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Ok, so its pretty much a forgone conclusion that this season is just about over in regards to playoff hopes(barring a “historical comeback” as our own Mr. North Jersey put it). My question that I propose to you today is regarding how to handle the rest of the year. If you were Jerry Manual(keep the laughter to a minimum) what would you do. Let me lay out some of the scenery for you. You are not coming back to manage next season. You have been given some below average players to manage your time here but there are sure to be many firings this coming offseason. Now that you have that scenario in your head, onto my question for the day. Would you:
1) Play the kids. Start giving regular playing times for guys that are pretty much sure to be here next year. Mainly Fernando Martinez and Ruben Tejada. Sure you probably wont win as many games but you would be giving the organization a huge step in their future direction. You would do this of course by benching veteran players such as Luis Castillo and Jeff Francoeur, a combined 8 million dollars on the bench and not to mention the clubhouse “management” you will have to do coming from both of them.
2) Play the vets. The reality is you need a job next year and at the very least, the vets have a track record of success(or else they wouldnt be vets). Continue to play Castillo and Jeff with the intention of winning as many games as you could. This would give you the best looking resume you could possibly have given your time here and best shot at a job because lets face it, baseball is a results oriented business. The more wins you get, the better the chance you will find a job next year.
Now before you go one way or another, consider the other foot as well. If you go with the kids, think about how that would affect your job prospects coming into next year. The organization is not going to keep you, so do you look out for yourself? If you go with the vets, think about how you were so adamant on Jennry Mejia staying here and earning experience. Not that you really care how hypocritical you are but how does it look that you were putting your job on the line for Mejia to stay here and justify Fernando Martinez sitting on the bench?
I am in no way a Jerry supporter and I wish him well with another organization. I know what I would do as a FAN of this organization because I will be back here next year, what would you do if you werent? Thats the Jerry Dilema…thoughts?
121 comments
Kingman 26
8/10/2010-8:55am at 8:55 am (UTC -4)
Play the kids! The vets have gotten you into this mess. If you play the kids and they do well, it almost certainly will not help your job here, but it very well might help you get a job elsewhere in the future, if you handle them well and they develop nicely.
Also, I say most respectfully, “dilema” is spelled “dilemma.” Sorry if this is not something I should have mentioned, but thought you might want to fix it…
dirtysanchez
8/10/2010-9:03am at 9:03 am (UTC -4)
have not had my coffee yet when i wrote this lol…thanks king
Kingman 26
8/10/2010-9:18am at 9:18 am (UTC -4)
No problem sir!
I was on cup three already!
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-8:57am at 8:57 am (UTC -4)
you dont keep a manager once you decide in your head, he wont be coming back next season. Its a conflict of interest. The Mets need a manager who will play the guys we are using next season, not the guys that are goners.
Its absoltely ridiculous that Jeff Francouer walked into the managers office after saying it would be a platoon, asked for more playing, and got it over one of our top prospects…
Kingman 26
8/10/2010-9:02am at 9:02 am (UTC -4)
Your 2nd paragraph is SO right on the money.
Jerry being Jerry—nice and weak.
dirtysanchez
8/10/2010-9:07am at 9:07 am (UTC -4)
but is he being “weak” or is he trying to go with guys who stand a better chance at winning than lets say fernando martinez?
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-9:14am at 9:14 am (UTC -4)
they need to see what F-Mart can do and whether he falls into this team’s long term plans. That is more important than keeping Frenchy happy.
Francouer has gotten 4 months of playing time and been awful. I dont see why F-Mart doesnt deserve to at least get a few weeks to see if he’s on par or better.
dirtysanchez
8/10/2010-9:17am at 9:17 am (UTC -4)
My question is…WHO needs to see what fmart can do? The Mets or Jerry?
Jerry isnt going to be around next year and if fmart has not inspired much confidence that he will win games for him than I can understand jerry playing frenchy in order to win more games. There is not evidence that fmart is an improvement over jeff and while the Mets im sure want fmart playing over jeff, its Jerrys call. The man is trying to win ballgames at this point to get a job next year, the hell does he care about fmarts development at this point?
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-9:35am at 9:35 am (UTC -4)
which is why Jerry should be fired b/c he is putting his managerial future over the best interests of the team.
sure Jerry might not trust F-Mart but how will you ever find out, if he doesnt play on a regular basis?
Kingman 26
8/10/2010-9:21am at 9:21 am (UTC -4)
Well, based on Frenchy’s year, and much of his career, I would HOPE that Jerry is smart enough to see what a crappy player Frenchy is offensively!
Again, it’s largely the vets who have him on the way out; maybe the kids could make him look good for his last 51 games as Met manager.
dirtysanchez
8/10/2010-9:24am at 9:24 am (UTC -4)
would you play the kids if you were in jerrys shoes? Not knowing if they can make him look good? Or play the vets who have a track record against major league pitching in hopes they make you look good? And to clarify, im using looking good meaning end of the season record
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-9:31am at 9:31 am (UTC -4)
Luis Castillo and Jeff Francouer are the 2 primary reasons why this team is as bad as they are. both are the worst offensive players at their position.
if Jerry doesnt realize that, then he has no business managing in baseball…
njstuckintx
8/10/2010-9:39am at 9:39 am (UTC -4)
Oh, he prob. realizes it. But some rookie isn’t coming into his office demanding more playing time. It’s all speculation, but I think he’s playing them to help him win more games (which it isn’t) and to keep them happy, aka out of his office.
And yes, canning Manuel would cut the BS and get the kids some time.
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-9:48am at 9:48 am (UTC -4)
how do we know F-Mart doesnt yield more wins than Francouer unless he plays.
i just dont understand what there is to gain by keeping manuel around besides this ridiculous fear that the interim manager will be given the permanent job…
njstuckintx
8/10/2010-9:52am at 9:52 am (UTC -4)
We don’t. I was just going with what I think may be rolling around in Jerry’s skull.
dirtysanchez
8/10/2010-9:59am at 9:59 am (UTC -4)
lol..thanks nj for reading the piece ;p
njstuckintx
8/10/2010-9:10am at 9:10 am (UTC -4)
What do they call that when you know you are a goner? Mailing it in? Not sure the term is correct. Just riding out the storm? Just cashing the check? Playing for the next gig? I dunno, some menagerie of those.
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-9:05am at 9:05 am (UTC -4)
and i dont buy the fact that a player will turn down a team b/c the previous interim manager sat underperforming veterans when the season was over.
IF francouer was playing well, i would understand but he is one of the worst RF in the NL this season. The mets job is to play the guys who will best contribute for next season, not so Francouer can maybe get hot and get a better contract for next season. You dont play a guy with a .241 BA .296 OBP and .679 OPS, over your top prospect.
dirtysanchez
8/10/2010-9:09am at 9:09 am (UTC -4)
a top prospect that finished with a .179 average last year when he was up here?
Manuel doesnt have many choices in this but dont sit here and say that fmart is leagues ahead of jeff either because that is no evidence to the contrary.
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-9:17am at 9:17 am (UTC -4)
so if F-mart isnt ready you play Francouer again but how will you ever know what you have in F-Mart if he doesnt play everyday?
dirtysanchez
8/10/2010-9:20am at 9:20 am (UTC -4)
Why should jerry care…again no evidence that fmart is a better shot than frenchy. Jerry is playing the “sure” hand because jeff has a track record up here, fmart does not. Jerry knows he is gone, why bother with getting fmart playing time when he is an unknown commodity. To Jerry im sure the risk/reward of playing jeff is better than playing fmart.
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-9:29am at 9:29 am (UTC -4)
how can you honestly say Francouer is a better option when F-mart hasnt even played and Francouer is playing as bad as he is.
dirtysanchez
8/10/2010-9:34am at 9:34 am (UTC -4)
Oleo…i agree with you as a fan that he should be playing fmart full time at this point to see what he’s got.
My question is more about what would jerry do since he does not have the luxury of having no accountability for playtime as we(fans) do. If im looking for a job and a winning record increases my chance at getting a job, why would i put my faith in an unproven kid when i can go with a vet who is not having a good year but has a track record of hitting major league pitching…
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-9:41am at 9:41 am (UTC -4)
i understand you are talking from Jerry’s point from Jerry’s point of view which is why he should be fired.
the Mets need to showcase their best prospect as the playoffs are out of reach, whether it is to for a future trade (given our surplus of OF prospects) or to see if he is ready for next season
dirtysanchez
8/10/2010-9:59am at 9:59 am (UTC -4)
If he keeps playing frenchy over fmart and the mets dont do anything about it than either the mets dont feel its important or they are failing jerrys dare to fire him as much as they have failed olivers dare to fire him. Mets dont respond well i guess to subtle threats and dares…
ceetar
8/10/2010-10:04am at 10:04 am (UTC -4)
Maybe they feel a platoon situation makes him look better than just straight development against everyone. Inflates his overall numbers a bit, if they’re shopping him, which is possible given Bay/Beltran/Pagan.
dirtysanchez
8/10/2010-10:07am at 10:07 am (UTC -4)
its possible…if i were omar though, id be shopping his arm and D over his offense.
trs86
8/10/2010-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
Yup, very possible that Fmart nor Frenchy are in the future plans so platooning them boost both players stats for trades now or in the future for Fmart.
njstuckintx
8/10/2010-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
I never really thought of Omar being and Ice to Eskimos kind of guy, which he’ll have to be to get something for Frenchy.
trs86
8/10/2010-10:21am at 10:21 am (UTC -4)
NJTX, do me a favor and go look at the Rays roster. They have Willy Aybar as starting DH and Kapler (.207 .287 .289 .576) as their main bat off the bench. Frenchy’s splits show him to be a very useful hitter off the bench.
njstuckintx
8/10/2010-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
You are trying to tell me that Tampa Bay is really going to be interested in a guy who’s got a .182 .250 .345 .595 line for the past 28 days is more desirable then Kapler? Maybe based only on D or as a pinch hitter off (.000 .167 .000 .167 as a pinch hitter (only 9 ABs), if i’m reading the stats correctly). Omar is going to have to find someone very desperate and get his best saleman suit on for that sales pitch.
ceetar
8/10/2010-9:17am at 9:17 am (UTC -4)
If he was capable of making the right decision here, maybe he wouldn’t be getting fired..just saying.
No reason to curry favor with the organization or fans at this point. Put the guys on the field that have the best shot to win. Castillo, Frenchy against lefties until Bay is back. Beltran. Frankie on the road.
And if you’re capable of it, get them to play hard. get them to not quit like last year. Play spoiler, attract national attention “Did you see the Mets gut out a victory against the Rockies last night?” type stuff. This gets you recognized and respected in a way. It could help your resume. As could at least getting your Mets tenure over .500.
metsfan4decades
8/10/2010-9:17am at 9:17 am (UTC -4)
I don’t think it’s as cut and dried as picking either scenario #1 or #2.
I think Jerry will probably use whatever 9 guys give him the best chance of winning. Whether he thinks that the vets, the kids or a combo of both…..that’s what I believe he is doing and will continue to do.
dirtysanchez
8/10/2010-9:22am at 9:22 am (UTC -4)
its not as cut and dry in an everyday point of view but its a philosophy choice. Play youth over vet or play vet over youth. Not saying he will never use fmart again but im just saying, which one would he use more of hence following his philosophy about what to do on his way out.
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-9:26am at 9:26 am (UTC -4)
i just dont understand how they can know Frenchy is a better option unless they play F-mart and let him see what he can do.
metsfan4decades
8/10/2010-9:30am at 9:30 am (UTC -4)
You don’t know right now who might be the better option but in Jerry’s world, I still believe he’s going to use whoever he thinks gives him the best shot at winning, no matter how he comes to that conclusion…..
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-9:32am at 9:32 am (UTC -4)
and that is why jerry should be fired, b/c his opinion is wrong.
dirtysanchez
8/10/2010-9:34am at 9:34 am (UTC -4)
and he will….at the end of the season.
ceetar
8/10/2010-9:41am at 9:41 am (UTC -4)
Don’t know why we’re waiting. Even if it’s only a miracle shot, it’s easier accomplished with Alex Cora at the helm.
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-9:43am at 9:43 am (UTC -4)
I know the Mets WILL keep him for the duration but he SHOULD be fired due to the fact that he is not doing what is best for the organization.
i don’t understand why you don’t see this…
dirtysanchez
8/10/2010-9:57am at 9:57 am (UTC -4)
I do see this…what i dont understand is why doesnt the Mets Front Office see this?
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
ah see now that makes more sense…
but we all know Omar and Wilpons are clueless on inseason moves so that is pretty much the answer
trs86
8/10/2010-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)
I still love how we bloggers have all the right answers but people who do it for a living are clueless. Wow we are full of ourselves.
Things are never cut and dry in baseball.
dirtysanchez
8/10/2010-11:17am at 11:17 am (UTC -4)
We are just stating an opinion/observation…who cares if its actually right/wrong. We have no control over the mets front office…
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-12:29pm at 12:29 pm (UTC -4)
the thing is we shouldnt make excuses for a completely inept organization.
besides DFA Cora, pretty much every move they have made has been completely illogical.
trs86
8/10/2010-10:15am at 10:15 am (UTC -4)
Perhaps what is best for the organization is to continue to play Frenchy in hopes of trading him between now and the waiver deadline?
If the Mets believed that Manuel was hurting their chances for the future he would already be fired. In other words if Omar/Wilpons believed that Fmart had to start immediately and Frenchy had to be benched then that is what would be happening.
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
well is it possible that the Mets organizational beliefs are wrong?
trs86
8/10/2010-10:18am at 10:18 am (UTC -4)
Sure. But again it’s not cut and dry.
Is that 3 weeks of development for Fmart more important than the prospect that Frenchy may bring in?
trs86
8/10/2010-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
Couple that with the 1M more they save.
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
if Frenchy had trade value, you would think he would have been traded by now but then again the Mets don’t make logical decisions.
if the Mets were playing Frenchy to try and trade i can accept that but that makes too much sense for Omar to do…
trs86
8/10/2010-10:12am at 10:12 am (UTC -4)
Agreed 4D. I kept looking for #3. A scenario where everyone plays and everyone has the best chance to succeed. A place where Frenchy gets most of the LH, especially power LH, and Fmart gets most of the RH especially the ones you know Frenchy will struggle against. In the middle of that are a few games where Frenchy can start against some RH and Fmart can start against some LH.
saltygary
8/10/2010-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
I wouldn’t be surprised if Jerry is being told who to start more often by the front office. They would have dfa’d Castillo or Ollie by now if they didn’t think there was some value left. You start Castillo to show he still has gas left in the tank and get something back for him in the off season. I dont even want to bother on elaborating on Ollie.
And BTW I was away last week, it was great to see the FO cut Cora so they still have an ounce of sense. It was also cool to see Prismo post some of our opinions on Cora’s signings. You guys need to do more of that. It’s great to see how fast the game can change the fan opinions.
trs86
8/10/2010-10:28am at 10:28 am (UTC -4)
Interesting thing on the Cora opinions are that most of them were correct. The signing basically had no impact at all.
GravediggerHebner
8/10/2010-11:38am at 11:38 am (UTC -4)
I may be misunderstanding the premise but what I took from the post was this: If _I_ were Jerry Manuel, reasonably certain I’m not coming back as the manager of this team in 2011, would I play the kids or play the veterans and why?
If I were Jerry Manuel I would like to think I might get another MLB manager job someday, hopefully soon. So I would play the kids because playing the kids is what is best for the organization and I think any organization that might consider hiring me in the future would prefer if I were unselfish and did what was best for them. Bonus that it also happens to be what’s best for me if I just stop and think about it for a minute.
metsfan4decades
8/10/2010-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
LOL….this is Jerry we’re all talking about.
He’s gonna go with his ‘gut’, the hot hand, the left/righty match-ups, whatever it is that he thinks gives him the best shot at winning. I think the only reason he SAID he’d played Tejada over Castillo is his eyes were telling him Castillo’s defense was costing the team. I have no idea what he thinks if FMart……
He hasn’t deviated much from that all season and I’m not sure he will now. I’m not even sure he believes it’s a foregone conclusion he’ll be fired, as we all do…..
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-12:04pm at 12:04 pm (UTC -4)
the problem is jerry’s gut is most likely wrong.
metsfan4decades
8/10/2010-12:09pm at 12:09 pm (UTC -4)
Well, hard to argue that point…..
youngvalerawest
8/10/2010-1:20pm at 1:20 pm (UTC -4)
I think the Fmart issue is only an issue until Bay comes back.
stickguy
8/10/2010-12:58pm at 12:58 pm (UTC -4)
I like “what if” games, although it scares me to try and get into Jerry’s head.
so, I would probably try to use all the guys as best as possible to win games. You know, exactly what he was supposed to be doing all year! And if the boss gave specific orders, I would follow them.
But, I am not sure that Jerry knows he is gone. With the odd workings of the met FO, he may think there is still a possibility he returns.
tkfj2
8/10/2010-1:08pm at 1:08 pm (UTC -4)
Apparently Adam Schein believes that Beltran should no longer be an everyday starter, and not only that but he should platoon with Jeff Francouer. Carlos has had a rough start, but there is no way I would go that far at this point. We need to get these idiots off of SNY.
Especially after this comes out……http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2010/08/07/worst-everyday-player-in-baseball/
ceetar
8/10/2010-1:19pm at 1:19 pm (UTC -4)
Did he believe this of Mark Texiera after a similiar amount of games? how about twice as many games?
youngvalerawest
8/10/2010-1:21pm at 1:21 pm (UTC -4)
That’s apples and oranges because Texeira does not have a serious degenerative knee condition and is historically a slow starter anyway.
I’m not saying Beltran is done (though it wouldn’t shock me) but I think your analogy is poor.
ceetar
8/10/2010-1:26pm at 1:26 pm (UTC -4)
Well, I suppose you could believe Beltran was lying. But if he’s not in pain as he points out that he’s not, why shouldn’t I believe, much like fans believed Tex would rise to his career norms, that Beltran would do the same?
ceetar
8/10/2010-1:26pm at 1:26 pm (UTC -4)
my tense in that statement is very screwed up. but you get the idea.
youngvalerawest
8/10/2010-1:50pm at 1:50 pm (UTC -4)
the guy is wearing a knee brace, for crying out loud.
ceetar
8/10/2010-1:52pm at 1:52 pm (UTC -4)
and that means he sucks?
youngvalerawest
8/10/2010-1:59pm at 1:59 pm (UTC -4)
No. It means that it would not be surprising if his performance declines significantly from his previous seasons.
It is certainly reasonable justification to doubt whether he will reclaim his previous form.
You don’t see that? Or do you just not want to see that?
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-2:54pm at 2:54 pm (UTC -4)
i think your last sentence speaks volumes…
Kingman 26
8/10/2010-2:00pm at 2:00 pm (UTC -4)
Even if he is not in PAIN, the BRACE he is wearing surely might slow him down, limit his freedom of movement, and subconsciously affect what he is doing.
ceetar
8/10/2010-2:01pm at 2:01 pm (UTC -4)
I find it hard to believe that a mere brace is going to suddenly keep him from ever properly swing a bat at a baseball the way he used to.
If you want to argue that his range and speed are more brace and less rust, that’s one thing, but his swing? seems unlikely to me.
youngvalerawest
8/10/2010-2:09pm at 2:09 pm (UTC -4)
Your legs are involved in your swing, no?
Put a knee brace on and tell me your mobility is not impaired.
Kingman 26
8/10/2010-2:10pm at 2:10 pm (UTC -4)
First off, a “mere” brace probably affects everything he does on a field.
Second of all, who said he’ll never be the same again?
I am just refuting the idiocy of Schein, who, if he was a commenter here, would probably rank about 37th in terms of baseball knowledge.
ceetar
8/10/2010-2:12pm at 2:12 pm (UTC -4)
He’s a professional, talented hitter. Hitters swings are always changing and adjusting. I don’t see it much different than gaining 20lbs of muscles or any other change. You adjust to the game and get into a routine with your swing. it’s a comfort and a timing thing. I don’t see Beltran suddenly getting beat because his batspeed is slower or anything that would suggest a mechanical thing that’s just inhibiting him. He still hits the ball, hard on occasion, but mostly just not cleanly. timing.
Kingman 26
8/10/2010-2:13pm at 2:13 pm (UTC -4)
What Wanny said.
A power hitter is of course going to hugely rely on his legs to generate power.
ceetar
8/10/2010-2:14pm at 2:14 pm (UTC -4)
Kingman: YVW here is questioning my comparison to Texiera. I maintain that Schein is an idiot, and that just like Mark, Carlos will be alright, it’s still quite early in terms of total AB, he realizes that, which is why he’s begging to play, and Manuel wants to sit him..
Kingman 26
8/10/2010-3:08pm at 3:08 pm (UTC -4)
I agree with all of this, except that I definitely think that Beltran’s brace/situation clearly are affecting his play since he has returned.
The Tex comparison really is off. Tex always starts slow, and was not coming off major surgery and is not wearing a brace.
Kingman 26
8/10/2010-1:58pm at 1:58 pm (UTC -4)
Ah, Adam Schein.
A guy whose thoughts are maybe about 59 levels below Olney/Heyman/Rosenthal/Klapisch in terms of relevance and validity.
If Schein says it, chances are excellent it’s really, really stupid. And said loudly in an annoying tone.
But it’s amazing that he can make this judgment after 90 PA when the guy missed most of the last year and a half.
I miss the days when there were only a few dozen sports guys on TV and for the most part they all really knew what the hell they were talking about.
youngvalerawest
8/10/2010-1:18pm at 1:18 pm (UTC -4)
I have a hard time believing any manager would pack it in before being mathematically eliminated, especially one that is playing for his next job.
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-2:40pm at 2:40 pm (UTC -4)
if F-Mart replacing Francouer is an indication of packing it in then i guess we should start calling him Alex Escobar, because if the worst offensive RF in the NL is an upgrade over your top OF prospect then that says a lot about Mr Martinez.
trs86
8/10/2010-2:42pm at 2:42 pm (UTC -4)
Oleo you are not looking at matchups though. Frenchy has been fine vs LH.
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-2:48pm at 2:48 pm (UTC -4)
not lately though. besides those 2 HR, he’s been really bad…
youngvalerawest
8/10/2010-3:19pm at 3:19 pm (UTC -4)
From Jerry’s perspective playing the questionable kids is probably packing it in. Afterall, FMart in AAA wasn’t much better than Frenchy in MLB.
trs86
8/10/2010-3:21pm at 3:21 pm (UTC -4)
That’s relative too I guess. Based on a small sample he had been doing much better of late.
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-2:37pm at 2:37 pm (UTC -4)
i think its pretty reasonable to believe Beltran will never be the same. Obviously its just speculation but anytime you permanently damage something like your knee there are bound to serious repercussions.
trs86
8/10/2010-2:39pm at 2:39 pm (UTC -4)
Same is relative as well. Which Beltran are we talking about? The one that was the 25HR high steals guy? The one that was the 40 HR lower steals guy? The one that was high average low HR average steals guy?
I think he can get to the 3rd one.
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-2:44pm at 2:44 pm (UTC -4)
i think we will see the Beltran of 2005 just with only a few SB.
trs86
8/10/2010-2:49pm at 2:49 pm (UTC -4)
Wow well that’s sliding back a bit huh?
Why would he be that much worse than the Beltran that left, who had knee injuries and needed surgery?
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-2:52pm at 2:52 pm (UTC -4)
b/c his knee is now permanently damaged, plus I dont think he attempts many SB as he knows he has lost a step and does not want to risk the SB% record.
trs86
8/10/2010-2:53pm at 2:53 pm (UTC -4)
And the knee was not permanently damaged in early 2009?
As for the SB record you have got to be kidding me. LOL.
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-2:58pm at 2:58 pm (UTC -4)
lol is it really that hard to believe? lets see how many SB he finishes off with this season. I’ll put the over/under at 3.
i expect .265 15-18 HR and 65-75 RBI with about 5-10 SB next season…i also think he has gotta move to RF, at least b/c of Pagan.
trs86
8/10/2010-3:03pm at 3:03 pm (UTC -4)
Again, why the huge drop off in BA? Why should we expect number that much different than early 2009? His knee was injured then too.
As for steals, not sure it has anything to do with the record and everything to do with fear of injury or decreased speed.
trs86
8/10/2010-3:04pm at 3:04 pm (UTC -4)
I expect .285, 15, 90 with about 15 steals.
trs86
8/10/2010-3:06pm at 3:06 pm (UTC -4)
More importantly I expect
.360-370 OBP
.850 OPS.
ceetar
8/10/2010-3:06pm at 3:06 pm (UTC -4)
Isn’t their math to suggest that without a really high success rate, SB are detrimental? I don’t necessarily agree, just saying.
Also, the few times he does bunt, isn’t it usually in those bunting situations where stats suggest it may actually be helpful? Hmm..I don’t know if this is all true or not, but i’m curious now. Anyone know Beltran’s view on Sabermetrics?
whataputz
8/10/2010-3:07pm at 3:07 pm (UTC -4)
Let the man freaking play. I think Beltran deserves to get the rest of this season to get going until you label him totally finished. Yes he’s older, yeah he has a knee brace, but he’s played 20 games and should have been in the minors longer. The team is done this year anyway. Let Beltran continue to work out the kinks and if he gets no better when the season is done then by all means go crazy and call him finished.
You have nothing to lose by playing him. He is owed a ton of money and is probably going to be here next year. The only way he can get traded is if he can get prove he still has something is by playing.
And .265 15-18 hr 65-75 rbi is not terrible if Pagan keeps this up and Bay plays better, which I think he will. A lot of teams don’t have 3 really good outfielders.
Beltran had been a great Met until he went down, so I think he deserves some benefit of the doubt. Get off his a** already and let him try to prove he still has it. Sure he stunk it up in Philly but other Mets stunk it up too.
Reyes sucked when he came back at first, I know he is younger, but I’m just saying it takes a while to adjust.
I’m not promising he will be back to his old self, but can the man play for 2 months before you call him finished.
trs86
8/10/2010-3:10pm at 3:10 pm (UTC -4)
Not sure Oleo is saying he is finished. Just disagree on what to expect. I expect a little better BA and a few more steals. Nothing like 2006 but better than 2005.
As for letting him play, I think he has played about the right amount of games since coming back. Not sure resting one more day to give him 2 days off is a terrible idea.
Kingman 26
8/10/2010-3:12pm at 3:12 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, but what do you think of David Wright and Jay-Z??
oleosmirf
8/10/2010-3:12pm at 3:12 pm (UTC -4)
b/c i dont see a 34 year old with permanently damaged knees being the same player he was even last season, nor do i see him playing the season healthy.
i do agree that his OBP will continue to be similar to his career I just think the power is going to be gone forever. maybe he gets 20-22 but I don’t see it.
i hope i’m wrong though…
trs86
8/10/2010-3:14pm at 3:14 pm (UTC -4)
Oleo you are not getting it. His knees are no worse and actually should be better than they were early 2009.
whataputz
8/10/2010-3:17pm at 3:17 pm (UTC -4)
Listen, all Jay-Z does is talk about Jay-Z. I get it your Jay-Z you’re the tits. I just don’t think he’s that great. His sound is very 1 dimensional. He can’t really do a variety. For example Lil Wayne can do slow songs, he can do party songs, he can have deep lyrics, he can have stupid lyrics about getting money, he can sound happy in a song, sad in a song, he can do alot of variety, he can do rock/rap. Jay-z can do one thing. That’s relatively fast paced getting money-esqu music. That’s why I’m not so hot on Jay-Z.
Wright is a good player, but not god. You here people talk about trading Reyes, but never Wright, and it’s bs, because if he was an ugly guy, it might be a whole other story.
trs86
8/10/2010-3:20pm at 3:20 pm (UTC -4)
You still don’t get it. It’s not personal when someone discusses trading Reyes over Wright. It also has to do with contract status, health status, durability…
whataputz
8/10/2010-3:23pm at 3:23 pm (UTC -4)
Alright without getting into it like last night. This is my opinion:
Wright is replaceable, Reyes is not.
From a pure line-up standpoint this is even more true. Forget he plays 3b, forget Reyes plays SS, you can find a plethora of player with 25+ hr, .300 capabilities, you can find very little player with 15+ hr, .280+, 50+ sb capabilities.
Agree, disagree, that’s my gripe.
trs86
8/10/2010-3:36pm at 3:36 pm (UTC -4)
Can you find a .280 .320 .416 .736 hitter for lead off? With 21 steals?
How about one with a :.299 .330 .425 .755 and 2 steals since the ASB?
Can you find one that has a career: .248 .307 .378 .685 in September?
Again, contract, health, durability also factor in the discussion.
youngvalerawest
8/10/2010-3:42pm at 3:42 pm (UTC -4)
I’m with TRS. Wright is more than a .300 25 HR guy. He is durable, a better than average fielder, a near .400 OBP guy and more importantly, the face of the franchise.
Reyes took a major step forward as a leadoff hitter in 2005 when he boosted his OBP to .354 but hasn’t taken another step forward since then. And now his health is apparently questionable again after several years of durability. I hope he hasn’t peaked yet but it sure seems as though he has.
whataputz
8/10/2010-3:58pm at 3:58 pm (UTC -4)
He has was hurt coming into the year and got hurt midway through the year. Yes his health is the problem.
Just look at his numbers 05-08. Phenominal numbers especially from ’06-’08. In ’09 he had 11 steals in 31 games. Yes this year his numbers are down. But he has been banged up.
His capabilities are .280+m he’s pretty much done that all his career, when he was healthy in that 05-08 stretch his worst steal total was 56! He steals 60+ bases and hits around 15 hr’s! That is insanely good! Outside of Crawford, maybe Hanley minus some steals, who else in the majors can do that? Ichiro is similar, less power though. And too boot he plays SS. Arguably the most important D position.
Wright in his best years is an average around .310, about 28-30 hr’s, that is very very good. Awesome! But plenty of guys can do similar things! Or can hit more hr’s but a little lower ba. He is a middle of the order guy, a clean-up hitter, many cleanup hitters in the majors put up similar numbers.
Crawford, Ichiro, what other lead-off hitters do what Reyes does? As Wright gets older his plate approach is getting scary. He often will stand way too far out for rediculous amounts of time, his mechanics change monthly, his swing is often too long and his k’s are going up. He used to be a 2 strike hitter, now his approach is totally new. It’s not like he has been hurt, but his numbers have gotten worse, and so has his approach. 09, ’10 Wright, is not the same guy as ’06, ’07 Wright.
Yeah Reyes has been hurt, but when he is healthy he has played like himself. In ’09 he was normal reyes, but he got hurt. In ’10 he was banged up and at the same time asked to do something has never done and bat 3rd. since mid May his numbers has been back to the old reyes. The injury in the middle of the season was a slight hickup, but he is back to being Reyes. His steals will go up. With all the chaos of this season reyes will still end up with around 35 steals.
Reyes’ issues are health, Wright’s are on field play.
trs86
8/10/2010-4:28pm at 4:28 pm (UTC -4)
Reyes 2nd half of this year.
2 steals and .299 .330 .425 .755 line.
Again, Reyes is a very good player but because of contract, health, and durability I view him as more tradeable.
Why do you also ignore fact that Wright hits a high amount of doubles as well as steals more bases than most middle of the order hitters?
Kingman 26
8/10/2010-4:36pm at 4:36 pm (UTC -4)
LOL! Putz, I was joking, but you make some good points about Jay-Z. However, I think a good listen to The Blueprint (the first one, not 2 or 3) might change your mind a bit.
American Gangster also has some more diversity too.
As for Wright, your mind is pretty closed, but Reyes, like it or not, is injury prone; Wright isn’t. Reyes’ mind clearly wanders. Wright’s doesn’t.
And as an extremely dedicated heterosexual who likes Jon Niese despite his face, I must say that Wright’s looks really could not mean less to me.
I get it, you don’t like him very much.
But you should; with the right supporting cast, he’s a near-MVP.
Now, it is possible that the Cain beaning is why he stands 80 feet from the plate now, and maybe he will never be as good as the 2006–2008 Wright again. But he is still really good.
Too early to see if Reyes can recover the 2006–2008 Reyes. Let’s hope he can. If the recent stories about him being unprepared and slacking on pre-game work are true, that’s inexcusable and awful.
youngvalerawest
8/10/2010-4:36pm at 4:36 pm (UTC -4)
Reyes is a dynamic player. But he is hardly a perfect player on the field and is probably not an ideal leadoff hitter, though he is still a good and effective one.
a .350 OBP is good. But it is not top notch for a leadoff hitter.
And Reyes like Wright and most other players is very streaky.
Stolen bases are fine and dandy but I could sacrifice some of them for a few more times on base.
whataputz
8/10/2010-5:29pm at 5:29 pm (UTC -4)
Trs, you give me second half stats, you’re aware of Wrights 2nd half average right?
I don’t really factor Wrights steals, because he is a middle of the order hitter, a clean-up hitter, and his job is to get runs in. It’s a nice intangible, but it’s really not that big of a deal that he steals some bags.
youngvalerawest
8/10/2010-3:23pm at 3:23 pm (UTC -4)
His knees are no worse? Paging Dr. TRS, paging Dr. TRS.
Anyway, playing with a knee brace probably limits his mobility significantly. This is more of a concern than whether his knee is damaged as badly as it was before.
His knee surgery did not repair or reverse the degenerative condition. His knee surgery, according to him anyway, was just to clean it out.
trs86
8/10/2010-3:38pm at 3:38 pm (UTC -4)
Wanny what happen that his knees would be significantly worse than early 2009? He had those issues then too. He had to quit playing because they became too painful.
We could assume they are worse but what would we have to base that on?
youngvalerawest
8/10/2010-3:46pm at 3:46 pm (UTC -4)
His condition is degenerative and has apparently not been addressed other than through rest.
The rest may have helped with the pain for now but it has not solved the problem.
In any event, the need to play with a knee brace is not just an indication of an unhealthy knee in and of itself, but will also limit his ability to use his leg.
If you think limitations on one’s legs can’t inhibit a player’s performance at the plate, on the bases and in the field then we’ll have to agree to disagree.
trs86
8/10/2010-3:49pm at 3:49 pm (UTC -4)
Never said the kneebrace would not affect things. Just saying I see no reason that he can’t return to something more similar to the high BA, OBP low HR guy instead of the low average low OBP guy. I think that 2009 Beltran showed an increase in plate awareness.
trs86
8/10/2010-3:49pm at 3:49 pm (UTC -4)
That being said I am on every record saying I want him traded because you can’t trust his production.
saltygary
8/10/2010-3:43pm at 3:43 pm (UTC -4)
This is a ESPN Insider piece from blog writer Jason Grey:
If any of the 2010 draft picks struggle in their professional debut, they should take note of New York Mets first baseman Ike Davis, who illustrated that he was going to be starting in the big leagues within two years by … hitting just .256 with no homers in 215 short-season at-bats after signing in 2008. Not exactly the start you want.
“I was like, ‘I don’t know if I’m going to be a professional baseball player anymore,’” said Davis. “I thought I was a good hitter and could hit for power, and I went to short-season and didn’t hit a homer. I just had a horrible two months. I was really helpless. The offseason was a good thing because I got a chance to regroup and get my confidence back.”
Ike Davis
Jim Leary/Icon SMIWe do know this about Ike Davis: He has legit major league home run power.
To be fair, Brooklyn’s MCU Park (in the New York-Penn League) is not an easy park for lefties to hit homers. But I often talk about the importance of hitters having the capability to make continual adjustments, which is necessary to have consistent success, and it was a good sign that Davis was able to bounce back the next season.
I admit Davis has had a little more success than I expected him to in his first exposure to big league pitching this season. I freely admit you could have made good money off me in the spring betting that Davis would out-produce Justin Smoak. That said, Davis himself is quick to temper his own performance, which includes a .253 average and 15 homers.
“Well, I’m hitting .250,” said Davis. “I’m not hitting .340 with 35 homers, but I’m working hard and battling up there. I think as far as .250s go, it’s been a good .250. I’m not exactly happy with it, but I’m not totally upset with myself. I expect to hit higher and do better, but I can’t complain. It’s my first year and I’m learning a lot of things. All I’m really working on right now is just driving the ball more consistently. That’s it.”
The book on Davis entering this season was that he was a very good fastball hitter, but that the timing issues in his swing because of the way he drops his hands as he loads could potentially be exploited. Also, it was noted he also might struggle against southpaws. The scouting reports told opposing pitchers to stay away from fastballs and try to get him to expand the strike zone.
“For some reason, they knew I hit the fastball pretty well, so I got a steady diet of off-speed [pitches] from the get-go,” said Davis. “They try to stay away from the middle of the plate. I don’t think I see 2-0 fastballs as much as other guys, and someone told me I see a lot less than other people on the team. I just have to deal with it.”
It’s worth noting that, according to Baseball Info Solutions, only Pablo Sandoval has seen more pitches outside the strike zone this season, which has helped contribute to Davis’ lofty (10 percent) walk rate. Davis has a .380 batting average on balls in play against left-handed pitching, which makes his production against them seem better than it has been. Southpaws who can bury a good breaking ball low have given him trouble, as have pitchers who can jam him on the inner half and tie up his hands. Davis has been trying to work on cutting out some of the excess movement in his swing to try to be less susceptible to problems there.
“A lot of people do different, weird things in their swing,” said Davis. “I drop my hands, and other guys do different things with their hands. I’ve worked on not [dropping them] so much, making it shorter so I can see the ball a little bit longer and not be so long. But I’m not going to change it too much. I just need to find more consistent timing.”
For now, Davis, currently owned in 30 percent of ESPN standards leagues, is best used in a spot-start capacity against right-handers in mixed leagues with daily transactions, or obviously as a full-time option in NL-only play. But he has shown the capability to make adjustments, which should give him at least a chance to be a decent everyday starter in mixed leagues next year, given his power. He definitely has progressed faster than I initially thought he would.
saltygary
8/10/2010-3:43pm at 3:43 pm (UTC -4)
Jason Grey is a graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau’s Scout Development Program, and among his wins in national competitions are two Tout Wars titles, and a second LABR title in 2009.
trs86
8/10/2010-3:52pm at 3:52 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks Salty.
metsfan4decades
8/10/2010-4:45pm at 4:45 pm (UTC -4)
On another note….did you see tonight’s lineup? Looking at the calculations someone else did, this is probably the ‘cheapest’ lineup any ML team is fielding right now.
SS Reyes – 9 million
RF FMart – league minimum pro-rated
CF Pagan – 1.5 million
3B Wright – 10 million
1B Ike – league minimum
LF Carter – league minimum
C Thole – league minimum
2B Tejada – league minimum
P Pelf – $500 K
trs86
8/10/2010-4:48pm at 4:48 pm (UTC -4)
LOL nice catch.
ceetar
8/10/2010-4:48pm at 4:48 pm (UTC -4)
It’s a Marlins “less than A-Rod” lineup. *sigh*
metsfan4decades
8/10/2010-4:55pm at 4:55 pm (UTC -4)
Oh…I just remembered this is against Jimenez, no less.
Well, if these kids can hit one of the best pitchers in the league this year, they should be able to hit anyone.
This is gonna be some game…..