Fans of change will undoubtedly be excited by the team that takes the field for the Mets on Opening Day in 2011. Certainly 6 of the 9 players that did so on Opening Day in 2010 will not be present. C Rod Barajas, 1B Mike Jacobs, SS Alex Cora, CF Gary Matthews Jr. and RF Jeff Francoeur are no longer with the organization (no tears have been shed), and SP Johan Santana will be on the disabled list (many tears have been shed). With Jason Bay‘s concussion situation yet unresolved, and Luis Castillo‘s ongoing presence a reasonable question, David Wright may be the only repeat Opening Day starter for the Mets in 2011.
Hopefully Bay will be healthy and starting. C, 1B & SS will likely be manned by Josh Thole, Ike Davis and Jose Reyes respectively. CF and RF may well be patrolled by Carlos Beltran and Angel Pagan but not necessarily in that order. Ideally 2B will be ABC (Anyone But Castillo).
But when the New York Mets begin the 2011 season April 1st in Miami against the Florida Marlins who will the Mets send to the mound to oppose likely Opening Day starter Josh Johnson? 5 days later who will match up against Roy Halladay in Philadelphia? 5 days after that who will start the Citi Field home opener against Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez?
By default the answer to all of those questions may be Mike Pelfrey. Are you satisfied with or resigned to that? Would you prefer another in house option, or perhaps someone who is not yet a Met? Let us know in the comments.
Perhaps this Ace is available
63 comments
TRS86
10/18/2010-7:34am at 7:34 am (UTC -4)
I think FA wise they have to look at De La Rosa yet he can’t be the ace. Really the Mets are not in a position to have an ace until Johan returns. However, is an ace that important for next year? Can the Mets get by with a bunch of “2-3″‘s? I am not big on numbering the rotation but you get the picture.
Pelfrey, De La Rosa/Vasquez, Dickey, Niese, Gee?
Not great but certainly could be more solid 1-5 than a lot of staffs out there.
rustyjr
10/18/2010-7:57am at 7:57 am (UTC -4)
From what I’ve heard DeLarosa is alot like Ollie P
TRS86
10/18/2010-8:04am at 8:04 am (UTC -4)
De La Rosa is not great but take a look at his stats before you compare him to Ollie P.
Ollie P has never put together 3 decent seasons in a row. He does have injury concerns and walks too many. Again he is not an answer to the ace problem. Just a guy that I think you can take a chance on. A lot depends on what he is asking for. He might get lucky in a down market OR get left out because of his previous issues.
rustyjr
10/18/2010-8:09am at 8:09 am (UTC -4)
I’m sorry – I didn’t clarify what I meant – I meant from what I’ve heard he is a headcase like ollie
kistics
10/18/2010-8:43am at 8:43 am (UTC -4)
I would’ve said yes to Vasquez before this season, but after what I’ve seen this season, this guy is just not fit for NY.
TRS86
10/18/2010-7:49am at 7:49 am (UTC -4)
This might fit better here:
“if Lilly and Westbrook sign with their teams, as expected, the two best FA starters not named Lee will be Jorge De La Rosa and Carl Pavano.”
Yeah, trade market should get very interesting. Setup for a boring off-season FA market.
njstuckintx
10/18/2010-9:11am at 9:11 am (UTC -4)
I’ve not seen such a barren FA market such as this one, uh, ever. It’s ugly.
metsfan4decades
10/18/2010-8:12am at 8:12 am (UTC -4)
Our ace will start 2011 on the disabled list.
I highly doubt we’ll be looking at Cliff Lee, nor will we be trading for an ace like type pitcher. We almost have to get an arm or two though. We don’t even have a starting 5 rotation right now, let alone depth.
So yes, I’m resigned to starting off the year with a less than desirable starting rotation. I just hope they do the best they can in getting some kind of stability to start – you know, sort of the anti Perez/Maine type arms.
My gut tells me Pelfrey will be the best we have come opening day but it’s a long winter. Anything can happen.
kistics
10/18/2010-8:44am at 8:44 am (UTC -4)
How about trading Pelfrey to get guys like Greinke?
njstuckintx
10/18/2010-9:01am at 9:01 am (UTC -4)
It would be an upgrade, but with more than just an “Ace” missing, trading Pelf would be robbing Peter to pay Paul.
kistics
10/18/2010-9:07am at 9:07 am (UTC -4)
I think Pelf’s value is very high right now. I’m probably (hopefully) wrong on this, but I’m not sure if he’ll ever be that 18-20 win pitcher. So we could potentially get a stud pitcher while selling high with Pelf. I know what you mean that robbing Peter to pay Paul, but it’s still an upgrade and when/if Johan comes back, Johan/Greinke sounds much better than Johan/Pelf.
Just throwing out some random thoughts out there. Greinke does have problems of his own as well.
kistics
10/18/2010-9:02am at 9:02 am (UTC -4)
Or trading for someone like Wandy Rodriguez or Jurrjens
TRS86
10/18/2010-9:34am at 9:34 am (UTC -4)
I don’t see us getting Jerrjens but Wandy would be a good move that MAY be possible.
njstuckintx
10/18/2010-9:45am at 9:45 am (UTC -4)
Houston needs Middle Infield and Pitching, so there could be a fit. Wandy scares me something fierce though.
kistics
10/18/2010-9:50am at 9:50 am (UTC -4)
what do you mean Wandy scares you?
njstuckintx
10/18/2010-9:53am at 9:53 am (UTC -4)
He has shades of Ollie. I almost consider him to be an older Jonathan Sanchez. He has moments where he is exceptional. Like scary good. And then he pulls a 180 for about 3-5 starts and gets smacked around like (insert inappropriate comment here). So, age + consistency is what scares me, and it’s more the consistency thing.
TRS86
10/18/2010-9:59am at 9:59 am (UTC -4)
We need to be really careful throwing that Ollie name out.
Wandy has had an ERA under 5.00 for 4 years in a row and under 4.00 ERA for 3 years in a row. Something Ollie has not nor will ever do.
njstuckintx
10/18/2010-10:03am at 10:03 am (UTC -4)
Ollie to me is synonymous with inconsistency. I don’t equate his stats to other, just the inconsistency. Ollie has become a noun, a verb and an adjective. He may even hit adverb status one day…
TRS86
10/18/2010-10:15am at 10:15 am (UTC -4)
I don’t see it. 24 quality starts is what I counted for Wandy this year.
TRS86
10/18/2010-10:20am at 10:20 am (UTC -4)
23 this year as well as last year.
njstuckintx
10/18/2010-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
numbers don’t always tell the whole story. I’m speaking from what I have seen first hand. I still find him to be inconsistent (though not on the level of O.P.). Would I take him? Yes, cause he’s better than other options. I’d still prefer to pay more in prospects to get someone with better stuff/high ceiling.
stickguy
10/18/2010-10:01am at 10:01 am (UTC -4)
I will take wandy if the price is not out of hand.
saltygary
10/18/2010-9:03am at 9:03 am (UTC -4)
Just because they are the Royals they are not going to take .50 on the dollar unless it significantly reduces payroll. If you want Greinke guys like Ike and Meijea will need to go. Plus he has 2 years left on his contract and it’s reasonable so the Royals are in the power position. One other thing, Greinke is a “social anxiety” guy. Even though he has made great strides in overcoming this issue, what would happen throwing him into the lions den with jerk fans like us?
njstuckintx
10/18/2010-9:05am at 9:05 am (UTC -4)
Are Xanax considered a performance enhancing drug?
kistics
10/18/2010-9:13am at 9:13 am (UTC -4)
Agreed. I was just throwing out names that are potential trade candidates.
njstuckintx
10/18/2010-9:19am at 9:19 am (UTC -4)
There aren’t many potential trade guys out there, unless you get crazy creative. While not a SP trade, I’d like to see K-rod for Jenks trade happen. And as for SP, there is always the possibility of Big Z. (gulp…)
kistics
10/18/2010-9:24am at 9:24 am (UTC -4)
Ahhh Big Z… but that would go against what we predict the ‘new plan’ would be. I’d rather have the Mets spend that money on Lee than trading for Big Z.
TRS86
10/18/2010-9:34am at 9:34 am (UTC -4)
Greinke is dangerous considering his social issues.
njstuckintx
10/18/2010-9:00am at 9:00 am (UTC -4)
Greinke or Garza! If it takes Mejia + Parnell + Tejada + 2 lower ball guys, you do it. I just threw those names out there, but if some combination of those and/or Duda, Fmart, etc. etc. needs to be considered. The FA pool is putrid, so the only way to fill holes is trade.
saltygary
10/18/2010-9:06am at 9:06 am (UTC -4)
I am for what ever the team does to clear the garbage/payroll and gets this team to fire out of the gate in 2012. If that means Livan Hernandez is the ace for next year, then so be it. I just want a plan to turn this team back into a coked up juggernaut.
kistics
10/18/2010-9:08am at 9:08 am (UTC -4)
So you are throwing away 2011 season already.
saltygary
10/18/2010-9:12am at 9:12 am (UTC -4)
Threw it away a long time ago. and I hope the front office does as well. Sometimes you need to take a step back to take a step forward. A change in approach is needed and when 116m is tied up and the team still needs to sign an entire BP not names KROD, the bench and a bunch of starting pitchers, then maybe the team needs to take a step back and let the kids prove they can play and analyze what are the teams strengths and opportunities for 2012 and beyond.
kistics
10/18/2010-9:15am at 9:15 am (UTC -4)
I’m okay with that as long as there’s a clear direction on where this team is going. But another season of Yanks/Phillies dominance is hard to swallow.
njstuckintx
10/18/2010-9:14am at 9:14 am (UTC -4)
I’m not ready to chuck the 2011 season already, but when you look at the combination of money coming off the books, kids being another year older and current injury to Johan… It’s tough not to be higher on 2012 that 2011 at times. Then again, 2012 could have a 17.5 Million Dollar Closer for our beloved Mets.
kistics
10/18/2010-9:19am at 9:19 am (UTC -4)
and also Reyes will be a FA after 2011. So if you renew his contract, you’re looking to add another 10-12M.
njstuckintx
10/18/2010-9:22am at 9:22 am (UTC -4)
He’s worth it though. Figure he gets 4-ish years at 15. He’s making 11 now. So that’s money re-allocated from Gimpy McSlapenstein. The 20 Mil from Beltran and 12 from Ollie is what gets the juices flowing!
kistics
10/18/2010-9:48am at 9:48 am (UTC -4)
Yes he is worth it, but I think a lot of people are counting on clearing salary after 2011 season, but between signing Reyes and raises, I think the Mets will have room to sign ONE top FA. Based on my math, the Mets are clearing about $48M after 2011.
Beltran $20M
Ollie $12
Castillo $6M
Igarashi $1.75M
KRod $8.5M (if the option doesn’t kick in)
Add
Reyes $12-15M
Pagan $5-7M
Pelf $4-6M
And when you consider raises (like $1-2M for Wright and Johan), the Mets have about $16-$22M. Given that the Mets will have lower attendance next season, it could be only one top FA that the Mets sign. So I really don’t see the scenario like that Yanks signing CC, Tex and AJ.
stickguy
10/18/2010-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
kistics, unless I am not following correctly your math, you seem to be adding the 15 for reyes, but not deducting the 11ish he will be making in 2011 anyway.
I also don’t count on Pagan being here in 2012 if he is starting to get expensive.
Also, everyone forgets that the mets are clearing some payroll anyway in 2011 (pelnty to offset raises to pelf and others). Maine and Frenchy, right there is 8 million the mets won’t be on the hook for next season. And if Feliciano walks for the pick (Please new GM, make it happen!) there is another 3. Cora, 2 more. Escobar 1 mill.
replace wisely (say minimum wage guys like turner and Evans to replace Frenchy and cora) and you are already 6 mill to the good right there.
kistics
10/18/2010-10:15am at 10:15 am (UTC -4)
You are correct on Reyes. Thanks for pointing that out. I only saw the spreadsheet on Cot’s baseball contract which does not show Reyes’ $11M. So the Mets should have enough room to sign 2 legit FAs for 2012 season.
As for 2011 season, remember that Bay gets a significant raise like $9M, Wright $4M, Johan $1.5M, Reyes $1.5M (with option picked up), Pelf $2-3M(1st year in Arb and he only got $0.5M this season), Pagan $1-2M, etc. And these raises should offset salary reduction.
TRS86
10/18/2010-10:21am at 10:21 am (UTC -4)
True but the Mets paid Bay a large signing bonus this year that has to be factored in as well. Something like 8.5 M.
stickguy
10/18/2010-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
I always add 9mill to the reported 2010 salary # anyway for Bay, since he got it in a signing bonus instead of salary. Same cost to the mets though, so effectively, he will not cost them extra in 2011
TRS86
10/18/2010-10:32am at 10:32 am (UTC -4)
Correct.
stickguy
10/18/2010-9:34am at 9:34 am (UTC -4)
The team certainly needs 1-2 more legit SPs for next year. But, the team can be successful without an “ace” coming on board.
Call me a heretic (hell, I have been called worse here!), but a team can do fine by having a solid rotation of guys that give you a reliable 6-7 innings of well pitched ball. Avoid having to carry an Ollie type and yo can get by without having a big-name ace.
TRS86
10/18/2010-9:38am at 9:38 am (UTC -4)
Right, not sure you can win in the playoffs but in the regular season the #4-5 are as important as the 1-2.
stickguy
10/18/2010-9:53am at 9:53 am (UTC -4)
considering that besides me, I can count the rest of the fans that think the Mets can make the playoffs in 2011 on 1 hand, who cares anyway!
and the playoffs are a crapshoot, so building the team that can get there means depth, solid up and down, stuff like that. Worry about who your ace is once you are in (since you likely had a lot of good pitchers that year to choose from).
Oh, for the 2011 Mets, why can’t it be Santana for the playoffs? He is supposed to come back sometime, right?
TRS86
10/18/2010-9:39am at 9:39 am (UTC -4)
What the new guy needs to find are the 2007 versions of Ollie and Maine. Those guys did not turn out well to say the least but it’s those types of trades (low risk trades) with upside guys that they need to look at.
stickguy
10/18/2010-10:00am at 10:00 am (UTC -4)
or the next Garza trade. Still pissed they didn’t try to get in on the for F Mart say.
Even if it means sacrificing my man Duda (who IMO is going to be a hell of a hitter with power), if they get back a young near-stud in waiting, it would be worth it.
njstuckintx
10/18/2010-10:04am at 10:04 am (UTC -4)
agreed.
TRS86
10/18/2010-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
Those type of trades are rare and I am not sure we have the Delmon Young to pull it off.
kistics
10/18/2010-10:18am at 10:18 am (UTC -4)
I like Duda too. I know this is a wild idea (and it’s only an idea), but what if the Mets trade Ike and have Duda play 1B?
stickguy
10/18/2010-10:27am at 10:27 am (UTC -4)
It has been mentioned before that I have seen. And it makes some sense, if some team is in love with Ike and it gets you something back too good to pass up. Duda quite possibly can put up equivilant offensive #s as Ike will (both have power, and similar #s in the minors before coming up).
The big drop off is going to be with the glove. Not sure how good (bad?) Duda is at 1st, but you are definitely losing something in the switch.
hopefully the new GM though is smart enough and ballsy enough to look at the roster as a whole, and not fixate on a particular player as being untouchable.
TRS86
10/18/2010-10:34am at 10:34 am (UTC -4)
I don’t think many are untouchable but I also don’t think we should be in the business of creating more uncertainties. Example if you trade Pelfrey then you have to obtain a better pitcher either in that trade or in other venues.
kistics
10/18/2010-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
From what I’ve seen in Duda, he is fairly agile in the OF. Not sure how that translates into soft hands at 1B, but he does seem to have very good athleticism similar to Ike.
The only thing that would worry me is that Duda suddenly discovered power in 2010 in the minors.
TRS86
10/18/2010-10:33am at 10:33 am (UTC -4)
I think that would be very dangerous to do considering we know little about both but even less about Duda.
kistics
10/18/2010-10:46am at 10:46 am (UTC -4)
Agreed. But if what we have seen out of Duda in 2010 (including the minors) continues, I see Duda as kinda like Dunn type of hitter.
TRS86
10/18/2010-10:51am at 10:51 am (UTC -4)
LOFTY expectations.
kistics
10/18/2010-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
Let me re-phrase that. Duda can potentially be Dunn type of hitter IF his 2010 stats hold up.
stickguy
10/18/2010-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
I don’t think Duda will be that much of K guy. Even in the minors, he always seemed to have good plate discipline, and a fine K/BB ratio. Only difference this year is he finally started crushing balls too, but not at the expense of selling out contact for HRs. Just more of a mental thing it seemed, combined with finally being over the damage (or trusting) his wrist more.
He is interesting though for being somewhat of a contact, all fields hitter, who happens to be a huge strong guy that can hit a ball a long way when he connects right. He is not a Steve balboni type, no matter what he looks like.
GravediggerHebner
10/18/2010-10:46am at 10:46 am (UTC -4)
I’m going to be away from the internet most of the day but I want first to add my 2 cents on this topic.
I largely agree with what I understand to be Salty’s stance in that the 2011 season was thrown away by others long ago. Not specifically and intentionally but through the combination of poor contract choices by the former front office, player injuries, and player anti-social behavior, the 2011 road is tough. Not impossible but improbable is the way I would put it. Yes an astute new front office can make a couple key moves, also get a couple lucky breaks, and we are in the Canyon of Heroes next November. But I doubt it.
So as far as the ace question goes I’m not thinking the Mets have to go get one. I’m not in a “Cliff Lee or bust” mindset at all. Someone above (Stick?) said roughly that the team needs to add a pair of reasonably useful starters and I agree with this. No bank breakers, not incredibly long and expensive deals, but a couple serviceable arms that project more hope going into 2011 than say the signing of R.A. Dickey did last year (obviously Dickey’s example shows that miracles are possible but I’m not banking on them).
The reason I feel the Mets need to sign these serviceable arms is because, while I like, admire, respect, and root for Mike Pelfrey, like others have said about Greinke (and clearly Greinke is a more striking example) Pelfrey himself is not entirely solid mentally. He appears to have grown in that regard but so does Greinke so if we are going to fear Greinke’s emotional/mental make up I think it’s fair to fear Pelfrey’s too.
Because of that fear I’d rather not throw Pelf at this stage into the pomp and circumstance that is Opening Day. I would rather not start him regularly against the aces of other teams. I want to allow him to continue to blossom and grow, not get beat down by pitching well but coming up short against the best other teams have to offer.
So I want someone other than Pelfrey to be the figurative ace. If that is R.A. Dickey that’s fine with me. I trust him to be strong enough to handle all that comes with it. But my preferred position is to not put Pelf in the # 1 slot by default.
Have a great day everyone.
TRS86
10/18/2010-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)
To me signing a guy like Vasquez on a one year deal AND trying for a rebirth guy like Webb or even Harden are the way to go for 2011. Neither expected to cost more than 1 year at this point.
kistics
10/18/2010-11:37am at 11:37 am (UTC -4)
I’m not really big on Vasquez as he has struggled in NY yet again. I realize that there’s a difference between AL and NL, but a good pitcher will be a good pitcher regardless of which league he’s in. I just think he’s a good fit in NY.
I really like Webb though. He’s very risky with his injury problems, but I would not mind one year incentive laden contracts like $2+8M.
TRS86
10/18/2010-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
I still don’t think the NY thing has ANY thing to do with his struggles. Only that he was in the AL East and not allowed to work through his problems.
Mr North Jersey
10/18/2010-11:31am at 11:31 am (UTC -4)
If by default the answer is Pelfrey well I can’t say I’d be satisfied but I would be resigned to it.
All things considered there are worse options than say Pelfrey.