Video courtesy of ESPN
If you watch ESPN BBTN break down K-Rod they discuss his BAbip being so high and that he doesn’t trust his stuff. Well over the last 6 years there was 1 other time where KRod’s BAbip was higher than .300 in the 1st half. In 2007 KRod’s BAbip was .322 at the end of the 1st half. He had 2 Blown Saves and 24 Saves during that stretch and he finished the season with 6 Blown Saves and 40 Saves tied for 2nd in the A.L. for most Saves. Now in 2010 KRod’s BAbip is .333 and he has 4 Blown Saves and 20 Saves. If you compare the 1st halves of 2007 & 2010 there doesn’t seem to be much differences between them hopefully meaning that this is something KRod has dealt with before and hopefully he finishes his 2nd half with a strong finish leading the N.L. in Saves.
| 1st Half | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | SO/BB | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | BAbip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 29 | 116 | 8 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 45 | 3.75 | .164 | .242 | .276 | .518 | .235 |
| 2006 | 34 | 139 | 14 | 31 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 47 | 4.70 | .223 | .275 | .424 | .700 | .291 |
| 2007 | 37 | 140 | 10 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 53 | 3.31 | .214 | .291 | .300 | .591 | .322 |
| 2008 | 45 | 148 | 11 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 41 | 1.58 | .182 | .305 | .277 | .582 | .238 |
| 2009 | 41 | 155 | 14 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 42 | 1.68 | .181 | .294 | .265 | .559 | .227 |
| 2010 | 40 | 159 | 12 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 52 | 3.25 | .239 | .315 | .346 | .661 | .333 |
62 comments
trs86
7/8/2010-11:23am at 11:23 am (UTC -4)
Couldn’t BAbip just be a sign of plain ole bad luck instead of not “trusting” his stuff?
Of course we all know I am a Krod defender but I still say that there is not another closer in the NL I would want pitching for the Mets.
DNDJohan aka kistics
7/8/2010-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
I was down on KRod couple days ago when he gave the game away. But I looked at WHIP and would you have believed if I said that KRod’s WHIP is lower than Cordero, Bell, Capps, and Wilson?
There are better closers like Wagner, Broxton and Marmol. But Krod is still better than majority of closers in NL.
trs86
7/8/2010-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
What we also have to factor in is that is very difficult to close in NY. We don’t know if Broxton or Marmol could do that and we know that Wagner blew a crap load of saves there.
Krod is fine. Not sure why there always has to be the “What is wrong with Johan, what is wrong with Wright, what is wrong with Bay, what is wrong….” Just settle down, relax and let sample size take effect.
ceetar
7/8/2010-11:52am at 11:52 am (UTC -4)
look how Broxton did against the Yankees for instance. (and don’t give me “The Yankees are awesome” line. He basically blew that game against the AAA team) Yeah, I’m fine with Frankie.
njstuckintx
7/8/2010-11:54am at 11:54 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, I was going through the closers and I really only could come up with Bell or Marmol. I know Bell wouldn’t come back here, but I think if he was given the shot, he could handle the NY Spot light.
trs86
7/8/2010-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
I can’t see how Bell would do well in NY, especially for the Mets again. SD is MUCH different than NY.
DNDJohan aka kistics
7/8/2010-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
I think at this point, Broxton and Marmol are only closers I would take over Krod.
trs86
7/8/2010-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
And again, neither have pitched in the type of pressure that NY creates. I think it’s better the devil you know. One thing that no one seems to notice is how Krod has drastically cut down on his walks. Yes the hits are higher. Perhaps this is Krod adjusting.
ceetar
7/8/2010-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
pitching is a constant game of adjusting. He’s cutting down on the walks will make opposing hitters more aggressive, which means he can throw more balls and get them to swing at bad pitches more.
trs86
7/8/2010-12:07pm at 12:07 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, thus if he throws more balls then he will walk more hitters.
I just think he is pitching to contact a little more and trusting his stuff instead of the other way around.
ceetar
7/8/2010-12:14pm at 12:14 pm (UTC -4)
obviously, I just meant that you’re constantly fighting your scouting report. Take Cliff Lee. He doesn’t walk anyone. It’s 3-2 as a batter, are you swinging?
Obviously.
Now, it’s a big situation..3-2 count..Lee knows that the guy at the plate knows he doesn’t walk guys. It expands the hitters strike zone and he can throw a ball and still get a swing at it.
Actually, there has to be stats on this somewhere right? Swing rates against pitchers?
metsfan4decades
7/8/2010-12:10pm at 12:10 pm (UTC -4)
If you listen closely to Krod’s post game comments, particularly the last blown save, you get the impression that he’s not hurt, he knows what has to be done and he comments something along the lines that he needs to stop nibbling and throw his pitches for strikes.
So I do believe it’s a bit mental – as in he’s making some adjustments to maybe cut down on the walks – which has worked – but he’s not quite there yet.
I have no problem with KRod as our closer. I just hope he finds sooner rather than later, what will work well for him to limit the base runners he always seems to be putting on……
trs86
7/8/2010-12:14pm at 12:14 pm (UTC -4)
I am just not sure he has ever lost it. We watch a lot of games and yeah it appears there are a lot of baserunners to us but look at his WHIP. K/9 good, K/BB very good. He is just giving up more hits than normal instead of walks.
metsfan4decades
7/8/2010-12:35pm at 12:35 pm (UTC -4)
I’ve read where his velocity is down a bit over his earlier career. I wonder if he’s tinkering trying to get that back up a bit or tinkering to try and compensate?
trs86
7/8/2010-12:47pm at 12:47 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t think so. I don’t think he will ever get back up to what he was 5 years ago. I just think that he is adjusting to walking less batters.
youngvalerawest
7/8/2010-12:13pm at 12:13 pm (UTC -4)
KRod’s problems generally are caused by falling behind hitters. He gets hit when he’s forced to throw a meatball with a 2-0 count.
Numbers for relief pitchers are often tricky. Middle inning guys may have great ERAs but let in inherited runners. Late inning guys may have few blown saves but have blown all three of the 1 run saves and managed to save all of the 3 run games or the 4 run games where the tying run is on deck.
I’m not sure K-Rod’s numbers are an accurate reflection of how well he’s performed as a closer. He’s obviously pitched well enough to keep all of his rate numbers down. But it sure seems uneasy every time he takes the mound.
trs86
7/8/2010-12:18pm at 12:18 pm (UTC -4)
As the resident Krod defender, I disagree. His K’s are up, walks are down. He may be adjusting a little and getting too much of the plate. He has struggled once it gets to 2-0. Most pitchers do. However, that has only occurred 24 times in 178 PA.
youngvalerawest
7/8/2010-12:37pm at 12:37 pm (UTC -4)
When the batter is ahead of the count against Frankie, the batter has a .458 OBP.
When Frankie is ahead, the batter has a .203 OBP.
The problem is that there is roughly an even number of ahead/behind plate appearances during which the result is obtained.
The uncontrovertible fact is that Frankie pitches from behind too often. He’s behind as many hitters as he is in front of. Problem.
You can defend him all you want with K rates and walk rates. But they’re really not the point in this instance.
trs86
7/8/2010-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
Heath Bell when batters are ahead in the count: .444 OBP.
Broxton .515 OBP with batter ahead.
Bell also has a very close behind and ahead count in terms of AB’s.
youngvalerawest
7/8/2010-12:48pm at 12:48 pm (UTC -4)
That’s great.
But why are we talking about Heath Bell? Is he still on the Mets? Does the fact that he’s shakey make K0Rod less shakey?
Broxton, by the way, has twice as many plate appearances where the result is obtained while he is ahead. Twice as many. So your comparison is utterly meaningless.
trs86
7/8/2010-12:52pm at 12:52 pm (UTC -4)
You are right on Broxton’s PA. My point was to show that all pitchers struggle when down in the count. Broxton and Bell are relevant because they have been introduced in the discussion as guys that would be preferable to Krod.
Krod is no more shaky than he has been in years. In 2007 with his 62 saves he pitched from behind 25 more PA than ahead.
youngvalerawest
7/8/2010-1:00pm at 1:00 pm (UTC -4)
No sh*t pitchers struggle when they’re down in the count. The point is that K-Rod pitches from down in the count too often.
Whether he always has or always will is not the point. The point is that it will always be a problem if he continues to do it.
trs86
7/8/2010-1:06pm at 1:06 pm (UTC -4)
Of course the fact that he always has is a good point. He has been very successful for years not games in doing that. The difference this year is that the K’s are up, walks are down and hits are up. If you want to say the hits are up because he pitches from behind in the count, fine. So last year his walks were up, K’s down and and hits normal. Was that because he was pitching behind the count?
Right now either he is lucky that his walks and K’s are up or he is unlucky that his hits are up.
youngvalerawest
7/8/2010-1:09pm at 1:09 pm (UTC -4)
Do you mean to say he wasn’t shakey in the past?
Really?
Why do you try to deny that pitching from behind is a problem for him when clearly hitters fare much better against him when they’re ahead and clearly he pitches from behind just as often as he is ahead?
Does he have dirty pictures of you? Or is he beyond criticism for some act of greatness I’m not aware of?
trs86
7/8/2010-1:15pm at 1:15 pm (UTC -4)
Are you denying that he has been a very successful closer for years and has pitched from behind a lot during that tenure? Obviously it would be nice that he not pitch from behind. However, he has done it his entire career and been very successful.
As you stated earlier of course he struggles when behind in the count and he does do it often. However, my point is that it has not kept him from being very successful.
youngvalerawest
7/8/2010-1:29pm at 1:29 pm (UTC -4)
Let me first say it’s always annoying when you avoid answering a question by asking a different one.
And to answer your question: Of course, he’s been successful. But he’s always been shakey and while he’s always been among the saves leaders he’s also always been among the blown saves leaders too.
And just because he’s been “successful” (which depends on how you measure his success anyway), does that not mean he has room for improvement?
youngvalerawest
7/8/2010-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
KRod ranks 8th in WHIP among the pitchers who are in the top 15 in the NL in saves.
Among the top 30 in saves in MLB, K-Rod is tied for 18th in WHIP.
So the idea, as M4D pointed out, that K-Rod puts on too many baserunners is pretty accurate.
In terms of putting on baserunners, he’s a middle of the road closer.
trs86
7/8/2010-12:45pm at 12:45 pm (UTC -4)
But her point was that he finds it. His WHIP is right in line with Krod’s normal #’s. The only difference is that he is striking out more, walking less and giving up more hits.
youngvalerawest
7/8/2010-12:49pm at 12:49 pm (UTC -4)
The only difference is that he is giving up more hits?
Is that not significant?
youngvalerawest
7/8/2010-12:51pm at 12:51 pm (UTC -4)
And my point in this whole discussion is that the reason he is giving up more hits is because he pitches from behind in the count too often.
Why is this such an objectionable point to you? It is pretty clear from numbers.
trs86
7/8/2010-12:55pm at 12:55 pm (UTC -4)
Because that is not consistent with his career numbers. He has always been known to pitch from behind in the count a lot. For his career he has had more batter ahead counts than batter behind. Yet his stats this year show more hits and less walks.
njstuckintx
7/8/2010-1:14pm at 1:14 pm (UTC -4)
Which is more preferable? more hits or more walks?
trs86
7/8/2010-1:17pm at 1:17 pm (UTC -4)
Not sure. It really depends on why those hits are happening. His H/9 is up as is his BABIP. Does that mean he is unlucky or is that because he is serving up meatballs to lessen the walks?
njstuckintx
7/8/2010-1:20pm at 1:20 pm (UTC -4)
Good question and probably not quantifyable (sp?). To me, I’d prefer the walks over the hits, but either isn’t desirable.
trs86
7/8/2010-1:21pm at 1:21 pm (UTC -4)
True, but walks are a mental issue as well. Putting the ball in play you have a chance for your defense to make the play. Walking a hitter is very demoralizing and takes a toll on the defense too.
njstuckintx
7/8/2010-1:26pm at 1:26 pm (UTC -4)
Just like the Bald Guy vs. Shaved head… Either way, you don’t have any hair.
DNDJohan aka kistics
7/8/2010-12:20pm at 12:20 pm (UTC -4)
It sounds like the Mets and Ms are not talking anymore.. or at least the Mets are just waiting right now.
So if not Lee, who do you think is the next best pitcher out there? We all agree that the Mets need a SP. I still think Oswalt is not a bad choice. But it does sound like the Mets cannot take on his salary. So can the Mets give up the same prospects offered for Lee and have Astros eat some of his salary? Despite what anti-Oswalt people are saying, I still think he’s a viable SP in NL that can contribute to the team.
Who else? I think Sheets is one candidate, but he is always injury prone and having a bad year. All of his numbers are way down from what it used to be and I think Sheets might not be the same pitcher he was in Milwaukee.
Lily is another guy that’s been mentioned. But he’s never been an ace for any team and probably will slot in as the #3 SP behind Pelf. I’m not sure how much advantage Lily would give in a playoff series. I think he’s decent, but in his career he had only 2 seasons where he pitched over 200 innings.
Zambrano? If the Mets are willing to take his salary, I’d rather see them take on Oswalt. He’s a headcase who pointed finger at his teammates.
Haren? Good contract, but probably will take an arm and a leg to get him. Plus he’s still owed more than Oswalt though Haren’s younger and per year $$ is much less.
I also think there are 2nd tier guys like Westbrook or Myers, but can they help the Mets to go deep in the playoffs? I don’t see it.
trs86
7/8/2010-12:22pm at 12:22 pm (UTC -4)
I can’t see the money issues at all. This is the same team that had contracts out to Pineiro and Molina at the same time. Yes they ultimately chose not to overpay but those 2 alone would have accounted for 15M plus before the season even started.
DNDJohan aka kistics
7/8/2010-12:31pm at 12:31 pm (UTC -4)
But if that’s the case, why not jump at Oswalt? Right now, no team wants to trade for him and if you are willing to take on his salary, you can probably get him with giving up couple of B prospects. Sure he is owed 20-34M next couple of years, but where can you sign a pitcher of that caliber for 2-3 years 20-34M? 14 of his 17 starts are QS. His H/9 is the lowest of his career. His K/9 is highest since his rookie year. His WHIP is lowest since his rookie year.
He’s had couple rough starts lately, but how can you not if you are playing for the dreadful Astros?
IMO given his contract situation, he’s the 2nd best option behind Lee.
trs86
7/8/2010-12:39pm at 12:39 pm (UTC -4)
Maybe they will? I have no idea. Perhaps there is the Astros demands of high prospects for now or there are injury concerns? I have no idea.
metsfan4decades
7/8/2010-12:44pm at 12:44 pm (UTC -4)
What, exactly, is Oswalt’s contract situation?
Half year 2010 and all 2011 for about 22MIL left? I’m figuring at 14.6 a year that’s what’s left for a year and a half…
He’s got a club option for 2012 – how does that play in?
I like Oswalt. As you say, after Lee, he looks like the next best option. I just don’t know if the Mets like him and I’m not sure if it’s the $$. If we weren’t paying Ollie 12MIL for this year and next, this would be a no brainer….
oleosmirf
7/8/2010-12:58pm at 12:58 pm (UTC -4)
i would do F-Mart, Tejada and a pitching prospect not named Mejia
stickguy
7/8/2010-1:01pm at 1:01 pm (UTC -4)
he also has a club option for 2012. Off the top of my head, I think it is about 16mill, with a couple mill buyout?
And as always with full no trade guys, there is speculation that he would require this being picked up in order to OK a deal.
DNDJohan aka kistics
7/8/2010-1:14pm at 1:14 pm (UTC -4)
His salary
2010: $15M
2011: $16M
2012: $16M (Club Option w/$2M Buyout)
So assuming that you pay him $7.5M this season and $16M next and $2M in 2012, you pay him $25.5M and add $14M if the option gets picked up which is close to $40M. I still think it’s a good pick up.
njstuckintx
7/8/2010-12:54pm at 12:54 pm (UTC -4)
Astros would prefer to eat salary in order to get a better package in return. Not sure if that helps/hinders the Mets situation either way.
stickguy
7/8/2010-1:01pm at 1:01 pm (UTC -4)
I would always prefer the Mets eat the salary, and ship out lower prospects!
njstuckintx
7/8/2010-1:10pm at 1:10 pm (UTC -4)
Well, my guess is they’d accept Tejada, Gee and a decent OF prospect, but will shoot for a better Pitching prospect.
DNDJohan aka kistics
7/8/2010-1:16pm at 1:16 pm (UTC -4)
Me too. But what if the Mets offered something similar to what they are offering for Lee? Something like Thole, FMart and a pitching prospect for Oswalt + $7-8M cash.
njstuckintx
7/8/2010-1:25pm at 1:25 pm (UTC -4)
Flip Tejada for Thole and I bet they would do it. They are devoid of 2B/SS/3B. And most likely 1B as they’ll prob move Berkman or just not pick up his option next year.
Their catcher of the future is called up and doing his thing already.
DNDJohan aka kistics
7/8/2010-1:30pm at 1:30 pm (UTC -4)
where’s the dotted line?
njstuckintx
7/8/2010-1:32pm at 1:32 pm (UTC -4)
The dotted line is not in focus, as he’s looking at Lee way out there on the west coast.
stickguy
7/8/2010-12:41pm at 12:41 pm (UTC -4)
Lilly is my choice. And the regular season is a marathn, and you have to survive that before worrying about the playoffs!
Lilly has been very good for a long time. Not a “sexy” a name, but better than tha majority of pitchers.
His numbers over the last couple of years compare favorably, if not exceed, Lackey, they guy that so many pined for since he would “guarantee” a playoff appearance!
Actually, in 2009, Lilly had a higher OPS+ and a lower WHIP than Lee. So no, I do not think he is the trash guy that makes the rotation worse (as some poster, I think over at FWICG, said yesterday). 145 OPS+ and a 1.05 WHIP. Those are fine numbers.
even this year, he is at 118 and 1.10. You don’t think that will help (and Iknow that Lee is off the charts so far this year, but given it is so much below his career norm, will it keep up?) Even his great philly #s (regular season) where not close to Lilly last year.
I also like aHaren though. I think coming to NY, and a pennant race, will revitalize him.
Still, given all the facotrs, if Lilly can be had for a minor prospect return (relative to Lee), then I would be very happy to add him to the Met rotation.
oleosmirf
7/8/2010-12:47pm at 12:47 pm (UTC -4)
Lilly is perfect for us.
He’s a fly ball pitcher that translates perfect to citifield, he’s relativiely cheap, has experienced some success in NY and allows us to keep important prospects like Mejia and Thole.
even though i would get rid of F-Mart in a heartbeat, we probably could keep him as well.
trs86
7/8/2010-12:48pm at 12:48 pm (UTC -4)
Eh, Fmart for Lilly would be easy enough. However, I wonder if Chicago would rather have a pitcher and or an IF as they have some expiring deals.
oleosmirf
7/8/2010-12:57pm at 12:57 pm (UTC -4)
well if they want Tejada but they have Starlin Castro…
trs86
7/8/2010-1:01pm at 1:01 pm (UTC -4)
I am thinking they may want a guy that can play 1B because Lee is struggling, old and nearing FA right?
stickguy
7/8/2010-1:03pm at 1:03 pm (UTC -4)
lee is all of the above. But I have no real idea what the Cubs want the most, although I have a feeling they pretty much need everything!
If the Cubs told Omar Tejada + gee for Lilly, to me that is a no brainer immediate yes.
oleosmirf
7/8/2010-1:50pm at 1:50 pm (UTC -4)
for us definately…not sure Cubs fans would like that
njstuckintx
7/8/2010-1:07pm at 1:07 pm (UTC -4)
EVANS!!!!
trs86
7/8/2010-1:09pm at 1:09 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, not sure that’s good enough. I think they might be more interested in a guy like Duda. Perhaps you include the “player to be named later” which happens to be Murphy too?
DNDJohan aka kistics
7/8/2010-1:20pm at 1:20 pm (UTC -4)
Carter?
oleosmirf
7/8/2010-12:24pm at 12:24 pm (UTC -4)
I am not worried about K-rod whatsoever.