I just want to take this opportunity to thank everyone for their support of TRDM and wish everyone a happy and safe holiday.
Let’s go Mets!
Dec 26
The Sunday Question
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MLBTradeRumors
- NL East Notes: Braves, Brown, Quintero
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- Transaction Retrospection: The Jackson-Hudson Trade
- Scott Proctor Retires
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- Rangers Designate Derek Lowe For Assignment
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- Quick Hits: Gose, Dodgers, Relief Market
28 comments
rustyjr
12/26/2010-9:18am at 9:18 am (UTC -4)
Can you please phrase that as a question ? Merry Christmas gonzo
stickguy
12/26/2010-9:27am at 9:27 am (UTC -4)
what is “I will take Christmas hangovers for $200 Alex”?
Ceetar
12/26/2010-11:58am at 11:58 am (UTC -4)
rough, I didn’t drink enough for a hangover. just operating on roughly no sleep. yah no sleep!
I’m sure the Jets will put me to sleep though.
metsfan4decades
12/26/2010-1:33pm at 1:33 pm (UTC -4)
Ha! Sounds like a merry time was had by all.
Gonzo Will
12/26/2010-9:30am at 9:30 am (UTC -4)
Merry Christmas Rusty!
rustyjr
12/26/2010-9:57am at 9:57 am (UTC -4)
Back atcha Gonz
stickguy
12/26/2010-12:04pm at 12:04 pm (UTC -4)
hard to believe in a few days it will be 2011. And what, 6 weeks to pitchers and catchers? Sandy really does need to pull together the last few roster pieces in the next couple of weeks. If they don’t add 2-3 more SPs (even though some could be MiL invite/AAA depth reclaimation types) I will start to worry about the season!
kingman 26
12/26/2010-4:21pm at 4:21 pm (UTC -4)
That’s crazy. This team is far better than 2007 and 2008 on paper, we should expect 15 wins from Bonser and an MVP trophy for Pagan, Johan will be back by May 1, Reyes will surpass his very best numbers, and Beltran will hit .350.
81 wins will be a miracle my friend. One which ain’t happening.
oleosmirf
12/26/2010-5:16pm at 5:16 pm (UTC -4)
I think thats a tad pessimistic calling 81 wins a miracle considering how close we came to 81 wins last season. 85 is my goal this season. If we can get 85, Ill be pretty happy but i will admit 74-78 is probably most likely…
kingman 26
12/26/2010-5:20pm at 5:20 pm (UTC -4)
With our rotation as currently structured—and seriously, other than Young, what help are we getting??–we might not win more than 70–75.
oleosmirf
12/26/2010-5:29pm at 5:29 pm (UTC -4)
we won 79 games last season with a terrible manager, bad clubhouse and nothing from Bay and Beltran, 2B, RF and Reyes was injured/bad for half the season.
do you really think the loss of Santana along with normalization of Pagan and Dickey’s numbers are that much more of a loss than all that. Ill give you 73 or 74 at the minimum but were not gonna be as bad as you think…
kingman 26
12/26/2010-5:35pm at 5:35 pm (UTC -4)
I am sure you know I hope they win 90+, but we need Pelf and Dickey and Niese to be at least as good as last year, and we also are from from set in the pen–right now we are expecting Parnell to be THE 8th inning guy.
I think the hitting is largely irrelevant with what we currently have as a starting rotation.
If Bay/Wright/Beltran/Reyes all have all-star seasons, we may still be watching a lot of 8-6 losses.
TRS86
12/26/2010-5:39pm at 5:39 pm (UTC -4)
I just think it’s too early to tell. Last season we went in thinking that pitching would be our problem and it turned out that we were totally wrong. While I don’t expect Dickey to pitch to CY Young numbers I don’t expect too much of a regression from Niese and I expect Pelfrey to be better. The bullpen? Who the hell knows. It’s not like we had any lights out guys last year either. I still, even without Johan, can’t see how next year’s team would be predicted to be worse than this year. I will keep my prediction of 78-88 wins. To me to try and predict something more than a 10 game swing this early is too difficult to do.
kingman 26
12/26/2010-5:42pm at 5:42 pm (UTC -4)
Largely true, but Johan threw a lot of good games last year.
Is it realistic to expect Pelfrey to be better overall?
Or to expect Dickey to be as good?
I want them to win, and want it badly, but I just think we are in for one more bad year before the tide turns, which I fully expect it to.
But if Niese and Parnell improve significantly and Gee can win 12–14, and we see Mejia win 8+ in the second half, we may indeed win 82–85 in 2011.
TRS86
12/26/2010-5:49pm at 5:49 pm (UTC -4)
Keep in mind that while Johan was good he was not great and we did not win that many when he pitched either.
Yeah of course I expect Pelfrey to be better. I am an optimist. He could tank but if we can play the game of counting one part of the season more or if he had not done this or that….
Take out Pelfrey’s July and you end up with one hell of a year. (10.22 ERA and 2.661 WHIP over 5 starts).
Based on look math that gives him around a 3.15 ERA and a WHIP of 1.22 ish.
kingman 26
12/26/2010-5:54pm at 5:54 pm (UTC -4)
Well, to me, again, playing that game with someone who has been a full-time MLB starter for three years, starting at age 24, is far less meaningful than with someone who has just become a starter at age 28 for the first time and played one full year.
Overall Pelf’s 2008 and 2010 are identical (look at it–almost spooky). And very reasonable as what we can expect from him.
TRS86
12/26/2010-5:56pm at 5:56 pm (UTC -4)
Yet point still remains that if you take out that July you get a guy that pitched to the level of an upper rotation pitcher.
oleosmirf
12/26/2010-5:41pm at 5:41 pm (UTC -4)
i think you are overreacting to the pitching. While Santana is gone and Dickey will most likely not have a sub 3 era again, Pelf and Niese should collectively be exactly the same if not better.
the pitching is most likely not going to be good enough for us to make the playoffs even if the bats come alive but it shouldnt be bad enough that we lose more 90 games either
kingman 26
12/26/2010-5:43pm at 5:43 pm (UTC -4)
I hope you are right, but missing Johan for the first half with nothing remotely close to a replacement is huge.
I think you may be underreacting to that.
TRS86
12/26/2010-5:51pm at 5:51 pm (UTC -4)
Hey we are missing his first half though right
That first half included months of 3.73 and 4.68 ERA’s.
oleosmirf
12/26/2010-5:53pm at 5:53 pm (UTC -4)
the thing is you are not accounting for the increase in offense at multiple positions and the effect of new management/coaching. Those two should counteract the loss of Santana and Dickey coming back to earth.
stickguy
12/26/2010-12:07pm at 12:07 pm (UTC -4)
Looks like back home (south Jersey, were I don’t happen to be at the moment) is going to get pounded pretty good.
Will be interesting to see the Eagles playing at 8:00 tonight, in the worst part of the storm. And how many drunk obnoxious eagle fans (that is a requirement to get in the stadium, you have to blow a .1 and make some obnoxious comments) even make it to the game!
Ceetar
12/26/2010-12:10pm at 12:10 pm (UTC -4)
They’re Eagles/Phillies fans..they’re out there tailgating so hard they don’t even know it’s snowing.
stickguy
12/26/2010-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
hope they tell them that the wimpy NFL already postponed the game. Darn, i was looking forward to seeing them play in it (on TV of course)
Ceetar
12/26/2010-12:40pm at 12:40 pm (UTC -4)
heh..bet they don’t even know the difference. except they probably closed the concessions as well, so they can’t but more beer.
rustyjr
12/26/2010-12:11pm at 12:11 pm (UTC -4)
I’m on a damned diet – I balooned to 285 lbs so I went to work and ate a salad lol
metsfan4decades
12/26/2010-1:36pm at 1:36 pm (UTC -4)
Happy Holidays to you too, Gonzo.
I guess I needed to pay a bit more attention. Let my pooch out a few hours ago just as it started snowing down here on the Jersey shore. Thought I’d better look at the weather. I had no idea there was a blizzard predicted for today.
On the plus side, since we hosted X-mas eve dinner here at my house, I’ve got plenty of leftovers and bottles of wine and brandy to keep us going. I think there’s even some left over eggnog.
metsfan4decades
12/26/2010-6:41pm at 6:41 pm (UTC -4)
Just reading the mini debate above and I’m of the same mindset as TRS on this.
IMO, it’s too early for predictions but I’ll go on record saying we’re certainly far from the strongest team in the NL east.
I can see a 10 game swing either way so 78-88 seems reasonable to me. I think the BP is going to be very important this season so I’m anxious to see how Sandy fills that out.
Mets have to play every game like it’s the game that will make or break the season. Those games in the beginning of the season count just as much as those down the stretch. I’m counting on Collins to make sure they do just that.