Dear God, sorry to disturb you but...
So all winter long it was pointed out to me what an awful defensive LF Jason Bay was. The discussion of his defensive prowess, or lack thereof, became so widespread that it led to a recalculation of UZR data that resulted in Bay’s UZR rating going from a negative number to a positive number.
This season, much discussion (well here anyway) has been about how much better Bay looks to us than his UZR seemed to suggest he would. Using my disdained-in-many-quarters “eye” I see a decent LF out there and I cringe at how convinced I was 6 months ago that he was going to be batten-down-the-hatches horrible.
Today I finally decided to visit Fangraphs and see in black and white the validation that Bay is actually a decent left fielder. Let us say that the word surprised would not be strong enough to describe my reaction to what I found. Currently Bay’s defense is rated at negative 4.0, 13th of 17 qualifying LF. God, please help me understand this.
27 comments
ceetar
6/28/2010-12:21pm at 12:21 pm (UTC -4)
UZR is one of the most inaccurate stats of the ‘new stats’.
I’m still working on me “please, this doesn’t make sense to me, explain advanced stats in this instance.” posts. I’ve got a lot of it .
UZR is highly dependant on other fielders too, and highly inaccurate in small samples. Say Victorino were to play LF instead of Ibanez. Every other LF in the game would suddenly get worse because Victorino is fast and gets to more balls.
Also, the better a CF is the worse a LF will be. (if the CF covers more ground, he makes a higher % of the catches in the overlapping zones, which means the LF makes a smaller % of catches in those zones than a LF with a crappier CF. UZR, I don’t believe anyway, doesn’t factor in what happens in those catches that he doesn’t make)
A question I asked on twitter, rhetorically mostly, earlier in the season. “How does Ike Davis’ over the rail catches affect UZR? Does it make every other 1B worse because he’s now added a zone? is that even a zone? does it count as the same zone (most likely) as standing in foul ground next to the dugout? “
stickguy
6/28/2010-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
this one I would never try and get to the bottom of. To me, the idiot’s version always seemed to be that it was mostly a measure of range. Someone decided what balls a guy should get to, then counted to see how many he actually got.
But with Bay, he has pretty much been what I thought he would be. A solid, professinal, OF that would position well, get to everything (and catch it) that he could reasonably get to, and know what to do with the ball after that. IOW, he would be a very good LF.
What he might not be is the rangiest guy, but even that doesn’t look too bad.
Now, does UZR favor a train wreck that can run down mistakes (even if he then let guys take extra bases on him?) I don’t know.
The other thing I don’t like is that it is relative. Like Ceetar said, it depnds on the competition. At least OPS+ is a set scale. UZR makes no sense when a guy can have identical seasons back to back, and in theory, go from way plus to way negative.
anyway, this seems like the one stat where I would likely trust an experienced BB person’s eyes just as much if not more. Pretty sure the coaching staff knows who plays the field well.
Kingman 26
6/28/2010-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
First off, Ceetar makes great points.
Hey Grave, at least one guy was telling anyone who would listen that Bay was at least a decent outfielder!
I argued with so many people over the winter about this. Bay has now gone almost two years without an error, and played 199 games in LF in Fenway and had 20 assists and one error. That’s just not a bad outfielder, no many how many UZR geeks and lazy as hell reporters disagree.
UZR is (as Jeff Francoeur and Raul Ibanez said about some newfangled stats developed by non-player nerds) a ridiculously imperfect stat created by silly people who think a computer can accurately describe anything. It cannot, and Bay’s UZR is a classic example.
Just like the idea that Zambrano’s BABIP somehow means that everyone is getting hits by dribbling grounders between infielders and hitting bloops to the outfield—nonsense; it is because people hit line drives, which are more likely to become hits.
Sure, the new stats are valuable, but only when combined with good sense and other stats like errors/assists, WHIP/ERA/Kper9, etc.
saltygary
6/28/2010-12:35pm at 12:35 pm (UTC -4)
Statistics are great and are the backbone to this sport, but sometimes you just need to see the guy catch/hit the ball. This is why scouts will never be removed from the game.
And Heb you scare me sometimes with your headlines, how the hell to you pull a Judy Blume reference.
darknova306
6/28/2010-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
It all goes to show, Grave, that defense is really hard to quantify. Each attempt to quantify it has its value, but none are absolutely definitive. What I’ve seen this year has been a left fielder that is slightly faster than he looks, will catch nearly every ball he can get to, and will make the occasional great catch.
I don’t remember, but does UZR normalize for the ballpark? Citi Field is so spacious in the outfield that there would be lots of balls hit to LF that no LF could ever get to given how much ground there is to cover.
DNDJohan aka kistics
6/28/2010-12:45pm at 12:45 pm (UTC -4)
It does normalize for the ballparks I believe. That’s why Bay’s ’09 UZR was changed earlier this year from negative a lot to positive.
darknova306
6/28/2010-1:03pm at 1:03 pm (UTC -4)
Ah, that’s right. Thanks.
Kingman 26
6/28/2010-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
Oh, and there IS no understanding this.
You, Grave, actually watch games and are introspective and wise, which is why this makes no sense.
GravediggerHebner
6/28/2010-1:01pm at 1:01 pm (UTC -4)
Unfortunately it has occurred to me that I may need a little Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind for it to all make sense.
“Is there any risk of brain damage?”
“Well, technically speaking, the operation is brain damage, but it is on par with a night of drinking. Nothing you’ll miss.”
njstuckintx
6/28/2010-1:10pm at 1:10 pm (UTC -4)
That was one messed up movie… I though Jim Carey was great in it, but having the aura of Dumb & Dumber hovering around you didn’t help him much on it.
Kingman 26
6/28/2010-1:33pm at 1:33 pm (UTC -4)
HAHA! LOVE Charlie Kaufman movies….
metsfan4decades
6/28/2010-1:13pm at 1:13 pm (UTC -4)
I honestly can’t help anyone understand this as I’m probably more behind the curve than most as it pertains to UZR. Never a fan, therefore I don’t delve too deeply in even trying to decipher it. It would be more of a chore than anything else. Also, I’m not a fan of Fangraphs site overall so I tend to avoid it most times.
But when someone else figures it out, I wish they’d post it….
I can tell you what I’ve seen with the naked eye after watching most all games this season. Bay is faster than I thought, hasn’t made an error, gets to more balls than I believed he would have and has his head in the game. Also, if I’m not mistaken, he’s #4 on the list for OF assists for the past 5 years.
Mr North Jersey
6/28/2010-1:13pm at 1:13 pm (UTC -4)
I just saw the Gorrilaz Music Video and all I can say is the animation keeps setting the bar higher and higher. When is Gorrilaz going to do a movie? They are just amazin.
njstuckintx
6/28/2010-1:19pm at 1:19 pm (UTC -4)
I know the guy who does the animation/drawings is the guy that did Tank Girl. Might pique your interest.
Mr North Jersey
6/28/2010-1:41pm at 1:41 pm (UTC -4)
Is it? Cool!!!
GravediggerHebner
6/28/2010-1:20pm at 1:20 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah I have subscribed to their YouTube channel for a while now. Very visually interesting stuff updated often.
oleosmirf
6/28/2010-1:15pm at 1:15 pm (UTC -4)
defense relies on so many immeasurable factors that it cannot be truly measured by any statistical measure.
Ex: what stat shows if an OF knows to hit the cutoff man.
Ex: what stat shows how 3rd base coaches are afraid to send guys home with a guy like Francouer in RF
Ex: what stat shows an infielder’s awareness of whether he can the lead runner out, or should he play it safe?
Kingman 26
6/28/2010-1:34pm at 1:34 pm (UTC -4)
Really excellent points.
ceetar
6/28/2010-1:44pm at 1:44 pm (UTC -4)
Well, to some extent, you can measure that. You can measure how often a fielder throws to the cutoff versus letting it fly (and you have to factor in how many times it’s cutoff mid-flight)
You can measure how often a runner scores from second on a hit to RF against the Mets versus against other teams. The problem is this is also extremely inaccurate because it depends how fast the runner is, how far along he is between second-third, what kind of jump he had, what kind of read he got on the ball if it was definitely falling in or not, did he disagree with the third base coach and run through the sign, what’s the score of the game, what inning, what pitcher, who’s behind home plate..
also, so many of these stats are based on data mined through observation (such as where a ball was fielded for UZR, or if it’s a ‘hard hit ball’)
DNDJohan aka kistics
6/28/2010-1:55pm at 1:55 pm (UTC -4)
I’m with you Grave.
Just with my untrained naked eye, I can clearly see that Bay is a better defensive LF than Soriano, Milledge, Willingham, Rivera…
oleosmirf
6/28/2010-3:03pm at 3:03 pm (UTC -4)
from a stats perspective these are the stats that really concern me as a mets fan.
1) The Mets have won 77% of the games Niese, Pelf and Dickey have started. That is almost impossible to keep up.
2) 2.86 runs scored per game when Johan Santana is on the mound combined with his last 4 starts is really troubling.
3) David Wright’s BA late and close is .146 and his BA with 2 strikes is .207. His BA innings 1-6 is .342 and his BA innings 7+ is .205. Why the stark differences?
4) Jason Bay being on pace for 8 HR and 68 RBI, with a BA of .391 in innings 1-2 and .238 thereafter. What is wrong here?
stickguy
6/28/2010-3:57pm at 3:57 pm (UTC -4)
guys cool off, other guys get hot. Bay sucks and Wright chokes.
Glad I could clear it up for you!
oleosmirf
6/28/2010-4:47pm at 4:47 pm (UTC -4)
that is much more than just a hot/cold streak…
stickguy
6/28/2010-5:01pm at 5:01 pm (UTC -4)
then they are better than you think.
a wise man once said, you are what your record says you are.
oleosmirf
6/28/2010-5:09pm at 5:09 pm (UTC -4)
Wright is batting almost 200 points lower in these situations…besides the game against Detroit, i cant remember a time when we actually needed a late game hit.
sooner or later, it will become an issue and what then?
and when it comes to our SP, it would really be a shame if they went back to their career numbers in september when it’s too late to do anything about it…
I just hope Omar doesnt get blinded by our current record and sees the big picture…
stickguy
6/28/2010-5:31pm at 5:31 pm (UTC -4)
I suspect Omar is well aware of the need for another horse in the rotation. The lack of a safety net is pretty obvious. Now, whether he thinks Ollie (and much less likely) maine will serve as that, who knows!
other than that, not worried about the top 4 in the rotation (in terms of falling off the map). could have ups and downs, but not crash and burn.
Wright? mental. Whether he decides to unmental, is the questin.
oleosmirf
6/28/2010-5:43pm at 5:43 pm (UTC -4)
the thing is though even if all 3 just decline slightly we are looking at an 7-8 extra losses here. The rate at which those 3 guys are winning blow away the other teams…
All three right now are pitching like aces and while it isnt impossible that it continues it is certainly unlikely