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Dec 10

I think the Nationals got themselves an Albatross

Let’s congratulate the Nationals in what will be their first major salary dump of their franchise.

As much as I want to see the Nats build a winner, I have to disagree with the Werth move-especially when it involves 126 million dollars.  In my opinion, he’s just a Yankee waiting to happen.  It was a nice pleasant surprise watching the Nationals the past year,  they have some really nice kids and seem to be heading in the right direction, that is until they pulled a move like they did this week.

But what does this have to do with the Mets?

Not much except for the fact that what the Nats did was tie their own hands for any free agent signings that they really might need in the future.  Can you see Werth playing out his contract with Washington?  I can’t, but I can see him play for a team that really needs him, as long as their willing to pick up, say half, of what’s owed him from the rest of that contract. Did I say Yankees?   But then again, with his age, Werth may not be healthy enough to finish it anyway.  But it comes down to this, if the Nats are going to start throwing money around(and they claim not to be finished yet), I don’t want to hear them wine about how they are hamstrung.  The Nationals joined the big leagues this weekend with their big name, big contract acquisition of Jayson Werth.   I think they they picked the albertross, the money is too much, the player is too old, the contract is too long and the team might not be ready.

Welcome to the club boys.

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129 comments

  1. wannybackstra

    What the hell is an “albertross?”

    1. Prismo

      I don’t know, but an albatross is “something burdensome that impedes action or progress.”

      1. rustyjr

        Read the poem Rhyme of the ancient mariner

        1. Prismo

          Yes, it’s albatross, not albertross.

          1. Ceetar

            Albertross is what happens if Pujols marries Diana Ross and changes his name.

    2. TRS86

      I don’t have a clue what you are talking about.

      PS. Gonzo, you owe me one. LOL.

      1. Prismo

        He probably saw it somewhere else and assumed that was the right way to spell it – it’s not like it’s an ordinary every-day word. I saw it used all over the past few days, and every time was spelled albertross, to my dismay. I wasn’t going to say anything here though, so you can blame wanny. ;)

        1. TRS86

          Well… because of my golf game I know full well what albatross means….
          Mostly because to get under 100 I need one on 18 LOL.

          1. Ceetar

            I’ve never played golf. I keep meaning to.

          2. njstuckintx

            It’s 5 hours of beer, funny pants, frustration and that one time you hit the ball absolutely perfect and you think to yourself, “I bet I can do that on every swing… This game ain’t so hard.”

          3. Ceetar

            I’d need clubs and a partner first, that’s the big obstacle ;-)

          4. njstuckintx

            Yeah, having someone to commiserate with at your bad shots is a necessity.

          5. kistics

            You are missing out… on the most frustrating sports in your life….

  2. oleosmirf

    i love how Cerrone (and other “experts”) still have Tejada as the favorite to be the 2B. Have they not listened to Collins and Sandy whom have both said that both will be in AAA.

    1. Ceetar

      Where is Cerrone hyping Tejada? He reposts so much links and other stuff that It’s hard to decipher what his actual opinion is sometime. Personally, I wish he’d cut the MLb Trade Rumors stuff about guys like Crawford who have zero effect on the Mets.

      I mean, sure, if Tejada hits .400 in Spring Training anything could happen, but right now he’s clearly not ready for the majors.

      1. oleosmirf

        “I see Emaus, Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner and Ruben Tejada all competing for two or three similar jobs in Spring Training” considering only two of those play SS, he is inferring that Tejada has a good shot to make the team.

        on SNY Popper and the other guy (was it Lennon?) feel Tejada is the best for job and will inevitably get the job.

        1. kistics

          I thought it was made pretty clear by Sandy and Collins that Tejada will be in the minors.

        2. stickguy

          I saw in a piece today a note that turner was out of options. News to me, as I thought he could go to the minors for 2011. Wonder which is true?

          also a comment from Collins that he doesn’t see turner as suitable for SS for more than 1-2 days to give jose a rest. NP by me, since he should be playing eveyr day, and if he hits the DL someone will get claled up to play SS.

          oh, that assumes that the new FO won’t carry a guy that can’t play for 10 days at a shot.

          1. TRS86

            Well hopefully all he would need to do is play SS for 1-2 days. Anything longer than than should be a DL stint and you can call up Tejada or someone.

          2. oleosmirf

            exactly

          3. wannybackstra

            Under Omar, someone needed to have a limb hanging off before they went on the DL.

          4. stickguy

            be a man. It’s just a flesh wound.

  3. njstuckintx

    As far as Werth being an Albatross, it’s definitely a grander scale, but this is similar to Omar offering a huge deal at 4 years to Pedro, whom we all knew would never be effective for the lift of the contract. But it started a movement of credibility (until they crushed that to a pulp). Maybe this is their start of that.

    1. TRS86

      If they were going that route then they should have just offered Lee 7/200. They would have gotten a better return.

      1. njstuckintx

        They still may.

        1. TRS86

          Then to me they really will be the laughing stock. Even those 2 will not make them contenders.

          1. njstuckintx

            Hey man, I hear you. But in 2 years when their 3-4-5 batters are Zimmerman/Harper/Worth and their 1-2-3 in the rotation is Lee/Strasburg/Lannan or whomever, they may go from laughing stock to maybe just a chuckle stock to even possibly a “well, they paid way to much, but they are pretty good” stock.

          2. fongy2

            Well… We don’t know that. Just as many guys as highly rated as Harper coming out of H.S. have been complete
            busts as have ever even made a living in the bigs.

          3. njstuckintx

            understood, but the odds on harper, based on his past work, hitting the majors (and quickly) is high.

          4. TRS86

            What past work?

          5. stickguy

            he had a SI cover. Don’t you read?

            oh, and a year of JC. Not sure if that prepares you for Roy Halladay though.

          6. njstuckintx

            I’m coming off as a Nats apologist, which I am not. My whole point is that at some point, the Mets in some altered way were in Nats shoes in that they had to change a culture, and pay top dollar to do it (as in Pedro Martinez.) The change in that culture led to others being willing to come to the Mets, where an “all things being equal money wise, i’d lean towards the Mets vs. another” type scenario.

            Yes, the Nats certainly paid too much and will come to regret it at some point down the road, but seeing the production the Mets got out of Pedro for those last 2 years of his contract, I know I regretted them signing that as well.

          7. TRS86

            Thing is I can’t see how Werth has a positive effect on those wanting to come to the Nats the way Pedro would. If anything the only thing that Werth does is show the other FA that the Nats are stupid.

          8. TRS86

            That still will not be enough to get them where that type of money would need to get them. Also that’s placing a lot of stock in a guy that has never played in an MLB game and one guy who will be coming back from TJ. Also is that the same Lannan that had 143 innings of 1.56+ WHIP and 4.65 ERA?
            Remember this year’s offense may even take a step back considering the difference in Dunn and Werth as well as the likelihood of trading Willingham. I just don’t think they are in the position to go all in right now.

          9. njstuckintx

            So change out lannan for zimmerman. Let’s not get all nitpicky here on the details.

          10. TRS86

            OK, so you are still relying on someone who has never produced up to that potential. That’s just the thing, the cast they have is still too much of a question mark to say they will be good in 2 years even with Lee and Werth.

          11. njstuckintx

            We’ll have to leave it at “time will tell” and chat about something else then.

          12. TRS86

            Sounds good. I am tired of Nats talk around here anyway. Lets discuss a team that has not finished last for 15 years.

          13. njstuckintx

            The Yanks?

          14. TRS86

            Now that would really turn ugly. We could talk about the uber gritty Marlins who always have tons of untapped potential.

      2. fongy2

        You’re right TRS. I argued with many who couldn’t understand why the Phils moved him and then went and got Oswalt.
        Lee made it clear along time ago, he was going FA AND was going to the highest bidder. Look, I like Werth who a real good
        4th,5th,6th player on a winning team BUT to pay him Superstar money for 7 yrs to be THE guy is crazy.

        1. stickguy

          I am curious to see how werth responds now that he has the “big man” tag (or at least contract), and probably gets installed in the 4 hole. Will he relax and thrive, or put a ton of pressure on himself and struggle?

          Many Philly people wonder what happened to him this year, since he was horrid in big spots overall (a big reason he only had 85 RBIs). Lots of speculation that he was pressing, knowing he was playing for his contract (not that it ended up mattering!)

          1. fongy2

            I think he was. Started out the seasom great and went through a couple months where he did very little. Also, this was while they had alot of injuries so he obviosly couldn’t carry the team himself.

          2. TRS86

            The 85 RBI is not really that surprising. The guy has never had a season with 100 RBI and his next high was the 85 he had last year. Also his SLG % was only .463 on the road last year (.599 at home… hmmmm). That number is pretty consistent with his road numbers from 2009, his best season. To me the Nats just paid 120M+ for a .280, .375, .475 .850 guy. In other words, Jason Bay.

          3. Prismo

            Well the Red Sox paid $142M for a .296, .337, .444, .781 guy.

          4. TRS86

            I think that would NOT be a good way to judge Crawford. LOL.

          5. fongy2

            agreed

          6. wannybackstra

            Why? Because he steals bases?

            And will he steal so many bases in 5 years?

        2. njstuckintx

          Agreed, it was excessive.

          Maybe 4 for 60 on Dunn would have been best. He doesn’t carry that grit stigma, that apparently has some value.

  4. stickguy

    who knows, maybe the Nats sign Reyes next off season. Pay extra, so he can lead the dance team between innings to entertain the fans (I added that for Knog).

    Or the yankees get involved. that never ends well.

    I guess a year from now we will find out where he goes.

  5. njstuckintx

    Per MLBTR

    The Braves signed George Sherrill to a one-year deal worth at least $1.2MM. The agreement, which is official now that Sherrill passed his physical, could be worth as much as $1.4MM if the left-hander reaches certain incentives.

    1. TRS86

      Good deal for them I guess. Maybe he rebounds but man has he been terrible.

      1. wannybackstra

        Still pitched well v. lefties. And for that price you can justify making him into an OOGY.

  6. Mr North Jersey

    Nice loving the Nats talk today. It’s a good read.

    1. TRS86

      LOL.

  7. Mr North Jersey

    For the record I think the Werth signing was a mistake.

    1. TRS86

      It would honestly be hard to find someone who did not.

      1. Prismo

        Jayson Werth.
        Scott Boras.

      2. njstuckintx

        Carl Crawford. Jose Reyes (come 2012). ;)

        1. Prismo

          Yep, pretty much every semi-big to big name free agent for the next 50 years, as Alderson talked about in an interview yesterday. The Nationals set a disturbing precedent.

        2. TRS86

          Even those guys, as happy as they may be, are laughing at the Nats for that deal.

          1. njstuckintx

            I still feel like the Nats made out with a chick you were dating at the time or stole your lollipop when you were a kid or something.

            Players are so freaking thankful that the Nats did that. The only laughing they are doing is to the bank.

          2. njstuckintx

            It’s comparable to Sylow with Murphy.

          3. TRS86

            Actually I just don’t see it. Why should we respect a team that has finished 4th or lower since 2002 and only above 4th one time since 1996.

          4. TRS86

            Overall (3167-3502 W-L, 1969 – 2010) – 1 Playoff Appearance
            Doesn’t that say it all?

    2. njstuckintx

      For the CD and 8 track, I do as well. But I think the Petey Signing was too.

      1. TRS86

        Thing is the Pedro signing is mostly hind sight. Although most believed the contract was one year too long not many thought of it as a disaster.

        1. fongy2

          agreed again. we all know my feelings about omar but he had
          no choice in going 4yrs for pedro. Otherwise he wasn’t coming here. Its that simple.

  8. Mr North Jersey

    The Nats are an interesting team indeed they have caught my eye these last few years. I look forward to watching where they go from here. After that huge setback with strasburg gettin hurt i am curios how they move forward.

    1. TRS86

      Hey I will be the first to say I was wrong as soon as they put together a respectable season.

      1. Mr North Jersey

        Oh Joy!
        :-P

        1. TRS86

          Oh, don’t lie. You know you would get a big thrill and slight chill when you have to read

          TRS86: “The Nats are actually a good team”.

          1. njstuckintx

            I would think someone hacked your computer. Or you’d been messing with the wacky tabacky.

          2. Mr North Jersey

            hahahaha

  9. Mr North Jersey

    Rusty r u in that blogger only conf?

    1. Ceetar

      why, got a question you want asked?

      1. Mr North Jersey

        More like wanting to see if we have a representative there or not.

        1. Ceetar

          I assume he was invited. They finally decided maybe they shouldn’t be giving us all everyone’s email address and BCC us, so I don’t know for sure he was on the list as usual. Technically I’m representing myself, but I’m not gonna keep any super insider secrets from you guys. :-D

          1. Mr North Jersey

            :-D

            You better not, remember i know you live next door and its a small town not hard to find you.

            I just got to look for a lady with a nice Hawaiian tan that’s not afraid of spiders and Tada I’ll find you. :-P

          2. Ceetar

            The tan has faded and she _is_ afraid of spiders which was part of the reason she took a spider class to ‘get over it’. heh.

            And my real name is common enough that it’s not that easy to track :-D

          3. Mr North Jersey

            Will have to go to Plan B.

            Place an ad giving away free Mets tickets to optimistic mets fans. “-P

          4. Mr North Jersey

            :-P

          5. Ceetar

            speaking of which, I need to find a bloodbank taht gives away free tickets. A friend of mine gave blood (well, they didn’t keep it) and got free tickets that I used last year.

          6. Mr North Jersey

            my daughter gave blood and got tickets to a Nets game.

          7. Ceetar

            That sucks.

            yeah, i imagine I’d have to go give blood in NY for that to work. I wouldn’t turn down Devils tickets..Nets though? geeze.

  10. metsfan4decades

    So is it fair to say now the Nats have become the Yankee team of the National League – at least in comparison to spending whatever it takes to make the team a winner?

    I’m surprised they’re letting the Yankees outbid them for Lee….

  11. fongy2

    What the heck is taking forever to simply choose and name our coaching staff as well as the mgrs and coaches for our minors?????

    1. TRS86

      Time and philosophy. I guess.

    2. njstuckintx

      It’s like mangini not telling who the starter is for the week until the last minute possible. shroud of mystery!

    3. Prismo

      What’s the rush?

    4. kistics

      According to Adam Rubin and Mattsblog, the hitting coach is going to be someone who only had one hit in the majors and has never been a hitting coach….

      But he does sell a instructional DVD on hitting.

      1. TRS86

        “Hi, I’m Dave Hudgens. I’ve spent the last 20 years as a pro hitting coach with the Astros, A’s, and Indians.”

        So what’s that then?

        1. TRS86

          He was the hitting coach for the A’s for years based on my understanding.

        2. kistics

          oh… my bad.. i only saw the blog that MC has on his website.

          1. TRS86

            Yeah the article is misleading. It never says he served as hitting coach but it does not say he did not either. LOL. I am finding out he is actually quite known for his work with the A’s.

          2. kistics

            The article is gone now… hmmm…

      2. Prismo

        Saying “according to Metsblog…” is like saying “according to the bible…” – let’s try and use non-fictional sources from now on. (that one’s for you, rusty!)

        1. Mr North Jersey

          bad analogy.

          1. TRS86

            Terrible. Point taken but comparing Metsblog to the Bible should get you a few extra days in hell for sure.

          2. Prismo

            I don’t believe in hell. :)

          3. Prismo

            Sorry if I offended anyone though. ;)

          4. Mr North Jersey

            your forgiven but try and remember that while your beliefs r your own. some restraint is always welcome when using other peoples beliefs in a joke.

          5. stickguy

            You live in oklahoma. You should.

      3. njstuckintx

        All the players get a DVD in they stockings this year as a gift/homework. it’s perfect!

      4. stickguy

        considering how low the bar was set recently, he has to be an improvement.

        I somehow can’t imagine Hojo having an instructional video and training blog on hitting. It would be pretty short )”when the pitcher throws the ball, swing as hard as you can”)

        1. TRS86

          From what I have read by him and found out about him he looks like a perfect guy for the Mets, especially for the kids.

        2. njstuckintx

          you forgot to add “make sure you pull the ball as best you can. opposite field is for wusses”.

          1. stickguy

            chicks dig the long ball. and apparently strike outs too.

  12. Mr North Jersey

    Saber People may or may not enjoy this article.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/why-there-is-no-hope-for-the-mets-2010-12

    1. njstuckintx

      I don’t trust nothing coming from a guy named Cork Gaines.

      1. Mr North Jersey

        lol

    2. Ceetar

      poor article. Poor use of fangraphs. Poor way to make an objective point.

      Where are Ike Davis and Angel Pagan and R.A. Dickey on that list?!?

      When are people going to realize that no matter how much money you spend, the $->WAR formula has little correlation to actual success?

      1. Ceetar

        Also, using the most valuable player as a ‘comparison’ from the other league, is just sloppy. It’s unrealistic.

        oh, and you spelt Luis wrong.

      2. Prismo

        Ugh, agreed.

      3. Mr North Jersey

        :-) Please lodge all complaints to CorkGaines@businessinsider.com :-P

        1. Ceetar

          http://twitter.com//RaysIndex

          He’s a Rays guy.

          1. Mr North Jersey

            Yea that where i found his article in the Rays sportspyder feed

  13. stickguy

    wanny mentioned Crawford and his SBs up above. Decided to discuss down here (get more action that way!)

    first of all, I think team speed is a vastly underrated asset to have. But at the same time, SBs are probably overrated (at least a guy with a flashy number is). I also believe in the analysis that says you have to have a certain steal % (was it 75 or 80?) for them to even be a net positive (oops, drifting into saber territory here).

    so, IMO (as is all of this) a guy like wright stealing 30 and getting caught 5 times is potentially more valuable than Reyes stealing 60, but getting caught 25. And especially important is when the bags are swiped (high leverage spots in close games vs. garbage time where it is almost stat padding).

    I do recognize that a speedster can have value even if they aren’t running if it distracts the pitcher, and makes the MIF D cheat.

    anyway, back to Crawford. Another thing I beleive in is that guys tend to steal less as they hit there 30s (unless they are a 1 dimensional guy like say Coleman). and they really start stealing less when they sign that last huge contract.

    Team of course also is a factor (with that sox line up, who has to run), but I would not be at all surprised if crawford starts stealing a lot fewer bags now.

    does this apply to reyes? QUite likely. If you do sign him for a 5 year extension, don’t expect him to be swiping 60+ every year!

    1. Ceetar

      The distraction factor is huge. moves the defense, can unhinge the pitcher (although can distract the batter is well) Every through to first is a potential overthrow and extra base. (Hmm, saber though: Does the conventional 75% success rate factor in that? Errors are _not_ uncommon, 2B misses the ball, catcher over throws, pitcher misses, etc. You get an extra base out of it, so the value of the steal goes up. )

  14. Ceetar

    btw, did you notice that as of right now, 7 of the 9 spots in our lineup will be different on Opening Day than last year?

    http://www.ceetar.com/optimisticmetsfan/2010/12/10/ddl/

    1. Mr North Jersey

      I like how you have Murphy in for Castillo.

      1. Ceetar

        Probably is a toss up if you had to field the team right this second, but I have a feeling if Murphy shows anything in Spring it’ll likely be his job.

        1. stickguy

          put PTBNL in if you want. just ain’t gonna be castillo! I hope.

  15. Mr North Jersey

    Did everyone see this quote from Lennon?

    “The goal is sustained excellence, rather than a crash-and-burn cycle every four years or so, and that’s going to take some patience. How much? Its difficult to say at this point, but Alderson deserves a little time to execute the plan.”

    http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/on-the-mets-beat-1.812057/winter-meetings-post-mortem-alderson-reyes-and-boof-1.2533599

    1. stickguy

      not sure they actually did this recently. 2006-2008 would fall into the broad catagory of “sustained excellence” (really a fancy way of saying you are a playoff contender up until the very end of every season). and 2009-2010 were poor years on the field, but largely injury generated, so not IMO a crash.

      Maybe semantics, but to me a crash would be bottoming out with a team bereft of talent, coming off a close to 100 loss season and probably staring at a couple more at least.

      like the Pirates!

      1. Mr North Jersey

        if 2007 and 2008 is sustained excellence then i dont want it.

        1. Mr North Jersey

          those were epic failures as far as i am concerned.

          1. stickguy

            what do you think sustained excellence means? A dynasty?

            pick a team and use it as an example. Red sox? Yankees? recent Phils (who frankly are totallly primed to have a major crash if they have a couple of ill timed injuryies)?

            maybe the Angels. That is probably a good example.

            like I said, my interpretation is a team that is always picked as a playoff contender, and is normally also in the hunt right until the very end.

            actually, the Braves when they were taking the division every year were probably the best example (considering the yankees an outlier). And the Braves on ly won 1 WS, and went to just a couple more.

          2. Mr North Jersey

            Sorry dude but excellence to me requires actually accomplishing something of a positive nature.

            The Mets in 2007 and 2008 accomplished nothing.

            if you feel otherwise I can respect that but I don’t share your thoughts if so.

            Sustained excellence to me would be like consistently reaching the post season over a period of time not just playing above .500 ball for consecutive seasons only to have nothing to show for it at the end.

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