Optimism about the Mets eventual re-rise to prominence may be found in a similar Phillies youth movement just previous to their World Series victory in 2008 and a similar youth movement by the Mets in the early 1980s. Yes, the Phillies were more advanced in 2006 – they won 85 game in 2006, 88 the year before, but that’s because the Phils integrated their up-and-comers gradually while the current Mets look to be on a crash program. Meanwhile, the young 1983 Mets won just 68 games, then won 90 in 1984 and 90 or more in five of the next six seasons.
I’m not saying there is a direct or exact parallel between the Phils of 2006, the early 1980s Mets and this year’s Mets, or between the individual players I’ve listed below. But the past can inform the future in patterns that repeat themselves, and we shouldn’t project the future against today’s frustrating results.
Peruse these comparative stats of the then nascent Phillie stalwarts in their first or second years and similar young Mets from the early 1980s, both groups of which developed into World Series winners, to our current crop youthful offenders (Mets 2010 stats as of Friday):
As you can see, the young Mets have stats similar to those of players who would blossom into stars for the Phillies in 2008 and beyond and into the 1985-1990 Mets. And drawing the parallels even further, all three teams have established aces (Santana, Moyer, Gooden) and a trio of established vets (Wright/Reyes/Bay, Rollins/Burrell/Feliz, Carter/Hernandez/Knight) and steady the ungainly colts.
There’s no reason why these current young Mets, plus other hopefuls such as Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Reuben Tejada, Reese Havens, and Dillon Gee couldn’t develop equally well and as quickly as the young Phillies of a few years ago and the early 1980s Mets.
It will likely take at least one or two more season for these current young Mets to mature to near their full Phillie/1980s Mets-like potential; hopefully whomever the Mets bring in as GM and manager recognize this and stick with the youth program. And once the Mets rid themselves of their hefty fiscal responsibilities to Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo and Carlos Beltran, and have a steady hand at GM and manager (I know, a lot of ifs), they’ll be better able to re-sign David Wright and Jose Reyes to extensions and use the talent being developed to trade for or convince key pitching free agents to come to Queens to make the Mets playoff contenders in a year or so and true World Series favorites in the same year CitiField will host the All-Star Game, 2013.
In the meantime, I’m willing to exhibit the same sort of patience I ask of management in these next few developing years.
8 comments
metsfan4decades
9/20/2010-8:49am at 8:49 am (UTC -4)
I don’t know much about the Phillies farm system and how some of their prospects were rated before they came up. The current crop we’ve brought up this summer, from Niese to Ike to Thole to Duda, I don’t believe were rated top prospects – certainly not highly touted as Strawberry or Doc Gooden were when they first came up.
Not to say they can’t be successful and a contribution part of this team but outside of Mejia, not many are projected to be a star. We’re desperately in need of pitching and outside of Mejia, who needs another year down there, we don’t seem to have anyone ready who can help out this 2011 team. I watched the game yesterday and the Braves brought out this 22 year old rookie Kimbrel to close out the game. He promptly struck out the side in between an Ike Davis infield single. Spoke volumes to me that in a save situation, with the division on the line, Cox didn’t bring in Wagner but rather this highly touted pitcher they brought up – who had no problem getting the job done.
I hope some of these kids will be contributing factors. I hope 1 or 2 will be better than contributing factors. To me, the jury is still out on all of them.
stickguy
9/20/2010-9:37am at 9:37 am (UTC -4)
prospect ratings are largely guesses, and “what ifs”. Plenty of guys labeled top prospects bomb out, and other guys have much better careers.
But, Neise was certainly a well regarded pitching prospect, and Ike was a top guy for the most part.
Production up at the top levels is more important then where some guy like Keith Law pegged them a few years ago.
metsfan4decades
9/20/2010-9:48am at 9:48 am (UTC -4)
I’ll agree with that. Case in point the Braves thought Jeff Francoeur was their next superstar. Didn’t quite work out that way.
I’m hoping a few of the Mets prospects are flying under the radar right now and turn out to be very good players up here.
stickguy
9/20/2010-9:45am at 9:45 am (UTC -4)
Murphy to utley might be a bit of a stretch!
The phillies basically just got “lucky” (fortunate?) to have the once in a great while situation (like the yankees in 1995ish, and possibly the Mets in the early 80s) to have a realtively large core of studs all arrive together, and to actually all become stars or extremely good players, and to stay healthy for an extended time.
When that happens, and you can get a few good moves layered on (trades or FA that work), you end up with a dynasty, at least as long as they stay healthy.
But, eventually they become old, start breaking down, and/or get signed to giant contracts that drag the team down. unless you are the yankees, and have the $$ to sign 2-3 top FAs every year to keep the pipeline primed!
Will this happen to the Mets? Can only hpoe. But they have the plus that their core studs are still very young (just entering their primes), to go along with the incoming wave. For the Phils, if they did get a couple more top prospects in a few years, there will be nothing left for them to join!
I do think Ike, Thole and Neiss (health gods willing) are going to be 3 very good players for many years. Add DW (as much as he seems to be fading back towards average at best) and Reyes, and potentially Pelf, that could be a very good nucleus to build on for the next 5 years
TRS86
9/20/2010-9:53am at 9:53 am (UTC -4)
Wright will be fine. These type seasons (like the last 2) have to weigh on him tremendously. I expect him to return to his all-star ways once there is stability both in the offense and the clubhouse.
stickguy
9/20/2010-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
maybe, if the next HC can figure out how to get hiim back to more of what he used to be, and not the HoJo clone that he is today
njstuckintx
9/20/2010-12:09pm at 12:09 pm (UTC -4)
That picture of Keith is killing me for some reason. Been laughing every time I see it.
TRS86
9/20/2010-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
I know, I thought the same when I picked it. Oh by the way, I accidentally stole this story. I will change the author.