With all the questions looming for the Mets as the 2011 season draws closer, perhaps none is more important than whether Ike Davis is going to be an elite first baseman. Why, you might ask, is this more important that the Beltran/Reyes/Madoff/Johan-related questions? Well, look at the Free Agent Class for the upcoming offseason. The two clearly elite players are Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, both, of course, first basemen. The question then, is whether it will be worth it to hold on to Ike Davis or move on and upgrade via Albert or Prince.
So, let’s see what the stats tell us about Ike and more importantly what we can expect going forward.
Here was Ike’s line in 2010, his rookie year:
| Avg. | OBP | SLG. | HR | BB% | BABIP | K% | |
| 2010 | .264 | .351 | .440 | 19 | 12 | .321 | 26.4 |
Are these elite numbers? Not for a first baseman (let’s put aside for a moment Ike’s stellar defense). But, you might be saying, Ike was just a rookie. Surely, he’ll improve. And that’s the proposition I want to test today. Let me start with the optimistic data points:
Reasons Ike Will Get Better:
His September last year: .330/.427/.524 with 4 homers.
His strike outs by month from May through September:
| Month | Strike outs |
| May | 30 |
| June | 26 |
| July | 28 |
| Aug | 25 |
| September | 21 |
Adjusted for park effect here was his “translated” line for 2010: .287/.376/.477 with 22 homers and a .290 TAv.
Bill James thinks he will get better: His projection for Ike–.283/.374/.488 with 23 home runs.
Reasons to worry:
Ike swung at 27.3% of the pitches he saw that were out of the strike zone (a high number, particularly for someone who walks as often as Ike does).
His .321 BABIP is high for someone without much speed and without top-notch power (note however that in the minors in both ’08 and ’09 Ike had even higher BABIP’s, suggesting that it might not be luck).
Baseball Prospectus and Marcel (the two other leading projection systems) don’t foresee great things for Ike. The prospectus line: .252/.335/.406 with 12 homers; Marcel: .273/.357/.443 with 15 homers.
What should we think:
To understand why Marcel and Baseball Prospectus are “down” on Ike, it’s really all about BABIP and power. Marcel thinks Ike’s BABIP will stay around last year’s level. Prospectus thinks that Ike’s BABIP is going to regress to .310, in which case he’s probably not going to do especially well. Because Ike isn’t yet a “power hitter” his value if that’s true is limited. James, in contrast, thinks Ike’s BABIP is going to improve to .336, in which case he will get better. It’s pretty much that simple.
So who’s right? The answer is we don’t know yet. But it’s clear that Ike isn’t a sure thing. The real question is, is Ike Davis the hitter we saw both when he first arrived and in September, or is he more like the hitter who struggled for the better part of the summer.
The jury is still out, but I don’t think Ike is going to be as bad as Prospectus suggests. The problem for the Mets is he may be what Marcel thinks he is. And he may not get that much better. To see what I mean, let’s look at the first and second year lines for five of the elite first basemen in the major leagues:
| Player | Y1 | Y2 |
| Albert Pujols | .329/.403/.610 | .314/.394/.561 |
| Joey Votto | .297/.368/.506 | .322/.414/.567 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | .304/.362/.500 | .282/.347/.502 |
| Mark Teixeira | .259/.331/.480 | .281/.370/.560 |
| Prince Fielder | .271/.347/.483 | .288/.395/.618 |
The good news is that 3 of those 5 guys improved from Y1 to Y2 (of course that means that two guys didn’t improve at all). And the bad news is that all of those guys had more power than Ike as rookies. In some cases, substantially more.
To make matters worse, let’s look at Y1 and Y2 for a player Ike is often compared to: Adam LaRoche.
Y1: .278/.333/.488 with a .328 BABIP.
Y2: .259/.320/.455 with a .277 BABIP.
There are just no guarantees a player gets better in his second season.
But remember, Ike’s translated line was significantly better (.477 SLG) when the negative effect of Citi Field is taken into account. That places Ike’s slugging percentage in line with the rookie years of both Teixeira and Fielder – two guys who saw incredible improvements from Y1 to Y2 (although it also is close to LaRoche who declined). In addition, Ike might have been unlucky against right-handed pitchers last year. His .301 BABIP is exactly average. However, as we discussed earlier, Ike seems to be able to put up a BABIP in the .320 range. If he produces at those numbers, his batting average could go way up. Thus, it is possible Ike could take the proverbial “next step” in 2011.
So, what do I think is realistic for Ike in 2011? How about the following line: .275/.350/.460 with 21 homers. Elite? Not quite. If the Mets can only make the team better for 2012 by signing an elite first baseman, they will have to think about doing so. But for what it’s worth, I hope they don’t have to.
5 comments
stickguy
2/13/2011-12:07pm at 12:07 pm (UTC -4)
I think Ike will improve next year. He did get better at the end of the year (suggesting he made adjustments as required). He also had relatively few PAs in the minors (and probably less than most of the guys on your chart), so to an extant he was still learning on the job.
as to power, based on some of the bombs he hit, he has plenty! how many HRs it translates to remains to be seen of course. But if he plays a full season and only has 12 HRs (B.P. prediction) I would be shocked. I think they just took Murphy’s 2009 numbers and assigned them to Ike.
trying to be that precise, on a guy only going into his 2nd year, is way too much guess work.
so, if I have to take a guess, he will jump up more like Teix and Prince. Not become Laroche.
OH, I have a MAJOR bone to pick with your analysis. For A Gon, that was his 3rd season. He played 2 years (part time) before that, and in over 200 ABs he had a .270 OBP and .390 slugging %. In Texas, a bandbox.
entirely possible if Ike had had a couple hundred Abs his 1st year to get into the flow, and see what he had to work on, his first full year #s would have been a bit better (at least more consistent).
last comment, I would bet (if forced) that Pujols will stay with the Cards. Fielder though is going to be an interesting decision for a number of teams.
metsfan4decades
2/13/2011-1:37pm at 1:37 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t know what to say about Ike. This time last year, he was barely on anyone’s radar. He has a great ST where he hit some long HRs (although he had more than a fair share of errors), goes down to start the season and continues hitting, some 6 weeks later he’s the Mets starting 1st baseman. It’s not like there was much hype prior to that and we were all waiting for him to be ready to take Delgado’s place.
He played stellar defense last year and put up some nice numbers. I think he does have the potential for power. I noticed that he – along with Duda – don’t seem to be cheated by Citi’s dimensions when they do hit the long ball. Good thing b/c I don’t think he’s that fast a runner.
This year will certainly be telling. I’d like nothing better than to see him put up consistently better numbers but I’m a little leery yet. I don’t think he’ll ever be Pulols elite but it sure would be nice to pencil him in as our 1st baseman for the next several years.
stickguy
2/13/2011-1:56pm at 1:56 pm (UTC -4)
funny, but I thought he was getting lots of hype (and anticipation) after his 2009 MiL season. Perception is reality though!
I also think that evaluating a guy like this is where too heavily relying on saber #s can bite you in the arse. You really need to watch him with an expert eye, to really project what he will become. that also requires looking at his history (college and minors) to see what he was before arriving in the majors. ABs (or IPs) in the minors is also important. almost a question of is the guy still learing/developing, or is he “done”?
looking big picture, you can easily predict 2 different futures for 2 guys that put up essentially identical numbers.
metsfan4decades
2/13/2011-6:07pm at 6:07 pm (UTC -4)
I’m no saber expert so…those that are, would you have been able to predict Franceour’s swift and fast decline after year 2 in the majors – based on his amateur and minor league numbers? From what I understand he was suppose to be the Braves next generation Chipper. Think he had his own SI cover the first year he came up.
Now…if he doesn’t change his approach at the plate and do it soon, he’s likely to be out of baseball by 30.
So how much does saber #s pre major league actually predict this kind of stuff?
metsfan2011
2/13/2011-6:32pm at 6:32 pm (UTC -4)
you absolutely could have predicted Francoeur’s demise — using his big league stats. Indeed, most people viewed it as a question of when, not if. For Francoeur, it was actually pretty simple, it’s very hard to be successful without any patience at the plate. Eventually, pitchers realized that Francoeur swings at everything. Thus, they stopped throwing him strikes.