Is Johan Santana clearly diminished from the ace he was from 2003-2008? Almost definitely.
Is this cause for serious concern regarding this team’s ability to continue winning? Almost definitely not.
No matter how “optimistic†a Met fan is, to educated realists, Johan simply is no longer going to be the pitcher who was among the game’s very best from 2003-2008.
As pointed out by several in recent comment threads, Johan’s velocity, command, and runs allowed over the last few weeks have clearly shown a pitcher diminished by multiple surgeries.
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Santana keeps himself in shape, and remains a fiery leader who obviously wants to win. He still can hit 90 and throw 88-89 with consistency, and there is every reason to feel that he will do what is necessary (even if this means working hard on a new pitch or overhauling his overall repertoire) to remake himself into a still-effective pitcher despite the clearly diminished velocity.
Regardless, despite the potential trouble his massive contract may cause with payroll over the next few years, the on-field team results during Johan’s down period have still been exceptionally encouraging.
During this period Johan has been, in terms of effectiveness and results, the team’s fourth best pitcher. Pelfrey, Niese, and Dickey have all been better than Johan over the last 4-6 weeks. Can we count on this continuing over the course of the entire year? Frankly, very possibly.
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Pelfrey has shown not only the ability to be dominant, but to work his way through games when his best stuff is absent, and still keep the score low and the team in the game.
Niese’s curve is becoming more dominant each time out, and his poise and consistency combined with his youth must be encouraging to even the most negative fan.
Dickey seems to be the lost—and maybe the best—Niekro brother. The late-comer to the knuckleball, who appears to have mastered it, can be doubted less with each successive fine outing.
Overall this gives us a top four which almost any team would envy. Incredible diversity, guys who have been going 6 or 7 almost every time out, and a wily veteran in Johan, who, even if he does not regain his past dominance, certainly will make a fine mid-rotation starter.
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So where does this leave us? With a really good team, being led by its stars, receiving surprising contributions from young homegrown players all over the place, and getting great performances from unexpected places in Dickey and Dessens. If Tejada and the seemingly matured Parnell are for real, the timetable for winning simply continues to accelerate.
And it must again be said that this is all being presided over by a manager who has been guiding the team to consistently excellent efforts (and wins) for an impressively long time now.
Jerry won Manager of the Year in Chicago, and if the Mets make the playoffs this year, this writer will again admit how wrong he was to think he knows better than a successful MLB skipper, and will be the first to hail Jerry as he adds a second Manager of the Year trophy to his case. No matter how hard it may be for us armchair experts to accept, the 2010 Mets are—thus far—a wonderful example of how a manager’s day-to-day leadership and the tone he sets can in fact be infinitely more important over a 162-game season than nitpicking over a bunt here or a questionable bullpen move there.
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The Johan contract further underlines the questionable nature of the 6-year deal for an older pitcher. This surely points out the validity of the idea of preferring Oswalt over Lee, as Oswalt is under contract for the next two years, and the preference of Lee as a rental (without giving up Ike, Niese, or both Mejia and FMart) over the idea of signing Lee for 5-6 years.
This team simply keeps on rolling. Since the jettisoning of the Bogus Brigade of Ollie, Maine, Matthews, and Jacobs, the on-field play, the hustle, the camaraderie, the comebacks, the bouncing right back after tough losses—every week it all seems less transient and more real.
It says here that Johan is going to be a valuable member of this team. He’s just no longer an ace. Which is fine, as we have had three other pitchers throwing like near-aces for quite a while now.
The overall picture still projects a team seriously on the rise much quicker than could have been reasonably expected. Let’s support Johan and not overstate the impact of his decline. After all, winning as a team is what matters. As long as this team continues to play great ball and gel as a unit, it can overcome the decline of the previously great Johan Santana.
54 comments
johan4cy
6/27/2010-5:57pm at 5:57 pm (UTC -4)
Big Pelf is the ace, period.
Kingman 26
6/27/2010-5:59pm at 5:59 pm (UTC -4)
Time for a name change?
njstuckintx
6/27/2010-6:05pm at 6:05 pm (UTC -4)
Unless his name is actually Johan Foresigh.
johan4cy
6/27/2010-8:07pm at 8:07 pm (UTC -4)
I like it…
njstuckintx
6/27/2010-6:04pm at 6:04 pm (UTC -4)
I still get the feeling that Dickey to the Mets Rotation is like playing with house money.
And I think the gradual regression that Santana is beginning to go through (a will until the end of his career) shows that there is most assuredly a need for a top of the rotation pitcher. Be it Lee, be it Oswalt, be it Haren, or be it one that has yet to be mentioned yet, there is definitely a need. Pelf is officially Big Pelf and Niese has done more than we could expect. Santana has regressed some, but I’m still glad he’s in that rotation. Dickey and Taka… Well, between the 2 of them splitting the 5th starters spot (Dickey the majority and Taka as the spot starter or take the 5th spot should the wheels come of the Dickey Low Rider), that should round out a quite nice rotation.
oleosmirf
6/27/2010-7:31pm at 7:31 pm (UTC -4)
agreed. While its great that he has been pitching well, the chances of him keeping this up all season are much lower than the chances of him flaming out…
DNDJohan aka kistics
6/27/2010-6:10pm at 6:10 pm (UTC -4)
I disagree on Johan’s contract. At the time of signing (’08), he was 28-29 year old being the best pitcher in the league. Nobody I mean nobody disputed his contract at that time. Hindsight is 20/20.
Kingman 26
6/27/2010-6:14pm at 6:14 pm (UTC -4)
Some always dispute the wisdom of 5- or 6-year deals for pitchers.
Think the Yanks are liking Burnett’s deal right now?
Not saying I questioned the Johan deal at the time, but the situation definitely makes me realize that it is wise to vehemently oppose a similar deal for Cliff Lee—or pretty much any pitcher.
stickguy
6/27/2010-10:42pm at 10:42 pm (UTC -4)
well, I am sure that you are wrong about the nobody. And I was not the only one.
Not that I said don’t do it, but pointed out the very real danger of giving that huge of a deal to a pitcher of that age. There was a pretty good chance that it would come back and bite them.
Mr North Jersey
6/27/2010-6:40pm at 6:40 pm (UTC -4)
I started to write a long comment about your post Kingman but decided that it would be pointless.
Nothing will come of it but just me repeating myself so in the interest of sparing everyone from the same old points that have been made time and time again regarding this topic I will spare you and everyone else from having to read it.
njstuckintx
6/27/2010-6:42pm at 6:42 pm (UTC -4)
but now you’ve piqued our interest.
Mr North Jersey
6/27/2010-6:44pm at 6:44 pm (UTC -4)
trust me its all been said b4
njstuckintx
6/27/2010-6:47pm at 6:47 pm (UTC -4)
Well, if it is of any consolation… Valentine is still available.
Mr North Jersey
6/27/2010-6:51pm at 6:51 pm (UTC -4)
Should we make that a breaking story?
Nah, let’s leave that for Cerrone he loves posting Valentine Updates.
dirtysanchez
6/27/2010-6:59pm at 6:59 pm (UTC -4)
I dont think theres anything to worry about with Santana. He will find a way to get back on top…he wouldnt be considered one of the best pitchers in baseball for this long if he didnt. While his recent stretch is worrysome, lets not forget his first couple of starts that he was very dominant and he got 0 run support. Im not ready to say santana is less of an ace because of a few starts. I dont expect people to agree with me but Johan is still an ace. Johan has been an ace for years now, pelf is just having a good year. I will have to wait until next year to declare pelf a true ace…and a career to say he is an ace over Johan.
Kingman 26
6/27/2010-7:08pm at 7:08 pm (UTC -4)
You don’t “find a way to get back on top” when you used to be on top largely due to having a mid-90s fastball which made everything else you threw that much more effective.
wannybackstra
6/27/2010-7:23pm at 7:23 pm (UTC -4)
If I understand this post correctly the point is that the Mets don’t need to Santana to be at his best to win.
I can’t disagree with this more. There’s a lot of season left and the other pitchers will struggle — if not have the wheels come right off (I’m looking at you Dickey, Taka and Niese) — at times during the season and it will be Santana’s responsibility to reclaim his place atop the rotation. These guys, including Pelfrey, do not have one strong, consistent full season under their belts combined. There’s no reason to suspect they will now.
Even if Pelfrey continues to pitch like an ace, I don’t see any reason to expect Dickey, Niese and Taka to last throughout the season. One is a 35 year old journeyman, another is a 35 year old who was just a better than average pitcher in weaker hitting league and the last is a young kid who never dominated in the minors. Opponents will have plenty of film to watch soon enough and we’ll have to see what these guys are made of.
oleosmirf
6/27/2010-7:40pm at 7:40 pm (UTC -4)
i agree and while it is plausible that all 5 current starters continue to pitch well, the chances of that happening (for the reasons you mentioned) are very slim.
this is why it is imperative that they go out and get a top SP. If Niese and Dickey stay hot, great but if not we still have an ace like Lee/Oswalt, Santana (who will get better) and Pelf that can match almost any team in baseball…
fongy2
6/27/2010-7:43pm at 7:43 pm (UTC -4)
Agree completely Wanny!
This also affirms my long time
arguments that you don’t give
anyone seven year deals!….
Especially Pitchers!
GravediggerHebner
6/27/2010-8:11pm at 8:11 pm (UTC -4)
The only thing I would disagree with you about here Wanny is the concept of other teams having enough film to watch on R.A. Dickey. Maybe I feel that way due to the paucity of knuckle ball pitchers throughout history as compared to “other” pitchers but I believe that no amount of film study will help opponents learn how to hit an unpredictable pitch. We largely know where a 4 seam or 2 seam fastball, or curveball, or slider, or splitter, and so on will go but I believe for opponents to beat the knuckle ball pitcher the pitcher himself will have to be having a poor day throwing it.
I am not confident in that position, certainly could be wrong, but that’s my thought on it. The best way I can put it is it was hard to predict what Tatis would be when he came to the Mets do to his unique circumstance, and I feel similarly about Dickey.
By any measure I don’t think Santana will remain the Mets “4th best pitcher” but I fear that this will bear out more because as you aptly stated the other guys regress than because Santana improves.
rustyjr
6/27/2010-8:19pm at 8:19 pm (UTC -4)
Whole heartedly agree – the book on knucklers is either their on or their not & dickey throws a hard knuckler which is even harder to hit
metsfan4decades
6/27/2010-8:32pm at 8:32 pm (UTC -4)
Agree on the Dickey analysis. Coupled with a decent 85MPH fb, he also has the ability to change speeds on that knuckleball. I think he’s been throwing long enough now to just have the experience needed for some continued success at the ML level with it.
ceetar
6/27/2010-11:22pm at 11:22 pm (UTC -4)
Actually, the tape on Dickey you would watch is to try to pick up when he likes to throw his fastball. He throws more than Wakefield, so you can usually count on seeing it. If you can figure out when he’s going to throw it..
rustyjr
6/27/2010-8:11pm at 8:11 pm (UTC -4)
So I guess u disagreed with my column kong ?
johan4cy
6/27/2010-8:18pm at 8:18 pm (UTC -4)
I agree. I think that Pelfrey is developing into an ace and Dicky/Taka/Neise are just as good or better than Westbrook/Lily/Carmona type guys. Also, it’s not like Santana is a bad pitcher, he’s still a low end #1 guy. Things are looking good!
johan4cy
6/27/2010-8:27pm at 8:27 pm (UTC -4)
Just saying, Cliff Lee has a 19:1 K/BB ratio. :0
metsfan4decades
6/27/2010-8:39pm at 8:39 pm (UTC -4)
No matter if Johan has started the downside of his career – or if his second half brings the pitcher we a know and love…..and no matter if Dickey/Niese/Pelf/Taka have continued success, we’re one more injury away from a disaster. We have no SP left. We got lucky with Maine/Ollie’s replacement but I don’t think we’ve got anything left down there that will step up to the plate should one go down in that starting rotation.
We need another SP by the trade deadline. I’d love to have Lee, but only for the 1/2 year rental and only if we’re not giving up top prospects. I know it might be wishful thinking but if Omar can get that done….
And if we get Lee, then let him walk end of the year. I don’t think it’s smart to give him 5 years at whatever his price will be. The Yankees can have him when we’re done with him – LOL.
But whoever, we need another SP….
metsfan4decades
6/27/2010-8:42pm at 8:42 pm (UTC -4)
Oh, and a couple of telling things with Omar’s last interview on this subject. He said they’re always looking to improve (standard blah, blah, blah). Said they’ll be looking at pitching and if they can improve, they will. Also said though if a look at what’s available is not better than what we already have then……
Coupled with his statement that he expects to see both Maine and Ollie back in a Met uniform this year, I’d translate that into them maybe rolling the dice with Maine and Ollie being the depth and/or helping out in Sept with expanded roster. Now that is just scary.
rustyjr
6/27/2010-8:48pm at 8:48 pm (UTC -4)
I’ll be content if M.O are called up in September – but on ly if they don’t pitch in meaningful games !
oleosmirf
6/27/2010-8:56pm at 8:56 pm (UTC -4)
if we clinch the division. I have no problem if they come in long relief of one of our capable starters.
oleosmirf
6/27/2010-8:45pm at 8:45 pm (UTC -4)
btw Pagan will not start tomorrow.
GravediggerHebner
6/27/2010-8:51pm at 8:51 pm (UTC -4)
I saw that. If that remains true it will then be 5 games he hasn’t played so the Mets are doing that whole 2009 thing where they played with a short roster. Yes I know Thole is here but still they have a guy that they can’t use on the roster and that bothers me a lot more than bunting in the 1st inning or batting Catalanotto 4th.
oleosmirf
6/27/2010-8:55pm at 8:55 pm (UTC -4)
well what would you like them to do, call up F-Mart for a few days until Pagan is back
GravediggerHebner
6/27/2010-9:13pm at 9:13 pm (UTC -4)
I truly don’t care what they do with the spot on the roster that’s not my point, my point is only that they are trying to win games with 24 players against teams that have 25 players. So far they’ve been successful so my complaint falls on deaf ears in much the same way complaints about Jerry’s managing fall on deaf ears as the team goes 11 games over .500 1/2 a game out of 1st place.
Somewhat related, Valdes started yesterday for Buffalo. 4 IP, 60 pitches, no decision. 4 hits 1 run 1 walk 7 strikeouts.
oleosmirf
6/27/2010-9:18pm at 9:18 pm (UTC -4)
i understand but unless they place Pagan on the DL there is no roster spot. obviously one or both of Blanco and Bajaras are still banged up and a 3rd catcher is needed.
when the need for the 3rd catcher is gone, they will call up a pitcher to replace him…
GravediggerHebner
6/27/2010-9:31pm at 9:31 pm (UTC -4)
Oleo I apologize I thought I stated something that now that I re-read I didn’t state it.
That is I think Pagan should be put on the DL, I didn’t make that clear. That’s where the roster spot I’m speaking of should be coming from. If he misses Monday that will be 5 in a row and I think if you’re hurt enough that you can’t contribute in any way for 5 games you should go on the DL for 15 (unless you’re a starting pitcher then no one misses you for 5 days anyway).
oleosmirf
6/27/2010-9:38pm at 9:38 pm (UTC -4)
well what if Pagan can comeback and play on wednesday…then you force Pagan to miss more time than you need just for the sake of depth…which considering the lack of AB for Tatis and Carter…we really dont need.
i guarantee that if Feliciano got hurt too, F-Mart would be called up the next day…
GravediggerHebner
6/27/2010-9:50pm at 9:50 pm (UTC -4)
You make fair points.
Ultimately the 2009 season and the way it unfolded with injuries just completely soured me on the whole “wait and see” approach to injuries, and in the interest of the 2010 motto of “Prevention and Recovery” I would prefer he go on the DL even if it could be fairly described as over-cautious.
oleosmirf
6/27/2010-10:15pm at 10:15 pm (UTC -4)
your reasoning is only based on the idea that we are playing shorthanded.
id rather have Pagan for the days he’d be forced to miss on the DL than have a 25th man in the rare case of an extra inning game.
GravediggerHebner
6/27/2010-11:20pm at 11:20 pm (UTC -4)
No. I’m not articulating it clearly but no that’s not all my reasoning is based on.
If we were talking about a superstar player I would agree with the concept of not wanting said player to miss any time unnecessarily.
But we’re not. We’re talking about Angel Pagan, who while he is in the midst of a career year is hardly a star let alone a super star, what he is is a 29 year old career 4th OF who has never played more than 88 games before.
The reasons I am willing to ship him off in trade packages for starting pitchers are the same reasons I would prefer he go on the DL. He’s not truly integral, and if he is to be considered even remotely integral it’s more because Carlos Beltran ISN’T here than it is because Pagan IS here.
Mr North Jersey
6/27/2010-9:28pm at 9:28 pm (UTC -4)
I hear ya Grave. It’s like you know that deep down playing a man short can hurt you but because it is not hurting the team no one seems to care.
Yet because the team is playing well it has to be because of management or when they are not hitting it has to be because of the hitting coach.
Mr North Jersey
6/27/2010-9:33pm at 9:33 pm (UTC -4)
October can’t get here soon enough.
Kingman 26
6/27/2010-9:56pm at 9:56 pm (UTC -4)
Or maybe we can carefully evaluate what we see and make informed decisions based on that?
Nah.
Mr North Jersey
6/27/2010-10:02pm at 10:02 pm (UTC -4)
Exactly what I am going to do you hit the nail on the head.
I am going to wait and watch how the season plays out and then make an informed decision.
I am glad you understand.
stickguy
6/27/2010-10:57pm at 10:57 pm (UTC -4)
well, they aren’t playing short in the way you usually think of it. The bench is at normal 5 man strength, even with Pagan unavailable.
As long as they don’t need that 7th man in the pen, you won’t really miss that 25th guy!
Mr North Jersey
6/27/2010-8:59pm at 8:59 pm (UTC -4)
All I ask for is some honesty from my Mets. Is that too much too ask?
I mean if your not sure if your going to play then why not say that.
Say something like we have to wait and see how Pagan feels when he gets up or something but don’t announce he is expected to start when he is not feeling well yet.
Geez…
oleosmirf
6/27/2010-9:04pm at 9:04 pm (UTC -4)
who cares what they said…someone asked is Pagan going to play and said yes, but after that he felt pain so they had to scratch him…
it happens
Mr North Jersey
6/27/2010-9:17pm at 9:17 pm (UTC -4)
Your right, Damn you.
Kingman 26
6/27/2010-10:00pm at 10:00 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks Oleo for the wise comment.
It is beyond belief how many people continue to work their hardest to find trivial nonsense to bitch about when the team has been doing just about everything right for so long now.
Of course, if Pagan DID play and aggravate the injury, the Henpecking Chorus of Complainers would be out whining in full force.
Isn’t continuing to win showing that the team is doing things right?
Mr North Jersey
6/27/2010-10:04pm at 10:04 pm (UTC -4)
??? I know that was not directed at me.
metsfan4decades
6/27/2010-9:17pm at 9:17 pm (UTC -4)
Has it been reported anywhere just what his problem is? Or is it just phantom muscle spasms? I don’t recall seeing results of Xrays or anything of that nature….
Call me leery b/c of 2009 but this is how Reyes started out last year. Day to day, then finally after about 9 days, a 15 day DL, never to be seen again until this year. He might have tried to come back one or two days in there somewhere but it was the same report at first – just needed a couple of days rest on that leg….
Mr North Jersey
6/27/2010-9:32pm at 9:32 pm (UTC -4)
2009? Nooooooo……
ceetar
6/27/2010-11:25pm at 11:25 pm (UTC -4)
who knows if he’ll play tomorrow (doesn’t matter what Manuel says today (or really ever)).
stickguy
6/27/2010-11:12pm at 11:12 pm (UTC -4)
well, after reading this long post, and the comments, I can’t even remember exactly what Knogs points were. So, I will just make some random comments that probably have nothing to do with the thread. Pretty much SOP.
I know that I differ on Jerry. being better at strategic moves will still be a nice thing. But for now, he is not a huge problem.
I also agree with MF, that they really need some more SP depth to fall back on. And for the rotation, I expect pelf, neise and Dickey to stay solid. Not perfect, but i don’t think that they are going to get “figured out” or have the wheels come off. Taka though, he is the one that worries me. Plus, he looked great coming out of the pen, so if a better SP shows up, a win win!
Johan? Prattled on about him before. Not sure exactly what to think. I don’t expect him to get back (on any regualr basis) to being a stud ace. But, hopefully he gets back to being very good? Ultimately though, over the next couple of years, I think he needs to morph himself into more of a glorified petite/glavine type.
And, no more huge $ deals to mid-30s pitchers. And for sure, no 5 year deal to lee!