Here comes Sandy Claus / Here comes Sandy Claus / Right down Roosevelt Ave.
As we close the book on 2010 and (mercifully) the Minaya regime, it is time to draw up the wish list of what new GM Sandy Alderson and company will hopefully leave under our Christmas Tree, or Hanukah Bush….or Winter Solstice Chanting Circle. You know what, let’s call it a Bat Rack – let’s see what Sandy Claus will leave in our Bat Rack for the holidays. Of course, there’s liable to be some coal in there – I’m afraid we all weren’t good. But with the Winter Meetings upon us…let’s see what (if anything) can be done to boost the farm system as we head to 2011!
Rule V draft – for the uninitiated, the Rule V draft was put in place to offer minor leaguers who were victims of a logjam in their current organization a chance to catch on in the bigs with another team. The catch is, these players come with strings attached. For each player you take in the Major League phase of the draft (we won’t get into the Minor league phase here) a team must pay the player’s old team $50K. But here’s the kicker, that player must then be on your MAJOR LEAGUE roster (the 25 man one) all year (except for injury rehab). If you try to send them down, whether it be in Spring Training or next to last day of the season, that player’s old team can claim him back. Seeing that the Mets have at least two dead roster spots (coughOliverPerezandLuisCastillo) it is highly unlikely that they will further tie their hands with an unproven newcomer from another organization who limits roster flexibility for the rest of the season.
Trades – as we have seen form the recent Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox deal, most major leaguer for minor leaguers trades involve one team acquiring a stockpile of young cheap talent that may have an impact later in exchange for an established (and expensive) player who can have an impact right now. The two Mets who have been floated out there as a possibility to be dealt and fetch back some prospects are Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran. Reyes is in the final year of his contract and is due $11MM this year. Despite some unevenness and injuries over the last few seasons he is still considered one of the more unique talents in the game. Beltran, for his part, is owed $19MM this season and is also in the final year of a deal. He is also coming off an injury plagued season. Both of these men will be highly motivated to have big years as they search for their next payday, and it could put the Mets in a good position to flip them for a serious infusion of talent…at the trade deadline.
After the last few seasons, which can only be described as rocky, the Wilpons – with a new front office in tow – are looking to turn their fortunes in 2011. Now granted, they are realists (we think) and don’t expect to contend, but getting out of the gate quickly and giving the fans a competitive summer will go a long way to making the fan base feel better. Reyes and Beltran are a must have if the Mets intend to do just that. But as the season wears on, and the Phillies and Braves begin to pull away, expect the Mets to look into moving at least one of these guys. For the Winter Meetings however, they are likely to lie low.
And frankly, the Mets only have about $5MM to in payroll flexibility this offseason, and their minor league system is seen as having few blue chip prospects. They’re not looking to drain the system any further for someone they can’t afford. Sorry…
Draft – bingo. Here is where this new regime will have their time to shine. For years, the Mets have stuck to MLB’s slot ‘recommendations’ when it came to the draft, essentially eschewing their financial advantage in nabbing top amateur talent for lesser players who will be easier signs. Meanwhile, other clubs – both big and small market – have splashed the cash necessary to get such talent, and developed far stronger farm systems. The Wilpons seem to get ‘getting it’ going over slot last year for two players, including Matt Harvey, a highly regarded right hander out of UNC. Now add the new regime of Sandy Alderson, Paul DePodesta and JP Riccardi, and the Mets are primed to use their financial muscle in the drafts for the foreseeable future. In June, the Mets will select 13th overall, and the new brass has made it clear that they are looking to be aggressive in scouting and player development. Tangibly what does this mean? For starters, the Latin American signees will probably be slowed down in their development path, meaning the Fernando Martinezes of the world will not be over promoted to being the youngest player in the league at each minor league stop. Rather, they will have the opportunity at each level to hone their game, and only move when they are ready. Also, as noted in the book Moneyball, DePodesta, who worked in the A’s front office that was bequeathed to Billy Beane by Alderson, is an innovator in finding undervalued talent and seeing things other team don’t. A repeated phrase from Riccardi after he took the Mets job was “focusing on the core” – meaning that nabbing talent and giving them the needed time to flourish is going to be job one. Not signing the Jayson Werth’s of the world (btw, enjoy that back end of that contract, Washington!). Not sexy, but slow and steady wins the race.
In total, don’t look for a big splash in the coming weeks, and the 2011 Mets will probably resemble the 2010 Mets in many significant ways. This may feel like a lump of coal right now, but perhaps the biggest gift Sandy Claus can give the Mets fan base is the one that will pay off in spades down the line: Patience.
44 comments
njstuckintx
12/6/2010-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
I want patience and I want it right now!
it’s going to be a long and frustrating year, I’m thinking.
stickguy
12/6/2010-1:30pm at 1:30 pm (UTC -4)
actually tex, I think it is going to be a fun and interesting year. Especially with Jerry gone.
PTB, I don’t worry about ollie or slappy being dead roster spots. Most likely they won’t be on the roster at all, and if they are, it will be as starters (God forbid).
and the rule 5 seems like a perfect fit for them, since IMO the easiest place to carry a rule 5 guy is the BP, and last I checked, there were a few open spots out there. So, a live arm to be pen filler (remember O’day?) is just the ticket.
njstuckintx
12/6/2010-1:36pm at 1:36 pm (UTC -4)
And there is always this to keep me going.
DPLennonDPLennon: There is definitely big interest out there for Beltran. If he proves himself healthy, could be nice haul for #Mets at July deadline.
TRS86
12/6/2010-1:39pm at 1:39 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, with guys like Werth getting 7/140 I am sure a team would have taken a healthy Beltran at 1/18. I would imagine that even now if the Mets ate enough contract they could get a decent haul.
stickguy
12/6/2010-1:40pm at 1:40 pm (UTC -4)
If there really is interest, try to trade him now.
You normally don’t get a big haul at the deadline for a rental position guy. Not like a SP at least.
hopefully a few of the teams with interest will decide to make a premptive strike. If the Mets could get a couple of worthwhile pieces back for beltran and 1/2 his salary, then jump on it.
TRS86
12/6/2010-1:42pm at 1:42 pm (UTC -4)
I still think Boston is a great fit. Especially with Werth off the board.
Angels may also be a fit IF they don’t land Crawford.
stickguy
12/6/2010-1:46pm at 1:46 pm (UTC -4)
I guess we still think alike, if yo ulook at my comment below that I was typing while you posted this.
oleosmirf
12/6/2010-2:36pm at 2:36 pm (UTC -4)
if they dont land Crawford, I think they go with what they have and look to add the piece midseason, which he certainly would love to help them there with Beltran…
TRS86
12/6/2010-1:45pm at 1:45 pm (UTC -4)
Obviously my silly trade idea to get things going earlier is not going to happen.
However, I think the Rays are very interesting this off-season. What do you do if you are their GM?
Here’s a team that came just short of the World Series but as presently constructed may not be 3rd place in their division. They still have a lot of talent but do you throw a year away and see what the young replacements have, do you try and spend the 25M+ you have off the books or make a big trade?
stickguy
12/6/2010-1:48pm at 1:48 pm (UTC -4)
my theory for a team like that is to spend what you got. Look for core building block options, and if not there, load up on 1 year guys and make a run.
If it works, great. if not, have a fire sale at the deadline, or keep them and offer arbitration and load up on picks.
stickguy
12/6/2010-1:45pm at 1:45 pm (UTC -4)
Entirely possible they work out a deal for Beltran. as long as his physical looks good, teams will be enticed by his strong september. For 1 year, and say 10mill, worth a flyer to a team like the Red Sox maybe, or plenty of others (angels?)
hell, if they trade him and pull a shocker and move reyes too, they will have tons of free payroll all of a sudden.
and unless they do it fast and get in on crawford or lee, nothing to spend it on!
and man, if that happens I will delete all my links to Met sites, since the venom will be too much to take.
metsfan4decades
12/6/2010-2:02pm at 2:02 pm (UTC -4)
Venom concerning what? Trading Beltran? Reyes? both?
Reading around there are very few Met fans that see this team competing at all in ’11. So trading Beltran probably wouldn’t upset many. Trading Reyes though…..that will be a completely different story. I’m not a fan of that myself.
I wonder if Beltran with that no trade clause will be a problem? ‘Cause it sure would be nice to get something back for him since we get nothing when he walks the end of the season.
stickguy
12/6/2010-2:12pm at 2:12 pm (UTC -4)
the venom comes from the Mets shedding some big salaries, then not spending the money on other players.
You read around, so you know how many people are already incensed that the “big market” mets aren’t spending this off season (even though they already have ~135-140 on the books).
Well, imagine the fan feedback if they suddenly cut that to 115-120, and don’t reinvest the savings in anything but their bank account? Especially after removing the 1st and 3rd most talented players off the roster.
oleosmirf
12/6/2010-2:32pm at 2:32 pm (UTC -4)
well Beltran gets replaced internally by F-Mart or Kirk and Reyes gets resigned. 2B gets replaced by Havens or Murphy stays on. Santana, Pelf, Niese are all locks to return with at least one of Mejia and Harvey coming in and if Dickey has another good year then he’s in the picture as well so the way i see it the Mets offseason goals next offseason are:
1) Resigning Reyes
2) signing a #1a SP
3) an OF in the event noone in the minors is ready
4) improve the pen
60 million is more than enough needed to do those 4 things
oleosmirf
12/6/2010-2:22pm at 2:22 pm (UTC -4)
first off if/when the Mets fall out of legit contention, Beltran will 100% be moved even if we have to eat 90% of the contract. while Beltran might not want to waive it, Boras will certainly remind him how it is his best interest to do so especially if it means going to a team like the Red Sox where he can pad his stats in Fenway or Cincy or Wrigley…
Ceetar
12/6/2010-3:08pm at 3:08 pm (UTC -4)
The thing is the Mets fans that blog and tweet and that you’re reading are maybe 1% of Mets fans that are spending money. And they are the ones that aren’t likely to spend much differently year to year.
It’s the other 99% that buy tickets based on that 1% talking about the Mets, based on the media talking about the mets, and based on the Mets winning.
It’d be like Apple deciding they weren’t goign to develop new products in 2011, and just riding out the year on supporting what they have an hiring new engineers in 2012.
stickguy
12/6/2010-3:19pm at 3:19 pm (UTC -4)
well, the 99% would be reading a slew of negative articles about the Mets then if they did this.
and that is not saying it isn’t the correct plan.
wannybackstra
12/6/2010-3:23pm at 3:23 pm (UTC -4)
The strong September he couldn’t complete?
kingman 26
12/6/2010-4:00pm at 4:00 pm (UTC -4)
I am sure teams are lining up to spend 18 million to take a guy who had a couple of good weeks, and ended the year on the DL. Again.
stickguy
12/6/2010-4:24pm at 4:24 pm (UTC -4)
yes they will. especially since it was more than a few weeks, and he wasn’t on the DL, just sore from the season and shut down for precaution. And since MRI’d and determined to be imporving.
and it will be way less than 18million.
so at 8-10 for a 1 year commitment, there are potentially plenty of suiters.
kingman 26
12/6/2010-4:34pm at 4:34 pm (UTC -4)
Absolutely!
Teams regularly offer to take on 10–15 million of salary for aging, injury-prone players who finish the year injured yet again.
I am sure Alderson is wading through the overwhelming offers of young talent being offered for Beltran and his contract.
No one will have the slightest need to wait to see if he can walk without a limp in the spring before pulling the trigger on a deal.
stickguy
12/6/2010-4:40pm at 4:40 pm (UTC -4)
at least you are finally starting to learn something here. I was about to give up hope.
kingman 26
12/6/2010-5:01pm at 5:01 pm (UTC -4)
LOL!
Haha on the thesaurus comment this morning…happy to say have been SOOOO busy at work.
stickguy
12/6/2010-5:10pm at 5:10 pm (UTC -4)
how much retail business do you guys do (that could translate into holiday bump) vs. more institutional like schools or bands?
kingman 26
12/6/2010-5:59pm at 5:59 pm (UTC -4)
Much, much more institutional biz these days—print music, books, and DVDs to schools and libraries, and print music to bands; literally all over the world. We get a big holiday bump in Christmas-related music.
Still some holiday general public biz in books/CDs/DVDs for gifts, but MUCH less than 6–8 years ago.
Which is great.
Thanks for asking!
metsfan4decades
12/6/2010-2:05pm at 2:05 pm (UTC -4)
Hey, Santana was a Rule V pickup once upon a time.
Never know what you might be able to get there…..
stickguy
12/6/2010-2:09pm at 2:09 pm (UTC -4)
and they hid him in the BP for a year so they could send him down to the minors the following year.
Ceetar
12/6/2010-3:15pm at 3:15 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, that’s where we don’t necessarily have the flexibility to do so. Although had we not protected him, we really did open the door for Mejia to be used in that manner.
stickguy
12/6/2010-3:18pm at 3:18 pm (UTC -4)
they played 1/2 the year with a 6 man pen (and mejia was never more than 1/2 a guy) due to ollie, so it doesn’t seem to be that big of a stretch to use a rule 5 guy in the Ollie (extra innings, mop up, last man out) role.
oleosmirf
12/6/2010-3:22pm at 3:22 pm (UTC -4)
especially if the rule 5 guy can get outs…
Mr North Jersey
12/6/2010-2:19pm at 2:19 pm (UTC -4)
Player to be Framed Later?
I can’t wait to hear the inspiration for this name?
Regarding article I agree also it is about the draft with this FO both mlb amateur and International drafts that will be their time to shine.
Ceetar
12/6/2010-3:09pm at 3:09 pm (UTC -4)
No Jeremy Brown’s please.
njstuckintx
12/6/2010-2:38pm at 2:38 pm (UTC -4)
Where’s Heb?
kistics
12/6/2010-3:13pm at 3:13 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah now I’m getting little worried…
kingman 26
12/6/2010-3:59pm at 3:59 pm (UTC -4)
No response; he also does get all of the emails the authors circulate and has not responded.
I can only hope he is just very busy/new girlfriend/new job/taking a break/etc.
Will certainly let everyone know if/when I hear anything at all.
oleosmirf
12/6/2010-2:47pm at 2:47 pm (UTC -4)
lol I highly doubt the Mets are interested in Dan Wheeler. they arent spending 3-4 mil for 2 years and a 2nd rounder for a setup man.
Ceetar
12/6/2010-3:09pm at 3:09 pm (UTC -4)
A lot of moneyball was the A’s actually going underslot, and colluding with guys saying “we’ll draft you higher if we don’t have to pay you”
kistics
12/6/2010-4:52pm at 4:52 pm (UTC -4)
Orioles virtually gave up nothing for Reynolds…
I know he strikes out a lot and had a pretty bad season, but what am I missing here?
oleosmirf
12/6/2010-4:55pm at 4:55 pm (UTC -4)
well when you bat under .200 its hard to get much in return…
kistics
12/6/2010-5:06pm at 5:06 pm (UTC -4)
That is true, but his value was at the lowest after his last season. I don’t understand why DBacks would just give him away. I would at least wait till mid-season and if he doesn’t improve, you can still trade him for garbage…
oleosmirf
12/6/2010-7:22pm at 7:22 pm (UTC -4)
sounds like the favorites for the coaching staff is Oberkfell as the bench coach, Andy Van Slyke as the hitting coach and apparently Moises Alou has been offered the 1B coach position.
hazmet
12/6/2010-7:34pm at 7:34 pm (UTC -4)
I’m liking the sound of these moves although I don’t know much about Van Slyke as a hitting coach so I went to Wikipedia to see if they had anything I could gleen. From there I found this tidbit that had me in lol mode regarding Andy:
“During the 1991 Gulf War, when the MLB decreed all players would wear both the Canadian and U.S. flags on their batting helmets as a patriotic gesture, Van Slyke scraped the Maple Leaf off his helmet because, in his words “Canada is a pacifist, socialist country.”"
oh my Andy, lol.
stickguy
12/6/2010-8:13pm at 8:13 pm (UTC -4)
sounds gritty to me!
kingman 26
12/6/2010-8:15pm at 8:15 pm (UTC -4)
Yes sir, he has grit where his brain should be.