Yesterday brought the news that Adam Wainwright, whose curveball to end the 2006 NLCS is etched in my memory forever, is likely out for the season due to elbow trouble. According to Baseball Prospectus, the Cardinals’ odds of making the 2011 playoffs dropped from 55% to 43% just because of the injury. It is safe to say that the Cards are a team that needs to win now. With Albert Pujols’ free agency looming, the Cards can’t afford to wait until next year.
The above facts, coupled with my view stated in a recent post that Mike Pelfrey was not as good as we might think based on his 2010, got me thinking.
Specifically, it got me thinking that the Mets should try and trade Big Pelf to the Cardinals. Yes, I know we already don’t have a great rotation, but that’s precisely the point, at least in part.
Baseball Prospectus gives the Mets a 6% chance of making the playoffs. If we traded Pelf, maybe those odds drop to 3%. Hardly a catastrophe. And, if sabermetrics are to be believed, the loss of Pelf will never be that substantial because he’s simply not that good of a pitcher. Pelf is also due to make $4 mil this year, and will probably be due for a bigger raise next year. Trading Pelf now means freeing up more money in the future to actually build a team with a better than 6% chance of making the playoffs.
For the Cards, as noted above, they need to win. There is currently no one like Wainright available, but Pelf offers the illusion of being something of an adequate replacement. We know that for at least stretches at a time, Pelf can pitch like an ace. The Cards also aren’t known as a team that focuses on stats in their player evaluations. And like I said earlier, the Pujols situation makes the Cards desperate.
Thus, the Mets have an opportunity. They can take advantage of the Cards need for a starter, and possibly bring back some young talent that may turn out to be more valuable than Pelf in the long-run, when hopefully the Mets will once again be ready to contend.
What would I want the Mets to get back? Well, the Cards don’t have a great minor league system. But they do have Shelby Miller. Still only 20, he struck out 140 in only 104 innings in low-A, and already throws 93-95 regularly. He’s on all the top prospect lists and has the potential to be a true ace. Would the Cards give him up? Normally, I’d say no. But the Pujols thing has them on edge, and they may feel that there’s no price they wouldn’t pay to ensure they contend now.
If the Mets could bring back Shelby Miller, I say they should jump at the opportunity to trade Pelf. As I’ve argued in the context of Jose Reyes, the Mets need more talented players than they have right now. Simply building around the existing core just won’t cut it – that core is declining, not improving – and this group of players has proven repeatedly they aren’t up to winning a championship.
Will trading Pelf now hurt the team this season? A little. But if the payoff can be an ace down the line, I say it’s worth it.
32 comments
metsfan4decades
2/24/2011-1:01pm at 1:01 pm (UTC -4)
No one is disputing that Pelfrey is or will be an ace on this staff.
But…..if you’re saying this:
‘We know that for at least stretches at a time, Pelf can pitch like an ace.’
How can you say this?:
‘And, if sabermetrics are to be believed, the loss of Pelf will never be that substantial because he’s simply not that good of a pitcher.’
–’Not that good’ meaning not an ace? How about solid #2?
IMO, this is thinking a little too much out of the box. Simply b/c I don’t see the Cards giving up their top pitching prospect. Early indications are the Cards are gonna fill that vacant spot from within – for the time being. Maybe – and it’s a big stretch – if they’re still in the race come mid season, they might think about getting a quality pitcher via a trade. And if so, I have to think they’re going to be looking for higher than what you project Pelf to be, before giving up Miller. Not unless Pelf is like 9-1 again to start the year.
njstuckintx
2/24/2011-1:17pm at 1:17 pm (UTC -4)
Like the outside the box thinking. So many ways to look at this. If the Mets did this now, it would be such a “waving of the white flag” on the year. Would it be smart for the long haul, yeah. But that would make a weakness of the mets even weaker.
Also, I think the Cards are like the Mets in that they are going to protect their young kids just to have flexibilty with their payroll. How else are they going to pay for Pujols? I have heard rumors of trading carpenter to make extra payroll space for the big man. They are that much invested in holding onto that dude.
I’m not a believer that Pelf is an ace and if someone like Shelby could be had, I think after some thought, I’d do it. Santana, Niese, Mejia, Shelby and dickey/Gee has a lot of promise.
stickguy
2/24/2011-1:21pm at 1:21 pm (UTC -4)
carpenter can be a FA after this season (I believe he has a large club option). I could see them just letting him go and freeing up the money that way (assuming they are making a playoff run this seaosn)
kingman 26
2/24/2011-1:24pm at 1:24 pm (UTC -4)
Some thoughts are outside the box for a reason. And should be kept there.
Trading Pelf for a low A ball pitcher based on the above reasoning being exhibit A.
stickguy
2/24/2011-1:20pm at 1:20 pm (UTC -4)
not liekly to happen. UNless you think the guy coming back can step into the rotatin by 2012?
this again brings up the shat or get off the pot debate. That is, are you contending in 2011/2012, or gutting to the studs and rebuilding?
Trade Pelf, why not trade Reyes too? Or does he have a future in your world, even with the next 3+ years being wasted?
even if Pelf never becomes Halladay and wins a Cy Young, he is still an extremely valuable commodity. Unless you like the idea of filling multiple holes in the rotation each year with guys like Young?
And if they did this deal, Miller really better be a true stud that moves up quick, because the screaming from the fan base (you won’t be able to buy a torch in queens for a while!) for Sandy’s head will reach a fever pitch.
now, I do appreciate the thought process. And I actually expected more of this type of thinking/moves from Sandy, but so far, not to be.
as to the Cards, would not be surprised to see them try to get Blanton for nothing but salary relief and a stiff or 2.
metsfan4decades
2/24/2011-1:37pm at 1:37 pm (UTC -4)
‘the screaming from the fan base (you won’t be able to buy a torch in queens for a while!) for Sandy’s head will reach a fever pitch.’
I immediately had these same thoughts as well. Call me an ‘emotional’ fan, if you will, but even a savy business type GM has to think twice before making a move that would likely upset the fan base to this extent.
Saw a poll on AA yesterday asking would you rather lock Reyes up long term or would you rather trade him/let him walk and save the money for other quality players.
The overwhelming majority picked option (a). That was yesterday sometime, I believe – and it was like 91% resign him. I can only imagine the uproar if we don’t.
TRS86
2/24/2011-1:41pm at 1:41 pm (UTC -4)
If it happens and he walks then Sandy will have his work cut out for him and will have to lay out a plan and move very quickly on that plan. Even then some will be ready for the mob.
stickguy
2/24/2011-1:57pm at 1:57 pm (UTC -4)
That move (non-move?) would really be a difinitive statement about what his real plan is. And once he takes that step (assuming, of course, he does let reyes go), he better be very active, very quickly, becasue no way could he just punt Reyes and than not make a number of other significant, related moves.
so far, we really don’t know what his plan is (beyond holding tight, and letting the current bunch sort out). Sort of a plan, but more of a “wait a few months to decide what the real plan is” plan.
kingman 26
2/24/2011-1:22pm at 1:22 pm (UTC -4)
Wow, is this questionable judgment at best; another example of overuse and overemphasis of sabermetrics.
Pelf is young, does not get hurt, has been good two of the last three years, and considering his velocity and development of a splitter, certainly could ultimately be much better than he has been thus far at his best.
Pelf threw 200 IP 2 of the last 3 years with pretty good ERA and WHIP numbers.
A team with an incredibly thin rotation should trade a big, strong, healthy, 27-year-old starter who throws in the 90s and is just now developing a potentially lethal second pitch?
For an A ball prospect that even meaningless projections would say has about a 1% chance of ever being as good as Pelf already is at the MLB level?
Not a chance.
Gotta learn to keep sabermetrics in perspective; otherwise they can be as meaningless and laughable as they can be interesting and valuable.
————————————————————————
“Simply building around the existing core just won’t cut it – that core is declining, not improving – and this group of players has proven repeatedly they aren’t up to winning a championship.”
Pelf is declining? Utterly false.
Pelf is to blame for the failures the last three years?
Sorry, this is just all really silly.
TRS86
2/24/2011-1:36pm at 1:36 pm (UTC -4)
Wow, we have been out there today. Hey at least it’s something to talk about.
Saber does not like Pelf because he does not strike out enough guys. It ignores the fact that for 5/6 months last year he pitched like a top of the rotation pitcher.
Saber rules are just that… rules meant to be broken. I love stats and I am learning sabermetrics however you can’t be one sided with them either. The fact that Pelfrey is young, cheap, goes 200+ innings a year, and has shown flashes of dominance? It would have to be a straight haul of can’t miss players to even consider it. I have no idea why you would do it for a guy that k’s a lot in A ball.
kingman 26
2/24/2011-1:40pm at 1:40 pm (UTC -4)
Must also consider size, strength, and health.
How many starts has he missed as a pro?
metsfan4decades
2/24/2011-1:47pm at 1:47 pm (UTC -4)
I can only remember one. Didn’t they skip a start for him a couple of years ago b/c of a sore shoulder?
TRS86
2/24/2011-1:49pm at 1:49 pm (UTC -4)
Tendinitis in his forearm I think.
TRS86
2/24/2011-1:40pm at 1:40 pm (UTC -4)
Let me ask you this, would you trade Pelfrey straight up for Mark Buehrle? If you say yes then look again. Even if this is Pelfrey’s ceiling, do you not realize how expensive a Buehrle is on the market?
kingman 26
2/24/2011-1:43pm at 1:43 pm (UTC -4)
Pelf’s 5 years younger—and those years are age 27–32.
Pelf had just 33 minor league starts, and hopefully has yet to reach his potential.
He is still among the most valuable members of this team.
It is not his fault Johan has been hurt and missed so much time; just because he is not an ace does not mean he is not really valuable.
TRS86
2/24/2011-1:48pm at 1:48 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed, that’s kind of the point I am trying to make. There would be few if any on the open market next year with the potential, ability and durability of Pelfrey. Not even Buehrle can make that claim.
Prismo
2/24/2011-1:59pm at 1:59 pm (UTC -4)
lol???
How can Buehrle not claim that?
He’s made 30+ starts every season of his career (since 2001), which is mightily impressive.
His lifetime ERA is almost .5 lower than Pelfrey’s.
And how long do we talk about Pelfrey’s potential? What if his potential is a mid-high 3 ERA starter? (which is basically at or slightly better than Buehrle)
TRS86
2/24/2011-2:02pm at 2:02 pm (UTC -4)
Buehrle has already reached his potential. Pelfrey is entering his prime where as Buehrle’s next contract will take him out of it.
I like Buehrle but Pelfrey is basically the same pitcher and seems to get no love even from Mets fans sometimes.
Prismo
2/24/2011-2:08pm at 2:08 pm (UTC -4)
How does Pelf get no love? Everyone loves Big Pelf. He pitched crappy for a large portion of last season, and no one said a word.
Don’t forget that Buehrle is also in the AL.
Prismo
2/24/2011-2:07pm at 2:07 pm (UTC -4)
I know it’s hard to avoid bias, but if you call is as you see it, you’ll agree.
I’m not saying we should make this trade and I’m not down on Pelfrey, but look at the facts.
He’s 27 years old with 3 1/2 full seasons behind him in the majors. At that point, I’d say for the most part we’ve seen what he can do – which is ‘be dominant at times’ and ‘be mediocre at other times.’ He’s a good middle of the rotation starter, but the odds are much higher that he remains there than turns into a full-fledged sub-3.30 ERA ace.
Straight up, Buehrle’s better than Pelfrey. That’s all there is to it.
Again, not saying I would make the trade, just saying this season Buehrle probably puts up better stats.
kingman 26
2/24/2011-2:55pm at 2:55 pm (UTC -4)
I would say that his development of the splitter is the wild card which makes him, at 27, someone who could potentially go from a 2/3 to a 1/2.
An imperfect parallel perhaps, and illegal pitches may have been involved, but at age 30 Mike Scott leaned a new pitch and went from being Pelf-like or worse to 5 years as a true number 1.
CaseStreet
2/24/2011-1:48pm at 1:48 pm (UTC -4)
Can’t do it. $4m is pretty cheap for a top-ish starter. Now if we’re talking sure thing top prospect, then maybe. But for a A ball guy, can’t do it.
Really, though, I’m a believer that the team just needs a healthy season out of its stars and add 1 starter to complement Santana and Pelf. The offense should be good enough.
Then again, I’m a glass half full type of guy.
TRS86
2/24/2011-1:52pm at 1:52 pm (UTC -4)
Right, instead of trading a Buehrle go out and sign one to go with Johan and Pelfrey.
Johan, Pelfrey, Buehrle, Niese and Dickey would be a fine rotation.
CaseStreet
2/24/2011-2:11pm at 2:11 pm (UTC -4)
Any chance CC opts out of his contract and signs w/ Mets?
On the other hand, maybe Mejia learns a 2nd pitch and can jump into the middle of the rotation next year.
metsfan4decades
2/24/2011-2:14pm at 2:14 pm (UTC -4)
Baring any health setbacks, I would be surprised if Mejia is not in the starting rotation next year.
metsfan2011
2/24/2011-3:04pm at 3:04 pm (UTC -4)
a few things:
1) Sabermetrics does not “like” or dislike Mike Pelfrey. Instead, it suggests what we can expect from Pelf going forward. And because of a host of factors, including the fact that Pelf doesn’t strike a lot of guys out, is that he’s going to be a league average pitcher going forward. More specifically, that his performance last season is not indicative of his true talent level. Just as they also tell you that his awful 2009 was not indicative of his true talent level (just in the other direction).
2) To be an elite team, you need elite players. And, if you look at the successful franchises, you need elite players who come up through your organization, either via the draft or trade. The Mets have not developed their own elite starting pitcher (as a Met) since the 1980s. It is not a coincidence that we haven’t won a world series since then.
3) Pelf is very durable. That’s great. He’s also very hittable. If we keep Pelf and he struggles this season, as I think and the stats suggest, is likely, then what? Next year, he’ll be making $5 mil a year and the market for him will be that much smaller. The point of the post was to suggest that there may be a unique opportunity to pry one of the top prospects in the game from the Cards. No, Miller is not a sure thing. But, there’s a chance that he’ll be a front-line starting pitcher.
4) The last thing a GM should take into account is the reaction of the fan base to a trade. A GM gets hired to make the moves he thinks are best. We as fans can comment, complain, and even not buy tickets. But the last regime clearly took the fans point of view into account constantly (think the bagel shop) and look where that got us.
metsfan4decades
2/24/2011-3:36pm at 3:36 pm (UTC -4)
Just reading the comments I guess you can tell how the handful of us feel about this suggestion. No telling though how the majority of the fan base would feel.
I’m willing to bet had Pelfrey been on any other team and was available through a trade, most of us would have spent a fair amount of time discussing what we would have to give up to get him, especially since Johan is out for what might be most of the season.
Decent pitching is always a big commodity. Even if Pelf has reached his ceiling, there will still be a decent market for him. I’ll be very surprised though if he’s one of the first ones shopped this off season.
kingman 26
2/24/2011-3:38pm at 3:38 pm (UTC -4)
Exactly how many successful low A ball pitchers become as good at the MLB level as Mike Pelfrey?
Teams need more then “elite” players to win. The 1986 team was amazing not just due to Hernandez and Carter and Doc and Straw, but also because of amazing depth. Having a Rick Aguilera as 5th starter. Having Howard Johnson on the bench. Having incredible bullpen depth.
Mike Pelfrey as a 3rd or 4th starter in 2012 IF Johan recovers and Mejia and/or Niese fulfill their potential is an excellent 3rd or 4th starter.
Much of what you say in this comment is absolutely correct.
But it does not lessen the completely misguided idea of trading away a successful 27-year-old, durable starter for a low-A ball pitcher.
And pitchers DO become better after several years at the MLB level; If Pelf masters the splitter, he might become significantly better.
What did sabermetric predictors say about Mike Scott in 1984? About RA DIckey in 2009?
metsfan2011
2/24/2011-4:08pm at 4:08 pm (UTC -4)
I would say Johan’s full recovery and Niese fulfilling his potential (I assume you are suggesting that he has potential to be better than he already is) are very big if’s (perhaps why you chose to capitalize “if”). There are a number of pitchers who are as good as Mike Pelfrey. There are very few aces. Miller is someone scouts and sabermetrics people agree has a good chance of becoming such a pitcher. Why not take that chance? Yes, Pelf could master the split, but it’s at least as likely that his sinker (which he admitted disappeared last year) won’t come back. What I’m trying to suggest is how to turn what is at best a .500 club into a championship contender in the near future. The same guys that we tried to win with in ’07, ’08, ’09 and ’10 probably aren’t going to get that done.
kingman 26
2/24/2011-4:14pm at 4:14 pm (UTC -4)
Again, I agree with much of this.
Where I disagree is the point of whether Pelf could still be a significant part of the solution.
No, he is not Lincecum, but how many 27 year olds are there with an equal record of durability and success?
We definitely need a lot more, and I probably would trade just about anyone in this organization pretty willingly outside of Wright, Mejia and Pelf.
I just really see Pelf as being an excellent 3 or 4 in a year or two when we finally have the 1 and 2 spots sealed down.
And believe me, I am disgusted with the last few years; I just think so many other players—performance AND health-wise—should go before Pelf. And I think starters who go 200 IP with mid-3.00 ERAs and decent WHIPs are pretty valuable.
stickguy
2/24/2011-4:16pm at 4:16 pm (UTC -4)
Johan, I have no clue about (he may never come back, and if he does, who the hell knows at what level).
But I don’t really see Neise as a big if, as in will he improve. I think that is a given, based on his talent, as he matures and gains experience.
stickguy
2/24/2011-4:14pm at 4:14 pm (UTC -4)
I agree that they could use some guys like this Miller kid, but they really need to draft them on their own, or trade other MiL excess talent for him. Then try to add to the rotation guys they have.