I have to begin this post by mentioning that I’m really tired of losing to Philly in all sports. Sunday’s Giants game felt eerily the same as ’07 and ’08 felt.
And of course, the game took place the same week that Philly’s “other” sports team signed Cliff Lee. Is the season already over? No, not yet. But Pelfrey/Niese/Dickey just doesn’t quite measure up to Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Oswalt.
In my mind, the Mets need at least two more starting pitchers. Yes, Dillon Gee has promise, but even our top 3 guys are question marks and some stability is needed.
The rumor mill says the Mets are interested in both Jeff Francis and Chris Young. They are two once-established starters who have seen their careers derailed by the injury bug. I think the gut reaction of most Mets fans is that Young, as a pitcher who thrived in the Citi-Field-esque Petco Park is, health permitting, the better fit.
But, as Mets fans know all too well, you can have the greatest talent in the world, but it’s meaningless if you can’t stay healthy. So, is it possible to evaluate whether Francis or Young is more likely to succeed post-injuries?
Let’s take a look at a couple of different metrics. First, let’s compare Young and Francis’ velocity over the last few seasons: Young mainly throws a fastball, slider and change up and here is his average velocity for each pitch from 2007-2010:
| Year | Fastball | Slider | Change |
| 2007 | 90.3 | 81.2 | 79.9 |
| 2008 | 87.6 | 79.2 | 78.8 |
| 2009 | 85.8 | 76.9 | 77.4 |
| 2010 | 84.7 | 75.1 | 79.8 |
Those are dramatic drops in the velocity for both his fastball and his slider. I’m not aware of any non-knuckleball throwing right handed pitchers who have success throwing as slow as Young was during his brief 2010 stint or even during 2009.
In contrast, here are Francis’ numbers, he throws mainly a fastball, curveball and change :
| Year | Fastball | Curve | Change |
| 2007 | 88.4 | 72.7 | 80.4 |
| 2008 | 87.7 | 71.0 | 80.0 |
| 2010 | 87.9 | 71.9 | 81.4 |
Francis appears to have retained most of his pre-injury velocity, if not yet the pre-injury results. At the very least, however, the above numbers have to give the Mets pause that injuries have caused a pretty dramatic deterioration in Young’s stuff.
There also may be more upside in getting Francis who has pitched his home games in a hitter’s park. To demonstrate, let’s look at Young and Francis’ home/road splits from 2007, the last season both guys were healthy, this time comparing their respective BABIPs, K’s per 9 innings and ERA:
| BABIP (home/away) | K/9 (home/away) | ERA (home/away) | |
| Francis | .334/.304 | 6.61/7.22 | 4.20/4.24 |
| Young | .230/.273 | 8.12/9.24 | 1.69/4.52 |
Young clearly shows an enormous home/road split. Francis less so on ERA, but that seems to be fueled by luck given his much lower BABIP and higher K/9. Young also has a really low BABIP, which, as a reminder, is a red flag for regression. And remember, this was a Chris Young who threw significantly harder.
I should also note that in 2010 Francis had a 5.00 ERA, but his SIERA was only 4.08. And, as I’ve written about previously, SIERA is an excellent predictor of next year’s ERA. Therefore, if both Young and Francis are options, I’d definitely go with Francis.
Like I said, however, I think the Mets really need two starters. Next time, I’ll look at the best of the rest.
57 comments
stickguy
12/20/2010-10:08am at 10:08 am (UTC -4)
francis pitched more last year, if you want to count that as credit toward being helathy for 2011! Plus he is a lefty, still a valuable trait in the NL East. So given all the factors, I pick him.
and at leasat 1 more guy that can reasonably be considered a ML quality starter, even if it is on a MiL invite deal (like Garcia was).
njstuckintx
12/20/2010-10:14am at 10:14 am (UTC -4)
I’d say Young, based on K-rates. I know you don’t need a high K-rate to be effective in Citi, but when in doubt, higher K-rate is prefered. Plus he’s YOUNGer. Couldn’t resist.
oleosmirf
12/20/2010-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
Young was better when healthy and only gave up 2 runs in 4 starts last season (3 of which came in Sept/Oct so he is healthy).
stickguy
12/20/2010-11:57am at 11:57 am (UTC -4)
not sure I am going to put too much faith into 4 starts (5 innings each) where he was being babied. Not quite sure that translates into being ready for a FT rotation gig, and 6+ for 30 starts!
kistics
12/20/2010-12:24pm at 12:24 pm (UTC -4)
agreed
oleosmirf
12/20/2010-12:45pm at 12:45 pm (UTC -4)
but its promising. If he falls apart so be it, but we need someone who can potentially be a #1-3 SP, not a #4 SP.
kistics
12/20/2010-12:56pm at 12:56 pm (UTC -4)
I think both Francis and Young have the potential to be #2-3 SP if healthy. But I’m not sure if 84-85 mph fastball would get it done. I know it’s not all about the velocity, but it’s hard not to ignore.
stickguy
12/20/2010-12:59pm at 12:59 pm (UTC -4)
right now, the Mets just need something passing for reliable/solid/hold the fort. If that means a #3 (and I still hate the slotting system!) then fine by me.
I don’t expect another Santana. I also don’t want Lima Time redux.
The Mets aren’t likely to compete (even for the WC) by the rotation carrying the team on it’s back. The Offense is going to have to stay helathy and produce finally, with the pitching just reliably keeping them in games (IOW, pitch like they did last year overall). And the 3 guys + Francis even is a pretty good bet to do that.
Ideally, they sign 2 boring but OK or better guys so Gee can stay in AAA as depth. Francis + Millwood, something like that.
Pelf, Neise, Dickey, Francis, Millwood is not quite as “sexy” as what some other teams roll out, but if they stay healthy (and there is only 1 injury risk guy in the bunch), they can be perfectly adequate to keep the team competitive.
If you can’t start an Ace every 5th day, at least try to balance it out by not starting a total black hole either!
metsfan2011
12/20/2010-1:07pm at 1:07 pm (UTC -4)
no way young can be a 1-3 starter if he’s in the mid 80′s with his fastball. Unless he’s going to start throwing a knuckleball.
kistics
12/20/2010-12:03pm at 12:03 pm (UTC -4)
Very interesting… but wasn’t Francis looking for more money than Young?
stickguy
12/20/2010-12:40pm at 12:40 pm (UTC -4)
it is getting to the point where looking for and getting start to diverge.
the Mets at least offer a potentially good team (at least offensively!) and a pretty much guaranteed rotation spot.
metsfan2011
12/20/2010-1:05pm at 1:05 pm (UTC -4)
that’s possible–but a 1 year $ 4 mil contract for Francis seems reasonable to me. In fact, I think it’s something of a steal.
kistics
12/20/2010-1:21pm at 1:21 pm (UTC -4)
I think Francis wanted $4-5M guaranteed plus incentives vs Young’s $1.5M guaranteed plus incentives.
stickguy
12/20/2010-1:05pm at 1:05 pm (UTC -4)
Interesting fact about the 2010 mets (the team that actually had an overall solid rotation, where Santana still only managed to win 11 games).
the 2 whipping boys of the opening day rotation (OLlie and Maine) made fully 10% of the Met starts last year (with obviously dismal results).
even if you have to downgrade from Johan to someone else (Francis?), if you can offset that 10% with guys that might actually pitch well, the net impact of missing the ace might not be as noticable (over the season at least, if not opening day!)
and that 10% jumps to 17% if you add in the starts for such non-ML quality SPs as Neive, Valdes, Mejia (and a couple others that are too painful to even remember, but not including Gee).
IMO, for all the angst over missing an Ace, I think the benefit of actually ML quality depth is really overlooked.
metsfan2011
12/20/2010-1:06pm at 1:06 pm (UTC -4)
agree with the macro point but I would say we also have to consider that Dickey/Pelf/Niese may not be as effective as they were last year. Nonetheless, anyone half decent would be better than Ollie.
stickguy
12/20/2010-1:12pm at 1:12 pm (UTC -4)
Well, we also have to consider that they will be better this year. And given their relative ages and expereince levels, and what they did last year, I am willing to bet that they will do better (or at least there is a bette rchance than they regress).
If you want to start playing the what if game, isn’t there a better chance that SPs in their early 30s, with a history of back problems, aren’t going to replaicte career years next year? And yes, that is Oswalt and Lee I am talking about.
not trying to pick on you, but it does get tiring to read constantly how the Mets players are all huge question marks and risks that are expected to decline next year, but all the other teams should expect their players to be 100% healthy and get better next year (and never have an age related decline).
oleosmirf
12/20/2010-1:28pm at 1:28 pm (UTC -4)
Pelfrey, Niese and Dickey is much more riskier than the Phillies rotation no matter what angle you take.
metsfan4decades
12/20/2010-1:08pm at 1:08 pm (UTC -4)
I would be satisfied with either one of them, if they were the second pitcher signed after Garza. I’m not holding my breath on getting Garza but with all the surprises this off season – FA signings and trades alike, anything is possible. The Royals were supposedly looking for a king’s ransom for Greinke and look what they settled on. I’m not saying those 4 prospects are crap but I’m thinking maybe only 1 of the 4 is of the ‘can’t miss’ variety.
Gorzelanny is another pitcher I’m thinking deserves some discussion on acquiring. I agree 100% that not only do the Mets not have a full starting 5, they’ve got very little depth at all. I would like to see some combo of 8 SPs between the rotation, minor leagues and long man/sport starter out of the BP. (and that’s 8 not including Mejia).
I’m being patient but I’m getting a little worried that the clock is running with this off season.
stickguy
12/20/2010-1:15pm at 1:15 pm (UTC -4)
If they can get Gorzo relatively cheap (prospect wise), I am all for that. He does have some upside, and the added benefit of being able to pitch out of the pen. And he is pretty young, and not injured.
Gorzo + a FA would also be fine by me, although who knows, maybe the Mets look at Gorzo as just another Misch?
njstuckintx
12/20/2010-1:36pm at 1:36 pm (UTC -4)
It’s posts like this (not a reflection on the poster, but the content) that makes me think we are redefining the phrase “scraping the bottom of the barrel”…
stickguy
12/20/2010-2:12pm at 2:12 pm (UTC -4)
ya do what ya gotta do Does it make you feel any better that the Yankees are scraping around for Prior and Garcia?
Look, the Mets have a 2 time Cy Young winner making ace money, and 3 other guys that have had solid ML years and have upside. Minor detail of course that the Ace is out for a while!
so, they are looking for essentially a #5 starter, and a mid-rotation guy to hold down the fort. THe #5 may be internal (whoever wins the job in ST), and the mid-level guy (Frnacis?) is still being worked on.
Unless you are the Yankees, you probably don’t sign 2 guys to huge ace-like deals. And before you say Phils, they are paying Hallady ace-lite money (love those favorite team discounts), Houston is still subsidizing Oswalt, and Lee is making less in 2011 than Ollie (yes, that hurts).
The moral of this story? Develop your own stud pitchers!
metsfan4decades
12/20/2010-5:04pm at 5:04 pm (UTC -4)
Well, I guess it’s up for debate what scraping the bottom of the barrel is this year…
We’re not getting an ace, we have to have a starting 5 plus depth. Creative is gonna take on a whole new meaning this year….
stickguy
12/20/2010-6:01pm at 6:01 pm (UTC -4)
well, if there has to be a bright side, at least we won’t have to suffer through Jerry trying to manage the pitching staff!
oleosmirf
12/20/2010-1:38pm at 1:38 pm (UTC -4)
Gorzelanny and Young would be fine but not very realistic.
kistics
12/20/2010-1:38pm at 1:38 pm (UTC -4)
I’m not sure if I’m making the right comparison here, but ’06 team did not really have a clear ace either. Both Trachsel and Glavine won 15 games, but they weren’t exactly lights out pitchers. Pedro was once again injured.
I think if everyone is healthy on offense and bullpen, they can pick up some slack from SPs and be competitive.
oleosmirf
12/20/2010-1:56pm at 1:56 pm (UTC -4)
well the 06 Mets put up some nasty offensive numbers. 3 players with 114+ RBI, 4 .300+ hitters (1 a catcher), 18 HR from 2B. 5 starters with an ERA under 5 (2 of which were under 4) and a bullpen with 6 guys with an ERA under 4 (4 of which under 3).
so if Beltran, Wright and Bay all get 100+ RBI, Reyes, Thole and Pagan also bat .300, we get 20 HR out of 2B and we have a nasty bullpen then yes we can win the division with a rotation like that.
kistics
12/20/2010-1:59pm at 1:59 pm (UTC -4)
Not saying that 2011 Mets will match what they did in ’06. But even with below average rotation (which the Mets will have regardless of who they sign), they can be competitive by having good offense and bullpen.
oleosmirf
12/20/2010-2:09pm at 2:09 pm (UTC -4)
every SP we have every reliever outside of K-Rod and Carrasco and every hitter besides Wright and Pagan are question marks.
the team is so volatile this season that anything can really happen, which is why money is not being spent…
stickguy
12/20/2010-2:14pm at 2:14 pm (UTC -4)
based on this logic, isn’t damned near every player in the league a question mark?
oleosmirf
12/20/2010-2:46pm at 2:46 pm (UTC -4)
not true, I dont consider Howard, Utley, Rollins, Polanco, Victorino, Ruiz question marks. Ibanez and RF the only question marks for them in their lineup.
they have 5 SP that are guarantees. there only issue is the bullpen but i would consider Durbin and Madson guarantees…
kistics
12/20/2010-2:53pm at 2:53 pm (UTC -4)
Utley has a hip issue and also missed couple months with the wrist(?) injury
Rollins spent a long time on DL as well
Ibanez is 39(?) and had back issues
Not saying that the Mets are going to be better than the Phillies, but they have their share of question marks too.
stickguy
12/20/2010-2:56pm at 2:56 pm (UTC -4)
Kyle Kendirik is a guarantee? Ultey and Howard are both the wrong side of 30, and declined last year. Both got hurt, and Utley especially seems to be breaking down. And we all know how 2B in their 30s age!
rollins is hurt all the tiem, and kind of sucks when he isn’t.
palanco, vicky and Ruiz are just guys on the team, who knows what they do. And Ruiz had a career year at 30 (will a catcher do it again?). Palanco is old too.
Hey, this “guess the question mark” is fun!
and remember the rule, no pitcher is guaranteed to do anything.
the dirty philly secret though is that the pitching carried them most of last year, and in the playoffs it was the offense that spit the bit.
kistics
12/20/2010-1:40pm at 1:40 pm (UTC -4)
Freddy Garcia would fall under ‘reclamation project’ too although he’s shown that he can stay somewhat healthy in 2010. Probably would cost more.
njstuckintx
12/20/2010-1:57pm at 1:57 pm (UTC -4)
I think I read he’s looking for Garland type money.
kistics
12/20/2010-2:00pm at 2:00 pm (UTC -4)
Gees….
Prismo
12/20/2010-2:13pm at 2:13 pm (UTC -4)
Not sure.
Young clearly had the higher upside, call it a “solid #2″ if you will. But he barely pitched last season, and hasn’t been healthy for an entire season since 2007. However, he’s asking for much less than Francis.
Francis has less upside, maybe “decent #3.” He pitched most of last season, so maybe we can expect more innings from him? He’s asking for a lot more money..
I think I’d go for Young – mainly because I’m not sure signing a #3 helps the Mets that much this season, but having a #2 just might. Plus, he’s cheaper, so Sandy and the Wilpons will like that.
stickguy
12/20/2010-2:16pm at 2:16 pm (UTC -4)
not sure there are too many “solid #2″ RH SPs with 84 MPH FBs.
Given Francis is probably a slightly better health risk, and a lefty, I still think he has more potential benefit to the team this year.
Prismo
12/20/2010-2:20pm at 2:20 pm (UTC -4)
Uhh…the Mets had one last season. His name is R.A. Dickey.
stickguy
12/20/2010-2:43pm at 2:43 pm (UTC -4)
yeah, I thought of him as soon as I posted this. I just figured everyone would assume I was talking about a “normal” pitcher!
kistics
12/20/2010-2:48pm at 2:48 pm (UTC -4)
Young does not throw knuckleballs….
Prismo
12/20/2010-2:52pm at 2:52 pm (UTC -4)
Maybe Dickey can teach him! Dickey didn’t learn until he was in his 30s, right? :p
kistics
12/20/2010-2:56pm at 2:56 pm (UTC -4)
I understand your points on Young, but I agree with stick that it’s pretty tough to be #2 or even #3 or 4 (or on trs’ term ‘mid-rotation’) when you throw 84-85mph fastball and 80 mph changeup.
Prismo
12/20/2010-2:57pm at 2:57 pm (UTC -4)
You guys are probably right.
kistics
12/20/2010-3:16pm at 3:16 pm (UTC -4)
LOL.. no you are probably right…
Prismo
12/20/2010-6:48pm at 6:48 pm (UTC -4)
Jeez! I admit being wrong, and then you go and admit to being wrong too. Let’s just agree that none of us know anything!
oleosmirf
12/20/2010-2:56pm at 2:56 pm (UTC -4)
then how do you explain how in his last 3 starts, he only gave up 2 runs and 9 hits???
granted he was on a pitch count which cut him off around 5 innings but for someone throwing 85 mph, he certainly was economical with his pitches. certainly on pace to go over 6 innings every start by the time he reached 100…
stickguy
12/20/2010-3:08pm at 3:08 pm (UTC -4)
luck, small sample size, etc.
he pitched at AZ (crappy team) that probably didn’t have a clue what to expect from him. Then against St. louis with a 1.5 whip. Then 2 games at home in petco.
and overall, he walked guys at an ollie-esque pace of 5 per 9.
actually, for a small end of september sample, remarkabley similar #s to Dillon Gee!
metsfan2011
12/20/2010-4:50pm at 4:50 pm (UTC -4)
that’s only true because of their respective ballparks. Francis actually has the higher upside if he can be free from Coors.
Ceetar
12/20/2010-4:53pm at 4:53 pm (UTC -4)
I wish we all could be free of Coors and drink good beer.
wannybackstra
12/20/2010-6:02pm at 6:02 pm (UTC -4)
I copied this from ESPN NY for those who think the Mets have a chance at being competitive this season. The Mets may have the worst rotation in the division:
Mets
Pelfrey
Jon Niese
R.A. Dickey
Dillon Gee
Boof Bonser or Pat Misch
Atlanta Braves
Tim Hudson
Derek Lowe
Jair Jurrjens
Tommy Hanson
Mike Minor or Brandon Beachy
Florida Marlins
Johnson
Ricky Nolasco
Javier Vazquez
Anibal Sanchez
Chris Volstad
Philadelphia Phillies
Halladay
Cliff Lee
Roy Oswalt
Cole Hamels
Joe Blanton
Washington Nationals
Livan Hernandez
Jordan Zimmermann
John Lannan
Jason Marquis
Yunesky Maya or Ross Detwiler
metsfan4decades
12/21/2010-12:29am at 12:29 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, I saw that earlier too. On paper, we’re not looking too good.
But…..
- we don’t really know what are starting 5 are for opening day…yet.
- on paper doesn’t always translate to what actually is played out. That’s the beauty of watching the season unfold. Or the horror, if you’ve been a Met fan these past couple of years.
- pitching was our weakness on paper going into 2010. Didn’t wind up being the real problem though when all was said and done.
And for those that rightly want to jump on my comments, I’m only pointing out that ‘on paper’ vs. reality at end of the season sometimes turns out to be entirely different. I’m realistic enough to know right now, our pitching really kind of sucks…..
stickguy
12/21/2010-1:01am at 1:01 am (UTC -4)
that’s why they play the games. if the paper was that accurate, 90% of the pre season predictions every year wouldn’t be wrong!
Remember, I was one of the few before last season that said the rotation would actually be a strength of the team. Although in spirit of full disclosure, I did not predict how incredibly inept the offense would be for much of the year!
last year people were fixated on how Ollie and maine weren’t good enough, and would drag down the rotation. My answer was, if they suck, they wouldn’t be in the rotation for long. And that is what ended up happening. So very likely, the rotation that starts the season will again look a lot different later in the year.
will it be good enough? maybe not. But there will be stretches like last year where the “established” guys will be on a roll and it will look fine, and certainly some rough patches.
Just have to hope the offense channels some latent 2006 memories and carries the team when the SP isn’t pitching shutouts every game!
Ceetar
12/21/2010-9:10am at 9:10 am (UTC -4)
The Nationals? no, mostly unproven, or completely sucky. Livan and Marquis will give them very little. Lannan is their ace, and a decent pitcher, but nothing special.
The Marlins? Johnson is top of the line, but the other guys are all sub-par except Anibal, who has a problem staying healthy.
Braves? Can Hudson stay healthy? Can Hanson continue to improve? I do like Jurrgens but he wasn’t that good last year. Lowe is getting up there in age..certainly looks good, but it’s definitely no sure thing.
The Mets only have three st arters right now, and penciling in the next guys on the depth chart for next season is just silly. Misch and Bonser are not gonig to be starting, and Gee very likely won’t either. The other three are above average.
metsfan2011
12/21/2010-10:43am at 10:43 am (UTC -4)
I would not call Nolasco sub-par. He has been a little unlucky due in part to the Marlins poor defense but I would rather have him than anyone on the Mets save possibly Pelf.
Ceetar
12/21/2010-10:54am at 10:54 am (UTC -4)
well, he’s still on the Marlins. (Good job by them though, spending more money without improving the team)
He was subpar last year. *shrug* not saying he’s bad, but I’d take any of the Mets three pitchers over him. His home run rate went up a lot last year too, which I guess is the cause of his ERA jump mainly, but who knows if that was luck or not.
Prismo
12/20/2010-6:47pm at 6:47 pm (UTC -4)
I dunno, Mets and Nats are maybe tied for worst.
oleosmirf
12/21/2010-8:30am at 8:30 am (UTC -4)
if Pelf, Niese and Dickey can all have ERAs under 3.75 and the other 2 guys can have ERAs under 4.50, that will be good enough iff our offensive stars produce like they should and our bullpen is above average