs86
6/23/2010-11:13am at 11:13 am (UTC -4)
See I did not read that as his arm being sore in different areas as I did his back but you could be right.
Also there is no evidence of pain since the season started as he is putting up great numbers and going deep in the game.
stickguy
6/23/2010-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
degenerative issues don’t go away. ANd having had to “manage” a back issue, without having to try and pitch, it is not something that gives me a warm and fuzzy to hold together LT.
He has a history now of breaking down at the end of the year from the back. Like it or not, that is a red flag.
trs86
6/23/2010-10:51am at 10:51 am (UTC -4)
One year is a history?
Also those type of things “flare” up. If it was going to happen it’s just as likely that it happens tomorrow as in September.
All we know is that he is pitching incredible this year with his best numbers since 2006 and some better than that. Perhaps all the work he did in the off-season with his routine and strengthening exercises made him even better. Nah.
fongy2
6/23/2010-11:02am at 11:02 am (UTC -4)
Look, back issues are and can be very serious…See: Fonzie and Donnie Baseball…But what Oswalt,if he even does have a serious problem has going
for him is his size, small wirey type.
Also,he’s still in his prime as an athlete AND he’s a pitcher NOT an every-day plater.
As far as prospects, If Houston gets fixated on tejada and he can become the core of a deal….Done!…I like
the kid ALOT, I saw him in the minors a little last year and as a result I’m
natuarally biased toward keeping him..
BUT what will he eventually be???
A solid…For Average hitting middle
infielder with a plus glove, little
power, no better than average speed??
That type of player shouldn’t prevent
you from getting one of the better pitchers in the game,still in his early 30s, with a couple yrs left on his contract.
njstuckintx
6/23/2010-11:06am at 11:06 am (UTC -4)
Their major needs are SS, 2B, 3B and pitching (and 1B if you think they can actually move Berkman).
Tejada, Gee, Parnell and another mid-infield lower talent type would get it done i would think. Tejada and Parnell as the major league ready talent and Gee almost there. They need warm bodies at this point.
Murphy would have been a great player to ship their way… Maybe next year when he’s healthy!
trs86
6/23/2010-11:09am at 11:09 am (UTC -4)
It’s gonna take 1 top 10 player. Not top 5 but better than a deal built around a utility IF.
stickguy
6/23/2010-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
hey, tejada is a starting 2B now in the majors. They will be lucky to be getting that kind of proven ML player instead of some iffy prospect!
send them tejada, gee and campbell.
trs86
6/23/2010-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
Stick seriously even most of us agree that Tejada is a utility IF. For a top tier pitcher you will have to give up a decent prospect with potential.
Kingman 26
6/23/2010-11:26am at 11:26 am (UTC -4)
“send them tejada, gee and campbell”
Stick, you are losing your grip on reality my friend.
Too much time at FWICG.com.
That package might get us Kaz Matsui or Jeff Keppinger though.
trs86
6/23/2010-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
Come on it might get us Kepp and Carlos Lee with his entire contract and .223 .262 .379 .641 line.
Kingman 26
6/23/2010-11:43am at 11:43 am (UTC -4)
.262!!! OMG, had no idea he had sunk that far.
That’s ALMOST as bad of an OBP as future 1st ballot HOFer Chris Carter!
stickguy
6/23/2010-11:13am at 11:13 am (UTC -4)
take out parnell.
njstuckintx
6/23/2010-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
For you, no problem!
Mr North Jersey
6/23/2010-11:02am at 11:02 am (UTC -4)
Nice post, I don’t agree with everything in it but the core point of why Oswalt might be better than Lee is a valid argument.
For me I am not so hung up on either but I have to be honest for this season only I am leaning more to the idea of renting Lee for the stretch run.
trs86
6/23/2010-11:07am at 11:07 am (UTC -4)
I would agree if it did not cost us Mejia.
Kingman 26
6/23/2010-11:14am at 11:14 am (UTC -4)
Thanks Mr N, I sincerely appreciate that.
trs86
6/23/2010-11:05am at 11:05 am (UTC -4)
Crap I can’t believe I fell for the MB version.
The METS did not say they were not interested in Westbrook or Millwood types. A an anonymous PLAYER said he did not think it would help. LOL So John Maine does not want them to get Westbrook….
trs86
6/23/2010-11:22am at 11:22 am (UTC -4)
I still can’t believe no one is picking up on this. The Omar would most likely much rather go in the direction of a Westbrook than Lee or Oswalt. But they are not interested because some un-named player said they would not help?
njstuckintx
6/23/2010-11:37am at 11:37 am (UTC -4)
I thought it was more along the lines that Millwood or Westbrook weren’t any good kind of logic.
And that’s prob. GM banter to lower the price tag on Oswalt down to the flotsam that Stick would send the Astros way!
trs86
6/23/2010-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
No Mets official EVER said they were not interested in Westbrook or Millwood, only an un-named player.
youngvalerawest
6/23/2010-11:07am at 11:07 am (UTC -4)
All I have to say is that Angel Pagan has made a fool out of me and I’m happy for him. He just looks like a different guy this year.
When Beltran returns, Angel deserves the lion’s share of the time in RF ahead of Francoeur.
Mr North Jersey
6/23/2010-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
I know I am repeating myself but other than Mike Pelfrey the Mets CF Angel Pagan is the M.V.P. of this team.
trs86
6/23/2010-11:11am at 11:11 am (UTC -4)
No doubt.
stickguy
6/23/2010-11:14am at 11:14 am (UTC -4)
but not as good as frenchy.
trs86
6/23/2010-11:15am at 11:15 am (UTC -4)
?
stickguy
6/23/2010-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
I learned that last night. I will not make the mistake again of disparaging Mr. Francouer.
Mr North Jersey
6/23/2010-11:19am at 11:19 am (UTC -4)
wus
trs86
6/23/2010-11:20am at 11:20 am (UTC -4)
Never said he was above average Stick. Said he was not a problem on this team. Hell you know most of us were OK with him going away next year if Beltran was healthy.
trs86
6/23/2010-11:20am at 11:20 am (UTC -4)
Where I disagreed was that he is bad enough to be a problem this season and we needed to upgrade the spot from outside next year.
Kingman 26
6/23/2010-11:23am at 11:23 am (UTC -4)
Agreed totally.
And precisely how I feel about Jerry and Warthen as well.
Warthen may be the MVP of this team thus far.
Let Pagan play in RF against RH (19 of his 23 XBH and ALL 5 triples against RH!), let Frenchy play against LH when he is not in an icy cold stretch, and let Pagan play CF 1-2 games a week to keep Beltran healthy if and when he returns.
Everyone stays fresh, and the bench is immeasurably improved.
fongy2
6/23/2010-11:25am at 11:25 am (UTC -4)
FIRE JERRY!!!
Kingman 26
6/23/2010-11:28am at 11:28 am (UTC -4)
LOL! And liked your HoJo comment too….
fongy2
6/23/2010-11:35am at 11:35 am (UTC -4)
My friend,
I’m still tryin’ to score
C&W’s Box@CBP
for Mets/Phils the 1stWK of
Aug or
last WK
of Sept.
Its become more difficult b/c I’m not doing any work
for them
right now. I’m
tryin’to
go threw my wife
who still feeds them Claims..
I’ll keep you updated!
I was just offered
tix for Braves/
Phils for the series
just after the 4th of July…
No one to root for there!!
Kingman 26
6/23/2010-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
Fong, I literally have about 4 free weekends the next 3 months, and as of now those are 2 of them!!
Keep me posted buddy, and no matter what, I sincerely appreciate the thought and effort.
Mr North Jersey
6/23/2010-11:30am at 11:30 am (UTC -4)
I see your still in your corner and a nice corner it must be.
Here is a corner lamp for you so you can see when it gets dark
Kingman 26
6/23/2010-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
HAHA!! It IS a comfy corner, which I hope to be happy in all year.
And that’s a damn cool lamp!
trs86
6/23/2010-11:31am at 11:31 am (UTC -4)
Yeah it’s pretty easy to see Pagan, Frenchy and Beltran getting 4-5 games a week each.
metsfan4decades
6/23/2010-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
Too bad Pagan can’t play second….
fongy2
6/23/2010-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
Don’t give our FO any ideas!
See: Murphy to 2B, Hundley to RF, Samuel, HoJo and Keith Miller in CF…And of course
Mike Piazza to 1B!……
fongy2
6/23/2010-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
Ahh, I meant Hundley to LF….Still….
Don’t give them any ideas!!!!
metsfan4decades
6/23/2010-11:49am at 11:49 am (UTC -4)
LOL – well when I said play, I meant really play second base, not try and turn him into one right now….
Kingman 26
6/23/2010-12:06pm at 12:06 pm (UTC -4)
How about Reyes to 2B?!?!?!?!?!
njstuckintx
6/23/2010-12:13pm at 12:13 pm (UTC -4)
Argenis?
metsfan4decades
6/23/2010-12:15pm at 12:15 pm (UTC -4)
Given how poorly Reyes did when they changed his batting order, we can’t seriously be thinking about moving him from SS. I don’t know that Jose does change well…
Does Pagan play SS? I thought he was strictly an OF.
trs86
6/23/2010-12:20pm at 12:20 pm (UTC -4)
LOL 4D, need your sarcasm detector.
I think King was referring to the incredibly dumb idea to move Reyes to 2B.
Kingman 26
6/23/2010-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
Right as usual Chief!
Was shocked that Fong forgot that one!
I am also gleefully ready to admit that I was ALSO wrong about Jose batting 3rd.
trs86
6/23/2010-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
That last part I am not ready to admit yet, I am stubborn. Could just have been that he needed more time to return to Reyes levels. What we will never know is if lead-off did that to him or not.
youngvalerawest
6/23/2010-12:35pm at 12:35 pm (UTC -4)
It’s funny that they moved Reyes to 2B because they thought he’d be like… well, Reyes, but he is in fact more like Luis Castillo.
youngvalerawest
6/23/2010-12:37pm at 12:37 pm (UTC -4)
he being matsui
trs86
6/23/2010-12:39pm at 12:39 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, kind of hair brained for sure. Someone help me out if I remember correctly wasn’t that a Kaz stipulation? That he had to play SS?
metsfan4decades
6/23/2010-1:10pm at 1:10 pm (UTC -4)
Yes, I believe that had everything to do about them wanting Matsui to play SS….
metsfan4decades
6/23/2010-1:08pm at 1:08 pm (UTC -4)
Oops – LOL…..
darknova306
6/23/2010-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
Good read, Kingman. I’d agree with Lee as a rental if not giving up too much for him. He’d make that rotation sick for the stretch run, but as stated earlier in this thread, I want no part of the contract he’s going to get this offseason.
Here’s to some cautious optimism.
Kingman 26
6/23/2010-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
Thank you sir!!
johan4cy
6/23/2010-12:41pm at 12:41 pm (UTC -4)
Are you trying to say that the Mets would have a better chance of winning the World Series with Oswald rather than with Lee? I would have to disagree.
trs86
6/23/2010-12:44pm at 12:44 pm (UTC -4)
I doubt it because I have no idea who he even is.
Mr North Jersey
6/23/2010-12:47pm at 12:47 pm (UTC -4)
Always the Smart A$$
trs86
6/23/2010-12:49pm at 12:49 pm (UTC -4)
I learn from the best NJ. What do I owe you?
Mr North Jersey
6/23/2010-2:00pm at 2:00 pm (UTC -4)
We both know I have nothing to do with you being a smart a$$. That you already was way before I ever came into the picture.
johan4cy
6/23/2010-12:53pm at 12:53 pm (UTC -4)
Ha Ha…..yeah… but really, you guys think that we’d be better off with Oswalt?
trs86
6/23/2010-12:56pm at 12:56 pm (UTC -4)
Longterm maybe, this season maybe not.
Again it all depends on prospects needed. I expect Oswalt to be cheaper and I like the fact that he is here for next year. Lee my issue is still that if it cost a top prospect for a rental and if not a rental his contract would make Oswalt’s look safe as hell.
njstuckintx
6/23/2010-12:58pm at 12:58 pm (UTC -4)
My guess would be on par to slightly below what Lee would give you, for a little more prospect wise, but an additional 2 years of control.
trs86
6/23/2010-1:00pm at 1:00 pm (UTC -4)
I am not sure the prospect cost is much more or any more. He cost more and could want the option picked up. I think those will hold his value down.
njstuckintx
6/23/2010-1:03pm at 1:03 pm (UTC -4)
I hope so and all the better.
johan4cy
6/23/2010-1:16pm at 1:16 pm (UTC -4)
Well the way this season is moving along, if Beltran comes back productive, I feel trading for Lee makes us legit World Series contenders which is worth giving up mejia for as long he’s the only top prospect given up. There is no reason to hope for the future when the opportunity is here now. Anyway, I doubt mejia will ever be as valuable for us as Lee can be this season. I don’t think Oswalt is good enough at this point of his career to push it to that next level.
Kingman 26
6/23/2010-2:20pm at 2:20 pm (UTC -4)
“There is no reason to hope for the future when the opportunity is here now.”
Yes, yes there is.
Maybe Trachsel will come out of retirement–that would give us hope!
johan4cy
6/23/2010-3:14pm at 3:14 pm (UTC -4)
No, no there isn’t. Why waste time planning for the future when our opportunity to win now is greater than any other time in the near future? I’d risk giving up someone who might be good for someone who IS good and can make a difference NOW!
And btw, the Traschel plan would only work if he gets at least 10-15 runs a game in support.
Kingman 26
6/23/2010-2:07pm at 2:07 pm (UTC -4)
Well, Oswalt has been better than Lee almost every year.
And you think Trachsel was sometimes better than Johan, right?
njstuckintx
6/23/2010-12:53pm at 12:53 pm (UTC -4)
When do we think the dominoes will start to fall. 2 weeks time?
GravediggerHebner
6/23/2010-1:39pm at 1:39 pm (UTC -4)
I completely agree with this bit:
“…Cliff Lee. Trade for him without losing the key youngsters we have. Rent him for the rest of 2010 while he will be pitching his heart out for the one giant deal which is clearly what he is focused on. Then let someone else overpay him for the next 5-6 years.”
I have a higher opinion of Lee than you do but even I don’t want them to re-sign him after 2010.
You guys have rather thoroughly gone over Oswalt’s back above so I’ll just say it’s concerning to me. Not so much that I just don’t want him but enough to make me hesitate and hope the Mets would do all the due diligence on it plus some more diligence.
Bad backs are ticking time bombs and all we can do is hope the bomb goes off after his current contract runs out. We are all at a loss to predict when the end will come, only that it will come. All pitchers are 1 throw away from devastating injury anyway so ultimately I won’t let his back be THE REASON I don’t acquire him.
I do also worry about how Oswalt fits into the budget over the next 2 years, given the raises coming to core guys who aren’t going anywhere, Reyes’ pending free agency, and lots of roster spots to fill. His salary is not exorbitant in and of itself (in fact I consider it pretty reasonable) but it’s how it fits in with the rest of the roster that gives me pause. Like his back, it’s not THE REASON why I don’t acquire him.
But the back and the salary combine to make me lean more toward 3 months of Lee. When you say “…This team is set up for years of success with or without Cliff Lee…” I agree and would say the same exact thing about Roy Oswalt.
Kingman 26
6/23/2010-2:19pm at 2:19 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed sir, and as for the last paragraph, I guess I was thinking in terms of how much we might get back for losing top prospects—if we must lose Mejia or FMart, to me, 1.5 or 2.5 years (Oswalt has that 2 mil buyout for 2012–we really would only be committing about 25 mil for Roy; another 14 mil for 2012 ONLY if he is healthy and good) of Roy Harvey (even with the injury risk) is preferable to 1/2 year of Cliffy.
CaseStreet
6/23/2010-1:51pm at 1:51 pm (UTC -4)
I have no problem trading Mejia. I don’t see how the Mets can make a competitive offer for Lee without him. We’d still have plenty of other SP prospects for the future.
I agree that they should not try to extend Lee but rather get the two draft picks. No need for another big contract
No thanks to Oswalt who has a big mutli-year contract and is as much an injury concern as Lackey (who many didn’t want to sign because of that injury concern). No thanks to the NTC and the option on his contract.
Trade Mejia, Thole and a B prospect for Lee as a rental. Let him go after the season and get two draft picks.
No need to sign another big FA SP. Rotation next year will be Johan-Pelf-Niese-Ollie or Maine-whatever sticks. Pelf and Niese should be more established to be top of the rotation starters. And then if we need to we can look for a mid-season trade.
whataputz
6/23/2010-1:57pm at 1:57 pm (UTC -4)
exaclt Case. You gotta go for it. If not now, then when? Cliff Lee is the goods. He’s a top 10 pitcher hands down. He’s succeeded in the NL east and has taken an NL East team to a WS where he performed greatly. We have some young arms, and some minor league talent. You gotta trade talent to get talent. Who knows what Mejia will be. IMO he is a future closer, but who knows. Cliff Lee takes this team to the next level. Rental or not, lee for a deal centering around Mejia needs to get done.
Kingman 26
6/23/2010-2:10pm at 2:10 pm (UTC -4)
Nope.
Let’s go for it every year for the next half-decade, not just this year.
You don’t trade a guy with Mejia’s age, movement, poise, and incredibly great attitude when the guy is as young as he is, and has thrown a TOTAL of 72 INNINGS above A ball!
Ike, Niese, and Mejia must be untouchables.
And they will be.
CaseStreet
6/23/2010-2:32pm at 2:32 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t know king, from what i can gather (he he) the Mets aren’t interested in Roy Harvey Oswalt because of his contract, but they are interested in Lee as a rental.
Also, though they might have said Mejia is untouchable, I really wonder why they decided to have him start in the minors now. Why now if not to showcase Mejia as a starter? Manuel was very adamant about keeping Mejia in the BP because they NEEDED him, now all of a sudden they don’t need him despite the pen being a bit shaky. IMO, if they valued Mejia so much in the pen they would’ve dropped one of the other guys not Mejia. I just don’t see any other reason to send Mejia to AA other than to showcase him for a possible trade.
Kingman 26
6/23/2010-3:03pm at 3:03 pm (UTC -4)
Well, first off, I have ALWAYS been a fan of your gathering style, as you know.
With that out of the way, I thought the same thing at first about Mejia–sending him down to showcase him.
Then I thought more about it, and while it certainly seems true that Jerry wanted Mejia in the pen because he did not trust anyone other than KRod and Pedro, it seems as though perhaps Parnell’s performance of late, combined with Mejia’s less than overpowering overall performance, may have convinced the powers to finally send Mejia down and figure Parnell can pitch the 7th just as well for now.
Taka and Dickman have been fantastic, but we cannot necessarily count on that forever, and hopefully Parnell can get the job done while Mejia readies himself for the 2011 rotation. In Queens. As a Met.
I hope that makes sense.
GravediggerHebner
6/23/2010-3:54pm at 3:54 pm (UTC -4)
Case I believe there is one other reason. It doesn’t stand alone but it works IMO in concert with the reasons of Mejia not grabbing a key major league bullpen role when he had the opportunities and Parnell’s improvement. It is:
Some pundits suggest that an appropriate innings total progression from year to year is 30 innings. In 2008 Mejia threw 72 innings; in 2009 he threw 95. Those are just minor league totals, they do not include AZ fall league & winter ball which he has also taken part in.
If Mejia starts every 5th game for Binghamton from tonight through the end of their season he will make 15 starts for them. If he averages say 5 1/3 IP per start that would be 80 innings on top of the 27 he’s thrown for the Mets, or 107, and would leave him some wiggle room either for him to average more than 5 1/3 IP/start or a minor league post season at Bingo or Buffalo, or a Mets September call up, or AZ fall league, or winter ball, or some combination of those things.
So if 30 IP is an accepted progression (I’m not sure it is but have read it’s reasonable from some sources) then transitioning Mejia to starter at roughly this time works out well.
njstuckintx
6/23/2010-2:48pm at 2:48 pm (UTC -4)
That rotation for next year is not all that impressive, unless you plan on signing a bigger name or having Mejia step in there. Oh, wait… he’s in Seattle.
This why I am against the rental of Lee. To let Mejia go and still have to find proper replacements = Yuk.
Kingman 26
6/23/2010-2:57pm at 2:57 pm (UTC -4)
To paraphrase what Andy Stone said to Ace Rothstein regarding whether Nicky Santoro would be sent out of Las Vegas by the bosses:
“I would forget about the maneuver–they ain’t sending Mejia nowhere!”
CaseStreet
6/23/2010-3:09pm at 3:09 pm (UTC -4)
No, I expect Pelf to establish himself as the #2 and Niese as a legit #3. Therefore, no need for a big name guy next year when we have our own big guys. This year, they are not there yet.
I highly doubt Mejia will be in the rotation next year. Look at Pelf and Niese, it took them a few years before they were established in the rotation. Niese may be in “competition” for a spot and get a little taste, but I don’t think a spot would be “his”.
CaseStreet
6/23/2010-2:24pm at 2:24 pm (UTC -4)
Aside the Lee vs. Oswalt argument, I think we can all agree that one of the two is needed if we want to compete in the playoffs. Let’s see how the rotation would compare to the potential NL playoff teams:
NY – Santana, Lee/Oswalt, Pelf, Niese
PHI – Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Moyer
ATL – Lowe, Hanson, Hudson, Kawakami
STL – Carpenter, Wainwright, Garcia, Suppan
CIN – Harang, Leake, Cueto, Arroyo
SD – Garland, Correia, Richard, Latos
SF – Lincecum, Zito, Cain, Sanchez
LA – Kershaw, Kuroda, Billingsley, Ely
CO – Jimenez, Francis, Cook, Hammel
Other than STL and SF, I really don’t see another team that could match up to the Mets rotation, though CIN, LA, and SD have pretty good pitching, too.
Kingman 26
6/23/2010-2:26pm at 2:26 pm (UTC -4)
One of those boys sure would make our rotation look awful good.
And Niese kicks Suppan’s sorry rump as a 4th starter. Even if Soupcan does wear a 2006 WS ring the stinkin’ jerk.
And I love how you used Lee Oswalt.
CaseStreet
6/23/2010-3:09pm at 3:09 pm (UTC -4)
As long as you’re happy.