It’s a scary thought to think Jose Reyes could be traded away to Boston but Tony Lee of NESN.com seems to feel it’s never too early to look at in season acquisitions that can be made come July. He looks at 5 possible names. They are,
- Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
- Jose Lopez, 3B
- Jose Bautista, RF
- Bronson Arroyo, SP
- Jose Reyes, SS
Here is what Lee said regarding Reyes.
…Jose coming off a slightly down year and playing a position with a degree of uncertainty for the Red Sox, Reyes is in the final year of a five-year contract with the New York Mets. If Boston doesn’t get enough out of the Jed Lowrie-Marco Scutaro combination at shortstop and has a sudden need for production at the position, Reyes could be a dynamic addition.
This wouldn’t necessarily represent a roadblock for shortstop-in-waiting Jose Iglesias. If Reyes moves on after a half-season in Boston, so be it. That’s just another draft pick in Epstein’s pocket.
Can you imagine a scenario where both Beltran and Reyes are playing for the Red Sox in the 2011 playoffs? Frenchy Part Deux? Nahhhhh, what are the odds?
78 comments
stickguy
11/10/2010-10:41am at 10:41 am (UTC -4)
as always, depends on what they get back. I don’t really see it, for a couple of reasons. 1 is that I expect the Mets to be in the plyoff hunt, so not sellers at the deadline. Plus, it would have to be a return significantly better than 2 high draft picks (that is, not Chris Carter).
And, if they still hope to resign him at the end of the season, it makes sense to hang onto him. Not that they couldn’t still get him back, but it just does not sound plausible.
Beltran though should be traded if they have a chance, assuming he will not be the difference in making the playoffs, since at the end of the year he needs to be waved bye to, and there will be no return (picks) for him.
Ceetar
11/10/2010-10:45am at 10:45 am (UTC -4)
Only way Beltran and Reyes are playing in Fenway in October is on the Mets in a ’86 rematch.
Mr North Jersey
11/10/2010-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
Nice!!!
oleosmirf
11/10/2010-10:54am at 10:54 am (UTC -4)
it all depends on how Reyes plays this season. If Jose doesn’t return to the way he played before his injury in 2009 this season then I think you need to seriously explore trading him.
kistics
11/10/2010-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)
If the Mets get Lester in return. I might think about it.
TRS86
11/10/2010-11:12am at 11:12 am (UTC -4)
That’s just it. Boston’s front office is not stupid. Why on earth would they trade a guy like Lester for one year of Reyes coming off a down year? It’s just not going to happen.
kistics
11/10/2010-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
It was more of tongue in cheek speak.
I know they would never trade Lester for Reyes. What I meant to say is that if the Mets get someone very intriguing in return, it could be a possibility.
Having said that, I would rather see the Mets keep Reyes.
njstuckintx
11/10/2010-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
But now our Front Office is not stupid either! (we hope…)
metsfan4decades
11/10/2010-10:58am at 10:58 am (UTC -4)
All supposition based on how Reyes fares first half of the season, where the Mets are in the standings, where the Sox are in the standings, blah, blah, blah.
I can’t look that far ahead – yet. Guess that’s why I wouldn’t make a good GM. Yeah, something to think about – maybe – come July but too many variables involved in this one.
Odds are if either of those two are traded mid season, it’s Beltran more so than Reyes.
TRS86
11/10/2010-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
To me I listen on Reyes BUT the problem is I can’t see the return being great enough to warrant the drop in production.
For it to happen in the off-season the Mets would have to be comfortable with either signing a guy like Edgar to play SS with Tejada and they would have to net at least an upper rotation pitcher. I don’t see that happening.
For it to happen during the season, as Stick points out it would have to be that the Mets are out of it, have no shot of re-signing him, that internal options have presented themselves, AND the return is greater than 2 top draft-picks.
Thus as much as I would love to draw up the creative trade scenarios they are incredibly unlikely.
oleosmirf
11/10/2010-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
that is true, if Reyes doesn’t play well enough to warrant an extension then i highly doubt the players he could net us in return would be worth more than two 1st round picks.
TRS86
11/10/2010-11:25am at 11:25 am (UTC -4)
Yeah it really just depends. When you trade a guy like Reyes the over all impact has to be considered as well. It would have to be significantly greater than the two picks in my opinion. If you take the two picks it will have been clear that you exhausted every attempt to keep Reyes and he declined. If you trade him for non-impact players then you just gave up on one of the best position players you ever produced. Tough call.
oleosmirf
11/10/2010-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
if the Mets are to trade anyone this offseason, it should be Pagan. I know many Mets fans were complaining when Francessa mentioned it but i dont think his trade value will ever be higher than it is now and even though it creates a hole in the OF i dont think we have a good chance at the playoffs with him.
TRS86
11/10/2010-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
I am not ready to write off next year so the only way I trade Pagan is if the following occurs.
Beltran refuses to move to RF.
You can net a mid-rotation pitcher.
The Mets feel they have in-house solutions for RF.
Otherwise I keep him and see what a Reyes/Pagan combo can do with hopefully healthy protection behind them.
kistics
11/10/2010-11:33am at 11:33 am (UTC -4)
You mean ALL 3 has to happen to trade Pagan? Because Beltran ain’t moving to RF.
TRS86
11/10/2010-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
I think so yes. Unless again you can get something like I proposed below. I am not ready to hand over RF to Duda or Fmart.
kistics
11/10/2010-11:52am at 11:52 am (UTC -4)
Agreed on Duda or FMart.
One thing I liked about Pagan was his arm at RF. He’s no Frenchy, but he does has pretty good arm.
TRS86
11/10/2010-11:35am at 11:35 am (UTC -4)
Here’s a question for you. What would it take to net Kyle Davies and David DeJesus from KC? They both are becoming more expensive than the Royals want to pay and at best DeJesus is in his last year with the Royals. Davies could be non-tendered but I think a move to the NL could help him. He’s not going to solve our front of the rotation issues but he solidifies the back for very little money.
Perhaps the Royals would be intrigued by Pagan as a cheaper solution in the OF.
kistics
11/10/2010-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
But isn’t Pagan going into like his 3rd arb season? So the Royals would only have Pagan under control for 2 seasons. Plus Pagan will probably get paid handsomely this season and it would only be a minor savings for the Royals.
oleosmirf
11/10/2010-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
im not writing it off either but I believe making moves (or failing to make moves) because of its impact on the 2011 season is a mistake.
metsfan4decades
11/10/2010-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
The problem I had with that Francessa rant yesterday was his reasoning from trading Pagan. ‘Pagan does not want to play RF and he’ll be terrible there if you force him to so he has to go’.
Really?
I know Pagan would prefer CF but if he’s designated the everyday RF to start the season, does anyone think he’ll really have a problem with that? Especially since he was quoted as saying Beltran was kind of his idol, he helped Pagan over the past couple of seasons and he can only hope to put up the numbers Beltran has?
Ceetar
11/10/2010-11:28am at 11:28 am (UTC -4)
Francesa’s just an idiot, and was makign up stories based on something stupid our previous manager said.
metsfan4decades
11/10/2010-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
+1
kistics
11/10/2010-11:31am at 11:31 am (UTC -4)
Exactly. All season long, I did not hear a bleep about Pagan unhappy at RF. Maybe he was unhappy that he had to split time with Frenchy for awhile, but that problem no longer exists. So I don’t understand where this is coming from.
Ceetar
11/10/2010-11:35am at 11:35 am (UTC -4)
I think any unhappiness stemmed from a certain manager finding any excuse to play guys like Gary Matthews Jr or Jeff Francoeur over him.
kistics
11/10/2010-11:53am at 11:53 am (UTC -4)
Right. And also I just don’t see Pagan complaining about the fact that his mentor (Beltran) playing at CF
kingman 26
11/10/2010-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
‘Pagan does not want to play RF and he’ll be terrible there if you force him to so he has to go’.
I think Pagan is not that great, but this is absolutely too much, even for Francesspool.
Pagan has hustled every time I have seen him in a Met uniform, and all signs point to this continuing as long as he is a starter.
He worships Beltran. This is so silly.
Ceetar
11/10/2010-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
He’s a good player. Trading him would likely create a net-deficit on the major league team. You certainly can entertain offers, but I’m not really sure it’d make sense.
Mr North Jersey
11/10/2010-11:35am at 11:35 am (UTC -4)
Pagan and Beltran will be an interesting storyline going forward indeed.
stickguy
11/10/2010-11:30am at 11:30 am (UTC -4)
certainly need to find out what you can get for him. If you can sell high, the return would make it worthwhile. It does mean you are counting on Bletran to be able to play the bulk of the season, but if he can’t, the team is in trouble anyway and pagan won’t be making the difference.
He is also much more valuabale as a CF. He did not put up good #s for a RF (unless, of course, you are comapring him to Frenchy!)
metsfan4decades
11/10/2010-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
Your last statement….this is the thinking I don’t understand at times.
What difference does it make what position your big bats play?
Say you’ve got a second baseman that has a high OPS and hits like 35 HRs a year? Does it make a difference then if your RF is a little less and is a gap hitter instead?
Isn’t it the amount of offense in the lineup that counts and not necessarily what position those bats play?
TRS86
11/10/2010-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
Agreed, which is why having offense in SS and CF has been such a luxury for us.
stickguy
11/10/2010-11:58am at 11:58 am (UTC -4)
but if they didn’t give the advantage away being below average at positions where other teams are normally strong, they would have won a lot more games!
having a SS hit like a RF is great, except when your RF is hitting like a BU 2b.
stickguy
11/10/2010-11:57am at 11:57 am (UTC -4)
Of course it is good to have hitting from non-hitting positions. But t is not good to give it back by being below average elsewhere.
so say you have piazza and utley in their primes at traditionally non-hitting spots. Shouldn’t you want to have a good hitter in RF, where you normally do? If you go below average there, it offsets the advantage one of the other guys gives you.
kistics
11/10/2010-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
I don’t see as selling high for Pagan. And this is because up until this season, he was never given a chance / stayed healthy to play the full season. And when he did get a chance, he lived up to expectations. He’s relatively cheap and young. So I would not give him up that easy.
Also I think he can be the in-house solution for CF when Beltran leaves. Look at who’s available for CF in 2012. Not really anyone interesting (unless Sizemore gets healthy, but then Indians would pick up his option). We don’t know much about Capt Kirk yet to name him the next CF. So, I think Pagan is the best solution at CF for the 2012 season.
Ceetar
11/10/2010-11:37am at 11:37 am (UTC -4)
Steve Popper thinks they’re going to bring in a veteran caddy to start at catcher for Thole. Doesn’t seem logical to me.
TRS86
11/10/2010-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
I don’t see that either.
fongy2
11/10/2010-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
why not?
TRS86
11/10/2010-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
Bring in a veteran to start at catcher while Thole rides the pine? What’s the point?
fongy2
11/10/2010-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
I think the caddy is the one who holds the clubs.
TRS86
11/10/2010-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
“veteran caddy to start at catcher” That’s a confusing statement all by itself.
oleosmirf
11/10/2010-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
well the Mets are going to need a backup catcher than can get you 100-150 AB and im not sure Blanco can do that anymore.
looking at the FA list, guys like Varitek, Treanor, Laird, Bard are the other options
TRS86
11/10/2010-12:31pm at 12:31 pm (UTC -4)
I agree but the way I read it was to START at catcher.
kingman 26
11/10/2010-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
If Reyes does not clearly show signs of a return to 2006–2008 form by June, the team should definitely see what return they can get for him.
I followed Jose from the low minors and would like to see him dancing during a postseason win as much as anyone, but the 2010 Reyes was not even a shell of the 2006–2008 Reyes, and is not worth the kind of money he will command.
His OBP is mediocre at best, and we can be thankful that the new regime will almost certainly stress OBP rather than going to the plate with zero plan whatsoever, which Jose most definitely did all of last year.
metsfan4decades
11/10/2010-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
I’ll agree the 2010 Reyes was not the pre ’09 Reyes. I just think that has more to do with sitting out most of ’09, missing ST in ’10, taking 6 weeks to get up to speed, then injuring his oblique and being asked to ‘play through it’.
If healthy, I’m hoping Reyes returns to pre ’09 form.
Trading Reyes though mid season if he’s having a down year at that point will likely mean we get less of a return for him as well. Double edge sword. Have to ask at that point are we better off with him or without him?
kingman 26
11/10/2010-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
Agreed totally; but still, if he does not clearly return to 2006–2008 form, I personally think that investing what he will command will hurt the team.
Use the money elsewhere. We have plenty of holes to fill, and we have no idea yet how good Bay or Santana are going to be.
I think we are better off without him unless he is putting up 2006–2008 numbers—and staying healthy—by July 1.
fongy2
11/10/2010-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
Sorry Brock, I couldn’t disagree more.
njstuckintx
11/10/2010-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
I’m with Fong. This team is good team with Reyes playing. As for trading Reyes, it all depends on the return. Is a Reyes & scrubby pitcher better than, say, Lester and an average replacement? I’d have think about it, but Reyes being a hometown/homegrown Met always weights more than a non Met player, which is probably not the smartest way of looking at it….
kingman 26
11/10/2010-12:25pm at 12:25 pm (UTC -4)
I am viewing it more in terms of the deal he will demand and get—5/75??
Sure, he will still be young, but will we AGAIN be paying a huge amount for an injury-prone player whose best years are behind him?
Hey, I would love to see Jose on July 1st hitting .300 with 35 steals, 10 triples, 60 runs scored, playing flashy defense; but if he is doing what he did in 2010, I would say that the money could be put to better use elsewhere.
Remember, even with the contracts coming off the books, we have Johan and Bay sucking up nearly 40 mil a year or whatever, and what is Wright’s next deal going to be?
This team has lots of holes.
TRS86
11/10/2010-12:33pm at 12:33 pm (UTC -4)
I also can’t see a contract near that unless he proves that he is healthy and ready to match or exceed his career numbers.
I would expect something closer to 4/48 myself.
njstuckintx
11/10/2010-12:37pm at 12:37 pm (UTC -4)
I agree, there are a lot of holes. Beltran coming off and then 1 bad year of K-rod, salary wise. If Alderson can correct that (which I feel he can) in a manner that doesn’t hurt too much, that would be best. I’m trying to think of a good analogy for this. Hmmm… Maybe a little pain in the next 1-2 as Beltran’s, Ollie’s and Castillo’s & then K-rods contracts come off, you would think that the money would be there to keep Reyes. If having to have Reyes’ salary be paid for one of those years as we wait for K-Rod’s to come off the books would be worth the hurt vs. letting him walk and trying to find a replacement afterwards. Does that make sense? Hopefully they don’t try to fix all the holes right away and not think towards long term solutions.
TRS86
11/10/2010-11:53am at 11:53 am (UTC -4)
You know I was on the Reyes’ OBP is too low kick too, however when I went back and compared it to other lead-off hitters he is right in line. Obviously last year was a big set back and who knows why that is. However from 2006-2009 his 4 year average was above .350. Last year the league average for lead-off hitters was
.261 .328 .398 .726
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/split/109/qualified/true
Take a look at this link as well.
As bad as Reyes was last year he was 2nd in BA, 9th in OBP (.350 would have placed him 3rd), 2nd in SLG, 2nd in OPS. So what the Mets have to determine is why did Reyes take such a large drop off for 2010. Was it due to time missed and nagging injuries that will be behind him or is it the beginning of a trend.
kingman 26
11/10/2010-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
I know–I looked this up a while ago too and was very surprised—you are right.
The guys who have .400 OBPs are hitting 3rd or 4th, not leadoff.
But he regressed in every measurable and intangible way last year, and unlike Wright, he really DOES disappear down the stretch as 2007 and 2008 show quite vividly.
stickguy
11/10/2010-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
that is because your best hitters hit 3rd and 4th.
kingman 26
11/10/2010-12:13pm at 12:13 pm (UTC -4)
Uh, yeah.
But sometimes the guys with the best OBPs hit leadoff like Rickey Henderson, or sometimes guys with excellent OBPs who are great hitters like Ichiro or Raines hit leadoff or sometimes guys with fine OBPs like Dunn or Slappy are nowhere near your best hitters.
But thanks; I did know that your best hitter hits 3rd generally.
fongy2
11/10/2010-12:19pm at 12:19 pm (UTC -4)
Henderson/HOF,Ichiro/future HOF, Raines/borderline HOF
We’re not asking too-much of Jose…..Are we?
TRS86
11/10/2010-12:35pm at 12:35 pm (UTC -4)
As I said what the Mets have to determine if last year was a fluke or if 2006-2009 was a fluke. I tend to think last year was just an off year.
Ceetar
11/10/2010-12:00pm at 12:00 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t think it’s a trend. He started out as an aggressive hitter with low walks, and I think that the growth he showed was due to hard work, repetition, and discipline. I think a lot of that faded due to the long lay off, and the lack of real practice at it. (I think Castillo’s OBP suffered for similiar reasons, he just didn’t make up for it by lashing triples into the corner)
I mean, identifying that a pitch is within an imaginary box in front of you and not slightly outside of it has to be a hard to refine skill, and certainly something that comes with extreme repetition. Not doing it certainly can’t help. Beltran felt it was so important taht while he was rehabbing he said he was sitting in the cage literally just tracking pitches.
kistics
11/10/2010-12:19pm at 12:19 pm (UTC -4)
Not only that, Reyes probably lost some discipline because no one held him accountable for lack of walks. We all know Reyes needs some guidance/kick in the butt once in awhile.
Also I wonder if batting him 3rd has affected his approach at the plate early in the season.
TRS86
11/10/2010-12:37pm at 12:37 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t think so. Reyes was ask about why he was taking significantly less walks and he had no answer for it. More that he believed he was getting pitches he could hit and the results were not there.
Perhaps it had to do with nothing behind him or even him wanting to prove something so badly that it over did it.
oleosmirf
11/10/2010-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
i was actually quite surprised by those numbers. I think it was a combination of injury and the drama surrounding the team.
this whole culture change and the GM creating lower expectations for the 2011 season I think is going to help…
kistics
11/10/2010-12:20pm at 12:20 pm (UTC -4)
In NL or MLB?
TRS86
11/10/2010-12:38pm at 12:38 pm (UTC -4)
MLB/
fongy2
11/10/2010-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
I wonder if this meatball Lee has any idea that these types of stories
make members of “Redsox Nation” sound just like the morons of
“Yankee Nation”. —-O.K., if we have a problem, we’ll just go out
and get someone elses best player—- Jose Reyes is going nowhere!
No matter where we stand come July. Expect for Johan, there is no
other player on this team who can’t be replaced.
As for the “slighty down season” comment, true BUT given the fact
that he missed almost the entire ’09 season, had no spring training
and came back to a line-up in constant transition, how much more
could really have been expected from him?
Everyone should again take a look at our record with him and w/o him.
metsfan4decades
11/10/2010-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
I have seen the stats on when Reyes scores in a game and it’s something like we won 243 of those games as opposed 126 when he didn’t score. (can’t put my finger on the exact number right now).
I am not a fan of entertaining a trade for Reyes this off season and I probably won’t be mid next season either.
fongy2
11/10/2010-12:03pm at 12:03 pm (UTC -4)
I believe last I saw (Aug/Sept’10) the numbers are even greater
than that.
kingman 26
11/10/2010-11:53am at 11:53 am (UTC -4)
Well, have agreed with every last word of yours for quite some time, but not this.
Jose was pretty bad last year—no plate discipline, totally regressed in the field, was awful running the bases sometimes, and his attitude and focus were admittedly bad.
If he does not get back to the old Jose by mid-season, should we sign him to a 5/75 or whatever deal?
I am afraid not.
And look at his numbers in Aug and Sept of 2007 AND 2008—terrible; Wright tore it up.
I hate to be one of “those” people, but Jose is soft and immature. 2011 will be his chance to show I am wrong about this. I sincerely hope he does.
fongy2
11/10/2010-12:02pm at 12:02 pm (UTC -4)
Just turned 27 years old, has been screwed with by the org
almost since he got here and if let get away who are we replacing
him with? And yeah while we’d all like him to have his OBP #s
look like Rickey Henderson’s, how many do???…
Just one man’s opinion BUT I don’t know of a single player who
has made a greater difference to our line-up, every game, every
AB than Reyes. He gets on and theres a real good chance he scores. He scores, we usually win.
kingman 26
11/10/2010-12:19pm at 12:19 pm (UTC -4)
I agree with the first half of the above eight lines, but during those 2006–2008 years, Wright, Delgado, and Beltran were awesome, and we had lots of other productive players.
We weren’t good because of Jose—and Jose is as far from a clutch player/leader as one gets.
Again, check the 2007–2008 Aug/Sept stats, and remember how many other fine offensive players we had those years.
GravediggerHebner
11/10/2010-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
I think the scenario in which this writer suggests the Red Sox will acquire and utilize Reyes, essentially as a half-season player converted into draft picks, is a reason why this new Mets FO would just keep him – turn him into draft picks after 2011.
njstuckintx
11/10/2010-12:02pm at 12:02 pm (UTC -4)
What, you think that Carter wasn’t more worth-wild than the picks from Wagner????
fongy2
11/10/2010-12:06pm at 12:06 pm (UTC -4)
Thank you!
GravediggerHebner
11/10/2010-12:15pm at 12:15 pm (UTC -4)
If the Yankees hadn’t blocked Carter and the Mets had been able to actually have and use him everyday Sept ’09 I would hate the deal a little less. The fact they got nothing in ’09 AND lost the picks is too much for me. Once Yanks blocked Mets should’ve just backed out of the deal and kept Wagner. $3 million or whatever is no excuse.
I think especially knowing that Beltran’s contract prohibits arbitration offer (and thus draft picks) that having Reyes on hand as a possible expiring Type A contract is a good thing for the Mets. Trading him for anything less than the value of some teams 1st round pick and a compensation pick I just can’t see this new front office doing.
metsfan4decades
11/10/2010-12:18pm at 12:18 pm (UTC -4)
Agree, on both points.
kistics
11/10/2010-12:32pm at 12:32 pm (UTC -4)
Oh btw, according to MLBTR and theis reverse engineered Elias Ranking, Reyes is a Type B.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/10/2009-10-elias-rankings.html
Obviously Reyes missed most of ’09 due to injury and that’s probably he’s a type B now.
Ceetar
11/10/2010-1:28pm at 1:28 pm (UTC -4)
he’ll be a type A by the end of the season, but it wouldn’t matter cause we’re gonna lock him up.
GravediggerHebner
11/10/2010-1:32pm at 1:32 pm (UTC -4)
Excellent information. The difference between “just” a compensation pick and getting that plus some team’s first rounder (or second if they’re a bad team but I doubt a team such as that signs Reyes) does make a difference in my view of how the Mets should proceed with Reyes, makes a mid-season trade more palatable from this end but also might make the return on that trade not as good. Food for thought.
kistics
11/10/2010-1:53pm at 1:53 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed. Teams trading for Reyes will point to his type B status, but we all know his value is much greater than just a compensation pick.