David Wright has had too good offensive seasons since the opening of Citi Field, but a few Mets fans and media outlets have noticed a slight decrease in production. Every now and then, you can find a blog post or talking head speak about his increase in strikeouts or his inability to hit in Citi Field. Now, I know these concerns probably have not been heard by any Mets fan dozens of times over, nor have any over-hasty or sensationalized claims stating that David’s time as useful player are done. But I think it could be interesting to take a look at David’s production over the last two years and see how and why it has changed.
In 2007-2008, David was the best third-basemen in the major leagues according to fangraphs’ WAR metric, and most of his value came from his offense. David posted wOBAs of .420 and .397 in those two seasons, both elite numbers, especially for a third-basemen. His combined triple slash from 2007-08 was .311/.401/.540, good for a .941 OPS.
In 2009 and 2010, David swung the bat to the tune of .368 and .364 wOBAs, respectively (both still good numbers, by the way). After converting all these wOBAs to win values and comparing them, David gave the Mets about five more victories with his bat in 07-08 than in 09-10. That is a significant difference. But what accounts for this precipitous dropoff? Loss of power and strikeouts are the main culprits at first glance, but it can never hurt to take a closer look and see a) if those are the real causes of David’s decline and b) if they are the causes, then what’s causing them? There’s a lot to look at, so I split this article into two pieces. In the first part, I will look at David’s batted ball profile and plate discipline to lay out the groundwork to find where the change in production comes from. In the next part, I will dig a little deeper, look at the pitches he faced, and hopefully find more answers, or at least make some good guesses.
Let’s first take a look at some of David’s batted ball numbers:
| LD% | GB% | FB% | HR/FB% | BABIP | |
| 2007 | 23.2 | 39.3 | 37.5 | 16.1 | 0.356 |
| 2008 | 25.6 | 36.2 | 38.2 | 16.7 | 0.321 |
| 2009 | 25.7 | 38.4 | 35.9 | 6.9 | 0.394 |
| 2010 | 18.9 | 38.4 | 42.7 | 15.5 | 0.335 |
We should first marvel at David’s supreme line-driving abilities from 2007-2009. David finished eigth, third, and then second in LD% in the majors those seasons. His Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) should consistently be among the league leaders with a batted ball profile like this, as it is. There are two numbers I want to focus on, though, and one should be more surprising than the other.
The first number is the 6.9 HR/FB% in 2009 (league-average is just above 10%). Everybody noticed David’s decreased power in 2009, and here is the culprit. He hit a similar amount of fly balls, they just did not leave the park. But what is the culprit of the culprit, you ask? It turns out that all the mumbling and grumbling about Citi Field has shown up in the stats. According to Greg Rybarczyk of Hittrackeronline (a fantastic website for all the home run data you could want), David lost nine home runs in 2009 to Citi Field that would have cleared the Shea fences. If he gets those nine home runs, his HR/FB% skyrockets to the much more expected mark of 13.2%. David was not very different in 2009 when he hit the ball than he was in 2007-08, and it does not seem as though David has suffered a legitimate lack of power. While his production decreased due to the 6.9% HR/FB, I do not think that was an indication of his true talent.
The number that did surprise and worry me was his LD% of 18.9 in 2010. Why did David all of a sudden stop pounding the ball with such authority, as he suffered a major drop-off in line-drive percentage from his previous seasons? I had not picked up on this trend watching the games. Whatever the reason, losing line drives is not good. Many of his lost line drives turned into fly balls—which are much easier to turn into outs—as noted by his increased FB%. While his BABIP was not that far below his career .343 mark, it was still lower than normal, and a lower LD% means less success when you put the ball in play. A decrease in average, which we saw in 2010, had to be expected. David again showed good power with a 15.5 HR/FB%, but he needs to hit the ball on a rope consistently to be as effective as possible. For the first time, David’s batted ball profile showed real changes that should concern us.
I next took a look at his plate discipline numbers, and some answers and questions emerged:
| O-Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Zone% | F-Strike% | SwStr% | |
| 2007 | 21.7 | 66.2 | 88.8 | 48.4 | 53.7 | 7.1 |
| 2008 | 21.9 | 64.8 | 89.5 | 48.9 | 53.5 | 7.1 |
| 2009 | 21.5 | 61 | 87 | 48.9 | 52.9 | 8.4 |
| 2010 | 30.1 | 61.9 | 84.4 | 45.3 | 61.2 | 10.4 |
(O-Swing% - percentage of pitches swung at outside the strike zone; O-Contact% – contact percentage on pitches swung at outside the zone; Z-Contact% – contact percentage on pitces swung at in the zone; Zone% – percentage of pitches seen inside the zone; F-Strike% – first-pitch strike percentage; SwStr% – percentage of swinging strikes out of total pitches seen)
According to his contact percentages, David hit less of the pitches he swung in 2009 than in 07-08. It makes sense that his SwStr% rose in 2009. In 2010, David saw more pitches outside the strike zone and swung at more of them according to his Zone % and O-Swing %. That 30.1 O-Swing% in 2010 is simply a massive jump, and the overall increase in O-Swing% throughout the league does not account for it. Along with his decreased contact rate from the year before, it makes sense that his SwStr% rose even higher in 2010. And then look at that massive leap in F-Strike%. David’s strike outs increased so much because he was falling behind in the count, swinging at more bad pitches, and missing more of them. I love when the numbers make sense.
It seems that David was simply too aggressive. Swinging-strike rate is the best predictor of strike outs, and when you swing at a lot of bad pitches, you will have a high swinging-strike rate (and falling behind in the count doesn’t help). I also wonder if his decreased LD% could be explained by his swinging at more bad pitches, which likely can’t be hit as hard. Either way, an increasing strikeout total, decreasing walk total, and less hard-hit balls are not a good combination.
In the next part, we will try to understand what might have caused this change,what has led to David’s loss of line-drive power and worsened plate discipline. Has his talent decreased? Have pitchers found a hole in his swing? Has David gone blind in one eye? Now that we know fairly precisely where David’s problems lie, mostly in those plate discipline numbers, we can start investigating their causes further.
19 comments
GravediggerHebner
11/17/2010-1:52pm at 1:52 pm (UTC -4)
Excellent stuff. As you note that 2010 O-Swing% is, well, striking. I look forward to the dramatic conclusion.
stickguy
11/17/2010-2:06pm at 2:06 pm (UTC -4)
All these numbers are just mumbo jumbo and snake oil. He did not get Murphy in from 3rd base, so he is a failure.
I read it on the internet!
TRS86
11/17/2010-2:13pm at 2:13 pm (UTC -4)
NICE!!!
Part one of the new phase is running full speed. Be ready for part 2 soon.
Ceetar
11/17/2010-2:14pm at 2:14 pm (UTC -4)
how about coaching? While a lot of what David does he does on his own, he does listen to hojo a lot, by his own admissions. The approach at the plate matters a lot, and as you said, if he’s being too aggressive early and taking early strikes, he’s more apt to strike out and fish.
So why is he A. swinging (can we break this down and see what his swing perentages were on first/second pitches?) at the ball more early for strikes and B. why is he missing them? Poor advance scouting giving the Mets bad info about what a guy is going to do early in the count? That does seem to jive with what I remember from the season. Less aggressive consecutive AB where they jump all over a guy and just own him.
stickguy
11/17/2010-2:17pm at 2:17 pm (UTC -4)
I said a few times last year that Hojo turned Wright into a Hojo clone. And it was not an improvement.
Look, players have egos. I am sure Wright got a ton of ribbing (hurting his macho ego) about hitting so few HRs in 2009. Entirely possible he said screw it, I am hitting more in 2010, not caring about what the true “cost” of that was.
stickguy
11/17/2010-2:15pm at 2:15 pm (UTC -4)
good stuff. This is what sabermetrics is supposed to do, give quantifiable proof to what we know (or think we know).
1 thing though with DW that is somewhat unique is the beaning. I don’t think we will ever really know what impact that had on the changes. We can see results, but have to guess at the “why”.
Still, this seems to be verifying what many people thought last year. That is, he reacted to the decrease in HRs by “selling out” to get more. Bigger uppercut swing, hacking at more balls (not taking walks, leading to a drastic decrease in BBs). Swinging for the fences at the expense of his overall offensive game.
Like I said, unless he comes out and tells us we won’t know for sure “why”, so to me the big question is, in which year was he more valuable as a hitter?
I know HRs are valuable, but are 15 extra HRS “worth” say 25 less doubles (making this up) and a 10% increase in outs made (aka decrease in OBP) (not making that part up).
If we want Dave Kingman, sign him. I preferred the .950ish OPS DW with a .400+ OBP myself. And if that means more line drives shooting up the gap but a few less HRs, then so be it.
njstuckintx
11/17/2010-2:37pm at 2:37 pm (UTC -4)
If Wright hit 15 HRs a year, but hit RF Gap doubles like a champ, I’d be happy with that for sure. I think many times we can focus on the big sexy numbers (a la Ginger) when the bread and butter things will get it done time and again (a la Mary Anne).
Now, for those increases strikeouts, Hello Mrs. Howell!
GravediggerHebner
11/17/2010-2:43pm at 2:43 pm (UTC -4)
I think the metrics article would have been well served by a reference to The Professor. Now it’s got one. Like the Mets it just needs a Skipper.
stickguy
11/17/2010-3:06pm at 3:06 pm (UTC -4)
slick.
Does this make Jerry Gilligan?
njstuckintx
11/17/2010-3:11pm at 3:11 pm (UTC -4)
I think that’s reserved for Ollie!
njstuckintx
11/17/2010-3:22pm at 3:22 pm (UTC -4)
speaking of ollie, nothing like a nice little shot by this author.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/11/16/its-unanimous-roy-halladay-wins-the-nl-cy-young-award/
Ceetar
11/17/2010-3:28pm at 3:28 pm (UTC -4)
He also talks about the ‘intangibles’ of winning. endorsing c.c. over felix.
oleosmirf
11/17/2010-3:27pm at 3:27 pm (UTC -4)
that said besides maybe Longoria, I dont think there is a 3B in baseball i’d rather have.
BillPetti
11/17/2010-4:50pm at 4:50 pm (UTC -4)
Very interesting analysis on Wright. A few comments:
Wright used to be a lights out first pitch hitter. Here are his splits from 2007-08 on first pitches:
2007 .473/.468/.757 (77 Plate Appearances)
2008 .425/.427/.588 (82 Plate Appearances)
Compare this to 2009-10:
2009 .393/.381/.541 (63 Plate Appearances)
2010 .342/.388/.539 (77 Plate Appearances)
That’s about 11 fewer hits in 2009 and 2010 on first pitches (roughly 18 percentage points for the season).
Also, his total bases on first pitches has dropped steadily from 2007 to 2010, also helping drive his SLG lower:
2007: 56
2008: 47
2009: 33
2010: 41
It could indicate that pitchers learned their lesson from 2007 and have gotten much more careful with him on 0-0 counts. His OPS after an 0-1 count dropped from 2007-2009 (.866, .784, .626 respectively), so you’ve likely got pitchers being more careful on 0-0, getting him into an 0-1 hole where he’s become progressively less dangerous (although he rebounded a bit in 2010 – .751 OPS after 0-1 count).
However, the biggest culprit his is decreasing ability to hit fastballs. His runs above average on fastballs has plummeted from 41 in 2007 to 18.1 in 2010 (up from 10.2 in 2009).
Do you know what his splits look like for first pitch fastballs from 2007-2010? I wonder if pitchers have gotten him to chase fastballs out of the zone on 0-0 and this is the real driver.
Prismo
11/17/2010-4:52pm at 4:52 pm (UTC -4)
Welcome to Real Dirty!
reyordonezrevival
11/17/2010-7:05pm at 7:05 pm (UTC -4)
In the next part, I spend a lot of time on pitch types and counts, so we’ll get into a lot of this stuff.
BillPetti
11/17/2010-7:44pm at 7:44 pm (UTC -4)
@Prismo: Thanks!
@reyordonezrevival: Excellent, looking forward to it. I think there’s likely a lot that can be explained by looking at those numbers.
stickguy
11/17/2010-7:52pm at 7:52 pm (UTC -4)
I can summarize the problem for you, and without part II.
Don’t flail at sliders in the dirt.
metsfan4decades
11/17/2010-8:49pm at 8:49 pm (UTC -4)
Or two feet wide of the plate.