Aug 06
Reading around today and ran into this article from fangraphs
Why Not Understanding Marginal Utility Is A Circular Problem
Not sure if you have read it yet but it gives the best analogy to the “splinter in your mind” questions about the Mets. Its a really good read, check it out.
MLBTradeRumors
Twitter Tweet: Mets Trade Collin McHugh For... { Compensating for the Coors Field... } – Jun 19, 9:16 AMVideo: Braves Announcer Less Than Classy Hoping... { Back when Skip Carey was... } – Jun 19, 9:07 AM
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Twitter Tweet: Mets Trade Collin McHugh For... { Not that McHugh was anything... } – Jun 19, 8:55 AM
Twitter Tweet: Mets Trade Collin McHugh For... { They must have DFA McHugh... } – Jun 19, 8:40 AM
47 comments
trs86
8/6/2010-8:39am at 8:39 am (UTC -4)
Gotta love the self proclaimed geniuses at Fangraphs…. Sigh…
ceetar
8/6/2010-8:50am at 8:50 am (UTC -4)
Well, it’s not hard to see that trading the best players in baseball is not how you ‘rebuild’. That part makes sense.
the rest? I’m not so sure. What is the problem with the dam then? They aren’t clear there. Do they just mean that you have to pick better ‘marginal’ pieces of wood? I think that’s a given. But everybody sees each piece of wood as able to fit in different holes, or unable to fit in others. I don’t believe it’s as simple as “these guys gotta go”.
I don’t think rearranging the base logs before they settle in is the right answer either. Do we swap the Beltran and Pagan logs because we think it might create a better result? (Ignoring the idea that there is a possibility, although it seems unlikely, that the bruise heals in the offseason and he’s without a brace next year, and not inhibited)
Compare it to sunrises, dams, whatever. I’m not convinced really knows what exactly is wrong with the Mets. It’s not just a statistical “this is what they are” although some statheads seem to want to believe that. It’s deeper than that. I understand my emotions and feelings are biased, but watching this team, and how they’ve played, over the last three years and they just don’t seem right. While I’m not certain Minaya has had full reign to fix them the way he wants, I just think, and have thought since it was obvious they were firing Randolph, that they needed to bring in outsiders with fresh ideas and perspective and insight, not promote from within and recycle the same broken ideas and plattitudes.
trs86
8/6/2010-8:52am at 8:52 am (UTC -4)
Look there was no real intentions of Jacobs or GMJR actually being the real 1B or CF.
ceetar
8/6/2010-9:02am at 9:02 am (UTC -4)
Not really. when two logs fractured, they just grabbed the closest two on the shore.
I think they kept GMJR way too long, and I think only an idiot would’ve played GMJR instead of Pagan going into the season. They ermembered the log was useful 4 years ago when it had a treatment on it, but it wasn’t so effective.
okay,, i’m done with this logging thing. baseball is not building a dam dam.
njstuckintx
8/6/2010-8:57am at 8:57 am (UTC -4)
I agree very much with that last paragraph. It’s like opening the windows to get some fresh air into the room.
And trying to understand exactly why the stars haven’t performed is truly confusing. I understand why crap players played like crap. That’s the easy part.
Kingman 26
8/6/2010-8:58am at 8:58 am (UTC -4)
This is a truly weak piece by someone who quite obviously does not follow the Mets closely.
“Angel Pagan has been one of the best players in baseball this season.” No he hasn’t; not even close. He has been very good though.
“Ike Davis is having a nice rookie year at first base.” Nice at VERY best. Lots of Ks, weak BA and OBP, slow, and decent fielder.
“Mike Pelfrey has a better ERA/FIP/xFIP/tERA than last year.” Pelf has been abominable for a month or more.
“K-Rod has been flat-out great.” No, he most certainly hasn’t. Among the league leaders in blown saves, he has been very good, but not remotely close to “flat out great.”
“Jose Reyes has been incredible.” A laugher; absolute nonsense and ridiculous. Has been mediocre at the plate, in the field recently, and on the basepaths. By any standard, especially Jose’s past.
A very silly and nonsensical article that vividly proves the occasional accuracy of the very negative things people say about “statheads.”
metsfan4decades
8/6/2010-9:02am at 9:02 am (UTC -4)
It does no good to argue with their points, kingman. They always will come back with some stat to prove their argument.
Case in point:
Angel Pagan has the 13th highest WAR in all of baseball for position players. Yes, that qualifies as “one of the best this season.†He’s higher than Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, David Wright, and Kevin Youkilis.
K-Rod has a 2.68 FIP, 3.38 xFIP, a 2.35 ERA, and the third best K/BB of this career. That counts as “great†in my book.
Kingman 26
8/6/2010-9:07am at 9:07 am (UTC -4)
Well KRod has 5 blown saves. Only 3 pitchers in baseball have more.
Calling Reyes “incredible” is comedy–based on what stat do they claim that?
I know I should ignore and move on, but this was one of the more ridiculous pieces I have seen in ages.
ceetar
8/6/2010-9:12am at 9:12 am (UTC -4)
I really need to write these “anti” stat posts I have in my head.
ceetar
8/6/2010-9:06am at 9:06 am (UTC -4)
Pagan has been. You may have to expand ‘best’ a little further than top 4-5, but he really has been up there. They’re using WAR for this statement, btw, and for most of them.
Someone remind these guys that Frenchy has the same amount of walks as Reyes. That’ll put the ‘incredible’ thing to rest.
K-Rod has been border-line great. He’s just had some horrific meltdowns, which make it worse. The problem with statheads is that they tend to zoom out, and ignore specific instances as ‘noise’, but that’s now quite how baseball works.
Kingman 26
8/6/2010-9:14am at 9:14 am (UTC -4)
I agree largely with the second two paragraphs, but Pagan has been very good. He’s not close to being one of the best players in the game.
As I am starting to realize lately–and maybe many teams’ fans do this–most of us dramatically overrate our players.
Pagan’s been really good, but nothing like one of the best in the game. Other than BA and SB, is he in the top 20 or 30 in ANY stat? Come on. He’s a good player having a very good year.
njstuckintx
8/6/2010-9:27am at 9:27 am (UTC -4)
Just curious and for clarity’s sake, who are the top 5 in the game and by what measuring stick are you using?
Kingman 26
8/6/2010-9:34am at 9:34 am (UTC -4)
For starters, is Pagan better/more valuable than Wright, Pujols, ARod, Votto, Cabrera, Hamilton, Vlad, Howard, Utley, Holliday, Longoria, Morneau, Mauer, Delmon Young, Ichiro, Youkilis, Zimmerman, Cano, Jimenez, Wainwright, Halladay, Hudson, Carpenter, Josh Johnson, Cliff Lee, Lincecum, Mariano, Soria, Soriano, Johan…..
Exactly which of those guys would you refuse to trade Pagan for even up?
njstuckintx
8/6/2010-9:42am at 9:42 am (UTC -4)
Wright, no.
Pujols, no
Arod, yes
Votto, no
Cabrera, no
Hamilton, push
Vlad, push
Howard, i think so, yes.
Utley, yes, but only cause he plays and utley is broken.
Longoria, no
etc.
I’d say he’s been mid to lower section of that pack (i’m not counting pitchers they can’t be factored in the argument). So, If you say top 20-30 =’s best int he game, then yeah, he prob is. To me, best in the game is like top 10, and i won’t go that far to put him in top 10.
As for trading, i don’t think that’s part of the argument, as there are so many factors involved. But I do see your point. But for quick giggles sake, wouldn’t trade him for Arod or Vlad. And prob not Howard or Utley, just cause they are evil and bleed philly when they are cut.
metsfan4decades
8/6/2010-8:58am at 8:58 am (UTC -4)
I read this article yesterday. It’s probably me but even when fangraphs has something intelligent to say, I find myself reading it looking for the condescending tone that always seems to be the underlying theme in anything they write.
I’ll give them the point that often the supporting cast or role players needed for the team is not as well thought out as it should be. They didn’t stop there though. They automatically assume it’s b/c GMs don’t subscribe to studying their ‘new fangled’ stats and metrics is what lead to the failure. If they would just follow what fangraphs think they should all be paying attention to, they’d have a superior team.
Simply put, they’re the snobs of baseball.
Kingman 26
8/6/2010-9:02am at 9:02 am (UTC -4)
Jose has been incredible? KRod has been flat-out great? Pagan is one of the best players in baseball?
You watch every day–are any of these statements anything less than laughable?
And whatever stat one quotes for Pelf, he has been awful for many, many weeks now.
They may also be the snobs, but based on this article, they sure are not very knowledgeable snobs.
metsfan4decades
8/6/2010-9:04am at 9:04 am (UTC -4)
Well, that was kind of my point. I wasn’t defending them, nor the article. I was saying they think in a vacuum, driven by stats and only by stats and even if you try and argue a point, they just throw more stats at you. (see my comment above).
Kingman 26
8/6/2010-9:09am at 9:09 am (UTC -4)
Oh I know you weren’t! Sorry if it sounded like I meant that.
I know you FAR better than to think that!
metsfan4decades
8/6/2010-9:12am at 9:12 am (UTC -4)
And to illustrate by opinion of them being the snobs of baseball:
‘I just see no reason why the average fangraphs reader couldn’t have walked into say, the Mets of 2007, and built a power house.’
Gee, I didn’t know it was that easy. Just get a GM who knows how to read a graph and you’ll have a dynasty for years to come….
stickguy
8/6/2010-9:11am at 9:11 am (UTC -4)
sometimes the truth hurts, my grumpy friend.
Part of their snobbery is that they are sure they have stats which are better than any subjective person’s view. meaning you can crunch the numbers, and they give you the answer that your eyes trick you about.
Kingman 26
8/6/2010-9:17am at 9:17 am (UTC -4)
Grumpy?
Are you saying that Reyes has been “incredible”??
KRod has been “flat-out great” with 5 blown saves in 2/3 of a season?
Pagan is “one of the best players in the game.”
PLEASE explain.
oleosmirf
8/6/2010-9:21am at 9:21 am (UTC -4)
they believe in WAR and according to WAR Pagan has been the 2nd most valuable player in the NL…
i personally don’t believe in WAR but yes Pagan has been absolutely outstanding. how many guys in baseball bat .300+ 30 SB with an OPS+ > 120 and play superior defense???
ceetar
8/6/2010-9:17am at 9:17 am (UTC -4)
Except some of their stats are based on eyes.
And if you read through how they calculate some of these stats you encounter things like “we’ll ignore double players for this, as noise.” They apply assumption to things, and they apply static values to dynamic concepts (replacement players for one).
Now they have a ton of value, but stats are simply a tool and many treat them as law.
They can treat the game as a math equation rather than a competition, which comes across comical when they totally ignore RBIs and such.
njstuckintx
8/6/2010-9:22am at 9:22 am (UTC -4)
Numbers can tell you any story you want, dependant on how they are presented. Percentages are the absolute worst, in my mind. They do not take into account how long said stat has been done. For that one month, the Mets were the best team in baseball. For the other stretches, they give the Pirates a run for their money. As soon as someone starts with the percentages, my brain clouds over. One of the vendors I deal with for my job always states in his quotes “and we always give you a 10% discount off the price” like that is some great thing. I tell him, you are consistently 20-30% higher than everyone else, so you can take that 10% and stick… well, he can do what he pleases with that 10%.
Kingman 26
8/6/2010-9:28am at 9:28 am (UTC -4)
Thank you!
Psst, don’t tell anyone, but my brother and my biz offers 5-10% off of just about everything we sell, but we make a lot of it back in our slightly high shipping costs. But we package everything outstandingly with reused and recycled materials (which we also save dough on!)
But, still, we are very well regarded and the biz grows every year.
And we are a non-union shop.
oleosmirf
8/6/2010-9:17am at 9:17 am (UTC -4)
since the 1st Yankee series in May, Jose has batted .321, Pagan has been one of the best CF in all of baseball and K-Rod is having his best season since 2006. Pelfrey has been awful his last few starts but how soon we forget he was almost an all-star.
blaming Jose, Santana, Wright, Beltran, K-Rod for this teams problem’s is not fair, its the guys like Perez, Castillo, Francouer, Valdes, Maine, Nieve, Cora, GMJ, Jacobs, Catalanatto, Barajas (since May 7th), who don’t belong in the MLB really that have been the problem.
obviously you are going to have some guys that are one-year wonders but if you replace the majority of those guys and you will see a lot more wins…
Kingman 26
8/6/2010-9:25am at 9:25 am (UTC -4)
I am not blaming the best players for the problems.
Jose has not been remotely close to incredible, Pelf has been horrible for basically half his starts, Pagan is not remotely close to one of the best players in the game, and 5 saves in 2/3 of a season is not flat out great.
oleosmirf
8/6/2010-9:33am at 9:33 am (UTC -4)
well thats where your eyes are playing tricks on you. K-Rod has actually been very good this season. Jose has been incredible since the middle of May, which i think you can ignore his first month b/c he missed ST and it hasn’t been half the season for Pelf.
His april, may and june numbers were top 10-15 in baseball. If he were to regain his form in september he would finish the year with pretty good numbers…
Kingman 26
8/6/2010-9:43am at 9:43 am (UTC -4)
Oleo, have you watched the last few weeks??
Jose had a very nice hot streak, which has been surrounded by mediocre play. I love Jose, but the oblique and/or other things clearly ended his hot streak which coincided with the Mets’ offense dying.
In his last 24 games, he has scored 12 R, stolen TWO bases, played some very shoddy defense, has 0 3B and 1 HR, and the team is 7-17 in those games.
His OBP is .318. He projects to 98 runs, 175 hits, 33 2B, 9 3B, and 33 SB.
This is “incredible”??
Mr North Jersey
8/6/2010-10:42am at 10:42 am (UTC -4)
Mike Pelfrey
Fisrt 11 starts + 1 releif apperanace
71.2/IP 61/H 19/R 19/ER 28/BB 52/SO 3/HR 2.39/ERA .240/BA
3 of 11 starts gave up 3 or more runs
8 of 11 starts pitched at least 6 innings
Last 11 starts
58.0/IP 89/H 44/R 41/ER 22/BB 25/SO 6/HR 6.36/ERA .362/BA
8 of 11 starts gave up 3 or more runs
4 of 11 starts pitched at least 6 innings
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=pelfrmi01&t=p&year=
Kingman’s “Pelf has been horrible for basically half his starts” quote is pretty much accurate.
Kingman 26
8/6/2010-11:57am at 11:57 am (UTC -4)
Thank you sir!
I still really like Pelf, and have hopes that he will ultimately put it all together, but boy has he lost the splitter and thus his effectiveness.
stickguy
8/6/2010-9:33am at 9:33 am (UTC -4)
you do have to read their criteria. Such as, jose since a certain time, pagan and Bb Rod based on the stats they love, and pelf being better, over all, for the season.
so by those metrics, they are correct.
and stats all count. Being great for a while and then lousy for a while still averages out to, well, average!
Kingman 26
8/6/2010-10:04am at 10:04 am (UTC -4)
OK, silly me, I forgot that “average” and “incredible” “flat out great” and “one of the best in the game” are all precise synonyms!
Oh, and Jidiot’s application for Float bartender/valet has been reviewed, but we still have not heard back from ANY of his references, so it is on hold.
stickguy
8/6/2010-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
him or me next year. and that goes for the float too.
Kingman 26
8/6/2010-11:57am at 11:57 am (UTC -4)
Oh come on! In a service job SERVING you and listening to you explain why he is a Jidiot?
I thought that would be a dream gift for you!
njstuckintx
8/6/2010-11:38am at 11:38 am (UTC -4)
Be careful. You can order a saphire martini (AKA, the home run) and he’ll serve you up a shirley temple (AKA, the sac bunt.
Kingman 26
8/6/2010-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
HAHA!
Mmmmm, Bombay Sapphire…..
oleosmirf
8/6/2010-9:03am at 9:03 am (UTC -4)
the problem is the “weak logs” are part of Omar’s “plan”. Omar doesn’t believe in spending money on complimentary players, even on a 1 year deal.
Im not talking about depth signings for AAA like Dickey but Omar consistantly throws out cheap below average players to compensate for the money he spends on big time FAs.
stickguy
8/6/2010-9:30am at 9:30 am (UTC -4)
problem is, there are only so many of these great complimentary players floating around, especially ones that you can get cheap and/or on ST deals.
and a lot of them (including ones mentioned on the braves) are a crap shoot each year. Guys coming off injury, or someone like dickey that has a breakout year which really cannot be predicted from his history.
oleosmirf
8/6/2010-9:37am at 9:37 am (UTC -4)
i’m talking about Omar signing Cora over Felipe Lopez, Escobar over Saito, Tim Redding over anyone.
Sometimes minor leagues are the best option (see Barajas) Omar fails to recognize the holes and gives the players way too much time to “right themselves”. If Omar were proactive instead of reactive, we might have been able to salvage the season…
stickguy
8/6/2010-10:48am at 10:48 am (UTC -4)
that last sentence summarizes exactly what I feel about the met FO, and Omar if it is really him.
ceetar
8/6/2010-9:32am at 9:32 am (UTC -4)
btw, watched the Cyclones last night. good team.
The Mudhens brought in a knuckleballer. He looked roughly like I would probably look throwing one. Definitely unrefined. 49mph at one point, just sorta lobbing the pitch and was absolutely tattooed. very funny.
Ron Darling popped on for a bit, talked about how his first minor league stadium was in.shreveport? the Upper Deck was condemmed, and on nickle beer night (You know about that right Bobby?) they threw beer on you when you left the field.
metsfan4decades
8/6/2010-9:44am at 9:44 am (UTC -4)
I didn’t see the whole game but did catch the Darling and Wally appearances. It occurred to me that Ronnie, who had a rare day off, decided to make an appearance for a while during the game. I don’t know if Kevin Burhardt was there or not but the two of them never seem to ever take a day off.
They do appear to have some young talent on that team. I just wonder how that will translate some years down the road. I don’t follow the minor leagues as closely as some do, but here’s hoping that one or two of them actually make it.
Mr North Jersey
8/6/2010-10:14am at 10:14 am (UTC -4)
Not reading Fangraphs in over a year due to the fact that when i 1st started reading them a while back I found myself almost always disagreeing with their views.
I have to say I like the creativity they used at trying to use building a dam with logs and building a baseball team.
It was a good effort that made some interesting points but in the end it doesn’t really nail the complexities of building a team.
I would say the analogy needed to add that it’s not just buying the wood but buying the wood you need but having only said amount of money to buy it with.
You would prob buy some used wood on sale that has seen better days but it’s stock was of good quality.
Some new wood for a lumber company that is new to the market and has yet established a reputation of being quality lumber.
You also have to the deal with the Dam union that regulate how you dispose of and where you can actually place the wood you bought.
I will give fangraphs credit for the effort.
GravediggerHebner
8/6/2010-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
I think Oleo’s comment at 9:03am hit on what the Fangraphs post was taking a roundabout pretentious self-indulgent route to.
What I think almost everyone here has said in much plainer language for as long as this blog has existed is what I think the Fangraphs piece was saying: the supporting cast of the Mets sucks.
Whether one thinks the players the Fangraphs piece described as the foundation logs are having good seasons or bad seasons, or at least seasons that are below par for them, these players are still the best players on the team even given their below par performance.
It is very fortunate (I won’t say “lucky” because that would imply no planning and I believe there was planning involved here) that they have Pagan and that he’s having by some measures one of the most productive seasons in MLB because otherwise this team would be below .500.
Omar has always shown that he can have a roster that has a few very good players on it. But since 2006 he has failed to surround those players with other viable players. The Fangraphs piece was demonstrating (to me anyway) that phenomenon. Jeff Francoeur, Luis Castillo and Rod Barajas are not viable enough to compensate when the very good players underwhelm. Alex Cora is not good enough to play significant games. The Mets have too many “fillers” on their roster in places where they should have better than that. This I believe was the point. I think even the author of the post understands that they would likely have some filler somewhere on the roster but not at 3 starting positions.
In a nutshell the problem is what Oleo said: counting on these “meh” players to be productive parts of a team on a regular basis.
Kingman 26
8/6/2010-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
Totally agree with your main point.
As has become my mantra and as may soon become an opinion piece, the 2006 team’s LoDuca, Valentin, Chavez, Bradford, Oliver, and Sanchez were the difference between 2006 and the last four years.
GravediggerHebner
8/6/2010-1:42pm at 1:42 pm (UTC -4)
I imagine you won’t look at it through this prism (which is fine) and I know some of us, myself included, don’t fully understand how it works and thus how to use it, and I know some of us simply refuse to put an stock at all into it.
Having said that I just did a lot of math over at Fangraphs using their WAR numbers. I added up the totals from 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2010 even though 2010 is incomplete. I ignored 2009 for reasons are hope are obvious.
What I added up were the WAR of the top 4 OF, the top 5 IF and top 2 C from each year so this is just hitters (and their fielding which is incorporated) but omits pitchers entirely.
Of those positions I noted in the above paragraph the following is the total WAR of all of them, minus the total WAR of just Beltran, Wright & Reyes (for 2010 I used Pagan, Wright & Reyes), resulting in the sum total WAR of the remaining 8 hitters (i.e. the supporting cast).
2010
14.4 all
09.7 P,W&R
04.7 others
2008
31.4 all
20.9 B,W&R
10.5 others
2007
29.5 all
19.2 B,W&R
10.3 others
2006
32.4 all
18.1 B,W&R
14.3 others
So based on this “unique” method of trying to determine the contribution of the supporting cast the 2006 cast outdid any of the subsequent years. If there is any merit to the way I’ve done this at all it supports the idea that “the core” has been under-supported since 2006.