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Jul 14

A Bay Watch For Another Hot Canadian???

Categories:

Mets, Mr. North Jersey, Real Dirty Mets Blog

by Dirtysanchez

Ehh... nope wrong Bay Watch.

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This Bay Watch

Let’s get down to it OK? Jason Bay has not had a 1st half that many of us expected. Many immediately focus on the 6 HR’s as a cause for concern. Yes his 6 HR’s are a career low for the 1st half (other than 2003 where he only played 3 games in the 1st half) and I am not sure the argument that because of Citi Fields his homers are turned into doubles and triples. His 19 Doubles are at his career averages for seasons where he has played a full 1st half. His 6 Triples are yes above his career averages for seasons where he has played a full 1st half but even if you made all his 6 Triples to HR’s he would still be below his career average of 17.8 HR’s for a full 1st half season.

To me though I can look past the Home-runs the bigger concern is his RBI’s.

Bay’s 44 1st half RBI’s ties the lowest he has had in a 1st half since 2005. (In 2003 & 2004 Bay played only 3 and 48 games so I am only counting seasons where played at least 85 games in the 1st half.) In 2005 Bay had 57 RBI’s in the 2nd half finishing with 101 RBI’s for the season.

Bay’s past reputation of being a streaky hitter leaves hope that he can come close to hopefully duplicating those numbers again in 2010. For the Mets sake I hope so cause other than a 9 game stretch from June 28th to July 6th where he drove in 13 RBI’s over that 9 games. Bay has not really gotten on a hot streak.

Keep in mind that with all that being said Bay’s 44 RBI’s is 2nd only to Wright who has 65 RBI’s. Bay has contributed I am not saying that Bay is a bust, far from it. I fear to think where the Mets would be without those 44 RBI’s but he is the marquee bat that was brought in to drive in runs. That is why the Mets paid him $66M for.

What will Bay do this 2nd half? I don’t know I guess one can only hope his reputation of being streaky is true and he gets HOT! and goes on a tear this 2nd half.

Jason Bay average #’s per 1st half from 2005 to 2009 ( I am not using 2003 & 2004 because I wanted to use what he did over an entire 1st half. )

  • HR – 17.8 per 1st half
  • Rbi – 58.2 per 1st half
  • Run – 55.2 per 1st half
  • 2B – 19.8 per 1st half
  • 3B – 2.4 per 1st half

In 2010 Jason Bay finished 1st half with 6/HR – 44/RBI – 46/R – 19/2B – 6/3B.

I 1st Half G GS AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
2003 3 3 8 2 2 1 0 1 2 1 1 .250 .400 .750 1.150
2004 48 39 148 26 45 12 1 12 39 14 50 .304 .371 .642 1.013
2005 87 87 328 59 98 25 4 16 44 45 79 .299 .384 .546 .930
2006 90 90 331 54 94 17 2 21 66 56 84 .284 .389 .538 .927
2007 86 86 327 43 83 16 2 13 56 37 82 .254 .332 .434 .766
2008 92 91 341 64 98 22 2 19 53 56 77 .287 .387 .531 .917
2009 86 86 311 56 81 19 2 20 72 57 87 .260 .380 .527 .908
2010 85 82 309 46 82 19 6 6 44 40 76 .265 .355 .424 .779
Career Total 577 564 2103 350 583 131 19 108 376 306 536 .277 .372 .512 .883
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table



Jason Bay average #’s per 2nd half from 2004 to 2009 ( I am not using 2003 because I wanted to use what he did over an entire 2nd half. )

  • HR – 13.3 per 2nd half
  • Rbi – 44.3 per 2nd half
  • Run – 43.6 per 2nd half
  • 2B – 12.5 per 2nd half
  • 3B – 1.5 per 2nd half

In 2010 what will Jason Bay finish the 2nd half with?

I 2nd Half G GS AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
2003 27 23 79 13 23 6 1 3 12 18 28 .291 .423 .506 .929
2004 72 71 263 35 71 12 3 14 43 27 79 .270 .350 .498 .848
2005 75 75 271 51 85 19 2 16 57 50 63 .314 .422 .576 .998
2006 69 67 239 47 69 12 1 14 43 46 72 .289 .405 .523 .929
2007 59 57 211 35 50 9 0 8 28 22 59 .237 .321 .393 .714
2008 63 62 236 47 67 13 2 12 48 25 60 .284 .353 .508 .862
2009 65 65 220 47 61 10 1 16 47 37 75 .277 .389 .550 .939
Career Total 430 420 1519 275 426 81 10 83 278 225 436 .280 .378 .511 .889
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

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7 comments

  1. njstuckintx

    7/14/2010-9:06am at 9:06 am (UTC -4)

    Reply

    So if your stat crunching proves correct, we should look for a drop off in production from the first half? Yikes…

  2. metsfan4decades

    7/14/2010-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)

    Reply

    Yikes is right. Bay is really going to have to go on a tear second half to be somewhere near the norm for power numbers this year.

  3. Kingman 26

    7/14/2010-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)

    Reply

    As is the case with this debate almost everywhere, defense, baserunning, and overall hustle/attitude are ignored.

    Bay has clearly been a disappointment in the HR and RBI department. Big departments to be sure.

    But he is still hitting 2Bs and 3Bs, getting on base (a little below usual), stealing bases, playing a very good left field, and hustling 100% of the time.

    I sincerely believe that the hustle and attitude of players like Bay, Barajas, Ike, Pagan, etc. is a major factor in this team’s overall resurgence, non-stop hustle, and excellent fundamental play comapred to 2009.

    Despite the power outage, Bay’s defense, baserunning, hustle, attitude, and intangibles are clearly among the reasons this team is in the surprisingly good position it is in today.

    But yes, with more HR and RBI, we might be in first place.

    1. Mr North Jersey

      7/14/2010-10:50am at 10:50 am (UTC -4)

      Reply

      I think it is safe to say that because of Bay’s defense, baserunning, and overall hustle/attitude he has not been singled out by the media and fans alike until of late.

      Bay brings a lot to the table but let’s not lose focus on the biggest reason he was paid $66M for. To hit HR’S and drive in runs.

      1. Kingman 26

        7/14/2010-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)

        Reply

        Very true, touche, and good points.

        Especially the first sentence. Really good point.

        1. stickguy

          7/14/2010-11:00am at 11:00 am (UTC -4)

          Reply

          Yes, of course you have to look at the total package.

          but to answer your other question (or whoever asked it), where would we be without his 44 RBIs? Probably just fine, or better.

          If they had gone cheaper out in LF, it probably would have been with a platoon of some sort (just my guess). And most likely, for a couple of million, they could have built a 2 headed LF “monster” that put up more RBIs.

          Even someone like Evans + a veteran LH bat.

          Bay has a ton of ABs, mostly hitting 4th and 5th, which make his lack of RBIs even more depressing.

          1. njstuckintx

            7/14/2010-11:01am at 11:01 am (UTC -4)

            Well, tell Wright to stop driving them all in and Bay would have some more.

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