The Mets have made three moves in the last two weeks. They traded pitcher Michael Antonini for Dodgers farmhand Chin-Lung Hu. Then yesterday word came down that they had signed free agent starter Chris Capuano and free agent right-handed reliever Taylor Buchholz. I want to briefly take a look at all three moves and hopefully reconstruct what the Mets thought process was for each.
Hu for Antonini
I am stunned by some of the negative reaction to this deal, including that of Jon Heyman from SI.com . Well, I’m not really stunned. While no one is better sourced, Heyman has cleverly positioned himself as a foil of the sabermetric community as a means of driving web traffic to his articles. Success yet again Jon! All of this is to say that I think we should expect him to be critical of every move Sandy Alderson makes (unless it is overpaying a Scott Boras client).
To the merits, you’d think the Mets just traded Scott Kazmir for Kaz Matsui. In reality, I think the Mets got an absolute steal. First, what we gave up. Here are Antonini’s stats for 2009 and 2010 (pitching at Double and Triple-A both seasons):
2009 (age 24): 6.78 SO/9 (you want a minor league starter to be at 9 SO/9), 7-6, 5.74 ERA; 2.7 BB/9
2010 (age 25): 7.01 SO/9, 8-12, 4.49 ERA; 1.65 BB/9.
Yes, Antonini showed some small improvement from 2009-10, but he’s still not ready to be a big league starter. He also doesn’t do particularly well against lefty hitters, which suggests he won’t be a good specialist. And, at 26, it’s unlikely he’ll suddenly find himself. Thus, I don’t find it “puzzling” that the Mets gave up Antonini.
But, more importantly, I think we got something very valuable in return. Yes, overall, Hu has not proven he can hit enough to be an every-day player at the big-league level. But, against left-handed pitchers, he can rake. Last year, he hit lefties to a .435/.452/.594 tune. And, as is widely known, he’s an excellent defender at short and second. Or, to put the above another way, he’s the perfect platoon partner/late-inning defensive replacement for Daniel Murphy.
I also like Hu for another reason. He plays short. The Mets have stubbornly refused to put a backup shortstop on the roster for the bulk of Jose Reyes’ tenure as a Met (remember his memorable, “I don’t play bench” statement back in ’06?). As a result, in 2005 Reyes played in 161 games, in 2006-153, 2007-160, 2008-159, and then, I don’t need to tell you, only 36 in 2009 and 133 in 2010 (while playing almost every day when he was healthy). Players like Reyes, who rely on their legs and play a physically demanding position, need days off. I’d love to look at Reyes’ healthy years and compare how he performs after playing, say, 30 straight games, with a 30-day period where he had one day of rest, but there are none!! And please, spare me the “he gets paid to play every day” comments. I want Reyes at his best, and a day off here and there is clearly to his benefit. Hu allows the Mets to rest Reyes (maybe every other Pelfrey start?) and sacrifice some offense for improved defense.
Signing Chris Capuano
This is a classic low-risk, medium-reward move. Capuano didn’t pitch at all in ’08 and ’09. But, there’s pretty good reason to believe he’s now healthy. His fastball and slider velocity in 2010 was actually above his pre-injury level (87.4-86.9, 78.4-77.1). And when healthy, Capuano can be a pretty good starting pitcher. In ’05 and ’06, his peripheral numbers (7.23/7.08 SO/9, 3.74/1.91 BB/9, .291/.308 BABIP) suggest that his ERA’s right around 4 were appropriate.
Further, Capuano stands to benefit from his move to Citi Field in two meaningful ways. First, he’s always had a fairly high fly-ball to home run ratio — 11.8% for his career. That should drop as a Met. Second, his numbers have been inflated somewhat by pitching in front of a truly awful Brewers defense (which has manifested itself in Capuano having two seasons with infield hit percentages above 10%). Capuano actually generates a fair number of ground balls (around 40% of all batted balls), and should benefit from a solid Mets infield defense.
Is he Cliff Lee? No. But if healthy, I could see an ERA around 3.75 over 175 innings.
Taylor Buchholz
I don’t have a whole lot to say about this one, other than the last time Buchholz was healthy, he was an effective reliever. In 2007, he had a fairly high 4.23 ERA. But that was due mainly to a high (.318 BABIP) and a poor performance as a starter. In the ‘pen, he pitched to a 2.70 ERA. In 2008, his last year of full health, Buchholz was a full-time reliever and was dominant; striking out 7.6 per 9 innings and allowing only 0.68 HR/9 with an ERA of only 2.17. That season, however, was somewhat due to luck as Buchholz had an unsustainably low .225 BABIP. However, his SIERA was only 3.66, which still indicates he had some value. And, according to Baseball Prospectus, his WXRL (my preferred metric for measuring relievers) was 2.538, good for 30th among all big-league relievers.
In sum, are any of these moves game changers? Probably not. But they are a sign that our new front office knows how to build a real team. Each of these guys, when healthy, can be quality major leaguers who contribute. That means we may not have to watch the Jeremi Gonzalez’s of the world start games. Or maybe Jose Reyes will have one fewer trip to the DL. These are the kinds of transactions that, when coupled with a talented core, make the difference over a 162-game season. Had Omar had the foresight to make these kinds of deals in 2007 and 2008, we’d have a couple of more playoff births to have enjoyed, and maybe even a world series to be remembered.
12 comments
stickguy
1/5/2011-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
logically thought out depth (meaning bench and AAA call ups). Not something Omar had a good reputation for!
ANd something with the Reyes theme that I doubt can be proven, but given that he had a tendancy to fade badly in September, is that the reaosn? Logically, there is no other reason for him to just tail off like that unless he was worn out. So, will cutting back a bit on the pounding (a few more days off, probably a bit less in steal attempts) keep him fresher fo the stretch run?
and yes, these all seem like shoring up/supporting cast moves. But considering Omar already spent all the big “star” money (and they have pelnty of names on the roster already) this is what was left for the most part.
Ceetar
1/5/2011-11:17am at 11:17 am (UTC -4)
Not for nothing, but I feel like Cora was percisely this. A basic/replacement type guy who could play SS for the 5-10 games Reyes would need off to stay fresh. And maybe another 10-20 for Castillo. Hu probably has more upside, while Cora was more of a known ‘average’, but the real problem was not having a SS/2B prospect to adaquately fill in for real absense at those positions and using Cora as something other than that. And that’s where the Hu depth really helps. If he can bash a single off a lefty late in a game, all the better. Especially for Murphy, as he’d likely bat between Thole and Ike.
metsfan2011
1/5/2011-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
The issue with Cora is twofold: first, he had no range at all by the time he joined the Mets. Second, he cost $2m a year, in contrast to the $400k Hu stands to make. And of course, the Mets didn’t sign him until ’09, after Reyes had already played nearly every game for 4 seasons straight.
Ceetar
1/5/2011-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
Well yes, but I’m not convinced that 2million kept the Mets from doing anything, so it’s not really a factor. And I don’t/didn’t trust any of their 400k options.
that they acquired him after those four seasons suggests that maybe they were aware of needing to give Reyes more rest, and also expected him to be on the field regularly and the backup guy not need to have as much range, as he’d be more of a 2B backup.
The state of the Mets now, with such an uncertainty at 2B, is to want someone that has more upside than Cora did. You could concieve of a scenario where the backup guy plays more often than you’d want a sucky defensive replacement to play.
fongy2
1/5/2011-11:03am at 11:03 am (UTC -4)
Mentioning Jeremi Gonzalez…..THAT’s a sad story. God rest his soul.
33 is too young to go.
metsfan4decades
1/5/2011-12:14pm at 12:14 pm (UTC -4)
Amen on that. Same with Jose Lima. Somewhere up above, it’s always Lima TIme now.
metsfan4decades
1/5/2011-12:12pm at 12:12 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks for the concise look at the pieces we recently picked up. It’s great to be able to come here and read this all in one place, one post – without having to go across several sites to get any meaningful information on these pickups.
I was satisfied before I read this article. I’m even more so now. All have some good upside and the price is right as well!
metsfan2011
1/5/2011-1:43pm at 1:43 pm (UTC -4)
thanks. Glad to be of some assistance. One point I didn’t stress enough in the post is that Capuano really does stand to give up fewer homers in Citi Field — he has a very high HR/FB ratio
Ceetar
1/5/2011-1:48pm at 1:48 pm (UTC -4)
what about when he pitches on the road though..which he’s currently scheduled to do at least a dozen times?
stickguy
1/5/2011-2:11pm at 2:11 pm (UTC -4)
he probably gives up a few more HRs, but no reason he still can’t pitch effectively.
hey, logically if he is pitching in a hitters park, the mets should also be scoring more runs in that game!
metsfan4decades
1/5/2011-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
On another note, MLBTR is reporting:
Cardinals Open Extension Talks With Albert Pujols
This ought to be interesting. I can’t even imagine how muchh it’ll cost the Cardinals to do this. Wonder if Prince Albert will be considering a home town discount?
stickguy
1/5/2011-2:14pm at 2:14 pm (UTC -4)
wouldn’t surprise me. He seems by all accounts to be happy there, and the team is consistantly a playoff contendor (in a normally weak division). And at some piont, you would think there has to be enough money coming in (hell, he has already made over 100mill, right?)
He won’t take a 5/75 deal, but if they offer him 7 guaranteed at 20+, with a few mutual or vesting option years, he won’t be hurting to take it.
there is also an injury risk with any player (and he has had elbow concerns). So no guarantee that he plays out the year and gets more (the usual reason for a discount on an extension, and a big reason to sign Reyes now!)