It’s no secret that the primary strength of the Mets farm system is in its outfielders. One big (literally) reason for that is Lucas Duda, who made his big league debut this past September with the Mets, capping off his best season as a professional. After a slow and sluggish start to his big league career, Duda finally caught on and finished the season strong, getting his average over .200, which was quite the accomplishment considering his start in the big leagues, to go along with his 10 extra-base hits in 29 games for the Mets.
Duda possesses the power that major league teams search for and covet. However, it’s been a long road to become major league ready for Duda, with his development coming at a slow and steady pace. During the first three years of his professional career, Duda showed mere flashes of his power potential while striking out far too often. When 2010 began, he was barely a blip on the prospect radar. But then Duda exploded with the bat, hitting more home runs in 2010 than his previous three years combined, while also lowering his strikeout rate and producing the highest on-base percentage of his career. This performance earned Duda his well-deserved September call up to the big leagues.
Now going into 2011, where does Duda stand? At first glance, his chances to break spring training with the major league club don’t appear too good. Although he was a little better than advertised last September, he is not strong defensively. He is limited to playing either first base or left field, where he is sitting behind Ike Davis and Jason Bay respectively: two guys that the Mets can’t afford to take out of the lineup. At both of his positions, saying Duda is an average defender would be considered a stretch, which should make playing time even harder to come by, especially at spacious Citi Field. There’s no doubt that Duda must settle for a spot on the Mets bench if he’s going to make their opening day roster, but with his defensive liabilities and lack of flexibility, as well as the competition he’ll face, there may not be room for Lucas Duda and his power bat on the Mets opening day roster.
However, there is plenty that Duda can contribute to the Mets organization in 2011. In fact, staying in the minor leagues to begin the season may be the way to get the most value out of Duda. One thing the Mets have been lacking in the past few years, and an area where they have been exposed, is not having major league ready players in the farm system to step in if one of their regulars heads to the disabled list. That is exactly what Duda would represent in AAA for the Mets: a guy who is ready to play every day in replacement of an injured player. He would be able to fill in for either Jason Bay or Ike Davis in case either needs to miss an extended period of time. As discussed earlier, there would be a drop off with Duda playing at either of these positions, especially defensively. However, he does have the power to make up for some of his shortcomings in other areas. Also, using Duda as a replacement is a far more desirable option than taking a bench player and turning him into an everyday player, which would significantly weaken the bench. Such a scenario would make Duda an important part of the Mets plans in 2011, even if that means him starting the season in AAA.
17 comments
metsfan4decades
2/15/2011-1:26pm at 1:26 pm (UTC -4)
Wish I could say I didn’t agree with you, since I really like Duda’s bat. I think they’re going to need all the power they can get. We never really replaced Delgado’s bat in the lineup (although I guess that’s what Bay was suppose to provide last year?), and Duda certainly does not get cheated when he hits one out at Citi Field.
I still think the way to go is hope Bay shows a good first half and trade him and his contract mid season. Use that money towards resigning Reyes, let Duda have a shot at LF second half.
TRS86
2/15/2011-1:42pm at 1:42 pm (UTC -4)
I really don’t think Bay is going any where and honestly I am not concerned with that. He is a professional guy and I am sure he will rebound to some extent.
As for Duda, lets see him do it again in AAA for a half season and see what happens. By then hopefully Beltran is being dumped and there will be room.
metsfan4decades
2/15/2011-2:07pm at 2:07 pm (UTC -4)
I still think Bay is expendable, especially with that contract.
But I’m not on any hate crusade to get rid of him.
TRS86
2/15/2011-2:12pm at 2:12 pm (UTC -4)
Just depends on what level he is going to hit at and how competitive we expect to be the next 3 years.
stickguy
2/15/2011-2:42pm at 2:42 pm (UTC -4)
duda? Who’s that?
interesting fact. Duda is the spanish word for “doubt”.
Dirtysanchez
2/15/2011-2:44pm at 2:44 pm (UTC -4)
I think Duda is trade bait for an potential AL trade. I dont really see a future for him unless Tron is gone and kirk heads in the wrong direction. Like you said, the team is deep in outfield…Duda to me reads DH but then again I dont really remember his fielding abilities
wannybackstra
2/15/2011-2:50pm at 2:50 pm (UTC -4)
Have to agree with you on this one. The only chance Duda has at being a regular with the Mets is Davis moves back to RF after Beltran goes. Don’t really see it happening.
Hopefully he kills AAA pitching and finds himself in the next Garza like trade of a young pitcher facing arbitration.
njstuckintx
2/15/2011-9:59pm at 9:59 pm (UTC -4)
Amen.
stickguy
2/15/2011-2:55pm at 2:55 pm (UTC -4)
I think you are underselling duda’s MiL stats. Only 1 year did he strike out at a high rate (2008 inPSL), but even then, he had a solid walk rate.
since then, each year his Ks decreased, and his BB rate stayed strong. For a guy with his power, he showed a high OBP in the minors, and a very solid K/BB rate.
Really, the only thing his line was missing before 2010 was pure power. Basically, he is somewhat unique in that, for a guy as strong as he is, he was more of a complete hitter (think, Kieth H type), taking the ball the other way when pitched outside, etc. Excellent plate coverage and bat control.
I remember reading a piece on him that said he broke (or damaged) his wrist in college, and developed his style to compensate for it while it healed. So in essence he was giving up power to be a singles hitter. In 2010, he finally started turning on pitches and jacking the inside ones, and driving outside pitches further. hence the jump in slg %.
best thing though was while slugging jumped, every other number stayed strong (he actually struck out less also, and had a .390 OBP too). So he added major EBH power, while becoming more disciplined as a hitter (as opposed to guys like jacobs, that sell out and go all or nothing). And doing so is not that common.
you often here that power is the last thing to come for hitters. Well, for duda, it arrived. Given he has always shown to be a complete hitter, and has one of the best pure swings in the system (ask Ralph), that is why I say he is the real deal, and he is ready.
Dirtysanchez
2/15/2011-2:57pm at 2:57 pm (UTC -4)
Do you think he will make the bench?
stickguy
2/15/2011-3:04pm at 3:04 pm (UTC -4)
no. I think that they will want a guy with more defensive flexibility for that, plus would like him get everyday PT (largely for the OF practice).
but, it could happen. He would be replacing harris, a major offensive upgrade at least.
someone on another site was claiming that Harris had a promise of being on the club even though he signed a MiL deal. I don’t see that (pretty sure it may not even be legal!). maybe a guarantee of being released instead of sent to the minors.
I really don’t like harris. he was terrible last year, and hard to think he will be much better at age 33.
Dirtysanchez
2/15/2011-3:10pm at 3:10 pm (UTC -4)
Not a big fan either but im glad we dont have to deal with his ridiculous catches to end a rally anymore
stickguy
2/15/2011-3:29pm at 3:29 pm (UTC -4)
so the simple solution, ship him to the AL west.
his #s at bat were horrid last year. 2 years before that not too bad for a PT guy. but at 33, which is more likely?
njstuckintx
2/15/2011-9:59pm at 9:59 pm (UTC -4)
For Erving?
stickguy
2/15/2011-2:59pm at 2:59 pm (UTC -4)
as to what to do with him, ideally he would go to LF. I am still pissed that he arrived 1 year late. If they had signed lackey instead of Bay last year, you could be running out a platoon of evans/duda (if not duda FT) and getting more production, while having another legit SP, for the same money.
But, if beltran went down, I would roll the dice and put duda in RF. Not the fleetest of foot, but he tries. and a few times he flashed a very good arm from LF, so hopefully he could handle it. Not saying he will be a GG out there, but it would be done to get the bat.
I predicted earlier, and stand by it, that if Duda was given the LF job opening day (assuming bay dropped out of the picture) he would be a very high finisher in the ROY race.
Bryan
2/15/2011-7:00pm at 7:00 pm (UTC -4)
Do you think that Duda will have to get some major league time to prove himself a little before they can get good value in a trade for him or would good power numbers in AAA be enough for an AL team? I’m inclined to think he would need some time in the majors before they can trade him, but I’m wondering what you think.
stickguy
2/15/2011-9:25pm at 9:25 pm (UTC -4)
he showed promise last year, so if he is crushing the ball he is certainly tradeable.
but sure, if he can spend some time with the mets and hit ML pitching, the value goes up.