In all the drama that has followed the Mets since Fred Wilpon took over, I tried to comfort myself by saying “He’s a self made billionaire, he’s got to have some idea what is going on”. Turns out he’s been a key cog (wittingly or otherwise) in the biggest Ponzi scheme in history. The Wilpons have said all along that they are amongst the victims here – and if they are to be believed the personal betrayal is breathtaking. But regardless of who knew what when, the Wilpons sure are victims now, whether it is of a nefarious scheme or their own irrational exuberance (or worse) is a matter for the courts to decide. And let’s face it, very few of us would understand all the details of this case were they to be dropped in our laps – and they haven’t been. Much speculation has been made on the future of the organization, and who will be running it both in the near future and long term. Generally, this has been met with trepidation by the fan base, and with good reason. Almost all of us have had issues with ‘Freddie Coupons’ in the past and believe whole heartedly that “Jeff Wilpon” is baseball speak for “James Dolan”, but still, it’s the devil you know… Facing into the great unknown of an ownership in financial turmoil, most fans look back longingly at the good ol’ days of ‘05-‘06, when the team was bringing up prospects, flashing cash, and winning games. Those days seem like a long time ago.
But can Madoff actually help the new front office regime of Sandy Alderson? IN terms of the minor league system, then answer may be yes. The rare baseball related stories to come out about the Mets this winter have focused on their lack of player personnel movement, an inertia that is due directly to the club’s inability or unwillingness to spend heavily when they are being sued for hundreds of millions of dollars. For the Mets fan who understands that the Minaya regime left a multi-year rebuilding project in its wake – Madoff or no – this current scandal may give Sandy & Co. the cover to do what Fred & Jeff are unable to do in baseball (and maybe elsewhere): use their money wisely.
In 2009, the first season after Madoff was arrested, the Mets broke with tradition and exceeded the MLB slot recommendations for draft picks when they signed second rounder, and Long Island native, Steve Matz for $895,000 (slot was about $507,000). Many pointed out that the Mets had money to throw around since they didn’t have a first rounder to spend on, and with that in mind, under $1MM for your top pick was not all that impressive (Matz has yet to pitch above instructional league due to Tommy John surgery). In 2010, the beat went on as the Mets again went over slot for the 7th overall pick in the draft, University of North Carolina’s Matt Harvey, who sign for $2.5MM (slot was $2.2MM). In both years, with a late round exception in each, the Mets towed the line in slot bonuses the rest of the way. In previous drafts, the Mets were criticized for not flexing their perceived financial muscle. Now, the question is do they have financial muscle to flex?
The Mets have spent less than $8MM on the last two drafts combined. The small market Royals have spent over $13MM. The Pirates dropped almost $12MM on the 2010 draft alone! With the Wilpons ability to run the Good Ship Mets coming into question on a daily basis, Alderson and his deputies (JP Riccardi and Paul DePodesta) all known for being able to construct a strong farm system, have a great chance to convince Fred & Jeff that a slight increase in financial outlay – from say $4MM per draft to $7MM this year (the Mets have the 13th & 44th overall selections), and then letting the new brass do what they do best, could boost the minor league talent level, and in the midst of a season where they are not expected to be competitive, show the fan base that they have the financial wherewithal to make improvements. This would be a nice precursor to the 2011 offseason when some $50MM is expected to come off the books, and then we’ll see for sure what kind of shape this franchise is in.
23 comments
TRS86
2/11/2011-7:55am at 7:55 am (UTC -4)
Here’s my question. Isn’t how much you spend on the draft also relative to how high your picks are and how many you have?
Example, I would expect the Rays to spend the most this year. They signed no type A FA and get about 10 extra picks.
Ceetar
2/11/2011-9:04am at 9:04 am (UTC -4)
Just like there is no direct correlation from money->wins, same for money/draft pick -> majors.
Sometimes the guy you want will sign for slot. or less.
in truth, the whole thing is a scam. exposed partially in moneyball, where Billy Beane basically told a guy ‘we’re drafting you higher, but can’t pay you so you’re going to take _this_ ignore what agents say after we take you that high. We can’t pay you slot, if you ask for more money you won’t get signed”
metsfan4decades
2/11/2011-9:07am at 9:07 am (UTC -4)
That’s it this year? 13th and 44th?
Part of the problem over the past several years is not only not going over slot, but not having a multitude of draft picks to begin with. I feel we ‘gave away’ some of our picks, especially when the direction Omar went in instead didn’t pan out. Given the fact that few draft picks go on to major league careers, every little bit counts – even sandwich picks and the like that can be accumulated.
Who knows? Even with the FO changes and the state of the budget, if we had a multitude of very good rated prospects down there we might have seen a trade this off season for a more stable front end type starting pitcher. We certainly didn’t have many prospects ranked on the top 100 list – no matter whose list you looked at.
I agree with many who have stated this before…..the Mets have to do better with drafting and signings, both in evaluating talent, signing the best with the picks (slotting be damned) and accumulating as many draft picks as they can.
TRS86
2/11/2011-9:23am at 9:23 am (UTC -4)
Right, some of it was poor judgment. Was it 2009 where the Mets picked two kids that were unlikely to sign anyway, demanded outrageous prices and went unsigned?
Ceetar
2/11/2011-9:31am at 9:31 am (UTC -4)
think that was ’08. I think those two were at the crux of the general feelings about the Mets farm system.
There is no given formula or path. yes, not being afraid to pay overslot on a guy you want is important, but sometimes the guys “projected” to be first rounders aren’t deserving of it and giving them that much money could be a waste. And the whole “spent less” was a lot in part because of the less amount of picks, but it was still used to spin the story in a negative way.
Also if Murphy does indeed get the job the Mets will be fielding 6/8 position players that they drafted. And 2 or 3 of 5 of the rotation will be homegrown.
metsfan4decades
2/11/2011-10:03am at 10:03 am (UTC -4)
‘Also if Murphy does indeed get the job the Mets will be fielding 6/8 position players that they drafted. And 2 or 3 of 5 of the rotation will be homegrown.’
This is a good thing but it speaks more to the health of the minor league system several years ago and not necessarily right now. We’ve got some nice prospects down there – we just don’t have a multitude of them, don’t really have depth (like a couple at one position) and certainly don’t have enough highly rated prospects across the board. I know that can all change from year to year though.
Ceetar
2/11/2011-10:09am at 10:09 am (UTC -4)
true, but I just mean “Waaah, we never went over slot and it’s all a mess!” part of the reason is because we emptied it.
Can’t speak to the rotation yet, but the offense, the 6/8, is actually very good.
TRS86
2/11/2011-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
While true, things change so much in the minors from year to year. Not much press for Duda (other than Stick), could be Flores, Havens, or some of those young guys that really took off in their first year last year. Who knows. I think the farm is deeper than it is given credit for, just missing the star power.
stickguy
2/11/2011-11:02am at 11:02 am (UTC -4)
the star power issue is the key to the negative impressions IMO. People get seduced by the “star” guys, and discount the very good players that could have a long career. There aren’t that many Posey’s to go around.
and you touch on another of my favorite topics (pet peeves?) Farm systems are extremely fluid. With guys going to the show and a fresh wave every year, along with guys booming or busting every season, relative rankings (and perceptions) can change quickly. Almost like a college basketball team.
Since you mention Duda, perfect example. Pretty much an after thought prior to 2010 (solid producer, but not really “sexy” enough to get attention), who then busts out and has a huge year (he led something in slugging, not sure if it was th eminors or one of his leagues). In any case, he had a monster year.
But, since he isn’t a clear defensive whiz (and hell, he looks like Lerch), and he was not ranked at the top of the stud prospect list before, he is considered a nobody with no future by many, regardless of the production he put up.
and this is exactly the type of guy smart GMs snap up from other systems and get major value out of (Jayson Werth was similar before going to the Phils, but not quite the same).
metsfan4decades
2/11/2011-11:11am at 11:11 am (UTC -4)
Take Mejia. I believe he would have been pretty high up on the overall prospect lists but he didn’t qualify anymore. Kind of bogus because he really wasn’t ready to be up here yet, we haven’t seen him since May(?) and likely won’t see him for a while yet. But he is down there and he is considered a very good ‘prospect’ – just not technically anymore.
stickguy
2/11/2011-11:15am at 11:15 am (UTC -4)
people fo get hung up on arguing this stuff. but bottom line, the farm is just another tool to support the big club. So you can’t “win” the fram system, the only thing that counts is how the Mets do.
and you are right that some teams get penalized in the rankings, and since the mets seem to be (or hopefully, were!) the biggest botcher of a prospects eligibility, they should be given a little more love.
fongy2
2/11/2011-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
Spot on.
fongy2
2/11/2011-10:26am at 10:26 am (UTC -4)
It’s nice that we might be fielding 6 of 8 everyday players from our own
system BUT Reyes and Wright came out of that system a decade ago
and despite the fact that I really like Thole and Ike, none of these guys
appear to be superstars, so ???………….. What exactly does it mean
that most of our everyday line-up is home grown??
I’m just hoping Kirk and Harvey turn things up this season and go from
being good, solid prospects to potential star type prospects who will
become fixtures in the near future.
TRS86
2/11/2011-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
They don’t have to be superstars to be very vital to the team.
Ceetar
2/11/2011-11:00am at 11:00 am (UTC -4)
None of them are exactly “just here cause we don’t got no one else” either. 2B/Murphy may be a transition period, but Pagan is excellent, Wright and Reyes are superstars, and Davis looks like he could be very good. Thole looks like he can be helpful.
It means that despite people criticizing our drafting year after year, it’s actually been fairly fruitful.
Not to mention the other two, Bay and Beltran, aren’t exactly scrubs.
stickguy
2/11/2011-11:04am at 11:04 am (UTC -4)
it also means that you are getting very cost effective production at a number of spots, so you can spend your big $$ at other positions that are lacking. Assuming you can find a guy worth spending it on!
Ceetar
2/11/2011-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
Allows you to live with overpaying guys too, if you can support the other positions with younger guys. So maybe Reyes and Frankie make a tad more in 2012 than we’d like them to, but it doesn’t hamstring them because they’re getting production 1B/CF/C cheaper.
fongy2
2/11/2011-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
“Fruitful”???…..Really??!!….O.K., I guess if you wanna include Wright and Reyes, BUT that’s a stretch. I do agree though, it’s
not been nearly as bad as most have stated the past few years.
It still doesn’t excuse Omar’s overall job performance though.
I mean, as bad as Isiah was as GM of The Knicks he came up
with some late 1st round as well as some really good 2nd round
gems. So…….
I think this season will see alot of improvement from Minor leaguers who’ve stagnated in the system. New suits and better Managers/ Coaches throughout the Minors can only be helpful.
It seemed that Tony B., Pena, Omar etc never really had a focused plan but rather one that changed year to year and draft to draft. Again, whatever happens this season it’s good to have
professionals running things.
TRS86
2/11/2011-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
Not trying to exonerate Omar at all. Just saying that even having this many guys from recent drafts turn out to be league average is more than many teams can say.
fongy2
2/11/2011-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
No….I know that, jjust my way of getting another Omar shot
in
I’m not very hopeful for much success this season, record wise BUT am hopeful and think the most interesting and important thing our new FO can do is figure out whos for
real and whos not in the system as well as figure out whats
gonna happen with Reyes’ future.
It’s alot more comforting though that Omar and his homey’s
aren’t the one tryin’ to figure this all out.
stickguy
2/11/2011-11:58am at 11:58 am (UTC -4)
I agree 100% that the biggest benefit (and reason to make the move) to getting sandy over Omar was to fix the organization, bottom up.
especially this year, the moves on the 25 man were really window dressing. and in many ways, the “easy” part of the GM job, especially when you are able to play checkbook BB with the FA pool.
even the draft is only partly on the GM, that is the scouting people (but again, the GM has to put the right folks in place, with the right mission statement).
if the organization has seemed to lack anything, it is a cohesive game plan on how to identify, acquire and develop talent.
stickguy
2/11/2011-11:54am at 11:54 am (UTC -4)
as to the premise of the piece, yes, it could be a “silver lining”. Maybe more appropriately it gives them a little bit of cover to retool.
I still say that even if madoff had not blown up like this, and omar was still here, that nothing big was happeneing payroll wise anyway. pushing 150 (where it is or was at least 2 of 3 years, and 2010 if you count Bay’s bonus) seems to be the gasp for breath piont that the team (under normal circumstances) can support. Basically, Omar spent his entire allowance for the 2011 season before the 2010 one began!
This will be a very interesting year, with at least 3, and possible 6, young guys looking to establish a beach head (murphy/emaus, Thole, Gee, Duda) and/or prove they are really a legit starter (Ike, Neise). Combine that unknown, with somewhere between a lot and a shitload of payroll coming off the books after this year, and the immediate future should be very interesting.
and, the GM will have some serious work to do going forward (I am in the miority in thinking he did a lot this year, but he needs to step it up a bunch after this, with way more to accomplish). And the most important aspect is picking the path to follow. One path will be a lower payroll one, which could have been chosen even if the team was flush, but now, right or wrongly, any payroll reduction is likely to be blamed on madoff/broke owners, and not on a viable business plan!
fongy2
2/11/2011-12:00pm at 12:00 pm (UTC -4)
Well I don’t think “he’s done alot” BUT I don’t have much of a problem with that or whats been done so far.
I understand that when you have structural problems you can’t just
put new siding up or paint, you have to go to work from the inside
-out and from ground-up. Sure, the new paint job would look great,
BUT it ain’t gonna solve the problems of a crumbling house.
And the house was starting to rot and crumble.