As Casey Stengel famously uttered after the 1962 expansion draft, “you have to have a catcher because if you don’t you’re likely to have a lot of passed balls.” Thus, Sandy Alderson aptly noted this week, the Mets as currently constituted are awfully thin at catcher. Josh Thole goes into the offseason as the only catcher under contract for next season. So, what should the Mets do?
The first question, it seems to me, is what can Mets fans expect out of Thole? On the surface, Thole would seem to be an ideal “Moneyball” catcher. He shows great patience, with a 10.5% walk rate in the bigs last year, resulting in a .277/.357/.366 triple-slash line and a respectable .275 TAv. But there is a pretty big question. Namely, what happens if pitchers decide to simply throw Thole strikes, knowing he lacks power, thereby limiting his ability to get on base via walks?
To illustrate how little power Thole has, allow me to add another statistic to our toolbox: Isolated Power or “ISO.” ISO is similar in some ways to slugging percentage, as it measures a hitter’s power using extra base hits. Unlike slugging percentage, however, it does so on a per at bat basis. The formula for ISO is fairly simple: ISO=(doubles + (2 * triples) + (3*HR))/AB. Its biggest flaw in my mind is weighting triples more than doubles, (which are more a function of speed than power) but so be it. Anything above .150 is pretty good. Jose Bautista led the bigs with an amazing .357 ISO in 2010. In any event, Thole’s ISO in 2010 was .089 at the big league level; although it was .164 at Triple-A. Thole’s ISO was “good” for 30th among catchers last year. Needless to say, that’s not a lot of power. It’s hard to be good with that low of an ISO, particularly if you can’t steal bases. In fact, of the 60 players (min 200 PA’s) who had ISO’s lower than Thole, only Ichiro and Jamey Carroll had TAv’s above .280. And nearly everyone on the list of low ISO’s is either a speedster and/or a great defensive player (or is Luis Castillo). Thole, of course, is neither.
The above said, good catching is really hard to find. Last year, NL catchers combined for a .253/.326/.388 line. The Free Agent pool isn’t filled with stars, and to my knowledge, no elite catchers are available for trade.
So, what should the Mets do? Well, here’s some good news. Josh Thole does seem to have some more power against righties. In Triple-A last year, his ISO against righties was a more robust .155, and for the Mets it was .103.
The best answer, then, is to find a right-handed catcher who a) hits lefties well, b) is a decent or better defender, and c) has some pop (to balance Thole somewhat). Here are stats from 6 free agent catchers (not including Victor Martinez, whom I assume the Mets can’t sign), names disguised for a moment, and one catcher who has been mentioned as a non-tender candidate:
| Player | Career vs. lefties | 2010 ISO | 2010 CS% |
| Free Agent A | .229/.283/.413 | .208 | 15% |
| Free Agent B | .279/.359/.471 | .241 | 21% |
| Free Agent C | .262/.325/.398 | .096 | 34% |
| Free Agent D | .193/.275/.267 | .097 | 28% |
| Free Agent E | .263/.338/.427 | .108 | 37% |
| Free Agent F | .284/.318/.503 | .180 | 42% |
| Non-Tender A | .294/.405/.444 | .085 | 39% |
Let me add two more pieces of relevant information: Free Agent B has two world series rings and Non-Tender A, in spite of his career numbers against lefties, had a .235/.353/.329 line in 2010. By now, you’ve probably figured out that Free Agent B is Jason Varitek. Non-Tender A is Russell Martin. The rest of the names are: Rod Barajas (A), Gerald Laird (C), Matt Treanor (D), and Miguel Olivo (F).
Based on the above list, it should be no surprise that I would narrow it down to Varitek and Olivo. Now, to help us decide, two more stats. Varitek’s ISO against lefties last year was an amazing .370. Olivo’s numbers at home last year (Coors Field) .318/.349/.556; on the road, a meager .211/.276/.322. Citi Field is not Coors Field, even post-humidor, and therefore it isn’t realistic to expect Olivo to put up good numbers as a Met.
So, I would recommend Varitek. If his playing time is limited, and focused primarily on lefties, as it would be in a platoon with Thole, he can still be highly valuable. There is also the intangible factor (yes I know, I’m supposed to be Saber guy, but if intangibles matter anywhere, it’s at catcher), “Tek” has a well-deserved rep as a great handler of pitchers, and, of course, is a winner. And if Tek decides to re-up with Boston? Then I suggest a Rod Barajas redux. He has pop, was good in the clubhouse, has shown he can hit for power at Citi Field, and when healthy, was effective last year.
Let me address one criticism that I know will pop up in the comments: that Thole needs to play “every day” to develop. That’s wrong for a few reasons. First, Thole is a catcher and catchers just don’t play every day; and in fact per a baseball prospectus study do far better with more rest. Second, Thole is a very advanced hitter, it seems unlikely he’s really going to get significantly “better” against lefties. Third, Thole’s upside, because of his lack of power and speed and mediocre defense, means it’s unlikely he’s ever going to produce numbers that really warrant being a starter on a championship-caliber club.
Finally, let me suggest a dark horse from the ranks of minor league free agents. Also from the Red Sox organization, Dusty Ryan. Ryan only hit .199/.333/.349 at AAA last year, but those numbers are deceiving. He hit .296/.412/.500 post all-star break with a .204 ISO and in 2009 at AAA he hit .257/.359/.455 with a .198 ISO. It may be possible to sign both Varitek and Ryan, and if so, given Varitek’s somewhat advanced age, would be worthwhile.
Should the Mets follow this course, they would likely be left with a low-cost catcher tandem capable of above average production.
29 comments
Ceetar
11/21/2010-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
I disagree with that players don’t “grow”. I think Thole will develop a little more power as he settles in, and I don’t believe limiting his AB against lefties is a good idea. baseball is a lot of repetition, and limiting Thole’s ABs against lefties will only stunt that repetition in him. It’s unreasonable to expect Varitek, or whoever, to get every AB against a lefty. Plus, if you use him as PH regularly late in games, you have to stick with him, and likely a righty comes up the next turn around, if the Mets are rallying.
A lot depends on where Thole bats as well. Which is not something to worry about right now, but if the bottom of the lineup could be very lefty-heavy. You might favor Thole second, but if that’s the case I doubt bringing in a lefty to get a light hitting catcher would be the strategy with Wright, Bay and Beltran looming.
I prefer youth, and not in a platoon role. There isn’t a lot out there though. Varitek is getting up there, and doesn’t control the running game. Thole will likely slump at one point, and you’d like to have the option of playing a backup more regularly while Thole fights through it.
stickguy
11/21/2010-11:33am at 11:33 am (UTC -4)
Thole has power. He crushed a couple of HRs last year. He just shooses to have a style where he is not swinging for the fences.
I am sure he could stop choking up and looking to take a walk or a pitch the other way for a hit, and start hacking like Wright. That should lead to more HRs, and of course a lower OBP and more Ks.
If he can keep an OBP ~.360, and hit a reasonable amount of doubles and drive in the runs available to him, he will be wonderful, even if he only hits in the single digits in HRs.
fongy2
11/21/2010-11:35am at 11:35 am (UTC -4)
Why the hell would anyone want Victor Martinez???
He’s not a Catcher anymore. Frankly wasn’t a very good one
3,4 yrs ago. Ask the Redsox Pitchers how much they miss an in his
prime Varitek. And I agree with Ceetar, it’s absurd to think that Thole won’t con’t to improve in all aspects of his game. The kid already looks like he’s got a pretty good idea both at and behind the plate AND appears to be a pretty decent prospect. Power?…How many Catchers
in MLB history could really be described as “power hitters”.
C’mon, Catching is pretty fat down on the list of worries for THIS Met fan. We need a solid Righty hitting Veteran Defensive Catcher to
help out Thole with 200/250ABs this season. Also, I’d assume Melvin
would be very helpful mentoring a young Catcher given his background.
kingman 26
11/21/2010-1:34pm at 1:34 pm (UTC -4)
You are wise.
If available, Russell Martin would be ideal, if not too pricey.
stickguy
11/21/2010-11:41am at 11:41 am (UTC -4)
actually, based on your numbers, Thole had a higher iso vs. lefties last year in AAA. You said it was .164 overall and .155 vs. RHP, so therefore it must have been above .164 vs. lefties.
and he made roughly 10% fewer outs than the average catcher (.326 OBP vs. .357)
Veritek? an expensive old guy. But, your Buck find could be OK. I do think they need a BU catcher that can play somewhat regualrly a times, more than Blanco could.
I am just a lot more worried about the power outage from our middle of the order LF, than I am for a young catcher that hits as well as Thole, and either in the 2 hole or 8 hole.
Oh yeah, he is not slappy, so the pitchers throwing it down the middle to take away walks is a bogus arguement. If they want to throw THole nothing but fat ones down the pipe, it will probably be like BP with balls shooting up the box for singles.
metsfan4decades
11/21/2010-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
My heartache with Veritek is his age. So if/when he hits the DL, who is next up in the minors? Need to consider this b/c I think if we bring on an ‘expensive, old guy’, as Stick puts it, it might turn out to be too expensive.
oleosmirf
11/21/2010-12:13pm at 12:13 pm (UTC -4)
he’s not going to be expensive. He signed a 1 year 3 mil contract last season and Varitek is now 1 year older and missed the majority of last season with an injury.
obviously Varitek will get hurt at some point but thats why it will need to complimented by someone like Josh Bard, Matt Treanor or Gerald Laird on a minor league contract
oleosmirf
11/21/2010-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
obviously Russell Martin is the best option once he gets non-tendered but we also wont be able to afford him. I would 100% support signing Jason Varitek as long as its no more than 1 year 1.5-2 mil guaranteed. He is a good guy in the clubhouse too but no need to pay extra for that…
kingman 26
11/21/2010-1:33pm at 1:33 pm (UTC -4)
Varitek?
A catcher who will be 39, who played 39 games last year, who has been precipitously declining for years?
For a team who has seen every big-name free agent they have signed for years spend forever on the DL? (Pedro, Beltran, Alou, El Duque, Delgado, Wagner, KRod, Bay)–just about all of whom were younger than Varitek?
Wow, I like the stat-based arguments, but calling for Varitek sure devalues your them tremendously. Terrible idea.
Let Thole develop by “playing every day”–of course catchers don’t play 162 games; using that phrase for a catcher simply means letting him start and play 5-6 days a week.
No chance in the world the Mets sign Varitek, and no chance they should.
2011 is for letting the young kids play and seeing how good they are. Thole is at the front of those kids.
Olivo seems to be the same player as Barajas offensively.
Martin clearly would be the choice here, based on age, OBP, and batting RH.
If available, not too pricey and if willing to possibly play just 2-3 times a week, Russell Martin would be ideal.
oleosmirf
11/21/2010-1:44pm at 1:44 pm (UTC -4)
Varitek starting twice a week and making only 1 mil is not much of a risk. lets say he does go out for the year in june, backup catcher really isnt that important.
metsfan2011
11/21/2010-1:49pm at 1:49 pm (UTC -4)
Martin stinks. And what does the fact that other players the Mets have signed ended up on the DL have to do with Varitek who is extremely durable? I’m also unsure why calling for the player who the stats suggest would be the best fit somehow “devalues” using stats for an argument?
kingman 26
11/21/2010-1:58pm at 1:58 pm (UTC -4)
Varitek played 39 games last year and will be 39 in April.
You don’t consider this an injury risk? Have you checked his OBP and BA his last couple of full seasons?
You don’t think a team who has suffered all of the above-named injuries by signing older players might think twice about Varitek?
Martin “stinks?” Well that is debatable, and he stunk last year, but he is nine years younger than Varitek, and surely has more potential to rebound.
Calling for this particular team to sign a catcher who is 39 and has been awful offensively for several years is pretty questionable to me.
Catcher is a tough position to be sure, but Varitek surely is not the answer for this team.
oleosmirf
11/21/2010-2:40pm at 2:40 pm (UTC -4)
you make it seem like the Mets are looking for a full time starter. Sure Varitek only played in 39 games last season until he got injured but Varitek was playing pretty much everyday.
Varitek would only need to play in 50-60 games and play twice a week all while getting paid a little bit more than Henry Blanco did.
kingman 26
11/21/2010-2:12pm at 2:12 pm (UTC -4)
And the stats–other than ones used for a 39-game season last year–suggest that this is an old catcher with a great chance to be hurt, who is four years removed from being very productive.
njstuckintx
11/21/2010-1:52pm at 1:52 pm (UTC -4)
King, why is there no chance that they sign him? Now, I’ll preface this with the statement that I am not for, nor against, Varitek. I really don’t have an opinion on him. Assuming Thole is going to take an “everyday” type role, you’ll want to have a mentor. I would think either Blanco or Varitek would fit that role perfectly. And, honestly, even given his injury history, I think that would last longer, if needed, than Blanco could. Maybe Blanco would be best, based on being cheaper? But then again, Varitek has more pop in his bat.
I dunno. I’m not sure who would be best, but I want Thole to be the everyday guy, for sure.
kingman 26
11/21/2010-2:01pm at 2:01 pm (UTC -4)
In my opinion, I pray that the days of this team bringing in great players LONG past their primes is over.
Varitek has 60-day DL written all over him in big, bold letters.
metsfan2011
11/21/2010-2:25pm at 2:25 pm (UTC -4)
Varitek has always good numbers and power against lefties–not just in a small sample last year. His ISO was .240 last year against lefties; in ’08 the ISO was .200 with a .284/.378/.484 line. Unlike the guys who were brought in like Alou and Pedro, the Mets wouldn’t be asking Varitek to be a savior; just a guy to hit lefties and be a mentor to Thole.
metsfan2011
11/21/2010-2:25pm at 2:25 pm (UTC -4)
In 09 his ISO was 240 I should say.
kingman 26
11/21/2010-2:32pm at 2:32 pm (UTC -4)
I fully understand, I have enjoyed your pieces, and I sincerely think you bring a LOT to this site.
I guess, to me, all I am respectfully suggesting is that Varitek’s age and recent injury history might be much more important for this team than his ISO.
We surely need an experienced catcher as backup/mentor and insurance in case Thole regresses.
But I do think Thole’s overall MLB and minor league numbers suggest a guy who could be like a decent to good starter.
Maybe I am being overly optimistic, but I am trying to envision Thole being maybe like a Kendall, but surely with less HR power and less speed—a guy who could maybe hit .280–.300 with an OBP of hopefully above .375 with a lot of walks and doubles.
I am suggesting Martin due to his age, and if he plays just 2-3 days a week, maybe he and Thole together could give the team decent production at catcher, especially if they are (hopefully) hitting 7th. Lots of walks in that spot. And surely Martin would be motivated to get his career back on track, especially in a 1-year deal.
oleosmirf
11/21/2010-2:41pm at 2:41 pm (UTC -4)
he would be the BACKUP catcher. who cares if he is past his prime, as long as he is still better than the other options at that price????
kingman 26
11/21/2010-2:52pm at 2:52 pm (UTC -4)
Well, I care.
I don’t think he is the best option, and I prefer they look elsewhere.
oleosmirf
11/21/2010-2:55pm at 2:55 pm (UTC -4)
your speaking simply out of principle though. what FA will give you more production at a price of less than 2 mil????
kingman 26
11/21/2010-3:34pm at 3:34 pm (UTC -4)
I would prefer Martin, Olivo, Barajas, or even Blanco.
More production for sure? Not necessarily; certainly not in Blanco’s case.
I am just not into Varitek. Too old, was just hurt, and I doubt he comes as cheaply as the others.
Who catches if Thole sucks (which I doubt) and Varitek is hurt?
Prismo
11/21/2010-3:44pm at 3:44 pm (UTC -4)
The average OPS for catchers in 2010 with at least 100 plate appearances (no weighting, just the average) was .689. Thole’s was .723.
He doesn’t have to do much to at least be an average catcher on offense, which would let him keep the starting job, I’d think. So, I agree with you Kingman.
Would rather get a smart and healthy backup to mentor Thole, stay off the DL, and not mind only playing once a week.
kingman 26
11/21/2010-3:46pm at 3:46 pm (UTC -4)
Bingo!
As I often say, you are a smart kid.
Ceetar
11/21/2010-3:52pm at 3:52 pm (UTC -4)
and that’s probalby the plan, but Alderson sounds like he doesn’t want to just assume Thole will stick. precautions. Also, Thole’s likely to have some growing pains, and you’d like a guy you could play a little more often during slumps.
stickguy
11/21/2010-4:00pm at 4:00 pm (UTC -4)
plans are great. But I really like the idea of having an actually viable back up plan too (for a change!)
metsfan2011
11/21/2010-4:58pm at 4:58 pm (UTC -4)
part of the issue with Thole–who I do like–is whether he can continue his performance given that so much of his value is tied up in his ability to get on base; and pitchers may start throwing him only strikes, knowing he’s unlikely to do more than hit a single with it. There aren’t a lot of players in the bigs who succeed with his particular skill set.
stickguy
11/21/2010-5:26pm at 5:26 pm (UTC -4)
he should hit pelnty of doubles too. If they want to keep pumping it right down the pipe, the guy might hit .350.