Fellow TRDMB member Ceetar was discussing how he didn’t approve of Santana not pitching Friday on his regular days rest and he mentioned how Dickey “cause once you see a knucklerballer, that’s it, your timing is screwed up for weeks. Just like how if you swing for the fences in a derby, you’ll never hit another HR” pitching 1st is a notion that he may not necessarily fully agree with.
So I decided to see how Dickey and the Mets have fared in starts where he started the series and then did the same with Santana. Below are the results.
UPDATE: A good point by TRS about maybe the quality of the starter has something to do with the Mets success after Dickey starts a series had me go back and do a comparison of the starters. Sure enough the starters following Santana doesn’t look as up to par as the one’s that followed Dickey. Good observation there TRS.
Series where R.A. Dickey started the series
May 19th vs Nationals
2 Game series
Game 1 – Mets lose 5-3 (Starter – R.A. Dickey)
Game 2 – Mets win 10-7 (Starter – J. Maine)
May 25th vs Phillies
3Â Game series
Game 1 – Mets win 8-0 (Starter – R.A. Dickey)
Game 2 – Mets win 5-0 (Starter – H. Takahashi)
Game 3 – Mets win 3-0 (Starter – Mike Pelfrey)
June 4th vs Marlins
3 Game series
Game 1 – Mets win 4-3 (Starter – R.A. Dickey)
Game 2 – Mets win 6-1 (Starter – J. Niese)
Game 3 – Mets win 7-6 (Starter – H. Takahashi)
June 11th vs Orioles
3 Game series
Game 1 – Mets win 5-1 (Starter – R.A. Dickey)
Game 2 – Mets win 3-1 (Starter – H. Takahashi)
Game 3 – Mets win 11-4 (Starter – Mike Pelfrey)
June 28th vs Marlins
3 Game series
Game 1 – Mets lose 10-3 (Starter – R.A. Dickey)
Game 2 – Mets lose 7-6 (Starter – H. Takahashi)
Game 3 – Mets win 6-5 (Starter – Mike Pelfrey)
July 9th vs Braves
3 Game series
Game 1 – Mets lose 4-2 (Starter – R.A. Dickey)
Game 2 – Mets lose 4-0 (Starter – Mike Pelfrey)
Game 3 – Mets win 3-0 (Starter – J. Santana)
Series where Johan Santana started the series
April 5th vs Marlins
3 Game series
Game 1 – Mets win 7-1 (Starter – J. Santana)
Game 2 – Mets lose 7-6 (Starter – J. Maine)
Game 3 – Mets lose 3-1 (Starter – J. Niese)
April 27th vs Dodgers
3 Game series
Game 1 – Mets win 4-0 (Starter – J. Santana)
Game 2 – Mets win 10-5 (Starter – O. Perez)
Game 3 – Mets win 7-3 (Starter – J. Maine)
May 13th vs Marlins
4 Game series
Game 1 – Mets lose 2-1 (Starter – J. Santana)
Game 2 – Mets lose 7-2 (Starter – O. Perez)
Game 3 – Mets lose 7-5 (Starter – J. Maine)
Game 4 – Mets lose 10-8 (Starter – J. Niese)
May 28th vs Brewers
3 Game series
Game 1 – Mets lose 2-0 (Starter – J. Santana)
Game 2 – Mets lose 8-6 (Starter – F. Nieve)
Game 3 – Mets lose 10-4 (Starter – R.A. Dickey)
June 15th vs Indians
3 Game series
Game 1 – Mets win 7-6 (Starter – J. Santana)
Game 2 – Mets win 8-4 (Starter – J. Niese)
Game 3 – Mets win 6-4 (Starter – R.A. Dickey)
July 1st vs Nationals
4 Game series
Game 1 – Mets lose 2-1 (Starter – J. Santana)
Game 2 – Mets win 5-3 (Starter – J. Niese)
Game 3 – Mets lose 6-5 (Starter – R.A. Dickey)
Game 4 – Mets win 9-5 (Starter – H. Takahashi)
When compared to each other Dickey has a much better record than Johan Santana.
- R.A. Dickey – 12/W – 5/L
- Johan Santana – 9/W – 11/L
Does this prove that having Dickey start a series is the reason why the Mets won the amount of games they did following him? Of course not but you can’t deny that they have been successful with Dickey starting a series.
Oh and if you are wondering how the other starters have done. They haven’t had as much success either.
- Mike Pelfrey – 8/W – 9/L
- Jonathon Niese – 5/W – 4/L
- Hisanori Takahashi – 3/W – 6/L
19 comments
fongy2
7/12/2010-12:53pm at 12:53 pm (UTC -4)
Our man Ceeter is spot-on about this!
ceetar
7/12/2010-1:46pm at 1:46 pm (UTC -4)
I’m up in the air about it still. I do understand the thought behind it, but I’m pretty sure this is one of those “intangible” arguments.
I’m not sure series wins are the way to go. I’m not even sure there is any specific stat that would bare this out. Especially not with small-sample size Dickey. Too much is dependent on the next pitchers.
Numbers I would look to look at though, when I have more time or a database that makes it easy to find..
Let’s look at Wakefield, when he’s in a rotation. Let’s look at all the games, the next day, preferably started by the same pitcher. Let’s compare those numbers, as a whole, to the team’s offense for the year. Things like .avg and runs scored maybe?
Mr North Jersey
7/12/2010-3:28pm at 3:28 pm (UTC -4)
I agree that there are just too many variables (more than I care to investigate) to come close to any valid argument to starting a knuckler in a series.
I will admit to being surprised how much better the Mets record is when Dickey starts the series compared to any other starter.
If you or anyone else for that matter ever decide to dig deeper I’d be curious to see what more light can be shed on this.
I looked at the runs scored by the opposition in the above series starts that came after Dickey and Santana pitched.
If I did the math right the runs scored by the opposition after Dickey started a series as compared to Santana was something like,
35 runs scored by opposition in series after Dickey starts
82 runs scored by opposition in series after Santana starts
trs86
7/12/2010-3:30pm at 3:30 pm (UTC -4)
Hmm, I wonder if that is also about what spot in the rotation they are in. Example maybe Pelfrey and Santana followed Dickey while a host of others followed Johan?
Mr North Jersey
7/12/2010-3:32pm at 3:32 pm (UTC -4)
Exactly what i meant by too many variables.
youngvalerawest
7/12/2010-4:54pm at 4:54 pm (UTC -4)
Santana only pitched in one series in which Dickey started the first game.
trs86
7/12/2010-7:25pm at 7:25 pm (UTC -4)
True, but Santana had 5 Ollie’s and Maine’s.
youngvalerawest
7/12/2010-1:48pm at 1:48 pm (UTC -4)
According to MLBTR the Jays have made their entire back of the bullpen available. Any of Frasor, Gregg or Downs would be an improvement to the Mets’ 8th inning situation.
njstuckintx
7/12/2010-1:53pm at 1:53 pm (UTC -4)
What do you think they might cost?
Not that he’s available (or healthy) but I’d love to see them get Marcum + a bullpen guy from Toronto.
youngvalerawest
7/12/2010-4:45pm at 4:45 pm (UTC -4)
Frasor and Gregg might be Type B free agents so presumably the return for them should be less than Downs who may be a Type A (though I’m not certain of this).
I suspect there will be some competition for each of these guys, though.
GravediggerHebner
7/12/2010-3:05pm at 3:05 pm (UTC -4)
I can’t glean if there is any actual effect of throwing Dickey 1st in a series or not, there are just so many other factors involved. To me it’s the same as someone hypothetically saying “the Mets would be better if they played Henry Blanco more” and then responding to that person “the Mets have a losing record when they play Blanco” and them saying “that’s irrelevant.”
It seems like it’s just something to talk about coming from a guy who likes to talk a lot even though he doesn’t necessarily have something to say (by that I mean Jerry Manuel). I put it that way because it comes from the same manager who has repeatedly said that he has no idea about knuckle ball pitchers in terms of how to know if they are tiring or if they are doing well or poorly. To then deploy him so “scientifically” seems more humorous to me than anything else.
GravediggerHebner
7/12/2010-3:44pm at 3:44 pm (UTC -4)
In 2008 Dickey started 14 games for SEA. 3 of those starts were the 1st game of a series:
4/18/08 vs LAA, SEA lost Dickey’s start and went 1-2 in the series. The next day LAA batters went 10 for 32 scoring 4 runs off Washburn & Corcoran;
6/13/08 vs WAS, SEA lost Dickey’s start and went 0-3 in the series. The next day WAS batters went 13 for 39 scoring 5 runs off Bedard, Batista, Rhodes & Green;
6/30/08 vs TOR, SEA lost Dickey’s start and went 2-1 in the series. The next day TOR batters went 11 for 38 scoring 6 runs off Rowland-Smith, Corcoran, Jimenez, Rhodes, Green & Morrow.
What does it all mean?
njstuckintx
7/12/2010-3:54pm at 3:54 pm (UTC -4)
That Seattle sucks.
Mr North Jersey
7/12/2010-4:09pm at 4:09 pm (UTC -4)
Good one.
oleosmirf
7/12/2010-6:45pm at 6:45 pm (UTC -4)
opponents have scored 2.5 runs per game in the start right after Dickey. Needless to say almost half of those runs were given up by John Maine…
Hazmet
7/12/2010-7:36pm at 7:36 pm (UTC -4)
So the Mets are better when they lead with their Dickey.
Mr North Jersey
7/12/2010-7:37pm at 7:37 pm (UTC -4)
LoL
gategem
7/13/2010-12:19am at 12:19 am (UTC -4)
According to my gf most men lead with their Dickey.
gategem
7/13/2010-12:17am at 12:17 am (UTC -4)
Many years ago when Tim McCarver was doing the Mets telecasts I remember during one of his interminable on air lectures he made mention of the fact that knuckleball pitchers tend to mess up a hitters timing and the hitters have to then re-adjust to pitchers with standard stuff that follow the knuckleball pitcher. However I never saw stats that backed up that assertion.