In part one, I examined whether advanced stats argued in favor of the Mets trading Jose Reyes. And, found that they do.
Today, recognizing it takes two to tango, we’re going to look at potential trade partners for a Reyes deal. But first, we need to understand a little better why the Mets would trade Jose.
While the comments section to part one was generally pro-trade, a number of commenters advanced the argument that if Reyes had a “bounce-back” 2011, then the Mets could easily afford to give Reyes a multi-year extension. Relatedly, those same commenters contended the Mets would not be able to find a shortstop that was as good as Reyes to replace him.
Both arguments are correct—as far as they go. It is possible, however, to believe the Mets can afford Reyes, that he will be the best shortstop the Mets can have going forward, and still think he should be traded. The reason why is twofold: first, as part one showed, while Reyes may put up good numbers for a shortstop, his overall numbers just aren’t that special; and it’s likely he’s going to get worse, not better. Second, by trading Reyes, there is the potential to receive multiple players in return; one or more of whom could provide more value to the team’s success than Reyes would.
To pick a slightly exaggerated example, let’s say that the Mets traded Reyes four years ago to the Reds for then-prospects Joey Votto and Josh Hamilton. Fast forward to 2010, as a result of the trade, the Mets had a slightly below-average shortstop like John McDonald of the Blue Jays. When healthy, there’s obviously a big gap in skills between Reyes and McDonald. But that difference would be swamped by the additions of Hamilton and Votto to the roster.
This is a nice time to introduce VORP (Value Over a Replacement Player), to illustrate my point. As I’ve mentioned earlier, I don’t love stats like WAR or WARP because I am dubious of the reliability of advanced defensive metrics. What makes VORP nice is it allows us to measure a player’s offensive value compared to what any freely available “minor-league” free agent type at the same position would produce. VORP is measured in runs. So, if a catcher has a VORP of 30,that would mean for a given season, he would produce 30 more runs than say, Omir Santos.
Let’s take a look at our hypothetical trade of Reyes to the Reds and Votto and Hamilton to the Mets. To do a full VORP calculation, we need to also recognize that Ike Davis and Angel Pagan probably don’t play as much (I’ll cut Pagan’s VORP by 2/3 and not give any VORP to Davis), and, I’ll credit Reyes with his 2008 VORP because that was the last year he played a full season.
| Player | VORP | Gain (loss) to Mets |
| Jose Reyes | 62.9 | (62.9) |
| John McDonald | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Josh Hamilton | 80.5 | 70.3 |
| Joey Votto | 78.2 | 56.9 |
In total, the Mets would have gained 68 or so extra runs last season in that exchange. Roughly, that’s about 7 extra wins (and seven fewer losses). That’s pretty substantial. And of course, it doesn’t stop there. If Davis were blocked at first by Votto, he could have been traded for a young pitcher (or Cliff Lee), further bolstering the Mets.
What’s the takeaway? The Mets could get a lot worse at shortstop, but if they got a lot better elsewhere, it could still work out significantly in the Mets favor.
And, like it or not, right now, Reyes and Wright are the only two players that can get you a haul of young players with potential. Wright doesn’t seem to be going anywhere, and that leaves you Reyes. Perhaps, one might say, why don’t the Mets keep Reyes and in 2012 use their money to sign free agents? Well, first of all, there’s not a lot of high-level talent on the 2012 free agent list and in particular, there’s very little high level pitching talent. Second, free agent pitching (and free agency in general) is such a crapshoot. For every CC Sabathia there are two or three Barry Zito’s.
Ok, you might then say, why not just wait until our current young players develop and add Reyes to the mix. Here is another problem. The Mets have an average farm system. Most of the talent at the top levels is simply not elite-level. At the lower levels there are the Wilmer Flores’ of the world, who may turn out to be elite, but by the time they’re ready, Reyes will already be on the downswing of his career.
So, we are left with a trade of Reyes. Where might he go? In identifying potential trade partners, I set the following three requirements:
1) Need for a top-tier shortstop and a desire to win fairly soon.
2) 2-3 “impact” young players, either at the minor league level or with only a couple of years of service time.
3) A willingness to take on payroll.
In no particular order, here are the most likely suspects and possible deals:
San Francisco Giants: The defending champs need a shortstop and there are already rumors the Mets and Giants are in discussions. The Giants top prospect is Brandon Belt, who plays first base. For a deal to work out, the Mets would probably then need to ship Belt (or Ike) elsewhere. But I could see Reyes to the Giants for Belt and Madison Bumgardner. The Mets could then turn around and deal Belt to Baltimore for one of their top pitching prospects like Zach Britton. All of a sudden, the Mets have two young starters around which they can build their rotation for the future.
Boston Red Sox: Boston feels the need to upgrade their current team. If they lose out on Carl Crawford I could see them making a play for Reyes—particularly given their emphasis on defense. A package centered around their top pitching prospect Casey Kelly and either Jacoby Ellsbury, Ryan Kalish and Josh Reddick could work. The Mets get a potential ace and an outfielder to replace Carlos Beltran in 2012.
Los Angeles Angels: They too could have interest if they lose out on Carl Crawford. Here, I like a package focused around the Angels top prospect, Outfielder Mike Trout who combined for a .341/.428/.490 line at A/AA last year. He also had 56 steals, meaning that unlike Reyes, he would actually be an ideal leadoff hitter. Alternatively, I would like a package of Catcher Hank Conger (.300/.385/.463) at Triple-A, and closer-to-be Jordan Walden (23 K’s in 15 innings in the bigs). The Mets could also ask for Erick Aybar to replace Reyes at Short in the short-term.
Chicago White Sox: Assuming they’ve had enough of Alexi Ramirez, the Mets could ask for Gordon Beckham and OF prospect Jordan Mitchell, who missed all of last season due to a leg injury but if healthy is a top prospect.
Overall, I think the Orioles and Angels probably are the best fits. In particular, Trout from the Angels is a can’t miss outfielder that could really thrive at Citi Field for a long time. I think they’d be extremely reluctant to trade him, but if he could be pried, the Mets should leap at the opportunity. Trout’s going to be the player we hoped Jose Reyes could be.
In closing, the key takeaway from this two part series is that Jose Reyes has been an exciting player to watch, but he’s not getting any better, and isn’t a truly elite player. If the Mets can make themselves better in the long-run, by obtaining multiple good young players they should do so.
75 comments
TRS86
11/27/2010-1:18pm at 1:18 pm (UTC -4)
Nice work. However this is not 4 years ago and hindsight plays well by choosing Votto and Hamilton. Perhaps they choose 2 guys that never pan out. Regardless those 4 years have past and Reyes is not bringing 2 top prospects at this point. At this point I am not sure he brings Madison Bumgardner. You have to remember that the same reason the Mets would look into trading him is the same reason that other teams would not give the world for him. He has been unhealthy, he did not put up great stats in 2010 AND most of all he is a FA that will almost surely test the market if traded. I am just not sure that Reyes’ value is high enough to off-set the lack of production when he is traded. Again, at this point I think they are better off waiting until the ASB and see where they are. Talk about an extension and if needed trade him then.
metsfan4decades
11/27/2010-7:13pm at 7:13 pm (UTC -4)
Thiis my opinion as well.
If the smart GMs are doing their homework, just like we expect Alderson to, then we’re not getting back more than Reyes is supposedly worth right now.
oleosmirf
11/27/2010-3:14pm at 3:14 pm (UTC -4)
lol Madison Bumgarner and Brandon Belt. I stopped reading right after that.
When its all said and done, Reyes isnt going anywhere…
Ceetar
11/27/2010-3:15pm at 3:15 pm (UTC -4)
None of those make the team clearly better in 2011, and is only a chance at better beyond that. The team has to be better both in 2011 and the future for me to make a deal with Reyes.
So as they say in the biz, No Way Jose.
TRS86
11/27/2010-3:26pm at 3:26 pm (UTC -4)
Come on Ceetar. IF the Mets could get Bumgarner and Belt? LOL the Mets would run at the chance.
That being said, that type of deal is just not happening.
Ceetar
11/27/2010-3:42pm at 3:42 pm (UTC -4)
well, That’s probably the most the Mets could expect, and it still clearly doesn’t make the Mets better in 2011. I think it’s more apt the Mets can find some pitching than a good SS. Which has to be part of the equation. This post looks at it in an either/or scenario. They’d be “Better off” by trading Reyes and getting more production out of the parts and carrying a replacement level SS, but in the quest to not have replacement level players anywhere, one of the Mets biggest problems, keeping Reyes and finding Hamilton/Votto guys.
i.e. Reyes + Ike and Pagan/RF is going to have more VORP than McDonald + Votto/Hamilton. or at least close enough that trading for prospects in the hope they reach their extreme upper ceiling of Votto/Hamilton is not worth it.
I guess it gives you some flexibility to be creative. Belt to RF and trade someone. or Wright or Belt to second?
TRS86
11/27/2010-3:46pm at 3:46 pm (UTC -4)
Ceetar you can’t think about things year by year. While they MIGHT (although Bumgarner looks ready now) not be AS good in 2011 they would be much better long term than getting nothing in return for Reyes OR paying top dollar for him longterm. Again, that deal makes no sense for the Giants.
oleosmirf
11/27/2010-4:00pm at 4:00 pm (UTC -4)
it does if you’re a Mets fan!!!
metsfan2011
11/27/2010-3:44pm at 3:44 pm (UTC -4)
I think you overestimate Brian Sabean. Reyes is still seen in some quarters as a premium player and Sabean isn’t the most savvy guy.
TRS86
11/27/2010-3:47pm at 3:47 pm (UTC -4)
Savy or not he is not trading a top guy for 1 year of Reyes.
TRS86
11/27/2010-3:47pm at 3:47 pm (UTC -4)
much less 2 top guys.
oleosmirf
11/27/2010-3:57pm at 3:57 pm (UTC -4)
lol you do realize that Bumgarner is already more valuable than Niese or Pelfrey.
kingman 26
11/27/2010-4:02pm at 4:02 pm (UTC -4)
Considering his age, being a lefty, his cost, minor league stats, and postseason record this year, how many players in the entire Met SYSTEM are more valuable than Baumgarner?
Wright?
And check out Belt. Another Posey/Lincecum/Baumgarner on the way.
oleosmirf
11/27/2010-4:05pm at 4:05 pm (UTC -4)
i mean why not just trade Reyes to Washington for Bryce Harper and Drew Storen while we’re at it!!!
kingman 26
11/27/2010-4:14pm at 4:14 pm (UTC -4)
Utterly ridiculous unless they include Strasburg and Zimmerman.
Geez, only 53 IP, but Storen has only allowed 33 hits, 11 BB, and 3 HR!
Damn, the Nats do have some serious players brewing….
rustyjr
11/27/2010-4:20pm at 4:20 pm (UTC -4)
Amos Otis anyone ?
kingman 26
11/27/2010-4:22pm at 4:22 pm (UTC -4)
For Jim Fregosi??
Victor Zambrano??
Mickey Lolich??
Ceetar
11/27/2010-4:23pm at 4:23 pm (UTC -4)
your opinion does not make it so.
And Bumgarner is not Lincecum off of half a season.
I’d be extremely surprised if he’s more valuable to a team next year than Reyes. Extremely.
And for a ‘top prospect’ crapshoot? Sure, everything could turn out just peachy. Or we could have the likes of Ruben Tejada at SS for years and never get any production there.
The Mets should be looking to bring in players, but not at the expense of players.
They _might_ be better long term, but the likelyhood of that is very unclear. I’d much rather try to find a pitcher in Mejia or Gee or the other prospects or the new draftees (or the two picks for Reyes if he were to walk). You can look at the minors and say it’s “average” but that stuff changes year to year. They could draft college guys this year that could be in the majors as soon as 2013. Pelfrey and Niese are good pitchers, Santana’s career is not over. I think we can get at least another year out of Dickey. IT’s not like the Mets are desperate to find a rotation of all under 25 high upside prospects.
The talk this offseason should not be about trading our best players. We are not the Kansas City Royals.
kingman 26
11/27/2010-4:27pm at 4:27 pm (UTC -4)
Name another 6’5″ lefty, age 21, with his numbers in the minors, majors and in the postseason as a 20-21 year old.
If you are actually arguing that Pelfrey OR Niese is more valuable than Baumgarner right now, then wow is all I can say.
You are consistent, that is for 100% certain.
oleosmirf
11/27/2010-7:55pm at 7:55 pm (UTC -4)
i agree that all this talk of trading Reyes is silly but to say that Pelfrey or Niese are worth more than Bumgarner is crazy.
Bumgarner’s numbers in the minors and in the majors are better than Pelf or Niese ever has been at their level. not to mention he’s much younger and has shown he can pitch at a high level in the post-season.
kingman 26
11/27/2010-3:53pm at 3:53 pm (UTC -4)
“…it still clearly doesn’t make the Mets better in 2011″
Baumgartner and Belt for Jose’s two years of injuries and mediocrity would not would not improve the team AND make it younger?
Yeah, I guess when you anazlyze it, the Giants have not produced much lately from their system. Oh, wait….
At your Thanksgiving Ceetar, did you argue with everyone else at the table and insist that turkey really isn’t THAT popular on Thanksgiving?
kingman 26
11/27/2010-4:17pm at 4:17 pm (UTC -4)
I like the piece and the thinking, but I disagree that we need to find a top level SS.
Top level prospects anywhere would be fine with me.
The Mets won their titles with Harrelson and Santana manning SS, and can win one with Tejada hitting under .250 if he plays great defense and we have enough talent elsewhere.
Just let Sandy and his boys find serious prospects like the Giants have had the last few years; I don’t care where they play.
oleosmirf
11/27/2010-4:19pm at 4:19 pm (UTC -4)
I agree although the Jose Reyes of 2010 was still better than almost every SS in baseball. Unless we can proven talent for him, the best move is to just let him play out 2011 and go from there…
kingman 26
11/27/2010-4:24pm at 4:24 pm (UTC -4)
I do not disagree largely, but I still think that even if he has a so-so year, he is going to get a huge deal from someone, and I would hate to see him walk for nothing.
I do think Jose is good and is valuable, but I think we can spend the money better elsewhere.
Still, if on July 1 he has played 80 games and is on pace for a season like 2006–2008, yeah, start negotiating an extension.
I just do not think that will happen. Please give me grief if it does!
oleosmirf
11/27/2010-5:08pm at 5:08 pm (UTC -4)
i can agree with that but lets say for arguments sake he finishes the season as a Met with a line of .280/.340/.425 105 OPS+ 12 HR 50 SB (which is slightly below his 06-08 AVG).
What would you do if you were the GM???
njstuckintx
11/27/2010-5:12pm at 5:12 pm (UTC -4)
Start at 14 per for 4 years, see what the market bears, dont go over 4 years or 17 mil and then hope those 2 picks turn out to be golden.
And if I was GM, I’d have a 3 year extension at 15 per on the table now. I know most disagree, but hey, I’m not most.
kingman 26
11/27/2010-5:38pm at 5:38 pm (UTC -4)
I would not give him 4/17….I don’t think he is worth that unless he fully returns both offensively AND defensively to what he was in 2006–2008.
Some folks are forgetting that Jose did not just slide at the plate—he was not as good in the field or on the basepaths either.
Every aspect of his game has been diminished.
So, I guess Oleo, if he finished the year with those numbers I would see what other offers he got.
oleosmirf
11/27/2010-5:50pm at 5:50 pm (UTC -4)
fair enough although if Reyes gets back to his old ways (even if his numbers are slightly less than 06-08), i would 100% want him back and would overpay (in money not years) to do so.
kingman 26
11/27/2010-6:34pm at 6:34 pm (UTC -4)
I agree with this—would overpay in money, but NOT in years, to protect against more injuries and backsliding.
njstuckintx
11/27/2010-6:20pm at 6:20 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, man, he’s such a coin flip at this point. could be amazing, could be a flop (based on the money and such). While I would max at 4/17, I would almost bet my first born that someone (LAA, BOS, BAL) will go over that.
Ceetar
11/27/2010-4:25pm at 4:25 pm (UTC -4)
Just because a team wins once with a subpar shortstop does not mean you can throw away production there because it’s unimportant.
kingman 26
11/27/2010-4:29pm at 4:29 pm (UTC -4)
It was twice, not once.
But you are right, it clearly proves that a team MUST have a star at SS.
And who the hell said it was unimportant? I don’t make arguments like yours.
What I said was that you can have mediocrity offensively at SS if the SS is a good fielder and you have enough talent elsewhere.
Where do I say it is unimportant? Or that it should be “thrown away”??
Ceetar
11/27/2010-4:35pm at 4:35 pm (UTC -4)
That’s the whole crux of the post. throwing away production at SS for other positions. It’s just as easy to win with a productive SS and a mediocre 1Bman. And guess what? It’s easier to upgrade that mediocre guy at first than at SS, so all you’re doing in a trade is making the upgrade possibilities in the future more difficult.
Not to mention Tejada’s barely proven himself much above average defensively, isn’t that fast, and can’t hit at all. And that’s roughly who we’d have to replace Reyes if we didn’t get someone back.
But this is obvious to those of us that understand the game.
kingman 26
11/27/2010-4:43pm at 4:43 pm (UTC -4)
Let’s let the posters words say it for you: “The reason why is twofold: first, as part one showed, while Reyes may put up good numbers for a shortstop, his overall numbers just aren’t that special; and it’s likely he’s going to get worse, not better. Second, by trading Reyes, there is the potential to receive multiple players in return; one or more of whom could provide more value to the team’s success than Reyes would……The Mets could get a lot worse at shortstop, but if they got a lot better elsewhere, it could still work out significantly in the Mets favor……Jose Reyes has been an exciting player to watch, but he’s not getting any better, and isn’t a truly elite player. If the Mets can make themselves better in the long-run, by obtaining multiple good young players they should do so.”
Then there is the matter of Reyes’s two years of injuries, mediocrity, lack of focus and instincts, and lack of improvement in any facet of the game in years. And his softness, defiant lack of focus, and complete collapse down the stretch in 2007 and 2008.
———————————————————————-
“But this is obvious to those of us that understand the game.”
This is truly too much.
njstuckintx
11/27/2010-5:03pm at 5:03 pm (UTC -4)
“obvious” or not, I agree that it is tougher to find production at SS than 1B, 3B or OF. If Reyes is traded, it can’t strictly be for positional players. You have to be looking for 2-3 players of impact in return. A pitcher is a must and then a position player.
Now to another part mentioned above, trading Reyes does weaken you in 2011, as you are looking to get people back that will contribute in the future. But, that whole debate will come down to planning for 2012+ and hoping 2011 turns out OK or really making a push for it in 2011 (which would mean not trading Reyes, or Beltran, or Pagan…)
metsfan4decades
11/27/2010-7:20pm at 7:20 pm (UTC -4)
‘The Mets won their titles with Harrelson and Santana manning SS, and can win one with Tejada hitting under .250 if he plays great defense and we have enough talent elsewhere.’
Not as currently constructed they can’t.
In ’69 the pitching was far superior than what we’ve got right now and are likely to have for a few years.
In ’86, not only was the pitching better, so were the bats. That’s why they could afford the Elster/Santana platoon at SS.
I just keep going back to are we better with or w/o Reyes? And if looking for a trade, it’s all going to come down to what we get back. If they’re prospects, that’s always iffy, but I realize sometimes you have to take those chances.
njstuckintx
11/27/2010-4:36pm at 4:36 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, I do think you probably don’t get Bumgarden and another, but if you are selling from a position of strength, you could get a decent haul. I still hope they extend him and under people better than Willie or Jerry, turns the corner and becomes Super Jose, the realization of all that potential.
metsfan2011
11/27/2010-4:39pm at 4:39 pm (UTC -4)
implicit in this analysis is that we get something good back. It goes without saying if the Mets aren’t going to get high-ceiling talent in return for Reyes then they shouldn’t trade him.
kingman 26
11/27/2010-4:44pm at 4:44 pm (UTC -4)
Yes, everyone here but Ceetar clearly understands that.
But he knows the game better than any of us, so who knows?
njstuckintx
11/27/2010-4:56pm at 4:56 pm (UTC -4)
Be nice… Tis the season and all.
kingman 26
11/27/2010-5:00pm at 5:00 pm (UTC -4)
If you insist.
njstuckintx
11/27/2010-5:04pm at 5:04 pm (UTC -4)
I do. You are a good man, Kong. No one will make me think differently.
kingman 26
11/27/2010-5:36pm at 5:36 pm (UTC -4)
I really sincerely appreciate that from you sir.
oleosmirf
11/27/2010-5:11pm at 5:11 pm (UTC -4)
the problem with trading Reyes this offseason is that due to the fact he has been injured/sub-par for the past 2 seasons, the guys we would be getting in return wont be top prospects.
I just don’t see why we should trade Reyes at cents on the dollar
njstuckintx
11/27/2010-5:12pm at 5:12 pm (UTC -4)
I concur.
kingman 26
11/27/2010-5:36pm at 5:36 pm (UTC -4)
Oops, that was supposed to be above!
But I meant it enough to post it twice NJTX.
njstuckintx
11/27/2010-6:17pm at 6:17 pm (UTC -4)
kingman 26
11/27/2010-5:35pm at 5:35 pm (UTC -4)
I sincerely appreciate that from you sir.
stickguy
11/27/2010-6:39pm at 6:39 pm (UTC -4)
interesting piece. I fully agree that if they can get some high end guys, do it.
there are some other factors to keep in mind:
1) the SS the Mets would get is probably gonna be better than replacement level (defined as a misc. AAA spare part). More likely an old guy stop gap. the other Tejada? Cabrera? Someone reliable, not fantastic, but way better than Ruben.
2) the 12mill for 2011 has to be accounted for just as much as the 1 year left, especially factoring in the talent back. Always a question of will the team eat salary to get better talent?
3) Don’t forget that along with 1 year of Reyes, you should be getting 2 high picks back (I assume he will be a type A with a normal year in 2011). So, if a team gives up 2 closer prospects, they will just be replacing them with young talent. And for a team that has the nice problems of too many high end guys (and/or blocked ones) this could be a good option.
njstuckintx
11/27/2010-7:02pm at 7:02 pm (UTC -4)
when is stickguy, volume 2 coming?
stickguy
11/27/2010-11:55pm at 11:55 pm (UTC -4)
Anticipaaaaaation, is making me wait. it’s keeping me waaiiiitttting.
kingman 26
11/28/2010-12:05am at 12:05 am (UTC -4)
Enough with the distractions and excuses.
Met Nation demands more Stickguy.
Let’s have it buster.
njstuckintx
11/28/2010-8:09am at 8:09 am (UTC -4)
Is that the Carly Simon version, or J Mascis?
stickguy
11/28/2010-10:30am at 10:30 am (UTC -4)
being as I am old, and have no idea who J Mascis is, I will go with Carly.
She had one hot album cover back in the 70′s too.
rustyjr
11/28/2010-10:32am at 10:32 am (UTC -4)
you never heard of dinosaur jr !!!???!!!
stickguy
11/28/2010-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
I know who baby bop is. Same thing?
rustyjr
11/28/2010-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
lmfao – he’s a great grunge guitarist
kingman 26
11/28/2010-12:47pm at 12:47 pm (UTC -4)
Living All Over Me!!
One of THE best and most visionary records of the pre-Grunge era!!
metsfan4decades
11/27/2010-7:28pm at 7:28 pm (UTC -4)
Trading Reyes right now is selling low.
Waiting until the ASB might be too late. What GM in their right mind is going to give up a good haul for a 1/2 year rental? He’s not going to be the difference maker for some team looking to win the division.
I predict Reyes will play here all season. Then he goes FA. If he does go FA, he likely will not sign here.
So right now, I’m thinking the only way Reyes is our SS for the near future is an extension worked out by the ASB or soon after.
oleosmirf
11/27/2010-7:59pm at 7:59 pm (UTC -4)
I dont see why everyone thinks that if Reyes doesnt sign an extension by the end of the season, he is most likely gone. Reyes loves it here and while normally I would say a player is just saying things to appease the fans and media, i truly believe Reyes wants to be a Met his entire career. I see no indication whatsoever that Reyes will just say goodbye once the season ends.
njstuckintx
11/27/2010-8:21pm at 8:21 pm (UTC -4)
Where is it proven that Reyes loves it here? I’ll roll with you on believing Reyes wants to be a Met for his career, but there is nothing to prove that. Someone flashes a whole lot of Benjamins, he’ll be gone.
metsfan4decades
11/27/2010-9:55pm at 9:55 pm (UTC -4)
I’m in the camp of wanting Reyes to be our SS for the future.
With that being said though, I’m a bit of a cynic. We’ve all seen FAs follow the money. I know Reyes has said he loves NY and would like to stay on the Mets. I’ve also seen his comments where he’s followed that up with something like ‘I realize how these things go. I’ll just have to see how this all works out’.
I’m paraphrasing a bit but that was the first hint I saw that while Reyes might give a bit of a hometown discount, he’s no different than many. He wants that respect and respect to these ballplayers usually = $$.
njstuckintx
11/27/2010-9:59pm at 9:59 pm (UTC -4)
Exactly. Everyone is comfortable until more money makes you “more” comfortable. Money talks, for sure.
stickguy
11/27/2010-11:54pm at 11:54 pm (UTC -4)
exactly. I am the king of the “he is gone if he hits FA” club. And it isn’t simply because he wants to leave, just that some team (IMO) drops a huge offer on him, that the Mets aren’t willing to match (and that is actually a good trait!)
oleosmirf
11/28/2010-6:08am at 6:08 am (UTC -4)
we are the Mets not the Padres. We have the money to resign our free agents.
oleosmirf
11/27/2010-8:10pm at 8:10 pm (UTC -4)
also the return we get on Reyes wont be better than the type A compensation. someone should make a post out of it but Lets look at some examples of top players being traded at the deadlines in recent years.
Braves trade Teixiera to Angels for Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek
Indians trade Sabathia to Brewers for Matt LaPorta. Rob Bryson, Zach Jackson
Indians trade V. Martinez to Red Sox for Bryan Price, Nick Hagadone and Justin Masterson.
Padres trade Peavy to White Sox for Dexter Carter, Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard and Adam Russell.
Only the Padres seem to have gotten the better deal but that was only 4 instances, im sure some of you can find others…
njstuckintx
11/27/2010-8:20pm at 8:20 pm (UTC -4)
This goes back to Grave’s article on trading a star, you rarely get back something comparable. (have I mentioned resigning young Reyes before?…
)
oleosmirf
11/27/2010-8:37pm at 8:37 pm (UTC -4)
yea but signing him now doesnt make much sense b/c if he has a 3rd bad year then what? you dont wanna rely on Operation Hope and Pray again.
njstuckintx
11/27/2010-9:43pm at 9:43 pm (UTC -4)
Well, there is the big decision to make. Do you gamble and buy low, or do you gamble and hedge your bets? Gamble & buy low, you come out with a very friendly contract for the Mets. Gamble and hedge your bets… Well, you’ll either not waste your money on a busted player, somehow convince a rejuvenated player to sign with you or you lose said rejuvenated player to the masses.
These are the decisions that come from people who make more in a month than I make in a year.
oleosmirf
11/27/2010-9:45pm at 9:45 pm (UTC -4)
there is nothing to gamble, if the Mets want him back, he will be back
njstuckintx
11/27/2010-9:57pm at 9:57 pm (UTC -4)
The gamble is the cost. You wait and he plays above expectations, you’re going to be paying (or should I say overpaying) for Reyes. He’ll get 5 years, easy. 17 or 18+ for 5 years, if not more, would be roughly what he’ll command, if not more.
I’ll say this, I want Reyes with the Mets. So do you. If he hits free agency, you feel the Mets can retain him. I don’t. I hope you are right. Unfortunately, I feel that I am. Time will tell.
metsfan2011
11/29/2010-8:59am at 8:59 am (UTC -4)
The lesson I would take from that is don’t wait until the trading deadline to make your deal.
njstuckintx
11/27/2010-10:02pm at 10:02 pm (UTC -4)
MF2011. Another solid article, by the way.
metsfan4decades
11/27/2010-10:03pm at 10:03 pm (UTC -4)
Also, Sandy was quoted as saying he wants to see Reyes ‘play a bit’ before talking about an extension.
So IMO, if Sandy doesn’t get wooed by some trade this off season and Reyes is gone then if they do have any plans to offer him an extension, I don’t expect to hear much about that before July.
njstuckintx
11/29/2010-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
The Mets’ internal discussions about trading Reyes were just “normal due diligence,” reports Andy Martino of the New York Daily News, and he’s more likely to stay with the team for 2011.
I think we all figured this.