Here’s candidate 6, applying for Saber Guy.
The Next R.A. Dickey??
With word that this week’s second interviews with ownership were going to be focused on Sandy Alderson and Josh Byrnes’ plans for next season, I thought I’d take a look at some realistic options for improving the club, starting with, aptly enough, starting pitching. One thing Mets fans will have to look forward to, regardless of who’s chosen to replace Omar Minaya, is a GM who understands (if not relies on) advanced statistical metrics. This is particularly vital for the Mets this off-season, because there is limited money to be spent, and the real value in “sabermetrics” is to identify players that other teams under value for one reason or another. To be sure, GM’s like Omar are capable of finding the occasional R.A. Dickey in the rough, so to speak, but that’s more a function of luck than any real skill. And remember, past pitching depth in the Minaya regime included such gems as Jeremi Gonzalez.
One thing is for sure, the Mets will need at least two additional starters to begin next season. On opening day, the only “sure things” are Pelfrey, Dickey and Niese. Dillon Gee and Pat Misch are certainly options for the 5th starter role, but the team would still need more pitchers in the (likely) event that one or more starters from the current group are either injured or ineffective.
I, like any other Mets fan, would love to see the team sign Cliff Lee. However, there’s a better chance of James Dolan being a five-day champion on Jeopardy.
So, what are the Mets alternatives? The good news is that it should be relatively easy for the Mets to use some fairly well known advanced statistics to identify and sign for little money, a couple of starters on the open market who will at the very least provide rotation depth, and at best, see at least one of them become the 2011 R.A. Dickey.
In general, so-called “advanced” pitching statistics are based on the principle that the stats we as fans normally think of when we evaluate pitching – Wins, Losses, and ERA – are not the most accurate predictors of how pitchers: a) really pitched that season; and more importantly: b) are going to pitch in future seasons. The reason this is true is fairly straightforward; the normal stats don’t tell us about luck, they don’t tell us about defense, and they don’t adjust for a pitcher’s home ball park (where we can expect at least half of his innings to come from). The last point is particularly significant for the Mets, who are in a ballpark that suppresses home runs. All other things being equal, a fly-ball pitcher is going to be more effective pitching in Citi Field as opposed to, say, Citizens Bank Bandbox.
To identify who the Mets might pursue, I looked at the upcoming free agent pool, as well as mlbtraderumors.com’s likely non-tender list, as well as pitchers who have been rumored to be available in a trade, and then checked that list against some advanced pitching statistics that Baseball Prospectus makes available. In particular, I was looking for three things. First, a pitcher with a high percentage of fly-balls allowed, with the theory being that a pitcher who allowed a lot of fly-balls might benefit from a move to Citi Field. Second, I wanted a pitcher who had a lower SIERA than his actual ERA. What does this mean? Basically, SIERA is a way to determine what a pitcher’s ERA should have been. Finally, I was looking for pitchers who had an abnormally high BABIP last season (Sorry Gary, Keith and Ron). BABIP
tells us how hitters did when they put the ball in play against a particular pitcher. The MLB average is around .300, but some pitchers do seem to vary consistently from that average so it is helpful to check the season mark against career norms.
Without further adue, some potential “finds” for the 2011 NY Mets.
1) Rich Harden—Last year, he signed a one-year $7 million contract with Texas. He was horrible. But I think he is likely to bounce back at Citi Field. Pitching for Texas meant pitching in the Ballpark at Arlington, a hitters haven. Harden gave up fly-balls 38.7% of the time, the highest in baseball for any starting pitcher with more than 10 starts. Unsurprisingly, Harden gave up 18 home runs in only 92 IP last year. In contrast, in 2004, when he threw 190 innings, he only gave up 16 homers while pitching half his time in the pitcher-friendly Coliseum. Further, while his SIERA was a high 5.22, it was lower than his actual ERA of 5.58. The only warning sign – his BABIP was a low (although not out of the ordinary for Harden) .279. But, we’re not looking for Cy Young here, just someone who can be a good value. After this past season, Harden could probably be had for around $1 million next season plus incentives.
2) Charlie Morton—He’s not a Free Agent, yet, but Pittsburgh probably won’t bring him back after he went 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA. Nonetheless, I think he’d do a lot better pitching at Citi Field next season. First, his BABIP (like many on Pittsburgh’s staff last season) was an outrageously high .369 – basically the entire league was like Josh Hamilton against him. In contrast, the league hit .290 against him in 2008 and .315 against him in 2009. Even if his numbers go back to the 2009 total, he’s due for a far better 2011. Morton’s SIERA was also 4.26, which demonstrates he pitched much better than his actual ERA indicates. His FB% was only 25.1 percent and PNC Park isn’t great for hitters either. Nonetheless, it seems Morton was just a victim of some bad luck and should be poised for a bounceback 2011 and won’t cost more than $750k.
3) Aaron Harang—Long identified as someone who might be a quality pickup for the Mets, he is a classic example of a pitcher who would benefit from a change in scenery. Forced to pitch in Great American Ball Park, Harang’s fly-ball tendencies have turned him from a dominant starter to a mediocre one (Dusty Baker’s handling of him hasn’t helped either). Last year, Harang had an astronomical .345 BABIP with a fly ball percentage of 32.1 percent. His SIERA was 4.44, nearly a full run lower than his actual 5.32 ERA. Think of Harang as a bizarro Jason Bay, a veteran who comes to Citi Field only to see the homers he allows turn into fly balls to the warning track. Can’t see him signing for more than $3 million.
4) James Shields—Rumor is the Rays may try and trade “Big Game” James. If so, the Mets should have interest. Shields had an awful 2010, most likely penance for stats in past seasons that outpaced his true talent. In 2011, out of the AL East and pitching in Citi Field, Shields would be poised to once again excel. While Shields didn’t give up an especially large number of fly-balls (28.7%), his BABIP was .345 and his SIERA was 3.57, nearly two runs below his 5.18 ERA. For perspective, Johan’s SIERA before he was hurt was 4.18, more than half a run higher than Shields’. While Shields won’t come as cheaply as some other names
on this list (he is due to make $4.25 million next season), he likely offers the greatest reward.
In short, the Mets can make their rotation better for 2011, and don’t need Cliff Lee to do it.
24 comments
Ceetar
10/25/2010-9:10am at 9:10 am (UTC -4)
The problem here is that R.A. Dickey was likely the best guy the Mets could’ve gotten last year, and they got him. And advanced statistics wouldn’t have predicted that.
unfortunately this is an oversimplification. It’s not relatively easy to do this. Because almost all(I think it’s 28 or 29) GMs in 2010, (including Omar) have advanced statistical analysis as part of their process. Everyone knows King Felix is freaking awesome, despite his record. (that’s an exaggeration, but there aren’t a lot of 5-12 guys out there with 4+ ERAs that people think suck but really are awesome)
Guys that are good, will have demand. Realy it’s not advanced stats the new guy should be looking for in this case, but looking for where maybe the stats are misleading. Maybe a guy had decreased Ks last year. Look for a reasonable reason why that was the outlier. maybe he had head problems b ut boras sent him to a shrink, or he had a nagging injury that never cleared up, but you’re confident it’s better now. have the new pitching coach be awesome, and identify a flaw in his delivery that he thinks he can fix and take a flyer on him.
For instance, didn’t advanced stats suggest Javier Vazquez was going to have an awsome year?
TRS86
10/25/2010-9:22am at 9:22 am (UTC -4)
Actually I thought that most adv. stats predicted a major decline from Vazquez?
Ceetar
10/25/2010-9:33am at 9:33 am (UTC -4)
Did they? It’s hard to keep up. I thought with his strikeout rates and what not, he was expected to keep doing well, maybe not 2009 well, but..
Then again, he did get traded for not very much.
TRS86
10/25/2010-9:34am at 9:34 am (UTC -4)
I think stats like his BABIP etc showed a major regression.
Ceetar
10/25/2010-9:45am at 9:45 am (UTC -4)
It’s really easy to use some stats to make a case for a lot of things. While obviously the Mets should continue to use advanced metrics, I think it’s important to not over-rely. Sure, if you want to take a flyer on a guy because you see some evidence here and there, that he’ll be good..
Also need to factor in use. More so in relievers, but how a manager things and will utilize a guy is important. If you sign a reliever cause he has good lefty splits but teh manager uses him against righties or a a groundball guy but you don’t overly trust your defense (say you sign a Uggla type for 2B…)
For instance, was Vazquez’s BABIP bad because he was letting up a lot of hits, or because his defense sucked? (the range of the Yankees defense was not exactly great either)
njstuckintx
10/25/2010-9:37am at 9:37 am (UTC -4)
Welcome back Ceet. How was paradise?
Ceetar
10/25/2010-9:41am at 9:41 am (UTC -4)
Awesome. to understate it.
Prismo
10/25/2010-9:42am at 9:42 am (UTC -4)
Hey Ceetar…RDM is searching for a new sabermetrician blogger…and you comment basically saying how terrible advanced statistics are. Just sayin’!
Ceetar
10/25/2010-9:46am at 9:46 am (UTC -4)
Not trying to say that. Just tempering it a bit.
Personally I’d like to have some discussions with a more down to earth type saber guy, and I’m going to rail on advanced statistics, despite feeling they have a lot of value, all winter, because I (and everyone else) knows they still have a lot of flaws and I want to understand them better, but I need to work out some of these issues myself. I want to know what’s a flaw, and what’s an insight that I’m not grasping when I look at them.
Prismo
10/25/2010-9:50am at 9:50 am (UTC -4)
Well hey, all stats are flawed then. Until we do CATscans on all players and come up with metrics for “feelings” and “comfortableness in a new ballpark” and “mental stability” we’re always missing a huge (possibly the biggest) factor in success.
Ceetar
10/25/2010-10:02am at 10:02 am (UTC -4)
it’s why small samples fail. Because all stats are in some way flawed and you can’t know what a player is thinking at any given point. is he stressed out, over thinking it? does he have a cold? is his arm sorer than normal? all play in.
So it’s not reading the stat sheet I want to see in a new GM. They already have guys that do that. If it was that simple we could just have a computer system pick players, but it’s not that simple. So what can the new GM bring that utlizies those stats, among other things, to make the right choices?
Prismo
10/25/2010-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
Unfortunately we can’t hire Sandy Alderson as our new blogger.
Ceetar
10/25/2010-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
We can’t? why? Have you asked him?
metsfan4decades
10/25/2010-9:42am at 9:42 am (UTC -4)
Welcome back, Ceetar. Hope you and your new bride had a great time.
Aren’t you and potential author #6 really saying the same thing though? Look below – or beyond – the stats for the reason why on poor performance and try determine who might likely rebound and who are just what their stats tout them as being?
Ceetar
10/25/2010-9:49am at 9:49 am (UTC -4)
In a way, but I think this post is suggesting that the stats are some mystical secret that Omar didn’t use, and that many people aren’t using. But they are and were, and those diamond in the rough, 2011 Dickeys, are not as easily found as reading through a stat sheet. I’m not overly concerned about how much of a stat-guy a new GM is, I’m more concerned with the baseball stuff, with how he reads those stats, and other factors.
metsfan4decades
10/25/2010-9:39am at 9:39 am (UTC -4)
Great post.
Regarding Harden: Those 18 HR last year….last year right after we signed Bay someone here (Prismo? Dirty? can’t remember), put up a graph to show how many of the HRs Bay hit the year before would actually be a HR at Citi.
I’d like to know how many of Harden’s HR balls are still traveling and/or how many given up at Arlington would have been just fly balls at Citi.
Prismo
10/25/2010-9:43am at 9:43 am (UTC -4)
Yeah that was me…and I think it was around 30HR that would still be out in CitiField. Obviously that did not translate, but it was due to Bay much more than CitiField.
metsfan4decades
10/25/2010-9:45am at 9:45 am (UTC -4)
I kind of remembered it was you.
Those charts stuck in my head translating that even though Bay wasn’t likely to hit 40+ HRs again, he still would be considered a HR threat.
Looking at potential pitchers and HRs given up, I hope the GM looks at these type of stats as well.
Prismo
10/25/2010-10:08am at 10:08 am (UTC -4)
I shutter to think of how much Bay killed the Met lineup last season (TRS might disagree, for some reason).
If he plays at career norms in 2011, the Mets actually have a very good offense. Reyes/Wright/Bay/Pagan/Beltran(if healthy) are all well above-average hitters at their positions. With closer-to-average offense at 1B, C, and hopefully 2B, the Mets’ offense has the potential to actually be very good. I’m hoping that a new manager can bring the best out in the team so they can compete.
njstuckintx
10/25/2010-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
Yes. Note to Sandy. Spend all your money on pitching.
TRS86
10/25/2010-10:58am at 10:58 am (UTC -4)
Be careful what you wish for. How about
Note to Sandy, please use your resources to get us good pitchers.
njstuckintx
10/25/2010-11:03am at 11:03 am (UTC -4)
I can alter my above statement to mirror yours.
TRS86
10/25/2010-11:06am at 11:06 am (UTC -4)
I think you get my point. This off-season would be a VERY dangerous one to go out and spend a ton of money on.
TRS86
10/25/2010-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)
Never said he did not hurt the team. His season was very poor by his standards. However, I think my point was it was not as bad as some were saying and I saw no reason for it to continue the rest of his career.