Checkout our buddy Ceetar’s aka “Optimistic Mets Fan” post that talks about and explains the things fans should not watch in spring training.
Feb 18
Link: What NOT To Watch in Port St. Lucie
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39 comments
Ceetar
2/18/2011-10:48am at 10:48 am (UTC -4)
Thanks for the link.
I regret not throwing a picture up on that post now.
metsfan4decades
2/18/2011-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
All good points.
However, I’m thinking they’re still looking at overall results when it comes to filling out the rotation and BP.
And we all know they’ll be looking very carefully at Murphy’s defensive ability out there on 2nd. From everything I’ve been reading, he appears to be Collins front runner choice – without him actually acknowledging that yet….
Ceetar
2/18/2011-11:19am at 11:19 am (UTC -4)
Right, I think the bullpen may get a little more of a closer look at stats because a lot of what they do is in limited exposure. but even so, things like inducing ground balls, or striking outs guys with runners on, or basically how well they’re throwing right out of the bullpen (to see if they can handle coming in with guys on, or need a clean inning, or can be rushed out fi someones in trouble with less warming up) all play in.
Murphy’s defensive ability will DEFINITELY be the biggest thing they look at, but it’s more than just errors too. poise, getting good reads on grounders, how he feeds Reyes/SS on DP balls, etc.
stickguy
2/18/2011-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
I really hope Murphy is the opening day 2B, just because there are a couple of incredibly obnoxious posters on other sites that are obsessed with running the guy down, and have stated FOR A FACT that it can’t happen. Not to mention they are rude and stupid in general, about everything.
so there is a long line of people that don’t care for the crap they spew constantly, that just can’t wait to rub it in!
Ceetar
2/18/2011-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
I’m in his corner as well, but I’m going to accept the roster as they decide it, down to the 25th man.
stickguy
2/18/2011-12:12pm at 12:12 pm (UTC -4)
assuming (of course with this team, it is an assumption, if not a prayer) that they make it through ST without any notable injuries, the team that breaks camp has to be much bette than what started the year last year. starters and bench.
No jerry, new attitude, huge plus.
the only notable hole is Johan (who remember, was coming off surgery, and a bit erratic at first).
off setting that though is beltran and reyes from the beginning (really, we only had Beltran (the real beltran) in September. Ike with a year under his belt, and an offseason to work on stuff. A 2B (or 2) that will not be a complete black hole. No out machine in RF. A catcher who can get on base. Dickey to start the year.
No ollie or maine in the rotation, no GM jr or jacobs on the field.
I’m sure there are more that I am missing, but overall, I think the positives far, far outweigh the negatives (ups vs. downs). Which is why it confuses me that some people are predicting they will be lucky to finish with 75 wins!
kingman 26
2/18/2011-12:20pm at 12:20 pm (UTC -4)
“Which is why it confuses me that some people are predicting they will be lucky to finish with 75 wins!”
Not lucky to finish with 75; never said that. Lucky to finish with 85 for sure. Just think that they, with the current (lack of) talent will probably be a 75 win team. Sure hope I am wrong though. But if Pelf and Dickey regress and Niese is like the late-season Niese? We might not win 70.
Psssst—The Phils, Braves, and Marlins are 1/3 of our schedule.
They already were better than us and all will probably be better this year.
stickguy
2/18/2011-12:33pm at 12:33 pm (UTC -4)
if my aunt had balls she would be my uncle.
ANd the Marlins are not better than the Mets. They won what, 1 more game last year? And they got worse most likely. stagnant at best.
Lucky to win 70? The 2009 AAA squad won more than that.
sure, if beltran, bay, and reyes miss 5/6th of the seaosn, dickey neise and pelf all get hurt, and everyone else just sucks they might win in the 60s.
On paper (all we got to work with now) they are a viable WC contender. so 85ish wins would be a reaosnable year, nothing special, nothing crazy.
you are underselling the talent on the team. The 2008 club won what, 88 or 89? And this team is probably every bit as good overall right now. and that include the phils and marlins in the division!
TRS86
2/18/2011-12:38pm at 12:38 pm (UTC -4)
You two are for sure at different ends of the spectrum. I am actually proud to be right in the middle. LOL.
I do agree that I can’t see the Marlins being better than the Mets. They have as many if not more if’s than we do. Replacing Uggla’s offense is not that easy and then you have a lot of young players that have to prove themselves.
stickguy
2/18/2011-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
I honestly don’t know all the +/- the Braves did, but at least looking at the phils and marlins, the mets are the only one of the 3 that probably added offense in the off season!
kingman 26
2/18/2011-12:47pm at 12:47 pm (UTC -4)
Stick, they have to beat out all but one of the Phils, Marlins, and Braves.
And if they don’t win the division, then they also have a better record than everyone else in the NL other than the two division winners.
The 2008 team had Delgado, Reyes and Beltran all have excellent years. Who is hitting Delgado’s 38 HR?
Johan was 16-7 with a 2.53 ERA.
Maine and Ollie were good to very good.
Love you Stick, you are wise and cool and great, but the straws you are grasping at are really quite impressive my friend.
In 2009 they won 70.
In 2010 they won 79.
In 2011 they will finish in between these two numbers.
stickguy
2/18/2011-12:54pm at 12:54 pm (UTC -4)
first, what’s with the marlins love all of a sudden? They are consistanly a .500ish team and a non factor. and the likely go worse.
and I don’t see it as grasping at straws that they will improve over last year.
and like I said before, if this team can’t get out of th emid 70′s in wins, then don’t expect them to get out of the 70s in 2012 either (sorry to burst your 2012 rosy bubble my friend!)
TRS86
2/18/2011-1:02pm at 1:02 pm (UTC -4)
Actually based on that logic Kingman, shouldn’t they win 88?
70
79
88
I can’t wait for 2013. 106 wins!!!!
TRS86
2/18/2011-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
Right but the Mets won more than 75 last year with a terrible record against those teams even then. Not sure why that would get worse.
Again, I think it just goes back to jaded or not jaded. There is a case for less wins than last year that is logical just as there is a case for more. To me (obviously as I am usually slanted more optimistic) I see more wins due to not having the disasters of last year in Reyes, Beltran and Bay. You see a regression in Pelfrey and Dickey but I see no reason for that to happen. Of course it could but I got really nothing to say that it will. Just too early as 4D says to even predict how many wins until we see them play. Perhaps they make up for lack of talent with inspired play on the field. New team, new regime. Perhaps it’s better to just wait and see.
metsfan4decades
2/18/2011-12:48pm at 12:48 pm (UTC -4)
Honestly, no matter how good/bad they play – as individuals and as a team – I still think if they stay healthy the potential to win more games should be better.
I know we all said it last year but I truly believe it all hinges on the pitching – both SP and that BP. Losing Johan is no small factor for that starting rotation. And right now, outside of KRod and Parnell, I have absolutely no idea what that BP is going to look like to start the season.
stickguy
2/18/2011-12:50pm at 12:50 pm (UTC -4)
I just am seeing the Mets differently right now than some other people. Call it the fresh start vs. recentl history approack. IOW, I am discounting the last 2 years, unless there is something concrete that has to be considered (like Johan being out).
when I look at the NL, I try to group the teams. Are there any that stand out as likely to have huge years? GIve the phils the benefit of this doubt. Beyond that? Giants again? Nah. Braves? hard to tell.
so leave the phils aside. Then you have the group of good to very good, lots of talent but some ?s. These are the ones that can take the weaker divisions, and compete for the WC. Braves, cards, roxs, brewers? etc. I put the mets here.
Then a group just below this that probably aren’t contenders, but with some huge luck could get close or make some noise. Last years Padres, astros? Marlins? Teams like that.
the last group is the bottom feeders. Call it the pirates and friends.
I don’t think anyone puts them in that bottom group (though not winning 70 games certainly should). So maybe the real debate is, are they in group 2 (I think so) or group 3 (The Knog group).
kingman 26
2/18/2011-12:51pm at 12:51 pm (UTC -4)
On this I do agree that there is a surely equally viable argument for over or under 75 wins.
85 wins? Don’t see that as a possibility.
And while I know you will hate me for saying it, the Phils have the potential to be really scary. And the again young and upcoming Marlins will be very good too.
But to me, forgetting Johan’s absence–as you and Stick seem to be doing–is just huge, massive and gigantic.
kingman 26
2/18/2011-12:52pm at 12:52 pm (UTC -4)
Surely they are better than the Nats and Pirates.
But not as good as the Marlins.
stickguy
2/18/2011-12:56pm at 12:56 pm (UTC -4)
not as good as the marlins? You now have them as a bottom 10 team in MLB (bottom 36d of the NL).
why exactly again are they going to be any good in 2012?
TRS86
2/18/2011-1:01pm at 1:01 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah I can’t see how the Marlins improved. Really didn’t they take a step back? Unless you actually expect all those young guys to take steps forward at the same time, not likely at all. Their pitching will be solid but their defense still has lots of holes and their offense got much worse.
metsfan4decades
2/18/2011-1:29pm at 1:29 pm (UTC -4)
I hear ya. Nothing wrong with differences of opinion. It’s that ‘I’m right, you’re wrong and you’re a moron’ posting that makes me roll my eyes.
Really hard to not give into the temptation to get into a dueling battle of posts with some of those guys….
stickguy
2/18/2011-2:09pm at 2:09 pm (UTC -4)
you know what the old saying is MF. don’t wrestle in the mud with a ig. You get dirty, and the pig enjoys it.
kingman 26
2/18/2011-1:16pm at 1:16 pm (UTC -4)
I am with TRS on this issue—both sides have an equally undefined, opinion-based case.
But all of you continue to somewhat ignore the rather large Venezuelan elephant on the DL named Johan.
His absence is potentially going to negatively overcompensate for any offensive improvement.
Folks, love debating with the three of you, but gotta go!
Have a great day!
TRS86
2/18/2011-1:21pm at 1:21 pm (UTC -4)
Hey come back. You can’t make that point and leave. LOL.
It is true that the loss of Johan hurts. Yet I brought up earlier many of his starts were wasted due to lack of offense. If the offense works then we can get just as many WINS out of the SP as we did last year.
kingman 26
2/18/2011-1:24pm at 1:24 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, OK, but now I REALLY have to go!
I hope you are right; really I do.
We shall soon see what we can expect from Young and Capuano.
If they somehow turn back the clock five years, we might indeed be in good shape.
TRS86
2/18/2011-1:26pm at 1:26 pm (UTC -4)
I agree that ONE of Young/Cap have to pitch well for it to work. I think there is some depth with Gee that if one gets injured he can come in and pitch to back of the rotation results. Especially if only ask to do so for 10-15 starts.
metsfan4decades
2/18/2011-1:51pm at 1:51 pm (UTC -4)
You all know I don’t normally do predictions – especially this early with trying to predict the number of wins.
Health/injuries aside, I honestly feel how well the Mets do hinges on the pitching. And to me, there is just as much potential right now to be pleasantly surprised as there is for it to be a disaster. I usually take a look at what the team has done so far heading to the Memorial Day weekend before I start forming an opinion on the rest of the season.
By Memorial Day last year we knew:
- Maine and Perez were not going to be a factor but didn’t know how good RA would be.
- Beltran returning much before ASB was not in the cards.
- We had started the season with Reyes on the DL and once back, a slow start due to no spring training and that failed hitting 3rd.
- We wasted the first month or so with Jacobs and GMJ as starters and had yet to really know what Ike would bring in the ML and if Pagan would be as steady all year as he looked early.
- We knew Franceour had come back down to earth and his ‘hitting spree’ end of the previous year was just an aberration.
- We knew Jason Bay got off to a crappy start and…the worst was yet to come losing him for the season after 95 games.
I hadn’t given up hope yet as it was too early but being the realistic type I knew in my heart things would really, really have to break well if we had any choice at post season at that point.
They say it’s not how you start but how you finish that usually determines success in any season. Last year we had hope going into the ASB. Once that road trip after the ASB was over, we pretty much knew it would take some kind of miracle to be playing ‘meaningful’ games in Sep.
I just can’t wait for the season to start.
TRS86
2/18/2011-2:05pm at 2:05 pm (UTC -4)
You really should be an author. Such an eloquent way of saying things!
stickguy
2/18/2011-2:13pm at 2:13 pm (UTC -4)
Hey real, I don’t know how to do it (or I would), but this interesting little debate this AM (PM now) has given me an idea for the weekend.
how about put up a pool to see what everyone thinks the over/under # for wins should be. Define it as the “normal” year (some good, some bad, nothing outrageous happens) expectation.
I know that Vegas sports books put one out (not that I know what it is from their), but I would be curious to see what the RDM community as a whole thinks (I know 1 vote already!)
metsfan4decades
2/18/2011-2:18pm at 2:18 pm (UTC -4)
Ha! Don’t know that I’m all that talented but reading around some blogs today was really getting me riled up. Don’t know how some Met fans can honestly write off this season already. Heck, some think we won’t compete at all until 2013.
I’ll agree on paper we’re certainly no lock -especially for the division – but who knows about the WC this early? We’ve got some nice talent on this team. Too early to tell if any of these inexpensive risk/reward type players will make an impact. Maybe we’ll get lucky and a majority will. Our luck is due to change at some point……
stickguy
2/18/2011-2:23pm at 2:23 pm (UTC -4)
some of the regulars at MMO I think need serious mental professional help. and the level of Sandy (and sabermetrics) hate on some of them broders on psychotic. Especially since we haven’t seen “his” team play 1 game yet!
even FWICG is a lot more moderate than that place these days, even with the new open door policy.
those 2 and this place (and mets minors) are about the only ones I ever visit, unless I see a link that looks interesting. Most don’t get very many comments though.
metsfan4decades
2/18/2011-2:32pm at 2:32 pm (UTC -4)
But, but…..HE who shall not be named doesn’t need sabermetrics or stats. He has his EYES and he knows baseball. The rest of us are just drinking the Sandy Koolaid.
Yes, I noticed that over on FWICG. Other than Sylow’s hating on Murphy, they’ve been pretty civil, for the most part. Only saw a few heated debates so far.
We’ll see how long that lasts once games are being played.
stickguy
2/18/2011-3:09pm at 3:09 pm (UTC -4)
remember, it’s Bayonnes shout box, he just lets other in sometimes. but only if you agree with his bizarre theories, and worship at his (not sandy’s) feet.
Not sure if you noticed, but thanks to him, they took the box off the front page. Must have been scaring the children.
stickguy
2/18/2011-2:14pm at 2:14 pm (UTC -4)
as they say, you are what your record says you are.
Problem is, that only works at the end of the season! Right now, they don’t have one.
metsfan4decades
2/18/2011-2:29pm at 2:29 pm (UTC -4)
This tweet is for stickguy:
Ledger_NYMets Much like Jerry Manuel, Terry Collins sure does like Lucas Duda. I suppose his batting practice sessions are epic.
********************************
I remember watching ST games last year and after awhile watching Ike’s at bats thinking, ‘who is this guy and where did he come from?’. Next thing we knew, he had the 1st base starting job.
Maybe Duda will somehow hit his way on the team. Or be the first considered for a call up should someone go on the DL.
stickguy
2/18/2011-3:04pm at 3:04 pm (UTC -4)
saw that. Probably something to do with a sweet swing, and possibly (based on last years shwing) the most raw power potential on the team.
I don’t expect him to make the bench, but if he hits like I think he will, if a corner OF spot opens up I think he will be the guy to fill it, defense be damned!
Freakin Bay is really clogging up the works on this team, with all the interesting prospects coming along that supposedly can only play LF!
I want Reyes extended, and don’t care about beltran getting traded early (since he is leaving anyway), but if I could get one guy traded right now it would be Bay.
stickguy
2/18/2011-3:07pm at 3:07 pm (UTC -4)
actually, I wonder if the nrew regime (and their saber tendencies) has the cajones to ignore contract status, and platoon a veteran like Bay?
just say Duda is crushing RHP. and Bay is scuffling bad against righties, but hitting pretty good vs. LHP.
would they let a rookie get the bulk of the starts, and keep a guy like bay on th ebench (platooning?) Or will they be like every other team (it seems) and let contract status drive decisions?
if it doesn’t happen this year, could very easily be an issue i nthe next couple (and platooning has the side benefit of preventing his option (2014?) from vesting!
metsfan4decades
2/18/2011-4:13pm at 4:13 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, I’ve gone on record too saying I think Bay is expendable, especially if that money means Reyes is extended.
I’m not on any hate campaign to trade Bay but if the opportunity arises….
stickguy
2/18/2011-3:24pm at 3:24 pm (UTC -4)
saw this quote on the ESPN blog.
“John Harper breaks from the Wilpon pack to write about baseball, even if it’s noting the Mets’ rotation doesn’t exactly match up with the Phils’. Referring to Chris Capuano and Chris Young, one Mets official told Harper: “If we can get 40-45 starts out of those two guys, our pitching will be fine.”
I agree with this. If those 2 can give that many, it leaves 20 or so for Gee.
that could be an effective enough back of the rotation (especially since young and capuano can actually pitch well, they just have to make the starts, as this assumes they will). Then we just need the front 3 to make the bulk of their starts.
Not, not the “4 aces” (though who knows, all 3 pitched like one for a stretch last year), but could be plenty to keep the mets in the WC hunt, if the offense steps up this year finally.