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Dec 12

This Day In Mets Infamy With Rusty : The ” Should We Let Angel Get His Wings Elsewhere ?” Edition 12-12-10

" Would the Mets be bold enough to trade Pagan?"

Yeah I know I am going to take a lot of heat for what I am about to suggest, but I think it is what is best for the Mets for the foreseeable future and beyond. No I am not talking about charging thirty dollars for parking ( That’s the Yankee way) or making David Wright become a member of the Pepsi Party Patrol. No I am suggesting that the Mets should trade Angel Pagan before the season starts.

Okay I can sense the hostility towards my idea but lets face it, yes Angel had a ” breakout year ” this past season, but one season doesn’t make one a bonafide everyday outfielder. Yes I know that Angel improved at the plate as well as in the field by leaps and bounds , and that’s why I feel we should try to swing a deal using him as bait for some mid level pitching. We all know that the Tampa Bay Rays have a hole in their outfield now that Carl Crawford has bolted to the Red Sox. So maybe if we dangled Pagan and a mid level prospect such as a Zach Lutz or Fernando Martinez , we can get them to agree to ship us a Matt Garza.

The one thing the Mets have a surplus of right now is minor league outfielders. I feel that Lucas Duda  – who I admit is not a great defensive outfielder but can hit monster shots that would make Dave Kingman take notice.

My other concern is Pagan’s psyche. He seems comfortable at playing all three outfield positions, but he has made it known that he longs to be a everyday center-fielder. It will be hard to get Angel  those starts in center, especially if Carlos Beltran either refuses to move, or shows that his knees can stand up to the daily rigors of patrolling that position.  I am not saying that Pagan would let either his anger or disappointment get in the way of  his offense or his fielding. but there might be a problem if either he or Beltran are unhappy with the position assignments.

I still think that Angel Pagan projects to be a fourth outfielder. This is my opinion – I am not stating it as a fact. I must stress that I am not a sabermetrics guy  but I feel that if Angel plays more than 140 games he will be exposed. So why not take the gamble and see if we can flip him for some thing more of a sure thing.

And with that said… HERE COMES THE INFAMY !!!!

Sadly on this day in 1992, long time Mets pitching coach, Rube Walker passed away. He is generally cited as the man who helped pitchers such as Nolan Ryan and Tug McGraw mature into major league ready pitchers.

New York Mets traded reserve outfielder, Jim Gosger and back up third baseman, Bob Heise to the San Francisco Giants for pitcher, Ray Sadecki and outfielder, Dave Marshall on December 12, 1969.

In one of the most hated trades in Mets history – The New York Mets traded Rusty Staub and minor league pitcher, Bill Laxton to the Detroit Tigers for pitcher, Mickey Lolich and outfielder, Billy Baldwin on December 12, 1975. This trade heralded in the M. Donald Grant salary dump era !

New York Mets traded back up outfielder, Gene Clines to the Texas Rangers for Joe Lovitto on December 12, 1975.

New York Mets traded pitcher, Roy Lee Jackson to the Toronto Blue Jays for utility infielder, Bob Bailor on December 12, 1980.

New York Mets signed free agent catcher, Orlando Mercado of the Minnesota Twins on December 12, 1989.

New York Mets traded one time “5 tool outfielder“, Alex Ochoa to the Minnesota Twins for ” no tool” outfielder, Rich Becker on December 12, 1997.

New York Mets signed free agent second baseman, José Valentin of the Los Angeles Dodgers on December 12, 2005. After the season ending injury to Kaz Matsui, the Mets certainly caught lightening in a jar with the clutch hitting of the second coming of the ‘stache .

New York Mets traded reliever, Scott Schoeneweis to the Arizona Diamondbacks for pitching prospect, Connor Robertson on December 12, 2008.I still feel bad for Schoeneweiss. I felt that he was misused by both Willie and Jerry.

The man who will always be known as Omar’s folly, Ambiorix Burgos granted free agency on December 12, 2008. Yeah I would release a man who was arrested for beating his girlfriend and later on was accused of murdering two women.

And while you are cursing at Mother Nature for delaying the Giants game, just remember YOU SHOULD BE A JETS FAN !! And there are just 110 days until the Mets open the 2011 season against the Florida Marlins in Miami and
117 days until the Mets 2011 home opener against the Washington Nationals at Citi Field.

Mo Vaughn is wondering what a turtle dove is – and if they are edible !!

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88 comments

  1. kingman 26

    I would trade Pagan in a second if we could get anything for him….but a look at his stats in Aug/Sept show that he didn’t really have a breakout year, he had a breakout half a year. He sucked bigtime in Aug/Sept in every offensive category.

    And hey, let’s not annoint Duda as the new Kingman just yet!

    :-)

    1. rustyjr

      trust me – i think he will hit for a better average than skyking lol

      1. kingman 26

        So you are saying he will hit .225??

        LOL!!

        1. rustyjr

          more like .257 lol

        2. stickguy

          hey, Kingman had back to back years with the cubs of 40+ hrs and an average of right around .280. So he was not always that bad.

          and don’t sell Duda short. Best swing on the team at the moment.

          and no, I have not started drinking yet.

          1. kingman 26

            And in 1982 he led the NL in HR with 37 while batting——.204, with a .285 OBP chaser!

            As for Duda, it is time for you to start drinking.

    2. oleosmirf

      he did bat .275 in September/October and it seemed he was coming out of it as he did bat over .300 over the last 3 weeks of the season so I dont think 6 weeks should overshadow the rest of the year where he was batting over .300

      1. kingman 26

        Well, along with that .275 was a .305 OBP (horrible) and a .336 SLG (off the charts horrible).

        5 XBH in 118 PA.

        He was awful in August and September.

        1. oleosmirf

          yes he was terrible in August and terrible in the first half of September however, you are completely ignoring the fact that the last 2-3 weeks of the season he rebounded and batted .310 over that time period. I dont see how 6 weeks of bad play is a better indication of his future than the other 18 weeks of 2010 or in 2009 or even the few AB he had in 2008 and 2007 with the Cubs.

          he has a career line of .285/.335/.435/.770 10 HR 59 RBI and 24 SB with his best 2 seasons coming in his last 2 seasons. I see no indication why we shouldn’t expect at least his career avg in 2011. Compare him to Shane Victorino and their career numbers are quite similar once you consider park factors.

          1. kingman 26

            Sorry, but comparing him to Victorino makes little sense—Victorino has been an everyday player for five years.

            And over that last 2–3 weeks it could not have been a more hollow .310. He walked 4 times and had 5 XBH the entire month.

          2. oleosmirf

            well thats not Pagan’s fault is it? When Pagan has played he has played like an everyday player and Im not gonna trade him for a short-term fix b/c of a 6 week period where he played terribly.

            2 seasons is enough to show that Pagan is not a 4th OF, he is a starting MLB CF who just happens to be playing RF b/c of Beltran being on the Mets until August 1st. After that Pagan will move back to CF.

  2. metsfan4decades

    I can’t see, not now at any rate. The very fact that he can play all 3 OF positions, the depth is of the minor league variety and the question marks concerning Beltran’s health, is the very reason I don’t see it happening.

    Yes, he prefers CF but I’ve heard nothing from Pagan to suggest he’d be unhappy starting in RF. Besides…..there’s a very good chance he does play CF, especially as the season progress, if Beltran isn’t the Beltran of old.

    I have no idea what will happen come the trade dealine, or at ’11 seasons end but I’m willing to bet Pagan will be the starting RF come Opening Day.

  3. oleosmirf

    if for some reason we could get Garza for a package of Pagan and no-one named Niese, Davis, Mejia, Flores, Havens, Harvey, Thole then I will certainly make that move although unfortuantely Rusty, i don’t see how that would be enough to get him.

    1. rustyjr

      I used Garza as a example – theres also shields buhrle and other good mid level pitcher os the market that we can shop Angel for

      1. oleosmirf

        Buerhle makes 14 mil this year and 15 mil in 2012 so that obviously isnt happening and after last season Shields isnt even worth Pagan.

        I really think Chris Young is the best option b/c if he is healthy he probably gives us the similar production to Pelfrey

        1. rustyjr

          Yeah but I still feel that Gee might not be ready to be the fifth starter – understand about Buhrle – I was just throwing out names

          1. oleosmirf

            the 5th SP is irrelevant really. If Gee or whoever wins the job in ST can give us an ERA under 5 and keep us in games, thats all that matters.

          2. rustyjr

            we are also banking that dickey pelf and Neise are all pitching well also

          3. oleosmirf

            you cant trade an above average MLB and controllable CF who has found some success as a Met for a pitcher that is marginally better than what is on the FA list.

          4. rustyjr

            Look – I dint want to see him go – but if he has the most trade value – I’m just pitting it out there

          5. oleosmirf

            i understand that but trading just to make a trade is not good management

          6. stickguy

            even if Gee is ready and primed to be a fine #5 this year, they still don’t have a #4. or anything passing for depth.

  4. stickguy

    Obviously I am on your side Rusty, since I was getting flogged for this a couple months ago.

    Only if the deal is really too good to pass up.

    And I think he would be a great 4th OF.

    and if you look at the numbers, overall he was much more productive offensively in 2009. Maybe D was more consistant (from getting FT work most liely) but he broke out with the bat in 2009, ans as Knog noted, had a couple really crappy months to tank his numbers in 2010.

    1. oleosmirf

      let’s say Pagan regresses a bit and puts up .275/.325/.740 with 6-10 HR 30 SB and plus plus defense. That’s still above average for CF and considering he is relatively cheap there is no reason to move him unless, as you mentioned, the deal is too good to pass up.

      1. rustyjr

        But if he can net you a middle tier pitcher wouldn’t you do it ? especially when you have a Duda , Evans, or a F-MART THAT could plug that hole ?

        1. oleosmirf

          no I would not b/c I dont believe the trade makes any difference in 2011 and hurts us in 2012.

    2. kingman 26

      Geez Stick, I have a little extra time on my hands this Sunday morning, so checked out that other place—what a joke!

      It is like some of Metsblog and the Star Ledger’s most ridiculous commenters started their own blog!

      1. stickguy

        you should have seen the chat going on last night in the shoutbox.

      2. metsfan4decades

        Read that debate as well. Gee….some Met fans are so high up on their judgmental horse I don’t know how they see the ground from way up there….

    3. oleosmirf

      a few crappy months is not true at all. he had a really bad 6 weeks from August 2nd to Sept 13th. considering he batted .311 in the months before and .310 in the few weeks after so its much more reasonable to believe that it was just a cold streak

      1. kingman 26

        No Oleo, he had a really bad August and a really bad September. Three really crappy months as April sucked too. May and July were excellent and June was good.

        August: .231 /.257 /.315

        September: .274 /.305 /.336

        And check out the game logs. Both months all of the numbers went down from the first of the month to the end of the month.

        Again, his final overall numbers regressed to be pretty much precisely his career norms.

        1. oleosmirf

          look at his gamelogs more closely he had a really bad first 2 weeks of September. He batted over .300 for the other 2 weeks. As for April he was only a part time player as he only made 5 starts in the first 2 weeks of the season. (remember GMJ?). After becoming the everyday CF on April 17th he put up a line of .280/.368/.440/.808 for the rest of the month which is pretty damn good if you ask me.

          1. rustyjr

            And like i said – we have of depth – so why not see what he could net us

          2. oleosmirf

            you dont trade our starting CF for a short-term fix in the rotation. If you can get someone like Garza for package including Pagan thats a different story but Pagan straight up for a #3 SP is just a horrible decision and one Sandy would never make…

          3. rustyjr

            Pagan will more than likely be the rfer I’m just saying it’s worth exploring

  5. wannybackstra

    pagan for garza?

    in a heartbeat.

    1. kingman 26

      Yeah, but that would never happen without adding 2-3 prospects I would think.

  6. Ceetar

    No.

  7. Mr North Jersey

    Hmm trade Pagan? Why does that sound familiar? ;-)

    1. kingman 26

      You were right the first time you said it, and you are right now.

      1. oleosmirf

        so you really think Lucas Duda/Nick Evans/F-Mart and James Shields or whomever you think Pagan can get us will yield more wins than Angel Pagan and Chris Young/Jeff Francis/Kevin Millwood/Rich Harden/Brandon Webb/Freddy Garcia or whomever else Sandy brings in as the 4th SP.

        come on you cant really believe that.

        1. Mr North Jersey

          I think the point was can you get a player/players back for Pagan that can help the team down the road as opposed to in 2011?

          1. rustyjr

            thankyou !

          2. oleosmirf

            i understand Rusty’s point but Kingman’s is Pagan was a fluke so trade him now at his highest value and i vehemently disagree with trading just to trade.

            unless we can acquire a #1 or #2 SP, i do not wish to trade any important pieces regardless as them being controllable past 2011 is of no importance to me.

          3. oleosmirf

            i mean it doesnt hurt to look but trading your starting CF for 2012 for a middle of the rotation SP is an impossible sell and luckily Sandy wont be thinking that. Unless you can get a #2 SP like Garza (sorry not gonna happen without Mejia), then its not worth trading him.

            The Mets best chance is not trade anyone, sign a risk-reward guy like Young as the #4 SP and if it doesnt work out, hope that either the prospects or the minor league deal guys can step up and be productive. Then see where we are in July, what prospects are ready and work from there.

          4. stickguy

            I’m not really worried about him for 2012.

          5. stickguy

            that is the question.

            If you are getting a mediocre SP only signed for 1 year, don’t bother.

            If you can trade him for someone like garza that they need now and who can also be a part of the next 2-3 years after, then sure do it.

            ideally you will have a strong enough team where he can be a top shelf 4th OF. And on this team, with Bay and Beltran (and potentially Duda/evans/other young guy) you need a 4th OF that can really play every day, just in different spots.

          6. oleosmirf

            I agree on 100% on Garza but a mediocre pitcher signed cheaply for 1 year is no different to me then one signed cheaply for 3 years.

            the mets have no need for a mediocre SP once this season ends as Santana will be back in 2012 and Mejia should be the #5 SP as well.

          7. stickguy

            mediocre guys to fill out rotation spots until you find someone better should always be on 1 year deals.

        2. kingman 26

          If Pagan could be traded even up for James Shields?

          Yes, I would do that, and pretty quickly.

          Sorry Oleo, but Pagan has not proven he is a productive everyday player in my mind, and he is very replaceable.

          1. stickguy

            he is harder to replace as a CF, but very easy as a corner guy. So partly it depends on how comfortable you are with Beltran as your primary CF, and whatever BU CF you will find.

            and while he might have a few less miles on him then some guys, he still turns 30 in the middle of next season, so not a spring chicken (compared to a lot of guys at his relative career point, who would be 26ish).

            so if you are projecting toward 2012 and 2013 you are talking about a 31-32 YO CF with an escalating salary.

            now, if they had 3 stud OFs and he could be an excellent 4th, great.

            Even greater could be getting a nice 2-3 SP under control for the next 3 seasons.

            the mets got OFs in the minors. They don’t have much SP.

          2. oleosmirf

            lol if you’re gonna trade Pagan can we do it for someone who didnt suck last season. why trade Pagan when I can sign Kevin Millwood whom had pretty much identical numbers last season.

  8. stickguy

    also, say they do trade pagan for a SP (#3ish). Wonderful.

    But IMO they should still try to get young on a reasonable deal to really beef up the rotation, add depth and some injury protection.

    pelf/neise/dickey/new guy/young with Gee, bosner, and maybe another reclaimation veteran in AAA is a lot of depth. Plus you have the potential of Santana at some point.

    It does not qualify as a problem if all 5 stay solid, gee has to spend a year in AAA developing, and they have a dilemma if santana comes back.

    so get 2 guys and go from there.

    1. oleosmirf

      trading Pagan for a #3 SP doesn’t fit Sandy’s plan at all. I understand you all want the best possible team we can have now but having 8 SP in 2012 and two rookie OF is not what the plan is. the plan next offseason is to replace Beltran internally (if a prospect is ready) and acquire a bonafide #1/2 SP next offseason.

      that way you have Santana. #2, Pelfrey, Niese and either Dickey (should he be for real) or Mejia/Harvey/Gee etc. rounding out the rotation with Pagan in CF along with a prospect like Duda/Kirk/F-Mart in RF.

      1. stickguy

        you can never go wrong having more good SPs than you think you need, since you always need them. and if you somehow really do, like the rays at the moment, it is a tremendous trade chip.

        for 2012, I would not count on Mejia, and certainly not to be any more than a #5 option. harvey not a chance should be up after 1 year in the minors. and Gee, have to see if he is more than a #5.

        those 3 guys in the system is not going to stop me from getting a solid proven guy like Garza.

        1. oleosmirf

          it should not prevent you from trading for Garza, but it should prevent you from trading for guys that arent top of the order guys.

          1. oleosmirf

            *top of the rotation

  9. kingman 26

    LET’S GO DOLPHINS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. stickguy

      stone hands cornerback!

  10. rustyjr

    Look what I started lol where is the voice of reason – TRS when you need him lol

    1. TRS86

      Not sure I can help here as I also think Pagan is a starting CF and has proved that. Using a 6 week period instead of his overall body of work is just plain cheating to me.

      1. stickguy

        you have any idea where his 2010 #s (~.750 OPS) puts him on the list of CFs? I guess being a premium defensive position you have to factor that in. So I guess I just asked for WAR?

        He does have to play CF to really be a no brainer starter. Playing a corner, his offense is far from top drawer.

        I still say he is the perfect 4th OF on a good team.

        1. TRS86

          His CF WAR is in the top 5. Yes his value is much higher in CF than RF. However, I don’t see how it is relative for 2011 at all. It’s either him in RF and Beltran in CF or him in CF and Beltran in RF. To me as far as offense it does not matter where he plays defense. I understand in a perfect world you want your RF to hit for more power, however Pagan would only be your RF because Beltran would not move or uh… I have no idea. Honestly we have more of a chance of having a SP ready right now than having a CF replacement for Beltran in 2012. To me unless you really can get a top of the rotation starter, it makes no sense to trade him. It’s not like you have a RF that would be any better and with Beltran’s defense an OF of Bay, Beltran and Duda/Evans would be of comical nature.

          1. oleosmirf

            SP might be our weakness in 2011 but it should be a big strength in 2012. thats the one thing most Mets fans fail to grasp…

          2. stickguy

            having a full year of healthy productive santana for a change (assuming you ever see either one of them again) will certainly go a long way toward that.

            but unless Gee proves to be for real, I don’t see the improvement. I am not counting on Mejia being a serious rotation option even by 2012.

  11. oleosmirf

    including defense Pagan was the #1 CF in the NL (2nd CF in MLB and 21st overall) in WAR. oWAR he finished 6th for NL CF in oWAR.
    Pagan was the 10th most valuable player in the NL last season.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2010-value-batting.shtml

    1. rustyjr

      Look it was just a suggestion – nothingness nothing more

      1. oleosmirf

        not directed at you Rusty…

    2. stickguy

      well, shouldn’t this mean that teams will be beating down the mets door trying to trade for him?

      and given the multiple needs, it could be the best option to make the team better. Hence the original suggestion.

      1. rustyjr

        Agreed

      2. TRS86

        Possible, yet just like some on here, some are still waiting for him to prove even more. Also, his age his a hindrance as he is not a prospect anymore but yet not completely proven yet either.

        Again, I would have no problem trading him IF we could net top of the rotation pitching AND we have a clue who will replace Beltran either this year or for sure next.

        1. stickguy

          age is a problem here. and that has to be tied into when you think the mets will be serious playoff contenders. 2011? 2012?

          unlike a guy like Rasmus who is 23/24, you do have a relatively short window with Pagan, if he ages like a normal CF. But, maybe playing so (relatively) little for so many years will keep him productive longer out there?

        2. rustyjr

          It would take more than Pagan – but he would be the cornerstone of such a deal

          1. TRS86

            I just don’t see it. Keep in mind that he only has about one year of team control left as well. That’s not getting you top of the rotation pitching.

          2. rustyjr

            I understand your point btw since I can’t bake twitter posts heyman announced the likely mets coaching staff – can u post it ?

          3. TRS86

            Done, still don’t see how you have not mastered that one. LOL.

          4. Mr North Jersey

            actually he was following directions but on his pc it really just doesnt take properly.

          5. TRS86

            Weird.

          6. Mr North Jersey

            agreed

          7. Mr North Jersey

            if i hadnt seen it i would not had believed it myself

          8. Mr North Jersey

            I though we agreed that you could just report the tweet adding a link to it instead?

          9. rustyjr

            On my cell – not near a pc

          10. Mr North Jersey

            lol i used 2 hav 1 of those

  12. stickguy

    Well, in the battle of the Bloggers, it is kingman over Mr. NJ at the meadowlands today.

    man, what a terrible game when the MVP on the day is a punter.

    1. njstuckintx

      Just take solace in the Steelers. They make you feel wonderful.

  13. njstuckintx

    And as to Pagan… Would I trade him? In a second, depending on what you are trading him for. That last sentence is basically a given, but assuming it’s bringing back pitching, then I’m all cool with it. Pagan is the the 3rd/4th OF guy, so its not like losing him is the end of the world. Yes, he is good, but for the betterment of the whole, I’d trade him.

    1. stickguy

      “the betterment of the whole” (team). Key to any move, especially initially unpopular ones.

  14. stickguy

    god darned cowboys letting me down. And I never though I would actually be rooting for that team to win a game.

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