Here is the first article for Candidate 3.
To deal, or not to deal?…That is the question.
The recent hype in the New York baseball world is all about the Yankees. In fact, since Mike Pelfrey developed bi-polar syndrome (self diagnosed by me—and no I am not a doctor) shortly before the All-Star break, there have been virtually zero positive headlines coming out of Citi Field. What happened to Big Pelf? Will Santana ever be healthy again? Will David Wright strike out over 300 times? By the end of the year, Met fans had the wrong reasons to look forward to October. There would be no playoff baseball—again. But on a positive note, there would be no more Omar or Jerry either.
There were some nice surprises throughout the year. Ike Davis at least teased us into thinking he can be the long-term answer at first base. Josh Thole looked like the hard-nosed, scrappy player baseball fans love to root for. Angel Pagan showcased his perfectly suited talents—speed and defense—that should help him strive, especially at Citi Field. Ruben Tejada proved he could defend at both middle infield positions at the major league level. And maybe most importantly, John Niese showed flashes of brilliance and consistency that only few expected. Whoever eventually fills the vacant GM position this offseason has decent, young, and inexpensive options to work with next season. Ignoring the pitching staff for a moment, that leaves us with the 3 exceptions: David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran.
All three have been around long enough for experts and fans to pass judgments. All three have proven that they can perform at MVP-caliber levels offensively and defensively. All three have also taken their fair share of criticism.
I will make 2 assumptions here before I continue. Johan Santana and David Wright are the faces of the New York Mets. They both talk when nobody else is talking, give 100% effort on the field every game, and hold themselves accountable even when they are not at fault. In my opinion, David Wright is going nowhere this offseason or anywhere in the future.
On the other hand, Beltran is coming off major knee surgery. He has lingering injuries in both knees. And the sample provided by last season’s work was too small and inconsistent. Unless the Mets eat most of his salary, it seems very unlikely that Beltran will find himself in another uniform next season.
That leaves us with on final piece: Reyes. He is arguably the most important. But he is also arguably the most expendable (or at least most logical to trade). What is not debatable though is his talent. To compensate for the missed games over the last two seasons, I’m going to present what his career numbers would be averaged over a 162 game season.
Reyes’ career line: 111 runs, 286 avg., 335 OBP, 33 doubles, 15 triples, 13 HR, 58 SB, 82 SO, 66 RBI.
First, assume that those numbers are rounded up because nobody plays a 162 game season anymore (though from 2005-2008 Reyes played 150+ games). Next, find me another shortstop on the planet that puts up those numbers. Out of necessity, I had to look. I would strongly advise you against it unless you have nothing to do for the next 48 hours. Besides Hanley Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins (who we unfortunately see a ton of), nobody comes close statistically. Would you take Jeter in the clutch or Adrus for the potential? Maybe. But when it comes to impacting literally every aspect of the game, not many do it better than Reyes.
When you consider his style of play, why would any Met fan ever consider trading this guy? Not only is SS one of the hardest positions to fill on a baseball team (up there with catcher and centerfield), but Reyes’ speed, power to the gaps, and defense make him THE perfect candidate for the job at Citi Field.
I understand that Met fans want more pitching, more bullpen help, and more clutch bats. But to attempt to acquire these needs by saying goodbye to one of the rarest talents in the game is a mistake. Fans pressuring the new GM to make a move, just for the sake of making a move, would be a mistake. Sure, the talent that the Mets could bring back in a Reyes-involved trade would be extraordinary. But what they would be giving up is equally extraordinary—and perfectly fit to what this team should be aiming for in the future. It shouldn’t take Reyes in a Boston Red Sox uniform for even the average Met fan to figure that out.
13 comments
njstuckintx
10/24/2010-5:07pm at 5:07 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, I’m not in the Trade Reyes camp either. I think most want Reyes to succeed. I think most think it’s best if he’s on this team. I also think most would consider trading him if what it brought back was amazing. No one person is bigger than the whole of the team. I still hope a 4 year 50 mil extension is in the works (give or take a couple million).
metsfan4decades
10/25/2010-12:55am at 12:55 am (UTC -4)
Good article. I would have like to have seen the 48 hour research this author put into comparing Reyes to other SSs around the league if for no other reason than it might give a different perspective to some Met fans if they saw it in black and white. I’m not one of those fans though that needs convincing.
Count me also in the ‘not trading Reyes’ camp.
Those that argue for it usually are those who believe we can get back some amazing talent for him. In the same breath the reasons they give for trading him range from health to attitude, to declining talent, to overrated, to poor leadoff hitter. If those same Met fans think it’s time to part ways with Reyes for those reasons, than what GM worth his salt is going to part ways with amazing talent to get Reyes in a trade? They’ll do their homework, to be sure.
Can’t have it both ways. Reyes is one of the least of this team’s problems going forward, IMO. Ask yourself: is this team better off with him or without him manning SS for the next several years?
reyo10
10/26/2010-8:00pm at 8:00 pm (UTC -4)
Hey guys, thanks for the comments. I looked back on it and organized some of the stats that I looked at when I wrote the article. I have it on an Excel spreadsheet and have no idea how to get that onto the site. But metsfan4decades, if you’re actually interested, I can definitely attach it in an email.
Mr North Jersey
10/26/2010-8:09pm at 8:09 pm (UTC -4)
Hello Reyo10 if you don’t mind me making a suggestion. You might want to consider creating a Google Docs account if you don’t already have one. In Google Docs when you make a spreadsheet you can also publish it as a web page allowing viewers to see it without worrying about embedding or emailing it.
reyo10
10/26/2010-8:33pm at 8:33 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks North Jersey.
I brainstormed a bunch of players I viewed as elite SS’s. I recorded all of the stats and then ranked them based on averages over the last 5 season. 5 season is more than enough time for a player to establish himself in the big leagues, and it also gives a good indication of what we can expect from them in the near future.
Reyes is in the top 10 in every category. Top 3 in all but 2 (homers and RBI). Check it out:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0An2SgtMhc4UkdGc0SlQtZWZrT2hkV3VVMVRQRk1FVmc&hl=en&output=html
…Hopefully that works…
Mr North Jersey
10/26/2010-8:38pm at 8:38 pm (UTC -4)
Your welcome Reyo10. I can see the spreadsheet just fine.
One observation though is that the cells don’t auto adjust to fit the data so for example where it says in your cell “>stats taken from last 5 professional seasons” I can only see “>stats taken from las” so maybe you might want to expand them so all the text is visible befor you save it and publish it to a webpage.
Ceetar
10/26/2010-9:54pm at 9:54 pm (UTC -4)
I know Santana’s hurt, but he _should_ be back by midseason. The Mets are set at the hardest positions to fill, they’ve got a Catcher that looks good, a top of the line SS, TWO Centerfielders, an Ace, a top flight closer..
The other stuff is semantics. Get good filler, and the Mets can and should contend. It’s just an example of how much they’ve under performed.
wannybackstra
10/26/2010-10:01pm at 10:01 pm (UTC -4)
santana “should” be back by midseason? says who? and who says he returns as an ace. shoulders are worse for pitchers than elbows.
wannybackstra
10/26/2010-10:00pm at 10:00 pm (UTC -4)
If you value SBs and triples highly then sure no one is quite like Reyes. But if OBP and SLG is more important than those stats of arguable importance, then Reyes, while dynamic and top-tier, has quite a bit of company. Most importantly, his OBP still has not given rise to the level of a premier leadoff hitter.
Here are some SSs in Reyes’s class or ahead:
tulowitzki: 290 .362 .495
hanram: .313 .385 .520
rollins:.272 .328 .435
jeter: .314 .385 .452
drew: .272 .332 .448
castro: .300 .347 .408
alexei ramirez: 283 .321 .430
andrus: .266 .336 .333
In any event, the judgment as to whether to deal reyes has to do more with the value of the return. Reyes has downsides like anyone. He is not an ideal leadoff hitter despite his speed, gets injured frequently and has flopped each and every September that mattered and falls flat in late and close situations. As great he is, I don’t view him as irreplaceable.
reyo10
10/26/2010-10:12pm at 10:12 pm (UTC -4)
It’s hard to evaluate what the Mets would get in return so it’s a little fuzzy looking at it from that angle. Obviously if they get a good deal, it could be worth it. But what’s a good deal? Any ideas?
I guess the Mets would want a top of the rotation pitcher back (due strictly to the fact that improvements at other positions are impractical/unnecessary. And maybe some young talent to revamp the farm.
njstuckintx
10/26/2010-10:22pm at 10:22 pm (UTC -4)
Who needs a SS? Without going crazy, let’s take Boston. They’d love Reyes. Would the Mets do Reyes for Lester, straight up? Would Boston? I’d take it from there and slowly back it down to what you’d think they’d send to make the trade. (this is all hypothetical, I’m not suggesting that this is a possibility, these aren’t the droids you’re looking for).
And would I do that trade, Reyes for Lester? I would. Even not taking into account the salaries (which really skews how one would look at this).
Ceetar
10/26/2010-10:32pm at 10:32 pm (UTC -4)
No. Reyes and Lester have similar WAR values for their average years,but I feel the dropoff from Reyes to what you’d have to replace him versus the pitcher you could get to fill a rotation slot is much greater. Lester is part of less than 20% of the season.
reyo10
10/27/2010-6:34pm at 6:34 pm (UTC -4)
I tend to agree with that Ceetar. But then look at the current WS–especially the Giants. Check out that staff. Check out the other representative in the NLCS. How about that staff?
I don’t know. Tough to weigh.
One specific thing about Lester though: Santana, Lester, Pelfrey, Niese. Do we like the lefty dominance, is it harmful? Interesting to think about.