With so little going on at the moment with moves from the Mets, it is interesting to read various blogs to get a feel for the expectations of the fans (or at least the radical fringe that like to post comments at this time of year!) So, what have I learned from all this exhaustive research?
- Sandy is a do nothing moneyballing small market has been (that honeymoon didn’t even last through the plane ride home from Vegas).
- The Mets are the Pirates because they did not spend another $20million so far this off season.
- The FO keeps us in the loop to a shocking degree as to what the plan is, which is wonderful except for the fact that they are lying to us about rebuilding. And everything else.
- Some long time die-hards are losing their faith.
- And finally, 2011 has already been deemed a total loss, and the FO isn’t even making a vague attempt to compete. 90 losses is practically a given.
In the spirit of the season, to all this I say Bah Humbug! What happened to the essential nature of a fan, especially a Met fan, hope? The off season is supposed to be a time to squinting really hard, and looking for the silver lining, and convincing yourself that next year just might be the one.
It seems that the biggest bone of contention is that the 2011 team will be the “same”, and that the FO is doing nothing. Well, given that Omar basically locked in the 2011 payroll before 2010, it was a given that the team was pretty much built as a 2 year group, with Sandy inheriting year 2. No matter who the GM was right now, there were only going to be 2 real choices. 1st, plug holes and rebuild the supporting cast as best as possible on a tight budget and see what happens. 2nd, truly become the pirates and trade everybody possible that made any money, and go into full rebuild mode.
Oh, there was the 3rd option of find a pile of cash someone forgot about and raise the payroll to $165million like the Phillies, but that one seemed like a non-starter!
It seems pretty clear that they picked door #1 Monty, so the question then becomes, is there a Zonk waiting, or a 1971 Vega? Oh wait, same thing. Make that a possible playoff contending team. And my opinion is that yes, they are (or will be) once the team is finished being assembled (and contrary to popular opinion, you don’t have to finalize the opening day roster before Christmas).
No, I am not predicting they will cruise to the division title, or breeze into the playoffs. I do think that they will be in the hunt up to the end of the year, and win 10%+ more games, based on a few factors:
- The perceived incompetence factor of Jerry (running the team) and Omar (putting the right team in place) has been removed.
- The team on the field (other than Johan) should be vastly better. Just having Beltran and Reyes in ST and starting the season will be a vast improvement. 1B and RF should also start with better players, and even 2B and C should be upgrades.
- Ollie and Maine were in the opening day rotation, and made 10% of the total starts last year. Just not suffering through those 16 dismal performances should help offset not having Johan.
Overall, the 79 win 2010 squad was a horribly managed and poorly assembled team that couldn’t overcome some key injuries and established star players having sub-par years. And my version of realistic is looking at the upside potential (not just all the potential negatives). If they can finally get focused to prepare and play like a professional team (Collins), with a logically constructed bench (Alderson), and guys simply stay healthy and perform to expectations (Beltran, Bay, Reyes), the Mets will be running out one of the best teams in the league on a daily basis. If the pitching can just replicate last year and simply keep the team in the game most nights, they have the potential to win a lot more games than many people are predicting.
I know the last few years have been frustrating, but have some hope that the new regime means past mistakes are just that, in the past, and that the talent on the roster (and there is a lot of it) finally comes through and finishes the deal. And overall, this years team should be able to win more games than the 2007 and 2008 teams which were both still alive for the playoffs going into game 162.
So remember, when Citi field is jumping in September for a Mets playoff push, you heard it here first.
97 comments
wannybackstra
12/22/2010-1:47pm at 1:47 pm (UTC -4)
Though there are many counter arguments to your optimistic points which I don’t feel like listing — or debating — here, i will say that your points are based in reason and I hope that you are right.
I just don’t see this pitching staff being able to compete for a multitude of reasons.
stickguy
12/22/2010-2:08pm at 2:08 pm (UTC -4)
well, that’s why you debate. 2 sides to eveyr issue.
My real intent was to point out that there is a possibility of something good happening (even lost in last years silliness, there were some surprising bright spots). Not a guarantee, just a reasonable scenerio for it to happen.
Also, last year most people figured the offense would be OK and the pitching would sink the team. Turned out to be the exact opposite. So, ya never know!
Prismo
12/22/2010-1:47pm at 1:47 pm (UTC -4)
Nice post Stick. What I would like to see are some links to these blogs, so I don’t have to take your word for it.
stickguy
12/22/2010-2:05pm at 2:05 pm (UTC -4)
you posted at one this morning. And there is always MMO, home of the old codgers that think we should go back to the 1940s, when they played “real” baseball and advanced stats had not been invented.
and wht do you expect? Apparently this piece was written by an anonymous yellow Lab! I do need to figure out this profile stuff (graphics, etc.)
Ceetar
12/22/2010-2:22pm at 2:22 pm (UTC -4)
Well, Ollie had at leaset 2 good starts and 1 mediocre one. Maine had 3-4 quality starts. so 9/16 were bad, and i’m hoping the 4th/5th guys improve on that this year.
Having the team professionally managed, and the roster professionally managed (I have no idea if this is the case. Last year there seemed to be a ton of ‘braintrust’ decisions about roster moves that I can’t decipher if they were all Omar, or him being overruled by Jerry and others. Jerry definitely had too much input.) Not playing crap like Frenchy when he’s crap. Putting guys on the DL if they need it (guys will still occasionally get 2-3 days of limbo time, but hopefully the half-assed Reyes from teh wrong side stuff will stop) promoting minor leaguers that are performing well, even if it’s just riding out a hot streak and redemoting them. etc.
If this group managed the 2010 team I think they’d easily win at least a couple more games. Given that 75% of our starting position players will be different (and imo, better) should be a big boon.
kistics
12/22/2010-2:39pm at 2:39 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed. Jacobs/Cat would not have batted 4th in the lineup let alone make the team out of ST. GMJ would not have started at CF over Pagan.
79 wins could easily have been 82-83 wins.
Ceetar
12/22/2010-3:00pm at 3:00 pm (UTC -4)
not that it was a completely horrible gamble to take a flyer on the guy, but I don’t think GMJ would’ve even been here.
stickguy
12/22/2010-3:13pm at 3:13 pm (UTC -4)
GMing is really a results based business. You can defend moves all you want, but if they blow up on you, you take the fall.
same for what logically was a dumbass move. If it somehow works (truly beating the odds) and the team wins the WS, just get hailed as a genius.
Ceetar
12/22/2010-3:28pm at 3:28 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, I think we discussed it last week, the JJ Putz trade, and how bad it ended up being results wise, but it’s still a trade that was probably one you’d make again.
This actually ties into my K-Rod argument. While he’s overpaid at 17.5 million in 2012, I’d rather have K-Rod than take my chances that that 14million is going to be reinvested in a way that will make the team better without him.
stickguy
12/22/2010-3:11pm at 3:11 pm (UTC -4)
See how easy the math is once you start working on it?
79 was really 83 once you adjust for normalizing. So Reyes + Beltran to start the season, no jerry, Sandy at the deadline instead of Omar, carry the 2, multiply by Pi, and you get a 10% win increase.
83×1.1 = 91.
so boom, Mets are a playoff competing team at around 90 wins.
Hey, you said it, not me, I just did the match for ya!
kistics
12/22/2010-4:06pm at 4:06 pm (UTC -4)
I guess you can always work backwards.. 83×0.9 = 75.. =D
kingman 26
12/22/2010-3:37pm at 3:37 pm (UTC -4)
Well, nice piece, and thanks for using my word positiviality. Anyway, I think it’s mine.
But still, a lot of grasping here.
No matter what anyone says, while Jerry was mediocre in-game and terrible at motivating players, he really cannot be held totally responsible for what was simply a weak, out of shape, lazy, soft, apathetic group. We will see if Collins is able to beat some sense into them this spring.
And the pitching—without Johan and with what we have now, it may be somewhat worse than last year. We need Pelf/Dickey/Niese to be at least as good as 2009, then we have what to replace Johan and be 5th starter?
And the everyday players—this is not 2007—are Beltran/Wright/Bay AND Jose all going to return to past form? My guess is that two of them at most will.
And people can pretend that Pagan is a top 10 MLB outfielder, but he’s not. Not even close. I really hope people can tell me how wrong I am come August or so, but I doubt it.
I love the team and will be watching; if Collins has them hustling, I will be thrilled, even if we are in fact a 3rd or 4th place team again, which is very likely.
Stick, please continue posting.
stickguy
12/22/2010-4:24pm at 4:24 pm (UTC -4)
pretty sure I coined that one, but that was back in the days of the float (don’t forget to dust that once in a while before the mice start nesting in it) so who knows.
and damn man, I was sure I was just getting a +1000 out of you! I even made sure there were no typos.
And I will agree that the projection would be easier with johan, but hell, Francis or Young only has to replace 11 wins!
and lets just leave it as “that’s why they make you play the games” each year.
kingman 26
12/22/2010-4:32pm at 4:32 pm (UTC -4)
Oh, it IS +1000! Sorry, I forgot to type that! Busy day…..
The Float is in great shape; when it is needed we will root out the mice, stray cats, etc., scrape off the rust, moss, and barnacles, and be ready for the ride of a lifetime!
Seriously, fine post, and it really is most excellent to have you join our fraternity of authors.
I still want to know why the hell you and Mr N subject yourself to MMO though!
I cannot believe I commented on FWICG.com for the first time in two years. Even if it was just to say hi to Prismo, Salty, and Kistics, to promote Rusty, and to laugh at someone whose avatar is Palin in 2012.
hazmet
12/22/2010-6:56pm at 6:56 pm (UTC -4)
I can’t believe our peeps here are “flocking” to post on “that” site, even as a novelty. Random thought, the military / congress has repealed don’t ask don’t tell before MC opened up his blog to the masses. Just a random context as Myopic Matt opens his mind, or, is feeling the pressure, maybe, from, Sandy & crew, to open back up the site to all. And yes, I, purposely used, 6 comma’s in that last sentence in an effort to one day ascend to Cerrone’s all time use of 10-12 in one sentence.
stickguy
12/22/2010-8:00pm at 8:00 pm (UTC -4)
…
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…
…
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metsfan4decades
12/22/2010-9:11pm at 9:11 pm (UTC -4)
LOL…..
Just reading over there the past couple of years, it was generally the same posters over and over. That told me that MC, who was the only one reviewing the ‘auditioning’ posters, just never got around to it.
And for some, reading the comments today, after trying to post forever just stopped going there as often. So I wonder if his site’s hits were declining?
metsfan4decades
12/22/2010-3:44pm at 3:44 pm (UTC -4)
My first car back in the day was a mid 70s Vega. What a piece of you-know-what. The Mets can’t possibly be that bad this year.
Good post. For those that don’t think realism can mix with optimism, I think your post did just that.
Prismo
12/22/2010-4:09pm at 4:09 pm (UTC -4)
“What a piece of Ollie!”
kingman 26
12/22/2010-4:32pm at 4:32 pm (UTC -4)
HAHA!!!!!!!!!!!
oleosmirf
12/22/2010-4:08pm at 4:08 pm (UTC -4)
I think making the playoffs is possible but will involve so many things that haven’t happened in the past few years to happen this year.
If every single one of our key position players plays to their career averages, good Pelf shows up, Dickey keeps going strong, Niese continues to get better and the bullpen can do a decent job, i see no reason why we cant make the playoffs.
That said, given how things have been in the past few years, i cant see it happening.
stickguy
12/22/2010-4:21pm at 4:21 pm (UTC -4)
I think you just made my points for me. First, what happened last year is not guaranteed (or in some cases likely) to happen the same way again.
but mostly, nothing you mentioned is at all radical, inconceivable, or irrational. A couple of young developing (and talented) pitchers improving a little bit? A couple guys just doing the same as they did last year? Cobbling together a halfway decent BP?
Isn’t that basic stuff that every team expects and banks on (and need to happen to have a winning season)?
and, expecting 3-4 guys that are all multiple time all stars, previous top-10 finishers in the MVP race, and highly paid as a result to have normal career type years? That sure as hell isn’t asking for too much, especially since none of them are really that old (at most, on the tail end of peak perfromance years).
I honestly think after the last few years that fans have just been conditioned to imagine the absolute worst things that can happen, then expect about double that bad.
If nothing else, these guys have a lot to prove (especially the key cogs playing for another big payday, and the young guys trying to prove they deserve to stick). I just don’t see any culture (if it really existed in a way that impacted the results) of lazy, sloppy, indifference, etc. surviiving into next season.
and if it does, and the team stinks on the field (especially if helthy), for sure it will get blown up, big time.
oleosmirf
12/22/2010-5:34pm at 5:34 pm (UTC -4)
of course its possible but the all that happening this year is hard to believe b/c of what has gone on the past few years.
stickguy
12/22/2010-5:38pm at 5:38 pm (UTC -4)
to hell with that. law of averages says we are due!
darknova306
12/22/2010-9:04pm at 9:04 pm (UTC -4)
“these guys have a lot to prove”
I said that exact line after the 2007 season ended. So much for ‘something to prove’ being enough motivation.
kistics
12/22/2010-4:22pm at 4:22 pm (UTC -4)
If I had to put a number on it, there is probably less than 30% chance that the Mets make the playoffs. However, I think there’s more than 50% chance that they will be playing meaningful games in Aug/Sep. And at this point, that’s all we can hope for this season.
stickguy
12/22/2010-4:27pm at 4:27 pm (UTC -4)
seems fair enough. Even if you say 25%, that is still more than a hell of a lot of other teams can probably say!
I will take the 50% chance too. Still better to be in the mix on game 162 than eliminated in August. Better to win game 162 of course.
But, I also never considered the Bills to be a failure for losing 4 straight SBs. You know how hard it is to make it to the championship even back to back years?
Ceetar
12/22/2010-4:30pm at 4:30 pm (UTC -4)
Sandy is on record as saying he’d have flexibility around the trading deadline and that he loves to make trades. so if you think there is a good chance they’re competitive, their is a good chance Sandy’s gonna do what it takes to keep us there. (Also, Santana back for the stretch run? niiiiice)
stickguy
12/22/2010-4:34pm at 4:34 pm (UTC -4)
that will be nice to see for a change. As long as he is smart enough not to sign a declining 2B to a 4 year deal after he picks him up for the stretch run.
oleosmirf
12/22/2010-7:52pm at 7:52 pm (UTC -4)
it also depends how they are playing and how the competition is playing. just being x number of games behind a team is not a true measure of a team’s future success.
kingman 26
12/22/2010-4:34pm at 4:34 pm (UTC -4)
Michael Baron likes Rusty!! LOL, check the below out!
kingman26 [Moderator] 55 minutes ago
Seriously, check out this site—every day Rusty has a cool post with events from that specific day in Met history.
Michael Baron liked this
Mr North Jersey
12/22/2010-4:48pm at 4:48 pm (UTC -4)
Nice!!!
metsfan4decades
12/22/2010-6:15pm at 6:15 pm (UTC -4)
Very nice, Rusty.
Can I say now – ‘I knew him back when’?
I used to go looking for Rusty’s ‘this day in infamy’ in all the daily posts back in the day on FWICG.com. It’s a fine tradition now.
gategem
12/22/2010-6:45pm at 6:45 pm (UTC -4)
For some reason those that are excessively positive believe that their perspective is the only definition of a fan and tend to be narrow minded with very little tolerance for other points of view. They are quick to personally attack people they don’t agree with. I believe such a definition of a fan is extremely narrow minded and since fan is short for fanatic it can be excessively positive, negative or somewhere in-between. It would be a dull internet experience if everyone had the same viewpoint with their heads up their rear.
Is it probable that the Mets will contend this year? The answer is a resounding no. Is it possible the Mets will contend this year? The answer is a definite yes. Personally I’m just hoping the ball club will be entertaining.
TRS86
12/22/2010-6:59pm at 6:59 pm (UTC -4)
I bet Kingman would not agree with Patrick here. And before I say this, while I don’t always agree with him I do like his work.
5. Angel Pagan, outfielder – Now has 1,009 plate appearances over the past two years that say, “Hey! I’m really awesome at just about everything.” One of the ten or eleven best outfielders in baseball, and a worthy successor to Carlos Beltran in center field. Pagan is arbitration eligible for the next two seasons, but probably won’t make too much because his skill set is varied and undervalued.
kingman 26
12/22/2010-8:52pm at 8:52 pm (UTC -4)
Well, I don’t think Pagan sucks, but I do honestly feel that saying he is one of the 10 or 11 best outfielders in baseball–based on a good partial season in 2009 and 3 good months in 2010–is just plain ridiculous.
It’s the close relative to how stats were used to suggest that Jason Bay was “defensively challenged” before 2010. We heard that everywhere; it just isn’t true.
I mean, look at Pagan–played his first full year at age 29, and overall his numbers were OK.
After a great couple of months he regressed to career norms—and you know what the funniest part is—his MINOR league numbers were just about the same!
Hey, I was dead wrong about Dickey and dead wrong when I thought Jerry was responsible for the May/June resurgence last year—but I am also right a lot of the time.
“Hey! I’m really awesome at just about everything.”
His BA is nothing close to awesome. His OBP is nothing close to awesome. His SLG and hence his OPS are nothing close to awesome.
37 SB in 151 games? Awesome? Uh, no.
He’s a very good outfielder—is he AWESOME in the field?
Much ado about very, very little.
TRS86
12/22/2010-9:03pm at 9:03 pm (UTC -4)
Those WAR people would disagree. So perhaps, we can call it a push and consider ourselves lucky to have him.
kingman 26
12/22/2010-9:12pm at 9:12 pm (UTC -4)
Oh, I definitely feel he is valuable.
I just think he’s nowhere near a top 10 MLB OF.
Not that there’s anything wrong with that…..
TRS86
12/22/2010-9:20pm at 9:20 pm (UTC -4)
I think I am learning this WAR stat that has actually been around for a long time. I like the fact that it does factor in defensive value and to me makes it a stat to at least consider.
Prismo
12/22/2010-9:04pm at 9:04 pm (UTC -4)
37SB is very good, good enough for 8th out of all outfielders in the majors last season. I’d say 8th most SB for a position (really, 3 positions) is pretty excellent.
But otherwise, I generally agree with you. He is an above average player, but saying he’s top 11 of all outfielders is a major stretch.
His monthly splits tell an interesting story though. His OPS from April 27th through August 8th was .896 (.384 OBP, .512 SLG), which is superb! However, from August 10th through the end of the season, his OPS was only .602!
That’s two completely different players, one superb, one GMJish. Which one is the real Angel? If we could get the better Angel for a larger chunk of the season, he’d be huge for the team. But having the crappy Angel for two full months just kills the lineup.
Prismo
12/22/2010-9:07pm at 9:07 pm (UTC -4)
I swear, I have the hardest time coming up with a good post to make, then I make a comment that would be a great base for a post and don’t even realize it until it’s too late. Ah well.
kingman 26
12/22/2010-9:11pm at 9:11 pm (UTC -4)
That’s my whole point—-Pagan’s career lines for BA/OBP/SLG are remarkably consistent—in the minors, in the majors; half season, whole season.
He’s a good player. Not an “awesome” one.
Is 37 SB “awesome”??
No.
TRS86
12/22/2010-9:18pm at 9:18 pm (UTC -4)
Again, factoring in offense and defense (which is what WAR does) he was rated very high for his SEASON of work.
TRS86
12/22/2010-9:18pm at 9:18 pm (UTC -4)
I try to look at his 125 games instead of 25 or his 150 games instead of 25.
Imagine what his WAR would have been if he had kept those stats all year instead of having what amounts to about a one month slump.
Prismo
12/22/2010-9:25pm at 9:25 pm (UTC -4)
It’s much closer to a 2-month slump. I also didn’t mention his first 3 1/2 weeks of play (.577 OPS). So if you want to take on his start and end-of-season slumps, it’s about 2.5+ months of terrible offensive output, compared to a little less than 3.5 months of excellent offensive output.
You can’t really just cancel that out and say “what if it didn’t happen” – it’s a large chunk of the season.
TRS86
12/22/2010-10:01pm at 10:01 pm (UTC -4)
Right so why not use the entire body of work instead of a small sample size?
Also you can’t say it was a 2 month slump when the last 28 days he hit .321, he just had little to no power during that time.
He has been on the Mets for 1,000 AB’s so to me it would be much more fair to judge him based on that work than less than 10% of those.
stickguy
12/22/2010-10:06pm at 10:06 pm (UTC -4)
consistency is one limitation of some of the saber stats, and I assume WAR is one of them. It looks at his overall numbers, but not how he accumulated them.
so, subjectively, is that stat the same no matter who you got there? at an extreme, guy 1 is the same every month. Guy 2 is fantastic for 3, terrible for 3, but averages to the same result?
is there any way to tell which is better?
TRS86
12/22/2010-10:15pm at 10:15 pm (UTC -4)
Not really but my thing is that all season stats do the same. So unless we are college professors and throwing out your best and worst scores then it really does not matter. Should we also only count Wright’s .225 .286 .392 .678 August line?
kingman 26
12/22/2010-10:44pm at 10:44 pm (UTC -4)
Sure; at the same time let’s compare Pagan and Wright’s 2006–2009.
And their minor league records.
And the age at which they became everyday players.
TRS86
12/22/2010-10:51pm at 10:51 pm (UTC -4)
Not the point. I am saying that we should use Pagan’s 1000 AB’s with the Mets as more of a judge than 25-50.
kistics
12/22/2010-11:03pm at 11:03 pm (UTC -4)
You cannot just look at offensive numbers for Pagan. He’s much more valuable defensively.
TRS86
12/22/2010-11:06pm at 11:06 pm (UTC -4)
Seems pretty rational to me to think that his 950 ab’s with the Mets are more telling than the 50.
Really it boils down to once really bad 40AB’s where he was 5/40 from Aug 10th- 19th.
stickguy
12/22/2010-11:22pm at 11:22 pm (UTC -4)
if you want to cherry pick, over his last 40 games in 2010, Beltran put up something in the neighborhood of a .950OPS.
shows how bad he was for a while when he first came back.
TRS86
12/22/2010-11:33pm at 11:33 pm (UTC -4)
Right the entire discussion is cherry picking. I continue to say that you should use his 1,000 AB’s instead of his 50.
stickguy
12/22/2010-9:07pm at 9:07 pm (UTC -4)
I still think Pagan is a fantastic 4th OF. especially when it means you have 3 better ones.
and like I have said before, with the current group, the Mets really need to have a 4 man rotation (which I guess is just another way of saying 4 starting quality OFs). Beltran will need judicious rest. Pagan does not hit LHP nearly as well as RHP. Bay, depends on how well he rebounds, but he ain’t no spring chicken, and should get some spots with a LH partner.
oleosmirf
12/23/2010-8:42am at 8:42 am (UTC -4)
he’s also a very good CF when healthy…
since 2007, Pagan has batted .290/.339/.441/.780 with plus defense + speed. The only reason Pagan was never an everyday player was b/c of injuries and his poor baseball IQ, which was not a problem at all last season so that should no longer be an issue.
This idea that some have that he is not an everyday MLB player is quite ridiculous….
hazmet
12/22/2010-7:00pm at 7:00 pm (UTC -4)
In other Mets news,
hazmet
12/22/2010-7:01pm at 7:01 pm (UTC -4)
insert sound of crickets chirping
metsfan4decades
12/22/2010-7:27pm at 7:27 pm (UTC -4)
or paint drying.
I think most are now in the ‘holiday’ frame of mind. I’ll be surprised if we see much across the board during the next week or so.
njstuckintx
12/22/2010-8:25pm at 8:25 pm (UTC -4)
my guess is jan 4th.
darknova306
12/22/2010-9:28pm at 9:28 pm (UTC -4)
I do have hope that past mistakes are in the past and won’t be repeated. That doesn’t mean I have to believe this year will see the team in playoff contention. 2011 is in no way about competing for a playoff spot in my opinion. It’s about how fast Johan comes back and how much he is further diminished as a pitcher, how much progression/regression the young guys show, what level of health/production the recently injured players show, and what kind of manager and motivator Collins will be.
And honestly, how much do you really expect out of a rotation of Pelfrey, Dickey, Niese, ?, ?…
TRS86
12/22/2010-10:02pm at 10:02 pm (UTC -4)
You are right that the end result is not about being in the playoffs for 2011 but I think his point is that it is not out of the question.
stickguy
12/22/2010-10:08pm at 10:08 pm (UTC -4)
based on long stretches of last season, I expect quite a bit out of those 3. More worried about what the other 2 are going to bring to the table.
njstuckintx
12/22/2010-10:57pm at 10:57 pm (UTC -4)
By the way, love the Living Color reference.
Look in my eyes
What do you see.
Cult of Personality.
Ask not what your country can do for you…
kistics
12/22/2010-11:02pm at 11:02 pm (UTC -4)
Where did this Pagan stuff come from?
I think when you are talking about him as top 10-11 best OF, you also have to consider his value on defense. He has plus arm and plus speed in the outfield (Okay he doesn’t go back on the ball as well). Not to mention the fact that he can play all 3 positions superbly well. I know it’s hard to put numbers to his defensive abilities, but his last season UZR is slightly below Ichiro’s. That has to add a lot of value for Pagan when considering top 10-11 OFs.
No he’s not Beltran in his prime, but he’s no 4th outfielder either. If he’s playing for the Yankees, he would be the starting LF over Gardner.
TRS86
12/22/2010-11:09pm at 11:09 pm (UTC -4)
I think the debate comes because in a fantasy world his value is as a CF instead of a RF. However, if he and Beltran are both on the Mets it really is a moot point value wise.
kistics
12/22/2010-11:13pm at 11:13 pm (UTC -4)
His value would be much higher if he’s a CF instead of RF. Based on last season’s numbers, I would put him in top 5 CF in baseball.
kistics
12/22/2010-11:18pm at 11:18 pm (UTC -4)
well.. probably not top 5… but definitely top 10.
not just looking at offense but defense and on base paths as well.
TRS86
12/22/2010-11:31pm at 11:31 pm (UTC -4)
But again on the team his value to the METS with Beltran on the team is the same regardless. Obviously I would rather him play CF but it’s not like he is less valuable to the Mets if he is in RF. On a FA market yes, but considering he is on the Mets and it’s either Beltran and Pagan or Pagan and Beltran the value is ultimately the same.
stickguy
12/22/2010-11:37pm at 11:37 pm (UTC -4)
and even if they end up with CB in CF and pagan in RF, they will still have one of the top CFs in the game when beltran is getting a rest.
metsfan4decades
12/23/2010-12:34am at 12:34 am (UTC -4)
This is a good point. How many teams have a replacement CF the caliber of Pagan? I’m willing to bet very few – reason being that most times those of Pagan’s ilk are usually a starting OF, not a 4th OF. Really depends on what team he’d be a starting OF for.
I looked at Victorino’s overall offensive line for 2010 vs. Pagan’s. IMO, Pagan appeared to have a better year. And if I’m not mistaken, Victorino won a Gold Glove in CF these past two years. Again, IMO Pagan’s defense, while not as good as Beltran’s, is certainly as good as Victorinos.
So if Victorino is considered a starting OF, why wouldn’t Pagan also be considered one? I’m not saying he’d be a star but depending on the surrounding lineup, he could be considered an asset as an everyday OF for many teams.
stickguy
12/23/2010-12:42am at 12:42 am (UTC -4)
and considering he is turning 30, a reason that many people feel that he is a prime trade chip, if they can get back a good return.
kistics
12/23/2010-8:51am at 8:51 am (UTC -4)
I looked at Vicky’s numbers too. I believe Pagan has more steals and higher OPS than Vicky. And defensively, they are very comparable.
Ceetar
12/23/2010-9:15am at 9:15 am (UTC -4)
babip suggests Vicky got a little unlucky last year, but surprisingly, his career babip is .301, whereas Pagan’s is around .330. Suggests to me that Pagan hits the ball better. usually speed guys (Even Castillo has a high number) have an above average BABIP.
Actually, it looks like Shane may have ‘adjusted’ his swing for CBP, because he did hit 18 home runs last year, a big increase. Either that or maybe he dogs it and doesn’t run hard/beat out singles.
oleosmirf
12/23/2010-9:32am at 9:32 am (UTC -4)
Victorino hit something like 75% of his HR at home last season…
kistics
12/23/2010-9:46am at 9:46 am (UTC -4)
So if Vicky plays for a team like the Mets/Giants/Padres (teams with big ball parks), he will just be an average CF in terms of his offensive production.
stickguy
12/23/2010-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
Vicky was very good at riding the big guys coattails, and parlaying a few big hits into a reputation. It also must be easier to hit in a lineup that is otherwise stacked, and you become the relative weak link.
metsfan4decades
12/23/2010-12:44am at 12:44 am (UTC -4)
The entertainment of the evening has to be reading the comments over on FWICG.com from old time posters I remember back in the day who can finally get in over there.
For those that use to frequent his blog, do you remember the poster who used to constantly put ideas out there for videos games centered around the Mets – one who didn’t exactly have a good command of the English language? Well, he’s back……check this out, compliments of Krusty the Klown:
oke! well heres mi idea errybody!! NOW REMEEBER ITS MY IDEAI! (AND MATT MAYBE YOU COULD BRING THIS UP AT A MEETING IN THE SNY STUDIOS??)
wouldnat it be so cool for a video game/ caled “U R TERRY AND TERRY IS U?”
its liiek ien the game u r urslef like in erddyday life but thn u become terry in the baseball world/??? get whta im saying?
herez an exampel of a mission
(getz a phone call)
U – Hi
JOSE – hi
U – who is thes it sounds like jose reyes
Jose – it is jose reyes
U – Oh, HI
JOSE – Hi terry i;m gona be late today’
U – HUH?
JOSE – ok sorry
U – o Rite im Terry Collins
(then u scrambell like n egg to citi
jusyt stuf like that
MY IDEAL
stickguy
12/23/2010-12:49am at 12:49 am (UTC -4)
I think I would have to drink for an hour or two to understand this missive.
kistics
12/23/2010-8:55am at 8:55 am (UTC -4)
its liiek ien the game u r urslef like in erddyday life but thn u become terry in the baseball world/??? get whta im saying?
huh???
metsfan4decades
12/23/2010-1:31am at 1:31 am (UTC -4)
According to MLBTR, there are 10 teams that have actually spent less than the Mets so far this off season.
But….take Reyes’ 11MM option out of that mix we then fall to #25 out of the 30 teams.
kistics
12/23/2010-8:55am at 8:55 am (UTC -4)
Fire Sandy!
oleosmirf
12/23/2010-9:05am at 9:05 am (UTC -4)
even if they had the money, I dont think the Mets should spend money until we know what we have on the team first. besides Wright, K-Rod and Pagan i think everyone on the team has serious question marks around them. I think going into the season with this team (plus short term pitching help) is the best course of action.
by the time June 15th comes around, every single one of those question marks should be answered and we can go from there…
Ceetar
12/23/2010-9:10am at 9:10 am (UTC -4)
And there will be a billion more question marks. You can make raesonable assumptions about just about everyone. Davis and Thole aside as you can’t really predict growth and advancement .(and Gee if he starts)
The biggest question mark is probably Beltran’s health, and while to me he seems pretty healthy atm, you never know if that’ll actually hold up. But OF prospects seem to be what we have in abundance, and getting a corner outfield bat is probably one of the easier acquisitions.
So sign pitchers. sign pitchers that are good. There are plenty of spots to put them. short term, long term, bullpen, swing guys, specialists, trade bait, whatever you can find. I mean, only spend money on good pitchers, not crap shoot guys, but you gotta pay them something to get them here.
oleosmirf
12/23/2010-9:27am at 9:27 am (UTC -4)
not really. the question mark around Beltran is not health but production. He will have injury problems the rest of career, the question is how will that damaged knee affect him over a 2-3 month period.
by June 15th, the question marks surrounding Bay, Beltran, Reyes, 2B, Pelfrey, Dickey and even Pagan will be answered. We should also have a good idea on the progression of Davis, Niese, Thole and Parnell. You cant make definite assumptions on the young guys but you will know whether they are having a soph. slump or not…
kistics
12/23/2010-9:42am at 9:42 am (UTC -4)
The thing about acquiring SPs is there are no ‘Front of the rotation’ type of pitchers available via FA after 2011 season.
So the only way the Mets are getting a legit ace is trading for them giving them contract extensions. But do the Mets have enough chips to get a pitcher like that? Or do they even want to come to the Mets? It could be tough getting another Johan trade.
Ceetar
12/23/2010-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
Don’t need an Ace, just pitchers that are going to win games. if you have 5 good pitchers, you’ll win more games than you lose, and your offense will put you over the top on the average games.
oleosmirf
12/23/2010-10:09am at 10:09 am (UTC -4)
I think next offseason our chances of getting a top SP are extremely high. the FA list isnt that good (Edwin Jackson, Mark Buerhle, Wandy Rodriguez, CJ Wilson) but Darvish is supposed to be available and the trade market should be active as usual.
Zack Greinke, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Francisco Liriano, John Danks, Shaun Marcum, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Sanchez, Jeremy Guthrie, Joe Saunders, and Anibal Sanchez are all potential FAs 2 years from now so some of them could be trade options like what we did for Santana.
stickguy
12/23/2010-10:15am at 10:15 am (UTC -4)
I agree. And pumping the dead salary clearing into Darvish is a very interesting option.
Best chance of finding an ace (other than of course drafting one) is to collect as much younger SP talent as possible, and have one of them click and really take off.
Look at it this way. It is cheaper to trade for a Cliff Lee before he has the breakout season (and in his case, that spring there were discussions about him maybe getting cut) than it is to pay him after he has done it. Cheaper, but harder!
kistics
12/23/2010-10:34am at 10:34 am (UTC -4)
I don’t know if Darvish is a good idea. Dice K was supposed to be #2 type of pitcher with tough mental make up. I just can’t trust pitchers coming from Japan to be successful in MLB.
stickguy
12/23/2010-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
If some of the more intriguing younger prospects take a step up, the Mets will have plenty of tradable chips. That is the benefit to keeping the farm largely intact for a couple of years like this, it lets the talent get closer to the show, which should make it more valuable (assuming, of course, they don’t prove to suck!)
Or you get a guy ready to replace an incumbent on the big club, freeing that guy up for trade.
And I agree with Ceetar, they really need solid mid-upper type guys (in the slotting lingo, a 2-3 say). Garza fits this bill. as do lots of other guys.
“aces” are just too rare, and expensive. IMO, better to get 2 #2s for the price of 1- #1.
and I also think you win more games with 5 #s, then with an ace, 2 3s and a pair of fill in the blank #5s.
Ceetar
12/23/2010-10:29am at 10:29 am (UTC -4)
Ace’s are almost always over paid. Solid “middle” guys are almost always underpaid because they’re usually prospects that step up or that kind of thing. For instance, you get two throw-ins in trades that win 15 games. You’ve got a young prospect/rookie that can contribute and an aging legend that’s still a draw. if you want to take that rotation to the next level, why not sign the best pitcher in the game? That has to make the rotation one of the best in the game right?
Really, anything can happen. no move is 100% perfect. who knows. get lots of good pitchers, and they’re easier to replace when they hurt. The Mets don’t look that bad in 2011, but imagine if they had Johan’s 25million to spend on the rotation taht’s missign him?
oleosmirf
12/23/2010-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
most teams (even the 90+ win teams) have a no-name 5th SP or someone who hovers around a 5.00 ERA.
you can get into the playoffs without an ace but in order to go deep you need to have that guy who can win 2 games each series almost on cue…
Ceetar
12/23/2010-10:45am at 10:45 am (UTC -4)
Even Ace’s don’t always do that. And honestly, I have faith in Johan to be able to win games, even if he is reduced, and i’m not overly worrieda bout him not being back and haelthy by then.
So I’d rather take the 3-4 games more that an Ace wins, and sign a better 5th guy that won’t pitch around 5ERA (although, I think Perez is a .500 (well, better than .500 with the Mets offense) 4.8ish ERA pitcher this year, just not necessarily here)
kistics
12/23/2010-11:04am at 11:04 am (UTC -4)
Johan is my favorite Met since he threw that gem at the end of ’08 season. Having said that I have not much faith in him being the ace pitcher he once was. I hope I’m wrong, but shoulder surgery seems to be the one thing that pitchers never recover from.
oleosmirf
12/23/2010-3:30pm at 3:30 pm (UTC -4)
im not counting him out by any means and if he does rebound then he is 100% a bonafide ace but it certainly is not a guarantee by any means.
you might not be concerned but he had serious surgery so he is going to have to show us something this season in order for us to not go on and get an ace in the offseason…
wannybackstra
12/23/2010-11:26am at 11:26 am (UTC -4)
I wouldn’t count my chickens on Darvish because you will first have to count quite a few yen for his posting fee before even having the opportunity to negotiate a contract with him.