The Mets signed C Ronny Paulino this week to a one-year deal. On the surface, the move makes a lot of sense. I’ve written about how the Mets need a RH-hitting catcher who hits lefties hard to complement Josh Thole, and Paulino seems to fit the bill. Paulino’s stats vs. LH pitchers since 2006:
| OBP | SLG | ISO | BABIP | BB% | HR | PA | |
| 2006 | .402 | .443 | .104 | .378 | 8.7% | 2 | 127 |
| 2007 | .462 | .593 | .185 | .419 | 8.4% | 5 | 119 |
| 2008 | .308 | .392 | .147 | .241 | 10.3% | 1 | 39 |
| 2009 | .343 | .458 | .168 | .324 | 7.7% | 5 | 143 |
| 2010 | .380 | .516 | .158 | .383 | 4.0% | 3 | 100 |
In general, these numbers strongly suggest that Paulino can in fact hit right-handed pitching. But, the stats do raise a couple of points for concern. First, Paulino’s best seasons have been fueled by unsustainable BABIP’s. Paulino may be good against lefties, but when success is fueled by that high of a BABIP, we should be concerned. And lest you say that Paulino is just “really good against lefties,” I point you to the fact that Albert Pujols has a career .321 BABIP against southpaws.
Plus, there’s also Paulino’s 2008, which shows us both the perils of the small sample size, as well as the variability of BABIP-fueled success. In ’08, Paulino only had 39 PA’s against lefties, in that small sample, his BABIP was only .241. His numbers against southpaws are, as you might imagine, much, much, lower. The difficulty, however, is that it’s hard to ever get enough PA’s against lefties for it not to be a small sample size. This means that if Paulino’s BABIP falls off (and even Albert Pujols had a BABIP “slump” against lefties last year at .248) he’s going to struggle.
His struggles will only be amplified if his walk rate continues its precipitous fall. Plainly, walking 4% of the time just doesn’t cut it. To see what’s happened to Paulino’s plate discipline, we can look at his O-swing% (percent of pitches swung at outside the strike zone), Z-swing% (percent of pitches swung at inside the strike zone, and his Zone% (percent of pitches faced inside the strike zone).
| O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Zone% | |
| 2006 | 17.8% | 75% | 47.1% |
| 2007 | 21.5% | 67% | 56.2% |
| 2008 | 21.5% | 64.7% | 53.4% |
| 2009 | 21.9% | 67.9% | 50.8% |
| 2010 | 24.7% | 65.6% | 46.9% |
The above chart confirms what we might have feared—Paulino has started swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone, and in return, pitchers are throwing him fewer pitches inside the strike zone. If this trend continues, and Paulino suffers a drop in his BABIP, his numbers are going to plummet.
But, this actually wasn’t why I was concerned when I heard about the signing. What concerns me is that Paulino is currently serving a 50-day suspension for testing positive for an illegal substance. Paulino says he took diet pills that unknowingly contained a banned substance. I have no reason not to take him at his word. Although I will note that if Paulino tested positive for amphetamines — the illegal substance most likely to be found in weight control pills – certain kinds of amphetamines can be used as a masking agent for steroids.
More to the point I wondered, how have mlb position players performed coming off suspensions under the testing policy MLB implemented in 2005? Here, I’m using TAv., OBP, and SLG to evaluate.
Player
Matt Lawton: 2005 (pre-suspension): .273/.380/.433 (.287 TAv) (NL stats only)
2006 (post-suspension): .259/.310/.259 (.200 TAv)
Neifi Perez: 2006 (pre-suspension): .254/.266/.343 (.205 TAv)
2006 (post-suspension): .200/.235/.215 (.150 TAv)
Mike Cameron: 2007 (pre-suspension): .242/.328/.431 (.278 TAv)
2008 (post-suspension): .243/.331/.477 (.282 TAv)
Jose Guillen: 2007 (pre-suspension): .290/.353/.460 (.286 TAv)
2008 (post-suspension): .264/.300/.438 (.253 TAv)
Jay Gibbons: 2007 (pre-suspension): .230/.272/.348 (.216 TAv)
DNP in majors next 2 seasons
Eliezer Alfonso: 2007 (pre-suspension): .250/.284/.359 (.208 TAv)
2009 (post-suspension): .175/.197/.254 (.117 TAv)
Manny Ramirez 2008 (pre-suspension, with LA): .396/.489/.743 (.396 TAv)
2009 (pre-suspension): .372/.500/.654
2009 (overall, post-suspension): .290/.418/.531 (.327 TAv)
Save for Manny not the most illustrious offensive group pre or post suspension. The trajectory, however, save for Mike Cameron is clear: players who test positive for illegal substances tend to have some fall-off in their performance once they return.
Clearly, the Mets did not make a significant investment in Paulino, so the risk here is limited. Nonetheless, don’t be surprised if we see Dusty Ryan at Citi Field (who the Mets also signed this week, undoubtedly per my earlier suggestion) as the right-handed part of the catching platoon, before the season is out.
14 comments
stickguy
12/11/2010-5:23pm at 5:23 pm (UTC -4)
he was signed to be the back up catcher. and generally, they suck. But at least he is cheap.
metsfan4decades
12/11/2010-5:32pm at 5:32 pm (UTC -4)
And we can live with ‘suck’ if our primary catcher is decent. Problem is….hard to tell with Thole yet. I don’t think he defense or game calling will be a problem – and according to RA Dickey he was the most comfortable catching his knuckle ball….it’ll be the bat that might be a problem.
Don’t know about you all but I’m tired of looking at the bottom third of the order as a pit. Go Josh!
Ceetar
12/11/2010-5:40pm at 5:40 pm (UTC -4)
Comment…
stickguy
12/11/2010-6:06pm at 6:06 pm (UTC -4)
I am cautiously optomistic that Thole’s bat will hold it’s own.
and with an actual hitter playing 2B, and no more frenchy in RF, 2 more holes eliminated.
guesstimating a lineup (based on the bodies on hand at the moment) your holes are limited:
reyes
pagan
wright
beltran
davis
bay
murphy/turner
Thole.
not much pressure in the 8 hole, and even 7-8 is certainly competitive with the rest of the league I would say.
all up to the big money guys in the 1st 6 spots to actually earn their salaries!
metsfan4decades
12/11/2010-6:12pm at 6:12 pm (UTC -4)
Good point, stick, especially about 1-6.
Ceetar
12/11/2010-10:52pm at 10:52 pm (UTC -4)
kNot that I’m ready to discuss lineups, but I wonder if Terry will be as obsessed with things like breaking up the lefties. Bay probably bats in front of Davis.
stickguy
12/11/2010-10:55pm at 10:55 pm (UTC -4)
certainly too early to set it. Just wanted to put some names down related to the comment about not wanting 4 straight dead spots in the lineup.
I have no idea what Collins will do with balancing lefties, or providing protection. Although if they do platoon 2B and mostly catcher, at this point Ike is the only lefty that will be starting vs. LHP.
metsfan4decades
12/11/2010-5:41pm at 5:41 pm (UTC -4)
Nice title, by the way – MetsFan
metsfan4decades
12/11/2010-5:57pm at 5:57 pm (UTC -4)
Read the highlights and transcript from the Sandy and bloggers conference last night over on AA.
Good stuff…and it appears from the comments that those who did participate were duly impressed with Sandy and optimistic going forward.
Saw your question, Ceetar – right in line with the Optimistic Met Fan. Loved the answer as well. Sounds like if we’re in the hunt at the ASB, Sandy will do everything he can to make sure we can make a run going down the stretch.
oleosmirf
12/11/2010-6:55pm at 6:55 pm (UTC -4)
i have no reason to suspect Thole wont at least match his numbers from last season. also, Murphy will be back and that should give us above average offense from 2B.
wannybackstra
12/11/2010-8:24pm at 8:24 pm (UTC -4)
hard to say anything is unsustainable when it occurred over the course of 4 different seasons. it’s not a short sample in one definite time period. it’s 4 unrelated time periods.
and i wouldn’t draw any conclusions based on a 39 at bat sample of 2008. that’s a sample that is a third to a quarter lower than the other seasons.
and in the aggregate, we’re talking about an entire season worth of regular at bats.
metsfan2011
12/12/2010-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
only 3 of those years had the high BABIP, 2009 had his BABIP in the .320 range and his numbers suffered. And in each of his seasons there’s a small sample size bias. The truth is that if Paulino doesn’t resume walking more, he’s going to struggle.
darknova306
12/11/2010-10:32pm at 10:32 pm (UTC -4)
I like the analysis, but don’t really think it matters unless they were signing him to be an everyday catcher, which they didn’t. He’s going to be a backup and catch maybe twice a week, depending on how Thole holds up, so I don’t think a drop in production is really that significant. I’m more concerned with what he can teach Thole.
Also, taking the pre- and post-suspension numbers for seven players, most of whom were irrelevant at the time of suspension, means little to me.
metsfan2011
12/12/2010-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
fair points, but I’m not sure I’d say Ronny Paulino is especially relevant either. I also think 7 guys is fairly significant given the clear direction the numbers have gone.