Yet another article from a prospective author: Candidate 7 applying for minor league guru.
New York Mets 2011 Outlook: Evaluating Second Base Production
In projecting next year’s Mets roster, and in doing so formulating a potential offseason strategy, the new GM will certain find that positions to be improved are few and far between. David Wright and Jose Reyes are, to be sure, above average options on the left side of the infield (although a cheap understudy for the fragile Reyes would be welcomed), Ike Davis is the first-baseman of the future, Josh Thole is seemingly the same at catcher, left and center fields are occupied by two behemoth contracts in Beltran and Bay, and Angel Pagan has made an incredibly compelling case to be a starting outfielder. The only position that is really up for grabs, then is the second base spot. Should the Mets spend big, given that it’s their only real question mark? Or are there viable in-house options? Let’s look at the choices for 2011 one-by-one.
Choice One: Ruben Tejada
The unsexy choice and probably the one that the new GM/Manager combination will make. Common sense would say that considering Tejada’s remarkable achievements relative to his age (having made the roster on Opening Day he was the youngest player in the MLB at the time) he should project as a markedly better player a few years down the road with even more seasoning; however, the same skill-set that made Tejada ready for MLB-duty at 20 also make his room for improvement less dramatic. Tejada has never hit above a .290 batting average in 4 years of professional baseball, and projects about as much pop as Luis Castillo (28 career homers, attention must be paid!).
In the field, Tejada has demonstrated strong potential, but perhaps not enough to compensate for his meager production. Tejada had spent much of his minor league career at shortstop, and 2010 was very much a trial by fire: his UZR rating at second was a well-below average -3.5, while his UZR at shortstop was a remarkably average .2 (in a very small sample). Should Mets fans consider Tejada as comparable to cult-hero Rey Ordonez, they would do well to take pause; even if Tejada were close to equalling Ordonez’s talent (a 13.1 UZR in 2002), those Met teams were receiving above-average production from second base and catcher, a luxury the 2011 Mets will certainly not have. While Tejada’s bat is probably not going to benefit from any more minor league seasoning, he could use more reps at second-base; if the Mets are truly looking to compete in 2011, Ruben Tejada probably isn’t starting more than 50 games.
Choice Two: Daniel Murphy
Daniel Murphy has been the forgotten man in the Mets system this year, both because of his injury and the ascendance of wunderkind Ike Davis. His production in the Dominican Winter League will give the Mets a good idea of what his value will be (after going hitless his first two games he was 3-4 with 3 doubles Sunday). Murphy is unlikely to be even average defensively; the organization’s reluctance to admit defeat on the Luis Castillo contract, as well as a rash of injuries, have meant that Murphy has yet to receive any meaningful seasoning at second base. His above average UZR-rating at first-base (a fairly solid 5.8) suggests he has the quick instincts to play second, although his range probably cannot compare to Tejada.
Unlike Tejada, however, Murphy’s bat can compensate. If Murphy can return to his 2009 form (or even better, the .313/.397/.473 numbers of late 2008) then the Mets can put up with his defensive adventures. Unlike Tejada, Murphy’s bat gives the Mets a variety of line-up options. His strong situation hitting would function well in the 2-hole, while his power would play lower in the line-up as well. Tejada is clearly destined to bat eighth in the order. But after a season away from the game, and with a new position to learn in addition to rehabilitating his bat, it may very well be too much to ask for Daniel Murphy to return to form, or even improve, in time for Opening Day.
Option Three: Platoon the Two
Probably the most likely option. In 54 at-bats last year against left-handed pitching Ruben Tejada hit a solid .296, while Murphy hit a meager .223 in 2009. Against right-handers, Murphy was .294 while Tejada an unreal .185. Despite Tejada’s seeming strength against left-handers, look for Murphy to get a good portion of starts against left-handers too, particularly as the season goes on and his familiarity with the position improves. Tejada, as we mentioned earlier, would certainly serve as a strong late-inning defensive replacement and an excellent, not to mention cheap, Reyes insurance policy. Both Tejada and Murphy give the team plenty of options, so even if the Mets look elsewhere for second base help I’d be willing to bet both will still make the club come April.
Option Four: Sign a Free Agent
This is the only position the Mets could plausibly splurge on a free agent if they so choose, so what free agent options are out there? For what seems like the millionth year in a row, Orlando Hudson is once again the cream of the second base crop. A type-B free agent, O-Dawg has expressed a desire to play in New York in the past, although years of being spurned in favor of Luis Castillo may finally have caught up to him. Hudson is likely to sign a deal similar to his 1-year, $5 million contract with Twins; a team that offers him multiple years will probably win him. Is he enough improvement over the cheaper Murphy/Tejada tandem?
In terms of dollar value, Hudson is still likely to be a bargain; fangraphs.com has this year’s production valued at $12.5 million, making his current contract a serious steal. He similarly outproduced his 2009 deal with the Dodgers, so Hudson seems a safe bet to exceed his contractual value. He brings a little pop to the position (6 homers in 126 games this year, 9 in 149 last year) and a career .424 slugging percentage (not a great figure but positively Ruthian in comparison to Castillo’s .268, for example) and should provide around a .275 average. Ultimately, Murphy against righties is probably a better bat, whereas defensively Hudson more than makes up for the difference (last year’s 9.8 UZR rating was sensational, although admittedly a career year not likely to be duplicated exactly). Murphy’s struggles against lefties and Tejada’s struggles against everybody would say that if the Mets are serious about a playoff run in 2011, they should sign Hudson. Since that is not likely to be the case, and Hudson might very well finally be wanting a multi-year deal that could potentially block the oft-injured prospect Reese Havens, it’s unlikely we’re going to see such a deal go down.
Other free agent options include former Mets Anderson Hernandez, Melvin Mora, Kaz Matsui and Alex Cora, as well as David Eckstein and Felipe Lopez; none represent much of an improvement and certainly not a significant enough improvement to merit consideration over the tandem.
The Verdict?
This team probably isn’t making the playoffs next year, barring a major injection of money that probably would handcuff them down the road. With a spending spree, they can really benefit by adding Hudson and shifting Murphy in Tejada into bench roles they are much better suited for. However since that is unlikely to be the case, the Mets should make do with what they have. Spring training performance should determine how time is split, but a platoon of Murphy and Tejada, with Murphy in the lead, gives this team its best option to win next year (again, barring a shopping spree) and, considering Murphy’s upside, it gives the team its best option developmentally.
40 comments
njstuckintx
10/27/2010-9:16am at 9:16 am (UTC -4)
Like the article, but is this a minor league guru focused post?
njstuckintx
10/27/2010-9:29am at 9:29 am (UTC -4)
Let me elaborate a little. The above article was good. It does point out the general choices for the Mets to make. Nothing outside the box, but then again, I don’t think they need to leave the box for this choice.
What I would have liked to have seen would have been breakdowns and indepth analysis on Havens, Satin and others who might be knock knock knocking on Guns and Rose’s Door.
CaseStreet
10/27/2010-9:23am at 9:23 am (UTC -4)
Throwing in the towel already, sheesh. Nice summary. I ultimately agree with the conclusion of sticking with the in-house options and see who might be available during the trade deadline. Any of these 2012 free agents may be a possible trade option:
Clint Barmes (33)
Robinson Cano (29) – $14MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Luis Castillo (36)
Aaron Hill (30) – $8MM club option for 2012, $8MM club option for ’13, $10MM club option for ’14
Kelly Johnson (30)
Jose Lopez (28)
Augie Ojeda (37)
Brandon Phillips (31) – $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Freddy Sanchez (34)
Dan Uggla (32)
Rickie Weeks (29)
Obviously Cano won’t be available, but by waiting till the mid-season we can see what we have in-house and decide if a trade is needed.
njstuckintx
10/27/2010-9:42am at 9:42 am (UTC -4)
If we are assuming the Mets are working under a self imposed cap, I’d say just go in house. If they have flexibility, meaning after SP and RP + 2 bench guys (backup C and maybe back up CF) have been settled, then by all means, go out and get them. Hill might be able to be had at a discount considering the bad year he had this past.
TRS86
10/27/2010-9:54am at 9:54 am (UTC -4)
Hey can we recruit this guy over here?
“Pegleg52
Oct 27, 2010, 9:20 am at 9:20 am #
You’re exactly right. This Winter they must get 2-3 professional pitchers NOT STARS through trade (Randy Wolf?) or free agency (De LaRosa? Vasquez with incentives?); keep Beltran to let him play his butt off in a contract year; get a profession catcher because Thole will struggle at times— Hire an AGRESSIVE MANAGER and keep Hale and Worthen. Hire an entirely new training staff. Use the Spring to assess Johan’s injury, who is for real between Duda, FMart, Tejada, Murphy, CaptKirk, Reese, Holt, Mejia and Gee. Play April May and June, and if you’re not in it, trade the older assets, Beltran, Pagan KRod and Johan. Then make the whole thing into and Alderson run team.”
metro
10/27/2010-9:59am at 9:59 am (UTC -4)
Santana is possibly the most untradable player in baseball with his injury/contract. Even if 100% healthy the Mets would need to kick in SERIOUS coin to move him.
Prismo
10/27/2010-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
Why would they trade Pagan in any scenario, and how is he an “older” asset? What is he, 29?
metro
10/27/2010-10:07am at 10:07 am (UTC -4)
I’m not “for” trading Pagan but they would be smart to listen. If a team is willing to cough up a young pitcher (Garza? Part of a deal for Greinke) I think the Mets would be foolish to turn it down. And yes he’s 29.
Prismo
10/27/2010-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
I probably wouldn’t.
Trading a young, inexpensive, almost-star player (yes, he’s played that well) under contract for 2 seasons doesn’t make sense to me.
Prismo
10/27/2010-10:12am at 10:12 am (UTC -4)
Sounds like something the Pirates or Marlins would do.
TRS86
10/27/2010-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
I think the point is that IF say Fmart or Kirk come up and are really knocking on the door and you can fill a need with Pagan then you do it.
njstuckintx
10/27/2010-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
I think the key is “the right deal”. No one is untradeable, if that is a word or not. Flipping pagan for something marginally better? Nah, you probably hold onto him. If it is part of something grand that improves the team. You have to at least consider it. Considering that Pagan is more than likely slotted to be the CF option for the team come 2012, his value needs to be elevated, but if an option comes in that is above that perceived value… well, you see my point, hopefully.
TRS86
10/27/2010-10:14am at 10:14 am (UTC -4)
Yeah I don’t buy the trading Johan part as that would really make no sense considering his contract and our need for an ace. However, the rest of his plan is reasonable. As for right now I would not trade Pagan, however, if one fo those guys he mentions steps up yet we are still out of it then perhaps it’s worth the reward.
kistics
10/27/2010-11:01am at 11:01 am (UTC -4)
Sounds like a decent plan, but I would also try to trade for a #1/#2 type of pitcher if possible using the few valuable pieces the Mets may have. Probably unlikely though…
I’m in agreement with all you guys that Johan is probably unlikely candidate to be moved for whatever the reason is, but KRod’s contract isn’t all that attractive either. His 2012 option will scare other teams for sure.
Only decent piece to trade in ‘older assets’ is healthy Beltran & Pagan. With Beltran, the Mets will probably have to eat a lot of his salary. And I would not move Pagan unless you are getting an ace type of pitcher back.
metro
10/27/2010-9:56am at 9:56 am (UTC -4)
Don’t waste money on “crap” the mets already have Tejada, Murphy and Turner. I would sign Eckstein to be the “mentor/utility player/Alex Cora” type (nobody works harder or is considered a better teammate than Eckstein, he would be a nice veteran to go with the kids) and Alderson already had him in SD. Eckstein last 244 games… 2 errors.
njstuckintx
10/27/2010-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
What will he cost?
metro
10/27/2010-10:01am at 10:01 am (UTC -4)
Eckstein made 1 million this year. I’d offer him 1-1.5 million. For the record I’m not some Eckstein fanboy who thinks he is great when he is not. I just believe we should go with what we have and have a veteran to go with them. I met Eckstein in SD and he was incredibly nice, he had a tough childhood, is considered a GREAT guy. I think a hard worker like that would be nice with a young team.
njstuckintx
10/27/2010-10:07am at 10:07 am (UTC -4)
So, he adds grit and credibility.
If we go on the assumption that the extra 1.5-ish mil would in no way affect other signings (De La Rosa or Vazquez or something comparable) that are needed, I could endorse signing the Eck. Cause if it does affect BP or SP signings, I’ll pass.
(I feel like we’ve been so brainwashed into worrying about the payroll and such that I have to stipulate everything with assumptions on increase/decrease/maintaining payroll. it’s getting annoying.)
Your 2011 Mets. “It’s about being credible.”
metro
10/27/2010-10:15am at 10:15 am (UTC -4)
I mean the Mets are going to need to spend SOME money. They currently have 1 catcher (they will need to sign one), they are unlikely to carry Fernando Martinez as a 4th OF (so they will need to find one somewhere) and they will likely sign a ss/2b of the utility variety as carrying Tejada as a bench player doesn’t make sense and if Tejada is the starting 2b then you don’t have a backup SS on the roster. I’m not going nuts to sign David Eckstein but 1 year 1-1.5 million I think is a worthy investment with guys like Tejada, Murphy (he might be able to teach Murphy how to get by at 2b with less than ideal physical tools) and even the non-middle IF guys like Davis, Thole etc could learn from a guy who has very little talent but huge heart.
TRS86
10/27/2010-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
Can’t we get… I don’t know coaches or managers to teach the young players how to play with heart and griiiiiiiiiiiiiittttttttt?
Prismo
10/27/2010-10:28am at 10:28 am (UTC -4)
Where did the notion that players coming up from the minors need to be taught this stuff at all? It’s not like they haven’t been working their butts off for most of their lives to get into the bigs.
The only real benefit to a veteran is maybe during a team’s slump, when the younger/immature players need to get out of their funk – in that scenario, I could see a vet helping lift the team back up.
Other than young, from what I’ve seen, most young players are excited, hungry, and hard-working.
TRS86
10/27/2010-10:51am at 10:51 am (UTC -4)
A team with championship hopes might need to bring in some been there done that guys to get them through slumps. However, IF most of us are saying at best next year is a wait and see year then why on Earth would we put those types of players on the team to be bench guys? Again I could see if it was in the pitching staff because someone is not ready but at 2B we have plenty of internal options that can match or exceed Eckencrappy. Hell I would put money on Tejada’s offensive stats matching his if he was left in the lineup all year.
Ceetar
10/27/2010-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
I’ll pass on Eckstein. I think they need to find a real ‘talent’ at 2B, and I’d rather keep Castillo than Eckstein if we’re going that route. It shouldn’t be Tejada, he’s not ready, nor seems to be very good. 2B is not an easy fix, but it’s the position of flexibility right now.
I liked Blanco, but I think they need to find a slightly younger backup type guy. Someone they can play a little more heavily when Thole is slumping.
TRS86
10/27/2010-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
David Eckencrappy is a BAD baseball player and we should waste NO money on that type of player. Grit and hustle be damned he is just not any good. His stats are Luis Castillo like, period. Even the Pads are looking to upgrade from Eckencrappy.
Why on Earth are guys so enamored by him?
metro
10/27/2010-10:21am at 10:21 am (UTC -4)
He would make a very nice backup SS/2b on a young team and had 0 errors all year. You could do a lot worse. Young players need players to follow. Eckstein is that type of guy.
Ceetar
10/27/2010-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
Err..how about Reyes? Works hard, passionate, enjoys his job… what better example to follow?
Prismo
10/27/2010-10:26am at 10:26 am (UTC -4)
Haven’t you heard, Ceetar? Reyes is immature, childish, a baby, a slacker, doesn’t care, a braggart, overrated, injury-prone, etc.
metsfan4decades
10/27/2010-11:15am at 11:15 am (UTC -4)
+1 sigh……
I had to laugh yesterday listening to the Fracessa show. He was talking about the Jeter contract. Saying that Jeter will be resigned but won’t be playing no 150+ games anymore. They’re going to get a young SS with good defensive skills that they can work with bat wise, as heir apparent.
Francessa says: ‘You don’t need to bring in any premier SS like Reyes or Ramirez here. Don’t get me wrong, they wouldn’t turn down Reyes but he’ll cost a ton of money and/or prospects b/c he just that good’.
hahahahaha. I guess it’s only David Wright Francessa has a problem with.
TRS86
10/27/2010-10:32am at 10:32 am (UTC -4)
The guy is Luis Castillo without the BA and OBP. The guy has not had an OBP over .350 since 2007 and has had one season in his career with over a .300 BA. His highest slugging percentage of his career was still not over .400. He has little to no speed and has not been a SB threat since his rookie season. He makes few errors but his fielding stats were suddenly high this year after 5 average to below average seasons showing that this year was most likely a fluke. Just as the same stats show Castillo as a positive defender this year.
metro
10/27/2010-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
The Mets should be careful with Kirk. His bb/k needs work and rushing him could really “ruin” him
TRS86
10/27/2010-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
I too would not rush any of our guys. Even Tejada may be better served in AAA for another year.
rustyjr
10/27/2010-10:27am at 10:27 am (UTC -4)
May we observe a moment of silence to commemorate the 24th anny of our last world series championship
metsfan4decades
10/27/2010-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
Oh, Happy Days they were.
wannybackstra
10/27/2010-11:03am at 11:03 am (UTC -4)
Was there a post last night concerning Reyes? I can’t seem to find it but I could swear I saw it last night.
metsfan4decades
10/27/2010-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
I didn’t see any post on Reyes here at TRDMB as of midnight last night.
I’ve seen a few this morning around like this one at Fangraph’s on Monday:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pending-options-spotlight-jose-reyes/
TRS86
10/27/2010-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
http://realdirtymets.com/2010/10/24/trdm-author-search-candidate-3/
oleosmirf
10/27/2010-11:04am at 11:04 am (UTC -4)
Eckstein should only be considered as a utility player at this point. It makes no sense for a most-likely non contending team like the Mets to bring in a veteran. However I would certainly rather have Eckstein than Joaquin Arias, Ramon Martinez or Luis Hernandez.
I still have serious doubts about Murphy’s ability to play 2nd base at even a Dan Uggla/Ty Wigginton level but I will certainly give him the opportunity to prove me wrong b/c his 2009 numbers at 2B would be huge. I also am skeptical of Tejada’s ability to hit but he did bat .300 in September so who knows.
given the fact that Santana is done for most of the year, the mets really shouldnt be looking at the premier FAs and stop-gaps but rather what we have in-house and focus on the removal of Perez, Castillo and Beltran (should he have good value that is).
TRS86
10/27/2010-11:20am at 11:20 am (UTC -4)
How much better though is Eckencrappy over those guys you mentioned? Is he 2-3 times as good? That’s what he would be paid.
stickguy
10/27/2010-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
I would still go with a turner option instead of Eckstein. At least there is the chance he could do something offensively off the bench!
And other than that, I am fine with going into ST looking at the open competition for 2B among the in house and cheap options. Sadly, that includes slappy if they haven’t moved him (but I really, relaly hope he is gone).
Let the best man win. The rest get sent to the bench, the minors, or in slappy’s case, cut.
Too bad some of the more interesting guys (the ones tht can hit) are maybe still a year away. Havens could be ready if healthy, but the satin, valdespin group would be a stretch jumping from AA to the majors to start the year.
But, with so many guys potentially ready by 2012 (or to do a Wright in 2011 and force there way up by mid-season), they should not waste money going out to get a FA.
Actually, that is also a reason to keep Castillo around to start the season if he looks OK in ST. Hold the spot until one of the kids forces him out, then try to trade him.
oleosmirf
10/27/2010-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
i still think it was a real shame Turner was not brought up here when rosters expanded but what would be even worse is if Castillo was on the roster. a rebuilding team with very little chance at the playoffs has no business having a declining Castillo as the starter. also he can’t be a bench player b/c he can only play one position you dont carry 2 MI on the bench.
i agree with Murphy/Tejada/Turner/Satin etc. competing in ST and let the best man win although if Murphy can play a capable 2B, he has got to be the preferred option.