There is a reason why David Wright has been using the epic collapse of 2007 as a reason to hope that the Mets still have a chance. It is because that is about all they have left to hang on in regards to a trying to believe that they have a shot at making the playoffs.
The chances of the Mets making the playoffs are slim to none. In fact the Mets making the playoffs this season will go up there behind 2 other Great runs the Mets had in 1973 and 1969.
- The 1973 Mets had a run where on August 6, 1973 they were 10.5 games out and finished getting all the way to Game 7 of the World Series losing the final game to the Oakland Athletics.
- The 1969 Mets had a run where on August 13, 1969 they were 10.0 games out and finished getting all the way to Game 5 of the World Series winning the World Series against the Baltimore Orioles.
Since 2003 only 3 teams that were 5 or more games out on this date have finished making the playoffs. The 2007 Phillies which we all know too well about were 5 games out on this date and won the Division. The 2006 Twins who were 9.5 games out on this date and finished winning the Division and the 2004 Astros who were 5 games out of the Wildcard on this date and finished winning the Wildcard.
Can the Mets do it? Sure, but realistically their season is over.
|
8/6/2007 NL East
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | W | L | GB | |
| NYM | 63 | 48 | .568 | – |
| ATL | 59 | 53 | .527 | 4.5 |
| PHI | 58 | 53 | .523 | 5.0 |
| FLA | 52 | 60 | .464 | 11.5 |
| WSN | 51 | 61 | .455 | 12.5 |
|
10/1/2007 NL East
|
||||
| Tm | W | L | GB | |
| PHI | 89 | 73 | .549 | – |
| NYM | 88 | 74 | .543 | 1.0 |
| ATL | 84 | 78 | .519 | 5.0 |
| WSN | 73 | 89 | .451 | 16.0 |
| FLA | 71 | 91 | .438 | 18.0 |
|
8/6/2006 AL Central
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | W | L | GB | |
| DET | 75 | 36 | .676 | – |
| CHW | 65 | 44 | .596 | 9.0 |
| MIN | 65 | 45 | .591 | 9.5 |
| CLE | 47 | 63 | .427 | 27.5 |
| KCR | 38 | 73 | .342 | 37.0 |
|
10/1/2006 AL Central
|
||||
| Tm | W | L | GB | |
| MIN | 96 | 66 | .593 | – |
| DET | 95 | 67 | .586 | 1.0 |
| CHW | 90 | 72 | .556 | 6.0 |
| CLE | 78 | 84 | .481 | 18.0 |
| KCR | 62 | 100 | .383 | 34.0 |
|
8/6/2004 NL Wildcard
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | W | L | GB | |
| CHC | 60 | 49 | .550 | – |
| SDP | 59 | 50 | .541 | 1.0 |
| SFG | 59 | 52 | .532 | 2.0 |
| PHI | 57 | 52 | .523 | 3.0 |
| HOU | 55 | 54 | .505 | 5.0 |
|
10/3/2004 NL Wildcard
|
||||
| Tm | W | L | GB | |
| HOU | 92 | 70 | .568 | – |
| SFG | 91 | 71 | .562 | 1.0 |
| CHC | 89 | 73 | .549 | 3.0 |
| SDP | 87 | 75 | .537 | 5.0 |
| PHI | 86 | 76 | .531 | 6.0 |
16 comments
metsfan4decades
8/6/2010-1:47pm at 1:47 pm (UTC -4)
If most fans are ‘realistic’ enough to realize this, I’m sure the players are feeling it even more. Doesn’t bode well for this series this weekend and going forward.
I just can’t help thinking about Sep 2007. The body language of those guys was very telling. Loss after loss, losing ground in the standings day after day…and they all looked like the took the field each day thinking: ‘how are we gonna lose this one today’?
Kingman 26
8/6/2010-1:51pm at 1:51 pm (UTC -4)
The 69 Mets–get ready for this–from Aug 13 on–their last 50 games–were 38-11.
Now the real ridiculous stat—in games 142-160, a 19 game stretch, they had NINE shutouts!!
Kingman 26
8/6/2010-1:52pm at 1:52 pm (UTC -4)
38-11 in their last 49; even better!
GravediggerHebner
8/6/2010-1:57pm at 1:57 pm (UTC -4)
In 1969 the Mets had Gil Hodges and the infamous black cat. In 2010 the Mets have Jerry Manuel who is the infamous black cat. Yeah I said it.
njstuckintx
8/6/2010-2:02pm at 2:02 pm (UTC -4)
By black cat do you mean African American who exudes a sense a cool sophistication and debonaire?
GravediggerHebner
8/6/2010-2:09pm at 2:09 pm (UTC -4)
Woah dude. I just meant he was bad luck.
njstuckintx
8/6/2010-2:11pm at 2:11 pm (UTC -4)
Just checking. Thoughts of the guy from the heinekin commercials and the most interesting man alive came to mind at that statement.
And if being bunt-master-flex = bad luck, then yes, bad luck indeed.
GravediggerHebner
8/6/2010-2:22pm at 2:22 pm (UTC -4)
Now I’ve confused myself again. My use of the wink emoticon was to suggest that yes I did indeed use black cat the way you thought.
As I note below, it must be time for lunch.
GravediggerHebner
8/6/2010-1:55pm at 1:55 pm (UTC -4)
Whatever day it was recently when the Mets had 3 teams ahead of them in the division and 6 teams ahead of them in the wildcard was the day I unofficially folded my tent. I don’t officially fold it until mathematics tell me it is 100% impossible.
But this information, combined with the AmazinAvenue post the other day which was essentially “If the Braves do X, the Mets need to do Y” and all it’s relevant caveats, confirm that my unofficial folding was appropriate.
Mr North Jersey
8/6/2010-2:01pm at 2:01 pm (UTC -4)
“We just need a streak to get back in it,†Omar Minaya said. “We’ve had tough losses before and bounced back and the guys understand they have to play better to turn this around.â€
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/minaya_believes_amazin_can_still_G7yecowg7xPZhgmRRcmdGJ
Talk about stating the obvious.
njstuckintx
8/6/2010-1:58pm at 1:58 pm (UTC -4)
Cranky, err, Greinke wants out of KC… Hit up Walgreens for some Xanax, stat and start making some call, Omahhh!
GravediggerHebner
8/6/2010-2:03pm at 2:03 pm (UTC -4)
I’m going to attach a reply to this comment which is a cut and paste of a comment I made in a post 4 posts ago because I fear it’s getting lost and I think it might be interesting. It was a reply to Kingman who stated he was considering writing a post about the 2006 supporting cast and how the subsequent supporting casts don’t compare favorably.
GravediggerHebner
8/6/2010-2:04pm at 2:04 pm (UTC -4)
I imagine you won’t look at it through this prism (which is fine) and I know some of us, myself included, don’t fully understand how it works and thus how to use it, and I know some of us simply refuse to put an stock at all into it.
Having said that I just did a lot of math over at Fangraphs using their WAR numbers. I added up the totals from 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2010 even though 2010 is incomplete. I ignored 2009 for reasons are hope are obvious.
What I added up were the WAR of the top 4 OF, the top 5 IF and top 2 C from each year so this is just hitters (and their fielding which is incorporated) but omits pitchers entirely.
Of those positions I noted in the above paragraph the following is the total WAR of all of them, minus the total WAR of just Beltran, Wright & Reyes (for 2010 I used Pagan, Wright & Reyes), resulting in the sum total WAR of the remaining 8 hitters (i.e. the supporting cast).
2010
14.4 all
09.7 P,W&R
04.7 others
2008
31.4 all
20.9 B,W&R
10.5 others
2007
29.5 all
19.2 B,W&R
10.3 others
2006
32.4 all
18.1 B,W&R
14.3 others
So based on this “unique†method of trying to determine the contribution of the supporting cast the 2006 cast outdid any of the subsequent years. If there is any merit to the way I’ve done this at all it supports the idea that “the core†has been under-supported since 2006.
njstuckintx
8/6/2010-2:08pm at 2:08 pm (UTC -4)
other than the glaring P,W&R drop off for this year, it does put forth a case for your arguement. I wish you could determine how much they were relied upon from year to year. Like, 14.3 WAR, but only needed 18% of the time, where as 2007 would have a 10.3 WAR, but only needed 11% of the time.
GravediggerHebner
8/6/2010-2:20pm at 2:20 pm (UTC -4)
I’m already uncertain and confused as to whether I’m using WAR properly above. Add to that I don’t understand what you are getting at when you say “needed X% of the time.”
But in case this is related just doing the division on what I laid out above shows the core provided 56% of the total in 2006 so 44% came from “others” whereas in the other years the core provided between 63% and 67% thus less contribution from “others.”
In order to get at what I think you’re getting at one would probably have to use the entire WAR total for every player who played at all on the roster of each season, both pitchers and hitters, and then figure out the percentage from that.
But right now I’m going to have lunch.
njstuckintx
8/6/2010-2:26pm at 2:26 pm (UTC -4)
I guess what I was meaning, which again, may not have anything to do with how WAR is used, if this:
Does the supporting cast WAR take into consideration how much actual playing time they had? IE, 2007′s “other” WAR was less than 2006′s. But the “others” were utilized more in 2006 than 2007, so by relation they had less of an overall impact on the season.
You are probably right in how to extrude that information, but it’s friday and I have no authority to make anyone do work other than the underlings here at the office. So, just being curious, is all.