White Lilly
We as Mets fans have had some preliminary discussions about the Mets starting pitching staff for 2011. With the knowledge that Johan Santana is going to spend part (hopefully just part) of the 2011 season on the disabled list there seems to be a consensus that the Mets need to add at least one starting pitcher this offseason via free agency or trade. Some even think the Mets should add more than one.
Recently starting pitcher Ted Lilly eschewed free agency to re-sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers for a reported $33 million over 3 years. So my question to you is this:
if you ran the Mets would you have signed Lilly to a 3 year, $33 million contract?
29 comments
stickguy
10/21/2010-11:15am at 11:15 am (UTC -4)
I would have liked Lilly, but 3 years guaranteed, at pretty damned good money? I don’t think so. The guy is going to be 35 next season. Seems durable enough, but that is no spring chicken.
njstuckintx
10/21/2010-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
Man, that’s a tough call. Only 11 million, yet 3 years at that age. I’d be close to a coin flip on that one. Probably lean towards doing it. 51% do it!
njstuckintx
10/21/2010-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
Eh, reading the below, I’ve been swayed. 51% not do it. Lilly lucks out to be an OK pitcher in a horrible pitcher’s market. Go Go Gadget Garza (or equivalent!)
TRS86
10/21/2010-11:30am at 11:30 am (UTC -4)
UH NO!!!!!
TRS86
10/21/2010-11:31am at 11:31 am (UTC -4)
Just like I liked Randy Wolf but those type contracts are ridiculous considering age and production. Same with Lowe.
GravediggerHebner
10/21/2010-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
I would not have done that.
He’s a useful pitcher for sure. But he turns 35 in January so he’d be playing the entire contract at ages 35, 36 & 37, in 12 seasons he’s only made at least 30 starts 6 times although to be fair he’s only been a fulltime starter for 8 of those 12 seasons, he’s only surpassed 200 innings twice, he had knee surgery in 2009, and he had shoulder surgery in 2010 (according to “the baseball injury tool” he’s injured his shoulder 9 (that’s nine) times in his career.
Given all those items and given the Mets recent history and current state, it just doesn’t make sense for this team at this time to wrap up Lilly for 3/$33 in my opinion. I think the next GM can do more productive things with that amount of money over the next 3 seasons.
kistics
10/21/2010-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
Would’ve done a 2 year deal like 2/24, with maybe an option. But not 3 year guaranteed.
metsfan4decades
10/21/2010-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
Have to agree with most above. 3 years for that kind of money for a pitcher is going to be 35? Is good pitching getting to be that scarce anymore?
njstuckintx
10/21/2010-12:19pm at 12:19 pm (UTC -4)
Having had a chance to view this from a different vantage point, you could probably get 2 reclamation risk reward guys at an easy 11 mill (combined) on the short term. 2 being better than one and shorter being better than longer… Well, you get my point. So no, I would not do this.
GravediggerHebner
10/21/2010-12:40pm at 12:40 pm (UTC -4)
This article gives some examples to support your point.
Prismo
10/21/2010-12:35pm at 12:35 pm (UTC -4)
I would not do it, but I’ll tell you what…it’s better than the Ollie deal. At least Lilly has been consistently decent over a long stretch of time, and despite his age he’s been very healthy.
CaseStreet
10/21/2010-12:53pm at 12:53 pm (UTC -4)
One year and less than $10M? Yes, otherwise Hell No!
Hope no one offers Vazquez a multi-year deal.
As far as trades, I like the Cashman plan of spend in the off-season and trade before the deadline. Omar was good for the former but not the latter.
stickguy
10/21/2010-2:04pm at 2:04 pm (UTC -4)
yeah, vazquez seems like a better idea at 1 year, or 1+ an option (less than 17.5mill of course!)
kistics
10/21/2010-2:41pm at 2:41 pm (UTC -4)
No Vasquez please. He can’t pitch in NY.
rustyjr
10/21/2010-3:02pm at 3:02 pm (UTC -4)
I disagree – I think he could benefit by playing in citi field
kistics
10/21/2010-3:12pm at 3:12 pm (UTC -4)
His numbers on the road vs home aren’t all that different. I don’t think it’s the ballpark. I just think he’s not comfortable in NY. Yankees fans/media are pretty bad, but Mets fans/media aren’t all that easy either.
stickguy
10/21/2010-3:35pm at 3:35 pm (UTC -4)
But that is the yankees. They are important.
The mets though have no fans, no one gives a crap, and citifiled will be 90% empty for all games next year. So absolutley no pressure.
Hey, must be true, I read it on the internet!
But seriously, the “can’t play in NY” stuff, IMO, is a bunch of BS. If you want to say he folds under pressure, then you have to look at all his stops to find evidence to support that.
kistics
10/21/2010-3:38pm at 3:38 pm (UTC -4)
Yankee fans are treating him like the ‘Ollie P’ of the Yankees. So why should the Mets take a chance on him? I mean if he’s that good or at least worthy of taking notice, why the heck would the Yankees leave him off the post season roster?
I just don’t see any benefits in signing him.
stickguy
10/21/2010-3:45pm at 3:45 pm (UTC -4)
now you are arguing that he isn’t talented enough as a pitcher anymore. ANd that, of course, is what they should be evaluating.
But I still don’t think that has anything to do with NY. Same as Ollie sucking this bad has nothing to do with being in NY.
kistics
10/21/2010-3:52pm at 3:52 pm (UTC -4)
You maybe right. After 2004 season (when he played for the Yanks), excluding ’09 ATL season, his stats are average at best. Sure he pitched a lot innings, but outside of that, I just don’t see any value in this guy.
CaseStreet
10/21/2010-3:09pm at 3:09 pm (UTC -4)
Maybe, maybe not. This article attempts to dismiss that notion:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bay-vazquez-and-pressure/
If he can be had for cheap, we probably won’t be able to do better.
kistics
10/21/2010-3:30pm at 3:30 pm (UTC -4)
But this article was written in June of 2010. I haven’t paid much attention to the Yanks as I would for the Mets, but I believe Javy’s numbers went downhill during the 2nd half of the season. Opponents batted .866 OPS against him during July-Sep.
Maine and Ollie, during the first 2 months of the season, had opponents batted around .900 OPS. So Javy pitched slightly better than Maine and Ollie.
stickguy
10/21/2010-3:36pm at 3:36 pm (UTC -4)
so, he could pitch in NY for the 1st half of th eyear, but not the 2nd?
I would be worried about physical issues about that decline, not NY pressure.
GravediggerHebner
10/21/2010-3:23pm at 3:23 pm (UTC -4)
Maybe he can’t pitch for the 2010 New York Yankees, but I disagree on “he can’t pitch in NY.”
His career numbers
At old Yankee Stadium:
9-6, 4.68, 1.153 WHIP, 2.75 K/BB ratio
At Shea Stadium:
4-4, 3.53, 1.248 WHIP, 2.45 K/BB ratio
At Citi Field:
1-0, 0.00, 0.500 WHIP, 3.00 K/BB ratio
At New Yankee Stadium:
5-5, 5.29, 1.477 WHIP, 2.18 K/BB ratio
It’s clear he’s had a very bad 2010. Is it the beginning of the end or an aberration, I don’t know.
If there is evidence out there that suggests he’s lost it and is no longer capable of being a good pitcher anywhere then I understand not signing him, but I wouldn’t refuse to sign him based on the Mets being in NY.
But he’s been a much healthier pitcher than Ted Lilly for example, is 6 months younger than Lilly and should come cheaper and for a shorter contract than Lilly.
Vazquez has made 30 or more starts in 11 of his 13 seasons and has thrown over 200 innings in 9 of 13. He has been on the DL once in his career, in 2001 when his orbital bone was broken when he was hit by a pitch in the face while batting.
kistics
10/21/2010-3:35pm at 3:35 pm (UTC -4)
When I’m referring to ‘he can’t play in NY’, it’s not that he can’t pitch in Yankees stadium or Citi Field. But to me, he just can’t handle NY media/fans/ownerships, etc. I would much rather spend that money on someone else than a pitcher that has proven time and time again that he cannot handle the pressures of NY.
GravediggerHebner
10/21/2010-4:42pm at 4:42 pm (UTC -4)
I’ll respectfully disagree. If he’s done as a useful pitcher then he’s done and the Mets shouldn’t sign him because of that, but the “NY” thing is not nearly as proven or factual to me as it is to you.
saltygary
10/21/2010-1:45pm at 1:45 pm (UTC -4)
Nope.
stickguy
10/21/2010-3:43pm at 3:43 pm (UTC -4)
This was humorous.
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2010/10/21/1764023/transcript-of-the-2010-mets-gm-candidate-debate
GravediggerHebner
10/21/2010-4:44pm at 4:44 pm (UTC -4)
I’m willing to suggest that it was my own mood when I read it earlier today but I didn’t find it funny.