Applying for Saberguy, Candidate 5:
Met Pitchers and the LIMA Plan:
As much as we all remember his brief stint as a Number 5 starter, the LIMA plan is not the equivalent of a Jose Lima Tribute Band. Low Investment Mound Aces is a sabermetric method of selecting pitchers in the fantasy realm. However, unlike a lot of aspects of Fantasy Baseball, the plan has relevance to the work of the real General Managers in the Majors. Billy Beane’s use of the strategy is well documented in Michael Lewis’ Money Ball. Hopefully, the new Mets General Manager is a believer as well. Why? Because quite simply, the plan is an incredibly accurate predictor of pitching success.
There are three statistics that are measured when predicting a pitcher’s effectiveness. The plan dictates that you should pay attention to these stats, an ignore all others:
– Strikeout to walk ratio- must be at least 2:1
– Strikeouts per 9 innings- must be at least 6.0
– Homeruns per 9 innings- must be 1.0 or less
The theory is that Strikeouts represent a pitcher’s ability to dominate the hitters. Good control keeps runners off base, but more importantly, the plan recognizes that many groundouts and flyouts could just as easily have been hits. Homeruns are the biggest indicator of a pitcher not having good stuff. Pitchers must be able to keep the ball in the parkso it has a chance to be fielded. So what Met pitchers from 2010 look like good bets for the upcoming season?
Well, it looks like Johan Santana may be needed more than ever. The other projected starters- Pelfrey, Dickey, Niese and Gee all fall short of qualifying. Of these players, Dickey has the most potential, since his strikeout rate was the only low number. Niese let up a few too many homers, and Pelfrey and Gee need to exhibit better control. The good news is that we may have some good relievers going into next year. K-Rod’s stats predict that he can still be effective, and Parnell and Takahashi could form a formidable righty/lefty platoon in the 8th inning. Takahashi seems to have more upside than Perpetual Pedro Feliciano, whose numbers are indicative of a downward trend. Manny Acosta forecasts as another solid arm in the pen. Falling short on the list were Valdez, Dessens, Ollie P (say it aint so!), Igarashi, and Sean Green.
11 comments
njstuckintx
10/24/2010-6:29pm at 6:29 pm (UTC -4)
I wish this was longer and started looking at FA’s and other potential trade options.
rustyjr
10/24/2010-6:40pm at 6:40 pm (UTC -4)
Btw guys from our friend Ed at mmo
They Lost, They Lost
(Sing to the music of “New York, New York”)
Start spreading the news… We’re crying today.
The Yanks wont be a part of it. They Lost, They Lost.
These overpaid boobs… Won’t have their parade.
I can’t believe how bad they were, Out-played, Out-played.
I want to throw up in that shithole in the Bronx,
Where they serve warm cups of beer… and charge twenty bucks.
These Yankeetown blues… Won’t soon go away.
They just can’t face the fact that they – were so disgraced…
If they can make one plea.
They’d get down on their knees.
Please come and save our ass… Cliff Lee.
Ah yes, it was so sweet to see their strategy of not pitching to the new “Yankee Killer” Josh Hamilton, burn in flames.
njstuckintx
10/24/2010-6:44pm at 6:44 pm (UTC -4)
We want to skewer Ollie for his lack of production and his bloated contract… AJ’s contract is going to make Ollie’s look like child’s play.
metsfan4decades
10/25/2010-1:29am at 1:29 am (UTC -4)
Nice.
And this title says it all last night in Philly:
‘No Joy in Philly; Mighty Howard has Stuck Out’
njstuckintx
10/24/2010-6:55pm at 6:55 pm (UTC -4)
And, I’ll put it here as 2011 pitching is mentioned above.
Where does Graze fit on the above LIMA rating?
Would Shield’s stock being down mean the Ray’s would be more inclined to keep or trade him?
Justin Dereschurscheruhschuerher piques my curiosity.
I was formerly for signing Javy Vazquez, but now I’m getting scared. If he would come at 1 year, 4.5 mil, I’d take him, but I still am leaning in a non-Javy direction.
I didn’t realize that Taka’s nickname is Hasi.
Lastly, Are the Met’s on Greinke’s no trade clause?
metsfan4decades
10/25/2010-1:20am at 1:20 am (UTC -4)
I don’t know about Vazquez. Even 4 or 5 million for a guy that was left off the Yankees post season roster seems like a lot.
Greinke…is that the pitcher with the anxiety disorder? If yes, NY might not be a perfect match.
TRS86
10/25/2010-9:03am at 9:03 am (UTC -4)
Think about this. If you could get Zito on a 1 year 4-5M contract would it bother you that he was left off the Giants roster?
metsfan4decades
10/25/2010-9:24am at 9:24 am (UTC -4)
Um…who’s our pitching coach going to be? Can he fix what ails Zito?
TRS86
10/25/2010-9:34am at 9:34 am (UTC -4)
Zito ailed himself to a 4.15 ERA in 200 innings this year and has had back to back decent seasons. Not worth 18M for sure but 4-5? easily. Yet he was left off the roster. Again I can’t pay much attention to who is on or off the roster because that can vary based on who they are facing or how many starters they think they may need, or even if that guy can pitch from the pen.
njstuckintx
10/25/2010-9:35am at 9:35 am (UTC -4)
Factor in some $$$ for Xanax and your good to go!
metsfan4decades
10/25/2010-1:18am at 1:18 am (UTC -4)
Good post. I’m so ignorant when it comes to all things sabermetrics. I’m trying to come up to speed some but since I’m somewhat Math deficient the articles I try and read has my eyes glazing over by the second paragraph.
This one here, giving the basics of evaluating pitching stats in smaller ‘top 3 things to look at’, makes it far easier for me to follow along. LOL.
Watching just about every season game though, my eyes tell me what this article seems to support. I just hope guys like Niese and Parnell, for instance, are young enough yet to still improve on these ratios.