Maybe I’m reading too much into this, but when asked on Tuesday whether any Mets were “untouchable” Sandy Alderson listed David Wright, Ike Davis and Jason Bay (more untradeable than anything else). Notice anyone missing? A certain shortstop/professor/dancer maybe?
None of us are Sandy-ologists quite yet, but he doesn’t strike me as the type of guy who “forgets” about his all-star shortstop. So, might Sandy actually be considering trading Jose Reyes?
I think the answer is clearly yes. The interesting questions, then, are 1) why; 2) to whom and 3) what do we get in return? Today, I’ll look at why, and in a future post I’ll tackle the other issues.
Why is tough. Let me start by saying I love Jose Reyes. I don’t care that he dances. I think he plays hard and I think he cares about winning. But, that being said, he’s never been a consistently great player. And, more importantly, the odds aren’t great that he’s going to be better, and in fact, the odds suggest that he’s going to get worse.
To illustrate, below are some of Jose’s stats from 2006-10:
| Age | Games | Runs | Triples | HR | BB | SB | OBP | SLG | TAv | ISO | BABIP |
| 23 | 153 | 122 | 17 | 19 | 53 | 64 | .354 | .487 | .291 | .187 | .320 |
| 24 | 160 | 119 | 12 | 12 | 77 | 78 | .358 | .421 | .283 | .141 | .302 |
| 25 | 159 | 113 | 19 | 16 | 66 | 56 | .358 | .475 | .295 | .179 | .317 |
| 26 | 36 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 11 | .355 | .395 | .283 | .116 | .307 |
| 27 | 133 | 83 | 10 | 11 | 31 | 30 | .321 | .428 | .276 | .146 | .301 |
Notice anything? Jose’s not getting any better, and his BABIP suggests it isn’t bad luck. Now, I know he’s been injured a lot the last two years. But, still. When he was healthy, he wasn’t getting any better, and in fact regressed a little, in particular with regard to his plate discipline. The sad thing is, it didn’t necessarily have to be this way. Let me show you the percentage of Jose’s walks as a percentage of his overall plate appearances month-by-month for 2007 and 2008 (this is a good way to measure pure plate discipline because OBP can be impacted by fluctuations in batting average):
| Mar/Apr ‘07 | May ‘07 | June ‘07 | July ‘07 | Aug ‘07 | Sept. /Oct.‘07 | Mar./Apr. ‘08 | May ‘08 | June ‘08 | July ‘08 | Aug ‘08 | Sept/Oct ‘08 | |
| BB % | 13.3% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 8.4% |
Jose never matched his plate discipline numbers from the first half of 2007. What happened in July 2007? The Mets fired hitting coach Rick Down (for reasons I am still waiting for Mike and the Mad Dog to tell us about). True, this is only correlation and not causation, but I don’t think it’s coincidental. It’s been widely reported that Down and Reyes had a good relationship, and clearly Jose hasn’t been quite the same player (or at least isn’t any better) since Down left.
Perhaps a new hitting coach can get through to Jose. But even if one could, there’s another problem. Players who rely on their legs as much as Reyes does tend to decline rapidly as they get older. A recent study by economist J.C. Bradbury, available on baseball prospectus, found that players whose predominant trait is speed (think Reyes) tend to reach their peak performance at age 28, or Jose’s age at the start of next season. Nate Silver also found in an earlier study that speed is the skill that goes the fastest.
And if Jose loses some speed, he’s going to lose value. To show one simple way of how a loss of speed could hurt Jose, let’s cut his infield hits and bunt hits in 2007 and 2008 by half and recalculate his batting average and OBP accordingly:
| Bunt hits (before/after) | Infield hits (before/after) | Old/New BA | Old/New OBP | |
| 2007 | 11/6 | 20/10 | .280/.258 | .354/.335 |
| 2008 | 10/5 | 20/10 | .297/.274 | .358/.339 |
In short, even a marginal reduction in Jose’s speed—resulting in the loss of about 15 hits a year—causes a major reduction in his value. And we haven’t even taken into account the loss in value caused by a drop in steals, or doubles that used to be triples. If you think this story sounds familiar, that’s because Mets fans have seen what happens when a speed player (albeit one with less power than Jose), loses his speed. It’s the Luis Castillo story and it doesn’t have a happy ending.
If you’re a Jose fan, you’re probably saying right now: this is all because of injuries. When Jose is healthy again, he will produce. Just look at June of last year for proof of what Jose can do when he’s healthy. But that’s part of the problem. Players like Jose tend to get injured, a lot. Think about a stolen base, it has to be the baseball activity with the greatest risk of injury. Simply, stealing bases is dangerous.
Of course, if I’ve convinced you that Jose isn’t a great risk going forward, that doesn’t mean the Mets should trade him. Possible reasons not to trade him would be: he’s better than anyone else we could get or he’s a lot better than what we could get for him in a trade/his money can’t be spent better in other ways.
Next time, I’ll test these propositions. Namely, what could the Mets do at shortstop if they traded Jose, who would they trade him to, and finally, what could they get in return? To whet your appetites going forward, right now, I see Jose taking his talents to Boston. But, if you have some ideas of other potential trade partners, please post them in the comments. I’ll try and incorporate the best ones into my next post.
129 comments
kingman 26
11/24/2010-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
Excellent analysis.
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
MLBTR mentioned SF.
Maybe the Dodgers?
The Orioles could be a match as well.
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-11:49am at 11:49 am (UTC -4)
Who isn’t a match:
Astros – payroll
Tampa – same
NYY – Jeter
FLA – have a SS
Rockies – have a ss
Cubs – have a ss
Whitesox – have a ss
Dbacks – if they move s. Drew
Cards – Payroll
Cleveland/Pittsburg – could use him, teams suck, shambles, yadda yadda
Texas – Have a SS
Milwaukee – don’t see it as a match, payroll.
Atl – have a SS
Phillie – payroll and J.Roll.
Tigers – Maybe? Maybe not? High payroll, never stopped them before?
Ceetar
11/24/2010-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
Rollins might move along (or be moved along), and the Yanks have to move Jeter if he’s there at some point. Also, Red Sox.
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-12:16pm at 12:16 pm (UTC -4)
Can you imagine the first time Reyes does a little dance in Yankee stadium and the Ghost of Steinbrenner comes back to kill him?
metsfan4decades
11/24/2010-12:20pm at 12:20 pm (UTC -4)
I can only hope that this decade doesn’t see the return of previous decades where once favorite Met players go on to play for the Yankees.
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-1:03pm at 1:03 pm (UTC -4)
You have no idea how much that irked the crap out of me when Doc threw a no-no with yanks.
Ceetar
11/24/2010-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
well, the Castillo comparison is apt, but think about this. Castillo led the lead in infield hits even his early thirties. so why can’t Reyes? dropping those numbers by 50% is extreme exaggeration.
As you point out, 28 is the ‘peak’ year. Next season. while he could exhibit a drop off, it’s not going to be an extreme one right away. 29 and 30 are probably going to be good years, and certain better than what we can even reasonably hope to replace him with.
I don’t believe Reyes only game is speed. he did hit 11 home runs last year, and he does have a strong swing. While the speed helps, I don’t think he’s going to suddenly become worthless. He’s actually a fairly big and strong guy (being a professional athele and all) Can he walk more? Obviously, that’s probably the biggest thing we’re talking about. His OPS last season without walks was .749. If he can improve his batting eye, hopefully the new coach helps, at the rate he loses those infield hits? he’d slow down the rate of regression.
This is why they should sign him. The best years are likely the next 2-3. Which also means the best return is at that point (if you’re of the trading ilk).
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
it makes no sense to sign (or trade) Reyes now. If he returns to his old ways than give him 3-4 year extension, if not offer him arbitration and let him walk or only give him 2 years max…
kingman 26
11/24/2010-12:00pm at 12:00 pm (UTC -4)
If he would take the time to work on bunting for hits, that could hugely improve his game.
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-12:11pm at 12:11 pm (UTC -4)
ironic that with Jerry “Bunts alot” Manuel, he never perfected that.
kingman 26
11/24/2010-12:25pm at 12:25 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, but did Sir-Bunts-A-Lot even know you could use the bunt for a hit, without necessarily giving up an out??
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-1:01pm at 1:01 pm (UTC -4)
True. Above statement altered to say “Jerry Sacs-a-lot”. That felt a little dirty writing that, I’ll admit.
metsfan4decades
11/24/2010-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
Very nice analysis. I don’t mean this snarky but I didn’t need the analysis to know this – my eyes alone have been telling me this.
That being said, I still think Reyes has more value than just speed. However, I know speed and base hit type hitters age worse than power hitters. I just don’t know that I believe Reyes is all about speed.
As to trade partners? I suck at trade propositions. That’s why I come here and read what those of you smarter than I in this area throw out there.
metsfan4decades
11/24/2010-12:19pm at 12:19 pm (UTC -4)
What I didn’t know though was that down turn after Rick D. left. That’s very interesting…
For those of you who regularly joined me in the Dugout last year:
FIRE HOJO !
Oh wait…..
saltygary
11/24/2010-12:57pm at 12:57 pm (UTC -4)
Perfect article for today, thanks. Also makes me feel smart seeing I said on another thread that if he can’t get his speed back he’s not worth it
what I would like to know is say the team has 14m to spend on both of/ss next season. Would it more productive to re-sign reyes or get a strong of and get a 3m ss? Im betting it would be more statistically valuable to get the outfielder.
Ceetar
11/24/2010-12:59pm at 12:59 pm (UTC -4)
the minors are stocked with possible OF replacements.
SS is much less sure, and is a much harder position defensively.
The drop-off from Beltran to average free agent or Duda or Niewkslkjfsdfskj or F-Mart or whoever is probably significantly less than Reyes to XXX/Tejada/Flores?
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-1:20pm at 1:20 pm (UTC -4)
agreed which is why even if Reyes isnt that great, he is still miles ahead of what his replacement would be. I think given the amount of money coming off the books next season as well as his age, as long the contract isnt crazy overpaying a little isnt a necessarily a bad thing.
Ceetar
11/24/2010-1:22pm at 1:22 pm (UTC -4)
I mean, we all agree his season last year was bad, and it was something like the 5th best OPS wise, in the majors.
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-1:32pm at 1:32 pm (UTC -4)
exactly the Mets are going to have more payroll flexibility than they really need next season. Hopefully Beltran will be replaced by either F-Mart or Kirk and Castillo will be replaced by Havens. Mejia or Harvey should hopefully replace the Vicente Padilla type SP we plug in this season.
Granted we do have to give increases to our homegrown guys but after that we’re still at a relatively low budget but after signing that #1a SP (that we cant get this season) i really dont see any other need.
fongy2
11/24/2010-1:37pm at 1:37 pm (UTC -4)
Which MLB SS in or approaching their prime can replace
Reyes??? The Cancerous hanley Ramirez?….Tutlowitski
who no doubt is great BUT how much does Coor field help?
Young Elvis?…Is he even Reyes yet?
I mean where do you go to replace him?
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-1:42pm at 1:42 pm (UTC -4)
TEJADA!!!!
fongy2
11/24/2010-1:45pm at 1:45 pm (UTC -4)
Cute but not funny.
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-1:57pm at 1:57 pm (UTC -4)
It’s quite scary actually.
fongy2
11/24/2010-2:04pm at 2:04 pm (UTC -4)
Indeed!….And I like Tejada!.. I think he’ll end up
a player sort of like one of the Izturis brothers.
Nice middle infielder, can hit a little for average, no
power and no much speed. Can be helpful…BUT
compared to Jose Reyes???
saltygary
11/24/2010-2:38pm at 2:38 pm (UTC -4)
This is why I want to see the data. It’s easy to make these assumptions because Reyes has been in our life and we value him higher and we want to have lifetime players.
I want to keep this argument with just offensive players for the sake of simplicity. Based on what we know over the next 2 years the team will be looking for a CF, RF, 2nd and depending on production possibly a C or 1st. Is it better to throw 14m at Reyes or spread it around differently? With what I see in the article and what I see with my own eyes, I don’t think Reyes is worth it.
saltygary
11/24/2010-2:39pm at 2:39 pm (UTC -4)
2012 SS FA:
Jason Bartlett (32)
Yuniesky Betancourt (30) – $6MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Ronny Cedeno (29)
Rafael Furcal (34) – $12MM club/vesting option
Alex Gonzalez (34)
J.J. Hardy (29)
Omar Infante (30)
John McDonald (37)
Augie Ojeda (37)
Jose Reyes (29)
Jimmy Rollins (33)
Ramon Santiago (32)
Marco Scutaro (36) – $6MM club option/$3MM player option with a $1.5MM buyout
Jack Wilson (34)
saltygary
11/24/2010-2:39pm at 2:39 pm (UTC -4)
CF and RF FA 2012:
Center fielders
Carlos Beltran (35)
Mike Cameron (39)
Coco Crisp (32)
David DeJesus (32)
Scott Hairston (32)
Nate McLouth (30) – $10.65MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout
Cody Ross (31)
Grady Sizemore (29) – $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Right fielders
Bobby Abreu (38) – $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout; vests with 550 PAs in 2011 or 1,100 PA in 2010-11
Jose Bautista (31)
Milton Bradley (34)
Ryan Church (33)
Michael Cuddyer (33)
Jack Cust (33)
David DeJesus (32)
J.D. Drew (36)
Kosuke Fukudome (35)
Jason Kubel (29)
Cody Ross (31)
Nick Swisher (31) – $10.25MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Josh Willingham (33)
saltygary
11/24/2010-2:40pm at 2:40 pm (UTC -4)
1st is way more interesting:
First basemen
Michael Cuddyer (33)
Prince Fielder (28)
Ross Gload (36)
Adrian Gonzalez (30)
Albert Pujols (32)
Nick Swisher (31) – $10.25MM club option with a $1MM buyout
saltygary
11/24/2010-2:42pm at 2:42 pm (UTC -4)
Personally even though I have a beautiful pinstripe jersey of Ike I would shoot him in a trade along with Reyes and get Prince and a treadmill from Mil and sign Bartlett at SS.
fongy2
11/24/2010-1:30pm at 1:30 pm (UTC -4)
So in 2008 when Jose’s Average, OBP, Slugging, Hits,Runs & Extra Base Hits were about the same or higher than in 2005thru2007….
He regressed???….In 2009 he was seriously injured and has worked his way back. THIS during all the turmoil that was The New York Mets
both on and off the field. HE IS 27 YEARS OLD! Was rushed to the majors, has been screwed with time and again since, and HE’S been
the problem???…Or even part of it???…With all due respect to some
even thinking about trading him is just plain stupid.
Now, if some team offers you an under contract control, young SS even
80% of what Reyes is, along with a budding young Ace SP, AND maybe
a solid RP……Well then maybe……MAYBE you return the call…..
But short of anything close to that is absurd and just plain dumb.
How good have we been with him as opposed to how bad we’ve been w/o him?
Ceetar
11/24/2010-1:37pm at 1:37 pm (UTC -4)
I was trying to be more calm and passive, but yeah, that’s basically the sentiment.
As Sandy has said, there is value in the homegrown aspect of players. Obviously things don’t always work out, but the idea here should be that the only place 5 and 7 are going is up on the wall in left field.
Purely from an emotional standpoint, (They’re hired and a different story, but I wouldn’t mind 15 sticking around (obviously stayingh ealthy dammit) and going there either. And i know we all hope 57 resurges and finishes at least his contract on a high enough note that he ends up there as well. )
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-1:45pm at 1:45 pm (UTC -4)
i think its a forgone conclusion that unless the Mets are looking playoff bound, Beltran will be traded and F-Mart, Kirk or Duda will be in RF for the rest of the season.
I do agree though that Reyes + Wright should be a part of the team for years to come…
wannybackstra
11/24/2010-1:48pm at 1:48 pm (UTC -4)
i don’t think it is a foregone conclusion that someone will take Beltran or that he will be healthy enough to be traded.
fongy2
11/24/2010-1:51pm at 1:51 pm (UTC -4)
Or even that he’d agree to it Wanny.
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-2:04pm at 2:04 pm (UTC -4)
well assuming he’s healthy only a playoff team would be willing to trade for him and why would Beltran turn down an opportunity to make the playoffs where he could boost his chances of getting a better contract with a very good stretch and postseason.
saltygary
11/24/2010-2:44pm at 2:44 pm (UTC -4)
That’s exactly how he got Mets money with those 7 HR’s in the playoffs for Houston.
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-1:38pm at 1:38 pm (UTC -4)
I’m in the sign Reyes now, tacking on 3 more years to this one at 16 mil per those years. IE (11, 16, 16, 16, or 11, 15, 16, 17 or something like that). Slap some incentives in there and good to go.
But again, in Sandy we trust.
fongy2
11/24/2010-1:47pm at 1:47 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed!….BUT if Reyes goes and it’s not some insane package coming back which shows itself immediately to be a great package
I’m done with Mr.Alderson and the Wilpons!
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-1:48pm at 1:48 pm (UTC -4)
there is no reason to just throw money at him like that. That type of money given his past 2 seasons is just crazy. No reason why it would cost that much now.
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-1:56pm at 1:56 pm (UTC -4)
Is it though? I think fiscal responsibility is a good thing, but going from Reyes to the next level down… That’s quite a drop in production.
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-2:05pm at 2:05 pm (UTC -4)
what im saying is why blindly throw money at him now when you can get him for that same exact money value if you wait after the season. so many things could go wrong that signing him now makes no sense.
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-2:08pm at 2:08 pm (UTC -4)
I do see what you are saying, but if you wait until the end of the year, you’ll have 2 draft picks and a search for a new SS to deal with. If he hits FA at 28, his speed, range, etc. etc., You’ll see some team open up the vault the size of Scrooge McDucks place. If he can be locked up now, I actually think 3 extra years at 15 or 16 per is going to be more frugal than trying to get him when he hits FA.
fongy2
11/24/2010-2:17pm at 2:17 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed!
wannybackstra
11/24/2010-2:19pm at 2:19 pm (UTC -4)
But what has he done the last two seasons to earn the right to be the second highest paid SS in the major leagues?
Why not at least wait until later in the season?
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-2:23pm at 2:23 pm (UTC -4)
My only counter argument to that would be if I’m Reyes and I’m having a killer year (or even an “average Reyes year”, why would I not test the FA market?
It’s a risk either way. Your method of waiting maybe the best, but then again, as I mentioned above, we’ll see the Mets with 2 draft picks and looking for a SS. And that may also be a prime spot to be in. I personally prefer Reyes to the picks.
Ceetar
11/24/2010-2:28pm at 2:28 pm (UTC -4)
he was the 5th best via OPS last year. he plays in NY on a big budget team and is exciting to watch. Is that not enough to bump him up to ‘second’ as if all players got paid in the order of which they perform anyway?
wannybackstra
11/24/2010-2:30pm at 2:30 pm (UTC -4)
If you told me we were signing the 2008 Reyes, I’d be on board. But we’re signing the one who missed most of a season because of a hamstring problem (not exactly an “out of the blue” injury for him) and put up a sub-par subsequent season.
I’m just too skeptical at this point.
I suspect Sandy is more on the skeptical side than the hopeful side.
But I agree, the downside to my plan is that Jose tells the Mets to screw off after putting up a career season in his walk year and then goes to Boston to win 3 WS.
wannybackstra
11/24/2010-2:34pm at 2:34 pm (UTC -4)
Ceetar:
With 15 errors in 133 games, only 30 SBs — and 10 CS (the worst percentage of his career), his worst BB:K ratio since 2005, and a .320 OBP, he wasn’t all that exciting to watch this season.
If that’s the Reyes we sign to big money, then no he’s not worth it by virtue of the fact that he plays in NY and used to be exciting.
saltygary
11/24/2010-2:47pm at 2:47 pm (UTC -4)
Maybe lacking offensive excitement was the reason he chose to dance so much. He just trying to make sure everyone got their tickets worth.
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-2:31pm at 2:31 pm (UTC -4)
I dont see how Reyes makes anything more than 18 mil a year, even if he goes out and has a career season. Think about it 18 million a season would make him one of the top 10 highest paid players in the game!!!!
is locking him up now worth saving a potential extra 1-2 million a year???? If the Mets want Reyes back, he will be back. i dont see anyway Reyes chooses another team unless the Mets walk away..
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-2:40pm at 2:40 pm (UTC -4)
dealing with millions is a difficult thing. If someone offered me 10K more for the job i currently do, I’d jump ship. Someone offering 15-16 vs. 18+ is something. The Mets will have to match, dollar for dollar, the best offer out there to retain Jose. And when you get in a bidding war (with Boston, or even the Yanks, possibly the Dodgers, who knows) it can be a very dangerous thing. Someone goes loco, offers him 5-6 years. He’s gone. That’s all I’m saying.
The best possible scenario is one you and subsequently Wanny are standing by. We all see how he plays, Sandy likes what he sees and then he signs him, mid-season to an extension, everyone goes home happy, reyes dances a little jig and the crowd rejoices. I’m not a gambling man, but I would think the odds of that happening aren’t stellar.
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-3:00pm at 3:00 pm (UTC -4)
thats a risk im more than happy to take. If Reyes is that good this season i have no problem spending that kind of money. I just wont give him more than 4 years.
metsfan2011
11/24/2010-2:34pm at 2:34 pm (UTC -4)
maybe yes, maybe no. But remember, the goal is to make the team better because right now the team just isn’t that good. Perhaps, if you trade Reyes, you can make the team better by getting multiple pieces in return and spending some of the money saved on others…
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-2:47pm at 2:47 pm (UTC -4)
And you’re point is a valid one. If trading Reyes, Wright, the Ballboy and anyone else provides a net gain, then it can be considered.
I feel (a stat-less response to your stat filled article, which was solid, by the by) that having Reyes on an extension vs. what the return would net you in a trade or what he would cost in the open market pushes me to want an extension. If trading Reyes brought you Bumgarden… With a tear in my eye I’d shake Reyes’ hand as he headed to the airport, SF bound. 8.. – (
saltygary
11/24/2010-2:49pm at 2:49 pm (UTC -4)
Can you please just keep pounding this message! I made some requests for you above to support this, looking for homework?
saltygary
11/24/2010-2:50pm at 2:50 pm (UTC -4)
I say this from time to time when playing fantasy baseball; you people need to look at players like statistical meatbags. Sentiment is overvalued.
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-2:58pm at 2:58 pm (UTC -4)
From a fantasy baseball sense that’s fine, but I don’ yell during a game “Great Hit you statistical meatbag you!”.
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-3:02pm at 3:02 pm (UTC -4)
but trading Reyes for a top pitching prospect and a top OF prospect is not really a net gain. a SS of Reyes level is so rare that another teams version of Mejia, Tejada and Kirk is not enough in my eyes.
saltygary
11/24/2010-3:03pm at 3:03 pm (UTC -4)
Might happen if the team is losing and I’m drinking
metsfan4decades
11/24/2010-1:55pm at 1:55 pm (UTC -4)
You tell ‘em, fongy.
I’m on board with this.
fongy2
11/24/2010-2:01pm at 2:01 pm (UTC -4)
Sorry about gettin’ a little wild
BUT when it comes to a few subjects about our Mets I’m
even more passionate then my already insane self when
it comes the team in general. And Reyes is at the top of
the list. You know…. You can count on one hand the players
we’ve developed in Reyes’ class over the past 40 yrs and
still have enough fingers left to at least salute Yankee fans.
wannybackstra
11/24/2010-2:06pm at 2:06 pm (UTC -4)
I’m with Oleo. There’s no reason to extend him now. There’s a whole season ahead and Jose still has to prove that he’s healthy and can be the dynamic player we knew in 2008.
wannybackstra
11/24/2010-2:11pm at 2:11 pm (UTC -4)
And while the numbers posted by Metsfan2011 don’t necessarily show a regression, they don’t show a progression either. And these are years in which Jose still should have been progressing.
It’s very possible that Jose has already peaked. And while Jose is more than just a guy who can steal bases, his speed is a big part of his game and his various injuries might have taken their toll on that aspect of his game.
The bottom line is that his OBP has held steady at .350 and declined this season for whatever reason. A .350 OBP is not a premier leadoff hitter without his dynamic speed (which leads to SBs, triples and doubles) and Jose’s greatest value is as a leadoff hitter.
fongy2
11/24/2010-2:15pm at 2:15 pm (UTC -4)
A little har to progress when hurt and in the middle of the clusterphuck that was the past couple of yrs…No?
I’m not saying we have to extend him now BUT as soon as
things are sorted out over the next couple months, setting up
the roster for 2011 they’ve got to be at least discussing it.
wannybackstra
11/24/2010-2:20pm at 2:20 pm (UTC -4)
He was stagnant before his two injury seasons. He had his “breakout” season and then put up the same exact two seasons after that.
fongy2
11/24/2010-2:21pm at 2:21 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah BUT pretty damn good numbers.
wannybackstra
11/24/2010-2:27pm at 2:27 pm (UTC -4)
But how good will they be if his baseball acumen remains the same and his legs slow down?
His slugging pctg will suffer if he can’t leg out extra base hits and if he doesn’t steal bases he’s just an average leadoff hitter with a .350 OBP who is being paid like a star.
All I am saying is that he should have to earn a big contract.
Ceetar
11/24/2010-2:34pm at 2:34 pm (UTC -4)
Even Luis Castillo stole an above average amount of bases the last two seasons as prorated to playing time. As you lose a step, you gain in experience and reading pitchers.
Also, so many catchers are just complete crap. I could steal on them.
metsfan2011
11/24/2010-2:35pm at 2:35 pm (UTC -4)
Sure, he stole an average amount of bases. But I don’t want to pay $11 m or more a season for average. Especially if you could get valuable players in return.
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-2:44pm at 2:44 pm (UTC -4)
the one thing you are neglecting is positional scarcity. how many SS have come into this league since 2003 that have been as good or better as Reyes? I can think of 2, Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki (and he has the Colorado boost).
Reyes right now is easily top 5 at his position even during a bad season. What are the chances that we get someone in return that is even top 10 at whatever position they are???
Ceetar
11/24/2010-3:15pm at 3:15 pm (UTC -4)
You’re not getting valuable prospects in return though. It’s extremely unlikely now, and as it becomes more and more a rental, the less likely you are. (and if you are, why are you trading him?) And i’m just saying Reyes won’t be stealing 5 bases in 2014. I’d rather over pay Reyes than have average SS production.
wannybackstra
11/24/2010-3:26pm at 3:26 pm (UTC -4)
like Carlos Santana for a pending free agent stud like Casey Blake?
wannybackstra
11/24/2010-2:36pm at 2:36 pm (UTC -4)
That’s a great theory if only Jose didn’t have his worst SB% of his career this season. And his worst OBP. And his worst BB:K ratio.
Again, the point of all of this is that Reyes has not gained in experience.
fongy2
11/24/2010-2:40pm at 2:40 pm (UTC -4)
Well it might also help to have a real baserunning coach. Razor friggin’Shines??? C’mon.
Too bad Davey lopes went back home to LA
Because having seen about 800 Philly games the past 5
yrs I can tell ya that as much talk as there is about
Hitting and Pitching Coaches, Lopes made a huge difference with baserunners and baserunning.
wannybackstra
11/24/2010-2:45pm at 2:45 pm (UTC -4)
Blaming the 1B coach? C’mon.
fongy2
11/24/2010-2:36pm at 2:36 pm (UTC -4)
Hey alot of things COULD happen. He might become
more of a power 2B/HR guy…Or who knows what?
I agree that theres no rush to sign him RIGHT NOW
however, one ST starts and he looks good, the team
is solid, the new Mgmt has everything under control etc
I’d think (and hope) they’d start talking to his agent about
an extention. Again through he’s 27 y/o and in all likelyhood hasn’t yet reached what should be his prime
yrs both physically and mentally so….I suspect and hope
there is an MVP type season in there on a winning team.
I just don’t want to see him do it for someone else.
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-2:42pm at 2:42 pm (UTC -4)
+1
fongy2
11/24/2010-2:46pm at 2:46 pm (UTC -4)
Ya think if Brett Keisel had punched Tom Brady
or Peyton Manning they get a 25K fine and
no suspension?
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-2:48pm at 2:48 pm (UTC -4)
Suspended up the wazzoo!
wannybackstra
11/24/2010-2:48pm at 2:48 pm (UTC -4)
There’s a lot more evidence that injuries are a problem and that Reyes has become stagnant in his development than there is that he will suddenly become a power hitter.
Let’s see what he does this season, or at least the first 3/4.
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-2:51pm at 2:51 pm (UTC -4)
even if Reyes never gets any better than he was in 2008, he’s still worth keeping, not at 16 mil a year but at 10-12
wannybackstra
11/24/2010-2:53pm at 2:53 pm (UTC -4)
I’m not saying to shop him (necessarily). I’m, saying to wait before you throw $16m at him. He’s liable to have another 30 game season.
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-2:55pm at 2:55 pm (UTC -4)
oh of course
fongy2
11/24/2010-3:02pm at 3:02 pm (UTC -4)
Don’t do that Wanny. You know better. Not “blaming” the 1B Coach
BUT stating the obvious truth, Reyes has rec’d very little top flight
teaching/help from the time he arrived @19y/o.
And if anyone thinks that Reyes will be 80 or 90% of himself 3/4 into
the season and you’ll be able to keep him @10,11,12mil per…….
Well….theres nothing else for me to say because thats just beyond
foolish, wishful thinking.
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-3:04pm at 3:04 pm (UTC -4)
i will disagree there. He had Rickey Henderson the best leadoff hitter and base stealer ever.
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-3:05pm at 3:05 pm (UTC -4)
Rickey loves him some Rickey. Just ask Rickey.
saltygary
11/24/2010-3:10pm at 3:10 pm (UTC -4)
LOL +1000
saltygary
11/24/2010-3:23pm at 3:23 pm (UTC -4)
Looks like Reyes studied at Rickey’s card games more.
wannybackstra
11/24/2010-3:06pm at 3:06 pm (UTC -4)
No one said that, Fongy.
What we have been saying is that the Reyes of 2007 and 2008 is not worth more than 10-12.
If Reyes returns to his form, he will get his 15-16 from the Mets or someone else.
But why rush into giving him the 15-16 without knowing which Reyes he is? 15-16 for 4-6 years of the 2007-2008 Reyes will be a terrible hindrance to the team.
Anyway, I don’t understand your point about Shines or the coaching staff. If Reyes was able to play like he did from 2006-2008 with lousy coaching, how is lousy coaching to blame for him no longer playing like that?
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-3:24pm at 3:24 pm (UTC -4)
actually I disagree there. I believe that the old Reyes needs to be retained at any cost but until i see it come back I wont pay a premium to hope it does. I still believe though that if Reyes is healthy the old Reyes will return and will be worth keeping even if we have to pay him 16 mil for 5 years.
wannybackstra
11/24/2010-3:27pm at 3:27 pm (UTC -4)
so what do you disagree with?
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-3:41pm at 3:41 pm (UTC -4)
I believe Reyes of 07 and 08 is worth more than 10-12 mil if thats what it costs to bring him back.
wannybackstra
11/24/2010-3:44pm at 3:44 pm (UTC -4)
then if you’re willing to bring him back regardless of the cost, you’re better off doing it now coming off two bad seasons.
i don’t understand your position on this at all now.
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-3:49pm at 3:49 pm (UTC -4)
because we dont know whether Jose will be as good as he was in 07-08. We cant just assume being healthy = same exact production.
wannybackstra
11/24/2010-3:54pm at 3:54 pm (UTC -4)
i see where the confusion is. I meant 2009 and 2010 where i wrote 2007 and 2008.
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-4:10pm at 4:10 pm (UTC -4)
ah well we are in agreement then
saltygary
11/24/2010-3:08pm at 3:08 pm (UTC -4)
Would anyone do a sign and trade Reyes and Ike for Fielder and a treadmill?
wannybackstra
11/24/2010-3:12pm at 3:12 pm (UTC -4)
probably not. Even with a Reyes extension, you can have two positions covered adequately for probably just a little more than Fielder’s contract alone. Davis will be cheap for a while.
saltygary
11/24/2010-3:22pm at 3:22 pm (UTC -4)
I would much rather spend money on a slugger like him and throw a scrub at SS. There are plenty of available SS and someone like Bartlett is available in 2012. I like a Ike a ton but I doubt he is going to be Olerud.
Fielder mashing a couple homers out of of Citi and Reyes would be a fond memory.
wannybackstra
11/24/2010-3:27pm at 3:27 pm (UTC -4)
Not unreasonable.
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-3:48pm at 3:48 pm (UTC -4)
we tried bringing in a slugger last year, didnt work out so well. Only 3 players have ever hit 40+ HR as a Met…
saltygary
11/24/2010-3:52pm at 3:52 pm (UTC -4)
Can’t let history dictate direction.
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-3:54pm at 3:54 pm (UTC -4)
You lost me.
saltygary
11/24/2010-4:22pm at 4:22 pm (UTC -4)
His statement was to not bring in a slugger because they have never worked out in the past. My statement basically means just because Delgado didn’t hit 40 doesn’t mean Fielder couldn’t hit 40 in NY. Not a reason to pass on a player.
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-4:27pm at 4:27 pm (UTC -4)
well why would a team playing in a great pitchers park want to acquire a guy who is a poor defensive player and whose best attribute is negatively affected by coming here.
now if you wanted to trade Reyes for an ace, i could at least understand but one of the last things we need is a 1B
saltygary
11/24/2010-4:36pm at 4:36 pm (UTC -4)
Absolutely valid points about fielder. Just pulling names out of my ars to get a gauge around here.Fielder probably needs to go to the AL so he can eventually DH.
The name I probably should of used was Gonzalez.
I would have a hard time trading Reyes for a Pitcher because after the top tier in they get pretty close to each other in production and I don’t think Reyes can grab an elite arm to make it worth the offensive cost.
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-3:49pm at 3:49 pm (UTC -4)
absolutely not
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-3:57pm at 3:57 pm (UTC -4)
Wanny,
What’s the cliff note version of what you’d like to see happen this offseason?
wannybackstra
11/24/2010-4:07pm at 4:07 pm (UTC -4)
pitching pitching pitching
Take advantage of the supply of relief pitchers; especially in light of the fact that the Type A designation is meaningless to the Mets whose draft pick is protected.
A guy like Kuroda would have been ideal for the rotation; solid guy on a short term contract. There has to be others like that. There always is.
I’d like to see some semblance of the new philosophy when it comes to minor acquisitions, i.e. spring training invitees focusing on high K pitchers, etc.
I think the lineup is pretty much set as is. There’s too much money invested and there are too many injuries preventing trades. I don’t see an obvious and affordable upgrade for Castillo at 2B so I’d let him and Turner and Murphy and Tejada all stake their claims.
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-4:10pm at 4:10 pm (UTC -4)
Amen on that. Have you spent time in any bagel shops mentioning these plans to passers-by?
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-4:17pm at 4:17 pm (UTC -4)
unfortunately all accounts say we dont have the money to get Kuroda, Garland or any of those pitchers.
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-4:20pm at 4:20 pm (UTC -4)
Poppycock and Boulderdash! It’s there. We just need some 3 in 1 oil for them purse hinges!
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-4:25pm at 4:25 pm (UTC -4)
Over at MMO, there is an article about an article of a trade with the Dbacks.
http://metsmerizedonline.com/2010/11/rumored-blockbuster-trade-with-d-backs.html
It’s most likely complete nonsense, but it fit the Reyes mold today and made me chuckle.
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-4:30pm at 4:30 pm (UTC -4)
lol i also heard we were throwing in the rights to Charlie Samuels
rustyjr
11/24/2010-4:42pm at 4:42 pm (UTC -4)
Where is jerz to translate ?
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-4:49pm at 4:49 pm (UTC -4)
someone has a translation link in the comments, done by google translate, so you know it’s solid! heh.
saltygary
11/24/2010-4:44pm at 4:44 pm (UTC -4)
Wouldn’t that be a Christmas present.
wannybackstra
11/24/2010-9:48pm at 9:48 pm (UTC -4)
I would put the chances at zero percent that kevin towers would trade two excellent young players (one a potential superstar) in order to greatly increase salary for 2011 and then potentially lose both players. The fact that Beltran finished the season on the DL doesn’t help either.
stickguy
11/24/2010-7:45pm at 7:45 pm (UTC -4)
my guess is that the downplaying of Reyes by the FO is a negotiating ploy to try and get them to come in cheaper. Act nonchalant, and be happy if team Reyes wants to come in with a reasonable offer (4/44, or whatever.)
I have said all along (and still stand by it) that if he plays out the season, he is gone. And if they decide to give him 1/2 a season, he is gone. either he is having a bad year and they won’t offer, or he is cranking and decides to play out the year and hit the jackpot.
But, if they get a really good offer this off season, take it and move on.
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-8:22pm at 8:22 pm (UTC -4)
I dont see why they can’t sign him after the season. The Mets have a ridiculous amount of money coming off the books and only one place to spend it (#1a SP).
stickguy
11/24/2010-8:39pm at 8:39 pm (UTC -4)
Some team will make him a stupid offer, and I think the Mets are too smart now to beat it.
Not that they might not want him back, but he will be way over budget. And it is not a good business decision to spend too much money just because you have it available.
oleosmirf
11/24/2010-9:08pm at 9:08 pm (UTC -4)
Beltran, Castillo, Perez are 40 million right there. sure they will need to pay the homegrown guys and acquire another SP but after that you still have plenty of room to pay Reyes and extra 4-6 mil
stickguy
11/24/2010-9:15pm at 9:15 pm (UTC -4)
but again, just cause you have some left over money, does not mean you should over pay someone to get rid of it. Think: Ollie.
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-9:32pm at 9:32 pm (UTC -4)
My thoughts on why an extension would be worth the risk.
metsfan4decades
11/24/2010-7:56pm at 7:56 pm (UTC -4)
On the trade Reyes discussion, over on MLBTR:
Jose Reyes is available, but the Mets want three or four players in exchange for their shortstop, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (on Twitter).
MLBTR writer B. Smith then comments right behind this:
There’s no indication that Mets GM Sandy Alderson is actively shopping Reyes, but there would be a market for him.
***********************************************************
So is this just all speculation, some off handed comment about wanting ‘a boatload’ back for Reyes or have to wonder if Sandy has thrown Reyes’ name out there?
njstuckintx
11/24/2010-7:58pm at 7:58 pm (UTC -4)
slow news day.
stickguy
11/24/2010-8:08pm at 8:08 pm (UTC -4)
classic case of not really wanting to trade the guy, but if someone wants to make a godfather offer, you can be convinced.
Ceetar
11/24/2010-8:35pm at 8:35 pm (UTC -4)
“I think I’ll keep Reyes..but while you’re on the phone, how about that XXX guy?”