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Feb 22

Time For a Repost: Ted Berg-Wasted At-Bats

As I have been reading blog posting after posting and comment after comment about the struggles of the 2010 Mets an article from last month continues to resurface on my mind.   On January 10th Ted Berg wrote an amazing article that explained the struggles of the 2010 Mets.  It all could be summed up in two names.  JERRY and OMAR.

Wasted at-bats

Here is the telling stats from this article:

The Phillies gave 473 PAs to position players with sub-.300 OBPs.

The Braves gave 625 PAs to position players with sub-.300 OBPs.

The Marlins gave 479 PAs to position players with sub-.300 OBPs (though it’s worth noting that Wes Helms compiled 287 with an even .300 mark).

The Nationals — the lowly Nationals! — gave 1285 PAs to position players with sub-.300 OBPs.

And the Mets gave 1633 PAs to position players with sub-.300 OBPs.

When you break this down this is 27% of the Mets TOTAL PAs.  Is there any wonder the offense stunk?  This is what gives me hope for this season and the new administration.  Hopefully gone will be the days of whack a mole and back to the days where the hitters have a plan and are able to execute that plan at the plate.

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71 comments

  1. metsfan4decades

    Points to either we had more injuries – and extended ones at that, with crappy BU offense or we just had a crappy bench in general. Or both…..

    I know the Phillies MO up to this point has been not to use bench players unless it’s absolutely necessary. There is no way with guys like Schneider on the bench (and Valdez when Rollins wasn’t on the DL), they’d have them hitting if at all avoidable.

  2. TRS86

    More interesting stats.
    OBP:
    2007: .342
    2008: 340
    2009: .335
    2010 .317

    No mo Hojo.

  3. joed

    Good post and I will mention it today on my own blog. I have a lot more hope going into the season too. But it’s not based on any of the hitters bought in to replace the likes of Cora, Blanco, Francoeur, etc. The additions of Hu, Hairston, Harris and Chavez don’t seem like upgrades in the OBP department. I’m hopeful we can stay healthy, because if we don’t and these new guys are forced into regular PT we’re in trouble. One thing Berg fails to mention is that bench players logged many of those 2010 Mets PA’s due to injuries. Most MLB benches are not stocked with .375+ OBP players, and many of the Mets minor league replacements like Tejada were relied on before they were ready. Whether he starts or not, a healthy Murphy is our best upgrade on offense. He logged no time in 2010, but should see about 300 AB this year.

    1. Mr North Jersey

      You look familiar do I know you?

      ;-)

    2. TRS86

      True, but even still I think this team would be less likely to give AB’s to guys that clearly are not concerned with OBP.
      By the way who is Chavez? Am I forgetting someone?

      While Hairston, Harris, Hu, Emaus are not quality starters I would take them over the guys netting significant AB’s last season.

      1. joed

        But what I’m saying is do you think this new bench would have fared any better had they been our bench guys in 2010? If Hairston and Harris had replaced Bay and Beltran, if Hu had replaced Reyes when hurt or Castillo when he lost job. It comes down to health. If god forbid we start the season with Bay, Beltran and Reyes on DL, what makes you feel our OBP would be any better with these new reserve players? Not one of them had an OBP north of .299.

      2. joed

        Also Emaus was terrible when not hitting at his mile high home park. .289 obp, .also batted .214 vs righthanders. There may be a good reason why he was left unprotected.

        1. stickguy

          especailly as a RH part of a platoon, I still don’t see why Turner gets no love. He played in pitchers parks (league) for the most part (Or at least neutral), and put up an OPS vs. LHP of 1.00+. He absolutely mashed them, with no elevation boost.

          a murphy/turner platoon (if murphy shows enough to play the field!) could easily be the best mix for the team.

        2. Mr North Jersey

          Just so there is a better breakdown of what Emaus did in minors last 2 years I’d like to add this to the conversation.

          Brad Emaus
          AAA (Las Vegas) – 2010
          Home .338/BA .408/OBP .609/SLG 151/AB 9/HR
          Away .259/BA .379/OBP .386/SLG 158/AB 1/HR
          firstinning.com/players/Bradley-Emaus-a/?s_y=2010&s_t=Las%20Vegas&s_ll=AAA

          AA (New Hampshire) – 2010
          Home .317/BA .438/OBP .556/SLG 63/AB 4/HR
          Away .233/BA .371/OBP .329/SLG 73/AB 1/HR
          firstinning.com/players/Bradley-Emaus-a/?s_y=2010&s_t=New%20Hampshire&s_ll=AA

          AA (New Hampshire) – 2009
          Home .233/BA .316/OBP .368/SLG 253/AB 5/HR
          Away .274/BA .358/OBP .385/SLG 252/AB 5/HR
          firstinning.com/players/Bradley-Emaus-a/?s_y=2009&s_t=New%20Hampshire&s_ll=AA

  4. stickguy

    I like this topic. Decided to review the numbers, instead of talking out of my arse as usual.

    I think both sides (call them TRS and Joe) are correct, to an extent.

    Of the ture starters (as in the regular players considered to be #1s), Rod B., Blanco and Frenchy had a total of 858 PAs, with OBPs of .263, .271 and .293. Those 3 alone blew away any of the division teams above the Mets.

    Other guys that got regular (starter level) PT (100+ ABs, just picking a number) were Cora (.265 in 187) and Feliciano (.276 in 119).

    that brings us up to 1164 PAs, for just those 5 guys.

    the rest were from true bench guys (less than 100 ABs, most in the 50+/- range). Actually, of all the guys that got less than 100 PAs, only Nick Evans broke the .300 OBP barrier (.324).

    To me, this screams of bad roster construction (the starters), and that is Omar, with terrible usage by Jerry.

    1. kingman 26

      Reyes at .321!

      Best leadoff hitter ever!

      Sign him to a $200 million dollar deal NOW!!

      1. TRS86

        Kingman you really are turning into a Slylow on this Reyes topic. Not everything is about Reyes. Would hate for that to be something that defines you the way Murphy or Figgy has us.

        1. kingman 26

          Well, I know enough about Sylow to say that this is ridiculous.

          And again, I thought labels like this were frowned upon?

          I know I am one of the few who actually watched Jose play last year, but hey, I have big, strong shoulders. I can take it.

          Nothing would make me happier than to see a focused and healthy Jose return to 2006–2008 form.

          1. TRS86

            Just don’t see how this post has anything to do with Reyes.

          2. kingman 26

            I can see that.

            But I guess I think giving all the leadoff at bats to a .321 OBP guy is relevant.

          3. TRS86

            It is in the overall picture but I was choosing to focus more on the incredible amount of AB’s that went to scrubs. While Reyes had a down year, certainly far from scrub. Especially considering that he actually had to have a .345 OBP from mid-May through September just to get to that .320. As with what they did with Beltran it shows you just can’t bring a player with little to no warm up time and throw them on the field and get results.

          4. kingman 26

            Fair enough Chief.

      2. stickguy

        well, not sure what Reyes has to do with sub-.300 OBP abs (.321 being above it), but true, his YTD % was sub par.

        it was also well off his strongly established career %, and misleading.

        I have given the numbers before, but from the time he really settled in (2006), he was a model of consistancy.

        2006-2009 (in something like 2,500 PAs) he averaged ~.355. And his range was tight, something like .352-.358 in those 4 years. I think that is enough sample size to say that is what he is.

        2010, he basically did ST on the fly, and started out terrible. But, from about mid-may (roughly 40 games in), he was at ~.345 for the year. So, close to his career #, and well better than .321.

        and that included the period of time he should have been on the DL letting the oblique heal, not hitting from 1 side of the plate only, wrapped up like a mummy.

        so with all the circumstances factored in, if Reyes has a normal, reasonably healthy year (and he seems to be in great shape now), then I see no reason he won’t settle right back into his normal .350+ range, and most likely (just hitting his prime years) seeing it tick up (along with his slg %, which was also at career highs last year from May on).

        1. TRS86

          That’s what I was just counting up as well.

          From June- rest of season he was at .332 but when you factor in from where you did it does climb back to close to career averages.

          Question is how much of it was due to him being hurt.

    2. joed

      Thanks stick. Numbers dont lie.

      Do you think Francoeur would have been a regular if Beltran had started the season? If you think back to the way 2009 ended, the talk was (before Beltran elected to have surgery) that Pagan had earned a platoon with Francoeur who couldn’t hit righties well. As it ended up, the injury made regular players out of both of them, and in that regard if you blame Omar for Francoeur than you must credit him for Pagan.

      As for Cora and Feliciano, big part of the problem, but had it been Hu and Emaus would it have been any better?

      I think that if any team had suffered the historic days lost to the DL by the NY Mets during the 2009-2010 seasons, they would have been equally as bad.

      It wasn’t just a SS or CF or LF that we lost, but also the leadoff hitter, #3 hitter and cleanup hitter. In the NL, I don’t know how any team could replace that kind of offense from their bench and minors and not suffer offensively the way the Mets did.

      The third time’s a charm, so maybe this is the year we stay healthy and rake in the NL East, while the Phillies hit the skids and lose guys like Howard and Victorino for long stretches. Ibanez and Polanco are getting very old and thus very susceptible to injury as well.

      Bottom line: Lets Go Mets!

      1. stickguy

        I would not have put any idiocy past Jerry. But yes, I think that if beltran had started in CF, he was using Frenchy as the starter. Would he have eventually (sooner) gone to a platoon? Maybe, but no idea when.

        and as to Hu and Emaus, not, they should not have gotten the starter jobs if they were obviously sub-par level bench guys (or purely defensive replacements). If the starter goes down (DL) for an extended period, they need to find someone that is at least a marginally qualified starter. Even if this means giving a look to your top prospects. If not, you find a journeyman type.

        This is actually one reason I like seeing a platoon when there is not an obvious stud to start. You are better prepared if 1/2 the platoon goes down!

        and bottom line, they need better guys to step in.

        interestingly (in terms of this analysis), in 2009, other than BU catcher, the only guy to get 100 PAs (on the nose) without an OBP of .300 was F Mart. And even the cathcers were in the mid-.290s. so the OBP problem really was only in 2010.

        I blame Jerry.

        1. TRS86

          Actually blame Jerry, roster construction and Hojo.

          Again from this morning.
          2007: .342
          2008: .340
          2009: .335
          2010: .317

          1. Mr North Jersey

            Blame Beltran

          2. metsfan4decades

            FIRE HOJO !!

          3. kingman 26

            SIGN MANNY!!

          4. stickguy

            SIGN HOJO!

          5. Prismo

            FIRE HOJO RELEASE OLLIE FIRE WARTHEN HIRE OLLIE AS PITCHING COACH HIRE HOJO FIRE COLLINS HIRE BACKMAN FIRE BACKMAN WHEN HE THROWS A COOLER AT THE BALLBOY FIRE HOJO RANDOM CAPITAL LETTERS LOSING MY MIND EXTEND REYES SNEAK CAPTAIN CRUNCH INTO CC’S MEALS TRADE FOR PUJOLS RELEASE PUJOLS HIRE HOJO SIGN ECKSTEIN MOVE CASTILLO TO THE OUTFIELD HIRE HOJO

          6. metsfan4decades

            LOL….I think Prismo has covered them all.

  5. kingman 26

    Well, the OBP was abominable last year. Due to lack of ability AND due to lack of discipline and swinging at the first pitch rather than working counts and mailing in games during August and September, as Ojeda was practically shouting about after every game in late summer.

    Reyes, who everyone but me wants to sign to a 12 year 400-mil deal, had an OBP of .321 last year.

    It will be very interesting to see how you explain away fourth place this year.

    1. TRS86

      This one my friend is not about guys mailing it in or Reyes. It is about the junk that the Mets had come to the plate in 2010.

      “And the Mets gave 1633 PAs to position players with sub-.300 OBPs.”

      That has nothing to do with the Vets mailing it in and everything to do with the lack of talent on the team.

      1. kingman 26

        Fair enough sir.

        But it will be very interesting to see how much higher the team OBP goes in 2011 without improvement from Reyes, Pagan, Ike, Bay, Murphy, etc.

        Wright’s OBP has gone down 60 points the last few years

        I know the hope for 2011 respectability is that every player recovers to the form they have not shown for 2–5 years, but, alas, this is very unlikely.

        The numbers you mention are only part of the story of the horrid OBP.

        The declines from other players are also a large part of it as well.

        1. TRS86

          No doubt that others need to improve. I still think you are too hard on Reyes. The guy started without a ST and from mid-May on his OBP was near career averages. Yet how many AB’s was the guy forced to take when he was not even healthy enough to swing from the proper side of the plate.

          1. TRS86

            .154 .154 .231 .385 in 13 PA as a RH vs a RH. Why was he batting RH vs a RH? He was too injured to even swing LH yet he was put out there anyway. Jerry telling him ah hell just go bunt or something.

          2. TRS86

            Sorry 14PA.

        2. stickguy

          5 years? who the heck is that?

          of the guys that were either hurt or dismal in 2010 (or both, mr. Bay!) I would be extremely happy to see 2009 numbers from them.

          Bay had a huge year. Reyes and Beltran were having very good (reyes) to monster (Beltran) years.

          hell, Murphy can put up his 2009 #s at 2B and I won’t complain too much (but I think a platoon will do much, much better).

          Wright needs to stabalize the K and OBP #s but otherwise 2010 was fine.

          Ike, Thole, both too new to have that history.

          Pagan was fine both years (better in 2009 though, due to his slump period in 2010).

          not sure if we are talking pitching too, but you only have the nominal #4&5 Sps, and a couple pen hopefuls, that are a couple years out from being productive.

          1. njstuckintx

            Go Big Murph!

    2. TRS86

      Also really your months are kind of mixed up.

      It was July and August that the offense was really bad.
      July: .227 .293 .353 .646
      August: .233 .303 .329 .632

      September they rebounded back to closer to what they had been in March-June.

      1. stickguy

        July/august: Reyes oblique, Bay hit the tank before he hit the wall, castillo and beltran trying to play their way back into shape in the majors, Ike’s slump/adjustment period, and Frenchy playing like, well, Frenchy.

        Yup, those numbers look about right!

        September gives me hope, since the important guys (other than Bay of course) were finally healthy and in a groove, and Ike had rebounded. And of course, my boy Duda was raking. I consider that month to be more indicitive of what we should expect this year.

        1. TRS86

          Duda raking? LOL. September: .202 .261 .417 .678

          1. stickguy

            the 2nd half of the month. Once he finished getting aclimated.

            games 14-29:

            .314/.345/.647/.993 with 4 HRs. An OK stretch of 55 PAs!

            just those first 31 were not too pretty.

          2. TRS86

            True, and I have not looked but how many of those AB’s were against quality SP?

          3. stickguy

            probably just as many as in the 1st 31.

            they all count.

            I honestly have no way to tell who he hit them off of.

          4. TRS86

            There is hope in the fact that all 3 pitchers that he got 2 hits off of he hit HR as well. His HR were not against all slouches in Hanson, Yovani Gallardo, and Adalberto Mendez, Yunesky Maya.

            Here are the pitchers he had hits against.
            Gallardo (2), Narveson, Maya, Balester, Livan, Morton, Ledezma, Hanson (2), Mendez (2), Sanches, Durbin and Wolf.

  6. stickguy

    as to Joes oint about the bench, if you subtract the guys that were starters (and I consider COra to have been here as an alternate starter) and replace them with guys above .300, you drop right down to ~ 780 PAs (so in the running). Hell, take Feliciano (why he got so many ABs, beyond me) and that is 640. Right about even with the Braves.

    so no, I don’t think the new bench will neccesarily be notably better, but as long as they are getting bench level ABs, it won’t matter (all teams have that). It should have some more power. And I also don’t count on seeing Harris out there.

    the key is, if the bench guys are true PT guys (like Hu say), if your regular goes down, DON”T START THEM! Neither cora nor Feliciano should have been getting regular starts

    Oh, and in the recent past, both Harris and Hairston, in more regular duty, have ahd much better OBPs. You can’t automaticially say a guy with poor numbers playing sporadically will not do better playing every day. Cora wasn’t going to, but either of H&H probably would.

  7. metsfan4decades

    On that note, AA published their WAR projections this morning:

    http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/2/22/2007314/february-war-projection#storyjump

    They’re posting a conservative 79-85 win season, based on their projected lineup (with bench) up to this point. They said they are going to redo once the roster is set.

    1. TRS86

      Pretty much exactly where I have them.

    2. stickguy

      these things are always skewed since it assumes a static roster. and we know, that never happens!

      the 85 as a target seems reasonable to me. with 90 as possible as the 80 (79). Consider it the Jerry and Omar are gone bump.

      3 games Jerry won’t cost us. and 3 more wins when Sandy actually adds some players at the deadline.

      1. TRS86

        90 is ambitious as hell LOL. Again I see 75-85 wins.

        1. TRS86

          Of course you are right that could change if the talent on the field changes.

        2. kistics

          I see 65-105 wins… :P

    3. kingman 26

      I believe the official Las Vegas over/under for total wins is about 78 or 79.

      Seems about right.

      1. TRS86

        I would expect the over-under to be exactly where they finished last year so yeah.

        1. metsfan4decades

          I just can’t wrap my brain around a same 79 WIN finish as last year.

          Yeah, Johan on the DL is huge. But by all indications we’ve got Bay, Reyes and Beltran coming back healthy. We should get better production from 2nd base. Are those 4 factors = to missing Johan?

          If so, then I still expect the rest of the roster to at least pick up 1/2 the slack.

          I’m not saying we’re going to win any 100 games but I don’t see how a solid 85 is not reasonable.

          1. stickguy

            Johan only pitched 5 months (and change) last year though. So if he did come back by august and pitch 2, that is only 1/2 a year to replace.

            on the flip side, they gave 17 starts to guys with ERAs of 6+. that is more than 10% of starts to guys that were terrible. And 3 more to Mejia late in the year.

            Even missing Santana, if they can give those 20 starts (12% of the season total) to “real” SPs, , that has to be an improvement, going a long way to offsetting losing Johan.

            even uglier? Of the guys making those 20 starts, they only had 3 wins on the year. And Neive had 1 GS but 2 wins, so at most, those SPs got 2 wins out of 20 starts (no, I didi not check game logs to see if the pen won any of them).

            Give those 20 to Capuano, and I think you get more than 2 wins out of them.

          2. metsfan4decades

            Yikes! You’re right, that is pretty ugly.
            We were lucky to come away with 79 wins……

          3. TRS86

            It is and that is why YOU should pick the over. However there is a case if everything falls apart for the under. I agree with you but…

        2. stickguy

          well, if the line is 78.5, if you are going to Vegas please put $100 on the over for me. I’m good for it!

          I don’t quite understand why AA has such a big range. I would think that WAR would pop out a number, and that would be your bogey. Or is 79-85 their fudge factor range (everything goes right vs. everything goes wrong)?

          So maybe I am optimistic. I think 85, with normal production and health, is a realistic number to expect. IOW, on paper, to me, what this team should do.

          Then I usually figure +/-5-6 wins as the range, meaning 79/80 – 90/91.

          The low side is if damn near everything goes wrong (suicide bomber manager, killer injuries, etc. Like last year!). The high side is the damn near everything went right (you find another Dickey (pun intended), no big injuries, a couple guys step up to have career years, some competition hits the rocks. IOW, 2006).

          No, I don’t expect, or think it is a high probability, that they win 90 or take the WC. But I do think that they have enough talent to potentially do so.

          1. metsfan4decades

            Maybe AA is giving such a broad number right now b/c the 25 man roster isn’t set yet. As in, expect the number to go down if Ollie is part of the starting rotation…..

          2. kingman 26

            If you are serious, I should be going for a weekend in March….I really would trust you and make the bet if you want.

          3. stickguy

            If you go, let me know what the #s are at the time. I should be making the track this year (hopefully don’t get pneumonia again!). And I should be good for it.

            would probably go with $10 to win the WS and $20 on the O/O if it is in the 70s.

          4. kingman 26

            I bet $20 on the Mets to win the pennant and WS every year.

            So there.

            Best long-term prop I ever had was the Ravens to win the conference and the Super Bowl before the 2000 season; those were SWEET tix to cash in.

            Stick, I will definitely let you know and get any tix you want. I will almost definitely be there before opening day.

          5. kingman 26

            Well, I know I am squarely on the opposite side here, but you are counting on serious rebounds from Beltran, Reyes, AND Bay.

            Counting on Pagan and Niese being a hell of a lot better than they were the last two months.

            And counting quite heavily on Capuano and Young returning to the health and form they last showed in 2007.

            Pelf, Dickey and Niese are not exactly Seaver, Koosman, and Matlack to start with.

            .500 and 3rd place should be the goals.

          6. TRS86

            Not sure if .500 and 3rd place should be their “goals”. I think it’s reasonable that could happen but shouldn’t their “goals” be much higher?

          7. kingman 26

            Maybe; yeah.

            But looking at the team, the starting pitching, and the division opponents who we have 54 games with?

            I think .500 is very reasonable, and a good step forward.

          8. TRS86

            I think I would consider more along the lines of above .500 as a good step forward. Reasonable like I said could be 75-85 so as a coach I would set the “goal” as 90 wins and in WC race.

  8. Mr North Jersey

    (Off Topic)

    If your interested in watching a mlb team working out in Spring Training. The SF Giants are streaming theirs workouts live for the nest few hours.

    Here is the link.
    http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?topic_id=16570032

    It is pretty cool in my opinion. Can someone petition the Mets to do the same? I know I would love to be able to see the guys take BP and pitch.

    1. metsfan4decades

      Ah…the perks of being the World Champs.

  9. metsfan4decades

    I can see all points above but I certainly hope the team themselves don’t set these hard goals such as .500, 4th/3rd place. Just go out there and win every game……
    Aw…the hell with it. Just shoot for the 100 games Rollins is predicting for the Phils.

    On another note, I see a guy the Phills picked up off the scrap heap has been throwing knuckleball batting practice to the regulars these past few days. Don’t waste your time guys.
    FEAR THE RAD !

  10. metsfan4decades

    Love this from Lennon on Twitter:

    DPLennon: Fan says to Mookie, “Even if he caught it, you would have beat it out, right?” Says Wilson, “Didn’t matter.

    1. stickguy

      people seem to overlook the fact that even if buckner scooped it up and beat mookie to the bag, the game was just going to the next inning.

      and by that point, the momentum was seriously in the mets favor, and the Sox had no pen left.

      so no guarantee, but odds are the mets win the game anyway.

      If anything, Mookie dodging the ball at his feet to let the tying run score (that was the tying one, right?) was vastly more important in that AB.

      1. metsfan4decades

        Yes sir, it was the tying run scored on that wild pitch.

        Had a ‘friendly’ argument with a family Philly fan. Said if Buckner wasn’t so shot, the Mets don’t win that WS. Told her to look it up. We had already scored 2 off Schiraldi to get within one so he gets some blame. Scored the tying run off Stanley so he gets some blame. Then the Buckner error for the game winning run. As you said, even if Buckner gets the ball and beats Mookie to the bag we were already tied at that point.
        Not to mention we had to come back two days later and win game 7.

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