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Sep 21

Beltran and Cash for Ellsbury? Poll Time.

I have no explanation as to why I chose that feature image only that for some reason I thought it was hilarious and wanted to see it over and over.  NOW on with the show.

It’s been a long time since TRDM polled it’s readers.  What a better topic than this one?  OK, I am sure there are many better ones but this is what you get.

There are rumblings and grumblings, most likely from indegistion on the part of Jon Heyman, that the Mets are very interested in Jacoby Ellsbury and would move Carlos Beltran and cash for the Pagan like Ellsbury.   Ellsbury has been injured most of the 2010 season and is currently out for the year with a fractured left rib cage. In 2009 Ellsbury had a break out season with the following stats:

Year Age AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
2009 25 624 94 188 27 10 8 60 70 12 49 74 .301 .355 .415 .770
4 Seasons 1372 222 399 60 18 20 130 136 24 102 178 .291 .344 .405 .749
162 Game Avg. 637 103 185 28 8 9 60 63 11 47 83 .291 .344 .405 .749
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/21/2010.
Ellsbury is a first year arbitration eligible  player who will not be a FA until 2014.
According to the “rumor” the Mets would need to/ would be sending 15M in cash Boston’s way to cover all but 3M of Beltran’s 2011 salary.
Assuming (making an as s out of u and me) these terms are correct, participate in the following Poll.

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57 comments

  1. Ceetar

    just because some feel we can’t compete next year doesn’t mean we should actively weaken the team to make it so.

    1. TRS86

      Ceetar, explain your thoughts on how trading the current Carlos Beltran for Jacoby Ellsbury weakens the team. I am not saying for sure that it does or does not. Still in the listening stage. Currently I think that if Ellsbury’s injury was freak then it strengthens the team by giving them another young under control player that has a ton of speed and does not have shot knees.

      1. Ceetar

        Even throwing out that that’s a crazy amount of money to eat for Beltran, I’d be surprised if Ellsbury outperformed Beltran in 2011. I don’t even think it’ll be close.

        Then there is the power thing. Ellsbury has none. Beltran has plenty even if he doesn’t hit 41 again. As things stand now we’ve got Castillo (or Tejada) who hits none, and Pagan and Reyes, while they will hit 10 or so which isn’t bad, is still not much. Thole isn’t likely to hit a bunch in 2011. It’s not the right fit for the team.

        Speed and defense we have plenty of (even assuming Ellsbury is that good defensively). and Ellsbury would be playing RF for the Mets anyway.

        Even if you’re throwing out 2011, which is stupid, does Ellsbury make any real sense for the future? That’s assuming he’ll be without a doubt better than Fernando Martinez or Lucas Duda or any of the other guys.

        Money? Well the Mets saved 3million this year by not paying Rodriguez. even if that was a huge deal of money preventing them from doing something, they’ve already created that flexibility and have even earned interest on it before next year.

        1. TRS86

          Some valid points.
          However, does Beltran still have HR power? Beltran has hit 14 HR in his last 586 PA. More than Ellsbury? Yes. However, is that value decreased when you look at triples and SB?
          Also, with the team playing in Citi is it more important to have speed or 20 HR power.
          Next question, who is more likely to return to their norms? Beltran or Ellsbury?

          1. TRS86

            To sum it up can you really count on Beltran being healthy enough next season to be relied upon and make a difference? If so then this trade is not for you.

          2. Ceetar

            My money’s on Beltran.

            his last 586 PA is too long a time period.

            He’s hitting to an .810 OPS in September. 6 XBH.2SB.

            Ellsbury is nothing special. We’ve got a nice 1-2 in Reyes and Pagan and I guess you could reexplore Reyes 3rd, but otherwise he doesn’t really fit in the lineup well. 6th or 7th? nah..

            No thanks. especially for the cost. I’d rather release/trade Beltran flat out in June if he continues to decline, which seems unlikely to me, and explore a trade option or see if one of the rookies is breaking out.

          3. TRS86

            His last 586 PA is too long? We should use a small September sample?
            UH OK. Beltran for MVP.

          4. Ceetar

            The sample is tainted by injury and layoff. I’m merely representing that recently he’s shown that he’s capable of still hitting. Provided he doesn’t have surgery in the offseason, I’d bank on Beltran having a good season before i would Ellsbury.. He’s got thousands of AB worth of history to suggest that he’s capable, so I’m much more likely to believe a small sample that represents he’s still go those skills.

      2. kingman 26

        LOL!!!!

        Why would the Red Sox make this deal?

        It would weaken US??

        Too much, just too much.

        1. saltygary

          Kong it is scary how much we are agreeing on lately. Theo would have to be on crack to make this move. Theo wouldnt take this deal even if you paid Beltran’s entire salary and threw in a case of Yeungling.

          1. kingman 26

            Couldn’t agree more.

  2. njstuckintx

    Yes. He’s skill set translates well to NY and then we can trade away Reyes and still have a lead off guy. KIDDING!

    1. TRS86

      Actually I was thinking the same thing. I know it would spark another debate so I did not include it.
      Having Ellsbury and Pagan at the top of the lineup would indeed more allow you to trade Reyes.

      1. njstuckintx

        I almost didn’t want to bring it up as I didn’t want to start that debate either. Even if Reyes was to be extended and kept, having Reyes, Elsbury, Wright, Ike, Bay, Pagan, Thole, 2B, P exploits Citifield quite nicely.

        1. TRS86

          Agreed. It’s amazing to me how many people who have written off 2011 don’t want to make this trade. For those of us who have not written it off it STILL makes sense to me.

          1. GravediggerHebner

            I have written off 2011 (see “You could make a case” to be unveiled tomorrow) but I still don’t want to acquire Ellsbury because with Pagan & Reyes in house he becomes triple redundant. He’s arguably faster than both of them but he has less power and doesn’t get on base any more often or defend any better than either of them.

          2. njstuckintx

            If you have written off 2011, and getting something vs. nothing for Beltran is desirable, wouldn’t getting a player under control for 3 years be worth acquiring? You can then flip elsbury or the multitude of OF prospects to fill other needs. I personally like Elsbury and think he would be a decent addition. But even if he pans out to be a 3rd OF type with speed, who could play CF/corner OF, wouldn’t he be of value to the bench at the least with some very nice (and cheap) upside?

            The market on Beltran is not going to be all that great and I’d consider his uptick in September as a way to parlay his return (aka less money in the “beltran & Money” portion of a trade) and sell while you can get a return. If he goes on to be great, so be it. He’d be gone from the Mets after the year in all likelihood and with nothing in return to boot.

          3. GravediggerHebner

            Ellsbury framed as a commodity and not a future player around whom to build is a bit more palatable.

            But I just can’t fathom the Mets, given their noteworthy recent injury history, trading for a guy who missed 111 games this year. Can he recover from broken ribs more likely than Beltran recovers from his crazy knee thing? Probably but I think the Mets if they’re going to send a player who, when healthy, is as solid as Beltran plus so much money they need to get someone back who has been healthier recently than Ellsbury. Too scary for me to consider a different guy missing significant time, the same guys doing it are bad enough.

          4. saltygary

            I have written off 2011 but you would have to make this trade. I am all in favor on whatever needs to be done for 2012 and beyond and this deal would be big. Who cares about what salary is on the books next year. The budget is already busted. It what’s done about salary going forward and the talent that is attached.

          5. kingman 26

            I think we have little chance for postseason play in 2011 and I would make this trade instantly and be thrilled about it.

  3. TRS86

    I thought it better to place my opinion here. While it troubles me to say it, I vote yes. OK it does not trouble me at all. I thought it was time to trade Beltran last off-season and I for sure do this season. Yes I know that 15M is a lot of money to eat. However, you would be getting many years of a guy that can replace Beltran and hopefully can be counted on to play instead of counted on to maybe play. I still love Beltran and will support him if he is here but in my opinion one of the biggest moves they can make, aside from non player moves, is to remove question mark players from the team such as Beltran, Castillo, Perez, etc.

    1. njstuckintx

      The youth and control-able years make this a good deal in my mind. would like to eat less of the 15mil, but desperate times.

      1. TRS86

        I was thinking about those 15M. One of course they are already spent. Two even if you factor in those 15M over the course of Jacoby’s 3 more seasons before FA I think he would still be a bargain. I think his game translates more to the NL anyway. 70 steals?

  4. stickguy

    Well, say these are the only 2 pieces involved. And the money is as you say, with Ells making roughly 3 mill as a 1st year arb guy.

    Then it legitimately is a straight player for player, money wash deal for 2011. The Mets, of course, have the option to offer arb again though, so they do get some more years of control (but not cheap control).

    so the big question is, who will put up better numbers in 2011? I have to say Beltran, assuming (of course) he stays healthy, but that ain’t no given for eliisbury either.

    I also have not written off 2011, and I really hate to see the power potential decimated any more. This would leave DW (who should be trying to hit fewer HRS!) and Ike as the entire, sole, only legit power sources on the field.

    Do you really want to create the 1980 Cardinals (or whatever year that was) again?

    I also am not that excited about having ellisbury for 2012+, since the one thing the mets do seem to have is OF prospects.

    SO, unless the additional move you are offering up is to trade Pagan (since they are somewhat redundant), I don’t see it.

    And even if yo think he becomes the leadoff man to replace reyes in 2012, you still have a weak OF.

    Also, since reyes hits 1 only, where do you put Ells? 2 hole?

    1. TRS86

      Asking me where I would hit him is not very fair. I look at how many times a player actually leads off in a game. I would go
      Reyes, Ellsbury, Wright, Davis, Pagan, Bay, 2B, Thole. According to stats the 5th spot leads off an inning the 2nd most of any other spot. While that spot is traditionally an RBI guy a case could be made for that guy to be your best RBI/Lead off guy. Reyes is not moving to 5th so that leaves me Pagan.

      I am hoping that regardless of Beltran, Ellsbury or whomever that the new hitting coach gets Wright to stop worrying about the damn HR just as most Mets fans should when they play in Citi for half their games.

      1. njstuckintx

        following the assuming line of thinking, assume Wright gets 25, Bay gets 25, Ike gets 22+, Reyes 10, Pagan 12+, then yes, some more pop would be nice. I can see Ike & Bay getting more. Yeah, I’d like 40 HR guys at all the positions, but 4-ish at 20+ would be decent. Not sure where I see the 4th 20HR guy, but who knows. Mad Mashing Murph at 2B…

    2. TRS86

      Depends on what we determine is cheap control as well. He is 1st time arbitration elligible this year after making .475M this past year. I don’t see that much of a raise until he gets to 3rd year arbitration.

    3. kingman 26

      Um, the 1982 Cards were dead last in the league in HR and won the World Series.

      The 1985 Cards were next to last in HR and won the pennant.

      The Mets have prospects who have proven nothing. Ellsbury is a proven and very productive player.

      This deal is a no-brainer for the Mets and one the Red Sox would never make.

      1. Ceetar

        Ellsbury is a proven and very productive player.

        Ellsbury has proven that he has the talent to be a semi-productive player if healthy.

        1. kingman 26

          Ceetar, I cannot think of a better endorsement of the rectitude of one’s argument than having you cross it out and correct it.

  5. njstuckintx

    You’d make Oleo happy if you included Dice-K and Ollie in that deal.

  6. stickguy

    also saw alink that there are no dimension changes planned for citi filed for next year. I think they should at least loer the fence in LF to 8′. Hell, lower them all. Screw it, do something about the RC field gaps too, maybe wright will decide to try and hit a few balls that way again.

    ALso said it was the 3rd hardest park in all MLB (behind seattle and Oakland) to hit HRs, at least based on HRs per game hit.

  7. GravediggerHebner

    To start I get the whole “UZR is flawed” thing and I agree it is flawed and should not be used alone. Having said that it suggests that Ellsbury is a corner outfielder. 536 innings in LF it’s 9.9, UZR/150 is 23.4. 287 innings in RF it’s 5.2 & 23.9. For 2061 innings in CF it’s 0.1 & 0.2. So be all, end all absolutely not but cause to look closer and dig deeper IMO yes regarding his defense.

    Offensively his OPS+ for his career is 92 which is below league average of 100. It has only been above 100 once in his rookie year 33 game stint when it was a superb 131 (David Wright’s career OPS+ is 135 for comparison, Jose Reyes’s is 101).

    His career OBP (which would be his more important attribute as opposed to the SLG part) is .344 or .009 higher than Reyes’s career OBP. So in his career he hasn’t demonstrated an ability to get on base significantly more than our current lead off hitter. It’s also .007 higher than Angel Pagan’s career OBP.

    So I see a guy who may or may not be a usefully positive defensive OF (at least not if deployed in CF), a guy who doesn’t hit with any power which is typically but not exclusively something a team would like from it’s corner OF, and he doesn’t get on base any better than other in house candidates for lead off batter.

    I can’t see the benefit of giving up the potential of Carlos Beltran in a walk year PLUS $15 million for a guy who doesn’t give the team anything that it doesn’t already have.

    1. Mr North Jersey

      I think that is the biggest thing for me. Giving Boston Beltran plus the $15M for Ellsbury.

      I can see if it was straight up then the Mets can say they are trying to get out of having to pay $15M next season freeing up that money for other ventures not yet known.

      Your almost better off gambling that Beltran will rebound in 2011 and hopefully end 2011 as one of the most coveted free agents. If he fails what did you lose? the opportunity of watching Ellsbury play RF in 2011?

      I like more having the possibility of watching what Capt Kirk may bring in 2011.

  8. metsfan4decades

    Learn something new everyday…like I can’t see the actual poll in Firefox with Ad Blocker on. Fear not though as I brought it up under I.E. and am one of the 8 who voted ‘no’.

    First, I can’t see Boston making this deal. Even if they would do a trade for Beltran who they could maybe use as a DH part of the time, I’d like to get some pitching back. They have any pitching we could use?

    What we’re basically doing here is gambling on Beltran’s health for 2011. No, I don’t seem him playing 150 games anymore. But if he’s healthy, and he remains healthy for the year, I’m thinking he returns more to norm at the plate, which is something we absolutely could use. I think he’ll do everything he can to make sure his walk year is a big one.

  9. kingman 26

    Ellsbury just turned 27, and other than HR, can do some–if not a lot–of everything at the plate and on the bases, he steals a ton of bases, does not strike out a lot, and in his 2 full years, his OBP went up 20 points.

    Beltran is coming off injury number 100.

    My take is that the Red Sox would laugh heartily at this idea, and if they did not, we should make the deal before they wake up.

    Ellsbury can be a very productive CF/RF for us for years. Beltran has been back for two months, and in all ways has shown he is a shell of the old Beltran. Ellsbury’s two years show many signs of improvement which very well might continue–as Jose Reyes’s first couple of years did with a similar game.

    Beltran’s fielding has clearly not recovered, not has any aspect of his offense.

    This deal would be a great one for us, and a magnificent first step is getting the old out and getting even younger. And as much as we like them, FMart, Duda, Evans, etc., have not come close to proving they are productive everyday players. Ellsbury’s two years have proven that. And a speed demon with 3B and SB as a big part of his game can be a big success in Citi.

    We have no idea if Jose has any intention of returning or if Pagan will be this good again. This also would be insurance against Jose leaving.

    Make this trade today.

    1. stickguy

      I guess if Ellisbury is still a youngster who is learning and improving (tremendous upside potential!), then I assume that Wright and your BFF Reyes are also doing the same, since they are the same age?

  10. GravediggerHebner

    In lighter news, per Adam Rubin:

    Triple-A pitching coach Ricky Bones has joined the Mets for the remainder of the season.

    1. kingman 26

      To coach, or for the 5th spot in the rotation?

      :-)

    2. Mr North Jersey

      I’ve been monitoring Savannah to see if any news about their pitching coach comes up but considering that the Mets must 1st decide who will lead the team in 2011 I guess I really should not expect anything until they decide who will be GM.

  11. saltygary

    Beltran is one step away from the glue factory. I would take a ham sandwich for the guy.

    Dont think this trade would ever be pulled off, not Theo’s style, unless they feel Ellsbury is really hurt. If this was put together and the team added a big power bat in 2012, the offense would be in good shape.

    1. GravediggerHebner

      That’s a very important factor. You have to wonder why the Red Sox are going to part with him for a guy with a questionable knee. The answer would be you’ve given them $15 million to get someone else if it doesn’t work out. Why not just do that yourself? Ellsbury missed 111 games this season because he broke his ribs, then came back and broke them again. One headfirst slide into 2B or dive in the OF away…

    2. stickguy

      salty, where are you putting this power bat, since you just tied up the OF will slappy v2.0?

      aAnd grave, the Sox don’t have 15 mill to put elsewhere if beltran bombs. They would be paying his 18mill, so a net outflow of 3mill, more than ellisbury will get paid.

      What they will save is the salary allocated to Ortiz, since they can use beltran as the DH much of the time, and let him walk.

  12. Mr North Jersey

    [OFF TOPIC]Kind of at least

    In reviewing how Boston has handled Ellsbury this season had the same been done on the Mets. The Mets would of been crucified.

    1. njstuckintx

      Wasn’t his handling similar to Reyes?

      1. Mr North Jersey

        yes based on how I read his injury history this season.

        http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasybaseball/players/updates/1184595

  13. hazmet

    Good tickler poll. I voted No. Ellsbury plus all that cash going to Boston to unload Beltran doesn’t do it for me. There’s alot of discounting Beltran since as many of us have witnessed he’s pretty much broken down. However, I’m not going to trade him, and more importantly all that cash, until seeing if more of a market does emerge for him during the offseason. I’m holding out to see if the deal could be sweetened with a prospect or two plus cash and get Colby Rasmus from the Cards. I also don’t see anything happening since I believe some Managerial candidates the Mets may look into may actually want Beltran here. So first nothing’s going to happen anyway while the seasons closing out before the new regime weighs in and secondly there may actually be a market for Carlos Beltran in spite of what our eyes tell us. There’s a sucker born every minute and if there’s a $15M pile of cash being thrown in this deal as the dollars I believe more than a 27 year old OF coming off 5 broken then rebroken ribs is the best we can do. I’d also like to know how many of Jacoby’s hits were banged off the green monster. Bay just proved how Fenway stats can play out in the big Citi and I’m not looking to see it again with Ellsbury.

    1. TRS86

      I would not worry too much about Boston affecting his stats. Not when his game is a speed game with triples and doubles being more important to him than HR. To me you could argue that his style fits Citi quite well.

  14. TRS86

    I keep reading, not just here but other places as well, how the Mets would not spend 15M to get rid of Beltran or how that 15M would allow Boston to spend more. Beltran is already owed 18M next year. It does not matter what happens, baring a Krod incident, Beltran is getting his money and the Mets are going to pay for it. Is the one year of Beltran at 18M worth 3 years of Ellsbury at a decent price?

    1. Mr North Jersey

      “Is the one year of Beltran at 18M worth 3 years of Ellsbury at a decent price?”

      That is indeed the question.

      Right now at this moment I am leaning toward Beltran being worth it at $18M if the alternative is Ellsbury.

      1. TRS86

        I think you have to factor in the years as much as anything. Also I would have to research what Ellsbury would be making those 3 years. What I do know is that Ellsbury is a 10 triples, 70 steals guy that is 27 years old and is not a FA until 2014.
        Also we do realize that if we hang on to Beltran then we just get him for 2011 at 18M and that’s it. No draft picks, no 2012 (unless god-forbid they re-sign him)

        1. Mr North Jersey

          Keep in mind you can trade Beltran in 2011 to a playoff contending team if he shows he is healthy.

          Also Ellsbury has missed most of the season being dl’d multiple times with his rib injuies. that seem to just not wanna heal properly.

          It’s not like he is healthy either not that he won’t be healed just that their is a risk that he too may not be ready to play in 2011.

          The idea that the Mets are paying Boston $15M for Beltran cause they fear he wont be healthy only to then have Ellsbury have the same situation and have problems healing fully from his injuries doesnt seem worthwhile risk to me.

          1. TRS86

            Obviously the Mets would have to investigate this freak injury. I just can’t see it being a long term issue like Beltran’s knee.

            Of course you can trade Beltran mid year, same argument I made for keeping Reyes.

  15. GravediggerHebner

    I’m not against the idea of trading Beltran.

    I am against the idea of having to convince the receiving party to take him by giving them $15 million to do it.

    I am also against the idea of trading Beltran for another OF at all but especially an injured one at that. If I’m going to pay an injured OF $15 million or $18 million I think that money fits a player the profile of Beltran more so than it does one of Ellsbury’s ilk.

    If this trade proposal were Beltran and $15 million for Dustin Pedroia, a player who like Ellsbury is currently injured, a player who like Ellsbury was on, then off, then almost immediately back on the DL this season, but a player who plays a position that is already a position of need for the Mets that cries out to be filled unlike the OF, I would be much much much more into the idea.

    But sending an OF away for an OF, with all this other stuff, just seems counterproductive. There’s an OF making $18 million already here that the Mets are paying. Why send him and so much of his salary away?

    1. TRS86

      Obviously if Beltran were free you would not get a player like Pedroia. Also, you are not paying Ellsbury 15M. You are paying Beltran 15M. If you do want to translate that to Ellsbury then you have to factor that over 3 years instead of one.

      It’s not Ellsbury or bust for me. I just hope it’s a young semi-established player that fits the “new” Mets as Wright proclaimed. The amount of money it takes does not bother me at all considering that money is already spent.

    2. stickguy

      I agree. the one thing the mets do have in the pipeline is intriguing OFs. Plus, getting a stop-gap corner OF guy is not that hard.

      Getting a 2B that can actually hit, that is worth something. Or SP prospects, could certainly use some of them too.

    3. wannybackstra

      i wouldn’t look at it as trading an OF for an OF because to me Beltran is no longer an OF unless his degenerative condition somehow heals and/or he no longer needs to wear a brace. beltran is a dh. and one that does not look like a good hitting one at the moment.

      as far as health goes, i’m much more comfortable with the idea that broken ribs will heal fully than the degenerative knee of a 30+ year old outfielder with a lot of wear and tear.

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