Jan 19
Mets players out of options include Nick Evans, Chin-lung Hu, Jason Pridie, Manny Acosta, Luis Hernandez and Pat Misch.
Adam Rubin
AdamRubinESPN
So as I mentioned yesterday the competition in spring training for roster spots could get intense and I am very much so looking forward to it. Thanks to Metsblog for the link.
MLBTradeRumors
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167 comments
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-9:25am at 9:25 am (UTC -4)
umm, check your coding.
metsfan4decades
1/19/2011-9:48am at 9:48 am (UTC -4)
O.K. – can’t read this post but I did navigate my way to metsblog, since you referenced that.
I’m having a hard time keeping up with all the signings, who is a major league guaranteed contract, who is minor league signing, who is Rule V, who is out of options….
Nick Evans, at this point in his career, might fare better if the Mets did trade him. Seems he keeps coming up as the odd man out. Don’t really know about his defense but I always liked his bat…..
TRS86
1/19/2011-9:54am at 9:54 am (UTC -4)
Well that was weird. When I first checked it, it worked.
Oh well. Sorry about that.
TRS86
1/19/2011-9:56am at 9:56 am (UTC -4)
As for Rule V you can add Emaus and Beato to the list of make it or get lost guys.
TRS86
1/19/2011-10:07am at 10:07 am (UTC -4)
OK time to light the fire once again. With the Angels getting all kinds of heat for not making a move this off-season should the Mets try and make a deal there using Beltran or god forbid a huge package with one of the Angels SP for Reyes?
In other words could the Mets build a package around Reyes that nets them Ervin Santana? (If you are wondering his contract situation 11:$8M, 12:$11.2M, 13:$13M club option ($1M buyout))
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-10:21am at 10:21 am (UTC -4)
Ooohhh… something spicy to discuss.
I thought they had a full Outfield, so not sure if they would even be interested in Beltran. DH is an option, so who knows. Obviously depends on what you would net back and how much of Beltran’s salary you’d need to cover. I don’t think he’ll get you as much now as he would if he plays strong through the year and is traded at the deadline.
As for Reyes… insert key, turn, open pandora’s box. If they think they can sign him to an extension, they should. I don’t want to see him traded. If they think they can’t and think 2011 will play out as it does, no pressure, they’re best offering arb and collecting 2 picks. If you don’t think he’s going to resign, or holds his best value right now… taking heart out of it and thinking strictly need for team, I’d still hold onto him. Ervin is extremely good and would be a welcomed addition, but the lack of a SS in the system or on the market would lead me to believe the net return, Reyes for Ervin would be a negative in the Mets direction.
Do you have a hypothetical package for the trade?
TRS86
1/19/2011-10:35am at 10:35 am (UTC -4)
Hmmm, is it easier to replace Reyes or Santana in this market? Now don’t get me wrong you can’t find a Reyes level SS on the FA market but if you look at next year’s SP market you can’t find a Santana either.
However, thinking about Johan, Ervin, Pelfrey, Niese, Mejia, Dickey in 2012 might make me pull the trigger. I think you could maybe net Izturis or Aybar in the deal to take Reyes’ spot for now.
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-10:38am at 10:38 am (UTC -4)
If you could get a SS back in the deal to fill in (& i mean fill in above Ordenez or the original Santana (raffie) levels), then that may be worth it. Would put a lot of pressure on Pagan to be mr. leadoff, for sure.
TRS86
1/19/2011-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
True. I guess it would be something like
Pagan, Murphy/Emaus, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Ike, ….
metsfan4decades
1/19/2011-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
We can always count on you real, for various trade suggestions…..good thing ’cause I suck at those.
My opinion? Wouldn’t mind exploring a trade but not with Reyes.
Why would the Angels trade Santana though?
TRS86
1/19/2011-10:32am at 10:32 am (UTC -4)
They have plenty of SP but need offense. Also there fanbase is even more pissed than ours that they have not made a big move. So perhaps Reyes could be their version of netting Crawford.
stickguy
1/19/2011-12:21pm at 12:21 pm (UTC -4)
sure they don’t need an OF (CF) instead? if they don’t want Beltran, trade to get a jackpot back for Pagan.
TRS86
1/19/2011-2:08pm at 2:08 pm (UTC -4)
You really don’t get value sometimes (of course IMO). Pagan does not net you anymore than a back end guy much less a jackpot.
Ceetar
1/19/2011-10:29am at 10:29 am (UTC -4)
Depends, are we making him use his given name of Johan and pretending?
but no, I wouldn’t do it.
TRS86
1/19/2011-10:33am at 10:33 am (UTC -4)
You seriously would not trade Jose for Santana?
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-10:35am at 10:35 am (UTC -4)
Based on what we have as a backup SS, it’s tough to do it at this time, no?
TRS86
1/19/2011-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
Perhaps but you have to think long term. Ervin has a good contract through 2013. Also as I mentioned the Angels would most likely throw in Aybar or Izturis.
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
Well, signing Reyes now would be planning for the long term as well as sitting back and banking on 2 nice draft picks. Just nitpicking…
TRS86
1/19/2011-11:06am at 11:06 am (UTC -4)
It could be. I guess the issue would be what you think Reyes will sign for, if Sandy thinks he is part of the future and If Reyes even wants to stay.
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
In my totally baseless shot in the dark while wearing a blindfold guess, he’ll get 6 years (option for a 7th) from someone, and I’ll venture to say it’ll be for about 85-90 mil for those 6 years. I do think Reyes would like to stay, but when money/years are talking, it’s tough not to listen, regardless of where they are talking to you from.
TRS86
1/19/2011-11:20am at 11:20 am (UTC -4)
I think if Sandy wants him he will match what ever contract he gets.
stickguy
1/19/2011-12:23pm at 12:23 pm (UTC -4)
If the Mets wont go 6 years on a 27/28 year old guy tht is one of the tops at a weak (league wise) position, then forget ever getting a top tier FA and just start rebuilding from the farm.
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-12:24pm at 12:24 pm (UTC -4)
Sandy wants Flexibility. If he can maintain that and sign Reyes to whatever the market deems, then cool beans for us. If not, he sachets on down the hall.
TRS86
1/19/2011-12:29pm at 12:29 pm (UTC -4)
I still don’t get where everyone gets all these Sandy rules. He does not have enough of a NY track record to know what he is going to do. He has never said, I will flatly refuse to give a big contract. He has said he does not want to but who does? He has also said this is NY and he will have to read the market.
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-12:46pm at 12:46 pm (UTC -4)
He specifically stated he wanted to maintain flexibility, That was my point.
Ceetar
1/19/2011-10:54am at 10:54 am (UTC -4)
No. Besides the ‘throw away 2011′ angle, the drop off in 2012 and 2013 between Santana II and whatever pitchers the Mets can get their hands on to fill out the rotation is still likely much greater than the dropoff between Reyes and every other SS option.
TRS86
1/19/2011-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
I can’t imagine that bringing in Ervin to be our ace until Johan returns would be throwing away the season anymore than going with our current rotation.
I would be interested to see the value of Ervin to say Capuano and that of Reyes to Aybar.
TRS86
1/19/2011-10:42am at 10:42 am (UTC -4)
OK to play around a little package
Ervin and Aybar for Jose, Gee and Valdespin.
Honestly I have no idea on what it would take.
metsfan4decades
1/19/2011-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
I think the Angels get the better end of the deal on that trade.
TRS86
1/19/2011-10:46am at 10:46 am (UTC -4)
Keep in mind they only get one year of Reyes unless they sign him to an extension.
Gee is a backend guy at best and would not be needed as much if we had Ervin. Ervin is in my opinion a no doubt top of the rotation guy in the NL.
metsfan4decades
1/19/2011-10:53am at 10:53 am (UTC -4)
You have a point about getting Reyes for one year unless he agrees to an extension.
Glad you said ‘top of the rotation’ guy and not ace. Based on that, still don’t know why the Angels would trade him. I guess the Angels haven’t lived through the dark days of injuries to the pitching staff and not enough competent replacements – like the Mets have.
If he’s that solid, no way am I giving him up.
fongy2
1/19/2011-10:56am at 10:56 am (UTC -4)
No trading Reyes!!! If you do, ya might as well tear the whole thing down and build it all over again.
TRS86
1/19/2011-11:05am at 11:05 am (UTC -4)
LOL, don’t be too stubborn Fongy. I love Reyes too but Ervin is no slouch.
fongy2
1/19/2011-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
No slouch, but no Ace either.
And Prismo, how’s it a given he’s gone???
TRS86
1/19/2011-11:09am at 11:09 am (UTC -4)
Yeah I will agree he’s most likely not an ace. However, he would instantly be the best pitcher on the staff and given a healthy Johan someone to pair up with.
Prismo
1/19/2011-11:06am at 11:06 am (UTC -4)
You realize Reyes is likely gone after this season anyway, right? Sorry to burst your bubble.
TRS86
1/19/2011-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
Not so fast my friend.
Too early to tell on that one IMO.
Prismo
1/19/2011-11:12am at 11:12 am (UTC -4)
Well, if he has a crappy season…do we really WANT to resign him? And if he has a great season…how much his he going to demand? It could be A LOT.
TRS86
1/19/2011-11:19am at 11:19 am (UTC -4)
Could be. Hey what if he has an average year? LOL
I still think if the Mets want him they will pay for him. If not then they won’t. Pretty simple to me.
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-11:20am at 11:20 am (UTC -4)
Oleo’s argument, which does have validity, is that with all the money coming off the books, there is no reason the Mets can be outbid by anyone to resign Reyes. Not saying there isn’t an amount of years/salary that they don’t want to go over, but if they want him that bad, they have the resources to sign him.
In my mind, no reason not to extend him now (cue the cialis jokes) and get the same player for ideally less cost in either $$$ or years.
TRS86
1/19/2011-11:22am at 11:22 am (UTC -4)
Think about it from Reyes’ perspective. Why would he want to sign the extension right now, at his lowest value. I know he would be gambling another injury but I don’t think Reyes would think that way.
stickguy
1/19/2011-12:27pm at 12:27 pm (UTC -4)
that is the reason. cost certainty. It shifts the injury risk (and any other career decline issues) entirely to the Mets.
Think of it as him buying insurance. And like any insurance, it costs you something to get (in this case, a more team friendly contract).
that is why players do this all the time, for security. Just like you are (statistically) likely to live another 40 years, but you probably have life insurance, just in case!
TRS86
1/19/2011-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
True but again unless he thinks it’s going to be a career threatening injury then there is no reason for him to do it while his value is down. It would cost him more than the benefit of taking it.
TRS86
1/19/2011-11:22am at 11:22 am (UTC -4)
Hey, I like Oleo but did you just call me that?
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-11:25am at 11:25 am (UTC -4)
I know the difference between you 2!
I bring up Oleo because I have been having this discussion with him on this for weeks now. Even though the Mets can afford to pay him, they won’t go as high in salary or years that another team will.
Prismo
1/19/2011-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
So…we’re going to spend a large chunk of our freed up money trying to keep the SAME team we’ve had for years? (this is assuming we don’t make the playoffs)
I’m somewhat playing devil’s advocate, but that doesn’t necessarily make sense. If the team fails again, which is more likely than not, shouldn’t the money be spent on rejuvenating the roster, rather than rehashing it with current/former players?
TRS86
1/19/2011-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
Again depends on current options available. Will there be anyone out there that improves the team more than Reyes would?
They will have a ton of money with or without Reyes.
Prismo
1/19/2011-11:28am at 11:28 am (UTC -4)
Okay, so we have a ton of money. Whether or not Reyes is worth it, let’s just spend it cuz we have it! That’s a good business plan!
(I think Sandy’s smarter than that)
fongy2
1/19/2011-11:30am at 11:30 am (UTC -4)
If they have any intention of spending that money,
it would be wise to re-sign Reyes and then spend
some of the rest on the best available SPer.
TRS86
1/19/2011-11:30am at 11:30 am (UTC -4)
That’s kind of my point. Looking at next year’s FA market if Reyes is on it then he is most likely the best player on it if not then top 3. Pending on what happens with some of the big names that might get extended before then. Also you have to keep in mind what holes we will have.
We would have SS, RF, and most likely SP.
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-11:28am at 11:28 am (UTC -4)
The freed up money needs to be spent on a SS, RF, Pitchers and BP Guys. With Reyes being the #1 option on the FA market at SS, why wouldn’t you spend money on him? I just think it can be done now at a somewhat discounted rate, meaning maybe he signs a 5 year deal vs. a 6 or 7 on the open market. I don’t know, but better to try to negotiate with him in good faith and without others to leverage against the Mets.
TRS86
1/19/2011-11:31am at 11:31 am (UTC -4)
What is the advantage for Reyes signing an extension right now when his value is low?
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-11:41am at 11:41 am (UTC -4)
His thyroid, his oblique, etc…
TRS86
1/19/2011-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
Right but if Reyes feels those things are behind him (as the oblique should for sure be) based on your contract situations he would be costing himself ten’s of millions.
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-12:06pm at 12:06 pm (UTC -4)
Who knows, People get beaned in the head, tear MCLs, myriad of other things. He may want some security. I guess to sum it all up, We’ll never know what he will do unless the Mets actually start engaging him in negotiation talks.
stickguy
1/19/2011-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
if the mets are going to get real bang for their buck next off season (the talent influx needed to be a serious contender), then they really need an internal option to step up and take over RF on the cheap. Duda, F Mart, Kirk, etc. Someone needs to grab the spot.
that way, they have tons to spend on getting SP upgrades, and SS.
If they have to spend 8 figures/year on a RF, then the plan won’t be working too well!
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-12:33pm at 12:33 pm (UTC -4)
Or, to go Kongs preferred method, Sign Fielder, move Ike to RF and go cheap on the SS option.
TRS86
1/19/2011-12:53pm at 12:53 pm (UTC -4)
Replacing that middle of the order bat of Beltran’s with one of those guys will be tough to do for sure. I am also not sure considering the market for 2012 that just signing Reyes and the top SP will make us a vastly better team.
metsfan4decades
1/19/2011-11:32am at 11:32 am (UTC -4)
If the team fails again, I don’t think Reyes will be the poster boy for that failure.
Have you looked at our pitching going into the season?
TRS86
1/19/2011-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
True, however if we are competitive again in September and Reyes tanks again like he always has then watch out.
fongy2
1/19/2011-11:43am at 11:43 am (UTC -4)
You know…..Thank you. Trading Reyes unless someone simply makes a crazy offer makes no sense.
fongy2
1/19/2011-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
Let me break it to ya….We’re going to have a crappy season
regardless of what Reyes does. Going foward though, this
is a 27 year old SS whos one of the 3to5 best at his position
AND should just now be entering his prime seasons.
Yes, Ervin Santana is a nice #3 SP and still very young BUT
do you have any idea how NOT having Jose Reyes at the
top of line-up and playing the most important defensive position on the field has in the past and would negatively
effect this team???
TRS86
1/19/2011-11:29am at 11:29 am (UTC -4)
Could it lead us to having a high payroll and not making the playoffs for 5 years?
Prismo does have a point that it has not necessarily worked with Reyes. Although that is obviously not all his fault. Even though he has tanked every September.
I would rank Ervin better than a mid-rotation guy in the NL in Citi. I would rank him upper rotation but not an ace. Nice young complement to Johan for 3 years.
metsfan4decades
1/19/2011-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
Come on…we could say ‘it hasn’t worked with Wright’ either but does anyone want to see him traded?
TRS86
1/19/2011-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
True but I think Wright has much more value to the franchise, has been mostly healthy, is signed for another year, and has not tanked every September.
fongy2
1/19/2011-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
Thank You!……Or the guy who by the end of the season will have cashed $120+Million of NY Mets
checks, Carlos Beltran………..
fongy2
1/19/2011-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
Right so, if we’re moving Reyes and retooling, why wouldn’t you put Wright who’d have even more value
on the market?
TRS86
1/19/2011-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
Beltran is gone either way. Wright again as the face of the franchise has much more value to the Mets than he would in trade.
fongy2
1/19/2011-11:37am at 11:37 am (UTC -4)
Look, we’ve got alot to worry about going foward.
SS shouldn’t be one of them. Not when you have a
Jose Reyes @27y/o manning the position.
Who knows what Johan will be when he returns, how
long it will take for him to be Johan again, if ever?
Yes, Ervin would be our Co-Ace along with Pelf, but what
is that saying? Can that match up with the elite #1,#2s
of the top contenders in The NL??? I think not.
Then, less Reyes, how does your line-up look?
And what about your defense?
And on Ervin suddenly becoming an Ace in the NL,
what the AL West is suddenly a better Division than the
NL East, again who Ervin would get the majority of his starts??? Again, I think not.
TRS86
1/19/2011-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
Hmmm, how would Ervin rank in the NL East in Citi?
I would obviously put Lee ahead of him.
At this point I think I would put him ahead of the Braves #2 and ahead of the Marlins #2.
While the AL West is not a well rounded division it has some decent offenses.
metsfan4decades
1/19/2011-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
I think they’re going to be sorry in not having offered Reyes an extension end of last year. I think Sandy is a bit surprised by the contracts that were given to guys like Crawford and Werth. If Reyes has a good year, or even just average, he’s going to ask – and probably get – top dollar on the FA market.
Getting a replacement isn’t going to be as cheap as they think. Just look at the contracts mediocre players have been offered this off season.
fongy2
1/19/2011-11:41am at 11:41 am (UTC -4)
Thats the key, not just getting a replacement, at any price BUT
getting a player similar to Jose to play SS and be a leadoff hItter.
TRS86
1/19/2011-11:58am at 11:58 am (UTC -4)
Pagan can most likely handle lead off.
As for being similar to Reyes they don’t have to be as long as the difference is made up elsewhere on the team. Again the question becomes is Reyes and Cap better than say Ervin and Aybar.
metsfan4decades
1/19/2011-12:07pm at 12:07 pm (UTC -4)
Which brings us to the debate recently that half the fan base wanted to see Pagan traded with the ‘sell-high-he’s-a-4th-OF’ argument….
TRS86
1/19/2011-12:12pm at 12:12 pm (UTC -4)
To me trading Pagan is just as risky as trading Reyes. We have no CF replacement anywhere near ready and finding one that can hit and is cheapish is not easy at all. Obviously you net much more in return for a Reyes trade.
stickguy
1/19/2011-12:56pm at 12:56 pm (UTC -4)
like you say, it is not jsut about now, but also about the next 2-whatever# of years.
and Pagan is not likely to be a part of the ongoing championship core. Reyes could be.
Big difference when you look past 2011.
TRS86
1/19/2011-1:01pm at 1:01 pm (UTC -4)
If Pagan is playing CF at a cheap price and is productive he too can be part of an on going championship core.
stickguy
1/19/2011-1:10pm at 1:10 pm (UTC -4)
he is getting more expensive, and in 2013 would be playing as a 32 YO CF on a FA contract.
I consider him an option through 2012 and no more. MHO of course.
TRS86
1/19/2011-1:27pm at 1:27 pm (UTC -4)
Getting more expensive is relative. IF he continues to produce at the CF position he is likely to still be a bargain. I also would not mind giving him a contract that buys out these two years of arbitration and signs him one FA year. Say 3/18. Those 3 years hopefully gives someone in the system a chance to step up.
Ceetar
1/19/2011-11:49am at 11:49 am (UTC -4)
I still believe Reyes gets extended. Sandy had a ton to do real fast, and renegotiating with players that were already here for 2011 was not a priority. The team is mostly rounded out now, so I suspect things could start up in the regards now, or in Spring Training.
Hey, Reyes is at Citi Field _today_. Maybe he’s multi-tasking.
metsfan4decades
1/19/2011-11:54am at 11:54 am (UTC -4)
I wish I had your confidence. I think Sandy meant it when he said ‘let me see him play a bit first’.
I think it’s a mistake…..I’ll go on record saying that – even though from what I’m reading 50% of the fan base seems to be on the side of trading Reyes – or letting him walk.
TRS86
1/19/2011-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
Honestly I could think there is not much interest from either side in extending the contract.
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-12:07pm at 12:07 pm (UTC -4)
Sandy and his games of chicken…
metsfan4decades
1/19/2011-12:10pm at 12:10 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, I think he under estimated the economy/FA market. Heck, I think most of us did. I thought for sure some of these contracts would start getting a bit more reasonable.
But 38 MIL for Soriano? How about what other BP arms have been getting?
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-12:14pm at 12:14 pm (UTC -4)
Which is going to lead us to someone offering 7 years, 100-110 million for Reyes and the Mets are going to back off cause they won’t go 7 years or pay that money. I know I’m speculating, but I can’t see Alderson doing that. And Sandy being a smarter man than I, he may be right to not do that, I dunno. If you can start negotiating, showing good faith and interest, you just may get him at 17mil per for 4 years or 16 per for 5. you just don’t know until you start asking/talking.
TRS86
1/19/2011-12:16pm at 12:16 pm (UTC -4)
Again, if Sandy believes that signing Reyes at that cost will benefit the team then he will do it. If not then he will not.
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-12:18pm at 12:18 pm (UTC -4)
Yup.
TRS86
1/19/2011-12:14pm at 12:14 pm (UTC -4)
I just don’t see it that way.
metsfan4decades
1/19/2011-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
But I’ll bet if they had made it a priority back in Nov there would have been….
TRS86
1/19/2011-12:13pm at 12:13 pm (UTC -4)
I just don’t see the motivation for Reyes to hurry into an extension that cost him ten’s of millions. It would have to be at most maybe 20% less than he would get on the market. What would that even be?
It’s not like he would sign tomorrow or would have signed in November at 5/60.
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-12:22pm at 12:22 pm (UTC -4)
Only motivation is mitigation of risk. And since Jose is a Risque Dancer, I agree that his motivation to sign now is not there.
metsfan4decades
1/19/2011-12:24pm at 12:24 pm (UTC -4)
LOL…..
metsfan4decades
1/19/2011-12:22pm at 12:22 pm (UTC -4)
I’m just speculating. I could be way off. Depends on how much he really wants to stay with the Mets.
Remember ARod? Boras convinced him to go FA, instead of listening to an extension deal with the Yankees. Looks like it turned out that no other team – not even Boston – was going to offer him what Boras thought he was worth. He goes back to Steinbrenner on his own to negotiate a contract. Not saying it wasn’t a lucrative one but it very well could have been close to the same the Yanks would have offered him anyway to extend him, before he went FA. ARod just really wanted to continue playing for the Yankees.
fongy2
1/19/2011-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
i thought Boras WASN”T Reyes’ agent.
And to TRS, Your agrument that Ervin is a better
#2 than what the Braves or Marlins have holds no
water because of the team behind them.
Is Ervin Santana even the pitcher hes been already
even as good on a Met team w/o Reyes?
As for Pagan replacing Reyes at the top of the order..
……Well, ya know, I just won’t even bother.
Comparing Pagan to Reyes is a waste of everyone’s time.
metsfan4decades
1/19/2011-1:05pm at 1:05 pm (UTC -4)
You’re right – I wasn’t implying Boras is Reyes’ agent. Sorry if it read like that….
kingman 26
1/19/2011-12:23pm at 12:23 pm (UTC -4)
There’s no motivation for EITHER side to extend now.
Jose isn’t worth anything close to what the estimates will be, until he proves he can again be the 2006–2008 Jose.
Alderson would be beyond moronic to give him a huge deal now, and from Jose’s perspective, every good month he puts up in 2011 will raise his price.
I know Jose’s fans don’t like it, but he has not been very good since 2008.
TRS86
1/19/2011-12:27pm at 12:27 pm (UTC -4)
Not getting into if he has been good or bad since 2008.
However, I agree on the lack of motivation.
OK lets say Reyes gets injured or has a down year. What will he get on the FA market? Someone most likely would still give him a pretty big deal. 4/48 maybe?
OK lets say Reyes signs an extension. The only thing Sandy could even think about would be maybe at most 4/60.
If Reyes has a good year based on many of our posters thoughts he could net 100M.
Thus it’s take a chance and lose 12M or gain 40M. I think I would take that chance.
metsfan4decades
1/19/2011-12:40pm at 12:40 pm (UTC -4)
Reyes has been injured twice since 2008 and one health issue. 2009 he missed practically the whole season.
2010 he had no issue with the injury from 2009. He missed ST due to health issue, then injured his oblique mid season which was poorly handled (surprise, surprise).
Instead of just putting him on the DL, they tape him up and make him bat from just one side. Not surprised his numbers were off somewhat in 2010.
Some may think Reyes isn’t close to what estimates have been thrown out there but given the market and contracts that have been signed this off season, he’ll get that money. Only way I can’t see it happening is if he has an extended injury this season.
kingman 26
1/19/2011-12:41pm at 12:41 pm (UTC -4)
His OBP was .321 last year.
You don’t give a leadoff hitter with a .321 OBP a deal like Carl Crawford got, which is likely what Jose will be asking for.
I think you have consistently underestimated what Jose will ask for–and get, especially if he rebounds this year.
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-12:45pm at 12:45 pm (UTC -4)
Just one counter point, there Kong. It only takes 1 Giants team to sign Zito to a 7 year, 120 million dollar deal. It only take 1 team to sign GMJ to a ludicrisp contract. It only takes 1 team to sign Soriano (Both Soriano’s, for that point) to the money he(they) got. There is always 1 nut ruining the market and I sense a the squirrels are getting antsy with the amount of nuts out there.
TRS86
1/19/2011-12:47pm at 12:47 pm (UTC -4)
OK so lets assume there is that one nut, be glad that the Mets are not it then.
fongy2
1/19/2011-12:49pm at 12:49 pm (UTC -4)
I for one understand not extending him now.
I can understand it. I understand, at least I think I do,
what Alderson’s doing now. Makes sense.
He needs to figure out exactly what direction we’re
going and who’s coming with us there.
He still needs to sort out what we think we have AND
what we really have. Prime example FMart. Is he a
player, is he not? AND what kind of player?
Who’ll get paid long term going foward and who won’t? This is why, as has been reported, Alderson
didn’t even discuss more than a one-yr deal with Pelf.
My posts have been simply in response to TRS’ proposed deal, which isn’t a terrible thought BUT just
one that right now doesn’t make sense for us.
If it became clear in July the FO didn’t want Reyes back and the Angels wanted to part with a Ervin/Aybar
package, o.k. great! It’s just ALOTs gonna happen
between now and July in terms of the FO trying to rebuild us into a serious Playoff contender.
TRS86
1/19/2011-12:50pm at 12:50 pm (UTC -4)
Playing both sides if I may King.
If you can cherry pick 2 months of Pagan’s season can I also do that with Reyes?
Generated 1/19/2011.
TRS86
1/19/2011-12:51pm at 12:51 pm (UTC -4)
I can agree with waiting Fongy. Just throwing out the idea that now might be the time for the Angels to make a move they might not normally make because of fan pressure.
kingman 26
1/19/2011-1:31pm at 1:31 pm (UTC -4)
Yes TRS, but Reyes had three full years of unquestioned all-star, among the best in the game performances from 2006–2008—offensively, defensively, and running the bases.
Pagan had a few good months and is older.
TRS86
1/19/2011-1:40pm at 1:40 pm (UTC -4)
True so wouldn’t that mean that we should for sure throw out those couple of negative months for Reyes considering he has proven himself?
LOL.
As for Pagan he has had more good than bad while here for sure. This will be a big year for him to prove himself either way.
stickguy
1/19/2011-12:42pm at 12:42 pm (UTC -4)
well, Real knows how to get the hits flowing!
Santana? Good pitcher, but not that great. He was pretty good in 2008 era+ of 127). But 2009 he missed 1/3 of the season, and was pretty lousy when he did pitch. 2010, he pitched a full year, with mediocre #s (era+ 104). K rate down, BB rate up.
actually, he has been very consistant (not great, just consistant) every year besides 2008, which looks like a huge statistical outlier.
IOW, the same arguement TRS used against Grienke, you can use against Ervin.
he also is far from cheap (at least Garza was relatively budget friendly)
I would still like to have him, but not for Reyes. Now Pagan, tht could be a different story!
TRS86
1/19/2011-12:46pm at 12:46 pm (UTC -4)
Again if Sandy thinks that Reyes will not be here past this year then you have to think about it.
fongy2
1/19/2011-12:51pm at 12:51 pm (UTC -4)
Sure, in July. Just not yet.
TRS86
1/19/2011-12:55pm at 12:55 pm (UTC -4)
Like I said I have no idea what Sandy is willing to do or really what kind of package Reyes might receive. I still think comparing him to Crawford is bad business.
stickguy
1/19/2011-12:59pm at 12:59 pm (UTC -4)
bad for who? It is what the agent and the other GMs are going to be doing.
and it only takes one desperate/foolish/deep pocketed GM to take the plunge.
TRS86
1/19/2011-1:01pm at 1:01 pm (UTC -4)
If they are going to take a foolish plunge then let them. At least for once it would be someone else taking that foolish plunge.
stickguy
1/19/2011-12:53pm at 12:53 pm (UTC -4)
obviously I don’t know what Sandy thinks, or is willing to do.
but surmising from comments and not wanting to give out crazy long contracts, I think that if reyes starts the season as a lame duck, he is gone. He will have a big year, and some team will offer crawford type deal for him. And I don’t expect the mets to match it.
I don’t think he gets traded during the year, but I do see him waling.
stickguy
1/19/2011-12:50pm at 12:50 pm (UTC -4)
OH, Knog ans his .321 again! I hope you go to the liquor store and play that in the lottery everyday.
To reiterate my post of a couple weeks back about Reyes, he IS the same guy.
in 2009, before his tendon problem, he was the same as always. Even his usual .355ish OBP.
In 2010, he missed ST and came back after roughly a full year away to get into shape in the majors. And he was hopeless for about a month (40ish games, or roughly the length of ST). But once he got back into the groove, over the last 2/3 of the season (~93 games played), he hit like the old Jose.
11 HRs and quite a few RBIs (projecting to 20/80ish over 162). His OBP was also ~.345, so only slightly lower than normal (and that was higher than Pagan did for the season). His slugging % was at career high levels. And this included playing wrapped up with an oblique pull, instead of taking 2 weeks to let it heal.
so, IMO, reyes is actually starting to hit his peak years. Power is increasing too.
If he can avoid another nagging muscle injury (hell, even with a minor one) just being able to have a full ST and start the season ready, he is going to have a monster year. I think he can easily put up the numbers crawford did last year (maybe a few less steals) playing a premium position. Hell, CC only had a normal reyes OBP of .355 last eyar!
and he is going to get paid for it.
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-12:53pm at 12:53 pm (UTC -4)
Word to somebody’s Momma on that post!
fongy2
1/19/2011-12:54pm at 12:54 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed! This guy is a once in a generation player for any organization AND he’s still 27. He’s not a dog, he’s never been
a distraction, doesn’t seem to be high maintence and should be entering his prime seasons now b/t 28 and 32.
kingman 26
1/19/2011-1:32pm at 1:32 pm (UTC -4)
Guess what—in a few months we will all see!!
And while I love me some Las Vegas every chance I get, I don’t play the lottery—as a wise man said, it is a tax on the stupid.
TRS86
1/19/2011-1:02pm at 1:02 pm (UTC -4)
Changing subjects for a line or 2.
Terry said he thinks 4 rotation guys are set. So to me that means that Capuano is not a lock for the rotation as I have mentioned considering his relief incentives in his contract.
stickguy
1/19/2011-1:07pm at 1:07 pm (UTC -4)
Probably. I would say that right now, he is most likely the #5, unless he does not look strong in ST and Gee does.
I also think they are hoping (or at least willing) to bring in another SP option (like the discussion about Gallaraga), and that would for sure would puch Capuano to the pen (which is actually something I consider to be a good thing, it means the SP is probably better than many expected).
metsfan4decades
1/19/2011-1:12pm at 1:12 pm (UTC -4)
I have to agree. It’s gonna be more or less, ‘may the best man win’ that job in ST.
Mr North Jersey
1/19/2011-1:07pm at 1:07 pm (UTC -4)
Reyes will get us a good arm come the trading deadline as Tejada steps in at SS the rest of the way.
OK Now let me step back and make some room.
stickguy
1/19/2011-1:08pm at 1:08 pm (UTC -4)
somewhere in Bayonne NJ a man is nodding his head and weeping to here the name Tejada mentioned in such a positive light.
Mr North Jersey
1/19/2011-1:11pm at 1:11 pm (UTC -4)
No he would be crying cause he likes Reyes and hates Wright. He would love to see Wright traded like Yesterday.
metsfan4decades
1/19/2011-1:14pm at 1:14 pm (UTC -4)
Ah…the infamous ‘Bayonne’ on MMO…..
stickguy
1/19/2011-1:19pm at 1:19 pm (UTC -4)
But he loves Tejada, so maybe that would balance out?
I still don’t understand his pathological hatred of Wright. But he is funny when he gets going!
Mr North Jersey
1/19/2011-1:55pm at 1:55 pm (UTC -4)
His latest routine is that Young & Capuano are high risk migh reward cause he claims if either or both get injured the Mets season could be over.
I never knew the Mets season was riding on the backs of them until he said it.
Also that the Harris signing is great cause he has shown to be a clutch player based on the games vs the Mets as opposed to MR unclutch Wright.
Oh and that it’s hard to criticize Amaro jr who has been in the Phillies fron office since 1998 and who inherited a W.S. winner in 2008 because he has the 4 Aces in the rotation.
Yet criticizing Alderson who has been on the job as Mets GM for a whole 4 months is easy.
Just luvin it
kistics
1/19/2011-2:01pm at 2:01 pm (UTC -4)
Is this Alex?
Mr North Jersey
1/19/2011-2:06pm at 2:06 pm (UTC -4)
No alex has been gone for a while now
TRS86
1/19/2011-1:09pm at 1:09 pm (UTC -4)
Not sure Tejada will be the answer there but I can see your scenario occurring. Question is does Reyes net us more now or more then?
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-1:10pm at 1:10 pm (UTC -4)
Let’s just teach Murphy yet another position as well as how to pitch to have him be the ultimate utility guy and he can fill in at SS as Havens finally makes the leap!
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-1:12pm at 1:12 pm (UTC -4)
Go Big Murph!
Prismo
1/19/2011-1:10pm at 1:10 pm (UTC -4)
If Tejada’s the answer, Sandy’s stint as GM will be very short-lived!
Mr North Jersey
1/19/2011-1:13pm at 1:13 pm (UTC -4)
LoL
TRS86
1/19/2011-1:15pm at 1:15 pm (UTC -4)
I think it’s too early to start knocking Tejada but it’s also too early to say he’s a replacement anything.
kingman 26
1/19/2011-1:34pm at 1:34 pm (UTC -4)
Without much, much more pitching, it won’t matter anyhow.
TRS86
1/19/2011-1:38pm at 1:38 pm (UTC -4)
Thus my go get Ervin theory.
kistics
1/19/2011-1:54pm at 1:54 pm (UTC -4)
Michael Ervin…
metsfan4decades
1/19/2011-1:13pm at 1:13 pm (UTC -4)
What? LOL….
I like Tejada. However, I see him as nothing more than a Buddy Harrelson type player.
kistics
1/19/2011-1:29pm at 1:29 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t see Reyes getting a good arm in return. He’s not even a type-A FA this point because of his injuries.
We all know what he’s capable of when healthy, but based on facts past 2 seasons, he won’t be returning much in return.
TRS86
1/19/2011-1:38pm at 1:38 pm (UTC -4)
Not sure about that. Agreed he alone right not is not netting an ace.
kistics
1/19/2011-1:39pm at 1:39 pm (UTC -4)
So you’re saying trade someone like Reyes and Ike for an ace?
Interesting…
TRS86
1/19/2011-1:42pm at 1:42 pm (UTC -4)
Not Ike. Can’t do that at this point. But prospects? Yeah. I was not saying even an ace. My point a long time ago was pulling on the Angels string for Ervin Santana. See how desperate they now are to make a move with all the fan pressure they have after missing out on Crawford, Beltre and Soriano.
metsfan4decades
1/19/2011-1:11pm at 1:11 pm (UTC -4)
And Fongy…concerning FMart – we could make a post of what his ceiling/potential is all by itself. Much speculation on that one.
Somewhere on some blog last night I read where someone proposed trading Pagan now ’cause we had Captain Kirk and FMart waiting in the wings. Now…I’m thinking to myself…Beltran is gone after this year. Are they proposing a starting OF of Bay/CO Kirk/FMart next year? And I’m thinking to myself ‘Yikes’……
TRS86
1/19/2011-1:15pm at 1:15 pm (UTC -4)
That’s my point in trading Pagan. We have no replacement waiting and signing one in FA will cost a lot more money than what Pagan will cost and will most likely be older as well. While I know the same could be said for Reyes in terms of replacement and FA, however, we are talking about a huge difference in cost and prospects obtained in the trade. Pagan does not net us a game changer or really a piece for the future. Reyes should, otherwise why trade him?
stickguy
1/19/2011-1:17pm at 1:17 pm (UTC -4)
would you trade him straight up for Ervin, or an equivilant SP?
That is why you would consider it, if you were getting back something you need more.
trading him now means you are betting on Beltran making it through the year in CF, and that you can find someone as good as Pagan for 2012.
TRS86
1/19/2011-1:23pm at 1:23 pm (UTC -4)
That’s the thing, Pagan nets you no where near a pitcher of Ervin’s caliber. Of course I would but Pagan nets you a back-end guy at best.
You could make the case that we have more depth at SS in the system than CF.
kistics
1/19/2011-1:36pm at 1:36 pm (UTC -4)
Michael Ervin?
TRS86
1/19/2011-1:37pm at 1:37 pm (UTC -4)
Yup.
stickguy
1/19/2011-1:15pm at 1:15 pm (UTC -4)
I just remembered something thanks to Tx.
Tejada does not have to be the heir apparent in the system.
Havens was actually drafted (and played 2008 and 2009) as a SS. Let him play there if Reyes leaves, and at least they will be getting some offense out of the spot!
he only moved to 2B in 2010. I am sure there is some of the projection issues (like with Flores) going on, but I seem to recall him being a respectable SS. So not sure how much of the move was predicated on he can’t play the position, vs. he was on the fast track and blocked by Jose but not Castillo?
TRS86
1/19/2011-1:16pm at 1:16 pm (UTC -4)
I thought it was basically determined he would eventually need to make the switch but was forced to early because of lack of depth at the position.
TRS86
1/19/2011-1:18pm at 1:18 pm (UTC -4)
However, as of TODAY and you guys know I don’t overvalue prospects often, the thought of having Ike, Flores, Havens and Wright on the infield would be interesting.
stickguy
1/19/2011-1:20pm at 1:20 pm (UTC -4)
and (with one exception) cheap.
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-1:25pm at 1:25 pm (UTC -4)
Wright, Havens, Murphy, Fielder!
Bay, Pagan, Flores
Thole
I couldn’t resist.
njstuckintx
1/19/2011-1:27pm at 1:27 pm (UTC -4)
See what my nonsensical jokes lead too! Should read Ike, not Flores, but then again, with fielder, Ike becomes a chip. So, yeah, Ike was traded for some stud pitcher. yeah, that’s what i meant.
In seriousness, It’s such speculation trying to figure out the SS fill in for the Mets, as basically no one barring Tejada actually projects to end up as a shortstop.
kingman 26
1/19/2011-1:33pm at 1:33 pm (UTC -4)
FIELDER!
YES!
Ike to RF.
TRS86
1/19/2011-1:37pm at 1:37 pm (UTC -4)
If Fielder continues that “diet” he is on we won’t need a RF he can play both.
kistics
1/19/2011-1:38pm at 1:38 pm (UTC -4)
holy cow that would be some sight!
TRS86
1/19/2011-1:40pm at 1:40 pm (UTC -4)
Now come on. I know I used a fat joke but did you have to call him a cow?
kistics
1/19/2011-1:41pm at 1:41 pm (UTC -4)
I did not say anything to offend any cows….
kingman 26
1/19/2011-2:13pm at 2:13 pm (UTC -4)
LOL!
kistics
1/19/2011-1:37pm at 1:37 pm (UTC -4)
Thought Flores was moving to 3B.
TRS86
1/19/2011-1:40pm at 1:40 pm (UTC -4)
Not moving anywhere yet that I know of.
kistics
1/19/2011-1:43pm at 1:43 pm (UTC -4)
Do you know how he is defensively?
I heard that Havens is not exactly Golden Glove 2B either. If you have Fielder and Havens, that would not be a good defensive right side of IF.
metsfan4decades
1/19/2011-1:49pm at 1:49 pm (UTC -4)
I’ve been reading that Flores is not exactly ‘fleet of feet’ out there. They were concentrating on his bat up until just recently, now they’re working on his defense. He doesn’t project to have great range at SS and was thought he would eventually be moved. To where, I can’t remember….
TRS86
1/19/2011-1:51pm at 1:51 pm (UTC -4)
They are mostly just predicting right now but are not close to moving him based on what I have gathered. Take that MC>
If they do the suggestion has been to a corner IF/OF spot just due to size.
TRS86
1/19/2011-1:50pm at 1:50 pm (UTC -4)
I think you have to give Havens time. The Phillies have managed with Utley and Howard. I would think we could with Fielder and whomever. However, I don’t see us touching Fielder anyway.
kistics
1/19/2011-1:53pm at 1:53 pm (UTC -4)
I wish I was at the Citifield too…