AUTHOR’S NOTE: This piece was prepared for publication prior to the tragic news about Mr. Alderson’s father. All of us at TRDMB send our sincere condolences to the Alderson family. Every fan understands that baseball activities most certainly take a back seat to family issues at a time like this.
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With apologies to Thomas Paine, the last four years have indeed been times that have tried Met fans’ souls.
The end of the 2006 NLCS was a time many viewed as similar to the end of 1984 or 1985, or even 1999—difficult moments to be sure, but times which clearly signaled better days ahead.
Without rehashing the last four years, we can surely agree that they have not been better times.
It now appears that the days in the baseball wilderness are over; a new sheriff and his impressive deputies are in town.
Sandy Alderson’s record, as this space has discussed, is mixed; but he did create a championship team, his overall resume is extremely impressive, and his moves thus far must be construed by even the most demanding fan as showing a man who, while firmly in charge, is clearly someone who is hugely self-confident and devoted to change.
Hiring two relatively young deputies who have both been GMs in Paul DePodesta and J.P.Ricciardi shows the trait many very successful people have—hire the best you can as assistants and don’t fear their ambition; use their expertise to better the organization you lead.
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Jettisoning Takahashi after reports of his somewhat comical salary demands was a fine move. Yes, at first glance this may seem similar to Omar’s letting Oliver and Bradford go after 2006. But it’s not. This team is not truly ready to contend, and while the 2007 and 2008 teams surely could have used Oliver and Bradford, the 2011 team will not miss the postseason because of one less bullpen arm after KRod.
Letting deadwood like Santos and Hessman go also must be applauded. A team in this state does not need very marginal major leaguers stealing playing time from valuable youngsters in Binghamton or Buffalo.
Meetings with Beltran and Castillo appear to signal a hopeful reaching out to these players; aging, injury-prone veterans approaching the last years of their deals. Hopefully Alderson will make clear that this will now be a team with a dedication to team play. That if the team deems that Beltran should be in right, and if the team feels that Castillo should be a bench player—and should be ON the bench and findable when needed—that these will be the only acceptable courses of action. A team in the position of the Mets, after two straight disaster years with giant payrolls, has no room for the type of me-first whining exhibited by Castillo and Francoeur last season.
Firing Charlie Samuels also was an unfortunate, but necessary move. Like Tony Bernazard, it appears as though Samuels’ behavior—while ultimately not as destructive as Bernazard’s—may have merited his dismissal long ago. The new sheriff is clearing the decks and making people aware that a new, more demanding regime is in place.
All of this seems to make clear that we will not be seeing the pathologically selfish Oliver Perez virtually force the team to play with a 24-man roster any longer. Ollie’s recent winter ball outings appear to suggest that he is still facing the consequences of being a scatter-armed, undisciplined pitcher without serious secondary pitches whose fastball tops out at 89 mph. Ollie surely will have to somehow magically regain the ability to throw 93-94 pretty quickly, or he will be given the release fans have been demanding.
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The managerial search has been educational as well. Alderson is taking his time, and doing the right thing. Interviewing all sorts: fan favorites like Backman; Melvin and Collins, both twice managers with some success; ex-Met Hurdle; holdovers Jauss and Hale; and more. Perhaps the speculation regarding Collins and Melvin shows that Alderson sees this underachieving group as needing an experienced taskmaster. After the issues ranging from pregame card-playing on a high-paid losing team, to the selfishness exhibited by Castillo, Perez, and others, to the general vibe of contentment with losing, this approach may indeed prove to be most wise and welcomed.
The feeling here is that we have a new regime which is experienced, confident, strong, patient, and determined not to be swayed by the fans or the parasites which make up the mainstream media. This is wonderful.
Alderson knows that in the short run the team is largely hamstrung by what the last regime left behind. The contracts of Beltran, Ollie, and Castillo must go before this team can seriously spend on new established players. It is fine to be “optimistic” but let’s face it, some observers probably would have picked the 1965 or 1980 teams to make playoff runs or insisted that the 2003 team was “a player away.”
Alderson realizes that this is a team in transition; this is a far better word than “rebuilding” to be sure. The trio of albatross contracts, when combined with the commitments to Johan, KRod, Bay, Wright, and Reyes, make the 2011 payroll $100 million plus for starters. In addition, the team simply must give promising kids like Thole, Ike, Niese, and Parnell all of 2011 to see what they truly are. In 2011 Pagan must show if he is June and July’s borderline all star, or August and September’s borderline major leaguer. The team also must see if Reyes is ready to again be the 2006—2008 Jose, or if he is now the 2010 Jose. Players like Mejia, Gee, Tejada, Duda, and Nieuwenhuis must be given another year to be correctly evaluated to see what sort of potential they have to be Mets or valuable trade chips.
Overall, this approach is not only reasonable, but should be applauded.
——————————————————————————————————
The team is not a player or two away; it is almost certainly a year or two away. We should be thankful that Alderson is experienced enough to see this. He clearly is not “giving up” on 2011, as fans who acknowledge the clear reality of the team’s current state often are accused of doing. He understands that the team last year—on and off the field—was a mediocre bunch in all ways. Arrogant, self-satisfied, lazy, and utterly resistant to change or improvement–this is all as important as WAR or UZR or OPS. He needs a year to evaluate what he has and to wait for payroll flexibility to re-emerge.
Surely if the trade deadline approaches and the team is in first place by 5 games, then Alderson will make deadline moves to shore up for a playoff push. But this is not likely.
What is likely is that the new sheriff and his impressive staff will carefully, patiently evaluate the entire organization, and see who is ready to play what will be the new brand of Met-style winning baseball, much as Frank Cashen did in the early 1980s. It took four years for Cashen to turn the mess he inherited into a winning, contending team. The feeling here is that it certainly won’t take that long this time, as Alderson inherits players like Johan Santana and David Wright, and players loaded with the potential to rebound to all-star form like Jose Reyes and Jason Bay. He also has possibly valuable trade pieces in Carlos Beltran and many minor leaguers. In addition, the team is blessed by wealthy ownership who, despite the inane criticism they receive on this front, indeed do spend a lot of money and surely will again when the trio of albatrosses fly away freeing up $35 million plus.
Hiring Alderson and letting him bring in two such high-profile assistants should quell the criticism of Wilpon meddling and commitment to winning for quite a while.
We have a managerial choice yet to critique, the winter meetings, the shape Ollie and Slappy report to Florida in and myriad other issues ahead of us to dissect and evaluate, but the early signs certainly seem to be bright for Met Nation (sorry Rusty!!)
We have a new sheriff in town – a strong, confident, patient, independent man who clearly is in it for the long haul, and appears most dedicated to surrounding himself with quality and strength; ready to remake a most colorful organization into the successful one it once was.
145 comments
fongy2
11/15/2010-8:26am at 8:26 am (UTC -4)
Very sad news about our new GM’s Dad. There is nothing worse than when death strikes this close. To have lived the life John Alderson did
only to have it end at 87 in the way it did is just unfair and wrong.
njstuckintx
11/15/2010-8:51am at 8:51 am (UTC -4)
“mourning”
kingman 26
11/15/2010-8:53am at 8:53 am (UTC -4)
Not what I meant chief; I meant it as in Ronald Reagan’s blather about it being “Morning in America.”
Bad coincidence.
But I suppose I should change it as to not confuse people.
njstuckintx
11/15/2010-9:00am at 9:00 am (UTC -4)
My bad. Had a feeling it was in reference to yesterdays bad news. Man, I am in a funk or something (or just need coffee) as I should be picking up what you are putting down. Missing on Ronny Ray Gun reference. For shame on me.
kingman 26
11/15/2010-9:03am at 9:03 am (UTC -4)
njstuckintx
11/15/2010-8:53am at 8:53 am (UTC -4)
And liked the read, as usual, Kong. Keep em coming.
kingman 26
11/15/2010-8:54am at 8:54 am (UTC -4)
Thank you very much; I sincerely appreciate that.
fongy2
11/15/2010-8:57am at 8:57 am (UTC -4)
Mes think we could use some of that blather right about now.
kingman 26
11/15/2010-9:02am at 9:02 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, definitely. Less regulation and more corporate power are surely what this nation needs right now! That would fix things!
BOTH sides are equally evil. That’s the only rational way to view the mess this nation is in.
Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, and Obama ALL are/were about as honest as Scott Boras and Adam Rubin.
stickguy
11/15/2010-9:23am at 9:23 am (UTC -4)
well, at least we found something to agree on. Since I still say the Mets are a playoff contendor for next year.
fongy2
11/15/2010-9:29am at 9:29 am (UTC -4)
My friend, less regulation equals more freedom.
As for the usual corporaton bashing…..You ever work
for a poor person? As for lumping Reagan in with the
rest you noted…Naive. You’re a historian like me, take
another look at the state of our country and the world pre-1980 and post 1988. Find me a greater leap over a similar
period of time sans tens of millions of death, world wars
and alike.
kingman 26
11/15/2010-9:54am at 9:54 am (UTC -4)
How many American jobs have these corporations eliminated as they move everything to Latin America, Eastern Europe, and the wonderful democracy of China?
Both parties work very hard 24/7 to sell out the average American to the lowest overseas bidder.
Fong, I tremendously like and respect you, and I am sincerely sorry I used the word “blather”–did not mean to offend.
And I DID use “Morning in Met Nation” because I remember Reagan’s slogan so well.
njstuckintx
11/15/2010-10:10am at 10:10 am (UTC -4)
Kong,
A discussion on multi-nationalism and protectionism is probably a discussion best suited in other locations, even though a spirited debate would do wonders for hits on the site.
I was reading about “Chindia” last night, concerning the Indian/Chinese relations and trade history they have. One point was noted that it costs less to export raw plastic to China and import back in finished buckets than it does to manufacture buckets themselves in India. If that’s the case (and it happens world wide), it’s best to change the current local practices to become competitive than it is to try an impose tariffs and embargoes. With the world becoming a smaller place every day, embargoes and tariffs mean less & less as there are more options out there for said producer to find takers for their wares.
kingman 26
11/15/2010-10:15am at 10:15 am (UTC -4)
Agreed.
Wish I had not used that word.
I agree on much of what you say, but I do not think most of us would prefer a world where we lived in a society like China currently is.
We would not even be free to debate like this on the internet.
fongy2
11/15/2010-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
Last word from me on this….The kicker to your point
and Brocks is that in places like China and India, there are NO standards of practice, care for the people or enviroment. You think ANY jobs would go overseas if these companies were allowed to employ
prison labor there was no EPA and no one could file
a lawsuit? C’mon!….Yes, most large corporations
suck in many ways BUT frankly this county still runs mainly on the work provided by and products produced by medium to medium large companies
who have been getting killed because of politics for the past decade.
fongy2
11/15/2010-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
LOL my friend….You didn’t offend me. Just stating a
different opinion. I don’t completely agree or disagree
with almost anyone politically. As I said before I’m a
former moderate Dem turned turned moderate Repub
turned serious Libertarian with a pretty good idea of
all sides of an argument AND while it does suck that
many large corporations move overseas for cheap labor it makes simple sense. Union costs and lower
standards of and within regulations mainly causes this.
Not the desire to be a villain. Corporations are in biz to make money not provide a lifetime of comfort to those
who work for them at the cost of everyone else….I.E.
American Car Companies or in a more persoanal case
my stepfather who was a welder for the NYCTA and retired at 55 with a better standard of living than 99% of the word despite being a H.S. drop-out.
kingman 26
11/15/2010-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)
Glad I did not offend you, and as you know, I certainly respect your opinion!
Back to baseball!
Prismo
11/15/2010-10:01am at 10:01 am (UTC -4)
+44
kingman 26
11/15/2010-10:03am at 10:03 am (UTC -4)
Hey buddy, nice to be on the same page so much lately!
I always knew you were damn intelligent!!
fongy2
11/15/2010-10:21am at 10:21 am (UTC -4)
I told you my friend many many times, Iam very hard
to offend and while pretty well read and self-education
with strong opinions about some things, I’m no expert
about ANYTHING….And I always remember that no matter how informed I am about a subject and how
strong my opinion because of it……I could be wrong!
kingman 26
11/15/2010-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
Agreed with every word!
And the Fish are right back in the thick of the mix!!
We beat Chicago Thurs and we are on a roll!!
Prismo
11/15/2010-10:20am at 10:20 am (UTC -4)
Boiling politics down to its bare bones, I, like you, find that you can trust neither party with fiscal issues. In theory, I side closer to fundamental Republicanism, where costs and spending are as low as possible. Of course, we haven’t actually seen that from a Republican since…when? I don’t mind spending when it’s on things like education and health care, but I do mind spending when it’s billions of dollars for wars I don’t support.
So, trusting neither side on those issues, I tend to focus on social issues, where I agree with the Democrats 99 times out of 100. I also think that, say, raising or lowering taxes by 2% is so much LESS important that giving everyone the right to “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness” including people who want to marry someone of their own gender.
Just my take.
fongy2
11/15/2010-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
1994………And taxes ain’t the problem……It’s spending!
Plain and simple. When you’re in debt you don’t open
a bunch more Credit Card accounts to pay what you
already owe AND keep on spending like you have….
You first stop spending!….It ain’t that complicated!
metsfan4decades
11/15/2010-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
Down to the grass roots of the problem and I couldn’t agree more.
That’s my short rant of the day on modern American politics….
TRS86
11/15/2010-9:31am at 9:31 am (UTC -4)
While I disagree on next year, or 2012′s, competitive ability it is a well written piece. I still disagree on how many players you deem to be selfish and lazy but hell I am in denial so what do I know. LOL.
kingman 26
11/15/2010-9:55am at 9:55 am (UTC -4)
+10
Prismo
11/15/2010-9:45am at 9:45 am (UTC -4)
I think being optimistic and possibly having to wait 2 years to be competitive are kind of opposites, no?
After all, this is a Mets team which was competitive most recently in 2008, and all the biggest talent is still on the team.
Just about any team should be able to get competitive within a 2 year span, so is every team’s outlook optimistic?
Personally, I think the Mets can be competitive right *now* – you just never know!
But otherwise, I agree with everything you said (and that first part was just a small bit of your piece).
Sandy can take as much time off as he wants (within reason) – but I imagine it’ll be ~3 days off and he’ll be right back in the thick of it, maybe even less.
fongy2
11/15/2010-9:50am at 9:50 am (UTC -4)
Agreed! It’s become pretty obvious that our next Mgr will be Collins or Melvin. Since there are still plenty of options for Coaching positions from within, why panic?
This team isn’t in a state of disaster and we should all be optimistic
about next year BUT no Johan likely means contending will be
super-difficult. Going foward though having the likes of Wright,Reyes,Ike,Thole,Bay & Beltran to anchor a line-up ain’t bad.
kingman 26
11/15/2010-10:08am at 10:08 am (UTC -4)
“I think being optimistic and possibly having to wait 2 years to be competitive are kind of opposites, no?”
Good question.
I guess what I am thinking is that I sincerely feel optimistic for years into the future. Alderson’s attitude appears to be one where he is just getting settled, just getting his hards dirty, and laying the foundation–as Cashen did–for years of success, not a 2006-style one year success.
Looks to me like when we start being very good, which should be no later than 2012, we could potentially be very good for years, and Sandy may have his successor in place already, and might even be doing what Grave suggested, in getting ready to hire a Melvin/Collins to manage for a couple of years, while interviewing Backman and Oberkfell to size them up, leave them in the minors, and potentially already have a successor in place to the next manager.
Overall, I am not expecting huge change or the playoffs in 2011, but I AM expecting contention pretty much every year starting in 2012.
Prismo
11/15/2010-11:14am at 11:14 am (UTC -4)
Thanks for the clarification! I understand better now, and am right with ya!
rustyjr
11/15/2010-9:50am at 9:50 am (UTC -4)
As usual great work my friend
kingman 26
11/15/2010-9:54am at 9:54 am (UTC -4)
Thanks Pal.
Mr North Jersey
11/15/2010-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
I am not sold that it was Alderson’s call to suspend Samuels their is a small window but i just don’t know when the Wilpon’s hired him and filled in him on the Samuel investigation.
We know Alderson’s last interview was on Oct 26 and that reports were that he was the next GM but the Mets released a statement that night that they had nothing to report.
“”We have nothing to announce tonight,” a team spokesman said in an e-mail late Tuesday. ”
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101026&content_id=15853696&vkey=news_nym&c_id=nym
We know that Samuels was suspended on Oct 27.
“Last Wednesday (Oct 27), the Mets suspended Charlie Samuels indefinitely without pay,” the statement read. “As this is an ongoing personnel matter, we have no further comment.”
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101104&content_id=15998652&vkey=news_nym&c_id=nym&partnerId=rss_nym
It is possible that Alderson signed a contract with the Mets the evening of Oct 26 or early Oct 27th and then was told about the Samuels situation but considering the Samuels investigation initiated by the Mets was ongoing since earlier that summer I am of the belief the decision to suspend Samuels before the Alderson press conf was a Wilpon decision and not a Alderson one.
Prismo
11/15/2010-10:09am at 10:09 am (UTC -4)
Well in the end, even a chimp would’ve suspended and fired him after the gambling stuff came out.
Mr North Jersey
11/15/2010-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)
i agree with you 100%. The point was that as far as giving credit where credit is due I believe the trio of Fred Wilpon, Jeff Wilpon and Saul Katz should be recognized for how they handled Samuels rather than Alderson which Kingy did when he wrote “The new sheriff is clearing the decks and making people aware that a new, more demanding regime is in place.”
kingman 26
11/15/2010-10:12am at 10:12 am (UTC -4)
Psssst—Samuels was FIRED Friday, November 12.
That was my point; I did not say anything about his being suspended
Surely there is enough to criticize in what I DID write.
Mr North Jersey
11/15/2010-10:20am at 10:20 am (UTC -4)
True and I am sure you would agree that once he was suspended there was no way he was coming back and being fired was an inevitability right?
The only point i wanted to make was that I think the Samuels situation was already set in stone before Alderson ever took the job. It is not like had Alderson not been hired there was going to be a different outcome with Samuels.
The Wilpons had already set in motion the removal of Samuels b4 anyone was named GM.
Mr North Jersey
11/15/2010-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
@magelb Matt Gelb
The #Phillies have hired Ryne Sandberg to be their triple-A manager.
4 minutes ago via TweetDeck
http://twitter.com/magelb/status/4188398004731904
oleosmirf
11/15/2010-10:12am at 10:12 am (UTC -4)
this season is going to be a tough one. the lineup is set except for 2B but the big question is what we will get from our rotation minus Santana.
if you really believe Pelfrey, Dickey, Niese a back end SP like Padilla and the ST winner for the 5th SP (lets say Gee) can keep the Mets right with the Phillies and Braves until Santana returns then I credit your optimism
kingman 26
11/15/2010-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
I sure don’t. I think a .500+ 3rd place finish is what is to be reasonably expected.
I do think playoff contention in 2012 will be realistic.
oleosmirf
11/15/2010-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
that to me is very reasonable. i think we will get 78-84 wins and if PHI or ATL arent as good for whatever reason, and guys like Bay, Beltran, Reyes go back to their old ways and we get the pitching from Dickey, Pelf and Niese we got for most of last season then the playoffs is possible
TRS86
11/15/2010-10:33am at 10:33 am (UTC -4)
I expect just what I did this year 80-88 wins.
fongy2
11/15/2010-10:41am at 10:41 am (UTC -4)
A little early for predictions…No?
TRS86
11/15/2010-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
You might say that. I think I am basing it on the level of talent I THINK they will acquire.
fongy2
11/15/2010-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
You are funny dude!….
njstuckintx
11/15/2010-10:21am at 10:21 am (UTC -4)
I’ll continue to beat a dead horse or unicorn until the inevitable “not happening” occurs. Sign Garland and trade for Garza/Shields. Those 2 moves alone would put this team into wild card discussion.
oleosmirf
11/15/2010-10:28am at 10:28 am (UTC -4)
of course it would, so would trading for Pujols
Prismo
11/15/2010-10:29am at 10:29 am (UTC -4)
omg is it possible!?!?!
njstuckintx
11/15/2010-10:32am at 10:32 am (UTC -4)
You don’t think adding those 2 is possible?
TRS86
11/15/2010-10:35am at 10:35 am (UTC -4)
I think Garland is and Garza is a longshot.
oleosmirf
11/15/2010-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
Garland I dont even see happening but certainly not unrealistic. him and Garza though is too much
njstuckintx
11/15/2010-10:53am at 10:53 am (UTC -4)
But why? I know the Mets aren’t the Yanks, but they had a need for SP last year and BAM! CC and AJ were signed. Hindsight does make the AJ signing look bad, but the point being is they had a need and they went out and filled it. If the Mets can’t get creative and sign a Garland and trade for someone (maybe not Garza, but a Shields or something comparable) then we are going to be in for a long year.
Maybe that long year will be better suited to bring long term success. But operation Hope and Change doesn’t work now, so to think that it’ll work going forward with Pelf, RA & Niese with Gee and a reclamation project is going work, as mentioned before, it’ll be a long season.
I’m in a bad zone here. I need to step away and find where I dropped my ticket for the Float O’ Optimism. Uff Da.
stickguy
11/15/2010-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
I don’t see any reason they can’t get 2 guys of that mid-rotation caliber. garland can’t be that expensive, and there should be some other relatively equivilant options available.
Garza might be an issue due to player demands from TB, but again, they should be able to trade for someone. The MiL system does have a decent amount of solid prospects now, even at the top.
so don’t hold me to any names, but if the rotation is Pelf, Neise, DIckey and 2 new guys roughly equal to garland and shields, will you feel better? With Johan coming back whenever, and Gee waiting in AAA?
njstuckintx
11/15/2010-11:12am at 11:12 am (UTC -4)
absolutely better. Not quite euphoric, but close.
stickguy
11/15/2010-10:26am at 10:26 am (UTC -4)
I don’t think the OF is set either (well, we are stuck with LF. Alderson would have to have graduated from Hogwarts to make Bay disappear). no guarantee Pagan and/or Beltran or with the team opening day, and if they are, who is play where (CF/RF or 4th OF.
probably also a chance there is a new C, but I think Thole is still in the mix for regular work.
SS also a long shot to change, but possible.
so I think you are right that 2B is a given (Or at least, I really, really hope it is!), with RF still TBD.
and I don’t think this is a bad thing, since the rest of the players are actually good to very good. 4 guys that are mutliple time all stars, still theoreticlaly in their primes, a very promising rookie at 1B, and catcher.
oleosmirf
11/15/2010-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
Pagan and Beltran are gonna be here opening day. Beltran’s value is not high enough and Pagan did everything right last season, plus you need Pagan if/when Beltran gets hurt.
not to mention Pagan is a better (and cheaper) OF than pretty much any other option and it doesnt make sense to trade prospects for a slight upgrade in RF
stickguy
11/15/2010-10:45am at 10:45 am (UTC -4)
pagan isn’t a prospect, if that is who you mean to trade.
I have no idea personally what other teams think of Beltran, and what they would trade for him. It would surprise me, but not shock me, if he was traded before the season starts. It is possible.
And to dust off a one of my golden oldie theories, the Mets need to have a solid 4 man OF rotation. Not 3 starters and a couple of bench guys you hope never have to play. Bay may need more time off this year, and Beltran defintely has to be managed like a catcher to preserve his knees. and Pagan has pretty noticeable platoon splits.
so, a 4th guy (Duda! Duda! Duda!) to get regular PT in the corners, letting pagan spot Beltran and bay when needed, whould make the team better overall. Plus, if Beltran goes down or gets traded, you have a replacement all set to go.
oh, and it is good planning for the future (2012) when Mr. creaky knees 2 (slappy being #1) is gone.
TRS86
11/15/2010-10:30am at 10:30 am (UTC -4)
I am just not sure what the Braves even have at this point. As for the Phillies I still expect them to be the class of the league but age can strike at any time.
stickguy
11/15/2010-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
Braves? overrated SP, a couple of promising young hitters, a good catcher, and some young arms in the pen.
Phillies get the nod until they prove otherwise. They are going to really be riding the old guys inthe rotation this year, and the offense has some serious potential to decline from age + losing werth.
fongy2
11/15/2010-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)
Themand The Yankees in The AL. It’s got to happen eventually!
The Phils will have problems with Ibanez in LF, replacing Werth
in RF, Polanco’s age and injuries @3B and Lidge’s age and
injuries as their Closer.Their system won’t be producing much for the next couple of years and their budget is aready busting.
So……. ALSO, don’t know if I missed it BUT what about The Phils
cutting loose Davey Lopes??…On the heels of Milt Thompson??
These things have an effect.
stickguy
11/15/2010-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
Lopes wanted to get paid for what he did. Phils wanted to pay him like a 1B coach. Expect that to impact the running game, although with their current roster, very few guys with the speed to run anyway.
and Utley seems to be aging in Roberto ALomar years at 2B. That hip and repeated wrist injuries are huge red flags. And if he can’t hit like he used to, and werth is gone, they will be relying on that rotation.
hell, they will be the Giants. 3 Sps and little offense!
stickguy
11/15/2010-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
I stil think this team is a viable playoff (at least WC) contendor in 2011. Of course they need to add some players. It is the beginning of the hot stove season. every team needs to add some players!
But, the Mets already have a ton of high end talent on the roster, and some very promising young guys that have already shown the ability to play at the ML level.
They were also serious contenders a whopping 4 months ago (at the ASB). 48040 in mid July, and 1 game out of th eWC lead, clumped up with the Giants, Braves, and a few other teams. IOW, there peer group. ANd that was without many wins from Johan, meaning that others were carrying the load.
That God Damned P.R. trip just killed them I still say. that combined with a couple of very poorly timed slumps (DW and IKe), and a couple of fluke crushing injuries (Bay’s head, Reyes oblique) and Beltran coming back too soon (something a lazy slacker would not do) just put them into a hole they neve rcame out of.
Oh, and Jerry being a clueless non-leader.
Now, I can’t guarantee Beltran will be healthy and play 155 games. But he showed in September that he still had game, and he will be in his contract year. And Bay can’t possilby be worse in year 2 (as in, it is impossible!). Reyes hopefully does not have to miss ST again. Ike has a year under his belt. A new 2B etc . etc. etc.
Only Johan likely missing a serious portion of the season is a real negative.
anyway, my point is simply that I see this team, with the expected few moves to come (1-2 SPs added, a new 2B (even if in house), some pen arms, and maybe a surprise), to be at least as good as the 2011 team was up to July. Which means perfectly capable, and talented enough, tht with a competant manager they can win the WC.
oleosmirf
11/15/2010-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
thats the thing though, Santana is so important to that pitching staff. Do you really think Dickey and Pelf will go out and go neck and neck with Josh Johnson, Adam Wainright, Tim Hudson and the other aces of the NL. Its a lot to ask for…
stickguy
11/15/2010-10:53am at 10:53 am (UTC -4)
on a good day, yes. Plus, we have not seen yet who gets brought in.
most of last year, santana wasn’t beating those guys anyway!
oleosmirf
11/15/2010-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
that wasnt Santana’s fault though. that was due to lack of run support. do you really think Pelf wins 15 games and Dickey wins 11 games pitching higher up in the rotation?
stickguy
11/15/2010-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
if it is just about matchups, then someone else in the rotation will just pick up the “cheap” wins that pelf and dickey got.
actualy, if Dickey pitches like he did last year, hell yeah he will get 15 wins.
rotations don’t stay exactly aligned like that anyway all year.
stickguy
11/15/2010-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)
But seriously, losing Santana for the year (and I expect him to miss most if not all, and to be a shell at first if he does come back) is a huge blow. It would be to any team, and it will make it harder to win next year, but I think they still have enough to compete.
TRS86
11/15/2010-10:56am at 10:56 am (UTC -4)
They don’t really have to. You don’t get a lot of Ace vs Ace matchups anyway. In the regular season it pays just as much to have a deep rotation as it does to have a true ace. Now the playoffs are a different monster. So while not sexy the Mets can live without Johan as long as they get decent production out of the 5 that are starting.
fongy2
11/15/2010-11:01am at 11:01 am (UTC -4)
Stick is on the money about the Johan thing. You’re right
about your point too TRS BUT a good team needs and Ace and
a real good 2 & 3. Not just for match-ups but for what they do for the other guys in the rotaion(lets them be ordinary) AND
especially the BP. Like we saw too much with Jerry, you simply
can’t use 4,5,6 guys every night out of the BP and survive.
No one has that good a pen with that many rubber arms.
stickguy
11/15/2010-11:06am at 11:06 am (UTC -4)
Well, in many cases, the 4/5/6 guys out of the pen was because Jerry was an idiot, not the rotation.
I still say that a team with 5 #3 that can pitch deep into games on a regular basis is plenty to get to the playoffs (winning a short series many be a different thing. just ask the Braves!).
and when Dickey, neise and Pelf were all pitching well at the same time, that is pretty much what they had. Solid 7 inning outings day after day.
and probably better than having a 1 and a 1A, and 3 #5s behind them. At least for the regular season.
fongy2
11/15/2010-11:12am at 11:12 am (UTC -4)
I don’t know about better BUT I do agree mostly with your
point. It works to survive and can work to help a team w/o
a great Ace and #2 contend. However, come playoffs
you’ll be a quick out the a rotation of #3s.
b/t/w Stick, please tell me thats your dog and not some…
comes with the wallet-or-found it on the internet photo
stickguy
11/15/2010-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
Yes, that is my buddy Cooper.
If you need a bag of blond lab hair, let me know. That goes for everone. I got plenty.
Ceetar
11/15/2010-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
I’d trade you for a bag of gray and black cat fur.
fongy2
11/15/2010-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)
Problem was no depth….No room for error this past season.
If, if, if…… If Bay is Bay and could have had a run of a few weeks after the A.S.break and actually have carried the team to a few victories, it would have help. Same with Johan staying healthy
or KRod no playing the role of Mike Tyson.
The team was O.K…..Not great, not give VERY good but O.K. good,
playing pretty well…..BUT no room for error at all.
Once we had a problem here or there, there wasn’t even talent,
a good enough Mgr or sharp enough GM to swithch things a little
on the fly to keep on rolling.
stickguy
11/15/2010-11:01am at 11:01 am (UTC -4)
Fongy, other than the comment about the manager and GM (now addressed!), that description sounds about like every mid-pack WC contending team. Good, some holes, need a few breaks, etc.
Mr North Jersey
11/15/2010-11:04am at 11:04 am (UTC -4)
like the Marlins right?
fongy2
11/15/2010-11:14am at 11:14 am (UTC -4)
And The Jay’s and The Tigers and The Whitesox and The
Angels and the Cards and the Rox….Which is about where
we were…..Except in most of those casesthey had better
Mgmt.
Mr North Jersey
11/15/2010-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
OK have 2 ask is Rox slang for Rockies?
stickguy
11/15/2010-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
yes, normally.
Mr North Jersey
11/15/2010-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
Ahh I wasn’t sure if Fongy was trying to say Red Sox and it just came out as Rox.
Mr North Jersey
11/15/2010-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
Your optimism is refreshing. I think if the Mets can replicate that great 33 game stretch last season which was their best ball though brief then look out MLB.
That short stretch that started on May 21 when the Yanks came to Citi and ended on Jun 27 vs the Twins saw the Mets play 13 games above .500 with a record of 23-10. They pitched 7 shutouts including the famous Goose egg sweep vs the Phils.
after that stretch the Mets flew to P.R. to play Florida and they were never that good again.
Mr North Jersey
11/15/2010-11:01am at 11:01 am (UTC -4)
Having said that the idea that they can replicate that will be very hard indeed.
stickguy
11/15/2010-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
they probably will have a super hot stretch at some point. Pretty much any good team that makes the playoffs (or is super close to it) does.
The key is to avoid the extended period of ineptitude next year.
THe talent is there certainly for the win streak (really just requires a bunch of them to get hot at the same time).
Avoiding the losing death spiral though is more about depth and health. And the manager, can’t forget to get my Jerry dig in here.
Mr North Jersey
11/15/2010-11:17am at 11:17 am (UTC -4)
I’ll just say that I am happy you have so much optimism for 2011.
TRS86
11/15/2010-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
Of course that also would = 113 wins on the season if they were to duplicate that the entire year
oleosmirf
11/15/2010-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
the SP the Mets got during that stretch is impossible to replicate over a 162 game season especially now with Santana not being there.
stickguy
11/15/2010-11:12am at 11:12 am (UTC -4)
teams have highs and lows. You get the wins when you can, and hope they add up to enough at the end. Of course, no one expects a team to win at the exact same pace all year.
fongy2
11/15/2010-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
Bottom line though is that despite a great 1st half we
finished with the 20th best record(out of 30 teams) in
Baseball. So…..There’s alot of work that needs to be done.
TRS86
11/15/2010-11:22am at 11:22 am (UTC -4)
Yes the question has to be answered why did they stink so badly in the 2nd half.
Mr North Jersey
11/15/2010-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
#BlameBeltran
Mr North Jersey
11/15/2010-11:22am at 11:22 am (UTC -4)
“Of course, no one expects a team to win at the exact same pace all year.”
Agreed stick
Ceetar
11/15/2010-11:22am at 11:22 am (UTC -4)
The big blow was the All-Star break. They had a tough road trip coming up, but the Mets chose
A. Not to set up their rotation so their best two pitchers got to pitch more, favoring babying them instead.
B. rushing back guys from the DL in Castillo and Beltran, and expecting them to just step up like they’d been in games for weeks.
C. Not resting/sitting/DLing Reyes before the break so that he was fully healthy and ready to go afterwards.
All these things, combined with a bad manager who always plays without his best reliever on the road, started a death spiral that they couldnt’ recover from.
Mr North Jersey
11/15/2010-11:25am at 11:25 am (UTC -4)
OK what gives?
Is there a quota for how many times we have to say “death spiral” in a post?
Ceetar
11/15/2010-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
yes.
now if you’re looking for a snicker, sylow is bound to show up and say something stupid in the Murphy post on metsblog.
or we can laugh that some beat writers are thinking Warthen remains with this team, despite not even finishing first round managerial interviews yet.
Mr North Jersey
11/15/2010-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
LoL I see his reputation preceeds him.
metslee2011
Nov 15, 2010, 10:52 am at 10:52 am #
Sylow on line one.
stickguy
11/15/2010-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
Of all the reasons I want to see Murphy starting at 2B on opening day, watching Sylow’s head explode (in a virtual sense) is very high on the list.
almost as high as having something passing for viable offense from the position. and no real dead spots in the batting order, since either murphy or thole would get shoved to 8th.
Ceetar
11/15/2010-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
too early for me to st art thinking batting orders and lineups. I barely like that stuff in spring, but yeah. Murphy fits in well. He’s not doing so badly offensively right now and his defense is his primary focus.
stickguy
11/15/2010-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
not meaning to worry about who bats where, just pointin gout that if you look at the expected starters (assuming Thole and Murphy, with the rest carry over), one of those guys would end up being the 8th best hitter in the line up.
Ceetar
11/15/2010-12:03pm at 12:03 pm (UTC -4)
well, 8th best/7th best, wahtever, I think it means that we could go into the season with no rookies and not playing guys that hit below .250 (frenchy, tejada, Cora, etc) AVG isn’t everything,but with that lineup you are gonna get guys on base, extend innings, score runs. less outs made (and less bunts you’d hope). I can’t wait to see how refreshing the difference is with a new coaching staff.
Mr North Jersey
11/15/2010-11:54am at 11:54 am (UTC -4)
Nothing would make me happier than to see Murphy find success in 2011 for the Mets. I think of many of the Mets to come up from the farm his work ethic and determination is bar none the best i’ve seen from a kid in a very long time.
I just feel that he has to make me believe he still has something to offer because I don’t think he does.
When I chronicled the battle for 1st base last Spring with those tale of the tape posts I did. Davis beat him handedly.
http://realdirtymets.com/2010/03/18/trdmb-tale-of-the-tape-murphydavis-3182010/
I hope Murphy can come in and make the team. I’d much rather watch him grow than a aging vet like Castillo. I just don’t have faith that he can.
njstuckintx
11/15/2010-1:12pm at 1:12 pm (UTC -4)
Go Big Murph!
oleosmirf
11/15/2010-11:54am at 11:54 am (UTC -4)
Murphy is going to be the best offensive player we can get at 2B thats not debateable, the question is can he play defense at even a Dan Uggla level.
Mr North Jersey
11/15/2010-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
quick bet your house on it. your a sure bet to win it back 10 fold.
metsfan4decades
11/15/2010-11:58am at 11:58 am (UTC -4)
Nice post – overall I agree with the sentiment with Alderson on board, we’ll be looking long term to compete – no going year to year with fingers crossed.
I’m still not ready to write off 2011 yet. Of course, to me it’s a little hard to predict one way or another until I know what this team looks like come opening day – namely pitching – and where the other NL east teams stand as well.
What worries me the most is pitching. Our ‘ace’ come Opening Day and probably a good portion of the season will be Pelfrey, I’m assuming. So we’re pitting Pelf against the true aces of all other teams in the rotation, until we get well into the season where rainouts and such alter rotations. That’s a big step up we’re asking of Pelf….
Ceetar
11/15/2010-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
The Ace versus Ace thing doesn’t necessarly happen that regularly. And it means our lesser pitchers will face the other crap anyway. this is why it’s imporant to have solid guys 1-5. Try to get to their Ace with offense, if not, have faith that all your pitchers can keep you in the game.
njstuckintx
11/15/2010-1:12pm at 1:12 pm (UTC -4)
I always wondered it if would make sense to throw Our # 5 at the Opposition’s #1, then Our #1 and Their #2, so on and so forth. So, 4 out of 5 matchups should be in Our favor, right? I know it all comes down the the quality pitches that are had on a staff, but in theory, that should work, no?
Ceetar
11/15/2010-1:45pm at 1:45 pm (UTC -4)
well, you might face the Marlins 1-2-3 with our 5-1-2, but then we might go to Philly and face their 1-2-3 and we’d have our 3-4-5.
It really doesn’t matter I don’t think. Gotta look at it from your own standpoint. Pitch well, hit well, win games. don’t worry about the opponent, because if you start trying to ‘give away’ games, you end up in trouble anyway.
stickguy
11/15/2010-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
right now, Dickey is the “ace”, although I don’t think you should be using that term. Just call him the #1 pitcher in the rotation. Hey, someone has to go first!
Ceetar
11/15/2010-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t think it’ll be determined until March, but I wouldn’t have a problem giving Dickey the april fools day start. Maybe Manuel’s “start the series off with a knuckler” theory is a good one. especially if you follow that up with hardthrowing Big Pelf and then big hook niese.
stickguy
11/15/2010-1:53pm at 1:53 pm (UTC -4)
probably best to accually wait until we know which 5 pitchers are going to be in the rotation too!
njstuckintx
11/15/2010-1:55pm at 1:55 pm (UTC -4)
Garza, Pelf, Niese, Dickey, Garland!
TRS86
11/15/2010-2:04pm at 2:04 pm (UTC -4)
You keep at it, LOL.
I would settle at this point for
Dickey, Pelfrey, Niese, Garland and Davies. I still think he is a kid that could benefit from a switch to the NL. Still throws hard.
metsfan4decades
11/15/2010-2:24pm at 2:24 pm (UTC -4)
I see Buster Posey won NL ROY and Feliz won AL ROY.
Someone over on MLBTR says:
I was watching sportscenter when this was announced and they didn’t even say Neftali Feliz’s name, apparently he’s just “the texas ranger’s closer” .
Thankfully, I get MLB network so never watch sports center anymore…
njstuckintx
11/15/2010-2:31pm at 2:31 pm (UTC -4)
I saw Ike got 2 votes.
Ceetar
11/15/2010-2:44pm at 2:44 pm (UTC -4)
nice of them. surprised Posey won. I think they’d already printed the trophy with Heyward’s name on it back in March.
They heavily favored playoff teams. Surprised Garcia didn’t get more votes. Also, David wasn’t that far off of what Heyward did, certainly not 100+ ROY points worth.
Mr North Jersey
11/15/2010-2:52pm at 2:52 pm (UTC -4)
I wonder how it would of ended had Strasburg never gotten hurt?
metsfan4decades
11/15/2010-3:02pm at 3:02 pm (UTC -4)
Too hard to predict what Strasburg would have done had he not been hurt. The way it was going though, all eyes were on him.
I thought for sure Heyward would get it. Looks like those in the running that get to the WS have an ‘edge’ over those that don’t. Just like MVP voting usually goes, if it’s close.
fongy2
11/15/2010-3:03pm at 3:03 pm (UTC -4)
We wuz robbed!
Mr North Jersey
11/15/2010-3:05pm at 3:05 pm (UTC -4)
lol, Hey! that’s Rusty’s line.
njstuckintx
11/15/2010-3:06pm at 3:06 pm (UTC -4)
Posey was a monster though. Great D. He was the real deal, for sure. As the year went on, I couldn’t think of another who would have won the award otherwise.
fongy2
11/15/2010-3:11pm at 3:11 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, makes sense. Catcher/Clean-up hitter on a team
which actually made the playoffs.
b/t/w, I know we all love Lebeau BUT last night’s planning was pretty friggin awful! Combine THAT with
Arians continued horrific play calling AND our line
injuries and I’ve suddenly become very nervous about even making the playoffs.
njstuckintx
11/15/2010-3:31pm at 3:31 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, it hurt. Donkey kick to the crotch type hurt. The O line just looked lost. I don’t fear that they’ll make the playoffs, but the whole best team in the league title is dust in the wind. Same for the G-men, too.
stickguy
11/15/2010-3:33pm at 3:33 pm (UTC -4)
this year, is there even any team that can lay claim to being “the best”?
njstuckintx
11/15/2010-3:38pm at 3:38 pm (UTC -4)
Very much a “Any given Sunday” type league this year.
metsfan4decades
11/15/2010-3:14pm at 3:14 pm (UTC -4)
I think Posey deserved it, no question.
I just wonder if he would have gotten it had they not made it to the WS.
fongy2
11/15/2010-3:23pm at 3:23 pm (UTC -4)
I’m pretty sure the voting is conducted before the
playoffs begin.
stickguy
11/15/2010-3:03pm at 3:03 pm (UTC -4)
He would have won unless he totally lost it.
fongy2
11/15/2010-3:06pm at 3:06 pm (UTC -4)
b/t/w Stick, on your earlier comment….I’ll trade you some
of your dog hair for some of mine.
We have a Dyson and every friggin weekend the thing gets clogged from Otto’s hair. Damn Dog!
metsfan4decades
11/15/2010-3:13pm at 3:13 pm (UTC -4)
I am the Queen of vacuums over here. Having had the pleasure of sharing my house with 3 Golden Retrievers over the years since ’83, I’ve burned through more vacuums than I can remember.
I don’t care what they advertise. If you own a long haired dog, expect to spend a chunk of your budget on vacuums.
That’s fine though. Wouldn’t trade my dogs for the $$ for anything…
fongy2
11/15/2010-3:25pm at 3:25 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed!!!
The Dyson is tremendous BUT It’s body
is cheaply made. The motor alone is not worth $500!
stickguy
11/15/2010-3:35pm at 3:35 pm (UTC -4)
the lab is at least short haired. Just a lot of the undercoat comes off (especially when my daughter does not keep up with the furminating). It is like a fine layor of snow on the floor. and the table. and the desk…
stickguy
11/15/2010-3:31pm at 3:31 pm (UTC -4)
The Dopeass factor over at FWICG seems to be ratcheting up to another level lately.
Sorry Ceetar, I abandoned you on the field of battle to go at it alone.
fongy2
11/15/2010-3:41pm at 3:41 pm (UTC -4)
LOL “the furminator”….We got ripped off for that too.
I can’t believe how much hair this dog dumps this time of yr for
a short hair mutt!…..So much for being assured by th breader
that a 1st generation Beagle/Pug mix won’t shed much!
GravediggerHebner
11/15/2010-3:39pm at 3:39 pm (UTC -4)
Haven’t read through the over 130 comments yet just first wanted to say I agree with the original post. I’m approaching the team right now with a lot of patience and a lot of long term (post 2011) optimism. If 2011 pleasantly surprises me I surely won’t complain.
fongy2
11/15/2010-3:42pm at 3:42 pm (UTC -4)
what was the topic again????
GravediggerHebner
11/15/2010-3:58pm at 3:58 pm (UTC -4)
Alderson’s acquiring too many white people. Les Mets Blanc.
I have The Furminator too. It’s great for about 4 hours, then more hair. I’m not sure whether to blame the tool or the dog. Right now I’m going to take her for a walk so she can spend a few minutes shedding outside.
metsfan4decades
11/15/2010-4:08pm at 4:08 pm (UTC -4)
I could spend 2 hours using the ferminator and like you said, Grave, a few hours later – more hair. It’s some kind of conspiracy. No hair can grow that quick – LOL.
stickguy
11/15/2010-4:27pm at 4:27 pm (UTC -4)
I like to take him outside to play, and rub him up good. Hair flies all over, and he loves it.
I figure that any hair outside is that much less inside.
The Furminator does a great job. he just grows it at an incredible rate. I have no idea why he is not bald at this point.
njstuckintx
11/15/2010-4:28pm at 4:28 pm (UTC -4)
Per MLBTR – Rick Peterson is officially out as the team’s pitching coach, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Peterson was let go with a year remaining on his contract; Rosenthal notes that the Pirates, Mets, and Yankees have openings.
stickguy
11/15/2010-4:45pm at 4:45 pm (UTC -4)
Rockin Leo is out there too.
Or just let Bobby O do it from the booth.
njstuckintx
11/15/2010-4:48pm at 4:48 pm (UTC -4)
Much like TV reporters not wearing pants and who know what judges wear underneath those robes, It’s never been confirmed if the jacket was actually wearing his jersey. food for thought.
Ceetar
11/15/2010-7:47pm at 7:47 pm (UTC -4)
Terry Francona was actually nearly fined for that.
GravediggerHebner
11/15/2010-4:55pm at 4:55 pm (UTC -4)
For NJstuckinTX:
The Jacket
njstuckintx
11/15/2010-5:13pm at 5:13 pm (UTC -4)
So much for that convoluted theory…
metsfan4decades
11/15/2010-6:07pm at 6:07 pm (UTC -4)
Man, these guys all just bounce around from team to team. Very few have the type of tenure Bobby Cox had.
Makes you wonder just how much success does have to do with any of the coaches.