The Omar effect is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept of the Mets dependence on initial conditions in baseball theory; namely that small moves made prior to the season and during the season may produce large variations in the long term behavior of the Mets system. Although this may appear to be an esoteric and unusual behavior, it is exhibited by very simple systems: for example, a ball placed in the glove of a Dickey or Perez might find success or plummet into several valleys depending on slight differences in initial position. The Omar effect is a common trope in Mets circles when presenting scenarios involving hindsight and “what if” scenarios where one season diverges at the moment of a seemingly minor event resulting in two significantly different outcomes.
So what the hell is all that about? How could Omar or any other baseball fan or mind have predicted these two outcomes?
Oliver “You Can’t See Me” Perez: 14 games, 6.70 ERA, 2.023 WHIP with the Mets having a record of 1-13 in games he has stepped on the mound.
RA “The Truth” Dickey: 20 games, 2.57 ERA, 1.17 WHIP with a record 12-8 in games Dickey has maned the mound.
Yet that Omar effect runs deeper than that.
Lets take a look at these:
Jason “Who the Hell Put That There?” Bay: .259 , .347, .402, .749 with 140 Total Bases.
Angel “I’m the Real MVP” Pagan .294, .349, .450, .798 with 205 Total Bases.
Lets match that with these 2.
John “Not the Truth” Maine: 6.13 ERA, 1.815 WHIP
Jon “Say Uncle” Niese: 3.63 ERA, 1.336 WHIP
Not enough? How about:
Pedro “Baked” Feliciano: 46.1 innings, 1.791 WHIP with 11.3 H/9 and 4.9 BB/9.
Elmer “Fudd” Dessens: 31 innings, 1.323 WHIP with 8.4 H/9 and 3.5 BB/9 (2.32 ERA)
One more?:
Carlos “RF here I come” Beltran: .218, .331, .323, .655
Josh “I’m a keeper” Thole: .297 .371 .360 .731
So what does all this have to do with Omar or some Omar effect?
If you look at each of these cases they were Omar at his best AND Omar at his worst.
Omar signs Oliver Perez to a 3/36 year deal but how the Mets handle his lack of focus and now lack of ability turns into a back-page free-for-all. Omar signs R.A. Dickey on a minor league deal and has one of this year’s best pitchers under team control for 2011.
Omar signs Jason Bay to be a stable force in the Mets lineup only to see Bay go through the NY 1st year slump on roids as well as a possible season ending injury due to a concussion that again questions the Mets medical staff. Pagan comes in untrusted again and becomes the Mets most stable force.
Omar takes a risk with not upgrading the starting rotation and allows John Maine to prove himself healthy. He was not, said he was, said he was not and again the situation becomes a distraction again. Omar takes a risk going with Jon Niese and he produces middle of the rotation results with 13 starts allowing 1 run or less.
So are these a pattern of bad luck/good luck? Inability/ability? It seems as though the follow one exact pattern… The Mets under Omar.
At one point you see them as a team that is a team of destiny yet a short time later a team destined to fail. A team that is full of brash confidence that other teams love to hate and a team that can’t get out of their own way and is waiting for the next shoe to drop.
I think Metsfans4decades perhaps is on to something. As a poster who seems as rational as any I have ever read, her switch to blaming Omar for the Mets demise seems like a revelation to her and through her I think I have had my own.
Step one to reversing this trend of one up one down is to remove the one up one down man himself.
28 comments
metsfan4decades
8/30/2010-8:24am at 8:24 am (UTC -4)
Could not have explained it better myself….
I will be honest here though and say a small percentage of this cannot be hung on Omar such as Bay’s performance this year. There was nothing, anywhere – in his past performances to indicate Bay would under perform to expectations this year. I don’t think anyone expected a 40 HR type of year but the down year he apparently had could not have been predicted.
The rest you mentioned above?
Some turned out to be very good luck
- Pagan finally living up to expectations and proving himself to be a good everyday OF instead of a 4th OF. Kudos to Omar for sticking with him.
-Also RA Dickey far and above exceeding what I’m sure Omar signed him for, which was nothing more than depth.
-The poor handling of injuries in the past few years is what I believe added to the Beltran saga. By Omar’s own admission: ‘we have to weigh the doctor’s advice against putting our better players on the DL long term’.
It’s not only the hit or miss type effect with Omar’s signings either that has me convinced it’s time for a new GM. It’s the off field antics over the past few years directly attributed to Omar that has this franchise perception more on the ‘joke’ side then ‘well run’ organization side. Re: the handling of Willie being fired, Bernazard, Rubin, etc.
Omar had his chance and not a short term one either. We just fell short in 2006 and it’s been steadily going downhill ever since. Que 2010, a year we should have been in contention all year and wound up out of the race for all practical purposes by the end of July.
In order to turn this franchise around, I believe it’s time for a new GM with a different – better – vision of how to construct a contending team. One who also has the skills to address the media where expectations every time he opens his mouth won’t be the highlight sound bit on sports news to keep driving home the perception of this franchise being a joke.
rustyjr
8/30/2010-8:46am at 8:46 am (UTC -4)
And lest we forget Brian Bannister for Amby Burgos – btw Burgos busted again for trying to murder his wife by trying to poison her
Gonzo Will
8/30/2010-9:13am at 9:13 am (UTC -4)
Let’s not forget about Heath Bell!
TRS86
8/30/2010-9:24am at 9:24 am (UTC -4)
I don’t have a problem with the Bell, Lindstrom or Bannister trades. Bell was given plenty of chances and did not perform. We still don’t know if he would have in NY. Bannister is nothing special and while his trading partner is a criminal it was a good trade in theory. Lindstrom was old in AA and had no spot on the roster.
Those things are not what bothers me. It’s that for every good with Omar there is a bad. Everything from signings to trades to off field is up and down there seems to be little gray which is what baseball is normally played under.
rustyjr
8/30/2010-9:26am at 9:26 am (UTC -4)
Except for the church: schneider for lastings deal – that was a wash
TRS86
8/30/2010-9:39am at 9:39 am (UTC -4)
True but even that one proved to develop mediocre at best results.
Dirtysanchez
8/30/2010-9:37am at 9:37 am (UTC -4)
a .500 GM gave way to a .500 team…go figure lol
Mr North Jersey
8/30/2010-9:41am at 9:41 am (UTC -4)
Hey man! You changin any diapers yet or what?
Dirtysanchez
8/30/2010-9:50am at 9:50 am (UTC -4)
lmaoo….not for another 2 1/2 months my friend…practicing the technique though lol
metsfan4decades
8/30/2010-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
Ah….we missed you over the weekend in the Dugout and I was wondering if you had maybe become a Daddy. I thought I had remembered your little girl was due in August but see now I was off by over 2 months….
Dirtysanchez
8/30/2010-10:00am at 10:00 am (UTC -4)
lol…yea it was a very busy weekend and I didnt have time to catch the game(got all the alerts though). It would have been great if she was born already(the anticipation is killing me lol) but not going to lie, I could use those extra 2 months lol
rustyjr
8/30/2010-9:59am at 9:59 am (UTC -4)
Practicing on your mr met doll ? He knows how to crap the bed lol
stickguy
8/30/2010-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
well, he is omarlicious!
I always thought the problem (and maybe this is what you were saying) was not having a back up plan. That is, assuming once you had spots filled with a body, that everything would go perfectly. Then acting surprised or befuddled when something didn’t!
That, and never seeming to be able to read the market, or predict who it would be going.
GravediggerHebner
8/30/2010-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
This is not an objective observation of The Omar Effect and I certainly could be wrong but it seems like the things that go wrong, while maybe being at a roughly .500 pace compared to the things that go right, are otherwise more problematic because they are expensive mistakes.
When R.A. Dickey goes right it’s a minimal investment giving maximum return. When Oliver Perez goes wrong, it’s a maximum investment giving minimal return.
I think every pair of players that you used to illustrate your point also demonstrates this phenomenon: when Omar gets something right it’s “tiny” and when he gets something wrong it’s “humongous.”
Whoever is running this team going forward needs to do a better job with their big, long term investments.
TRS86
8/30/2010-12:04pm at 12:04 pm (UTC -4)
Possible but the result is still average just like the Mets.
GravediggerHebner
8/30/2010-12:15pm at 12:15 pm (UTC -4)
No doubt the result is average.
What I am suggesting is possible (not factual I haven’t investigated it deeply) is that a $12-20 million mistake is more detrimental than a $400,000-2 million success is helpful.
TRS86
8/30/2010-12:20pm at 12:20 pm (UTC -4)
Very possible but the results of the Mets in large has been an average team both in talent and record.
oleosmirf
8/30/2010-12:03pm at 12:03 pm (UTC -4)
finally you caved
TRS86
8/30/2010-12:21pm at 12:21 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah I came to that conclusion a while back. Just thought this was an interesting way to look at it. I thought about the times I had defended Omar for the good and had been given back the bad and while I am still not sure the bad out weighs the good it is enough to be even and thus we get even results and a .500 team.
stickguy
8/30/2010-12:28pm at 12:28 pm (UTC -4)
bottom line, the only things that matter is, the bottom line (wins).
Or in the case of his bosses, making money.
stickguy
8/30/2010-12:53pm at 12:53 pm (UTC -4)
Real, you hit the “big time”
FWICG has this article on the home page, complete with positive commentary by the big man himself.
Mr North Jersey
8/30/2010-2:06pm at 2:06 pm (UTC -4)
LoL, he even mentions him by name “Interesting, TRS…”
OK now is that the 1st time he has ever mentioned any of our authors by name? I think that is a Y.E.S.
Dear God the dugout won’t be big enough for TRS’s head now. I am having visions of TRS in Wonderland.
TRS86
8/30/2010-2:28pm at 2:28 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, no I will still be as easy going and un-opinionated as always.
GravediggerHebner
8/30/2010-1:02pm at 1:02 pm (UTC -4)
It’s hard to do so completely objectively but if one observes the payrolls of all 30 teams one can subjectively find some bad contracts on every team.
But Omar is among a select few to have fairly useless players locked up long term. Perez @ 3/$36 and Castillo @ 4/$25 is $51 million spent on players who have been consistently among the worst at what they do during their contracts.
Carlos Zambrano is horrific and trumps the worst Omar has ever done IMO. You often cite Vernon Wells and yes he’s overpaid but in the top 1/3 of all OF this season by many measures unlike Zambrano or Perez among pitchers, or Castillo among 2B.
Omar has spent significant funds very poorly and needs to have those responsibilities removed before he causes more harm. Some would say that’s already happened and to that I would say “good.”
milnerswingandamiss
8/30/2010-1:12pm at 1:12 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t see how you can fairly evaluate Omar’s overall performance without bringing Jeff Wilpon into the analysis. How much independence do you really think he has?
The Wilpons put a high premium on loyalty and familiarity — in a family business, that sometimes matters more than performance. The difference this time is that attendance is going down the toilet, but I still don’t know if that’s enough to move Fred and Jeff towards regime change. Especially since any GM candidate who’s worth anything will likely have a mind of his own.
The lines of authority (or lack thereof) are really the problem.
stickguy
8/30/2010-1:23pm at 1:23 pm (UTC -4)
none of us really know where the real power/authority lie in the Met FO, but it seems clear that Jeffy plays an active role, and that is usually a bad thing in sports.
and the family/loyalty aspect is why I could see Omar being reassigned to a director of overseas scouting and player development role. Just away from GM.
and even if there is still a sharing of power, a new GM with fresh ideas should be somewhat empowered from the beginning, in recognition of needing to fix some of the problem areas, even if he does not receive full autonomy.
and relaly, the owners never fire themselves, and eventually someone has to pay the price for underachieving!
GravediggerHebner
8/30/2010-1:24pm at 1:24 pm (UTC -4)
A very fair and important point you raise but regardless I think it’s fair to say that Omar has done a poor job of working within whatever restrictions may have been placed on him. If his previous answer was to throw money at a problem, with that option removed, he has seemed incapable. Whoever the next GM is they need to be better at adjusting on the fly, at having more than 1 annual reactionary plan, than the current one.
metsfan4decades
8/30/2010-1:43pm at 1:43 pm (UTC -4)
Agree with both Stick and Grave above.
I wasn’t advocating ‘FIRE OMAR’, but reassign him to a position better suited for his ‘baseball’ talents and get a GM in here Jeff trusts. I get the impression Jeff doesn’t have much faith left in Omar and is tying his hands more so than in the past.