I’ve been lucky enough to have been chosen as the new “sabermetric guy” around here. And I’ve been chosen just as the Mets have hired their first sabermetrically inclined General Manager. That’s great for the Mets — but at first glance it’s less great if you want to blog about them from a sabermetric perspective. For example, think of how much fun the Jeff Francoeur era could have been for me?
So, if complaining’s out, what’s left? Well, I hope to do a few things. First, hopefully I’ll be able to explain some of the thinking behind some of the things the new regime is doing; trying to put off the inevitable uprising when Jose Reyes no longer bats leadoff (and believe me that day is coming); or argue that a manager as middle-management makes perfect sense. Second, Alderson et al may not always get it right. I’m a believer in advanced stats, but I think they don’t always tell the full story. Sometimes stats do lie. So, if Alderson relies too heavily on some of the advanced fielding metrics to make player decisions, I’ll be the at the front of the line to be critical. And finally, I’ll continue what I did in my tryout articles, give my own views on the type of moves that make sense for the Mets.
You might be wondering, what makes me qualified to do what I’ve just set out above. Well, I work with economic concepts in my day job (but not as an economist), and at their core sabermetrics are really just forms of applied economics. I read Moneyball, I’ve been a BP subscriber for 7 years and I insisted that my fantasy league include xFIP and next year will fight for SIERA.
But I suspect the qualifications you really care about are the ones that have to do with how big a fan I am. There, I feel confident. I’m 28, and I became a real fan at the age of 5 during the ’87 season. The first time I ever cursed was to say that Jeff Innis “sucked.” I wasn’t a fan in ’86, but I did (as a child) watch the ’86 Mets video at least 100 times. I remember Terry Pendleton’s homer off Roger McDowell; the following year I wrote my name as David Cone on all my first-grade stories. I cried when he was traded. I know Doc Gooden’s birthday is November 16. I have Paul Wilson and Bobby Jones’ autographs. I won the “lottery”to buy 1998 Mets playoff tickets. I was at the Todd Pratt game and the Benny Agbayani game. But I was also at the Endy Chavez game and the night we began to collapse against the Phils in 2007. And I know all of the above is nothing special because of how much we care.
Oh, and who should the next manager be? As long as he lights up a room, who cares?
117 comments
rustyjr
11/4/2010-8:12am at 8:12 am (UTC -4)
May I be the first of the staff writers to welcome you to the family ! Btw new guy buys breakfast
njstuckintx
11/4/2010-8:57am at 8:57 am (UTC -4)
I thought it was “buys the first round”…
njstuckintx
11/4/2010-8:59am at 8:59 am (UTC -4)
Oh, and yes, welcome to the family.
kingman 26
11/4/2010-9:11am at 9:11 am (UTC -4)
“Metsfan2011 don’t tip?”
“Cough up the buck, ya cheap bastard, I paid for your god**** breakfast!”
OK a buck for who identifies it first!!
njstuckintx
11/4/2010-9:13am at 9:13 am (UTC -4)
Mr. Pink?
kingman 26
11/4/2010-9:16am at 9:16 am (UTC -4)
“Mr Pink don’t tip. he don’t believe in it.
Shut up! Whaddaya mean you don’t tip??”
How many movies have a better opening scene?
kingman 26
11/4/2010-8:22am at 8:22 am (UTC -4)
First off, welcome aboard!
And I have to say that if you are someone who is aware of the clear ridiculousness of Jose Reyes being promoted as a great leadoff hitter with his mediocre OBP and instincts, and refusal to learn to bunt for hits regularly, that’s great.
And your comments about the newest fielding stats are even better, as Jason Bay demolished the ridiculous nature of any stat which graded him as being “defensively challenged” as so many mentally challenged Mets writers and fans bleated a year ago.
I look forward to your pieces, as these opinions are an outstanding start!
And I was 21 when Pendleton hit that homer and that may have been the most painful of all Met regular-season losses. I still believe quite firmly that had we won that game, we may have won 2 or even 3 straight titles. Brutal.
TRS86
11/4/2010-8:38am at 8:38 am (UTC -4)
Welcome to our new saber guru. May you educate us all.
metsfan4decades
11/4/2010-8:53am at 8:53 am (UTC -4)
Welcome!
As one of the older Met fans who participate here just about daily (fortunate to not only experience ’86 but ’69 as well), I’ll be looking forward to a little education about advanced stats. I don’t eve know what SIERA is…
TRS86
11/4/2010-8:59am at 8:59 am (UTC -4)
I THINK it’s a small country off the West Coast of Africa???
rustyjr
11/4/2010-9:02am at 9:02 am (UTC -4)
I think it’s a treasure ! Btw I made my case for Larry Bowa in the previus column
njstuckintx
11/4/2010-9:03am at 9:03 am (UTC -4)
Either that or a wonderful Pale Ale. By the by, is there a recommended site for explanations on all these stats acronyms of doom?
metsfan4decades
11/4/2010-9:09am at 9:09 am (UTC -4)
I’ve been using Hardball Times Glossary, but it too basic anymore. For example, doesn’t reference UZR, let alone Siera.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/#fip
metsfan2011
11/4/2010-9:18am at 9:18 am (UTC -4)
Thanks for the positive feedback everyone. For a glossary, I like this one here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?context=16&category=true I don’t believe a subscription is required.
njstuckintx
11/4/2010-9:21am at 9:21 am (UTC -4)
Well, from that site:
SIERA accounts for how run prevention improves as ground ball rate increases and declines as more whiffs are accrued, while grounders are of more materiality for those who allow a surplus of runners. The formula for SIERA is:
SIERA = 6.145 – 16.986*(SO/PA) + 11.434*(BB/PA) – 1.858*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) + 7.653*((SO/PA)^2) +/– 6.664*(((GB-FB-PU)/PA)^2) + 10.130*(SO/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) – 5.195*(BB/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA)
where the +/- term is a negative sign when (GB-FB-PU)/PA is positive and vice versa.
If you can put that into English for me, you are worth every penny they are paying you for this.
metsfan4decades
11/4/2010-9:44am at 9:44 am (UTC -4)
My head hurts now….
rustyjr
11/4/2010-10:00am at 10:00 am (UTC -4)
Think relaxing thoughts – like the mets winning the ’11 world series with wither Wally or Larry at the helm and Orel Hershiser as pitching coach
stickguy
11/4/2010-10:09am at 10:09 am (UTC -4)
you get more DPs when the batter hits a GB. especially valuable to a guy that lets on a lot of runners. Like Mr. Pelfrey
TRS86
11/4/2010-10:21am at 10:21 am (UTC -4)
Right, which is why Pelfrey was one of the few low K/9 guys to pitch 200 innings. He was 2nd to Livan in lowest K rate.
TRS86
11/4/2010-9:10am at 9:10 am (UTC -4)
That is one of the projects Mr. Metsfan 2011 will be working on!
Ask and you shall receive.
njstuckintx
11/4/2010-9:12am at 9:12 am (UTC -4)
Can I have a pony as well?
Man, humor is bad when you require coffee. Folgers, here I come.
TRS86
11/4/2010-9:14am at 9:14 am (UTC -4)
Folgers? Seriously you are wanting Metsfan to pick up the rounds and you are drinking that cheap crap? LOL.
njstuckintx
11/4/2010-9:17am at 9:17 am (UTC -4)
I prefer the term frugal, and if my options are folgers & Fat Tire or Sierra Nevada vs. Starbucks & Bud Light… Folgers it is.
kingman 26
11/4/2010-9:20am at 9:20 am (UTC -4)
Try Melitta—usually very cheap and I would say by far the best of cheap coffees.
Maybe not as good as Jimmy bought for Jules and Vincent and The Wolf, but still good….
TRS86
11/4/2010-9:44am at 9:44 am (UTC -4)
Harmony Bay has some decent stuff too. You can get it at Walmart and Target.
metsfan2011
11/4/2010-9:25am at 9:25 am (UTC -4)
Thanks for the response. The formula for SIERA isn’t necessary to know, but basically SIERA and most other advanced pitching statistics all have the same aim–to estimate what a pitcher’s real performance is, after ballpark and fielding are removed from the picture. Basically, the thinking is that a pitcher in Citi Field with the ’99 Mets infield defense behind him has a number of advantages that say, a pitcher for the ’96 Rockies wouldn’t have. The stats SIERA relies on to estimate performance are a pitcher’s walk rate, strikeout rate, and groundball rate. The key insight behind the stat (and it’s something I think most baseball fans know intuitively) is that on balance, pitchers who strike out a lot of hitters and/or generate a lot of groundballs, are better than those who give up a lot of line drives.
TRS86
11/4/2010-9:41am at 9:41 am (UTC -4)
Yeah I think it’s difficult for the two communities (the saber and nonsaber) to agree on the fact that there is also a balance in these statistics. They try and measure what already seems logical in many cases and then try and find reasons for the illogical. But just like any normal stat there are exceptions to every rule. It is possible for a fly ball pitcher that does not K a lot of hitters to be successful but it would not be the norm.
metsfan4decades
11/4/2010-9:48am at 9:48 am (UTC -4)
Something I’ve always wondered….
If it’s better to be a strike out type pitcher, wouldn’t that by default limit how deep he goes into a game because his pitch count most times would be higher striking guys out?
Or is the premise, the more you K batters, the less likely someone is on base thereby being more efficient reaching those 27 outs.
TRS86
11/4/2010-9:49am at 9:49 am (UTC -4)
I think you had your first part right. It’s more rare in my opinion to see a high K guy average a lot of innings.
fongy2
11/4/2010-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
Very true….Which makes Nolan Ryan’s feats all that more
unbelievable. He was for half his long carreer not just
high K BUT high BB as well.
TRS86
11/4/2010-10:15am at 10:15 am (UTC -4)
Just basic introductory look. Out of the top 10 innings guys in the NL the average K/9 was 7.12 and the median was about the same. There were however some exceptions in there. For example the #3 innings guy Tim Hudson only had a 5.5 K/9 and the # 9 guy Arroyo only had a 5.0 K/9. 5.0 does seem to be the magic number however because only one out of the 20 guys who pitched 200 innings or more had less than a 5.0 K/9. That guy was good ole Livan at 4.8.
TRS86
11/4/2010-10:18am at 10:18 am (UTC -4)
Only Lincecum, Hamels and Kershaw pitched more than 200 innings with over a 9.0 K/9.
Ceetar
11/4/2010-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
I think that’s a different thing though. length of pitching outing doesn’t change how effective you were during it.
The premise is generally that once the ball leaves the pitchers hand, he has no control of what happens (a simplification perhaps) so if a pitcher often generates swings and misses, the batter didn’t do anything with it. But if he makes contact he could “find a hole” fielder could make an error, or be a solid hit or home run. There is some luck involved here, based on where on the field the ball ends up, so these stats often try to see how a pitcher does on the stuff he can control, and not so much on the grounders that should’ve been outs but get charged as hits.
metsfan2011
11/4/2010-10:28am at 10:28 am (UTC -4)
I think you hit on the right answer– that getting outs efficiently is the key. If a high strike out guy has good enough stuff to get batters out with pitches in the strike zone, his pitch count is going to stay fairly low. There’s also some evidence that pitching with runners on base (more likely with a pitcher who doesn’t strike hitters out) is more taxing for the pitcher.
Ceetar
11/4/2010-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
Formulas/reasoning help for me. It’s hard to ‘believe’ what people tell you a stat is telling you without really understanding it. It’s my biggest hangup with the stats. The reasoning behind ballpark factors and ‘replacement players’ and zone definitions seem a little suspect to me sometimes.
Mr North Jersey
11/4/2010-10:25am at 10:25 am (UTC -4)
Hey Ceet not to take you off topic but did you decide on a desktop yet?
Ceetar
11/4/2010-10:56am at 10:56 am (UTC -4)
no. I’m being very indecisive (and waivering if I can find a ‘suitable’ computer for closer to 700 or if I should just get the obviously better one, more complete, for 1000ish)
Mr North Jersey
11/4/2010-9:48am at 9:48 am (UTC -4)
Welcome Metsfan2011 looking forward to reading you work. I may not understand much of it but I hope you will work on bridging the gap for many like me.
By the way if your Metsfan2011 I expect then you will eventually be Metsfan2012 right? Maybe then I will just start calling you Metsfan20XX.
fongy2
11/4/2010-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
But I heard 2012 was the end of the road for us all?
Mr North Jersey
11/4/2010-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
Shhh no one is supposed to know that except those chosen for the “ARK”.
metsfan4decades
11/4/2010-10:28am at 10:28 am (UTC -4)
Ark? There’s an Ark?
Read an article recently that implied that whole world coming to an end in 2012 was now miscalculated.
Mr North Jersey
11/4/2010-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
Umm, Yeahhhh that’s right miscalculated. Nothing is gonna happen 2012.
metsfan4decades
11/4/2010-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
Well, I guess if we’re all going down, we’re going down together.
Maybe we should be ‘all in’ with the Mets then in 2011? hahaha.
oleosmirf
11/4/2010-10:28am at 10:28 am (UTC -4)
even though i do not really understand sabermetrics at all, i have a hard time putting Reyes anywhere other than the leadoff spot.
Im sure there are plenty of metrics proving otherwise but Reyes’ unique skillset is really wasted anywhere else plus he is too weak mentally to buy into batting anywhere else…
metsfan4decades
11/4/2010-10:34am at 10:34 am (UTC -4)
I don’t know…I’m not really buying that.
I don’t know that I see him as a #3 hitter right now, but you could bat him 2nd. That success would depend though in who was batting leadoff.
I’m not sure where to get all this but I’d like to see his stats batting leadoff (specifically OBP) up through 2008. 2009 he barely played. 2010 he started out on the DL, missed ST, took better than a month to get going when he did come back, then got that oblique injury mid season that I believe hampered him until Sep.
I’m really curious to see if a healthy Reyes in ’11 brings him back to pre -09 form.
If Reye’s OBP is so poor, why the ‘so goes Reyes, so goes the team’ mindset coming from? The stats I saw on how many games the Mets win when Reyes scores (or scores first?) overwhelming favored the Mets.
TRS86
11/4/2010-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
What I have always wondered is how those when Reyes scores stats compare to other teams lead off hitters?
TRS86
11/4/2010-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
Reyes’ best OBP season was 2008 at .358.
TRS86
11/4/2010-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)
Leading off an inning during his career his OBP drops to .334 and is only .339 to lead off a game.
metsfan4decades
11/4/2010-10:45am at 10:45 am (UTC -4)
What exactly is an OBP that would be considered good for a leadoff hitter? What is the cutoff number that would prompt you to rethink batting someone leadoff?
TRS86
11/4/2010-10:50am at 10:50 am (UTC -4)
.317 .359 in 200 PA batting 2nd.
fongy2
11/4/2010-10:35am at 10:35 am (UTC -4)
Agreed.It’s one thing if you have Rickey Henderson BUT since
no one does, you leave Reyes where he is.
TRS86
11/4/2010-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
That’s where his stubbornness applies. It’s kind of like the pitcher that won’t accept his role is the bullpen and thus damages his overall career potential. Example might be Heilman.
Reyes’ speed is nice but as he ages his speed will diminish. He has decent power and extra base potential yet his OBP is never going to be among the highest for lead off hitters. Actually to me his skill set fits the best at either 2nd or 6th.
metsfan4decades
11/4/2010-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
Depending on what the lineup looks like next year, I was thinking batting Reyes 2nd myself. Probably all depends on if Pagan is still here (yes, please) and who is playing 2nd base, what their skill set is with a bat.
Batting Reyes 6th? Could be a good idea. I think there’s some validity to the criticism with Reyes though not batting leadoff (as in that’s where he sees himself). Someone needs to get through to him if he wants to stay there and be successful, he needs to increase that OBP then.
fongy2
11/4/2010-10:45am at 10:45 am (UTC -4)
I don’t disagree BUT again unless you have a guy who is as
good as Reyes in getting himself in scoring position from
the lead-off spot (SB,2B,3B) why bother?
And do you really want five guys to have more PAs than Reyes?
metsfan4decades
11/4/2010-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
Personally, I don’t. But again, I think it’s all going to depend on what the lineup looks like next year?
Will Bay rebound? Will Ike improve? How about Beltran?
So many questions….so little answers right now.
Wouldn’t surprise me to see Reyes batting leadoff to start the year.
TRS86
11/4/2010-10:53am at 10:53 am (UTC -4)
OK to your point Fongy, if the guy is not good at getting on to start with then he has a reduced chance of getting him self in scoring position. SB can be dangerous at any point in a game from any spot in the lineup not just leadoff. For example Carl Crawford has shown to be a much better #2 hitter and has had more stolen base potential and success from that spot in the lineup.
TRS86
11/4/2010-11:01am at 11:01 am (UTC -4)
That being said if he can be the old Reyes with high steals, high steal percentage and get a .350 OBP then I think you can leave him in the #1 spot.
fongy2
11/4/2010-10:41am at 10:41 am (UTC -4)
Quick poll….Since it appears Crawford is gone for The Rays and Maddon has made it clear they want to and expect to con’t to contend
AND since I’ve already seen rumors they may well shop James Sheilds,
Do we offer Angel Pagan to The Rays for Sheilds and what’s left of his
contract???
njstuckintx
11/4/2010-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
I’d do that ASAP.
fongy2
11/4/2010-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
How has there been no fine yet announced on the helmet to helmet hit in the end-zone on HinesWard?….It was bad enough
he (Ward) was called for one of the weakest Offensive Pass Inter ferences ever…But c’mon!
njstuckintx
11/4/2010-10:50am at 10:50 am (UTC -4)
This ain’t the Manning’s Double Stuff league… It’s the Double Standard League!
You think it has to do with the replays and such where we as fans now see all the blown calls by the refs/umps or is it just that the refs/umps are that much worse these days than in the past?
fongy2
11/4/2010-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)
Combo of both. These players are just too big and especially too fast for them (the refs) to really keep up.
Also, I know i’m bias BUT for as much as James Harrison is fined for questionable hits, CAN WE EVER GET A FRIGGIN
HOLDING CALL???!!!…I think it’s safe to say that a half dozen to a dozen times a game Harrison is held by the LT
….And while I understand refs can call holds on almost every snap, what Harrison has to deal with is criminal!!!
stickguy
11/4/2010-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
off the cuff (meaning without looking up #s), probably. I for sure am willing to trade Pagan if they can get a solid return (as in pitching). Just not sure that Shields qualifies! Might just as well sign Bannister and have him and Pagan.
njstuckintx
11/4/2010-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, my answer above comes with your off the cuff stipulation. But, as the Giants proved, pitching beats hitting. To me, Pagan is replaceable a lot easier than if a Shields or a Garza. I’d rather they go all in and push to get Garza, but Mr. Shields has been quality in the past, isn’t ancient in age and the Met’s need 2 pitchers IMO.
TRS86
11/4/2010-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)
Much of that would depend on the health of Beltran and the progress of our other OF. Shields is also a guy whose h/9 has been increasing every year to an incredibly ugly 10.9 this season. 246 hits in 203 innings. The good thing is that he does not walk many hitters and his K/9 did increase this year.
Here’s his contract:
08:$1M, 09:$1.5M, 10:$2.5M, 11:$4.25M, 12:$7M club option ($2M buyout), 13:$9M club option ($1.5M buyout), 14:$12M club option ($1M buyout)
So he is signed reasonably for a mid-rotation pitcher IF he can again become a mid-rotation pitcher, which he was not last season.
fongy2
11/4/2010-11:03am at 11:03 am (UTC -4)
Yeah but he’s still young, finished strong this season and
has been a topoftherotation guy for a world series team.
TRS86
11/4/2010-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
He has not been a top of the rotation guy since 2008. He was flat out bad last season. OK let me rephrase, he was at best a common #5 last year.
fongy2
11/4/2010-11:13am at 11:13 am (UTC -4)
My bad on the “he finished strong” statement. I was reading
his game log backwards.
Nevertheless, he’s 28y/o has been a top flight pitcher
and we certainly could use one.
I’ve not heard nor seen his problems were physical, so…….
TRS86
11/4/2010-11:19am at 11:19 am (UTC -4)
Something has to be behind giving up 243 hits in 203 innings and a H/9 of almost 11. Also since that 2008 year where he really maxed out his innings he has struggled. Last year his WAR was -1.3. For reference Aaron Harang was at a -1.2.
fongy2
11/4/2010-11:30am at 11:30 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, but it could be a hundred things that caused
his downfall. I don’t think injury is one of the, so it
could be as simple as pitch selection, arm angle,
personal life issues… I just think age and track history
make him pretty attractive if you could get him cheaply…
Also, his middle name is Anthony….So that’s a positive!
TRS86
11/4/2010-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
LOL on the middle name.
I just don’t know. We need pitching but I am not sure he solves that problem. Not sure with Beltran injured and gone after 2011 and with no CF close to ready that the Mets are better off trading Pagan for a #5 or 4 at best pitcher.
njstuckintx
11/4/2010-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
Mets could have used one of those…
Anywho, considering change of ballpark, the infamous AL to NL switch as well as having a track record and history of being decent, I’d take Shields with an idea of him being a 3 or a 4 and be happy with that trade, based on salary, options and need for SP.
fongy2
11/4/2010-11:19am at 11:19 am (UTC -4)
In the end what exactly is Pagan? And what will he be?
Don’t get me wrong, I like the guy alot BUT aren’t we trying
to retool and attempt to strengthen our MiLB system while
waiting and hoping on Johan to return quickly and to old
Johan form?
TRS86
11/4/2010-11:23am at 11:23 am (UTC -4)
In the end what exactly is Shields. And what will he be? Don’t get me wrong, I like the guy a lot but aren’t we trying to retool and attempt to strengthen our MILB system while waiting and holding on Beltran to return to his old form and for Fmart/Kirk to develop into a usable CF?
fongy2
11/4/2010-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
But I think finding a replacement for Pagan at the
top of his game is alot easier than finding a replacement for a Shields-type when they’re at
the top of their game.
TRS86
11/4/2010-11:32am at 11:32 am (UTC -4)
Pending on what the top of their games are. The last 2 years Pagan has been one of the top 5 CF in the NL, especially when you combine offense and defense. That’s not easy to find.
Look at it this way. Pagan last season was “worth” 19.6M. Shields was “worth” 8.7M and his best season topped out at 18.5M.
TRS86
11/4/2010-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
Pagan’s WAR 4.9.
Shields’ WAR 2.2
Shields’ best year 4.5.
TRS86
11/4/2010-11:22am at 11:22 am (UTC -4)
Thing is how much better is he than a De La Rosa that can be had as a FA? How much more will De La Rosa cost?
Also, I can’t say that the Mets need many more #5 pitchers.
Dirtysanchez
11/4/2010-10:42am at 10:42 am (UTC -4)
Welcome aboard bud
stickguy
11/4/2010-10:45am at 10:45 am (UTC -4)
I said last year when the whole reyes out of leadoff discussion was going on that IMO he is much better suited to the 2 hole. Assuming they have a more ‘classic” lead off guy to fit in of course.
His power whould be more useful in that spot.
And there should be a different mindset to 2 vs. 3. The 2 guy is kind of a 2nd leadoff hitter, and he can do everything in that spot that he would do leading off. Plus have more guys on base to drive in.
I don’t know about the 6 hole, but that seems like it would take a lot more mental adjustment!
VIctorino is the guy that TRS seems to be profiling him to. Speed and stealability, but also some power and not a fantastic OBP. And he alternated mostly between leadoff and 6th. Rollins was another example (more extreme, with a sub-.300 OBP)
fongy2
11/4/2010-10:51am at 10:51 am (UTC -4)
Again, how many teams have a classic lead-off guy?
Also, has there ever been a Met who Mgmt has for no reason
messed with more during their career than Reyes???
metsfan4decades
11/4/2010-10:53am at 10:53 am (UTC -4)
Heath Bell and his shuttle?
fongy2
11/4/2010-10:56am at 10:56 am (UTC -4)
Ya lost me.
njstuckintx
11/4/2010-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)
the number of times heath bell was called up to the bigs and then subsequently sent down.
fongy2
11/4/2010-11:01am at 11:01 am (UTC -4)
O…O.K.,,,,I meant more cahnging Reyes’ running style(WTF?)…moving him from SSto2B for a scrub….
never getting a real mentor type to play 2B….
misdiagnosing his injuries…moving him out of the
lead-off spot….
metsfan4decades
11/4/2010-11:17am at 11:17 am (UTC -4)
Couldn’t agree with you more on this.
Reyes gets a bad rap from some Met fans, IMO. Yeah, he wears his emotions on his sleeve most times but that’s Reyes.
I’ve never heard him call another teammate out, never heard him opening criticize is own team, moved to 3rd hitter last year when asked (even though all knew it wasn’t his preference), played 2nd when asked.
So what if he does silly little handshake dances or points his finger in the air running around the bases? I’ve seen half a dozen or better do that. Jeeze, is it any different than Joba’s fist pump every time he throws a strike?
Those aren’t meant to show up the other team. Reyes likes to win. Even more so, he hates to lose. Stoic is never going to be part of Reyes’ personality.
fongy2
11/4/2010-11:23am at 11:23 am (UTC -4)
Amen!…This is one of the top five position player ever developed by The Mets and when right,
which has been much more often than not, he’s
one of the top five players at his position….
I don’t get all the hand wringing over Jose and never
have. We have plenty of problems and holes to fill
SS/ lead-off isn’t one of them.
TRS86
11/4/2010-11:28am at 11:28 am (UTC -4)
I can agree with that, however, I am always concerned over his lack of production in September. To me that is pivotal in his development. They have even tried to have him steal less in order to “save” him for September and nothing has worked. Also, you still have to either work out a reasonable extension, to me nothing more than 4/40-48M or be prepared to trade him. I know it’s friggin Jose Reyes and he’s one of the best players we have ever developed but that’s the life of baseball.
TRS86
11/4/2010-11:02am at 11:02 am (UTC -4)
Pagan? LOL.
TRS86
11/4/2010-11:12am at 11:12 am (UTC -4)
I wonder if the rebuilding M’s would consider moving Ichiro? He’s still got 34M left on his contract through 2012. Would they be willing to take Beltran for Ichiro? What’s my reasoning? I think he could do well in Citi and might be the type of mentor we could bring in.
Ichiro, Reyes, Wright, Davis, Bay, Pagan, Thole and 2B could work out well. It certainly would be solid defensively.
fongy2
11/4/2010-11:17am at 11:17 am (UTC -4)
I’m abig Ichiro fan (one of my fish is named after him) BUT the
guy’s got a terrible rep as a primadonna and doesn’t want to play
anywhere BUT Seattle. The last thing this team needs is a 24+1
guy going foward.
metsfan4decades
11/4/2010-11:21am at 11:21 am (UTC -4)
Jeeze, what’s with all the primadonna’s lately?
If you gave me a couple of million a year to play baseball, I’d be ecstatic. Heck, I’d play and offer to cleanup after the post game buffet.
fongy2
11/4/2010-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
Well I’ve read in many places and heard many ‘casters say
time and again that the guys “A Diva”.
TRS86
11/4/2010-11:29am at 11:29 am (UTC -4)
So we would be trading Beltran for Beltran? I kid, I kid. Even so, the same irresponsible reporting that goes on about Beltran could be happening to Ichiro.
fongy2
11/4/2010-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
True!…Hey, I would do the deal in a second BUT my thought
on Beltran is the window has closed, we’ve seen the best of him we’d ever get, theres no way that he should get any extention AND if some team like the Whitesox wanted him
and he’d agree to go, I’d get rid of him even if it meant taking
a lesser player to chop the money off the payroll.
TRS86
11/4/2010-11:37am at 11:37 am (UTC -4)
I am still big on the Beltran for Dice-K. Dice could not be the only pitcher we got but to me it would fit and the money works. Sox need the offense and maybe a DH guy to replace Ortiz if they let him go. Mets need a pitcher and some 2011 salary relief in Beltran. (Dice K has 20M and 2 years left)
fongy2
11/4/2010-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
I’d do that!
TRS86
11/4/2010-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
I would as well and I honestly think it will be considered. It seems as though Dice K has kind of worn out his welcome in Boston anyway.
metsfan2011
11/4/2010-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
I agree that Beltran will probably not be the player we once knew, but I think in September he showed that he can still hit and frankly we don’t have that many guys with a proven track record. I would not pay to get Beltran off the team. I also find it doubtful that anyone will give us anything of value for him. So, like it or not, he’s going to be a Met in 2011.
fongy2
11/4/2010-11:43am at 11:43 am (UTC -4)
No, thats what I said…..If Icould move him a for young talent I would. Provided we weren’t picking up any of the cost. If we are, we’ve got to be getting back blue-chip/can’t
miss prospect(s).
njstuckintx
11/4/2010-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
Pagan for Shields and Beltran for Ellsbury? Let’s make a deal!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Sorry, couldn’t resist. I’m looking forward to the crazy fantasy type moves and projected lineups. Always good for discussion.
fongy2
11/4/2010-11:58am at 11:58 am (UTC -4)
I’m all in for those two moves!
metsfan4decades
11/4/2010-11:32am at 11:32 am (UTC -4)
Speaking Shields, AA seems to think Garza is the more probably pitcher the Rays will shop, rather than Shields.
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2010/11/3/1792922/matt-garza-potential-trade-target
TRS86
11/4/2010-11:35am at 11:35 am (UTC -4)
I have seen that because they think they would be trading high on Garza and low on Shields after his terrible year. Also the fact that Garza is going to command more money and also would return more in trade. Makes sense IF they can get a game changing bat.
Let me ask you guys this.
Would you do Ike and Pagan for Garza?
fongy2
11/4/2010-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
No!…. Wright,Reyes, Ike, Thole & Pelf are (Almost untouchable)
TRS86
11/4/2010-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
Hmmm, so not even for Garza? Guys still under team control through 2013.
fongy2
11/4/2010-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
Well….I wouldn’t hang up the phone…But….
TRS86
11/4/2010-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
Oh I know. That one is a tough one. My thoughts were based on what you said above. A 1B with good defense and average offense is much easier to find than an upper rotation pitcher.
Also, I was thinking of what it might take to get Garza. Not sure that’s even enough BUT it would provide them replacements for Crawford and Pena.
njstuckintx
11/4/2010-11:54am at 11:54 am (UTC -4)
Hopefully Alderson can unload the kids that don’t fit his system, so maybe a Pagan, Gee + someone… for Garza. Or something similar. I do think Alderson is going to value the home grown guys, especially those who are already entrenched in positions (AKA, Ike, Niese, Thole). Maybe he determines Mejia is expendable. Or Fmart or even Havens or Tejada. Who knows.
fongy2
11/4/2010-11:57am at 11:57 am (UTC -4)
I think they look at Desmond Jennings as their best prospect. So I think it’s likely they just go with him to replace Crawford. I can also see them not freakin;out
over lossing Pena. He’s supposed to be a team leader
and class act BUT ya can’t have a .200 hitter who K’s
150+ times a yr, even if he is a good fielder and hits
30to40 HRs.
TRS86
11/4/2010-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
True but as we know they need offense, especially with Crawford and Pena gone. 30 to 40 HR in that lineup missing is not a good thing.
I could see them bringing in a LaRoche type for 1B.
metsfan2011
11/4/2010-1:25pm at 1:25 pm (UTC -4)
when you have not made the playoffs for the last 4 seasons, no one is untouchable
Mr North Jersey
11/4/2010-1:27pm at 1:27 pm (UTC -4)
well said
Prismo
11/4/2010-12:09pm at 12:09 pm (UTC -4)
Welcome to the team MF’11!
If I may, I expect to see geeky metrics analysis in the majority of your posts. Don’t let me down.
GravediggerHebner
11/4/2010-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
Welcome to the blog.
Good luck dealing with our anger during our learning curve.
oleosmirf
11/4/2010-2:00pm at 2:00 pm (UTC -4)
i’m sorry but you cannot trade Pagan for Shields. Garza is a different story but still CF is an important position and considering Beltran and Reyes’ injury problems there is a big need for Pagan.
i would though be interested in Shields if they wanted something like Familia/Carson and Tejada/Duda
TRS86
11/4/2010-2:05pm at 2:05 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah to me for Shields he is intriguing but we have to trade from depth not need and to me we NEED Pagan for at least the next 2 years. Now Fmart and Holt, lol fire away.