Don’t let this be misleading. There are only 4 Type A’s who were offered arbitration left on the market. Beltre obviously makes no sense so you can strike that one.
The remaining 3 are Pavano, Soriano and Balfour.
I am not sure that Type A status will effect Pavano that much. I believe he will get 2-3 years from someone in this pitching starved market regardless of his status.
However, can the same be said for Soriano and Balfour? There are reports on MLBTR that even the Yankees don’t like the idea of giving up a 1st rounder for either of these two. What does that mean? A) The system is completely broken and if I was part of the MLBPA I would spend an incredible amount of energy in ridding baseball of that system. Players are already starting to see this and requesting contracts that do not allow the signing team to offer arbitration, see Beltran. B) The Mets due to general suckitude would not lose their 1st rounder in signing either one due to their pick being protected.
Thus could the Mets say sign Balfour to a 2 year decent deal and then in turn trade him at the deadline for prospects worth more than the 2nd rounder they would be giving up? Obviously Soriano would cost more and I am not sure how much his price will be based on his status but it could still be a shrewd move. Seems really to be an Oakland A’s type of move, hmmm.
36 comments
njstuckintx
1/4/2011-10:43am at 10:43 am (UTC -4)
I would say, in my uneducated opinion, that Sandy and company are going to be so in love with draft picks and rebuilding organically that even though a sweet deal could be had for one of these 3, none of them will be a Met.
TRS86
1/4/2011-10:51am at 10:51 am (UTC -4)
Yeah but the point is that they could actually net more in return. Not specifically how much these guys could help us for 2011 but how much they could either help us in 2012 OR be traded for more than what the draft pick would net. Keep in mind you could also be in the same situation to offer arbitration after the season.
stickguy
1/4/2011-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
well, signing FAs that you can trade at the deadline is a classic small market (low budget) team way of trying to collect draft picks or prospects. Beane keeps trying it.
but, I somehow don’t think Alderson will want to give up a guaranteed high 2nd round pick for one of these guys (likely blowing much of the rest of his budget on him, if not more!)
But, adding one to the pen (if they replicate last years stats) could go a long way to making it a more fromidable part of the team.
Interesting concept, and if they fell to super cheap it might happen, but I don’t expect it to!
TRS86
1/4/2011-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
Thing is Balfour is really going to be a victim in my mind. Similar to what happen a few years ago with uh… uh that guy that ended up in KC after a dominating year and a type A status.
stickguy
1/4/2011-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
I agree that the system is a bit whacked, and guys like that get penalized.
but, what are you going to do instead? If you eliminate the loss of draft picks for type As that helps the player, but elimnates the drag on the big money (OK, yankees) teams to prevent them from signing all the best guys, plus they have all their own picks to go overslot with.
Here are some optins (off the top of my head):
1) limit all teams to only signing 1 type A, but they don’t lose a pick (other team gets a comp pick)
2) I cna’t think of anything else that makes a lot of sense, other than saying screw the whole compensation system.
actually, #2 makes sense. It will also lead to a lot more trades of pending FAs to get something back for them!
TRS86
1/4/2011-12:48pm at 12:48 pm (UTC -4)
Screw the whole compensation system. Has it kept the Yankees from spending 200M and going out and purchasing the best players?
metsfan4decades
1/4/2011-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
It’s certainly going to be interesting to see how SA fills out the remaining rotation and BP. I can’t imagine he’s done yet. These last two signings are kind of high risk so I would think we need at least one more bona fide starter.
stickguy
1/4/2011-11:30am at 11:30 am (UTC -4)
entirely possible the guys to compete for the pen are mostly already on hand, but it would not surprise me to see a few more cheap signings made along the way, to fill out the ST squads. Every team does that anyway.
for the rotation, Capuano came pretty cheap, so I think (hope? pray?) that they will still try and get 1 more guy (like francis) to try and build some depth. Especially since if the best case happens and they have too many SPs capu can always pitch out of the pen!
metsfan4decades
1/4/2011-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
‘Too many pitchers’….
Now if that was too many pitchers that were looking GOOD in ST, that would be a novel concept compared to the past several years.
metsfan4decades
1/4/2011-12:10pm at 12:10 pm (UTC -4)
On a side note, I’m reading the tweet from AA:
‘Adrian Beltre will be 32 in April and the Rangers are about to sign him to a six-year deal. Any Mets fans still want Jon Daniels as GM?’
*********************
Can you believe some of these contracts being handed out? This doesn’t bode well for the Mets resigning Reyes.
njstuckintx
1/4/2011-12:31pm at 12:31 pm (UTC -4)
Hmmmm, I wonder who has been mentioning a potential large contract for Reyes for a while now? I wonder…
metsfan4decades
1/4/2011-12:42pm at 12:42 pm (UTC -4)
Not sure who you’re referring to.
I’m sure Reyes will get a large contract….just not sure it will be from the Mets.
Dang. I’d hate to lose Reyes.
TRS86
1/4/2011-12:47pm at 12:47 pm (UTC -4)
I would guess you.
However, if Beltre gets 6 years then the annual value can’t be that high. He would be something like 38 at the end of the contract.
njstuckintx
1/4/2011-12:49pm at 12:49 pm (UTC -4)
Which would bode very well for Reyes, with him being much younger. I’m not looking forward to all the Reyes posts throughout the year regarding should he/should he not be extended, etc. etc.
TRS86
1/4/2011-12:59pm at 12:59 pm (UTC -4)
True but each situation is different. Beltre’s is affected by the fact that he has career years in contract years where as Reyes’ will be affected by the injury issues. Not sure you can compare the two, I also did not understand what Crawford had to do with Reyes either.
metsfan4decades
1/4/2011-1:18pm at 1:18 pm (UTC -4)
Ha!
I know I’ve said resign Reyes but I don’t ever recall putting any year/$$ estimates on the type of contract he’ll likely command.
I truly have no idea at this point.
TRS86
1/4/2011-1:22pm at 1:22 pm (UTC -4)
Me I just can’t currently give him more than 4 years and 12-14 per.
stickguy
1/4/2011-1:24pm at 1:24 pm (UTC -4)
given his age, if the agent came in and said 5/80 and we sign today, Sandy needs to do it.
TRS86
1/4/2011-1:31pm at 1:31 pm (UTC -4)
Stick to me that’s crazy considering the last 2 years.
metsfan4decades
1/4/2011-1:50pm at 1:50 pm (UTC -4)
I’m thinking the time to have signed him on the relatively cheap was before mid Dec.
I understand Sandy’s mindset on taking the wait and see approach but if he’s back to Reyes form and we want him for our SS of the future, it’s gonna cost big….
The last thing I don’t think I could stomach seeing is Reyes in Yankee pinstripes or a Philly uniform. Then again, as much as the Philly fans hate Reyes that would be a bit fun to witness….
TRS86
1/4/2011-1:58pm at 1:58 pm (UTC -4)
Thing is think about how costly of a mistake it could have been if he never returns to 2008 form.
metsfan4decades
1/4/2011-2:07pm at 2:07 pm (UTC -4)
Yes, that is true.
This could go either way. It’s a gamble, to be sure.
kistics
1/4/2011-1:22pm at 1:22 pm (UTC -4)
Heyman twitted that it’ll be around 90-100M. That’s 15-16.7M per season… that is really a lot of money for a guy who has only performed well in 2 seasons of 13 season career.
TRS86
1/4/2011-1:32pm at 1:32 pm (UTC -4)
That’s desperation if the Rangers do that. That’s, hey we got all this Lee money left what do you guys want to do with it, it’s burning a hole.
metsfan4decades
1/4/2011-2:10pm at 2:10 pm (UTC -4)
wow, these contracts are just getting crazy.
I wonder how many teams, how many GMs, will have to get burned by too many long term, big money contracts before they all stop handing out that money like it was peanuts.
I’m not begrudging any player their due based on their talent but to me, no one is worth the kind of money some of these guys are getting these past few years.
stickguy
1/4/2011-12:27pm at 12:27 pm (UTC -4)
a guy that age, 3 years max, if he wants more, let him walk. Or maybe do a team only option.
also, he is a 3B. Unless they plan to move him, they don’t always age that well being a reflex position.
but, better them than us.
TRS86
1/4/2011-2:11pm at 2:11 pm (UTC -4)
Looks like it’s currently a 5 year deal with a 6th year vesting option that would move it up to 96M. That is really desperation right there. What in the hell are they thinking? Offense was their problem last year?
TRS86
1/4/2011-2:19pm at 2:19 pm (UTC -4)
Off topic but I saw this in the comment thread at MLBTR and thought it was quite funny.
“If they got rid of all the porn on the internet there would be only one website called bring back the porn dot com. ”
Now back to Beltre. Saw this too and made me laugh:
“Opt out clause for sixth year doesn’t make any sense. That’s the only year he is going to perform cause its his contract year. “
Ceetar
1/4/2011-2:28pm at 2:28 pm (UTC -4)
That’s a reference to…Avenue Q? or Scrubs?
TRS86
1/4/2011-2:29pm at 2:29 pm (UTC -4)
Not sure.
stickguy
1/4/2011-2:45pm at 2:45 pm (UTC -4)
back to Reyes (in response to a comment above from TRS), and I said this to Knog the other day.
Reyes WAS basically himself the last 2 years, when he was healthy.
2009 was abreviated due to the tendon issue (misdiagnosed and horribly botched handling probably greatly extended the outage and severity), but the roughly 1/4 of the seaosn he did play was pretty much career norm, and almost identical to his overall 2007 #s. Power (via slugging) down slightly, but it was the early part of the year (ball not carrying) and of course, 1st eyar of citi. But, he was “himself”
2010, the was rushed back after next to no ST, and started slow (and had the whole 3 hole stuff to deal with, which apparently was too much for him). But, once he got his timing back, he was cranking. from game 40
stickguy
1/4/2011-2:49pm at 2:49 pm (UTC -4)
this stupid data entry box keeps getting fouled up.
anyway, from May 23rd (game 40, right when the Phils were coming in to get swept) until the end of the year, he put up a slash line of .311/.346/.492/.839. only 21 SB, but that included extended PT with a wrapped up torso (remember batting only 1 sided?) instead of getting shut down to rest for a couple of weeks.
so yes, IMO (based on these #s) Reyes sure the hell was himself last year too.
the only real injury he had was the tendon, and that was no bother last year. Thyroid was a fluke, and muscle pulls happen (and he mostly played thru it anyway, belieing the “softie” label).
If he has a normal camp and avoids a minor pull again, at age 28, no reason that he isn’t primed for a career year, and he is just entering his prime 4-5 year window.
So hell yeah I singn him for 5/75 or so right now.
metsfan4decades
1/4/2011-3:18pm at 3:18 pm (UTC -4)
Nice. Thanks for the Reyes stat info for the last two years.
I too have no reason to believe Reyes is ‘regressing’ as some have suggested. I still contend that perceived regression was because of injuries these past 2 years than the notion that Reyes somehow peaked at age 25.
njstuckintx
1/4/2011-3:36pm at 3:36 pm (UTC -4)
Reyes will get 6 years, if not 7. I’m convinced on this matter.
Ceetar
1/4/2011-3:42pm at 3:42 pm (UTC -4)
Free agent wise, maybe. but if you could sign him right this second? he may not.
The real problem lies, if you give him a 5 year contract through 32 and he’s absolutely killing it, how do you keep him without paying him stupid-money through age like 39?
Ceetar
1/4/2011-3:27pm at 3:27 pm (UTC -4)
It’s really amazing how much damage Manuel, and overall leadership, did.
I was nieve and in favor of not DLing Reyes at all to start the season. I thought getting up to speed on the fly would be possible and he’d be better than Tejada anyway. But looking back it feels like even activating him when they did was detrimental. They were probably better off giving him a full two weeks of minor league games. Or maybe they just were overly-conservative in the rehab/spring process and didn’t play him full games when they should’ve, etc. Same with Beltran and Castillo, who were also brought back before they were able to get enough minor league reps in. (And they rested Beltran for 4, 5?, days before activating him.)
Given a leadership core with a little bit more oversight into some of these processes should have a profound difference.