The recent news about Adrian Beltre agreeing to a (potentially) ridiculous contract with Texas has re-ignited the Jose Reyes debate (“to extend or not to extend, that is the question” – and only Jimmy Johnson knows the answer…)
While there are certainly many factors to consider, including the Mets finances and the front office’s grand plan for the future, a recurring theme is that we have to wait for the “old” Reyes to return (commonly put in terms of will we get the 2008 “good” version, or the 2009-2010 “bad” version).
Well, my answer is that he NEVER LEFT. He just took some time off.
He played roughly ¼ of a season in 2009 before injuring his tendon (which was then horribly mis-diagnosed and poorly handled). But, in those 36 games, he put up a slash line of .279/.355/.395//750. Remarkably similar to his 2007 line of .280//354/.421/.775. Power was down slightly, but not abnormally so considering it was early in the season, and playing games at CitiField.
In 2010, he effectively missed spring training due to the Thyroid issue, and was most likely rushed back (then subjected to Jerry’s “experimenting”). But once he had time to regain his timing and shake the rust off, he was just fine. From May 23 until the end of the season, he put up a line of .311/.346/.492/.839. And this included playing for a period of time wrapped up like a mummy, instead of being given a few weeks off to heal properly.
If anything, these numbers (over his last 93 games) indicate that the 2010 Jose was BETTER than he was before. Even his power was up, since he hit 11 HRs in that time, which projects to a 162 game total of 20 (with 74 RBIs).
So, you can make the case that the “real” Jose was hiding out at SS for the Mets in 2010.
And, if this is true, then the argument gets reduced to “can he stay healthy and productive for the length of the projected contract?” As with any player, no one can guarantee that. But, there are some factors in his favor:
1) in 2011, he will be playing his age 28 season, which many people consider to be just entering his true prime. A 5 year deal carries through his age 32 season, or just ending his peak years.
2) Since 2004, he has had 1 significant injury, the Hamstring tendon in 2009, which was fixed finally at the end of the year. He had no apparent residual problems with that in 2010, and the tendon itself isn’t even important. Beyond that, he had an illness (resolved, no reason to expect it to recur) and a muscle pull (same injury as Pagan, and there is not a campaign going to dump him because of it).
3) There is a serious shortage of SS talent these days, and none in the Mets system (unless Flores can manage to play there in the majors). Having one of the top producing SS is a major plus for building the dynasty of the future.
Now, will the Mets extend Jose soon? Who knows. But odds are that if they do want to keep him for the future, it is only going to get more expensive. And at least IMO, we have not yet seen the best of his career.
25 comments
njstuckintx
1/4/2011-3:56pm at 3:56 pm (UTC -4)
I smell a 6, maybe a 7 year deal and I also smell an attempt at an extension and a “thanks for the offer, but I’d like to test the FA waters if you don’t mind” coming as well.
kingman 26
1/4/2011-3:56pm at 3:56 pm (UTC -4)
“If anything, these numbers (over his last 93 games) indicate that the 2010 Jose was BETTER than he was before.”
Wow. In what way? Hair style? Dancing?
Did you watch him play the field?
Did you watch him get thrown out on the bases again and again and again?
Did you watch him swing away like Ryan Howard and never draw a walk? (31 BB in 603 PA)
His OBP went down between 16–22% points every month after July.
We are not grasping at straws here, we are grasping at light beams.
kingman 26
1/4/2011-3:59pm at 3:59 pm (UTC -4)
His OBP went down between 16–22% points every month after JUNE.
OBP, I respectfully submit, is somewhat important for a leadoff hitter.
So his OBP in July/Aug/Sept of .338/.320/.304 was BETTER than the past.
Okey-dokey.
Just think, if the season lasted until December, his OBP might have reached a league-leading .260 or so.
njstuckintx
1/4/2011-4:04pm at 4:04 pm (UTC -4)
Isn’t July when he tweaked an oblique or something like that?
Ceetar
1/4/2011-4:09pm at 4:09 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, he basically was unable to properly prepare for weeks.
AND, his batting eye is trained to see the ball out of the right-handers hand in a certain way. Having him stand 3 feet away facing a different direction with the ball tailing away instead of in or vice versa could only haved screwed him up.
metsfan4decades
1/4/2011-4:39pm at 4:39 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed. I remember how awkward he looked when they had his side tapped up and he could only bat from the one side of the plate. It was clearly obvious he wasn’t going to hit from that side.
Remember him trying to bunt in a few games from that one side? It was almost painful to watch.
Heading towards the end of that first week after he strained that oblique I was yammering for them to put him on the DL already. It was clear it wasn’t getting better – unlike Pagan’s same injury. For whatever reason, Pagan’s healed faster. Maye it wasn’t as strained.
Ceetar
1/4/2011-5:20pm at 5:20 pm (UTC -4)
yeah, hard to diagnose severity. Reyes has never been a particularly fast healer either.
But it’s extremely detrimental to try to push through things sometimes. Our bodies and minds aren’t meant to. It’s the hot stove theory, how once you touch a hot stove, you learn it’s hot? Well, when you swing at an outside fastball and your oblique hurts, it creates a hesitation next time you go to swing at it.
Although it does work in reverse. Cal Ripken talked once about having a nagging injury that was made worse by swinging and missing. reinforced in his mind ‘well gee, better make contact’
Ceetar
1/4/2011-4:08pm at 4:08 pm (UTC -4)
I’d argue that one of the biggest things that gets worked on in Spring Training is TIMING. getting in shape, muscles, swinging a bat, all of that can be faked to some extent, but there is no way to prepare for a 95 mph fastball and guessing where it’s going to be on the plate other than doing it.
And by starting out with bad habits, and swinging more because you’re not sure if it’s a strike or a ball, it makes it hard to revert. (failure of HoJo here too). The ability to still keep getting hits despite swinging at so much speaks to his talent. He knows he has to walk more, and it’s something that took time in the past as well. He will walk more in 2011. OBP is merely one st at, even for a leadoff hitter. (but go ahead and debate whether he should lead off. It probably should’ve been Castillo, Reyes, 1-2 last year)
And even so, his OBP is still well above what you’d get out of the dredge we’d be able to replace him with. And everyone that’s close or better would likely suck in non-OBP stats. You’re certainly not suggesting a Castillo-clone at short.
kingman 26
1/4/2011-4:15pm at 4:15 pm (UTC -4)
Agree with much of this, but remember how Jose clearly sulked and performed horribly when switched to 3rd in the order?
Another example of his leadership and strength.
Ceetar
1/4/2011-4:17pm at 4:17 pm (UTC -4)
That ‘example’ of leadership and strength was 100% on Manuel. This was basically during Reyes’ spring training period.
He didn’t clearly sulk, he was merely honest that he fancies himself a leadoff hitter but whatever he’s asked to do he’ll do.
The sample size was so rediculously small to make an inferences from it, unless you’re a pisspoor manager that has no clue what he’s doing.
kingman 26
1/4/2011-4:21pm at 4:21 pm (UTC -4)
Maybe so.
We shall see soon enough.
And if Jose is back to the 2006–2008 Jose, I will be here graciously taking all the grief everyone can hand out.
I just really question whether he will be that player again.
I really hope he will be.
metsfan4decades
1/4/2011-4:04pm at 4:04 pm (UTC -4)
I still contend the argument that Reyes has regressed is the result of injuries and poor handling of said injuries, than in the notion that he somehow peaked at age 25.
I realize on the whole that those whose talent is based on speed start regressing earlier than those who swing a power bat. We’re talking about a 28 year old though, not 32.
The question comes down to is this Met team for the next several years better with Jose Reyes or without?
My vote remains ‘with’ until evidence to the contrary is presented.
This year should be telling.
saltygary
1/4/2011-4:44pm at 4:44 pm (UTC -4)
You are dead on with injuries and regression. The guy has never had a good approach at the plate and if he can’t get his speed back to where it needs to be I don’t know how anyone can justify paying Jose what the perceived value would be. Would much rather take that money and throw it at pitching or power at other positions.
metsfan4decades
1/4/2011-4:50pm at 4:50 pm (UTC -4)
I read a few articles that said the FA class end of 2011 will be pretty weak, especially pitchers.
The Mets will have all that money to spend – coming off the books – and no one to spend it on. Here’s hoping they invest a chunk of it on the draft.
tkfj2
1/4/2011-4:13pm at 4:13 pm (UTC -4)
I guess I’ll have to ignore some of the comments, seeing as someone has a personal vendetta against Jose.
kingman 26
1/4/2011-4:14pm at 4:14 pm (UTC -4)
Yes, citing his on-base statistics definitely is a classic example of a “personal vendetta.”
tkfj2
1/4/2011-4:24pm at 4:24 pm (UTC -4)
Oh sure, here you cite statistics.
However, it is beyond obvious you have something against Jose so anything you write on the matter will be disregarded due to clouded judgment.
kingman 26
1/4/2011-4:29pm at 4:29 pm (UTC -4)
Thank you; I will be sure to use you as my role model on judgment.
saltygary
1/4/2011-4:40pm at 4:40 pm (UTC -4)
HAHAHA
kingman 26
1/4/2011-4:51pm at 4:51 pm (UTC -4)
Thank you sir; I will be here all week!
oleosmirf
1/4/2011-5:02pm at 5:02 pm (UTC -4)
usually i shy away from optimism but I will actually agree with Ceetar’s views on Reyes b/c when you look at his numbers the decline in production seems to be simultaneous with the injuries
stickguy
1/4/2011-9:03pm at 9:03 pm (UTC -4)
Knog, I considered writing your comments for you, but I knew that you would have missed doing it yourself.
anyway, you pretty much made the argument that the oblique injury was affecting him, and I would say it probably hurt as much if not more inthe field and on the bases.
He was on fire until he had the pull. And even counting the time, he was playing limited, his OBP was .010 below his normal .355ish.
Like MF said, I really don’t think that Reyes peaked at 25 and is washed up at 28.
kingman 26
1/4/2011-10:15pm at 10:15 pm (UTC -4)
“the 2010 Jose was BETTER than he was before.”
That’s a wacky thing to say.
stickguy
1/4/2011-10:19pm at 10:19 pm (UTC -4)
offensively, yes. fewer steals, but he also started slow, and was not running nearly as much when he was playing half hobbled.
And also, for someone that is labeled as this guy where his entire game is speed, he flashed quite a bit of power (11 HRs in 93 games, and for the year, a 20 pace over 162)
stickguy
1/4/2011-10:24pm at 10:24 pm (UTC -4)
speaking of the power, jose is not a small or weak guy. In some ways, he is more of a power hitter trapped in a speedsters legs and position (hence the whole move him to 3rd idea).
Plenty of guys really grow into their power at around his age, after a few years in the majors. So it is quite reasonable in a full season for him to match or eclipse the numbers crawford did last year or is likely to this year.
if you want a career comparison, Jimmy Rollins. Similar #s to jose early in his career, then 2 big ones (especially spiking in HRs), including his (tainted) MVP year with 30.
and guess what? That was his age 28 year.